(MQM) Conference Journal

 I , Q  M C

– A, 

Publishing House “Delo” Moscow ·  УДК 330 ББК 65 C

Editorial Board:

Katalin Dióssi, PhD, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russia Svetlana Ovsiannikova, PhD, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public M  H C Administration, Russia Andrea Mikáczó, PhD, Szent István University, Hungary Online reviews: are they useful for consumers? David D`Acunto ...... 9

Machine learning for marketing: trends, perspectives and nd International management, Quality and Marketing Conference –th April, . an evaluation of three methods (Вторая Международная конференция по менеджменту, качеству и маркетингу, Daniel Sonnet ...... 22 – апреля  года: на англ. языке). — М.: Издательский дом «Дело» РАНХиГС,

. —  с. The contemporary marketing classiﬁ cations: distinctions sections and metrics ISSN - Ivan Novitskii, Nikita Tsyplakov, Alexander Leonow ...... 36

The scientifi c works collection contains the results of researches presented at the inter- The emigration issue of citizens from regions national scientifi c-practical nd International “Management, Quality and Marketing” of the Russian Federation conference. The collection is formed from the articles of professors and undergraduate, Kirill Darchev, Maxim Khlystalov, Igor Yarmomedov, graduate and postgraduate students of studies of Faculty of economic and social scien- Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 46 ces of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Nanyang Technological University (Singapore), University of Pisa (Italy), University of On the uneven population density problems Applied Sciences Hochschule Fresenius (Germany), Szent István University (Hungary), Elizaveta Makarova, Erik Salikhov, Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 55 Budapest Business School (Hungary), “Dunărea de Jos” University of Galaţi (Romania). The content of the collection refl ects the current theoretical and practical issues on the following topics: modern management and marketing, environmental issues, human Research on the number of orphans in the subjects of RF capital, national economy, business education, quality management and lean production, using methods of econometric analysis effi ciency of business processes based on the use of modern technologies and capabili- Ekaterina Boloban, Daria Lipina, Maria Zinovieva, ties of the digital economy. Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 63 For researchers, teachers, students, graduate students, managers-practitioners, as well as anyone interested in management, quality and marketing. Expected life expectancyand factors aff ecting it Anna Tselischeva, Anastasia Сhebotar, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . . 71

Analysis of generation Z life satisfaction УДК 330 Ekaterina Ademasova, Valeriya Gorokhova, Pavel Zhokhovsky, ББК 65 Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 77 ISSN - A multifactor analysis of ﬂ u incidence Polina Gryaznova, Polina Tarnovskaya, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . . 82

Editorial Board:

Analysis of the factors infl uencing life expectancy Victoria Pshenichnykh, Alice Stetsenko, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . . 92 © Russian Presidential Academy of the National Economy and Public Administration,  Analysis of road traffi c accidents in Russia Daria Peshnikova, Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 108 An empirical study of factors aff ecting suicide rate A new approach for manufacturer to improve traditional price in the Russian Federation negotiation at the retailer`s market monopoly Aleksandr Semenov, Dmitry Tikhonov, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . 116 Polina Sintyurihina, Anastasia Zhuravleva, Evgeny Itsakov ...... 216 Herfendahl — Hirshman index calculation problem for diff erent markets N E  E I Anastasia Petryaeva, Alexandra Stepanova, Ilya Davydov, Aleksander Leonow ...... 226 The refl ection of tradition at the 100th anniversary of Romania. The way the tradition helps at forming the identity of the nation Process mining as an advanced tool for process analysis: Oana Andreea Nae, Patricia-Alexandra Nae ...... 125 logistics department case study Andrey Cherevets, George Blinov, Zemfi ra Aybedullova, Research on the subsidy level in the Russian Federation: Evgeny Itsakov ...... 234 correlation-regression analysis Comparative study of certain factors determining quality Vladislav Beliaev, Evgeniia Kalinina, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . . 137 assurance in higher education between Hungary and Russia Factors infl uencing technology innovations costs Boglárka Herczeg, Katalin Dióssi, Tibor Miskolczi, ...... 245 Sofi ya Vdovenko,Renata Mikhailova, Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 145 Margarita Kozlova, Andrea Mikáczó Quality and Responsibility — Lessons learnt from Investigating potential tourism strategies for promoting the ESG2015 based institute accreditation the rich cultural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan for higher educational institutions Dorobăţ Dragoș, Makhach M. Vagabov, Raziyat Akhmedova, Andrea Mikáczó, Boglárka Herczeg, Tibor Miskolczi, Hajara Amaeva, Yanev Etien ...... 152 Katalin Dióssi ...... 258 An empirical study of water pollution in the regions Managing Educational Projects: Cloud Solutions for Workfl ow of the Russian Federation Automation Kristina Bodrova, Vidana Sizonenko, Svetlana Vasilevich, Olga Makarova, Anna Olkova ...... 269 Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 177

Research on the incidence rate in regions of the Russian Federation Natalia Nalivayko, Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 185

The problem of deforestation in Russia Elizaveta Volskaya, Valeriya Lesnyak, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . . 193

M  E Data management for business intelligence: collection, storage and processing issues Evgeny Itsakov ...... 201 Project risk management: a case of developing an innovative manufacturing enterprise Anastasiia Lazarenko, Marylou Sarah Lucille Dupuis ...... 207 An empirical study of factors aff ecting suicide rate A new approach for manufacturer to improve traditional price in the Russian Federation negotiation at the retailer`s market monopoly Aleksandr Semenov, Dmitry Tikhonov, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . 116 Polina Sintyurihina, Anastasia Zhuravleva, Evgeny Itsakov ...... 216 Herfendahl — Hirshman index calculation problem for diff erent markets N E  E I Anastasia Petryaeva, Alexandra Stepanova, Ilya Davydov, Aleksander Leonow ...... 226 The refl ection of tradition at the 100th anniversary of Romania. The way the tradition helps at forming the identity of the nation Process mining as an advanced tool for process analysis: Oana Andreea Nae, Patricia-Alexandra Nae ...... 125 logistics department case study Andrey Cherevets, George Blinov, Zemfi ra Aybedullova, Research on the subsidy level in the Russian Federation: Evgeny Itsakov ...... 234 correlation-regression analysis Comparative study of certain factors determining quality Vladislav Beliaev, Evgeniia Kalinina, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . . 137 assurance in higher education between Hungary and Russia Factors infl uencing technology innovations costs Boglárka Herczeg, Katalin Dióssi, Tibor Miskolczi, ...... 245 Sofi ya Vdovenko,Renata Mikhailova, Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 145 Margarita Kozlova, Andrea Mikáczó Quality and Responsibility — Lessons learnt from Investigating potential tourism strategies for promoting the ESG2015 based institute accreditation the rich cultural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan for higher educational institutions Dorobăţ Dragoș, Makhach M. Vagabov, Raziyat Akhmedova, Andrea Mikáczó, Boglárka Herczeg, Tibor Miskolczi, Hajara Amaeva, Yanev Etien ...... 152 Katalin Dióssi ...... 258 An empirical study of water pollution in the regions Managing Educational Projects: Cloud Solutions for Workfl ow of the Russian Federation Automation Kristina Bodrova, Vidana Sizonenko, Svetlana Vasilevich, Olga Makarova, Anna Olkova ...... 269 Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 177

Research on the incidence rate in regions of the Russian Federation Natalia Nalivayko, Svetlana Ovsiannikova ...... 185

The problem of deforestation in Russia Elizaveta Volskaya, Valeriya Lesnyak, Svetlana Ovsiannikova . . . . . 193

M  H C Online reviews: are they useful for consumers?

D DA Department of Economics and Management University of Pisa

A

This paper focuses on the language used by consumers in a sample of TripAdvisor online reviews. We investigate, by means of automated text analysis, how the language inﬂ uences the reviews’ usefulness perception, i. e. the number of times the review has been marked as helpful by others. Our overall dataset consists of over  million Tr- ipAdvisor hotel reviews from the top six European destinations (GDCI, ), Amsterdam, Barcelona, Istanbul, Paris, London, Rome and covering the – period. In this paper we focus on a sample of reviews about Amsterdam. Results suggest that word count and some linguistic features of reviews have an inﬂ uence on reviews’ usefulness perception. Implications for managers are provided. Key words: online reviews’ usefulness; automated text analysis; hospitality industry; eWOM

I

Consumers’ online reviews represent one of the main sources of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM)

 Online reviews: are they useful for consumers?

D DA Department of Economics and Management University of Pisa

A

I

Consumers’ online reviews represent one of the main sources of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM)

  I. M, Q  M C O :     

(Del Chiappa et al., ) and play a critical role particularly in D// the tourism and hospitality industry (Schuckert et al., ). Managing online reviews eff ectively improves room occupancy Data (De Pelsmacker et al., ), online booking transaction average Our overall dataset consists of over  million TripAdvisor hotel value (Torres et al., ), and consumers’ willingness to pay (Ni- reviews from the top six European destinations (GDCI, ), eto-Garcia et al., ). When communicating about the compa- Amsterdam, Barcelona, Istanbul, Paris, London, Rome and cover- ny’s products and services customers become “objective voices” ing the – period (Table ). The dataset considers the to- (Vermeulen and Seegers, ), and over % of consumers take tal amount of available hotels in the TripAdvisor platform for the into account other peers reviews when planning a holiday (Xie et selected cities. al., ) and to inform their decision-making processes (Zhu & Zhang, ). Online reviews are indeed perceived as more trust- T . Descriptive statistics: sample worthy and credible compared to company-generated informa- City N. of reviews % N. of hotels % tion (Filieri et al., ; Park, Lee and Han, ). London . ,% . ,% The main features of consumer reviews are the score (e. g., Paris . ,% . ,% Rome . ,% . ,% stars) and the content of the review. Review content are unstruc- Barcelona . ,%  ,% tured user-generated contents (Zhang et al., ) and they re- Amsterdam . ,%  ,% fl ect customers’ consumption experience and their perceptions Istanbul . ,% . ,% in more detail than mere ratings (Xu and Li, ). Therefore, the Total .. ,% . ,% text-based analysis of consumer reviews has attracted considerable attention in the recent marketing literature (e. g. Berger et For the specifi c purpose of this study, we downloaded only the al., , Ludwig et al., ; Villarroel et al., , van Laer et al. reviews originally written in English, in order to avoid any data ) suggesting, for instance, that customers tend to use more loss due to mistakes in translation or misinterpretation when ap- words to express their dissatisfaction and anger towards a prod- plying the dictionaries developed for the content analysis soft- uct or service (Berezina et al. ). In addition, some linguistic ware. Cultural biases are minimized as guests come from all over attributes have been investigated to understand how they infl u- the world in the selected tourist destinations, as shown in Fig. . ence customer ratings (Zhao et al. ). Latin America Oceania; 6,4% Africa This paper focuses on the language used by consumers in a and The sample of TripAdvisor online reviews and in particular we inves- Carribean tigate how the language infl uences the reviews’ usefulness per- Asia; 7,7% ception, i. e. number of times the review has been marked as useful by others, which is an important information for consumers to facilitate decision-making as it increases readers’ choice of the North America; Europe; 58,0% product/service in question. 25,0% Therefore, in this research we focus on the following major issues: RQ: How do consumers evaluate online reviews’ usefulness? RQ: How reviews’ content aff ects usefulness? F. . Reviewers’ Continent of origin

   I. M, Q  M C O :     

The dataset includes i) hotel details, ii) reviewer details, iii) re- ; Hewett et al., ) and consumer behaviour (e. g. Hum- view details, and iv) the text content. Table  summarizes the phreys & Thomson, ; Humphreys & Wang, ). We ana- dataset fi elds downloaded for the purposes of this study. lysed reviews content by using the four LIWC ‘summary variables’ T . Dataset structure that refl ect psychological constructs (i. e. analytical thinking, clout, authenticity, emotional tone) which have been used in pre- Field name Description Hotel name Listing name vious studies (Akpinar et al. , Hwong et al. , Yoon et al. Reviewer name Reviewer identity , Margolin and Markowitz , Parkinson et al. ). N° of contributions N° of reviews released by the reviewer Second, we used R software to perform sentiment analysis of N° of helpful votes N° times the review has been marked as useful textual content and in order to compute the i) subjectivity (Giat- by others soglou et al., ; Saif et al., ), ii) polarity (Cho et al., ; Reviewer age –, –, –, –, + Reviewer gender Man, woman Deng et al., ; Giatsoglou et al., ; Saif et al., , iii) di- Reviewer from (City) Free fi eld versity (Lahuerta-Otero and Cordero- Gutiérrez, ; Zhang et Reviewer from (Country) Free fi eld al., a), and iv) readability (Gunning, ; Fang et al., , Review score (bubble rating)  to  Li et al., ) scores for each review. Review date dd/mm/yy Date of review releasing — dd/mm/yyy Stayed date Date of stay — mm/yyyy F Traveled as Couple, business, solo, family, friends Review header Text fi eld When looking at the perceived usefulness and rating of reviews, Review text Text fi eld preliminary results show signifi cant diff erences among the char- Answer text Text fi eld — Company answer acteristics of reviewers in terms of age, gender, country, year, trip In this paper we focus only on the city of Amsterdam. From the purpose. original dataset made by . reviews we excluded records with Reviewer’s age plays an important role in terms of reviews’ use- incomplete information, and we performed our exploratory study fulness perception. In fact, the highest level of usefulness per- on a fi nal sample consisting of . online reviews (Table ). ceived by the other community members is detected within the

+ age class (,); moreover, the distribution recalls a positive T . Amsterdam sample relationship between usefulness and reviewer’s age. That is, the Rating N. of reviews % older the reviewer, the higher the average perception of useful-   %   % ness of his/her review. This fi nding can be ascribable to a sort of   % expertise which travellers tend to attribute to the older reviewers.   % In terms of gender, men’s reviews tend to be associated with   % a signifi cant higher level of usefulness (.) compared to wom- Total . % en ones (.) by other travellers. Signifi cant diff erences in terms of travel occasions are also ev- Methodology ident. In particular, business travelers (,) and solo travelers (,) are the most useful reviewers, according to the other com- Consumers’ reviews were fi rstly analyzed through LIWC (Penne- munity members. Conversely, people travelling with friends baker et al., ) already used in psychology (e. g. Bazarova et (,) tend to release the reviews considered as the least useful al., , Boyd and Pennebaker, ) marketing (e. g. Cruz et al., by others. As a possible explanation, people who travel alone or

   I. M, Q  M C O :     

   I. M, Q  M C O :      for business purposes tend to be more analytic and precise in By the mean of regression analysis, we then investigate the ef- their reviewing process. fect of language metrics on the reviews’ usefulness, fi nding that When looking at the reviewer’s origin, north Americans (,) there is a signifi cant eff ect of several variables. The main results and Oceanians (,) travelers are considered the most useful re- of the regression indicate that word count signifi cantly predict- viewers, while Africans are the least (,). ed useful votes ( = ., p<.) that is, the longer the review the Table  reports the Anova results of usefulness and ratings per more it is marked as useful by other community members. The reviewer’ features. rating has a negative impact on usefulness perception (= –., p<.) suggesting that reviews with higher rates are considered T . Characteristics of reviews and reviewers: usefulness and ratings less useful than reviews with negative rates. These two results N Mean values Anova are in line with Filieri et al. () who found how reviews with Usefulness Rating Usefulness Rating extremely negative ratings tend to be longer and more likely to (–) (–) Age –  , , F=, F=, be voted as helpful by consumers. –  . . p<. p<. Moreover, and in line with Zhang et al. () and Xu and Li –  . , (), consumers appreciate the details provided by reviewers –  , , and this result is confi rmed also by the analytical variable which +  . , reports a positive and signifi cant parameter ( = ., p<.) and Total  , , Gender Woman  , , F=, F=, by the subjectivity variable which is positive as well ( =., Man  , , p<, p<, p<.). Total  , , We fi nally obtained a counter-intuitively result regarding the Year –  , , F=, F=, readability of the review which seems to impact in a negative but –  , , p<, p<, –  , , small way the number of useful votes (= –., p<.). Table  Total  , , reports the regression results. Trip purpose Couple  , , F=, F=, T . Regression model On B Dev std Beta t p business  , , p<, p<, Constant 1,700 0,047 35,817 0,000 Solo  . , Word count (ln) 0,288 0,008 0,156 34,894 0,000 With family  . , Rating (1–5) -0,013 0,006 -0,011 -2,431 0,015 With Analytic (std) 0,067 0,005 0,053 12,211 0,000 friends  . , Total  , , Readable (std) -0,036 0,005 -0,028 -6,609 0,000 Reviewer’s Subjective (std) 0,025 0,006 0,019 4,370 0,000 origin Africa  , , F=, F=, R = 0,162; R2 = 0,026; adj R2 = 0,026 dev std = 1,252704 Asia  , , p<, p<, Excluded variables: Authentic, Diversity, Polarized Europe  , , DV: Usefulness South/ Cen. Ame  , , North D    America  , , Oceania  , , This research contributes to the electronic word-of-mouth literature Totale  , , in the hospitality industry by showing an application of text mining

   I. M, Q  M C O :      for business purposes tend to be more analytic and precise in By the mean of regression analysis, we then investigate the ef- their reviewing process. fect of language metrics on the reviews’ usefulness, fi nding that When looking at the reviewer’s origin, north Americans (,) there is a signifi cant eff ect of several variables. The main results and Oceanians (,) travelers are considered the most useful re- of the regression indicate that word count signifi cantly predict- viewers, while Africans are the least (,). ed useful votes ( = ., p<.) that is, the longer the review the Table  reports the Anova results of usefulness and ratings per more it is marked as useful by other community members. The reviewer’ features. rating has a negative impact on usefulness perception (= –., p<.) suggesting that reviews with higher rates are considered T . Characteristics of reviews and reviewers: usefulness and ratings less useful than reviews with negative rates. These two results N Mean values Anova are in line with Filieri et al. () who found how reviews with Usefulness Rating Usefulness Rating extremely negative ratings tend to be longer and more likely to (–) (–) Age –  , , F=, F=, be voted as helpful by consumers. –  . . p<. p<. Moreover, and in line with Zhang et al. () and Xu and Li –  . , (), consumers appreciate the details provided by reviewers –  , , and this result is confi rmed also by the analytical variable which +  . , reports a positive and signifi cant parameter ( = ., p<.) and Total  , , Gender Woman  , , F=, F=, by the subjectivity variable which is positive as well ( =., Man  , , p<, p<, p<.). Total  , , We fi nally obtained a counter-intuitively result regarding the Year –  , , F=, F=, readability of the review which seems to impact in a negative but –  , , p<, p<, –  , , small way the number of useful votes (= –., p<.). Table  Total  , , reports the regression results. Trip purpose Couple  , , F=, F=, T . Regression model On B Dev std Beta t p business  , , p<, p<, Constant 1,700 0,047 35,817 0,000 Solo  . , Word count (ln) 0,288 0,008 0,156 34,894 0,000 With family  . , Rating (1–5) -0,013 0,006 -0,011 -2,431 0,015 With Analytic (std) 0,067 0,005 0,053 12,211 0,000 friends  . , Total  , , Readable (std) -0,036 0,005 -0,028 -6,609 0,000 Reviewer’s Subjective (std) 0,025 0,006 0,019 4,370 0,000 origin Africa  , , F=, F=, R = 0,162; R2 = 0,026; adj R2 = 0,026 dev std = 1,252704 Asia  , , p<, p<, Excluded variables: Authentic, Diversity, Polarized Europe  , , DV: Usefulness South/ Cen. Ame  , , North D    America  , , Oceania  , , This research contributes to the electronic word-of-mouth literature Totale  , , in the hospitality industry by showing an application of text mining

   I. M, Q  M C O :      tools (e. g. subjectivity, diversity), as review usefulness antecedents . Cho, H., Kim, S., Lee, J., Lee, J.S. (). Data-driven integration are still relatively understudied (Filieri, ). Understanding the of multiple sentiment dictionaries for lexicon-based sentiment factors that infl uence the evaluation of a review as useful is an im- classification of product reviews. Knowledge-Based Sys- portant yet relatively understudied topic in marketing. Analyzing tems , –. the text content enable managers to exploit consumer insights em- . De Pelsmacker, P., van Tilburg, S., & Holthof, C. (). Digital bedded in textual data. These preliminary fi ndings off er insights for marketing strategies, online reviews and hotel performance. In- hotel managers, consumers, and for review platforms. ternational Journal of Hospitality Management, , –. First, hotel managers should take care of longer and analyti- . Del Chiappa, G., Lorenzo-Romero, C., & Alarcón-del-Amo, M. cal reviews since they are considered more useful by consumers. D. C. (). Profi ling tourists based on their perceptions of the Moreover, knowing which characteristics lead to higher useful- trustworthiness of diff erent types of peer-to-peer applications. ness allow hotels to motivate satisfi ed customers in writing more Current Issues in Tourism, (), –. helpful reviews. The number of useful votes can infl uence, in an indirect way, the reputation and the revenue of the reviewed fi rm. . Deng, S., Sinha, A. P., & Zhao, H. (). Adapting sentiment It is therefore an indicator to be considered by managers in ad- lexicons to domain-specifi c social media texts. Decision Support dition to the number of stars (i. e. rating) a review receives. Systems, , –. Second, consumers can predict the potential most useful re- . Fang, B., Ye, Q., Kucukusta, D., & Law, R. (). Analysis of the views among the new ones, and therefore shortlist them for their perceived value of online tourism reviews: Infl uence of reada- future purchase decision making. Also, consumers who know how bility and reviewer characteristics. Tourism Management, , to write good and useful reviews, can use this knowledge for their –. review-writing or blogging activities in order to become more re- . Filieri, R., Alguezaui, S., & McLeay, F. (). Why do travelers warding. trust TripAdvisor? Antecedents of trust towards consumer-gen- Third, review platforms can assess review usefulness in a more erated media and its infl uence on recommendation adoption eff ective way, and they should better highlight the most useful and word of mouth. Tourism Management, , –. reviews, as they represent a quality indicator for the platform . Filieri, R., Raguseo, E., & Vitari, C. (). What moderates the among its competitors. infl uence of extremely negative ratings? The role of review and reviewer characteristics. International Journal of Hospitality R Management, , –.

