ALERT LEVEL: NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH FEBRUARY 2006 WARNING EMERGENCY

CONTENTS Summary and implications Summary, seasonal calendar and hazards...... 1 Food security conditions ...... 2 In the weeks leading up to the lean period that is expected to begin in a few months, the food security situation in Niger is generally marked by adequate grain availability Pastoral food security...... 2 and the pursuit of local income-generating economic activities in most of the country’s Admission rates of malnourished children to southern farming regions and border areas with Nigeria. Though occasionally limited feeding centers still falling...... 3 by the gradual drying up of seasonal lakes and ponds, forage access for the animal Probable effects of the bird flu outbreak ...... 3 population of most livestock-raising areas is still more than adequate thanks to the Market trends ...... 4 reported forage surplus coming out of the last growing season. National emergency plan ...... 5 These generally satisfactory food security and grazing conditions are in sharp contrast with the emerging moderate and extreme food insecurity problems in 35 areas scattered throughout the country’s 8 regions, underpinned by structurally high rates of malnutrition.

According to the findings by a recent joint WFP/FAO/SAP/FEWS NET mission, the food-insecure population is estimated at 1,865,550 individuals residing mostly in agropastoral areas, including 1,001,797 extremely food-insecure individuals.

In the wake of the recent finalization of the National Emergency Plan focusing on the implementation of different relief measures, domestic and international food security stakeholders are bolstering their operations aimed at combating food insecurity and malnutrition by strengthening existing program coordination.

Seasonal calendar

Current hazards summary

There are persistent food insecurity problems in areas hard hit by last year’s food crisis and those plagued by repeated grain and forage deficits in various parts of the country such as northern (Tillabery) and portions of Dogon Doutchi (Dosso) and Garhanga (Keita). Conditions in these areas could deteriorate even further with a steady rise in grain prices, localized shortfalls in the availability of grain and milk and the financial problems of households seriously affected by the recent food crisis. Major delays in implementing the National Emergency Plan and in local operations by NGOs in these areas could further aggravate this situation, leading to a deterioration of food security indicators.

Despite short-term drops in admissions of malnourished children to therapeutic feeding centers around the country, global acute malnutrition and severe acute malnutrition rates of over 15% and 2%, respectively, and the seasonal increase in admissions anticipated in the lean period demonstrate the need for emergency relief and sustainable development programs. The component of the National Emergency Plan devoted to malnutrition represents a consensus-based framework for the implementation of short-term mitigating measures. NIGER: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 There are signs of milk shortages in livestock-raising areas affected by the food crisis, which could have a negative impact on the food security and nutritional status of pastoral households heavily dependent on milk as part of their diet.

Following tests of random samples of birds, the government officially announced the presence of bird flu in Niger, with confirmed cases of the disease reported in department () bordering on Nigeria. There is also strong suspicion of the presence of bird flu in Gouré (Zinder), N’Guigmi () and Birnin Konni () departments. A bird flu outbreak in Niger could impair household and child health and nutrition by significantly reducing protein intake, undermining sources of income related to poultry sales and causing members of poor households to lose sources of small-scale employment associated with the poultry industry.

Food security conditions

Though this year’s lean period is still a few months away, the food insecurity map is beginning to take shape, in line with Figure 1: Situation in food-insecure areas trends in different indicators.

While scattered throughout all regions of the country, this year, as in the past, most food-insecure areas are concentrated in the country’s agropastoral belt, in which there are a number of negative factors at play such as grain prices that are generally higher than in the south, pockets of grain deficits and a higher incidence of economic repercussions from the recent food crisis.

On the whole, with the relative abundance of natural forage in livestock-raising areas and reasonably good prices on livestock markets, livelihood conditions for pastoral households are still satisfactory, except in localized forage- deficit areas and in areas where losses of livestock and shortages of milk are undermining household sources of food and income.

