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Internasjonal Politikk [3·04] Internasjonal politikk USA – imperium eller hegemon? USAs og Russlands spill i Georgia Bill & Ted, Dr. Strangelove og amerikansk utenrikspolitikk Fra Radio Free Europe til al-Hurra Valget i USA 2004 Nr. 3 - 2004 62. Årgang Norwegian Institute Norsk of International Utenrikspolitisk Affairs Institutt Utgiver: NUPI Copyright: © Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt 2004 Redaktør: Birgitte Kjos Fonn Bokmeldingsred.: Halvard Leira Red.sekr.: Jan Risvik Red.utvalg: Torgeir Larsen, Henrik Thune, Bent Sofus Tranøy, Ståle Ulriksen Red.råd: Helge Blakkisrud, Torkel Brekke, Laila Bokhari, Karin Dokken, Gro Holm, Lars Mjøset, Iver B. Neumann, Knut G. Nustad, Jarle Simensen, Stein Tønnesson, Nils Morten Udgaard Manus: Sendes elektronisk til: [email protected] Vennligst bruk malen på 3. omslagsside. Alle synspunkter i Internasjonal politikk står for forfatternes regning og kan ikke tillegges Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Internasjonal politikk er Indeksert i The International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, International Political Science Abstracts og Gale Directory of Publications and Broadcast Media Internasjonal politikk: 4 hefter i året Abonnement 2002: kr. 330 (innen Norden) kr. 450 (utenfor Norden) Enkelthefter: kr. 95 (+ porto/eksp.) Bestilling: http://www.nupi.no/PubNor/pub-set-no.htm Tel.: 22 99 40 00 Fax: 22 36 21 82 E-post: [email protected] Internett: www.nupi.no Adresse: Postboks 8159 Dep. 0033 Oslo Besøksadresse: C.J. Hambros plass 2 Design: Ole Dahl-Gulliksen Trykk: Hegland trykkeri as, Flekkefjord Foto: Scanpix og Indra Øverland [3] Innhold 299 Forord: En skinnende by på høyden? Birgitte Kjos Fonn 303 Amerikas fire fremtider Torbjørn Knutsen 325 Det geopolitiska spelet om Georgien Lena Juntti Aktuelt: 347 Den moralske renhet og dens fiender Jennifer Bailey 369 Fra Radio Free Europe til al-Hurra: amerikansk opinionsdiplomati fra suksess til fiasko Birgitte Kjos Fonn & Anders G. Romarheim 389 Jevnt løp i presidentvalget 2004 David Mauk 403 Etter Beslan Jakub M. Godzimirski 413 Kyoto-protokollen – et mislykket prosjekt? Bjart Holtsmark & Knut H. Alfsen Bokspalte: 435 Den nye imperialismedebatten: fire bidrag Essay av Stein S. Eriksen 456 The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century Kristin Haugevik 460 Imperiet på godt og vondt Andreas Løvold 465 America’s Mission. The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century Torbjørn Knutsen 471 The Disjunctive Empire of International Relations Benjamin de Carvalho 474 Makt og intensjon – USAs utenrikspolitikk overfor Russland og det tidligere Sovjetunionen Geir Flikke 482 Iraks fødsel og gjenfødsel Henrik Thune 485 Understanding Religious Violence. Thinking outside the Box of Terrorism Laila Bokhari 489 Summaries En skinnende by på høyden? De siste årene har vi sett en betydelig økt interesse for verdens mektigste stat og for dens utenrikspolitiske veivalg. Nå om dagen knytter mye av interessen seg til om en president som blant annet har innført en forkjøpsdoktrine og iverksatt to omstridte kriger et- ter 11. september 2001, vil bli gjenvalgt, og hva det vil innebære fremover. Vil dagens politikk fortsette med George W. Bush? Hvor- dan vil USAs adferd i verden eventuelt bli med John Kerry som president? CNN har nylig kalt valget et «verdensvalg der verden ikke har stemmerett». Spørsmålet om hva verdens mektigste stat bruker sine maktres- surser til og hva slags rolle USA spiller i verden, er mer aktuelt enn noensinne. Spørsmålet har ført til en strøm av nye bøker og arti- kler som drøfter akkurat dette, og i den første artikkelen i dette nummeret av Internasjonal politikk skisserer professor Torbjørn Knutsen fire perspektiver på USAs rolle etter den kalde krigens slutt. Det første foreslår at USA er et imperium, det andre hevder at USA er en undertrykker og utsuger, det tredje fremholder at USA er en frigjører og demokratisk fredsgarantist, mens det fjerde ar- gumenterer for at USA er en hegemon. Knutsen søker å sette lan- dets utenrikspolitikk inn i et større perspektiv, samt å rydde litt opp i begrepsforvirringen som hersker i dagens debatt. Et utvalg av de mange publikasjonene som de siste årene har tatt for seg disse spørsmålene, omtales ellers i dette nummerets bokspalte, ikke minst i NUPI-forsker Stein S. Eriksens bokessay om bidragene fra Robert Kagan, Michael Ignatieff, Chalmers John- son og Michael Mann. Offisielt mener supermakten selv at den først og fremst er fri- gjører og demokratisk fredsgarantist. Mens andre debatterer USAs posisjon, holder altså amerikanske myndigheter fast på at USA har en misjon eller et «kall». Slike tanker finnes helt tilbake til de tidlige bosetterne i New England. Massachussetts første guvernør, John Winthrop, hadde for eksempel en forestilling om Amerika som den «skinnende byen på høyden» – et forbilde for verden for øvrig. Førsteamanuensis Jennifer Bailey ved NTNU forfølger disse spørsmålene videre og spør hva som kan forklare så vel den spesi- elle kursen i amerikansk utenrikspolitikk som den standhaftige po- pulariteten til en president som George W. Bush. I essays form argumenterer hun for at begge deler kan forstås ut fra dypstruktu- rene i amerikansk politisk tenkning, som både er strengt dualistisk og med en slags besettelse om renhet. Dette skaper et skarpt skil- le mellom Det gode og Det onde, Det hvite og Det svarte, og på denne bakgrunn kan man forstå mye av det amerikanske «kall» i verden, skriver Bailey. 