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   I. M, Q  M C O :      tools (e. g. subjectivity, diversity), as review usefulness antecedents . Cho, H., Kim, S., Lee, J., Lee, J.S. (). Data-driven integration are still relatively understudied (Filieri, ). Understanding the of multiple sentiment dictionaries for lexicon-based sentiment factors that infl uence the evaluation of a review as useful is an im- classification of product reviews. Knowledge-Based Sys- portant yet relatively understudied topic in marketing. Analyzing tems , –. the text content enable managers to exploit consumer insights em- . De Pelsmacker, P., van Tilburg, S., & Holthof, C. (). Digital bedded in textual data. These preliminary fi ndings off er insights for marketing strategies, online reviews and hotel performance. In- hotel managers, consumers, and for review platforms. ternational Journal of Hospitality Management, , –. First, hotel managers should take care of longer and analyti- . Del Chiappa, G., Lorenzo-Romero, C., & Alarcón-del-Amo, M. cal reviews since they are considered more useful by consumers. D. C. (). Profi ling tourists based on their perceptions of the Moreover, knowing which characteristics lead to higher useful- trustworthiness of diff erent types of peer-to-peer applications. ness allow hotels to motivate satisfi ed customers in writing more Current Issues in Tourism, (), –. helpful reviews. The number of useful votes can infl uence, in an indirect way, the reputation and the revenue of the reviewed fi rm. . Deng, S., Sinha, A. P., & Zhao, H. (). Adapting sentiment It is therefore an indicator to be considered by managers in ad- lexicons to domain-specifi c social media texts. Decision Support dition to the number of stars (i. e. rating) a review receives. Systems, , –. Second, consumers can predict the potential most useful re- . Fang, B., Ye, Q., Kucukusta, D., & Law, R. (). Analysis of the views among the new ones, and therefore shortlist them for their perceived value of online tourism reviews: Infl uence of reada- future purchase decision making. Also, consumers who know how bility and reviewer characteristics. Tourism Management, , to write good and useful reviews, can use this knowledge for their –. review-writing or blogging activities in order to become more re- . Filieri, R., Alguezaui, S., & McLeay, F. (). Why do travelers warding. trust TripAdvisor? Antecedents of trust towards consumer-gen- Third, review platforms can assess review usefulness in a more erated media and its infl uence on recommendation adoption eff ective way, and they should better highlight the most useful and word of mouth. Tourism Management, , –. reviews, as they represent a quality indicator for the platform . Filieri, R., Raguseo, E., & Vitari, C. (). What moderates the among its competitors. infl uence of extremely negative ratings? The role of review and reviewer characteristics. International Journal of Hospitality R Management, , –.

   I. M, Q  M C O :     

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   I. M, Q  M C O :     

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   I. M, Q  M C O :     

  M   : ,  Machine learning for of algorithms, which allows computer to develop behaviours based on data . Machine learning algorithms currently aff ect var- marketing: trends, perspectives ious areas of economic activities, including marketing. Here, spe- and an evaluation of three cifi cally, the trend of automated analysis of customer behaviour methods based on data becomes apparent. Marketing has a tradition of implementing new methods, and the current form of marketing has been formed as a result of many researchers’ suggested solutions from a wide range of disciplines and new insights into marketing problems . D S The aim of this paper is threefold. First, a literature review will University of Applied Science, Hochschule list some positive practice approaches wherein marketing man- Fresenius, Hamburg/Germany agers have successfully used machine learning. Second, the most important results from surveys on how artifi cial intelligence and machine learning will change marketing in the future will be pre- A sented. For example, a survey conducted among  German, Swiss and Austrian marketing managers revealed that % of the Machine learning methods have gained popularity marketing managers fi nd artifi cial intelligence important for among marketers in recent years. This article dis- marketing. However, currently, every third marketing department cusses the trends and perspectives of machine spends less than % of their resources on analysis, data science learning approaches in marketing applications. In or customer insights . This ratio is assumed to increase in the fu- the present time, big data and machine learning are ture. Possible implications concerning the resulting constellation topics that are on everyone’s lips. However, wheth- on marketing teams will also be summarised. er or not this hype is justifi ed remains to be seen. Machine learning is a broad fi eld. It comprises various meth- This paper summarizes relevant examples and sur- ods and approaches. However, it remains unclear which are the veys to derive possible chances and changes for methods or algorithms best suitable for particular marketing marketers. Furthermore, it compares the perfor- tasks in marketing applications. Because of this, thirdly, this pa- mances of three machine learning methods that per will also evaluate the three machine learning methods on a have been applied on a well-known Portuguese di- well-known banking direct marketing dataset. The data is real- rect marketing dataset. All three procedures will be world data ( variables and  observations) gathered from a assessed based on their performance and suitability Portuguese marketing campaign on bank deposit subscriptions . in direct marketing campaigns. Logistic regression, neural network and decision trees will be Key words: machine learning, marketing, big compared and evaluated based on their applicability and perfor- data, neural net, decision tree, logistic regression mance in this direct marketing dataset.

I  Russell and Norvig , p. .  Chintagunta et al. , p. . Machine learning is a branch of artiﬁ cial intelli-  Bünte a, p. . gence that focusses on the design and development  Moro et al. , p. .

  M   : ,  Machine learning for of algorithms, which allows computer to develop behaviours based on data . Machine learning algorithms currently aff ect var- marketing: trends, perspectives ious areas of economic activities, including marketing. Here, spe- and an evaluation of three cifi cally, the trend of automated analysis of customer behaviour methods based on data becomes apparent. Marketing has a tradition of implementing new methods, and the current form of marketing has been formed as a result of many researchers’ suggested solutions from a wide range of disciplines and new insights into marketing problems . D S The aim of this paper is threefold. First, a literature review will University of Applied Science, Hochschule list some positive practice approaches wherein marketing man- Fresenius, Hamburg/Germany agers have successfully used machine learning. Second, the most important results from surveys on how artifi cial intelligence and machine learning will change marketing in the future will be pre- A sented. For example, a survey conducted among  German, Swiss and Austrian marketing managers revealed that % of the Machine learning methods have gained popularity marketing managers fi nd artifi cial intelligence important for among marketers in recent years. This article dis- marketing. However, currently, every third marketing department cusses the trends and perspectives of machine spends less than % of their resources on analysis, data science learning approaches in marketing applications. In or customer insights . This ratio is assumed to increase in the fu- the present time, big data and machine learning are ture. Possible implications concerning the resulting constellation topics that are on everyone’s lips. However, wheth- on marketing teams will also be summarised. er or not this hype is justifi ed remains to be seen. Machine learning is a broad fi eld. It comprises various meth- This paper summarizes relevant examples and sur- ods and approaches. However, it remains unclear which are the veys to derive possible chances and changes for methods or algorithms best suitable for particular marketing marketers. Furthermore, it compares the perfor- tasks in marketing applications. Because of this, thirdly, this pa- mances of three machine learning methods that per will also evaluate the three machine learning methods on a have been applied on a well-known Portuguese di- well-known banking direct marketing dataset. The data is real- rect marketing dataset. All three procedures will be world data ( variables and  observations) gathered from a assessed based on their performance and suitability Portuguese marketing campaign on bank deposit subscriptions . in direct marketing campaigns. Logistic regression, neural network and decision trees will be Key words: machine learning, marketing, big compared and evaluated based on their applicability and perfor- data, neural net, decision tree, logistic regression mance in this direct marketing dataset.

   I. M, Q  M C M   : , 

The International Data Corporation (IDC) has forecasted that products). Afterwards, they applied their procedure to the LED- the global data sphere will grow from the  zettabytes in  TV market and proved that their method outperforms tradition- to  zettabytes in  . Many authors have been creating a al approaches . hype about big data and the attractiveness of using this data that Individual user profi ling methods have been on marketers’ it has begun to sound unreal. Some authors have also promised dream list for a long time. Consequently, Trusov et al. proposed that big data in combination with machine learning is going to a modelling approach that enables marketers to uncover individ- enable marketers to identify the right customers for campaigns. ual user profi les from consumers’ web-surfi ng behaviour . This It is indeed correct that having more data is valuable ; however, approach might possibly be combined with Jocobs et al.’s solu- maintaining a critical distance from the real options these pro- tion. They used a latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to identify sets cedures off er is also important. In order to outline the current of products that are likely to be purchased together. This is espe- options machine learning off ers to marketers, a few positive cially interesting among online retailers who sell large assort- practices have been summarised fi rst. ments, where the scalability of the forecasts is as valuable as accuracy .

C  —   Lu et al. proposed a recommendation system for new garment purchases by applying real time in-store videos. They suggested Consumer perceptions are necessary for brand managers in order that these might increase product sales . Often, fi rms’ advertise- to derive a marketing strategy. Culotta and Cutler developed an ments are costly experiments conducted to determine their ef- automated procedure to monitor brand-related messages on fectiveness. In order to reduce these costs, Schwartz et al. sug- Twitter . Twitter was also used by Liu et al. for their research. gested a method to identify the banner-advertising characteris- They argued that reliable sale forecasts are important for market- tics that are most probable to be attractive to consumers . ing decision makers as this information aff ects marketing budg- Green marketing has become a trend in modern marketing be- et allocations as well as the overall marketing strategy. Social on- cause of a rise in consumer awareness about the environment. line platforms constantly deliver a great amount of data on con- Building on this, Chowdhury and Samuel used a neural network sumer behaviour. Based on this, Liu et al. suggested a method to approach to explain the behavioural pattern of the gap between use Twitter messages in order to forecast sales . actually purchased and intended but not bought green products . New technology (cameras, computer etc.) are often complex to Knowledge about relevant competitors is important for mar- consumers. Consequently, it becomes more diffi cult to under- keting managers as it is necessary for developing a strategy and stand consumers’ preferences. Because of this, Huang and Luo allocating resources. Guo et al. suggested a method that does not developed a method of preference elicitation for complex prod- engage in traditional competitor analysis methods such as fi nd- ucts . Ringel and Skiera suggested another solution that helped ing rival products. Rather, they aimed to enable marketing man- reduce complexity. They proposed mapping procedure methods agers to monitor their fi rm’s market position and competitors in that helps visualize complex market structures (more than ,  Ringel and Skiera , p. .  David Reinsel, John Gantz and John Rydning , p. .  Trusov et al. , p. .  Dean , p. .  Jacobs et al. , p. .  Culotta and Cutler , p. .  Lu et al. , p. .  Liu et al. , p. .  Schwartz et al. , p. .  Huang and Luo , p. .  Chowdhury and Samuel , p. .

   I. M, Q  M C M   : , 

real time. For this, they combined web crawler, natural language three: industries technology, media, telecom, consumer, and pro- processing and machine learning . fessional services . Moro et al. applied a real-world data set from a Portuguese Bünte questioned  marketing managers from Germany, bank marketing campaign. Their overall aim was to derive a mod- Austria and Switzerland regarding their understanding about el that is suffi ciently able to explain a successful consumer con- how artifi cial intelligence (AI) will aff ect marketing in the future. tact, i. e. whether or not the client has subscribed to a deposit . It is important to mention that Bünte stresses how there is no Though the specifi ed positive practices (examples) are not common defi nition for artifi cial intelligence. According to her, exhaustive, it is not possible to list them all. It has been a con- every support system that can self-learn is considered artifi cial scious choice to exclude machine learning examples of big com- intelligence . Based on her defi nition, machine learning is there- panies such as Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent, Facebook or Google. fore a prerequisite. Moreover, all of her survey results can conse- Nevertheless, the variety of examples given reveals that ma- quently be applied to machine learning. chine learning is applied in diff erent areas of marketing, and the The details of the survey are as follows: tendency for the same is rising. This will aff ect marketing, and Currently, there are big diff erences between the perceived the next section will summarise the trends and changes in mar- benefi ts of AI in marketing and the actual use of AI . keting. • % of the marketing decision makers believe AI to be important in marketing T     • .% of the study participants stated that they aimed to increase the use of AI in marketing In order to benefi t from big data, marketing needs to incorporate disciplines such as data science and machine learning , and mar- However: keting decision makers are aware of this. ITSMA conducts an an- • Only % currently use AI in marketing applications nual survey on the “Services Marketing Budget Allocations and • Almost % of all marketing departments have less than % Trends Study”. Marketing technology and automation systems employees who deal with consumer data and insights are ranked st in the  ITSMA survey when compared to the eighth priority given to marketers in the  ITSMA survey. It is, Marketing managers see in AI the (positive) future of marketing. thus, no wonder that the  top-ranked areas in terms of data They expect signifi cant changes in the team constellation . are marketing automation, social media and data analytics . • Nearly % of respondents attest that AI has great impor- Ransbotham et al. conducted a survey, wherein they collected tance in marketing tasks in the near future opinions from individuals from  countries and  industries in • A majority of marketing experts see very positive eff ects of spring . When the researchers asked survey participants AI related to the Marketing core tasks and the team constel- “What areas within your organization do you anticipate AI (big lation data and machine learning) will aff ect the most? Select three,” • % believe that AI will considerably change marketing the following industries mentioned marketing to be among the • % expect that these changes will be stronger than the

 Guo et al. , p. .  Ransbotham et al. , p. .  Moro et al. , p. .  Bünte a, p. .  Chintagunta et al. , p. .  Bünte b, p. .  Rousselet , p. .  Bünte b, p. .

   I. M, Q  M C M   : , 

changes made through social media . Average yearly balance, in euros (numeric), • % see AI to be decisive in the future competitiveness of . Has housing loan? (binary), companies . Has personal loan? (binary), • The largest area of application is expected to be in consum- . Contact communication type (categorical), er data and insights and Consumer Interaction . Last contact day of the month (numeric), • % believe that the number of employees in marketing . Last contact month of year (categorical), teams will remain the same or even grow . Last contact duration, in seconds (numeric), • % of respondents expect an increasing number of data . Number of contacts performed during this campaign and scientists in Marketing for this client (numeric), • % do not believe that this will reduce the number of cre- . Number of days that passed by after the client was last ative people in the team contacted from a previous campaign (numeric), . Number of contacts performed before this campaign and To summarise, a majority of survey participants expect changes for this client (numeric), in team constellations. Specifi cally, the number of data scientists . Outcome of the previous marketing campaign (categori- is expected to increase. However, data scientists in a marketing cal), and environment currently face new challenges. It is not obvious . Target variable: Has the client subscribed to a term depo- which machine learning procedure is best suited for a specifi c sit? (binary). data set. The next section is hence going to evaluate the three methods that can be used on a direct marketing data set. .% () of the called customers did not subscribe to a term deposit, while .% () chose to subscribe. The goal of the E     predictive machine learning application is to build models that  are able to forecast if a customer who was contacted subscribed to a term deposit or not. If this target variable could be accurate- The used data set has  observations and  diff erent attrib- ly forecasted, the bank would need to contact only the custom- utes (= variables): The data observations are the outcome of a di- ers who are likely to subscribe to a term deposit. For this purpose, rect marketing campaign of a Portuguese bank wherein the call we will apply agents called the customers. The agents had to contact the cus- • logistic regression, tomers often more than once to know if the product (bank term • deep learning (neural network), and deposit) would be subscribed to or not. The data set is available • decision tree online  and has been fully described by Moro . The  variables are: within a machine learning concept. For further information con- . Age (numeric), cerning logistic regression, the reader is asked to refer to Hosmer . Type of job (categorical), and Lemeshow . Deep learners are particular multi-layer neural . Marital status (categorical), networks that are trained using back-propagation. The interest- . Education (categorical), ed reader is asked to refer to the online book by Nielsen . Deci- . Has credit in default? (binary), sion trees are a popular method when it comes to classifi cation

 https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/bank+marketing, last checked ..  Hosmer and Lemeshow .  Moro et al. .  http://neuralnetworksanddeeplearning.com/, checked on //

   I. M, Q  M C M   : , 

1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 Logistic Regression 0.40 F. . Comparison of the three methods Decision Tree 0.30 Deep Learning 0.20 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

F. . Receiver-Operating-Characteristic-Curve F. . Accuracy details for Logistic Regression All calculations and visualisations are done using RapidMin- er . The main criterion to evaluate the diff erent methods is the achieved forecasted accuracy of the  test observations. The following fi gure summarises the accuracy achieved by the diff erent methods. The last fi gure reveals that at fi rst sight all three models per- F. . Accuracy details for Deep Learning formed evenly. All three methods are able to predict the outcome of the binary target variable with an accuracy of %. It is worth mentioning that the training of the deep learning method took signifi cantly more time ( seconds). However, it seems advisable to take a closer look at the accuracy of each method. This is because, in the population of all observations, only .% of the total customers decided to take the off er. In other words, an accu- F. . Accuracy details for Decision Tree racy of % could be achieved even if the methods completely failed to predict the cases of the off er taker. but also in regression tasks. The reader is asked to refer to Rokach The comparison of the last three fi gures clearly shows that and Maimon . only deep learning is able to reveal the pattern about whether the

All three methods are allowed to use all  observations. contacted customers will accept the bank’s off er.  +  =  However, the  observations are split into two groups. In to- observations out of the test sample represent the case when con- tal, % () of the observations are used to build the models sumers accepted the off er. Only deep learning has a “class accu- while only % () of the observations are used to test the racy” of .%. Both other methods delivered values less than model (evaluate the performance). All three models engage in %, which is a poor performance. cross-validation and parameter optimisation.

