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“Toward a Regional Security Architecture for Northeast Asia”

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“Toward a Regional Security Architecture for Northeast Asia” 1 A Trilateral Conference on “Toward a Regional Security Architecture for Northeast Asia” Jeju Peace Institute, Jejudo, Korea August 6, 2010 Co-hosted by East Asia Foundation & Korea-Pacific Program at the University of California San Diego Co-sponsored by Office of the Jeju Special Self-Governing Province Jeju National University Jeju International Council Pacific Century Institute East Asia Institute Jeju Peace Institute 2 ▣ Table of Contents Program ……….3~5 Presentation Papers of Session 1……….6 BAE Jong-Yun (Yonsei University)……….7 HAN Intaek (Jeju Peace Institute)……….11 JO Dongho (Ewha Womans University)……… 15 LEE Geun (Seoul National University) ……….19 WOO Jeong-Yeop (Asan Institute) ……….22 YOU Jong-Sung (UC San Diego) ……….25 Presentation Papers of Session 2……….38 Donald Gross (Albright Stonebridge Group) ……….39 Stephan Haggard (UC San Diego) ……….45 JIN Canrong (Renmin University) ……….54 Spencer H. Kim (Pacific Century Institute) ……….57 T.J. Pempel (UC Berkeley) ……….71 Presentation Papers of Session 3……….75 CHUN Chaesung (Seoul National University) ……….76 KO Seong-Joon (Jeju National University) ……….82 John Swenson-Wright (Cambridge University) ……….83 List of Participants……….88 Bios of Participants……….89 3 4 Toward a Regional Security Architecture for Northeast Asia Jeju Peace Institute, Jejudo, Korea August 6, 2010 Hosted by East Asia Foundation Korea-Pacific Program, University of California San Diego Sponsored by Office of the Jeju Special Self-Governing Province Jeju National University Jeju International Council Pacific Century Institute East Asia Institute Jeju Peace Institute The purpose of the conference is to take stock of the current impasse on the peninsula and to assess if and how designs for a broader security architecture might help advance negotiations. These ideas include Four Party Talks and North-South talks with respect to a “peace regime” as well as a larger Six Party architecture (the Peace and Security Mechanism). This conference is scheduled to correspond with the dedication of a Pacific Rim Park on Jeju on August 7th 2010. This park is designed and built by teams of students from around the Pacific Rim, and designed to foster greater awareness of common interests in the region. < Schedule > The objective of the meeting is to have a relatively open discussion, with either short papers or simply presentations. So, it will be conducted in a roundtable format. August 5 (Thur) Arrival of participants 18:00-20:00 Welcoming Dinner hosted by the Jeju Peace Institute (Venue: La Terrasse, The Suites Hotel) Welcoming remark by HAN Tae Kyu (Jeju Peace Institute) 5 August 6 (Fri) Conference Day (Venue: conference room, Jeju Peace Institute) 09:30-09:45 Registration 09:45-10:00 Opening remarks from hosting institutions GONG Ro-Myung (East Asia Foundation) Stephan Haggard (UC San Diego Korea-Pacific Program) 10:00-12:00 Panel 1. The Status of the Six Party Talk Process and Inter-Korean Relations: Korean Perspectives Chair: GONG Ro-Myung (East Asia Foundation) Panelists: BAE Jong-Yun (Yonsei University) HAN Intaek (Jeju Peace Institute) JO Dongho (Ewha Womans University) LEE Geun (Seoul National University) OH Young-hwan (JoongAng Ilbo) WOO Jeong-Yeop (Asan Institute) YOU Jong-Sung (UC San Diego) 12:10-13:50 Working Luncheon hosted by president of the Jeju National University Welcoming Remark by HUH Hyangjin (President, JNU) Luncheon Speech: “Regional Security Architecture for Northeast Asia: A view from R.O.K.” by WON Hee-Ryong (Secretary General, Grand National Party; a member of the National Assembly) 14:00-16:00 Panel 2. The Status of the Six Party Talk Process: Chinese and American Perspectives Chair: MOON Chung-in (Yonsei University) Panelists: Donald Gross (Albright Stonebridge Group) Stephan Haggard (UC San Diego) JIN Canrong (Renmin University) Spencer H. Kim (Pacific Century Institute) Gen. PAN Zhenqiang (China Reform Forum) T.J. Pempel (UC Berkeley) 16:00-16:30 Coffee Break 16:30-18:30 Panel 3. The Way Forward: Four Party Talks, a Peace Regime, and the Regional Security Architecture 6 Chair: Stephan Haggard (UC San Diego) Participants: CHUN Chaesung (Seoul National University) Donald Gross (Albright Stonebridge Group) JIN Canrong (Renmin University) KO Seong-Joon (Jeju National University) MOON Chung-in (Yonsei University) Gen. PAN Zhenqiang (China Reform Forum) T.J. Pempel (UC Berkeley) John Swenson-Wright (Cambridge University) 18:30-18:50 Move to ICC Jeju (5 minutes walking distance) 18:50-20:20 Dinner hosted by governor of the Jeju Special Self-Governing Province (Venue: Grand Hall, The SEAES Hotel & Resort) Welcoming remark by Gov. WOO Keun-Min Dinner speech: “Regional Security Architecture for Northeast Asia: An American view” by U.S. Ambassador Kathleen Stephens 20:20-21:00 Informal Talk for the preparation of the International Advisory Council for the Governor of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province August 7 (Sat) Park Ceremony Day 10:00-12:00 A group walk, following a part of