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Global System on the Brink Atlantic Council BRENT SCOWCROFT CENTER PRIMAKOV INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal Joint Study by the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative and the Russian Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal Joint Study by the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative and the Russian Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations EDITORS Dr. Mathew Burrows Professor Alexander Dynkin Director Director Strategic Foresight Initiative Primakov Institute of World Brent Scowcroft Center on International Economy and International Relations Security, Atlantic Council (IMEMO) Atlantic Council IMEMO Mathew Burrows and Vasily Mikheev, Alexey Arbatov, Natalia Ivanova, Robert Manning (key authors) Alexey Kuznetsov, Feodor Voitolovsky, Givi Machavariani (key authors) Aparajitha Vadlamannati, Diya Li, Meghan Check, Peter Engelke, Bjorn Bolte (contributors) Sergey Afontsev, Nadezhda Arbatova, Ivan Danilin, Alexander Fedorovsky, Sergey Lukonin, Yakov Mirkin, Vitaly Shvydko, Vyacheslav Trubnikov, Stanislav Zhukov (contributors) ISBN: 978-1-61977-979-2 This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Indepen- dence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. December 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 1 Executive Summary 3 The Changing Face of Globalization 4 War: Potential for Major State Conflict 4 The Global Economy: Growing Polycentrism 9 Energy Sector: Growing Uncertainties 12 New Technologies: Generator of Social Disruption 12 Regional Trends 13 Another World Order is Inevitable, but What Kind? 16 Recommendations 18 GLOBAL SYSTEM ON THE BRINK: PATHWAYS TOWARD A NEW NORMAL FOREWORD Dear Reader, We’re delighted to present The Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal, a joint study by the Strategic Foresight Initiative of the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). The study began before the onset of the recent crisis in cooperation between Russia and the West. US-Russian relations, but is even more relevant today as we seek to avoid a greater conflict and achieve a new normal of In keeping with previous forecasting works published by the Atlantic Council and IMEMO, the study examines current trends and potential scenarios for global developments over the next twenty years. The goal is not to predict the future so much as to highlight the challenges and opportunities ahead. The crisis in US-Russian relations is only one facet of a world at an increasingly dangerous inflection point. Despite the rapid globalization of the past few decades, which promised withcooperation nationalist, and religious,integration, and the historical-psychological potential for major state overtones. conflict is on the rise due to deep fragmentation within and between societies. The old confrontation between capitalism and communism has given way to conflicts of moral values The crisis in relations between Russia and the West from 2013 to 2015 shows that economic interests and cooperation The East-West situation differs considerably from that of the second half of the Cold War era (mid-1960s to mid-1980s), in international security are not sufficient to prevent conflict based on political, geopolitical, and ideological ambition. followingwhen tacit the “untouchable” end of the Cold geopolitical War—a time spheres when of theinfluence big powers were avoidedclearly delineated, serious differences, and other often zones because were not Russia worth and the Chinarisk of acquiesced a direct military to Western conflict. leadership. The situation from 2015 through 2035 will be far different from the first twenty-five years The worst outcome would be the emergence of a new bipolarity, pitting a group of states centered around China and Russia against the United States and some European and Asian allies. A somewhat less dangerous outcome would be a still exist. global breakup into regional blocs and spheres of influence, in which the potential for ad hoc global cooperation would StrengtheningWhile we particularly the nuclear want nonproliferation to underline the regime seriousness and the of ourTreaty current on the situation, Non-Proliferation the study alsoof Nuclear emphasizes Weapons the (NPT) requiresopportunities consensus that exist among for allboth NPT our signatories countries (currentlyand the rest 190 of thecountries), world should including we findcountries ways tothat narrow could differences.violate the treaty. This would be very hard to achieve under the best conceivable circumstances, but this will be totally impossible in an environment of confrontation among the great powers. During the period from 2015 to 2035, more threshold countries are likely to emerge, and in the worst-case scenario, a chain reaction could occur, in which nuclear proliferation leads to otheran expansion countries of isthe equally “nuclear important club” from on othernine to areas fifteen of sharedor more interest, members. such This as counterterrorism;would make the use opposition of nuclear to weapons religious- in a regional conflict or their acquisition by terrorists much more likely. Cooperation among Russia, the United States, and global commons, including a peaceful outer space. Such cooperation is perhaps only possible if tensions do not escalate, andbased the violent major extremism; powers keep global their economic competition growth under and stringent financial control stability; in other combatting realms. climate Although change; looking and out safeguarding twenty years the to the future might not seem like a productive way to deal with the current East-West crisis, thinking about the kind of world we want to bequeath to the next generation may actually be the best way to start the process of overcoming the conflicts and harmful differences of today. Frederick Kempe Alexander Dynkin President and CEO Director Atlantic Council Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations ATLANTIC COUNCIL 1 GLOBAL SYSTEM ON THE BRINK: PATHWAYS TOWARD A NEW NORMAL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY particularly if it pulls down growth and puts heavy point. Ironically, much of the danger ahead stems from theThe success world is of at the an post-Worldincreasingly War dangerous II international inflection system: in the two decades since the end of the Cold War, pressure on public finances. By 2035, an increasing portion of the world’s financial resources will be goods, and people—has connected economies, people, concentrated in regional clusters away from the US-UK andglobalization—the nations more tightly transborder than ever flow before of information, and led to money,the • financialThe global hub. energy sector will experience price and massive ongoing shift of wealth and population from West investment uncertainty. A peaking in global oil consumption is likely to happen by 2035-40, but could opportunities, but it also poses serious risks. As the world be accelerated if the Chinese economy slows down becomesto East and more North interdependent to South. Globalization and interconnected, provides many a faster than expected and India’s economy fails to reach plethora of state and nonstate actors—some of which see high growth rates. • New technologies, such as robotics and automation, power, creating greater instability and fragmentation. themselves as marginalized by globalization—are vying for will take more jobs away from people, triggering Looking out to 2035: a social and political backlash against established national and multilateral institutions. Over time, • growing domestic inequalities may be lessened as new, between the United States/NATO and Russia, and China well-paid jobs are created and education and skills The risk of conflict among the big powers, including increase. second-tier powers, such as those between India and Pakistan,and its neighbors, could spill is overgrowing, into andnuclear conflicts war. Sectarianbetween Given the depth and breadth of the changes that will transform the global landscape, a new international order and Arabs are worsening, potentially sparking a major is inevitable. However, no hegemonic force can shape warconflicts along between religious, Sunnis ethnic, and and Shias, political and betweenlines. The Kurds the global system, as was the case in the post-World War growth of armed Islamic extremism as an answer to II order, and no consensus exists on what kind of new growing external interventions is another long-term international order should be established. Nevertheless, opportunities to mitigate or avoid the risks ahead do been at a historic low since the end of the Cold War; exist. The international community’s shared interests in itsdestabilizing reversal is factor.the single The biggestincidence threat of conflicts to longer-term has confronting and mastering an array of global challenges far outweigh any differences. We hope that knowledge of the forces eroding the foundations of the post-Cold War • globalDeveloping economic countries growth will and increasingly globalization drive itself. the international system will serve as a guide in developing global economy. The Chinese
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