 Rokach and Maimon .  For further information concerning RapidMiner: https://rapidminer.com

   I. M, Q  M C M   : , 

 Rokach and Maimon .  For further information concerning RapidMiner: https://rapidminer.com

For the evaluation of binary classifi er, ROC–Curves (Receiver- fore aims to compare the three machine learning methods, Operating-Characteristic-Curves) are popular. It is a probability namely logistic regression, deep learning, decision trees, regard- curve that shows how much a model is able to distinguish being their ability to realise a model that could be helpful for a bank tween the classes (customers accept or do not accept the off er). within a direct marketing campaign. At fi rst glance, all three Figure  compares the ROC–Curves of all the three methods. models performed the same way. However, a deeper analysis re- Since Deep Learning has the steepest curve, it underpins that this vealed that only deep learning delivers reliable results. method is to be preferred. In summary, it can be stated that only deep learning seems R suitable to predict the customers who are likely to accept the bank’s off er. . Bünte, Claudia (a): Künstliche Intelligenz — die Zukunft des Marketing. Ein praktischer Leitfaden für Marketing-Manag- C er. Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler (essentials). . Bünte, Claudia (b): Studie: KI — Die Zukunft des Market- This paper discusses the trends and perspectives of machine ings . SRH Hochschule Berlin. Berlin, /. Online learning in marketing. Building on this, it further evaluates three available: https://www.srh-hochschule-berlin.de/fi leadmin/ machine learning methods for creating predictive models in di- user_upload/_Studie_Kuenstliche_Intelligenz_-__Die_ rect marketing campaigns. The trends and perspectives were ad- Zukunft_des_Marketings.pdf, checked //. dressed by listing the positive practices of machine learning in . Chintagunta, Pradeep; Hanssens, Dominique M.; Hauser, John marketing. These encouraging examples come from a wide range R. (): Editorial — Marketing Science and Big Data. In: Mar- of applications. It is remarkable that besides big companies such keting Science  (), pp. –. as Google, Amazon and Facebook etc., smaller companies also developed marketing supporting tools by engaging in machine . Chowdhury, Prajita; Samuel, Mercy S. (): Artifi cial neural learning. Marketing managers seemed to perceive the potential networks. A tool for anderstanding green consumer behavior. of applying machine learning in marketing. This is also refl ected In: Marketing intelligence & planning  (), pp. –. in the three surveys, which are summarised in the section con- . Culotta, Aron; Cutler, Jennifer (): Mining Brand Percep- cerning the trends and changes in marketing. All three surveys tions from Twitter Social Networks. In: Marketing Science  (), stress on the trend of automation in marketing. It seems very pp. –. likely that this trend will aff ect the constellation of marketing . David Reinsel, John Gantz and John Rydning (): The Digi- teams in the near future. A relevant survey among marketing tization of the World From Edge to Core. Online available: htt- managers reveals that they believe that the proportion of data ps://www.seagate.com/fi les/www-content/our-story/trends/ scientists in marketing departments will increase. However, cur- fi les/idc-seagate-dataage-whitepaper.pdf, checked //. rently, the job requirements of a marketing data scientist are not . Dean, Jared (): Big data, data mining, and machine learn- clear. This person needs to be able to understand marketing ing. Value creation for business leaders and practitioners. needs and be capable of connecting this with practical machine Hoboken: Wiley (Wiley and SAS Business Series). learning knowledge in order to derive relevant models. Specifi - Guo, Liang; Sharma, Ruchi; Yin, Lei; Lu, Ruodan; Rong, Ke cally, the fact that many models and procedures have been devel- . (): Automated competitor analysis using big data analytics. oped in machine learning makes it diffi cult to fi nd the best working models for a certain task. The third aspect of this paper there- In: Business process management journal  (), pp. –.

   I. M, Q  M C M   : , 

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   I. M, Q  M C M   : , 

  T    The contemporary marketing ing, online marketing, offl ine marketing, SEO marketing, SEM marketing, inbound marketing, SMM marketing, ORM marketing, classiﬁ cations: affi liate marketing, SMO marketing, SMA marketing, celebrity distinctions sections and marketing, CTR, Conversion Rate from the Organic search to the metrics Raw Lead, Conversion Rate from the Organic Search to the Form Submits, CPC, Paid search to sales conversion rate, Gross Open Rate, CTOR, CPM, Promoted Tweets Follow Rate

I I N, N T Students Marketing is a creative area, an integral part of a company. As Russian Presidential Academy of National such it is inevitable for all businesses to understand how it func- Economy and Public Administration tions in order to better utilize the beneﬁ ts of contemporary mar- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences keting.

A L R Associate Professor First of all, let’s consider the classical defi nition of marketing. Russian Presidential Academy of National Kotler told that marketing is “The set of human activities direct- Economy and Public Administration ed at facilitating and consummating exchanges”. The short ver- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences sion of this defi nition is «Marketing is the profi table satisfaction of needs». Our personal view is that marketing is the creation/de- A tection of human needs and its satisfaction. You should understand the meaning and signifi cant of it and if you will, you can The article makes a distinction between marketing create your own vision. terms and metrics. Conducted the analysis of the On the second step we will divide marketing into four spheres: market on the subject classifi cation. Carried out the • traditional marketing, certain market segmentation and the view of the • e-commerce marketing, signifi cance of each term is created. The modern • internet marketing and consideration of the digital marketing includes  • digital marketing. main divisions, such as: SEO marketing, SEM marketing, Email marketing, Social media marketing, Let’s consider these terms by step. So, the st one is traditional Website marketing, Free trials & funnel marketing, marketing. We can tell that it’s the marketing before the internet Content marketing. Every division has its own met- creation. ric to calculate and analyze to provide the right The next one is e-commerce marketing. This is a large area of marketing analysis. the economy, which includes all fi nancial and trade operations. We Key words: traditional marketing, internet mar- can include e-cash (for instance, payments by card), e-marketing, keting, e-commerce, m-commerce, digital market- electronic data interchange (EDI), electronic funds transfer (EFT),

  T    The contemporary marketing ing, online marketing, offl ine marketing, SEO marketing, SEM marketing, inbound marketing, SMM marketing, ORM marketing, classiﬁ cations: affi liate marketing, SMO marketing, SMA marketing, celebrity distinctions sections and marketing, CTR, Conversion Rate from the Organic search to the metrics Raw Lead, Conversion Rate from the Organic Search to the Form Submits, CPC, Paid search to sales conversion rate, Gross Open Rate, CTOR, CPM, Promoted Tweets Follow Rate

   I. M, Q  M C T    e-trade, e-banking, e-insurance. E-commerce can be classiﬁ ed into (Cost-Per-Lead), CPI (Cost-Per-Install), CPS (Cost-Per-Sale) and  types. The ﬁ rst one it’s a commercial organization that includes more others. As well the Landing page included in this section. BB (Business-to-Business), BC (Business-to-Consumer), BG The customer hires a webmaster and pays him when the visitor (Business-to-Government), BE (Business-to-Employee), BO makes a concrete action on the site. The purpose of this tool is

(Business-to-Operator). The second segment — consumers: CC to urge the user to make a specifi c target action. This page should (Consumer-to-Consumer), CB (Consumer-to-Business), CA answer three following questions: what is off ered here, why it is (Consumer-to-Administration). The third part is an administration important and how to get it. that involves AA (Administration-to-Administration), AB (Ad- SEO (Search Engine Optimization) marketing lifts your site ministration-to-Business), AC (Administration-to-Consumer). position in the search, but SEM (Search Engine Marketing) is a The fi nal one is the other business models such as DC (Decentral- series of marketing activities aimed at the promotion of the por- ized-to-Consumer), GB (Government-to-Business), PP (Peer-total, that increases the number of visitors (traffi c) on the site. It Peer). These are the main marketing sections. E-commerce mar- combines search engine optimization, i. e. SEO and contextual keting can be included in this sphere and can exist as the separate advertising. part. It’s fi nancial and trade operations throw the mobile devices. SMM promote your site through the social media. This is not

The rd term is Internet marketing that is online marketing — an open advertisement. This is a hidden, unobtrusive advertising the marketing via internet resources. Internet marketing, online that attracts the target audience to the promoted product. Users

marketing, marketing in a virtual environment — all these terms should not understand that they are openly off ered the product — are synonyms. The antonyms will be online and offl ine mg. I will they should want to buy/order the service due to the presented talk about this further. information. We can refer to this a hidden or so-called guerrilla The fi nal sector from the classifi cation is the digital market- marketing. Sometimes guerilla marketing also means hidden ing. It is more than just internet marketing. As mentioned before, marketing — a type of advertising in which consumers do not unit consists of online and offl ine sections. derstand that it is advertising. When the information is delivered Online marketing involves lots of diff erent items. Let’s begin through artifi cially created discussions, comments, reviews, etc. from contextual advertising that as well can be named as Search Forums, blogs, social networks, the comment area of almost any Engine Advertising (SEA). This is for example when you want to site and even a street can act as platforms for hidden marketing. buy shoes and search numerous sites, then POPs up a window SMM includes SMO (Search Media Optimization) — website pro- with an announcement of the purchase of this thing with an at- motion in social networks, that raise a publicity and product tractive off er, that is, this advertising is based on the content of awareness. the Internet page that you were interested in earlier or are inter- Infl uence marketing/celebrity marketing promote the product/ ested in. service due to famous person attraction. The perception of the Media advertising based on diverse electronic resources. goods by the audience changes, therefore the customers them- E-mail-sending that includes the advertising by e-mail. selves are looking for the product. Viral advertising. This tool acts like a virus. For instance, when ORM (Online Reputation Marketing) is the practice of devel- someone looks at an advertisement and he want to share this in- oping strategies where an organization can infl uence on individ- formation with his friends, family, send somewhere, etc. uals or others on the Internet. It helps to form a positive public Affi liate marketing is a big tool for using. This type includes opinion about the business, its products and services. Using ORM, lots of subspecies such as CPC (Cost-Per-Click), CPV (Cost-Per- the company can try to mitigate the eff ects of negative viral vid- View), CPA/PPA (Cost-Per-Action/Pay-Per-Acquisition), CPL eo, create proactive marketing strategies that predict the actions

   I. M, Q  M C T    e-trade, e-banking, e-insurance. E-commerce can be classiﬁ ed into (Cost-Per-Lead), CPI (Cost-Per-Install), CPS (Cost-Per-Sale) and  types. The ﬁ rst one it’s a commercial organization that includes more others. As well the Landing page included in this section. BB (Business-to-Business), BC (Business-to-Consumer), BG The customer hires a webmaster and pays him when the visitor (Business-to-Government), BE (Business-to-Employee), BO makes a concrete action on the site. The purpose of this tool is

   I. M, Q  M C T    of competitors and make eff orts to be ahead of them. Also, the • Conversion Rate from the Organic search to the Raw Lead zone of infl uence in the Internet can be expanded to improve the • Conversion Rate from the Organic Search to the Form Sub- perception of the company in the online area. mits We shouldn’t forget about content creation because interest- First of all, we start with the equation of the CTR metric. It can ing content is very important for the involvement. Lots of busi- be measured as: nessmen and sharks of the world market use this to attract potential clients. §·Clicks CTR (click through rate) = ¨¸ *100% Inbound marketing is not to make people to acquire a product ©¹Impression or service it is for notify them about this, about the brand, about CTR shows the rate of clickability of banners or other advertise- the company through diff erent digital tools. Inbound marketing ments, which determines the eff ectiveness of the advertising is a technique for drawing customers to products and services via contextual campaign carried out in the network. content marketing, social media marketing, search engine opti- While calculating CTR, it is important to take into account the mization and branding. It can be integrated as in the online as in method of division into indicators from the fi rst, second and the offl ine sector. third query (CTR of the st, nd, rd results through organic So, digital marketing includes the internet marketing, howev- search of the Organic Search) in search resources using organic er internet marketing can exist separately. search. Organic search — can be defi ned as a method of entering Offl ine marketing uses a variety of means that do not involve one or more search terms as a single line of text in the search en- the Internet. Some of tools are QR (Quick Response) Code, SMS gine. Organic search results, presented as paginated lists, are and MMS, distribution through the diff erent messengers such as based on the relevance of search terms. WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter etc, Interactive screens that help Moreover, it also important to consider the Conversion Rates in making a purchase like in McDonald’s when you’re entering from simple organic search and to the Raw Lead and from the or- and see the e-screen with menu and make an order, Radio and ganic search to the Form submits. All of those rates can give an TV, Electronic billboards, Phone marketing (cold and warm call- understanding of important content and show us the company ing). the auditory of the website. Let’s continue our article with the diff erent metrics. So, con- The next topic is SEM marketing. In this division of digital sideration of the SEO marketing which is the fi rst in the list. marketing, the following metrics can be distinguished as: SEO marketing is the methodology of strategies, techniques and tactics used to increase the number of visitors to a website • CTR by obtaining a high-ranking placement in the search results page • CPC (cost per click) of a search engine. • Conversion rate from organic search to form submits SEO shows the percentage of recipients that have clicked on • Paid search to sales conversion rate. any link in your email message. CTR in this marketing section can be presented and used for var- SEO marketing includes diff erent metrics, such as: ious online platforms such as Google Display and Google Net- • СTR (click through rate) work. As well as to determine the eff ectiveness of mobile adver- • CTR, st result through organic search tising and banners in applications. • CTR, nd result through organic search The second most important metric for search marketing is CPC • CTR, rd result through organic search (cost per click).

   I. M, Q  M C T    of competitors and make eff orts to be ahead of them. Also, the • Conversion Rate from the Organic search to the Raw Lead zone of infl uence in the Internet can be expanded to improve the • Conversion Rate from the Organic Search to the Form Sub- perception of the company in the online area. mits We shouldn’t forget about content creation because interest- First of all, we start with the equation of the CTR metric. It can ing content is very important for the involvement. Lots of busi- be measured as: nessmen and sharks of the world market use this to attract potential clients. §·Clicks CTR (click through rate) = ¨¸ *100% Inbound marketing is not to make people to acquire a product ©¹Impression or service it is for notify them about this, about the brand, about CTR shows the rate of clickability of banners or other advertise- the company through diff erent digital tools. Inbound marketing ments, which determines the eff ectiveness of the advertising is a technique for drawing customers to products and services via contextual campaign carried out in the network. content marketing, social media marketing, search engine opti- While calculating CTR, it is important to take into account the mization and branding. It can be integrated as in the online as in method of division into indicators from the fi rst, second and the offl ine sector. third query (CTR of the st, nd, rd results through organic So, digital marketing includes the internet marketing, howev- search of the Organic Search) in search resources using organic er internet marketing can exist separately. search. Organic search — can be defi ned as a method of entering Offl ine marketing uses a variety of means that do not involve one or more search terms as a single line of text in the search en- the Internet. Some of tools are QR (Quick Response) Code, SMS gine. Organic search results, presented as paginated lists, are and MMS, distribution through the diff erent messengers such as based on the relevance of search terms. WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter etc, Interactive screens that help Moreover, it also important to consider the Conversion Rates in making a purchase like in McDonald’s when you’re entering from simple organic search and to the Raw Lead and from the or- and see the e-screen with menu and make an order, Radio and ganic search to the Form submits. All of those rates can give an TV, Electronic billboards, Phone marketing (cold and warm call- understanding of important content and show us the company ing). the auditory of the website. Let’s continue our article with the diff erent metrics. So, con- The next topic is SEM marketing. In this division of digital sideration of the SEO marketing which is the fi rst in the list. marketing, the following metrics can be distinguished as: SEO marketing is the methodology of strategies, techniques and tactics used to increase the number of visitors to a website • CTR by obtaining a high-ranking placement in the search results page • CPC (cost per click) of a search engine. • Conversion rate from organic search to form submits SEO shows the percentage of recipients that have clicked on • Paid search to sales conversion rate. any link in your email message. CTR in this marketing section can be presented and used for var- SEO marketing includes diff erent metrics, such as: ious online platforms such as Google Display and Google Net- • СTR (click through rate) work. As well as to determine the eff ectiveness of mobile adver- • CTR, st result through organic search tising and banners in applications. • CTR, nd result through organic search The second most important metric for search marketing is CPC • CTR, rd result through organic search (cost per click).

   I. M, Q  M C T   

CPC helps company calculate the actual cost per click that a Number of unique clicks fi rm or organization pays for each click in its own marketing CTOR = campaigns and it refers to refers to the actual price you pay for Number of unique opens each click in your pay-per-click. The next topic from the division list is the Social Media Mar- CPC is calculated by the formula: keting. For analyzing the SMM we can use following metrics: §·Total ad. Spend CPC = ¨¸ ©¹Total measured clicks • CTR • CPM It is also important to consider what percentage of organic • CPC search should be converted to potential customers and regular • Promoted Tweets Follow Rate subscribers. • Promoted Tweets cost per follower The next topic is needed to be focused on is the Email marketing. • Like Rate For analyzing the email marketing, we can use following met- • Raw Lead conversion rate rics: Firstly, let’s start with the Promoted Tweets Follow Rate that is • Gross Open Rate calculated in as it shows the amount of people who actually keen • Bounce Rate on the companies’ content or the group in social media platforms. • CTR As more likes the company accumulate, the more attention and • CTOR feedbacks the fi rm gets from. That’s emphasize the integral part Gross Open Rate shows the percentage of recipients who opened of like rate for many SM platforms. the email compared to how many contacts were sent the email. Moreover, every Promoted Tweet has its price and the total GOR is calculated by the following formula: amount can be measured with the help of Promoted Tweets per Email Opened Follower. Every social media has their own price list and subor- Gross Open Rate = dination rules, but the price from promoted tweet per follower is Email sent — bounces always necessary to consider. The bounce rate is the percentage of people who landed on Let’s move on the Website Marketing division. your website, but instead of browsing further, they exited your For analyzing the Website marketing we can use the following website. metrics: BR is calculated by the following formula: • Traffi c from organic search Total one — page visits • Traffi c from paid search & referral BR = Total entries to the page • Drop-off rate • Page views per visit CTOR (click-to-open rate) is a metric that compares the num- • Minutes spent on per visit ber of people that opened the email to the number that actually clicked. First of all, the whole website marketing facing the problem of CTOR usually calculated in the terms of viewing the perfor- inside traffi c. To calculate this, we use the metrics of the Traf- mance of the content of the email. fi c from organic search and the Traffi c from paid search & re- CTOR is calculated by the following formula: ferral.

   I. M, Q  M C T   

Secondly, in the Website marketing division we meet the drop- R off rate. Drop-off rate simply identifi es users who went out of the fl ow from your google analytics. This means that viewers left your . Philip Kotler, Kevin Lane Keller (), Marketing Management, site, or that they simply left the fl ow of pages you’ve defi ned. th ed., Saint Petersburg Drop-off rate is calculated by the following formula: . Philip Kotler, Hermawan Kartajaya, Iwan Setiawan (), Mar- §·Number of impressions keting .: Moving from Traditional to Digital Drop-off rate = ¨¸ *100% ©¹Matched requests . Yurasov A.V. (), Fundamentals of E-Commerce, Moscow In addition, during the Website Research we also need to fi g- . Manufacturing Marketing Group, , Louisville, Colorado, urate the Page views per visit metric and the Minutes spent on viewed  March , https://www.mmmatters.com/blog/di- per visit metric, because market demanded the fast-operation gital-marketing-online-offi ne service. . Blog ‘Internet marketing’, –, viewed  March , For analyzing the Content marketing, we can use following https://internet-marketings.ru/digital-marketing metrics: . Constant Contanct, , viewed  March , https://knowl- • Companies Using content syndication edgebase.constantcontact.com/articles/KnowledgeBase/- • Webinar Attendance (the percentage of registrants) view-a-campaign-email-s-open-rate?lang=en_US • White paper conversion rate • Webinar conversion rate White paper is a document that helps your potential customer make an informed decision in favor of your company or a particular product. If the document is NOT conducive to a certain decision, it could be anything but WP.

C

To sum it all up, the classifi cation research shows lots of metrics that can be used in the diff erent sphere of marketing but as well it has its own value and many of them can fl ow into another part of market. The true way would be to fi gure out the specifi c of the business and decide in which sphere of the marketing it exist and what metrics can be used to improve the situation or reach the goal. As well should be understood the digital marketing is still developing in the high speed and there is no doubt that will be lots of extra metrics and classifi cation can be added in the nearest time.

