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Scorched Earth: How Will Changes in the Strength of the Vegetation Sink To EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Open Access Open Access Open Access Advances in Annales Nonlinear Processes Geosciences Geophysicae in Geophysics Open Access Open Access Natural Hazards Natural Hazards and Earth System and Earth System Sciences Sciences Discussions Open Access Open Access Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6741–6755, 2013 Atmospheric Atmospheric www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/6741/2013/ doi:10.5194/acp-13-6741-2013 Chemistry Chemistry © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. and Physics and Physics Discussions Open Access Open Access Atmospheric Atmospheric Measurement Measurement Techniques Techniques Discussions Open Access Scorched Earth: how will changes in the strength of the vegetation Open Access sink to ozone deposition affect human health and ecosystems? Biogeosciences Biogeosciences Discussions L. D. Emberson1, N. Kitwiroon2, S. Beevers2, P. Buker¨ 1, and S. Cinderby1 1Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment Dept., University of York, York, UK Open Access 2Kings college, London University, UK Open Access Climate Correspondence to: L. D. Emberson ([email protected]) Climate of the Past of the Past Received: 4 July 2012 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 October 2012 Discussions Revised: 21 May 2013 – Accepted: 24 May 2013 – Published: 18 July 2013 Open Access Open Access Earth System Abstract. This study investigates the effect of ozone (O ) de- tion will decrease the amountEarth of OSystemtaken up by vegetation 3 3 Dynamics position on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent and, according to flux-based assessmentsDynamics of vegetation dam- human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer “heat age, will lead to a reduction in the impact of O3 on vegetation Discussions wave” type meteorological events. Under such conditions, across the UK. The new CMAQ-DO3SE model was evalu- extended drought can effectively “turn off” the O vegeta- ated by comparing observation vs. modelled estimates of var- 3 Open Access Geoscientific Open Access tion sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 ious health related metrics with data from both urban and ru- Geoscientific concentrations. Two models that have been used for human ral sites across the UK;Instrumentation although these comparisons showed Instrumentation health (the CMAQ chemical transport model) and ecosystem reasonable agreement thereMethods were some biasesand in the model Methods and (the DO3SE O3 deposition model) risk assessment are com- predictions with attributableData deaths Systems at urban sites being over bined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel in- predicted by a small margin, the converse was true for rural Data Systems tegrated assessments of O risk using methods endorsed by sites. The study emphasises the importance of accurate esti- Discussions Open Access 3 Open Access the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air mates of O3 deposition both for human health and ecosystem Geoscientific Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and risk assessments. ExtendedGeoscientific periods of drought and heat wave Model Development dry year during which a heat wave occurred over the sum- type conditionsModel are likely Development to occur with more frequency in mer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the coming decades, therefore understanding the importance of Discussions influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different sim- these effects will be crucial to inform the development of ap- Open Access ulations were investigated during June and July: (i) actual propriate national and international policy to mitigateOpen Access against conditions in 2006, (ii) conditions that assume a perfect veg- the worst consequencesHydrology of this air pollutant. and Hydrology and etation sink for O3 deposition and (iii) conditions that as- Earth System Earth System sume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risks of O3 to human health, as- Sciences Sciences sessed by estimating the number of days during which run- 1 Introduction Discussions − 3 Open Access ning 8 h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 µg m , show Open Access that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 Strong connections exist between ozone (O3) dry deposi- tion and atmospheric O concentrations. Globally the reduc- Ocean Science days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink Ocean3 Science and drought conditions. These average results hide local vari- tion of atmospheric O3 concentrations through dry deposi- Discussions ation with exceedances between these two scenarios reaching tion processes is equivalent to ∼ 20 % of tropospheric O3 as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and eastern UK. Esti- photochemical production (Royal Society, 2008) though the Open Access magnitude of the deposition term will vary withOpen Access season and mates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from land cover. This is