Climate-Ready Victoria: Gippsland, November 2015
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CLIMATE-READY VICTORIA GIPPSLAND How climate change will affect the Gippsland region and how you can be climate-ready The Gippsland region has already GIPPSLAND HAS BEEN GETTING WARMER AND DRIER. become warmer and drier – a climate IN THE FUTURE THE REGION CAN EXPECT: trend likely to continue into the future. temperatures to continue more hot days and Local residents, businesses and to increase year round warm spells communities are changing the way fewer frosts less rainfall in winter and spring they do things in response. Getting climate-ready involves understanding more frequent and more harsher fire weather and how climate change is likely to affect intense downpours longer fire seasons you and your region, and working increased frequency and height rising sea level of extreme sea level events out ways to adapt. Everyone can contribute to the Gippsland region’s warmer and more acidic oceans climate-ready future. HOW WILL THESE CHANGES AFFECT YOU, AND WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT THEM? This publication highlights the impacts climate change will have on the Gippsland region. It gives examples of how people are already becoming climate-ready, with links to more detailed information. While this publication is about adapting to climate change, reducing your carbon emissions by reducing energy use and switching to renewable energy sources is also important in getting climate-ready. For more information on reducing your emissions, visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au. OUR CHANGING CLIMATE Omeo GIPPSLAND AT A GLANCE local government EAST GIPPSLAND 2 WELLINGTON Mallacoota 6 areas 41 375 km 18% Orbost of the Bairnsdale approximately state BAW BAW Lakes Entrance Morwell Sale 259 000 Drouin 5% of the state Moe Loch Sport Warragul Traralgon Phillip Churchill Island Korumburra Leongatha Seaspray Wonthaggi Foster BASS COAST Inverloch SOUTH LATROBE GIPPSLAND RECENT CLIMATE IT’S GETTING WARMER AND DRIER Over the past 100 years, global surface air temperatures have The Gippsland region has mild to warm summers with average risen by almost 1°C. Both the atmosphere and the oceans have maximum temperatures currently around 21 to 25°C. Winters warmed. Human activity is causing climate change, through our are mild near the coast with average maximum temperatures of release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, 12 to 15°C. Further inland, it is cooler in the foothills and cold in land use change and agriculture. Atmospheric concentrations of the mountains where there are frequent frosts and some snow. carbon dioxide are now more than 40% higher than they were Rainfall is comparatively high, but varies across the region. before industrialisation. The southern flanks of the Great Dividing Range, the Strzelecki In the Gippsland region, the rate of warming has increased since Ranges and the south-western and eastern parts of the 1960. region receive high rainfalls of 1000 to over 1600 mm a year, On average, rainfall has declined since the 1950s, especially in which falls as snow on the higher peaks in winter. Annual autumn. The harsh Millennium Drought (1996 to 2009) followed rainfall decreases to less than 600 mm in the central part of the wet decades of the 1950s and 1970s. the region due to the rain shadow of Wilsons Promontory and the Strzelecki Ranges. East Coast Lows can deliver heavy Sea level today is approximately 225 mm higher than in 1880. downpours across eastern Gippsland and parts of western Sea surface temperatures have risen faster here than elsewhere Gippsland. on the Australian coastline. This is already affecting marine life. For more information about some of the drivers of Victoria’s climate, visit the Climatedogs website. 1.4-1.6oC Temperature change in the 1.2-1.4oC Gippsland region CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE since 1950 o Our climate varies – it always has and always will. This 1.0-1.2oC 0.8-1.0 C climate variability means that some periods are cooler and wetter than average (as was the case in the 1970s), while others are hotter and drier (such as during the Millennium Drought). However, due to climate change, the long-term average is changing. Future climate will be different from that in the past. 200-300 mm 300-400 mm 100-200 mm 0-100 mm Rainfall change in the Gippsland region since 1950 2 HOW DO WE GET CLIMATE-READY? GIPPSLAND CLIMATE RISKS Being climate-ready in the Gippsland Omeo MORE HARSHER region involves knowing the climate days of fire weather extreme heat EAST GIPPSLAND risks and impacts for the region, and WELLINGTON Mallacoota Orbost making changes so that we can take Bairnsdale advantage of the opportunities and LESS MORE BAW BAW Lakes Entrance frequent and intense Morwell Sale rainfall heavy downpours RISING Drouin Moe Loch Sport reduce the negative impacts. sea level Warragul Traralgon Phillip Churchill Island Korumburra Leongatha Seaspray Wonthaggi Foster BASS COAST Inverloch SOUTH LATROBE GETTING CLIMATE-READY AT A GLANCE GIPPSLAND Primary Infrastructure