   I. M, Q  M C T   

C

  T       that progress was needed towards regulation of the emigration The emigration issue in Russia by inﬂ uencing the chosen factors. of citizens from regions Key words: regression and correlation analysis, emigration, of the Russian Federation nonlinear regression model, socio-economic factors, time series, trend, constituent territories of the Russian Federation

I

By virtue of historical circumstances, Russia today owns a truly K D, M K, impressive territory, where a huge amount of resources is locat- I Y ed. According to the estimates of experts, the preliminary cost of Students mineral reserves in Russia was $ trillion. Nevertheless, excel- Russian Presidential Academy of National ling in terms of surface area, it is only the world’s ninth largest Economy and Public Administration population. The best example here is the north-eastern part of Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences the country. The population density in the region barely reaches  inhabitants per square kilometer. A demographic policy is one of the key areas in the develop- S O ment of Russia. Indeed, without human intervention, the devel- Associate Professor opment of sparsely populated territories is impossible in spite Russian Presidential Academy of National of the robotization and other innovations. In addition, the pop- Economy and Public Administration ulation itself contributes to the extensive development of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences economy. Not to mention that the emigration rate refl ects citizens’ attitude towards socio-economic conditions of the coun- A try. Apart from this, the fact that the mortality rate prevails over birth rate is peculiar to the Russian Federation. That is why the An analysis of the factors that infl uence the emigra- state should regulate controlled population growth by all nec- tion of citizens from the territory of the Russian essary means. Federation is given. In the course of the study, a pairwise sensitivity analysis of the response varia- R ble (the percentage of emigrating citizens to the population) to the selected explanatory variables This work is based on the fi ndings obtained in the fi rst part of the was carried out. Consequently, this enabled to build study. The following are the key fi ndings: a nonlinear dependence and analyze the response . The number of emigrants is normally distributed; variable. Additionally, the correlation between the . The location of constituent territories does not infl uence the response variable and the most infl uencing inde- percentage of emigration. pendent variable was studied. Along with this, trends over time were considered as well. On the ba- To determine the reasons for emigration initially  socio-eco- sis of the data obtained and the results, it was felt nomic explanatory variables, which could potentially infl uence

  T       that progress was needed towards regulation of the emigration The emigration issue in Russia by inﬂ uencing the chosen factors. of citizens from regions Key words: regression and correlation analysis, emigration, of the Russian Federation nonlinear regression model, socio-economic factors, time series, trend, constituent territories of the Russian Federation

I

   I. M, Q  M C T       the response variable, were selected. The data were obtained . The percentage of the labor force (X) from offi cial sources. The principal selection criteria were: . The per capita GRP (gross regional product) (X) . The homicide rate (X) . The degree of correlation between the response variable and . The percentage of doctors (X) the independent variable is higher than among independ- . The percentage of offi cials (X) ent variables; . The outlays on environmental protection per capita (X) . Logical justifi cation. . The percentage of children attending nursery school (X) Initial check narrowed down the number of the variables ( in- . The percentage of students (X) dependent variables with a correlation coeffi cient of less than T  .). The second check, in turn, enabled to exclude a part of the variables ( independent variables with a correlation coeffi cient Regression Statistics of less than .). Multiple R . R Square . T  Adjusted R Square . YX X X X X X X X X X Standard Error . Y X Observations   -.  X . .   Further study was carried out by applying the regression anal- X . . .   ysis to the linear model (Table ). In addition, the exponential X  . -. . .  model was built; however, it was not included due to its inaccu- X  . -. . -. .  racy. The following fi gures refl ect the soundness of the linear X  . . . . . .  model. The multiple correlation ratio (Multiple R) equals .. X  . -. . -. . . .  The statistic indicates a high level of predictability of the de- X pendent variable from the independent variables. Also, the de-  . . . . . . . .  X termination ratio (R-squared) is .. Hence, in . percent of  . -. . . . . . . .  X cases, the variation in the response variable (the number of em-  -. . -. -. -. -. . -. -. -.  igrants) is ‘explained by’ the variation in the independent varia- Thus, it was decided to remain the variable X (the number of bles. Based on the results, it appears that the model is sound and concluded marriages) on the ground that there is a consistent operable, but it needs to be slightly improved. correlation over time. Further studies were carried out with the It was decided to build a two-factor model for each explanato- remaining variables (Table ). ry variable to improve the model. Thereafter, it found that the Notably, each variable responds to the specifi c regions of the fi rst independent variable (the number of concluded marriages) Russian Federation. Along with this, independent variables for is better described by the logarithmic function. The third inde-  were used in the study. A great majority of the gathered data pendent variable (the percentage of the labor force) is described is expressed as a percentage of the population by regions. These by a second-degree polynomial. Editing and modifi cation of the are: other variables were unsuccessful due to the weak correlation . The number of concluded marriages (X) with the trend. Hence, the determination ratio (R-squared) increased to . due to the improvements. . The average wage (X)

   I. M, Q  M C T       the response variable, were selected. The data were obtained . The percentage of the labor force (X) from offi cial sources. The principal selection criteria were: . The per capita GRP (gross regional product) (X) . The homicide rate (X) . The degree of correlation between the response variable and . The percentage of doctors (X) the independent variable is higher than among independ- . The percentage of offi cials (X) ent variables; . The outlays on environmental protection per capita (X) . Logical justifi cation. . The percentage of children attending nursery school (X) Initial check narrowed down the number of the variables ( in- . The percentage of students (X) dependent variables with a correlation coeffi cient of less than T  .). The second check, in turn, enabled to exclude a part of the variables ( independent variables with a correlation coeffi cient Regression Statistics of less than .). Multiple R . R Square . T  Adjusted R Square . YX X X X X X X X X X Standard Error . Y X Observations   -.  X . .   Further study was carried out by applying the regression anal- X . . .   ysis to the linear model (Table ). In addition, the exponential X  . -. . .  model was built; however, it was not included due to its inaccu- X  . -. . -. .  racy. The following fi gures refl ect the soundness of the linear X  . . . . . .  model. The multiple correlation ratio (Multiple R) equals .. X  . -. . -. . . .  The statistic indicates a high level of predictability of the de- X pendent variable from the independent variables. Also, the de-  . . . . . . . .  X termination ratio (R-squared) is .. Hence, in . percent of  . -. . . . . . . .  X cases, the variation in the response variable (the number of em-  -. . -. -. -. -. . -. -. -.  igrants) is ‘explained by’ the variation in the independent varia- Thus, it was decided to remain the variable X (the number of bles. Based on the results, it appears that the model is sound and concluded marriages) on the ground that there is a consistent operable, but it needs to be slightly improved. correlation over time. Further studies were carried out with the It was decided to build a two-factor model for each explanato- remaining variables (Table ). ry variable to improve the model. Thereafter, it found that the Notably, each variable responds to the specifi c regions of the fi rst independent variable (the number of concluded marriages) Russian Federation. Along with this, independent variables for is better described by the logarithmic function. The third inde-  were used in the study. A great majority of the gathered data pendent variable (the percentage of the labor force) is described is expressed as a percentage of the population by regions. These by a second-degree polynomial. Editing and modifi cation of the are: other variables were unsuccessful due to the weak correlation . The number of concluded marriages (X) with the trend. Hence, the determination ratio (R-squared) increased to . due to the improvements. . The average wage (X)

   I. M, Q  M C T      

The model took a non-linear shape, however it enabled to have tion as unknown variables. For variables X and X, the series was a better correlation between the response variable (the number taken within limits of the standard deviations (Table .). The of emigrants) and the independent variables. mean of the equation was also found Y_M= . (Table Nonetheless, certain coeffi cients had low values due to their .). The table does not include the last two similar negative val- nearness and lack of logic compared to the percentage ratio. Con- ues for logarithm due to the negative deviation exceeds the mean. sequently, it was decided to exclude the variable X (the per cap- There is a noteworthy correlation between the independent var- ita GRP) and recast the variable X (the average wage) to obtain iables. For instance, doubling the variable X results in an ap- a more accurate model. The updated independent variable X proximate % reduction of the response variable. Simultaneous- shows the average wage per hour in US dollars. This adjustment ly, halving the variable X results in a % increase in the re- also enabled to compare the independent variable with variables sponse variable. The reversed situation there occurs with the of other countries, taking working hours into account (Table ). variable X, however the diff erence is not signiﬁ cant (% while increasing and % while decreasing). 

Y = . – Ln(X) + .X + .X+ .X+ .X+ T . + .X + .X – .X + .X     The number The percentage T  of concluded marriages of the labor force Intercept . Mean . . The number of concluded marriages -. Standard deviation . . The percentage of the labor force . T .

The homicide rate .  Sensitivity for LnX Sensitivity for X The percentage of doctors . .  . . The percentage of offi cials . .  . . The outlays on environmental protection per capita . ……… … The percentage of children attending nursery school . .  . . The percentage of students -. .  .  The average wage per hour in US dollars .  - . -. T  ……… … Regression Statistics . - . -. Multiple R . . - . -. R Square . Furthermore, in the ﬁ nal phase of the study, a time series Adjusted R Square . analysis was carried out. Initially, the interdependence between Standard Error . the emigration and the average wage was studied. Accordingly, Observations  the correlation of . was found. Nevertheless, the study re- A model sensitivity was analyzed during the next phase of the vealed a spurious (false) correlation. For that reason, an irregu- study. The ﬁ rst and second independent variables were analyzed lar (random) variation for relevant independent variables was using this method. Thus, the mean values were used in the equa- found. Along with this, the correlation between them was studied

   I. M, Q  M C T      

The average wage 50000 Russian Federation St. Petersburg 0,003 40000 0,0025 0,014 0,012 30000 0,002 0,01 20000 0,0015 0,008 X = 2612.3t + 13646 0,006 10000 0,001 y = 0.0003t - 0.5721 0,004 0 R² = 0.994 0,0005 0,002 0 5 10 15 0 R² = 0.888 0 -0,002 -0,0005 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2005 2010 2015 2020 G  G 

(Graph  and Graph ). Thereafter, the interdependence was ex- G  G  tinct, since the correlation was .. Hence, it was decided to public respectively). In accordance with the obtained data and study it with a one-year time lag (Graph ) . trends, there is a general trend towards an increasing number of The model thus obtained a suffi ciently high determination ra- emigrants from each region (Graph ). Notably, exponential tio of .. As a result, a positive dependence is observed. These growth is seen in Moscow and Rostov regions, whereas a stepwise ﬁ ndings cast some doubt on the preliminary proposition that in- increase is in the other regions. The only exception is the emi- dividuals emigrate to high wages countries. Presumably, the pop- gration peak in St. Petersburg in – since current emigra- ulation saves part of their incomes suffi cient for further emigration level at almost the same level as in – (Graph ). tion. 10 2 7 5 yxx410    510    810  C

In summary, it should be emphasized that emigration is a com- Additionally, the overall variation in the response variable over plex issue. The state has eff ective control policies towards eco- time was studied both nation-wide and in speciﬁ c regions. This nomic diffi culties; however, it does not have a strategy for the encompasses the administrative centers of the Federal Districts emigration issue. The model shows that all explanatory variables and regions that have maximum and minimum emigration per- do not contribute substantially to the emigration issue. High centage (the Chukotka Autonomous Region and the Chechen Re- homicide rate, in turn, is due to that it depends upon the number of people in the respective areas. It implies that a one percent increase results in a huge increase in crime in the region. Notably, negative coeffi cients are related to the fact that the percentage of students is associated with the number of concluded marriages. In the long term, married people plan that their children will study at universities. Thus, an emphasis should be put on the words ‘long term’ due to the percentage of students is a more signiﬁ cant indicator. On the other hand, the percentage of children attending nursery school has a positive dependence. Nevertheless, it is quite complicated to explain this phenomenon G  logically. Presumably, this is due to young families are non-loca-

   I. M, Q  M C T      

   I. M, Q  M C tion dependent and can eff ortlessly change their place of resi- On the uneven population dence. Other independent variables are not of particular interest; however, they have a signifi cant impact altogether. density problems Therefore, the study yet again approved that math cannot solve issues pertaining to human behavior. Nor can it be assumed that by infl uencing certain variables it would be possible to keep the emigration under control. The emigration rate refl ects the overall socio-economic situation in the region. Consequently, it is needed to target each aspect of it. One could, therefore, be con- E M, E S fi dent that economic incentive is not a push factor when choos- Students ing a place of residence. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration R Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

. Russian Federal State Statistics Service — http://www.gks.ru S O . Ovsiannikova, S. () Statistics: Student Book. Econ-form, Associate Professor Russian Presidential Academy Moscow. of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences A

As the title implies the article describes the uneven population density in the Russian Federation, the largest problem now aff ecting the world. The most essential factors on inequality distribution are clearly recognized and the most infl uencing factors are selected with the correlation analysis method. During the work, the regression power law model is formulated and the estimation of the sensibility of resulting sign with the modifi cation of factors is made. Moreover, the dynamics of the resulting indi- cation is investigated and the dependence on the most signifi cant factors is analyzed. Finally, attempts are made to give a recommendation on how to regulate the population density. Key words: density of population, inequality, correlation analysis, regression analysis, the Rus- sian Federation, socio- economic determinants

   I. M, Q  M C tion dependent and can eff ortlessly change their place of resi- On the uneven population dence. Other independent variables are not of particular interest; however, they have a signifi cant impact altogether. density problems Therefore, the study yet again approved that math cannot solve issues pertaining to human behavior. Nor can it be assumed that by infl uencing certain variables it would be possible to keep the emigration under control. The emigration rate refl ects the overall socio-economic situation in the region. Consequently, it is needed to target each aspect of it. One could, therefore, be con- E M, E S fi dent that economic incentive is not a push factor when choos- Students ing a place of residence. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration R Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

   I. M, Q  M C O     

I The demographic potential of Siberia and the Far East is clearly insuffi cient for the development of the natural resourc- Each unit of land has limited capacity to support people living on es located here and the creation of a developed, continuous eco- it. Hence, it is necessary to understand the ratio between the nomic and settlement structure. In addition, the population of numbers of people to the size of land. This ratio is the density of the Asian part of Russia decreases even faster, and in – population. It is usually measured in persons per km . it grew more slowly than the entire country, which also refl ects Population the general limitations of the Russian demographic potential. Density of Population= Area In the internal Russian migration fl ows, the so-called “western drift” has formed, the population is shifting to the west of the R country. Population density depends on many factors that characterize The population density of Russia in  made up . people the socio-economic sphere, the health care system, and the en- per km. If we compare the average Russian indicator with  vironment. For the study based on logical analysis,  factors (. people per km), it can be concluded that in all regions of the were preliminarily selected that could potentially aff ect popula- Russian Federation the population density grew by . people tion density in the regions of the Russian Federation. After that, per km. According to forecasts, in  the average population the correlation model was formed in order to select the most in- density of the Russian Federation will be . people per km . fl uential factors. Consequently, in the regression model were in- During  the population density is expected to be increased cluded such factors as: by ,% in the Russian Federation. • Number of victims in the road traffi c accidents for  thou- The population of the Asian part of Russia is  peo- sand people (X ) ple, and  people live in its European territory. The  • The average cost of one square meter of housing (X ) shortage of people in the Asian part of Russia aff ects the small  • Inequality coeffi cient Gini(X ) cities as well as huge cities growth.  • Life expectancy (men)(X ) Even if we take into account that about % of Russian lands  • Life expectancy (women)(X ) are unfavorable for permanent life, the remaining % is about   • The average monthly income (X ) million km, where more than % of the population of Russia  lives, is unevenly developed. In the most densely populated fed- T  eral districts — Central and North Caucasus — the population density is at least twice lower than in the EU ( people per  YX X X X X X  km ), roughly corresponding to the population density of North- Y  ern Europe ( people per  km ). X -,  The European part of the country as a whole may be compared  X , -,  in terms of population with the United States ( people per    X , -, ,  km ), and the Asian — with Australia and Canada (about  people   X per  km ). Almost half of the inhabitants of Russia live in two  , -, , -, 

X federal districts — Central and Volga Federal regions, and less  , -, -, -, ,  than % of the population live in the Far Eastern and Siberian X  , -, , , -, -,  districts (/ of the territory of Russia).

   I. M, Q  M C O     

 As can be seen from the table, there is a correlation between ﬁ cient of determination R = ., which indicates that in % of the pairs of the studied measure, and the nature of all the iden- cases, the change in population density can be explained by a tiﬁ ed links is diff erent and consists of the following: change in the factors included in the model. T  • Communication “Population density” — “The number of people injured in road accidents per  thousand people” Regression statistics is noticeable (according to the Cheddoc scale) and reverse, Multiple R , that is, with an increase in population density, the number R , of people aff ected in road accidents decreases. Adjusted R  ,

• Communication “Population density” — “The average cost Standard Error , of  m of housing” is high and direct, that is, with an in- Observations  crease in population density, the average cost of  m  in- Each indicator has an impact on the resultant feature. To as- creases. sess this eff ect, the values of each factor were individually re- • Communication “Population density” — “Gini wage ine- duced (Table ) and increased (Table ) within the standard de- quality ratio” is noticeable and direct, that is, with an in- viation by % with all other conditions being equal. Thus, as crease in population density, the wage inequality ratio in- each factor increases and decreases, the resultant attribute will creases. increase by the following values: • Communication “Population density” — “Male life expectancy” is noticeable and direct, that is, with an increase in T  population density, male life expectancy increases Decreasing of the factors by % Changing Y other factors being equal • Communication “Population density” — “Per capita income” X –% ,% is moderate and direct, that is, with an increase in popula-  X –% ,% tion density, per capita income increases.  X –% -,% Furthermore, the regression analysis was put into practice due to X –% -,% determination of analytical expression of resulting indicator re- X –% -,% lation’s with factors. To a high accuracy, the multitude regression X –% -,% as well as paired were investigated. From the data obtained, an T  equation was derived describing the relationship between the re- Increasing of the factors by % Changing Y sultant feature and the factors, which took the following form: other factors being equal 1 33 3 X +% -,% YXX0,000112 0,003 462,09 X 3  X -,% 1 +% 3 3 X +% ,% 10134,71XXX456 32,72 1,37 3800,8  X ,% +% X ,% The results of regression statistics were generated (Table ), +% X ,% these results correspond to the following statistical indicators: +% the coeffi cient of multiple correlation R = .. This indicator in- Therefore, the greatest impact on the performance of the re- dicates a close relationship of features in the equation. The coef- sulting indicator has the following factors: per capita income and

   I. M, Q  M C O     

At the fi nal stage, an analysis of time series was conducted, where the relationship between population density and average per capita income in Moscow and the Chechen Republic was investigated. At the fi rst stage, time series of baseline data were built, a close relationship was found between the resultant indicator and a factor, which was confi rmed by a high coeffi cient of determination. In addition, the change in the eff ective attribute in Moscow and the Chechen Republic since  was studied. According to the obtained data and trends, it is possible to reveal the fact that there is a general trend towards an increase in population density in the Russian Federation. F. . Changes of the population density and the average income in Moscow starting from  C

Summing up, the population of Russia is unevenly distributed across the territory. The overwhelming majority of the Russian

population —  percent — live in the so-called “main settlement zone” of about a third of the country’s territory. Uneven population density is caused by a number of interre- lating factors: social, demographic and economic. It should be noted that the uniform allocation of the population on the territory of the constituents entities of the Russian Federation is impossible. Low average income, lack of a developed transport network, lack of jobs makes some regions of the Russian Federation F. . Changes of the population density and the average income in Chechen inaccessible for living. Republic starting from  For the attracting people to the constituents entities of the Russian Federation with the least density, the level of the income the number of victims of road accidents per one hundred thou- should be increased, since the resulting indicator is most re- sand people. With a decrease in per capita income by %, the sponse to the per capita income. Furthermore, it is essential to population density decreases by .%, in quantitative terms —  improve the quality of roads in order to prevent population from people. With an increase in per capita income of %, the popu- road traffi c accidents and, as a result, decrease number of victims.

lation density increases by .%, in quantitative terms —  people. With a decrease in the number of injured in road accidents R by %, the population density increases by .%, in quantitative terms-  people. With an increase in the number of injured . Ovsiannikova S. N. Econometrics. A study guide for students of in road accidents by %, the population density decreases by the nd year of special economic sciences. — M.: Business, .%, in quantitative terms-  people. – p.