11. september 2001 kom som et sjokk på en nasjon som både så på seg selv som et forbilde og en verdensleder. «Why do they hate us so much?» lød en av president Bushs umiddelbare reaksjoner, og med senere krigføring i Afghanistan og Irak har USAs popula- ritet langt fra økt. Dette omdømmesjokket fikk USA til å hente frem igjen virkemidler som hadde vært vellykte under den kalde krigen – mediesatsinger som hører under begrepet public diplomacy eller opinionsdiplomati. I kommunistepoken hadde blant annet Radio Free Europe og Radio Liberty hatt stor betydning for å vinne «the hearts and minds» i østblokken for vestlige verdier. Men oppfølg- erne rettet mot den muslimske verden, blant annet tv-kanalen al- Hurra, har fått en blandet mottakelse. NUPI-vit.ass. Anders G. Romarheim og IPs redaktør stiller spørsmål ved om opinionsdi- plomati, som ofte kan klassifiseres som propaganda med kjent av- sender, i det hele tatt vil virke dersom mottakeren ikke er positiv i utgangspunktet. Det USA som går til valg 2. november, er på mange måter en annen nasjon enn den som valgte president George W. Bush for fire år siden. Ifølge den amerikanske journalisten David Iverson, som holdt et seminar på NUPI 24. september i år, ble ikke ordet terrorisme nevnt en eneste gang under valgdebattene i 2000. I dag er myndighetenes håndtering av terrorisme nærmest sidestilt med landets økonomi som den viktigste valgkampsaken. Dette påvirker til og med fordelingen av kjønn på parti: Kvinnene har tradisjonelt ofte valgt demokratisk,og under de siste valgene fikk en viktig gruppe av Clinton og Gores kvinnelige velgere navnet «soccer moms». I dag tyder rundspørringer på at et stort antall kvinner vil stemme på den kandidaten de tror best vil beskytte dem og familiene deres mot terrorisme, noe som har gitt dem oppnavnet «security moms» blant flere kommentatorer. En måned før valget svinger prognosene, og det er vanskelig å spå utfallet, selv om de fleste holder en knapp på at Bush vinner. Derimot er det mulig å identifisere områder og spørs- mål som kan avgjøre valget, slik førsteamanuensis i American Ci- vilization ved NTNU, David Mauk, gjør i artikkelen «Jevnt løp i presidentvalget 2004». Også Russlands interessesfære er – naturlig nok – påvirket av Berlinmurens fall og USAs forholdsvis nye status som eneste su- permakt. USA har involvert seg stadig mer i det tidligere sovjetom- rådet, noe som blant annet har vist seg i landets store investeringer i den energirike kaspiske regionen, skriver hovedfagsstudent i stats- vitenskap, Lena Juntti. To ulike amerikanskstøttede rørledningspro- sjekter er i gang for å transportere olje og gass fra Aserbajdsjan til Tyrkia via den kaukasiske staten Georgia. Georgia har dermed fått en viktig strategisk rolle å spille. Dette har ført til en geopolitisk konkurranse mellom USA og Russland om innflytelse i Georgia. Russland ønsker å beholde sin posisjon som transittland i området, men ønsker også å anvende Georgia i en slik rolle i en nord–sør- transport av russisk energi. USAs grunner for å støtte en øst–vest- transport er ikke utelukkende økonomiske, men til dels betinget av at amerikanerne ser en geostrategisk gevinst i å føre en oppdem- mingspolitikk mot Russland i regionen. Dermed er Georgia ett av flere land som er blitt åsted for et geopolitisk spill og en rivalisering mellom stormaktene. To bidrag til dette nummeret, artiklene om Beslan og Kyoto, har ikke direkte med USA å gjøre, men berøringspunktene er der. Russ- land fører sin egen krig mot terror. Selv om forsøket på å slå ned oppstanden i Tsjetsjenia startet lenge før USAs krig mot terror, henter Russlands president Vladimir Putin i dag næring fra sin kol- lega George W. Bush når han håndterer Tsjetsjenia-konflikten. NUPI-forsker Jakub M. Godzimirski går gjennom tragedien i Be- slan, der han blant annet peker på de mange informasjonsmessige feilgrepene som i sum kanskje bidro til det tragiske utfallet. Ett av disse var russernes forsøk på å skape inntrykk av at gisselaksjonen i Beslan var utført av terrorister med internasjonal tilknytning. Pu- tin forsøker å legitimere sin hårdhendte politikk overfor de tsjetsjen- ske separatistene med å vise til den globale kampen mot terror, og varslet et sett med nye autoritære tiltak etter Beslan. Nummerets siste artikkel tar for seg viktige miljøspørsmål. Kyoto-protokollen er en miljøavtale som antakelig vil ha svært liten miljøeffekt, og en hovedårsak til det er at USA i tråd med sin øken- de tendens til alenegang har trukket seg fra avtalen. Et umiddelbart problem er i tillegg at overgangsøkonomiene, spesielt Russland og Ukraina, er tildelt nasjonale kvoter som ikke reflekterer at disse landene har opplevd omfattende utslippsreduksjoner etter kommu- nismens sammenbrudd.
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