Tourism Health and Environment production community i rainfall h sea level h temperature h heatwaves i rainfall h temperature h fire weather h fire weather h flooding h fire weather h hot days h flooding h heatwaves h fire weather h hot days h fire weather h hot days i snow cover h solar radiation h sea level h heatwaves h ocean acidification KEY CLIMATE RISKS KEY CLIMATE h storm surges Reduced water Increased flood Increased threats to More stress on health Amplification of existing security damage tourism infrastructure and emergency threats to flora and fauna services Changed distribution Increased maintenance Damage to popular Changes to habitat of pests and diseases costs environmental sites More heat-related Altered disturbance regimes deaths, particularly Farm business Increased disruption to Reduced snow depths among the elderly and Changing dynamics of affected by bushfire services and shorter season disadvantaged invasive species Changes in pasture Risks to tourists Mental health effects Contraction of alpine growth unfamiliar with ecosystems POTENTIAL IMPACTS conditions Changes in disease occurrence Reduced snow depth and cover Manage soil to retain Construct floating Develop year-round Improve flood warning Protect refuge areas for stubble, carbon and jetties tourism options systems fish and aquatic fauna water Relocate Seaspray Multi-skill staff Develop property fire Establish vegetation on Adopt flexible grazing Surf Life Saving Club management plans stream and river banks Implement emergency techniques to maintain Insure public assets planning for tourist Use existing social Maintain groundcover groundcover sites networks to support Consider future climate Protect high quality Provide shelter for vulnerable community and sea level rise Prepare for changing remnants, and conduct stock from extreme members when locating new seasonal demand targeted revegetation heat infrastructure Implement/use rural Increase on-farm mental health care CLIMATE-READY ACTIONS CLIMATE-READY storage of water programs Change crops and pasture varieties 3 GETTING CLIMATE-READY HOW CLIMATE-READY ARE YOU? CLIMATE-READY NOW Getting climate-ready is an ongoing process, and there’s no Victorians have always been good at managing the ups and single recipe for success. Many of the risks we face are not downs of climate. Now that we have a clearer picture of the new. However, there are likely to be changes in duration, way in which climate is likely to change in future, there’s lots frequency and severity of some weather events, as well as that we can do to become climate-ready. Decisions we make changes to the climate. now will affect how well we cope with the changing climate, To determine what’s important to you and what climate change which in turn will affect future economic and employment responses might work for your situation, consider these conditions. Decisions range from simple to complex, and questions: some will need to be made sooner than others. Your decisions may depend on the local climate in your part of the region. c How might you – your health, property, business, community, industry – be affected by: There are many good examples of communities in your region and in Victoria preparing for and adapting to • higher temperatures and more frequent heatwaves? climate change. The links you directly to the source or • less winter and spring rainfall, more time in drought, visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au for a full list of links. decreased water availability or flooding? • sea level rise, increased height of extreme sea level events and coastal erosion? • harsher fire weather? PRIMARY PRODUCTION c How might your services, suppliers, clients or customers The agribusiness sector is a significant employer and major be affected? driver of the region’s economy, with over a third of Gippsland’s business involved in agriculture and fishing. Lakes Entrance c Are you making any long-term decisions now that will be has the largest commercial fishing fleet in Victoria. impacted by future climate change? The dairy industry in Gippsland produces 21% of Australia’s c What action could you take now to prepare? What are milk, with a large dairy-processing sector within the region. others in your region doing? What benefits have they Gippsland also has a significant grazing industry based experienced? predominantly on beef, but also wool and prime lamb production. Horticultural production is significant and c Can you prioritise actions that also have other benefits, increasing, including potatoes and asparagus in the west, other such as emissions reduction, financial, community or vegetable production across the region and boutique wineries. environmental advantages? The sector is highly sensitive to reduced water supply and c Does climate change present any opportunities you can increased temperatures. Intensive animal industries will take advantage of? need to provide increased protection for stock from extreme temperatures. Pest and disease incidence is likely to change. The information, case studies and links in this brochure can help get you started.