   I. M, Q  M C O     

Summing up, the population of Russia is unevenly distributed across the territory. The overwhelming majority of the Russian

   I. M, Q  M C . Stokols, D. ‘On the distinction between density and crowding: Research on the number Some implications for future research’, Psychological Review, vol , no , pp– of orphans in the subjects of RF . Kremer N. Sh. Econometrics: Textbook for universities. — M.: using methods of econometric UNITY-DANA, . —  p. analysis . Ivanov Yu. N. Economic statistics. Moscow: INFRA-M, ,  p. . Orlov A. I. Applied statistics / Orlov A. I. — Moscow: “Exam”, . . Statistical data: http://www.gks.ru/ . Estimated dynamic population density datasets. [Online]. Avail- E B, D L, able: https://zenodo.org/record/ M Z Students Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

S O Associate Professor Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences A

In this article the analysis of the number of orphans in the regions of Russian Federation is provided. Based on the collected statistical data by the methods of correlation and regression analysis, a linear multivariate model was built. The factors that have the strongest impact on the resulting factor are revealed. Moreover, a dynamic model of the relationship between the resulting factor and the most sig- niﬁ cant factor was developed. A dynamic seasonality model was created for the selected factor. According to the results of the study, recommendations are made to take into account signiﬁ cant factors that aff ect the number of orphans. Key words: orphans, regression and correlation analysis, time series

   I. M, Q  M C . Stokols, D. ‘On the distinction between density and crowding: Research on the number Some implications for future research’, Psychological Review, vol , no , pp– of orphans in the subjects of RF . Kremer N. Sh. Econometrics: Textbook for universities. — M.: using methods of econometric UNITY-DANA, . —  p. analysis . Ivanov Yu. N. Economic statistics. Moscow: INFRA-M, ,  p. . Orlov A. I. Applied statistics / Orlov A. I. — Moscow: “Exam”, . . Statistical data: http://www.gks.ru/ . Estimated dynamic population density datasets. [Online]. Avail- E B, D L, able: https://zenodo.org/record/ M Z Students Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

   I. M, Q  M C R          RF

I

Social protection of orphans and children left without parental care is one of the most important tasks of the state and society. Most orphans are unable to successfully adapt to life and solve many problems, as well as experiencing great diffi culties with employment, housing, arrangement of their life, preparation and observance of the budget, defending their legal rights. The problem of orphan hood can be caused by the diffi cult economic situation in families, demographic factors, such as birth rate and age composition of the population of the region. In regions with a higher birth rate and a correspondingly higher proportion of children, social norms can be more focused on the education of children, for example, unemployed women who are raising children are more respected in society. Presumably, the level of divorce in the region is signiﬁ cant, because it is easier to raise children in full families. The problem of orphanhood can also be caused by the lack of social infrastructure. The regional legislation that regulates the issues of child abandonment also has a signiﬁ cant impact as well as the policies and motives of bodies of guardianship.

C   

To conduct the study, an econometric model was compiled on the basis of open data classiﬁ ed by the subjects of the Russian Feder- ation, where the number of orphans and children left without parental care under the age of  years (Y) acted as a resulting factor. As the factors were taken: the population (X); the number of unemployed (x); the population with monetary income below the subsistence minimum (X); the number of births(X); the number of divorced people (X); the number of crimes committed against minors(X); the number of bachelors, specialists, masters(X); the number of pre-school educational institutions(X); monthly child support (guardianship, foster family)(X); the number of chil- Y dren’s hospitals (X); the number of children (– years) with orrelation matrix cerebral palsy(X); the number of guardianship authorities (X); Y X ,  X , , , , , , ,  X , , , , ,  X , , ,  X , ,  X , ,X , -, , , , -, , -, -,  , -, , -,  X , , , ,  X , , , , , , , ,  X , , , , , , , , , -, ,  X , , , , , , , , , -, , , ,  X , , , , , , , , , -, , ,  the number of adults with mental and behavioral disorders (X). X , , , , , , , , , -,  F. . C . F.

   I. M, Q  M C R          RF

I

C   

The correlation matrix is constructed (Fig. ). Factors X, X changes by %, the number of orphans will change by approxi- were excluded due to too low correlation coeffi cient. In order to mately .%. get rid of multicollinearity factors X, X, X, X were removed, Summarizing the analysis, it should be noted that the use of since the correlation between them is bigger than with the re- correlation and regression analysis allows to fi nd the best ways sulting factor. Next, the factors that demonstrate the strongest to solve the problem of orphan hood in Russia. The constructed relationship with the resulting factor were selected: X, X, X, linear model revealed and proved the importance of the studied X. factors. The most signifi cant factor requiring the attention of the The tool of Excel “Regression” was used to build a multiple lin- state in order to reduce the number of orphans is the number of ear regression model. The equation of regression dependence has crimes committed against minors. Also, the state should pay at- the form: tention to the health aspects, as they are signifi cant barriers in

Y= –, + .x + ,x + ,x + ,x working with the identiﬁ ed problem. It is noteworthy that ac-    

 cording to the results of the correlation analysis, economic fac- Standardized coeffi cient of determination of the model: R = tors are insignifi cant in determining the state of orphan hood in .. Thus, about % of the variation of the dependent vari- the subjects of the Russian Federation. able (number of orphans) in the constructed model is due to the infl uence of the included factors X, X, X, X. The signifi cance of the regression equation based on Fisher’s A     

F — test is veriﬁ ed. F fact =.. The tabulated value F — test is 

Ftable =,. Considering F fact>Ftable., then the model should be considered meaningful. The relationship is described between the resulting factor above (Y) and one of the factors included in the model, which change The signifi cance of the regression equation coeffi cients a , a, over time (–). The number of unemployed persons was a, a was estimated using Student’s t-test: t a=, ta=, taken as a factor (X). Sverdlovsk region was chosen for the study ta=, ta= ,. of time series because of the outstanding indicators. The tabulated value of Student’s t-test is t table = ,. As Building a model of the relationship of time series is carried tfact>ttable, the hypothesis of statistical insignifi cance of the coeffi - out by correlation and regression analysis. However, the applica- cients of the regression equation a, a, a, a is rejected. However, directly using regression coeffi cients, it is impossi- tion of this method will not allow to obtain correct results due to ble to compare the factors by degree of infl uence on the depend- the specifi city of time series. ent variable due to the diff erence in units of measurement. To Each level of the time series contains three main components: eliminate these diff erences, elasticity coeffi cients were used. trend (T), seasonal component (S) and random component (E).

E = , E =, E = , E = ,. When checking for a relationship between two time series, the     Thus, if the number of unemployed persons changes by %, the possibility of a false correlation showing that a relationship ex- number of orphans will change by approximately .%; if the ists when it does not exist should be considered. number of crimes committed against minors changes by %, the At the preliminary stage, seasonal ﬂ uctuations should be ex- number of orphans will change by approximately .%; if the cluded. Applied approach: the calculation of the values of the number of children (– years) with cerebral palsy changes by seasonal component should be done by the method of moving %, the number of orphans will change by approximately .%; average and creating the additive and multiplicative models if the number of adults with mental and behavioral disorders (Fig. ).

   I. M, Q  M C R          RF

Y= –, + .x + ,x + ,x + ,x working with the identiﬁ ed problem. It is noteworthy that ac-    

F — test is veriﬁ ed. F fact =.. The tabulated value F — test is 

F. . Seasonal component Additive model

Number of unemployed 100000 Seasonal component 90000 80000 january  , y = 0,001t4 - 0,620t3 + 81,41t2 - 4037t + 96099 70000 february  , R² = 0,977 60000 march  , 50000 april  , 40000 may  , 30000 20000 june  , 10000 july  , 0 august  -, 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 september  -, Series1 Полиномиальная (Series1) october  -, november  -, F. . Additive model of the number of unemployed december  -, According to calculations, there is a falling trend (Fig. ). The dynamic series of the seasonal component was approxi- F. : Forecast of the number of unemployed in  mated by Fourier series, which led to the detection of noticeable Forecast of the number of unemployed periodic ﬂ uctuations (Fig. ). Furthermore, we can say that the january  , repetition of processes occurs approximately every  periods. february  , This distribution of seasonal components allows to make a con- march  , clusion about the presence of a clearly expressed seasonal unem- april  , ployment. may  , According to the created additive model based on the data june  , cleared of the seasonal component, and the identiﬁ ed trend, it is july  , august  , possible to predict the number of unemployed (Fig. ). september  , october  , Seasonal component november  , 3000 december  , 2000 Further, to analyze the relationship between the studied time 1000 series, the method of regression analysis was used (Fig. ). 0 Normalized coefficient of determination of the model is: -1000 R=,. Thus, only in % of cases the change of the result- -2000 ing factor is explained by changes of factors included in the -3000 model. -4000 F. . Dynamic series 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Number of orphans Number of unemployed Series1 Fourier series t УХ F. . Graph of seasonal component    

   I. M, Q  M C R          RF

F. . Seasonal component Additive model

   I. M, Q  M C

Number of orphans Number of unemployed t Expected life expectancy УХ     and factors aff ecting it                        

R   A T, A С On the basis of the work done, it is possible to give some recom- Students mendations aimed at reducing the number of orphans. The state Russian Presidential Academy of National should consider strengthening the law on domestic violence to en- Economy and Public Administration sure the safety of children in the home environment and to pre- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences serve their mental and physical health. It is also promising to introduce additional loyalty programs for adoptive parents/guardi- S O ans of children with serious diseases. In addition, raising public Associate Professor Russian Presidential Academy awareness of the availability of psychological support services of National Economy and Public Administration through the media, the Internet and other information channels Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences can have a positive impact on reducing the number of orphans.

R A

. Family code of the Russian Federation of .. № -FZ In the article on the basis of statistics of indicators (the last edition from ..). of life expectancy in regions of Russia the law of distribution of probabilities of values is constructed. . Levina, I. A. (). The problem of orphan hood in Russia: anal- An assessment of averages and dispersion around an ysis of cultural, economic and political aspects.[Online]. Available average by years is given. The factors modeling the at: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe___–.pdf. received values for diff erent regions are analysed. . The administration of the Bokovskiy district of Rostov region. On the basis of the selected factors by methods of (). Social orphan hood as a social problem. [Online]. Available the correlation and regression analysis constructed at: http://bokovskaya.donland.ru/EventScheduler/EventSchedul- multiple-factor nonlinear model. The analysis of erViewPost.aspx?pageid=&ItemID=&mid=. the constructed model revealed the most signiﬁ cant . gks.ru — offi cial website of the Federal state statistics service. factors aff ecting life expectancy. An assessment of . sverdl.gks.ru — offi cial website of the Federal state statistics sensitivity of eff ective sign to changes of factorial service of the Sverdlovsk region and Kurgan region. signs is given. The most signiﬁ cant factor aff ecting average life expectancy was analysed in dynamics.

   I. M, Q  M C

R A

   I. M, Q  M C E      

Existence of seasonality is revealed and values of the research T . Correlation matrix data for the next period are predicted. In the work the tendency Y (Life Expectancy) to increase life expectancy in the Russian Federation in various Y (Life Expectancy)  regions with diff erent rates is revealed. x (Average Salary per month/roubles) , x (Morbidity rate among  people per year) -, Key words: correlation matrix, eff ective sign, factorial signs x (Average Weather) , expected life expectancy, regression model x (Mortality Rate) -, x (Emissions of pollutants in the atmosphere/ -, I rainfall) x (Number of Women to  men) , x (Consumption of meat pet year/kg) , Life expectancy (LE) is one of the key indicators for assessing the x (Consumption of eggs per year/kg) -, level and quality of life of people. Life expectancy is examined x (Consumption of vegetables and melon crops , from various perspectives, including such areas of life as medical, per year/kg) x (Number of people with higher education per social, economic, and many others. The factors aff ecting the life , year) expectancy of the population by regions of the Russian Federa- x (Consumption of sugar per year/kg) , tion were selected: average monthly wages, population morbidi- x (Consumption of bread per year/kg -, ty, weather conditions, mortality, emissions of pollutants into the x (Consumption of vegatable oil per year/kg) -, x (Number of obesity desease among   atmosphere, the ratio of men and women, food consumption -, people per year) (meat, eggs, vegetables and melons, milk, sugar and bread), the x (Consumption of strong alcoholic beverages -, number of people with higher education, the incidence of obesi- per year/litre) ty and the use of strong alcoholic beverages. x (Consumption of milk per year/litre) ,

R take of these foods, people will be able to lead a healthier lifestyle and stick to a healthy diet. In the course of the study, a correlation matrix was constructed, . The incidence of obesity (x) is inversely related to life ex- with the help of which the interrelations of the eff ective and fac- pectancy, which again proves that people’s health is inex- tor signs were revealed (Table ). tricably linked to nutrition. To build the model, factors having a weak correlation with the . Air emissions of pollutants (x). The relationship of this resultant attribute (less than .) were excluded. To exclude mul- factor with the resultant attribute explains how important ticollinearity,  factors out of  originally selected were includ- it is to take care of the environment in order to maintain a ed in the model. high quality of life of the population Below is a brief description of the factors included in the model. . The ratio of women to  men (x) was examined in a . The average monthly salary (x), which is an economic study in each region of Russia, as a result of which it was characteristic. noted that women live longer than men. This issue at- . Incidence (x) as the main characteristic of health care is tracts many scientists interested in studying the factors also inextricably linked with LE. It should be noted that this aff ecting life expectancy. However, the diff erence in the factor has a high correlation with the consumption of veg- life expectancy of men and women remains stable to this etables and melons and gourds. So, by increasing their in- day. . Consumption of food (x, x, x). It is worth noting that

   I. M, Q  M C E      

the study analyzed the consumption of food products that D  form the consumer basket of a person, which indicates the close relationship of these factors among themselves. Each The study shows the dependence of life expectancy in Russia on product is useful in its own way and harmful in its own way. the consumption of strong alcoholic beverages (Fig. ). For example, milk is a unique product in which proteins, So, during the analysis of data of time series, the presence of fats and carbohydrates are perfectly balanced. As for meat, seasonality was revealed. Analysis of the seasonal component this product contains amino acids that contribute to the ac- showed a reduction in the consumption of alcoholic beverages in tive work of the body, proteins, fats and carbohydrates, and the fi rst three quarters compared with the trend, and in the % consists of water, but scientists often say that red meat fourth quarter, the demand for alcoholic products is growing in is harmful to human health and advised to exclude this anticipation of the New Year holidays in Russia. product from the diet in order to maintain proper power  quarter -, supply.  quarter -, . Consumption of strong alcoholic (x) drinks. Based on the  quarter -, correlation matrix, high alcohol consumption aff ects the  quarter , health of the population, because the more people drink alcohol, the lower their life expectancy and the higher their Moreover, the dependence of the studied time series was iden- incidence. tifi ed with a one-year lag, which means that the consumption of alcoholic beverages in the previous period has an impact on the Using the regression analysis method, a linear model was ob- expected life expectancy in a future period. tained. X-consumption of strong alcoholic beverages Y-life expectancy у=,+,х–,х–,х+,х+,х– 18 80 16 70 –,х–,х+,х 14 60 12 50 The quality of the model was verifi ed using the following factors 10 40 y = -0.616t + 62.054 8 2 30 R2 = 0.8848 6 y = -0.0399t + 0.1726t + 14.965 (Table ): 2 20 4 R = 0.9762 10 T . Regression statistics 2 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Regression Statistics Plural R , F.  R-square , Normalized R-square , Additive Model 5 Standard error , 4 Observations  3 The coeffi cient of determination is %. This means that in 2 y = -0.0007t2 + 0.0106t + 3.7367 % of cases, the resultant feature can be described as a change R2 = 0.9473 1 in factor characteristics. The Fisher coeffi cient (F value) is equal 0 to ., which suggests that this model is signifi cant and de- 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 scribes the resulting relationship better than the average. F. 

   I. M, Q  M C E      

   I. M, Q  M C

Lag in 1 year 1,5 Analysis of generation Z life satisfaction 1 Hy = -0.03876Ex + 0.2029 R2 = 0.1382

0,5

-0,5 E A, -1 V G, -0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 P Z F.  Students Russian Presidential Academy of National

y/х — the deviation of the empirical data from the theoreti- Economy and Public Administration cal, since a linear trend was identiﬁ ed. Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

C S O Associate Professor Thus, based on the study, it was possible to predict life expectan- Russian Presidential Academy of National cy and alcohol consumption so that LE will be . years, and Economy and Public Administration alcohol consumption will be reduced to  litres per year per cap- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences ita.

R A This research work includes analysis of the factors . Ovsiannikova S. N. Econometrics. A study for students of the nd that aff ect life satisfaction of people aged between year of special economic sciences. ()  and . Statistics were gathered from the results of the questionnaire and the most relevant factors . Federal State Statistics Service [electronic resource], URL: were assessed using correlation analysis methods. http://www.gks.ru/ A linear regression model that describes eff ective . Federal Statistics [electronic resource], URL: https://fedstat.ru/ feature was created. The sensitivity of the re- indicator/ searched objects which are included in the model . Statistics for Russia [electronic resource], URL: https://russia. was assessed. Interrelationships among determi- duck.consulting/ nates were analyzed. Recommendations and correc- tion values of variables that have an impact on the life satisfaction decrease were also provided. Key words: generation Z, life satisfaction

   I. M, Q  M C

Lag in 1 year 1,5 Analysis of generation Z life satisfaction 1 Hy = -0.03876Ex + 0.2029 R2 = 0.1382

0,5

y/х — the deviation of the empirical data from the theoreti- Economy and Public Administration cal, since a linear trend was identiﬁ ed. Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

   I. M, Q  M C A   Z  

I YX YX

X .  X .  Obviously, one of the most important aspect of rapidly develop- X  . . X . . X ing society is life satisfaction. Making political, economic, social  -. . X -. . X forecasts a lot of attention should be paid to the public sentiment.  -. -. X -. -. X That is why nowadays the score of life satisfaction is an essential  . . X . . X issue to focus on, this score is aff ected by diff erent social factors.  -. -. X -. -. X . . X . . This research work includes analysis of the correlation be-   tween life satisfaction (rated on a scale of  to ) and the factors P.  Pic.  that can aff ect it. The analysis of the matrix of pair correlation coeffi cient D  showed that the dependent variable, i. e. the level of life satisfaction has a close relationship with: Questionnaires included diff erent social topics were prepared by

• how often people travel: the correlation coeffi cient of X =.; our team and mostly distributed between bachelor and master stu- • how many days a year a person spends traveling: the corre- dents of Moscow (aged between  and ). Thus, statistics of dai-

lation coeffi cient of X= . ly life, hobbies, entertainment of this focus group were gathered. • how much time is spent on the computer (inverse relation- The model included  questions. ship): the correlation coeffi cient of X = .  • how many hours a person sleeps per day: the correlation

D S coeffi cient of X = .

Having collected the data and having completed comparative as- Factors X and X are closely related: rX X = ., this indicates sessment some factors were eliminated by analyzing the pair cor- about the collinearity, therefor, just one of these two variables —

relation coeffi cients. X (the number of trips per year) was left.

The factors having correlation coeffi cient in absolute value less The coeffi cient . demonstrates how variable X  infl uenc- than . were eliminated. Thus, there were  factors left that had es Y. That is, the number of trips per year within this model af- the strongest connection with the performance indicator (with the fects the life satisfaction with a weight of .; dependence is di- assessment of life satisfaction rated on a scale of  to ). There rect — the more a person travels, the happier he/she is. were such factors as: “number of trips per year”, “the number of The inverse relationship was identifi ed in relation to the time days spent traveling per year”, “the number of hours spent on spent on the computer: –.. The more time a person spends at sports per week”, “amount of time spent on friends per week”, the computer, the less he/she is satisfi ed with life. “regularity of social events”, “the number of hours spent on com- Having analyzed the linear, polynomial, logarithmic depend- puter per day “ and “the number of hours spent sleeping”. ence, it was found that the linear model is the most suitable, so a linear equation was used. D  • Multiple correlation coeffi cient is .. • The coeffi cient of determination is .. This means that А multivariate model was chosen in this study. calculated parameters of the model explain the relationship Model type selection: between the studied parameters by %.

   I. M, Q  M C A   Z  

I YX YX

D S coeffi cient of X = .

relation coeffi cients. X (the number of trips per year) was left.

Regression statistics R Multiple R .

R — squared . . Michael R. R. Berthold (Author), Christian Borgelt (Contribu- Normalized R-squared . tor), Frank Höppner (Contributor) Guide to Intelligent Data Standard mistake . Analysis: How to Intelligently Make Sense of Real Data. -nd P.  edition pub. Germany: Springer, . . Thomas Hills University of Warwick Eugenio Proto University A test was performed using the signiﬁ cance of “alpha” with an of Warwick, CAGE and IZA Daniel Sgroi University of Warwick, approximate value of .; this shows that a stable depend- CAGE Historical Analysis of National Subjective Wellbeing. Ger- ence between the function and the factors is in-deed detected. many: IZA, . Based on the least squares method, the regression parameters . What’s the secret of life satisfaction? // www.bbc.com/news/ were estimated using the formula: business- URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/business- (date of the application: ..). Y = . × X–. × X + . × X + .

Where: X — the number of trips per year

X — amount of time spent at the computer

X — amount of time spent sleeping Also, considering the pairwise dependencies between the factors, a few interesting relationships were identiﬁ ed, such as: • the amount of alcohol consumed directly aff ects the number of cigarettes smoked . • the number of friends that people have on social networks does not aff ect the number of friends who they communicate in real life with ..