In the south, the food security situation and nutritional status Source: SIMA (Agricultural Market Information System), SAP (National Early of the population of the country’s farm belt is still Warning System, UNICEF; Graphic by FEWS NET problematic. There are a number of both positive and negative factors at play in this part of the country. The main factors include surplus grain and production and a long border with Nigeria, engendering regular cross-border trade and economic and business activities that provide sources of income and small- scale employment for poor households. However, this area is beleaguered by stubbornly high prices despite good availability, unshakably high malnutrition rates and the economic repercussions of a bird flu panic justified by the presence of this disease in virtually all Nigerian states bordering on Niger.

Pastoral food security: localized shortages of milk

The quantity of milk available for household consumption in certain parts of livestock-raising areas such as (Tahoua) is well below normal. The areas in question are all areas whose animal population was decimated by the food crisis raging over the period from April through September of last year. This finding, which is corroborated by information furnished by the NGO Veterinarians Without Borders, was made by the OFDA Regional Advisor during a recent tour of Abalak and Keita, accompanied by FEWS NET’s own country representative. According to these sources, the milk shortage is a result of the inability of organically weak female animals to reproduce during their usual breeding period. The rare births in these areas mean less milk production by female animals.

The limited availability of milk for household consumption could reduce protein intake, particularly by children in affected households, and curtail cheese production, which is generally used by herders as a substitute for liquid milk during the lean period. This, in turn, could trigger a deterioration of food security and nutritional state of this population group during the period from March through September of this year.

2 NIGER: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 Admission rates to therapeutic feeding centers still falling, with food security stakeholders mobilizing for the months ahead

The number of admissions of malnourished children reported by practically all nutritional rehabilitation centers around the country has been falling since October of Figure 2: Trends in the number of last year due a combination of cyclical factors such as an improvement in food admissions of children suffering from availability, greater household economic wellbeing and the release of mothers from severe malnutrition in Keita and Abalak farm chores, giving them more free time.

According to the NGO Action Against Hunger, the 11% drop in the average number of admissions in the Abalak and Keita (Tahoua) service areas between the first week of January and the second week of February of this year is holding steady (Figure 2).

Anticipating a normal seasonal upsurge in severe and moderate malnutrition during the upcoming lean period, domestic and international food security stakeholders are considering implementing programs that focus on providing treatment for children and long-term assistance to health authorities. Source: Action Against Hunger; Graphic by FEWS Probable effects of the confirmed bird flu presence in Niger NET

Confirmed bird flu outbreaks in Magaria (Zinder) and a strong Figure 3: Area with confirmed cases of bird flu: Magaria suspicion of the presence of the disease in Gouré, N’Guigmi and department Birnin Konni departments have mobilized the government of Niger and its food security partners, with the focus on the implementation of health control measures, bird surveillance and awareness-building.

Recent developments have prompted the establishment of infected zones and security zones as part of the implementation of health control measures.

All poultry in the infected zone in Magaria are being systematically slaughtered and their owners are being compensated by the authorities (Figure 3). Poultry markets in areas to be permanently designated as security zones (Birnin Konni and N’Guigmi) are under surveillance, the transportation and movement of poultry is banned and all poultry imports from Nigeria are being destroyed.

The bird flu outbreak in Niger could weaken the national economy which, to some extent, is dependent on the poultry industry, whose importance is reflected in annual poultry-related needs estimated at 23.7 million units of poultry and 300 million eggs.

The slump in poultry sales and losses of jobs as a result of the collapse of the poultry market could significantly impair the sources of income of poor households which, in general, are forced to suffer the effects of cyclical and structural factors associated with the pre-harvest lean period between April and Source: Niger Animal Health Network (Réseau SANI); Graphic by FEWS September. NET

The avoidance of poultry in the current climate of fear could cause adults as well as children to suffer from protein deficiencies, weakening their nutritional state.

Field-level operations mounted by the government and its food security partners are providing diagnostic kits, protective equipment and support and assistance and are implementing strict health control measures.

3 NIGER: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006 Market trends: sharp rise in grain prices, steady improvement in the price of cash crops

Grain markets

Four of the country’s six major urban markets monitored by the Agricultural Figure 4: Trends in prices Market Information System (SIMA) reported the steepest rise in millet prices (October 2005 - February 2006) since the harvest in October of last year during this past month.