Olle course No.8 starting from the lobby of the Hotel Hana ( Silla HotelPacific LandSeongcheon portJusang JeolliDaepo port) 12:00-13:30 Luncheon hosted by the East Asia Foundation (Venue: Joongmun Deomjang in Seoguipo) 14:00-15:00 All participants are invited to the dedication ceremony of the Pacific Rim Park, which will take place at Daejeong-eup, Sangmo-ri. 15:00-18:00 Group tour to O’sulloc Green Tea Museum, Jeju Glass Castle, and Spirited Garden 18:30-20:30 Dinner hosted by the Korea-Pacific Program, UCSD (Venue: Spirited Garden) August 8 (Sun) Departure Date 7 Session 1 (10:00 ~ 12:00, Aug 6th) “The Status of the Six Party Talk Process and Inter-Korean Relations: Korean Perspectives” . Chair: GONG Ro-Myung (East Asia Foundation) Panelists: Panelists: BAE Jong-Yun (Yonsei University) HAN Intaek (Jeju Peace Institute) JO Dongho (Ewha Womans University) LEE Geun (Seoul National University) OH Young-hwan (JoongAng Ilbo) WOO Jeong-Yeop (Asan Institute) YOU Jong-Sung (UC San Diego) 8 The Incremental Development of Inter-Korean Relations with Backward Movements BAE Jong-Yun Yonsei University Since 2008, inter-Korean relation has been stagnated due to the regime change of South Korea and the suspending of the Six-Party Talks. And after the spring of 2010 when Cheonan warship incident occurred in the West Sea, inter-Korean relation became worse against South Korean’s wish. Some suspected the worst scenarios in Korean peninsula which inter-Korean relation could not recover. In spite of this stagnation of inter-Korean relations, a couple of factors leave us that we still have positive thinking. First of all, inter-Korean relations, which South Korean governments have continually attempted to develop, have not been totally broken off. Unlike the severely weakened political and military relations and contacts, the shrunken economic relation between two Koreas such as Gaesung Industrial Complex, has been continued. And until the summer of 2010, North Korean government is also supporting the operation of Gaesung Industrial Complex. Considering these circumstances, we can state that inter-Korean relation has been developed so much as that inter-Korean relation would not be fundamentally interrupted by an unexpected incident. Although we cannot fully confirm the actual level of its development, the inter-Korean relation has been gradually developed for quietly long time, overcoming the diverse difficulties. After the inter-Korean summit of 2000, there were revolutionary development and changes on the inter-Korean relations in various areas including the talks between two Koreas’ Defense Ministers. Since then, the two Koreas have developed the level of relations which could not be imagined before the summit of 2000. Gaesung Industrial Complex might be the representative example of those changes and also, Gaesung Industrial Complex makes the concept of the inter-Korean relations change from ‘the exchange of two Koreas’ to ‘the cooperation between them’. Before 2000, the basic purpose of South Korea’s unification policy or policy toward North Korea was to increase the numbers of contact with North Korea, and the chances to communicate and exchange with North Korea. For that policy purpose, almost every governments of South Korea had suggested the numerous propositions toward North Korea, such as economic exchanges, cultural exchanges, reunion of separated families, summit talks, and etc. With these propositions, South Korea sometimes had meaningful results of her efforts, like the reunion of separated families, cultural and sports exchanges in 1980s. Thinking the consequences of these successful events, those were just peaceful contacts and humanitarian communications between two Koreas which had never happened in Korean peninsula. However, there were no institutions and regulations followed which could induce two Koreas’ relations into normal state. Those were just events which had a weak sustaining. After 2000, however, based on these accumulated contacts and communications, the relations between the two Koreas had been strengthened and the tendency to institutionalize 9 them has been emerged. And, the economic cooperation between them is the clear evidence. Exceptionally the two Koreas concluded four treaties related with the economic exchanges and cooperation in 2000, such as investment, tax, dispute settlement and liquidation, and exchanged the ratified documents in June 2003 like other countries do. Owing to these treaties and their legal protects, Gaesung Industrial Complex project had successfully begun and could be continued until now, in spite of several crises in the Korean peninsula. And the inter-Korean summit has been repeated with the purposes of developing the two Koreas’ relations and enriching the peaceful situation in Korean peninsula. After Kim Dae-jung regime, Roh Moo-hyun regime had made the summit in 2007. And Lee Myung-bak regime also tried the summit in the spring of 2010 until the Cheonan incident occurred. The substantial exchanges and cooperation of the two Koreas has been continued only for 10 years since inter-Korean relations are getting to change from the ‘the contacts’ to ‘the cooperation’.
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