C

The study examined a fairly big number of social factors, but upon further analysis it was revealed that only a few of them have a signiﬁ cant eff ect on life satisfaction. We list them: “the number of trips per year”, “time spent sleeping”, “time spent at the computer”. Interesting dependencies between the factors were also revealed, such as: the eff ect of the amount of alcohol consumed on the number of cigarettes smoked; lack of inﬂ uence of the number of friends in social networks on the number of friends who people communicate in their real life with.

   I. M, Q  M C A   Z  

Regression statistics R Multiple R .

Where: X — the number of trips per year

X — amount of time spent at the computer

C

  A      A multifactor analysis of fl u shown. Data were taken monthly date in the period from  to . Constructed equation for correlation of dynamic series al- incidence lows to predict the level of fl u patients in the following periods based on the factors score, included in the model. Key words: incidence of ARVI and infl uenza, Russian Federa- tion territory, regression analysis method, linear model, the infl uence of each selected factor on the resultative feature, seasonal factor, dynamic series.

P G, P D T Students The purpose of this project is to identify factors that have an im- Russian Presidential Academy of National pact on the response variable namely incidence of ARVI and in- Economy and Public Administration fl uenza in the regions of Russia. According to calculations, the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences total number of infected during the past year was . Incidence of ARVI and infl uenza is one of the most common problems during the whole year, which covers most of the popu- S O lation and prevents people from living a normal life. Associate Professor This problem is related to the fact that the working capacity Russian Presidential Academy of National of the population during the periods of epidemics falls dramati- Economy and Public Administration cally and this eff ects on the economic situation of the country as Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences a whole. This research is relevant, since a qualitative analysis is likely A to reduce the number of infected. Data were collected for  subjects of the Russian Federation The article deals with the problem of fl u on the ter- and  factors were selected: ritory of the Russian Federation. The most signifi - cant factors having impact on fl u incidence rate are • Average salary (х); as follows: the number of people using public trans- • The number of people using public transport (х); port, the number of autoimmune diseases per  • The number of medical workers per , people (х); people, an average temperature, an average humid- • The number of pregnant womenн (х); The number of autoimmune diseases per , people ity, cost of lemons per  kg. • (х); We constructed a multiple regression model of • Average air temperature (х); fl u incidence rate and tested its statistical signifi - • Average air humidity (х); cance. The eff ect of the seasonal component on the • The cost of lemons per  kg (х); number of fl u patients and the relationship of the • Average annual rainfall (х). investigated trait with the average of air temperature in the territory of the Russian Federation is All data were taken for .

  A      A multifactor analysis of fl u shown. Data were taken monthly date in the period from  to . Constructed equation for correlation of dynamic series al- incidence lows to predict the level of fl u patients in the following periods based on the factors score, included in the model. Key words: incidence of ARVI and infl uenza, Russian Federa- tion territory, regression analysis method, linear model, the infl uence of each selected factor on the resultative feature, seasonal factor, dynamic series.

   I. M, Q  M C A     

T  A linear model was constructed, because the multiple correla- Y tion coeffi cient is .. Y T  X , Coeffi cients X , Y -, X , Х , X , Х , X , Х -, X , Х , X , Х -, X -, X , Based on the values of the coeffi cients, presented in Table , the equation of linear multiple regression is derived: The analysis of the correlation matrix allowed to identify 

factors that have the greatest interconnection with the response Y = .*X + .*X + .*X – variable, these are factors Х, Х, Х, Х, Х. The remaining fac- .*X – . tors were removed because they have a weak correlation with the The response variable equation shows the relationship between response variable. During the analysis, the multicollinearity of the selected factors, namely the number of people using public factors X and X (.) was revealed. In this regard, one of the transport, the number of autoimmune diseases per , pop- factors, namely X, was excluded from the model. ulation, average temperature, average humidity, cost of products This interconnection can be explained by the fact that with in- improving immune system creasing birth rates, the number of people using public transport Based on the data obtained in the model, follows these con- also increases. clusions: In addition to the above factors, factors that show the number of medical workers per , people (correlation coeffi cient • If the values of factor X (the number of people using public .), average salary (correlation coeffi cient .), average annu- transport) change by  unit, the response variable Y (the num- al rainfall (mm) (correlation coeffi cient .) were also not in- ber of people with ARVI and inﬂ uenza) changes by . units. cluded in the model. They were removed from the model due to • If the values of factor X (the number of autoimmune dis- a weak interconnection with the response variable. eases per , people) change by  unit, the response The ﬁ nal model includes  factors, each of which is closely re- variable Y changes by . units. lated to the response variable. • If the values of factor X (average temperature) change by For further research use the tool “Regression”.  unit, the response variable of Y is ,. units. • If the values of factor X (average humidity) change by T   unit, the response variable Y changes to . units. Regression statistics • If the values of factor X (cost of lemons per kg) change by Multiple R , R square ,  unit, the response variable Y changes by . units. Adjusted R square , Based on the values of the coeffi cient of determination (R-square), Standard Error , it can be argued that in % of cases a change in the response Observations  variable is due to variations in the selected factors.

   I. M, Q  M C A     

To identify the infl uence of factors, standardized coeffi cients 35000 were calculated. 30000 T  25000 y = -5210,1t + 23850 Regression statistics R; = 0,2612 20000 Multiple R , y = 3825t - 93889 y = -2474,7t + 40247 R = 0,9974 y = 94,39t + 3220,6 ; R square , 15000 R; = 0,5904 R; = 0,4668 y = -269,35t + 13881 Adjusted R square , y = 89,238t + 4447,8 R; = 0,6058 10000 Standard Error , R; = 0,5059 y = -2222,4t + 56244 y = 1516t - 54307 R; = 0,9997 R; = 0,9931 Observations  5000 T  0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Coeffi cient Y-intersection , F. . The number of infected with ARVI and infl uenza X” , X’’ -, able, and actual levels of time series y (the number of cases) and x X’’ -, (air temperature) were used as the dependent variable. X’’ , Fig.  shows the result of trend building y = .x–.x + X’’ -,  and trend forecasting for the time series “The incidence of While comparing standardized coeffi cients, was found that the ARVI and Infl uenza”. A second-order polynomial, a parabola, was number of people using public transport has the greatest impact chosen as the approximating function, using which the predic- on the number of people with ARVI and infl uenza, due to the fact tion was made two steps ahead. The value of the coeffi cient of  that it signifi cantly exceeds the remaining indicators. determination is R = ., which indicates that a small fraction In addition, trend lines were constructed to describe the patterns of the variation of the attribute Y is taken into account in the contained in investigated time series. Modeling trend and function model. While studying the graph, it was found that the largest parameters were determined using the least squares method, where surge of diseases falls to January-March, then the data stabilize. time (months from  to ) was used as an independent vari- Also an analysis of the infl uence of the seasonal factor on the number of infected with ARVI and infl uenza throughout Russia 60000 for – was made. 50000 For a more accurate analysis, data for this period were taken y = 22,759t2 - 1169,3t + 16350 R; = 0,165 by month. 40000 Smoothing of values was performed using the moving average 30000 method. As a result, smoothed levels were obtained, refl ecting real indicators with a canceled eff ect of seasonality. 20000 The following conclusions were highlighted, based on the sea- 10000 sonally adjusted data in Table :

0 . Every year in the period from May to November there is a 135791113151719212325272931333537 stagnation of indicators. The number of cases does not ex- F.  ceed the norm.

   I. M, Q  M C A     

0 . Every year in the period from May to November there is a 135791113151719212325272931333537 stagnation of indicators. The number of cases does not ex- F.  ceed the norm.

. The period from January to April indicates that among the . The rate of fall and the interval of fall are in inverse rela- population of Russia there is a clear deviation from the tionship with each other, that is, the longer the period of norm. decline in incidence, the faster people recover. . Growth intervals and rates of fall have a high direct rela- T  tionship between themselves, that is, the longer the inci-    ,   dence interval, the faster people fall ill  ,    ,    ,  , Thus, having the data of the next period at a turning point, it is  ,  ,  , possible to predict the rate of change of the value and the peri-  ,  ,  , od of time during which this occurs.  ,  ,  , To identify the dependence of the infl uence of the average  ,  ,  , temperature on the number of infected with ARVI and infl uenza,  ,  ,  , an analysis, which showed a high correlation and the inverse de-  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  , pendence of time series, was carried out.  ,  ,   For further analysis, the number of infected with ARVI and in-  ,    , fl uenza was indicated as Y, and the average temperature — as X.    ,   T  T  xy x Fall interval Fall rate Growth interval Growth rate y -,  Fall interval  Fall rate -,  Table  shows the correlation of the dynamic series, the result Growth interval -, ,  of which was the conclusion that with an increase in the average Growth rate -, -, -, 

Next task of our research was to ﬁ nd out whether the subse- 60000 quent prediction of the number of cases is possible. This decision was made because the general nature of the processes is not de- 50000 y = -530,75x + 6526,6 scribed by a single trend and because of this we could not make 40000 R; = 0,1949 a prediction. Thus, based on the correlation matrix derived in Ta- ble , it is possible to draw the following conclusions: 30000

. Intervals of falling and growth rates have a high inverse 20000 relationship between themselves, that is, the greater the growth rate of the diseased is, the lower is the interval of 10000

falling and vice versa. The longer the recovery interval, 0 the slower people get sick . The growth interval and the growth rate of patients have -10000 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 an inverse relationship, that is, the incidence rate is re- cruited in a shorter period. F. 

   I. M, Q  M C A     

. Intervals of falling and growth rates have a high inverse 20000 relationship between themselves, that is, the greater the growth rate of the diseased is, the lower is the interval of 10000

   I. M, Q  M C A      monthly air temperature, the number of infected becomes less . Hand disinfection after being in public transport and vice versa. This dependence is manifested in % of cases. . Wearing a protective mask for the sick to prevent airborne transmission of the disease to other citizens. T  . If possible, greater use of personal transport Regression statistics . Lower prices for citrus products during epidemics Multiple R , . R square , Active use of agents that increase immunity at a time Adjusted R square , when the air temperature is low and its humidity is high. Standart Error , . Vaccination of people with anti-ﬂ u drugs Observations  . Reducing the price of vitamin preparations

T  Coeffi - Standard t-sta- Lower Lower Top R P-value Top % cient error tistics % ,% ,% Y-inter- , , , , , , , , . https://www.rosminzdrav.ru section t -, , -, , -, -, -, -, . http://rospotrebnadzor.ru/activities/statistical-materials/ x -, , -, , -, -, -, -, . http://ab-centre.ru/news/ceny-na-limony-v-rossii- Dynamic Series Relationship Equation: v--godu-dannye-na-oktyabr y=,–,x-t . https://russia.duck.consulting/maps// C . http://investorschool.ru/srednyaya-zarplata-v-rossii-po-re- gionam-v--godu Thus, based on the results of the study, it was found that the use of people by public transport has the greatest impact on the number of people with infl uenza and ARVI in the regions of Rus- sia. These diseases are transmitted by airborne droplets, and in public transport people have constant contact with others, including those, who are sick. Such factors as the number of autoimmune diseases per , people, the average air temperature, the average air humidity, and the cost of lemons per  kg have a lower impact on the number of infected. The lowest infl uence on the response variable has a factor that shows the average humidity of the air, other factors have an equivalent eff ect on the number of people who have fl u and ARVI in Russia. It is worth noting that the largest number of infected were found in Moscow, Moscow Region, St. Petersburg, the Republic of Tatarstan, the Sverdlovsk Region and the Chelyabinsk Region. To reduce the infl uence of these factors on the response variable, conclusions were made on the following measures:

   I. M, Q  M C A      monthly air temperature, the number of infected becomes less . Hand disinfection after being in public transport and vice versa. This dependence is manifested in % of cases. . Wearing a protective mask for the sick to prevent airborne transmission of the disease to other citizens. T  . If possible, greater use of personal transport Regression statistics . Lower prices for citrus products during epidemics Multiple R , . R square , Active use of agents that increase immunity at a time Adjusted R square , when the air temperature is low and its humidity is high. Standart Error , . Vaccination of people with anti-ﬂ u drugs Observations  . Reducing the price of vitamin preparations

  A       Key words: life expectancy, correlation and regression analy- Analysis of the factors sis, multiple regression model, the level of signiﬁ cance, correla- inﬂ uencing life expectancy tion co-effi ciency.

R Life expectancy considerably refl ects life conditions in a certain country. As for world statistics, Russia falls behind many developed countries and the essential fact that should be paid attention to is that this gap does not narrow (project «The latest trends in V P, demographic development of Russia and their consideration in so- A S cio-economic forecasting. According to the UN (), Russia is on Students the th position in the international life-expectancy ranking. Russian Presidential Academy of National In addition to the macroeconomic indicator, it is essential to Economy and Public Administration consider the situation within the country itself. Regarding Rus- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences sia, high intraregional diff erences can be noticed and, according to the data for , reach  years. S O, The most positive trends can be noted for the Republic of the Associate Professor Northern Caucasus as well as for such huge cities as Moscow and Russian Presidential Academy of National Saint-Petersburg. At the top of the list is the Republic of Ingushe- Economy and Public Administration tia with life-expectancy of , years on average. Nevertheless, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences a signifi cant number of the territories of the Russian Federation is characterized by rather low coeffi cients and the lowest of them A equals to , and belongs to the Republic of Tuva. The data collection and the analysis of the problems raised can The factors infl uencing life expectancy have been be complicated by underreporting of deaths and the existence of analyzed in this work. Correlation and regression religious and sociocultural traditions within each ethnic group. analysis and the analysis of the relationship be- Despite the fact that, according to the Max Plank Institute for tween a dependent variable and independent varia- demographic Research (“factors of life expectancy”) no factors bles (suggested factors) have been conducted and were revealed except for hereditary ones that could have an im- the regression equation has been constructed to pact on life expectancy, the consideration of the problem is still identify the main factors infl uencing the life expec- worth paying special attention to and additional research. tancy. The level of signifi cance of the factors includ- Hence, the identifi cation of the factors that infl uence life ex- ed in the multiple regression model has been esti- pectancy rates most signifi cantly as well as the determination of mated. The factors mostly infl uencing life expectan- the strength of relationship of the numerical factors with the re- cy have been identifi ed. The dependent variable has sulting factor will give an idea of what measures can be taken in been considered in dynamics. The results for vari- order to increase life expectancy rates in the Russian Federation. ous countries have been compared and the reasons In this research the factors aff ecting the average life expectan- for the diff erences identifi ed have been analyzed. cy in the regions of the Russian Federation were analyzed and the

  A       Key words: life expectancy, correlation and regression analy- Analysis of the factors sis, multiple regression model, the level of signiﬁ cance, correla- inﬂ uencing life expectancy tion co-effi ciency.

   I. M, Q  M C A       assessment of the impact of each of them on the resulting factor In the table  there are coeffi cients of the relationship with life was conducted. expectancy. They all have a negative sign, which indicates the ex- In order to carry out the analysis of the reasons for such a sit- istence of an inverse relationship. The situation is entirely consist- uation in Russia,  factors were selected: ent with logical assumptions. Nonetheless, numerical confi rma- tions are required. Therefore, the next step is regression analysis. •  factors — crimes of various severity levels T . Regression statistics •  factors — diseases SUMMARY OUTPUT •  factors — socio-economic factors Regression statistics •  factors — ecology Multiple R , •  factors — consumption of alcohol, tobacco and drugs R-square , Furthermore, by using the method of correlation analysis, the Adjusted R-square , factors that most strongly infl uence the dependent variable were Standard error , selected. Multicollinearity was got rid of. Observations  Hence, the following factors were left: ANOVA df SS MS F Signifi cance F • x (the number of crimes of the second degree); Regression  , , , , • x (the number of alcohol addicts); Residual  , , • x (the number of people suff ering from tuberculosis); Total  , • x (divorce rates);

• x (the number of diseases revealed during pregnancy); Based on the data obtained, it can be concluded that the linear

• x (the number of minors (under-aged youngsters) having model is working as the coeffi cient of determination equals to , suff ered from criminal actions) R and shows that % of the variance in y is predictable form the selected factors. In addition, the diff erence between the coeffi cient Other factors were not used for the reason of low correlation with of determination and adjusted coeffi cient of determination is not the resulting factor (life expectancy) or for the reason of multi- signiﬁ cant, which also conﬁ rms the viability of the model. collinearity. T . Regression T . Correlation analysis Coeffi cients Standard t– P-Value Y — average error statistics life expectancy y–intercept , , , , y — the average life expectancy  x  –the number of crimes of -, , -, , x  —the number of crimes of the second degree per   -, the second degree population x –the number of alcohol -, , -, , x –the number of alcohol addicts per   population -, addicts x x –the number of people -, , -, , –the number of people suff ering from tuberculosis per -,    population suff ering from tuberculosis

x х –divorce rates -, , -, ,  –divorce rates per   population -, 

x х –diseases revealed during -, , -, ,  –diseases revealed during pregnancy per   -,  population pregnancy

х х —the number of minors -, , -, ,  —the number of minors having suff ered from criminal -,  actions having suff ered from criminal actions

   I. M, Q  M C A       assessment of the impact of each of them on the resulting factor In the table  there are coeffi cients of the relationship with life was conducted. expectancy. They all have a negative sign, which indicates the ex- In order to carry out the analysis of the reasons for such a sit- istence of an inverse relationship. The situation is entirely consist- uation in Russia,  factors were selected: ent with logical assumptions. Nonetheless, numerical confi rma- tions are required. Therefore, the next step is regression analysis. •  factors — crimes of various severity levels T . Regression statistics •  factors — diseases SUMMARY OUTPUT •  factors — socio-economic factors Regression statistics •  factors — ecology Multiple R , •  factors — consumption of alcohol, tobacco and drugs R-square , Furthermore, by using the method of correlation analysis, the Adjusted R-square , factors that most strongly infl uence the dependent variable were Standard error , selected. Multicollinearity was got rid of. Observations  Hence, the following factors were left: ANOVA df SS MS F Signifi cance F • x (the number of crimes of the second degree); Regression  , , , , • x (the number of alcohol addicts); Residual  , , • x (the number of people suff ering from tuberculosis); Total  , • x (divorce rates);

• x (the number of diseases revealed during pregnancy); Based on the data obtained, it can be concluded that the linear

x х –divorce rates -, , -, ,  –divorce rates per   population -, 

   I. M, Q  M C A      

Hence, after making all the required calculations, the linear 80 x30 multiple model was constructed: 75 y = -0,4235x30 + 73,49 y=,–,х–,х–,х–,х– 70 R; = 0,3945

,х–,х 65 In order to exclude the probability of unnecessary factors being 60 added to the model, a stepwise regression was made. With the 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 addition of each successive factor all indicators improve, which means that all the factors considered have an impact on the de- P  pendent variable y.

85 SUMMARY OUTPUT х SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х X 2 y = -0,1892x2 + 74,755 Regression statistics Regression statistics 80 R; = 0,422 Multiple R , Multiple R , 75

R-square , R-square , 70 Adjusted R-square , Adjusted R-square , 65 Standard error , Standard error , Observations  Observations  60 0 10203040506070

SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х, х P  Regression statistics Regression statistics Multiple R , Multiple R , Therefore, it makes sense to create a mixed model. The next step is R-square , R-square , to determine the form of connection of the dependent variable (life Adjusted R-square , Adjusted R-square , expectancy) with independent variables (factors). Standard error , Standard error , As the result of work with trend lines, it was found that factors Observations  Observations   and  have logarithmic trend while all the remaining ones have linear trend. SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х, SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х, х, In order to improve the model, the factors were logarithmed х, х х, х in accordance with the form of connection, regression analysis Regression statistics Regression statistics was conducted. Multiple R , Multiple R , T  R-square , R-square , SUMMARY OUTPUT Adjusted R-square , Adjusted R-square , Regression statistics Standard error , Standard error , Multiple R , Observations  Observations  R-square , In order to increase the accuracy of the research, it was decided Adjusted R-square , to improve the model. The construction of the exponential model is Standard error , impossible due to the presence of zeroes among the empirical data. Observations 

   I. M, Q  M C A      

Coeffi cients Standard t-statistics P-Value SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х, х error Regression statistics Regression statistics y-intercept , , , , Multiple R , Multiple R , x the number -, , -, , - R-square , R-square , of crimes of the second degree Adjusted R-square , Adjusted R-square , x -the number -, , -, , Standard error , Standard error , of alcohol addicts Observations  Observations  x -the number -, , -, , of people suff ering from tuberculosis y=,–,х–,х–,х–,lnх– х -, , -, ,  –divorce rates ,lnx–,x х  –diseases revealed -, , -, , during pregnancy As it can be noticed, with the addition of each subsequent factor х — the number -, , -, ,   both R and R improve, which means that all factors are impor- of minors having suff ered from criminal tant. Factor x  also improves the model, therefore, it has not actions been excluded. In addition, the diff erence between R  and adjust- It can be noticed that the coeffi cient of determination has in- ed R is not more than ,%, which also conﬁ rms the effi ciency of creased in comparison with the linear model. Nevertheless, fac- the model. tor x has P-value more than , which indicates the absence Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the model was carried of statistical signiﬁ cance. out. The average value of the data for each factor was taken. Then Consequently, there necessity of including the factor into the the value was increased by %, %, % and put into the mod- model is questioned. el in order to see how much the value of the resulting factor (life The, a stepwise regression was made in order to exclude the expectancy) will change. probability of adding unnecessary factors to the model. Thus, analyzing the sensitivity of the dependent variable to factor x (diseases revealed during pregnancy per   population), SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х SUMMARY OUTPUT х  it was noted that an increase in the value of the factors by % will Regression statistics Regression statistics lead to a decrease in the resulting factors by ,% and an increase Multiple R , Multiple R , R-square , R-square , of the same factor by % and % will lead to a decrease in the Adjusted R-square , Adjusted R-square , factor value of the resulting factor by ,% and % respectively.