Thus, February prices on the Dosso and Maradi markets rose 7% et 11%, respectively, from the month of January, compared with increases of 4% and 0%, respectively, on the same markets between December and January (Figure 4).

The average price of millet in February was comparable to the figure for last year, a year marked by a full-fledged food crisis and spiraling grain prices. The price of millet in , Dosso and Tillabéry in February of this year was actually higher than at the same time last year (Figure 5).

This could be the beginning of the steep upward trend in grain prices Source: SIMA (Agricultural Market Information System); characteristic of this time of year. Current movements in prices are driving up Graphic by FEWS NET the cost of food just as households are drawing down or exhausting their food Figure 5: Inter annual trends in millet prices reserves, forcing them to turn to local markets. (February 2002 - 2006) Domestic and regional market monitoring measures will need to be considered as the basis for promoting more cross-border trade, shoring up grain traders and cooperatives, establishing trade channels between surplus and deficit areas and arranging for proximity sales of grain at affordable prices.

Cash crops (, sesame, chufa nuts)

This past agropastoral season produced good harvests of cash crops representing an important source of household income.

After a period of falling prices, crop prices are showing a sizeable improvement, which is helping to strengthen the purchasing power of farmers while tangibly improving their grain access (Figure 6).

Livestock markets Source: SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Figure 6: Trends in prices for cash crops After taking a nose dive during last year’s lean period, prices for livestock (cowpeas, sesame and chufa nuts) have rebounded since the harvest thanks to a large forage surplus. The cost of a male sheep in Zinder rose 14% between August and October of last year. Livestock prices continued to climb over the period between October and December thanks to plentiful supplies of forage and water, resulting in a tangible improvement in terms of trade from the standpoint of pastoralists. December prices in Maradi and Zinder were up by 19% and 13%, respectively, from the month of October.

A herder selling a male sheep back in August of last year was able to purchase a sack of millet and make a 750 CFAF profit. In February of this year, the same herder could trade his sheep for 2-1/2 sacks of millet.

The slight erosion in terms of trade for sheep/millet between December and February is due in large part to the increasingly steep hikes in millet prices reported by markets around the country.

The good forage supplies in most livestock-raising areas in February of this Source: SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger year are responsible for local pastoralists and their families finding themselves in a noticeably more food secure and in a better financial situation compared with the same month of a normal year and, in particular, with February of 2005. However, households whose livestock herds were decimated by the food crisis, concentrated primarily in and departments, are still experiencing food access problems and, thus, are urgently in need of the relief programs envisaged under the country’s National Emergency Plan. 4 NIGER: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2006

Figure 7: Trends in prices for male sheep Figure 8: Terms of trade: price of 100 kg millet (August 2005 - February 2006) compared to 1 male sheep in Tahoua (August 2005 - February 2006)

Source: SIMB (Livestock Market Information System); Graphic by FEWS NET Source: SIMB; Graphic by FEWS NET

Consensus-based emergency plan

The National Emergency Plan should help ease food insecurity and lower malnutrition rates between February and the end of the harvest season in October of this year. The goal is to meet 40% of the food needs of the country’s 1,865,550 food-insecure inhabitants, this reaching about 106,600 food-insecure households.

The focus of the plan is on shoring up 400 grain banks, marketing 20,000 MT of grain at affordable prices and distributing 30,000 MT of free grain supplies, as dictated by food security conditions.

Programs designed to combat malnutrition and child mortality focus on the treatment of 500,000 children, including 56,854 children suffering from severe malnutrition and 443,146 children with moderate malnutrition, the distribution of supplementary foods, nutritional surveillance, awareness-building campaigns targeted at parents and institution-building activities in national health centers.

Non-food aid is designed to protect existing forage supplies, provide targeted assistance for the rebuilding of household livestock herds and strengthen national food security reserves with 50,000 MT worth of physical inventory and the equivalent of 60,000 MT worth of funding.

The effectiveness of field-level operations hinges on how soon the plan can be implemented, the type of coordination provided, and on maintaining the current consensus-based framework through the month of October. The plan should be targeted at households forced to run up large debts during last year’s food crisis, households having lost a large portion of their herds and residents of targeted food- insecure areas.

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