because dry deposition is determined by the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and Solid Earth July period would have been responsible for approximately the sink strength of underlyingSolid vegetation, Earth which is largely controlled by stomata accounting on average for approxi- Discussions 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposi- mately 40–60 % of total ecosystem O3 uptake (Cieslik, 2004; Open Access Open Access Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions 6742 L. D. Emberson et al.: Scorched Earth Fowler et al., 2001, 2009). During spring and summer pe- such concentrations are more typical of high emitting tropi- riods, when vegetation is physiologically most active, high cal forested regions and were considered likely to, at least in stomatal conductance (gsto) will result in high dry deposi- part, have been due to increases in biogenic emissions. tion rates thereby increasing the O3 loss from the lower at- Such conditions were experienced during the late summer mosphere and decreasing atmospheric O3 concentrations at heat wave of 2003 which affected much of Western Europe, ground level (Colbeck and Harrison, 1985). Conversely, dur- especially Switzerland, France and southern England. In the ing periods of extended hot, dry weather conditions the veg- UK the heat wave lasted for a 2 week period between 4 to etation can become stressed by high temperatures and soil 13 August, during which time temperatures peaked at a new moisture deficits (SMDs). These conditions will see plants record of 38.5 ◦C. Stedman (2004) investigated the associa- reduce gsto in an effort to limit water loss with subsequent tion of this heat wave with excess deaths caused by air pollu- reductions in dry deposition which can lead to maintained tion using established dose–response relationships and found high atmospheric O3 concentrations (Pio et al., 2000). This that between ∼ 225 and 595 excess deaths were associated effect has been investigated in a number of studies concerned with elevated O3 in the UK during the August 2003 episode with understanding the importance of O3 deposition on at- as compared with the same period in 2002 (with ∼ 95 % of mospheric O3 concentrations. Vieno et al. (2010) found that deaths occurring in England and Wales). These figures repre- “turning-off” the dry deposition increased O3 concentrations sented ∼ 10 to 30 % of the UK Office for National Statistics by ∼ 20 to 35 ppb on most days during the August heat wave reported total excess deaths. The ranges given are based on period of 2003. The Royal Society (2008) also investigated estimates made assuming either a zero threshold or a thresh- the effects of altered dry deposition on O3 concentrations us- old of 50 ppb for O3 effects on human health respectively, ing bespoke European model simulations; they found that based on COMEAP (1998). Across Europe, it was estimated “turning-off” surface deposition caused a 31 % increase in that the 2003 heat wave was responsible for 22,000 prema- episodic peak O3 concentrations and a 19 % increase in an- ture deaths (Schar¨ and Jendritzky, 2004) leading to losses nual mean daily maximum 1 h O3 concentrations. These re- of an estimated £7bn. Of the deaths occurring in European sults were in broad agreement with the regional modelling cities, between ∼ 2.5 to 80.0 % could be attributed to O3 of Solberg et al. (2008) which determined the key drivers based on data analysis from a study of major French cities of peak O3 concentration during the height of the 2003 Eu- (Filleul et al., 2006). The occurrence of such heat wave con- ropean heat wave by assessing the sensitivity of the mod- ditions is likely to increase in the future with climate mod- ◦ elled results to various parameter changes. Reducing the O3 els suggesting the probability of exceeding 35 C in the UK deposition term to zero produced the largest effect with av- will increase from 0.6 % under current conditions to 6 % by erage maximum hourly O3 concentrations of eight surface 2080 (Schar et al., 2004; Stott et al., 2004). The likelihood measurement sites across Europe increasing from ∼ 75 ppb that such conditions will co-occur with high O3 concentra- to over 90 ppb. tions will depend on how the UK and European air pollution The conditions that are likely to reduce dry deposition (i.e. emission reduction policy develops in coming years. extended periods of hot dry sunny weather) are the same con- At the same time as increased atmospheric O3 concentra- ditions that are likely to result in the build-up of high O3 con- tions may be causing impacts on human health, the reduction centrations. The association of poor air quality and extremely of O3 deposition to vegetation may be viewed as protecting warm weather is well established (Lee et al., 2006; Filleul ecosystems from O3 damage (Fuhrer, 2009; Matyssek et al., et al., 2006) and is due to a combination of meteorologi- 2007). However, the assessment of vegetation risk will be ex- cal effects, atmospheric chemical interactions and changes tremely dependent upon the metric used to estimate effects to both the rates and types of terrestrial emissions which (Ashmore et al., 2004).
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