Standard error , Standard error , As for the sensitivity of the resulting factor to factor x  (the Observations  Observations  number of minors having suff ered from criminal actions), it was found that a change (increase) in the average value of the factors SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х, х, SUMMARY OUTPUT х, х, х, х, х, by %, % and % will lead to a decrease in the value of the х х resulting factor by ,%, ,% and ,% respectively. Regression statistics Regression statistics Multiple R , Multiple R , Furthermore, the factors that have a linear relationship with R-square , R-square , the resulting factor were analyzed.

Adjusted R-square , Adjusted R-square , Thus, an increase in the average value of the factor x (the Standard error , Standard error , number of crimes of the second degree) by %, % and % Observations  Observations  will lead to a decrease in life expectancy by ,%, ,% and ,% respectively.

   I. M, Q  M C A      

As for the factor х  (the number of alcohol addicts), the in- ,  , crease in the value of the factor by %, % and % will lead to ,  , a decrease in life expectancy by ,%, % and % respectively. ,  , ,  , When checking the sensitivity of the model to factor x  (the number of people suff ering from tuberculosis), it was found that ,  , ,  , an increase in the average value of the factor by %, % and ,  , % will lead to a decrease in life expectancy by ,%, % and ,  , % respectively. ,  ,

As for the factor x (divorce rates), its increase by %, % ,  , and % will result in a decrease of life expectancy by ,%, ,% Furthermore, the graphs of the dependence of each factor on and ,% respectively. time were constructed. Based on the data, the forecast was made The second part of the research is dedicated to the factor anal- for each country. ysis in dynamics. There were chosen two factors in dynamics (x- The ﬁ rst graph shows life expectancy in Russia. alcohol consumption, y-life expectancy) in the period from  to . 74 73 y = 0,4832x - 902,16 The same factors were analyzed for  countries: Great Britain, R; = 0,9812 Germany, Italy, Hungary and Romania. 72 71 T . Factors in dynamics 70 Life Year Alcohol consumption 69 y = 0,86x - 1651 R; = 0,9732 expectancy per person a year 68 ,  , 67 ,  , 66 y = -1,37x + 2796,1 R = 0,8541 65 ; ,  , y = 0,0738x2 - 295,6x + 296023 64   , R; = 0,9121 63 ,  , 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ,  , ,  , L   R ,  , ,  , 18

,  , 16 ,  , 14 ,  , y = 0,296x - 581,71 R; = 0,8235   , 12 ,  , ,  , 10 y = -0,6082x + 1236,9 ,  , 8 R; = 0,8649 ,  , ,  , 6 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020   , A     R

   I. M, Q  M C A      

The absence of a linear trend on both graphs can be clearly In Great Britain there was a stable growth in life expectancy, seen. It can be noticed that there was a sharp decline in life ex- though during the last  years the average life expectancy has pectancy in the s, which is connected to the crisis that took been at approximately the same level. There is no linear trend in place in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. this part of the graph and no other trend can be constructed. For Nevertheless, life expectancy has been increasing over the past this reason, the average for  these years was calculated, and it  years and the growth is expected in the nearest future. Accord- amounts to ,, which means that in the nearest future the av- ing to the forecast based on the graphs, in  life expectancy erage life expectancy will be around  years. will be , years and in  people in Russia will reach the age As far as alcohol consumption is concerned, since  it has of , on average. As for alcohol consumption, there were con- been gradually decreasing. According to the forecast for  and siderable increases and decreases due to the same reasons. None-  years, it will be approximately at the same level. In  peo- theless, over the past  years alcohol consumption has been de- ple are expected to drink , liters per person and in –, . creasing though there is a slight increase in . Anyway, ac- The next country is Germany. cording to the forecast, in the nearest future alcohol consumption In Germany the situation is similar to Great Britain. Life ex- will be on decrease and in  it will be , liters per person and pectancy was on the rise but during the last  years it has re- in  it will decrease to , liters per person. mained approximately at the same level. Therefore, the average Furthermore, these factors (life expectancy and alcohol con- was calculated as a trend cannot be constructed here. The aver- sumption) were analyzed for European countries. age equals ,, which means that in the nearest future people The ﬁ rst one is Great Britain. will leave up to – years in general. The ﬁ gure is close to that

Great Britain - life expectancy Germany - life expectancy 82 82 81 y = 0,2407t - 403,67 81 R; = 0,9882 y = 0,2153x - 352,72 80 80 R; = 0,9834 79 y = 0,2754t - 472,83 79 R; = 0,9879 78 78 77 77 76 76 75 75 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 74 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Great Britain - alcohol consumption 12 Germany - alcohol consumption y = 0,2114x - 416,4 R; = 0,7875 15 11 y = 0,3593x - 708,69 R; = 0,9542 14 10 y = -0,1488t + 310,42 y = -0,2595t + 531,75 13 R; = 0,922 9 y = 0,0952t - 180,58 R = 0,9429 ; R; = 0,8758 12 8 y = -0,161t + 334,76 11 R; = 0,8756 7 10 6 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020    I. M, Q  M C A       of Great Britain. As for alcohol consumption, it has been decreas- Romania - life expectancy ing throughout almost the whole period, although during the last 76 75  years it has been at the same level. According to the forecast, it y = 0,2457t - 420,72 74 will be like that in the nearest future: in  alcohol consump- R; = 0,9279 73 y = 0,2211t - 370,6 tion will be , while in  it will be ,. 72 y = -0,1142t + 297,1 R; = 0,8224 R; = 0,8733 The next country is Italy. 71 In Italy the situation is also similar to the previous two coun- 70 tries. There is no linear trend, life expectancy has been on in- 69 crease for a long time, though during the last fi ve years fi gures 68 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 there is neither increase not decrease. Hence, similar to Great Britain and Germany the average fi gure was also calculated. It ac- Romania – alcohol consumption counts for ,, which means that in the nearest future Italians 14 13 will live till  years on average. 12 Alcohol consumption has been on decrease, though there is no 11 linear trend on the graph: there were decreases, then slight in- 10 creases and then decreases again. Within the last several years 9 8 y = 0,2067t - 406,39 alcohol consumption per person has not changed signifi cantly R; = 0,7861 7 and remained at the same level. According to the forecast, in  6 it will amount to , and in –,. 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 The next country is Romania. Italy - life expectancy In Romania the situation with life expectancy is a bit diff erent 85 84 from that in all the previous countries. There is a decline in the y = 0,2052x - 330,55 83 R; = 0,9696 s and then life expectancy has been increasing. According to 82 y = 0,2713x - 463,05 the forecast, the growth in life expectancy is anticipated: in  81 R; = 0,98 80 it will be , on average and by  this fi gure will increase to 79 ,. 78 Alcohol consumption in Romania has been diff erent through- 77 76 out the period and there is no linear trend on the whole graph 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 similar to the previous countries. Nevertheless, alcohol consump-

Italy - alcohol consumption tion is expected to be on the rise. According to the forecast, in 11  it will amount to , liters per person and in  it will be

10 ,. y = -0,2612t + 530,84 The next country is Hungary. 9 R; = 0,9598 y = 0,0567t - 106,84 R; = 0,4292 In Hungary there has been a stable growth in life expectancy 8 and it is likely to remain this way in the nearest future. Accord- 7 y = -0,2718t + 553,62 ing to the forecast, in  Hungarian will reach the age of , R; = 0,9582 6 on average and by  this ﬁ gure will increase to ,. 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

   I. M, Q  M C A       of Great Britain. As for alcohol consumption, it has been decreas- Romania - life expectancy ing throughout almost the whole period, although during the last 76 75  years it has been at the same level. According to the forecast, it y = 0,2457t - 420,72 74 will be like that in the nearest future: in  alcohol consump- R; = 0,9279 73 y = 0,2211t - 370,6 tion will be , while in  it will be ,. 72 y = -0,1142t + 297,1 R; = 0,8224 R; = 0,8733 The next country is Italy. 71 In Italy the situation is also similar to the previous two coun- 70 tries. There is no linear trend, life expectancy has been on in- 69 crease for a long time, though during the last fi ve years fi gures 68 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 there is neither increase not decrease. Hence, similar to Great Britain and Germany the average fi gure was also calculated. It ac- Romania – alcohol consumption counts for ,, which means that in the nearest future Italians 14 13 will live till  years on average. 12 Alcohol consumption has been on decrease, though there is no 11 linear trend on the graph: there were decreases, then slight in- 10 creases and then decreases again. Within the last several years 9 8 y = 0,2067t - 406,39 alcohol consumption per person has not changed signifi cantly R; = 0,7861 7 and remained at the same level. According to the forecast, in  6 it will amount to , and in –,. 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 The next country is Romania. Italy - life expectancy In Romania the situation with life expectancy is a bit diff erent 85 84 from that in all the previous countries. There is a decline in the y = 0,2052x - 330,55 83 R; = 0,9696 s and then life expectancy has been increasing. According to 82 y = 0,2713x - 463,05 the forecast, the growth in life expectancy is anticipated: in  81 R; = 0,98 80 it will be , on average and by  this fi gure will increase to 79 ,. 78 Alcohol consumption in Romania has been diff erent through- 77 76 out the period and there is no linear trend on the whole graph 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 similar to the previous countries. Nevertheless, alcohol consump-

Italy - alcohol consumption tion is expected to be on the rise. According to the forecast, in 11  it will amount to , liters per person and in  it will be

   I. M, Q  M C A      

Hungary -life expectancy tries and, according to the forecast, by  alcohol consumption 77 in Russia will reduce to , liters per person. 76 In order to improve the situation with life expectancy in the 75 y = 0,2671t - 462,62 74 R; = 0,9462 y = 0,1467t - 220,06 Russian Federation, some measures should be taken. First of all, 73 R; = 0,6848 the control over the sale of alcohol should be strengthened as 72 y = 0,2112t - 351,47 R = 0,8637 71 ; there is much alcohol of low quality that is sold illegally. 70 Moreover, the sale and drinking of alcohol in all public places 69 should be limited. The amount of the ﬁ ne should be increased. 68 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Besides, the government should also strengthen social support

Hungary – alcohol consumption for pregnant women by increasing social payments. 17 The implementation of the measures given above is bound to 16 improve the situation in the country. 15 y = -0,141t + 295,31 R; = 0,6947 14 R 13 y = -0,3955t + 802,47 . Alcohol consumption (). [Online]. Available at: https:// 12 R; = 0,8828 gateway.euro.who.int/ru/indicators/hfa_–-pure-alco- 11 hol-consumption-litres-per-capita-age-plus/ 10 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 visualizations/#id= . Alcohol consumption (). [Online]. Available at: http:// Alcohol consumption in Hungary is higher than in other ac.gov.ru/publications// countries, although there is a decrease. According to the fore- . Alcohol consumption in the long term. [Online]. Available at: cast, in  it will amount to , and in  it will be , per https://ourworldindata.org/alcohol-consumption person. . Country comparison: life expectancy. [Online]. Available at: Both Romania and Hungary are closer to Russia then Great https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ Britain, Germany and Italy in terms of life expectancy. rankorder/rank.html C   . Federal State Statistics Service [Online]. Available: http://www.gks. ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/en/ﬁ gures/population/ Summing up, the main factors inﬂ uencing life expectancy are the . Life expectancy and well-being. [Online]. Available at: https:// number of diseases revealed during pregnancy, alcohol consump- www.health.gov.au/internet/publications/publishing.nsf/Con- tion and the number of young people who have suff ered from tent/oatsih-hpf--toc~tier~life-exp-wellb~ criminal actions. . Life expectancy by country . [Online]. Available at: Life expectancy in Russia will be on the rise in the nearest fu- . http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/life-expectancy/ ture, in  people will reach the age of ,. Nevertheless, de- . Liters of alcohol consumed per capita in the United Kingdom spite the fact that the average life expectancy in Russia has been (UK) from  to  (). [Online] Available at: https:// increasing, it is still lower than in other countries. As for alcohol www.statista.com/statistics//alcohol-consumption-in- consumption, it is also lower than in a number of European coun- liters-per-head-in-the-united-kingdom/

   I. M, Q  M C A      

  A      R The ﬁ ndings of the research established a possibility of the fu- Analysis of road traffi c ture improvement of road conditions for Russian drivers which accidents in Russia can be accomplished by an eff ective assessment of the elucidated factors. Key words: road traffi c accidents, regression-correlation analysis, time series

I D P, Student The goal of the following research was to identify and analyze the Russian Presidential Academy of National various factors that can aff ect the number of road traffi c acci- Economy and Public Administration dents (RTAs) in Russia. Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences Therefore, the following article is based upon the results of research of the components inﬂ uencing road traffi c incidents. Pre- S O, cisely, the regression-correlation analysis was introduced to provide an insight into the issue and test a hypothesis formulated Associate Professor on an idea that a number of road traffi c accidents is highly de- Russian Presidential Academy of National pendent on road density. Economy and Public Administration First and foremost, this paper acknowledges various compo- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences nents inﬂ uencing road incidents by viewing the data for the  A year collected over the Russian federal subjects. Throughout the research, it was crucial to constantly test the validity of the the- This paper offers research of various components ory by using the coeffi cient of determination and Fisher’s ratio which significantly affected a number of road test. Having reviewed both linear and exponential models the de- traffic accidents throughout the federal subjects cision was made to examine the linear model since the identify- of the Russian Federation in the  year. The ing criteria demonstrated better data. most crucial factors were recognized through the Consequently, analysis of time series was developed by exam-

implementation of correlation and regression ining monthly data for nine years — from  to . During analysis. The linear model was built respectively. the work the data was cleared of seasonality and both additive Moreover, this work demonstrates the depend- and multiplicative models were constructed. Furthermore, ence of the investigated factor on the components monthly material was constricted to annual to examine the time presented. lag of one year and its inﬂ uence on the variables. Finally, by Consequently, dynamic series were reviewed to building a linear model and putting aside a time factor, the true detect the existence of seasonality and then the correlation between the number of traffi c accidents and road data were cleared of it. The most interconnected density was recognized. time series were related to each other to build a In the end, a conclusion was formulated to summarize the function. ﬁ ndings of the research.

  A      R The ﬁ ndings of the research established a possibility of the fu- Analysis of road traffi c ture improvement of road conditions for Russian drivers which accidents in Russia can be accomplished by an eff ective assessment of the elucidated factors. Key words: road traffi c accidents, regression-correlation analysis, time series

   I. M, Q  M C A      R

A     el’s credibility and fi nding the coeffi cients which illustrate the      RTA correlation ratio between the factors: T . Regression In order to reach the primary objective and collect the required Regression statistics data, all the necessary information was found with the help of such Multiple R . reliable sources as the offi cial website of State Traffi c Safety In- R-square . spectorate (STSI) and the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. Standardized R-square . The original version of the research included such variables as Standardized error . alcohol consumption per capita, government funding of roads, Observations  road mileage, road density, price of driver’s training course, av- F F-test erage precipitation, average winter temperature and the number . . of citizen from  to  years old. Coeffi cients T . Linear model: Correlation Matrix Y-intercept . Number Government Average Road Government funding of roads . Average precipitation . of RTAs (Y) funding precipita- density (X) of roads (X Road density -. ) tion (X) Number of RTAs (Y)  Number of citizens from  to  years old . Government funding .  The coeffi cient of determination equals ., which suggests of roads (rubles) (X ) Average precipitation . -.  that in % of cases changes in the dependent variable are caused (millimeters) (X ) by the factors included in the model. Moreover, the signifi cance Road density (km of . -. .  of the R-square is close to the standardized R-square which con- road per  sq. km fi rms the model’s accuracy. Additionally, the value of the F-test of land area) (X ) Number of citizens . . . . is extremely low which also indicates the reliability of the linear from  to  years model. old (X )  Regression equation:

Nevertheless, most of the components were excluded after- .  –. .

Y = X + X + X + X + . ward due to the multicollinearity which jeopardized the validity By and large, the multifactorial analysis was viable and therefore of the model by making the factors correlate more with each oth- it was decided to continue the research by moving to time series er than with the dependent variable. and delving into the connection between the number of road Thereby, the released version of the linear model was com- traffi c accidents and road density. prised of four factors to study which eff ect they have on the number of RTAs. A      The following table represents a correlation matrix demon-     strating which components correlate with the dependent variable to the highest degree. Based on the results of the conducted analysis the work was car- Subsequently, the correlation matrix was followed by the re- ried on by studying time series and the interdependence between gression statistics with the purpose of conﬁ rming the linear mod- the number of RTAs and the road density.

   I. M, Q  M C A      R

Nevertheless, most of the components were excluded after- .  –. .

Multiplicative model The capital of Russia was chosen to illustrate the dynamics y = -5.7324x + 1072.5 due to the fact that the number of RTAs in Moscow prevails in 1600 R; = 0.0074 comparison with the other regions of the country. 1400 y = 18.819x + 454.05 R; = 0.4114 Subsequently, monthly data for nine years (–) was y = -44.981x + 3158.8 1200 y = -2.6464x + 937.91 y = -32.886x + 2126 R; = 0.8177 R; = 0.0034 collected to construct the graph of the dynamics of seasonality 1000 R; = 0.738 coeffi cients of RTAs’ number which were crucial to proceed with 800 the task at hand: y = -44.852x + 1802.3 600 R; = 0.5342 y = -13.052x + 1269.5 T . Moscow: Seasonality R; = 0.0775 y = 20.828x - 487.22 400 R; = 0.4397 Seasonality y = 46.459x + 787.68 y = 27.247x - 558.95 200 R; = 0.1241 R; = 0.6007 January . 0 February . 0 1020304050607080 March . April . Additive model 1800 y = -88.919x + 1894.5 May . R; = 0.3747 1600 June . y = -6.2304x + 1075.7 1400 y = -20.582x + 1356.9 y = 20.173x - 419.01 July . R; = 0.023 1200 R; = 0.2414 R; = 0.4575 y = 25.912x - 464.11 August . 1000 R; = 0.5646 September . 800 y = 21.468x + 386.14 October . 600 R; = 0.4921 y = 38.66x + 454.95 y = 2.6744x + 592 November . 400 y = -34.785x + 2219.2 R = 0.0034 R = 0.9067 y = -45.007x + 3172.5 ; ; R; = 0.7555 December . 200 y = 56.318x + 767.74 R; = 0.8099 R; = 0.1626 T . Moscow: Correlation Matrix 0 0 1020304050607080 Road density RTAs Road density  T . Multiplicative and Additive Models RTAs -. 

