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The Revival of the Hearts and Minds Theory Scriptie Definite Version New The 3D approach and counterinsurgency A mix of defence, diplomacy and development The case of Uruzgan Master Thesis Mirjam Grandia S0437697 Prof. Jan van der Meulen Dr. Sergio Catigani June 2009 University of Leiden Naamloos-1 1 20-2-2008 8:15:21 The 3D approach and counter insurgency A mix of defence, diplomacy and development The case of Uruzgan Master Thesis Mirjam Grandia S0437697 Prof. Jan van der Meulen Dr. Sergio Catigani June 2009 University of Leiden 1 2 Table of contents Introduction The 3D approach - A mix of defence, diplomacy and development and the insurgency in Uruzgan - Part one: Insurgency, counterinsurgency and 3 D theories I. Theory of Insurgency and counterinsurgency.............................................................................. 7 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................. 7 2. Insurgency and counterinsurgency ............................................................................................. 7 3. Afghan Insurgency ...................................................................................................................... 11 4. Uruzgan Insurgency..................................................................................................................... 11 II. The 3D concept............................................................................................................................ 13 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................. 13 2. Theoretical Foundations of the 3D concept................................................................................ 14 3. The Dutch 3D concept................................................................................................................. 15 3.1 History .......................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Current Model .............................................................................................................. 16 4. Implementing tools: Provincial Reconstruction Teams............................................................... 17 5. 3D in South Afghanistan.............................................................................................................. 19 6. 3D and counterinsurgency .......................................................................................................... 19 7. 3D Criticism.................................................................................................................................. 20 Part two: The Case of the 3D approach in Uruzgan III. Research design and methodology ............................................................................................ 23 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................. 23 2. Case study design ........................................................................................................................ 23 2.1. Case selection.............................................................................................................. 24 3. Research design .......................................................................................................................... 25 4. Data sources and collection ........................................................................................................ 26 5. Limitations................................................................................................................................... 26 IV. Case Study.................................................................................................................................. 29 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................. 29 2. PRT 1............................................................................................................................................ 29 2.1 Defence/Security....................................................................................................................... 29 2.2 Diplomacy/ Governance............................................................................................................ 30 2.3 Development............................................................................................................................. 32 2.4 Preliminary assessment increase/decrease stability ................................................................ 33 3 3. PRT 2............................................................................................................................................ 33 3.1 Defence/Security....................................................................................................................... 34 3.2 Diplomacy/Governance............................................................................................................. 34 3.3 Development............................................................................................................................. 35 3.4 Preliminary assessment increase/decrease stability ................................................................ 36 4. PRT 3............................................................................................................................................ 36 4.1 Defence/Security....................................................................................................................... 36 4.2 Diplomacy/Governance............................................................................................................. 37 4.3 Development............................................................................................................................. 38 4.4 Preliminary assessment increase/decrease stability ................................................................ 38 5. PRT 4............................................................................................................................................ 39 5.1 Defence/Security....................................................................................................................... 39 5.2 Diplomacy/Governance............................................................................................................. 39 5.3 Development............................................................................................................................. 40 5.4 Preliminary assessment increase/decrease stability ................................................................ 40 6. PRT 5............................................................................................................................................ 40 6.1. Defence/Security...................................................................................................................... 41 6.2. Diplomacy/Governance............................................................................................................ 41 6.3. Development............................................................................................................................ 42 6.4 Preliminary assessment increase/decrease stability ................................................................ 42 7.PRT 6............................................................................................................................................. 43 7.1 Defence/Security....................................................................................................................... 44 7.2 Diplomacy/Governance............................................................................................................. 45 7.3 Development............................................................................................................................. 45 7.4 Preliminary assessment increase/decrease stability ................................................................ 45 8. Overview of the trend indicators and institutional capacity rating sheets................................. 45 9. General Findings.......................................................................................................................... 48 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................51 1. General findings about the 3D approach in Uruzgan.................................................................. 51 2. Assessment of increase/decrease stability in Uruzgan............................................................... 52 3. Issues for further research .......................................................................................................... 53 4. Utility of SAF for measure of effectiveness purposes ................................................................. 53 References............................................................................................................................55 Annexes................................................................................................................................63 4 Introduction The 3D approach - A mix of defence, diplomacy and development and the insurgency in Uruzgan – Modern conflicts are increasingly becoming complex political
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