The correlation coeffi cient between the rows showed an out- RTAs (Y) 13000 standing value of –.. A negative value of the correlation coeffi cient means an inverse relationship between the series. More 12000 specifi cally, it represents that the number of RTAs decreases 11000 when road density increases respectively. 10000 In order to build a trend, cleared of the seasonal component, Y = -433.55t + 883806 9000 a moving average and centered moving average of both rows were R; = 0.851 8000 found and both multiplicative and additive models were con- 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 structed to demonstrate the fl uctuations of RTAs throughout the duration of nine years: T . Moscow: Time Series

   I. M, Q  M C A      R

Road density (X) However, it was necessary to implement a chain-base method 2700 with a one year lag to determine if the coeffi cient of determina- 2600 tion ascends because of a particular time interval: 2500 Despite the eff orts, the coeffi cient of determination remained 2400 at the same level. Therefore, it is evident that a time lag does not X = 76.488t - 151726 2300 R; = 0.8943 aff ect the eventual number of RTAs. 2200 As can be seen from the above, a hypothesis that a number of 2100 RTAs is highly dependent on the road density was disproven due 2000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 to the presence of false correlation. T . Chain-base method R   400 200 Thus wise, by summarizing the fi ndings of the research a conclu- 0 -200 sion was formulated concerning the number of RTAs on the ter- -400 ritory of Russia and Moscow in particular. Most notably, the orig- -600 inal presumption declaring that road density infl uences the road -800 ȟY = -2.199ȟX - 239.12 -1000 R; = 0.1056 traffi c accidents turned out to be invalid in dynamics. Apart from -1200 that, government funding of roads appeared to be of minor im- -1400 portance in terms of reduction of the RTAs number. Therefore, -1600 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 this may be evidence of poorly thought-out allocation of funds T . Chain-base method with a time lag (one year) towards construction or repair of roads. Hence, taking everything into consideration, it is important for Over the course of work with time series, it was discovered that the government to pay thorough attention to the quality of the the highest coeffi cient of determination is apparent with original road pavement in order to reduce the number of accidents caused observations. Consequently, two linear trends were built illus- by the roads’ condition in the future. trating factors relation on time. It can be number of RTAs was substantially decreasing from  to  in contrast with the R road density which was following an upward trend. Unfortunately, the high R-square presented on the graphs . Ovsyannikova, S. N. Econometrics/Textbook for students of the could have been a characteristic of a false correlation which was nd year of economic specialties. — Moscow: Publisher “Delo” crucial to exclude in order to reach a right verdict. Therefore, RANEPA, – pp. measures were taken to scrutinize the subject by implementing . Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation. [online]. Availa- a chain-base-method. ble at: http://docs.cntd.ru/document/ Subsequently, in spite of the initial R-square being illustrious, . Russian Federal State Statistics Service. [online]. Available at: chain-base method unraveled the true interdependence of the http://www.gks.ru/  variables equaling R = .. Hence, this value is extremely low to conclude that road density has any infl uence on the number of . State Traffi c Safety Inspectorate. [online]. Available at: https:// RTAs in dynamics. xn-adear.xn — pai/

   I. M, Q  M C A      R

  A        Key words: suicide, socio-economic factors, sensitivity, factor An empirical study of factors aff ecting suicide rate, dynamic model. aff ecting suicide rate in the Russian Federation R

Suicide in the Russian Federation is an important social problem. The study showed a high level of dependence of the level of suicide on alcohol and drug use. The connection is traced between the number of crimes and the level of suicide; suicides are committed by criminals, victims, as well as their relatives and acquaintances. The cause of suicide is also cancer and stress associated with the divorce and death of loved ones. These factors can lead to mental disorders. The level of material well-be- A S, ing is also a factor infl uencing the number of suicides in the D T country. Students Subsequently, the dependence of the number of people who Russian Presidential Academy of National committed suicide on several infl uencing factors was revealed. Economy and Public Administration As the main characteristics were taken: Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences • Number of crimes • Number of registered divorces S O, • Average salaries for each region Associate Professor • Spread of mental illness Russian Presidential Academy of National • Percentage of persons with have an Internet access Economy and Public Administration • Beer consumption Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences • Number of crimes related to drug traffi cking • Incidence of cancer A • Drug dependence The present article explores suicide rate depend- • Number of unemployed ence from a number of socio-economic factors. We All data taken as factors were given in one year. identifi ed the most signifi cant factors on the basis Analysis of the matrix of pairwise correlation coeffi cients of which a multiple relation model was developed. shows that the effi cient indicator, that is the number of suicides, We analyzed sensitivity of the dependent valuable is closely related to: to small changes in the regions included in the • X is the number of crimes related to drug traffi cking = . model. The most signifi cant factor aff ecting suicide • X-the spread of mental illness = . rate was proven to be drug consumption. We also • X-sale of beer (in liters) = . constructed a dynamic model and demonstrated its • X- drug addiction = . predictive ability.

  A        Key words: suicide, socio-economic factors, sensitivity, factor An empirical study of factors aff ecting suicide rate, dynamic model. aff ecting suicide rate in the Russian Federation R

   I. M, Q  M C A       

Using the coeffi cients taken from the correlation matrix, a linear model was constructed. The effi cient indicator was equal to %, but we were wondering if there could be more inﬂ uence. Therefore, an exponential model was constructed with the same set of factors. Change of the Change of the number of suicide -,% -,% Regression statistic Multiple R , R-square , Standardized R-square , Standard failure ,

L 

Y = ,·X + ,·X,·X + ,·X + ,·X + ,·X +

+ ,·X,·X + ,·X + ,·X + , Using the methods of regression analysis, an exponential mod-

el was constructed, the coeffi cients of which showed a greater in- cking % decrease of each variable, being equal conditions other Internet access ﬂ uence. In the exponential model, the effi cient indicator was traffi %. Also, the model was tested using the Criterion of Fisher, which was close to zero, which indicated the great importance of regression models.

E 

Regression statistic Change of the Change of the number of suicide ,% an of persons with have X-Percentage ,% of crimes related to drug X-Number Multiple R , R-square , Standardized R-square , Standard failure ,

, , –, , , , , –, , –,

Y = X ·X ·X ·X ·X ·X ·X ·X ·X ·X ·, Meanings: • X-Number of crimes • X-Number of registered divorces • X- Average salaries for each region • X-Spread of mental illness

• X-Percentage of persons with have an Internet access cking % increase of each variable, other other % increase of each variable, being equal conditions X- Number of crimesX- X-Number of registered divorces salariesX-Average X-Spread of mental illness ,% an of persons with have X-Percentage Internet access ,% ,% X-Number of registered divorces -,% Number of crimes X- -,% X-Spread of mental illness salaries X-Average -,% -,% ,% X-Beer consumption of crimes related to drug X-Number traffi ,% X-Beer consumption -,% • X-Beer consumption of cancerX-Incidence X-Drug dependenceX-Number of unemployed -,% -,% ,% of cancer X-Incidence X-Number of unemployed X-Drug dependence ,% ,% -,%

   I. M, Q  M C A       

L 

Y = ,·X + ,·X,·X + ,·X + ,·X + ,·X +

+ ,·X,·X + ,·X + ,·X + , Using the methods of regression analysis, an exponential mod-

E 

, , –, , , , , –, , –,

Additive model of the suicide quantity 2000 2000,00  1000 1000,00  0 0,00  -1000  -1000,00

 -2000 -2000,00

 -3000 -3000,00

 -4000 -4000,00  -5000,00        -5000 -30 -20 -10 0 -20 -10 0 10

• X-Number of crimes related to drug traffi cking Nonlinear trend  year lag • X-Incidence of cancer • X-Drug dependence Due to the analysis of the seasonal component, it was revealed • X-Number of unemployed that the number of suicides in winter is much less than at any other time of the year. This is due to public reasons. In winter, The model was tested for sensitivity; it means that it was checked the society is less active because of the temperature and the how the response variable would change when each factor chang- length of the daylight hours. es by %. The most interesting factors were the average wages Then both dynamic series were investigated and a non-linear and crimes related to drug traffi cking, because these have the trend was identiﬁ ed. For the analysis of the dynamic range, the greatest inﬂ uence on the number of suicides. The unemployment amount of suicide and use of drugs have been taken in the last rate seemed very interesting. With increasing such factor as un-  years. employment, the amount of suicide decreases.

Turning to the study of dynamic rows, was set the goal — to de- t X- Drug dependence Y-The number of suicide termine the relationship between the number of suicide and drug  ,  addiction. Then an Additive model was built to check for season-  ,  ality and calculate seasonal components to see in which months  ,  the suicide rate rises or falls.  ,   ,  Seasonal component  ,  January -, February -,  ,  March ,    April ,  ,  May ,  ,  June , July , During the research, the effi cient indicator was low, which in- August , September -, dicates a weak dependence. Therefore, it was decided to check October -, the connection with a lag of  year. The ﬁ gure was %, which November -, suggests that while using drugs the probability of committing December -, suicide next year is high.

   I. M, Q  M C A       

Additive model of the suicide quantity 2000 2000,00  1000 1000,00  0 0,00  -1000  -1000,00

 -2000 -2000,00

 -3000 -3000,00

 -4000 -4000,00  -5000,00        -5000 -30 -20 -10 0 -20 -10 0 10

   I. M, Q  M C

R

To address this social problem, the following measures were recommended: • Conduct a drug test in schools. • Explain to parents through conversations about the dangers of drugs. • There was also a theory that the government can inﬂ uence the level of suicide in the country by increasing the average wages in the regions.

R

. Ovsiannikova S. N. Econometrics. A study guide for students of the nd year of special economic sciences. () . Statistics for Russia [electronic resource], URL: https://russia. duck.consulting . Central Statistical Database [electronic resource], URL: http:// www.gks.ru/dbscripts/cbsd/DBInet.cgi

 N E  E I The reﬂ ection of tradition at the th anniversary of Romania. The way the tradition helps at forming the identity of the nation.

O A N Senior Lecturer Lower Danube University of Galati Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca

P-A N Student Lower Danube University of Galati Babes- Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca

A

Starting from the initial deﬁ nition, the naturalist one, tradition is something that repeats itself and forms the habit, comfort, well-being. It also traces identity. Traditions simply exists and it refers to certain undeniable values. Tradition is an emblem, a state of fact, it is self-contained and is a normative character, is “the force of a law, respected by all members of the community, by mutual agreement”. Perceived this way, tradition seen as a value presup- poses the continuity of the cultural facts in time, fa- voring the past, a past-normative, auroral, which offers patterns prone to imitation. By the means of this paper, we want to emphasize the pursue of tradition in Romania even after  years from the creation of the country and how tradition is perceived by young people, especially Romanian students. The main focus will be on the continuity of dance and manufacturing of national costumes and how these

 The reﬂ ection of tradition at the th anniversary of Romania. The way the tradition helps at forming the identity of the nation.

O A N Senior Lecturer Lower Danube University of Galati Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca

P-A N Student Lower Danube University of Galati Babes- Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca

A

  I. M, Q  M C T         R fundamental elements of tradition are sought and promoted in the sake of tradition or the mere passion of some collectors, but an innovative format by youth. a problem that is of a stringent and acute social interest, being Key words: tradition, identity, national costumes, folk danc- in the attention of a large group of specialists. The transforma- es tion processes generated by the evolution of society in recent centuries have brought to the fore the relationship between tra- I dition and innovation, proving its full timeliness in the conditions of the dramatic changes happening both on national and The present paper aims at presenting how Romanian traditions, international level. especially the traditional costumes and dances, have been per- A rich tradition, having its roots throughout the history of the petuated over time, representing a link between the history of Romanian people and its ancestors from the vast Carpathian- the Romanian nation, its ancestors, and today’s generations who, Danubio territory, has been preserved to this day due to particu- in front of the phenomenon of globalization, try to revive them. lar historical conditions . Therefore, any society, any culture, is For the Romanian society of the st century, tradition means characterized by dynamism, being determined by all the “cultur- continuity, a reference to the past, which is updated by belong- al heritage” or “traditions” transmitted, but also by the “changes” ing to the present, and being adapted to the new socio-cultural or “innovations” that occur in time, in space and in social struc- requirements. tures, society or the culture itself being a “multifaceted, varied, complex reality of eternal change and development” . R An important part of the tradition of the Romanian people is the wearing, at any occasion, of the traditional costume. The tra- We can assert that the notion of culture, above all, means the ditional costume has been in our culture for thousands of years. study of ideas, experiences, feelings and external forms that they The traditional costume (mentioned on the Trajan’s Column, take when they are made public, when they are accessible to then on the Tropaeum Traiani Monument from Adamclisi) im- senses, relying on a social structure of people and relationships, presses thanks to the simple and straight outfi t, ornaments the cultural fl ow being produced through them. “Any cultural (stitches, embroideries), colors (white, black, red), composition form (…)” lives its own “life”: it begins to exist, or is “born” in a and material (cotton, fl ax, hemp). The Romanian traditional cos- certain place and moment, it is the work of someone; it lasts from tume fi nds its roots in the clothes of our ancient ancestors, Ge- generation to generation, spreading from one place to another or tae and Dacians, and resembles that of the peoples of the Balkan from one social stratum to another; during these “movements” of Peninsula, of course, with the specifi c decorative and color diff e- time, space, or society, it is sometimes kept unaltered and some- rences. times subjected to more or less profound transformations; Final- Throughout history, the structure and evolution of the Roma- ly, it “dies”, as it is said many times, that is, ceasing to be used nian traditional costume kept its essential characteristics unal- and pursued by individuals and groups “ . tered. National embroideries, traditional costumes are not just a At fi rst glance, it would seem that concerns about the fate of fad of a long-lost tradition. They are, in fact, the entire cultural traditional culture would only be of interest to beauty and old lovers. In reality, however, it is not a leaning towards tradition for  Secosan, Elena, Petrescu, Paul, The folk holiday costume in Romania, Meridiane Publishing House, Bucharest, , p..  Cirese, Alberto M., Cultura egemonica e culture subalterne. Rassegna degli studi sul  Herseni, Traian, Social reality. Attempts of regional ontology, The publishing house mondo populare tradizionale, Palumbo Editore, Cagliari, , p.. of the Romanian cultural institute, Bucharest, , p..

   I. M, Q  M C T         R fundamental elements of tradition are sought and promoted in the sake of tradition or the mere passion of some collectors, but an innovative format by youth. a problem that is of a stringent and acute social interest, being Key words: tradition, identity, national costumes, folk danc- in the attention of a large group of specialists. The transforma- es tion processes generated by the evolution of society in recent centuries have brought to the fore the relationship between tra- I dition and innovation, proving its full timeliness in the conditions of the dramatic changes happening both on national and The present paper aims at presenting how Romanian traditions, international level. especially the traditional costumes and dances, have been per- A rich tradition, having its roots throughout the history of the petuated over time, representing a link between the history of Romanian people and its ancestors from the vast Carpathian- the Romanian nation, its ancestors, and today’s generations who, Danubio territory, has been preserved to this day due to particu- in front of the phenomenon of globalization, try to revive them. lar historical conditions . Therefore, any society, any culture, is For the Romanian society of the st century, tradition means characterized by dynamism, being determined by all the “cultur- continuity, a reference to the past, which is updated by belong- al heritage” or “traditions” transmitted, but also by the “changes” ing to the present, and being adapted to the new socio-cultural or “innovations” that occur in time, in space and in social struc- requirements. tures, society or the culture itself being a “multifaceted, varied, complex reality of eternal change and development” . R An important part of the tradition of the Romanian people is the wearing, at any occasion, of the traditional costume. The tra- We can assert that the notion of culture, above all, means the ditional costume has been in our culture for thousands of years. study of ideas, experiences, feelings and external forms that they The traditional costume (mentioned on the Trajan’s Column, take when they are made public, when they are accessible to then on the Tropaeum Traiani Monument from Adamclisi) im- senses, relying on a social structure of people and relationships, presses thanks to the simple and straight outfi t, ornaments the cultural fl ow being produced through them. “Any cultural (stitches, embroideries), colors (white, black, red), composition form (…)” lives its own “life”: it begins to exist, or is “born” in a and material (cotton, fl ax, hemp). The Romanian traditional cos- certain place and moment, it is the work of someone; it lasts from tume fi nds its roots in the clothes of our ancient ancestors, Ge- generation to generation, spreading from one place to another or tae and Dacians, and resembles that of the peoples of the Balkan from one social stratum to another; during these “movements” of Peninsula, of course, with the specifi c decorative and color diff e- time, space, or society, it is sometimes kept unaltered and some- rences. times subjected to more or less profound transformations; Final- Throughout history, the structure and evolution of the Roma- ly, it “dies”, as it is said many times, that is, ceasing to be used nian traditional costume kept its essential characteristics unal- and pursued by individuals and groups “ . tered. National embroideries, traditional costumes are not just a At fi rst glance, it would seem that concerns about the fate of fad of a long-lost tradition. They are, in fact, the entire cultural traditional culture would only be of interest to beauty and old lovers. In reality, however, it is not a leaning towards tradition for  Secosan, Elena, Petrescu, Paul, The folk holiday costume in Romania, Meridiane Publishing House, Bucharest, , p..  Cirese, Alberto M., Cultura egemonica e culture subalterne. Rassegna degli studi sul  Herseni, Traian, Social reality. Attempts of regional ontology, The publishing house mondo populare tradizionale, Palumbo Editore, Cagliari, , p.. of the Romanian cultural institute, Bucharest, , p..

   I. M, Q  M C T         R heritage of the Romanian peasant. It’s about a unitary set of leg- hemp clothing are all white, the impression left by this white- ends, stories, fairy tales, fables, colors and meanings. Deep mean- clothed people being one of “calm, power, physical and moral ings, hidden symbolism. It’s about passion and fascination, orig- cleansing” . inality and keeping of tradition. And some reasons come down The Romanian folk costume has a discreet ornamentation and, from prehistory. They say a lot about the geographical area, the at the same time, of eff ect. This result is achieved by placing the history, the tradition of each group . ornaments in well-defi ned fi elds, making the lines of the cut to Romania has evolved, people have come and gone, globaliza- be highlighted, and along with them, those of the body, giving tion encompasses us every day, but the identity of our people re- the costume a sculptural character, and on the other hand, high- mains anchored in the soft and delicate cloth, in the skilful fab- lighting the decorative motifs . ric of the elders, in the stories the Romanian traditional cos- The motifs, or rather, the symbols of the Romanian folk costumes have written and carried over the ages. tumes are of several kinds: abstract symbols (cosmic, zoomorphic, Starting from the artistic achievements made with raw mate- anthropomorphic ones), fl oral and vegetal symbols (plants, leaves, rials produced inside the peasant households, the Romanian tra- fl owers, fruits), geometric and abstract symbols. The cosmic sym- ditional costume has evolved over the centuries, proving a rich bols of traditional folk costumes such as the sun, the sunfl ower, mastery of the Romanian peasant, both in the embroidery of fab- the circle, the lightning, the stars, the moon speak of the connec- rics and embroideries, as well as in the obtaining of the vegetal tion with the sacred. They are usually ancestral symbols of divin- colors. Researchers found  colors in the Romanian peasant ar- ity. The symbol of the sun, for example, represents the warmth, senal. The colors were made of herbs: walnut, onion leaves, the energy of life, and the circle represents the wheel of life, the quince, bat and others. cycle of seasons. The traditional clothing is diff erentiated according to season, Floral or vegetal symbols like wheat ear, acorn, grape, rose, lily festive occasions, age and sex, adapting to occupations specifi c or cherry fl owers, trees or their branches are symbols of reinven- to each area. Romania is divided into seven folkloric regions: tion and wisdom. The traditional Romanian blouses abound in Transylvania, Western Plains, Banat, Wallachia, Lower Danube, representations and coloring according to the area. In the villag- Moldavia and Romanians in the Balkans (Aromanians, Istoroma- es of the plain, there are elements related to the harvest periods, nians, Daco-Romans). Thus, depending on the occasion, the tra- while cones and fi r trees appear in the mountain villages . The ditional costume can be simpler, for example, the one used dur- zoomorphic elements such as the horns of the ram, the sparrow, ing agricultural work, to the most beautifully ornamented used the coco, the harpsichord express the tradition and the richness at the wedding. Even today, on working days or on holidays, in of a certain geographical and ethnographic area. Romania, you see women and men dressed in cloths of pure The diff erence in costumes is also refl ected by age categories. white, wool, hemp, or cotton, the dominant note of the Romani- Thus, for children, although as clothing style it is the same, there an traditional costume, in terms of raw material, being the use of are some diff erences. For example, for women, the diff erence lies white fabrics from animal or vegetable fi bers. Women’s and men’s in the decorations of the head, which diff er from unmarried and shirts, women’s footwear and skirts, men’s leggings, in other words the basics of the costume, as well as vests, thick wool or  Secosan, Elena, Petrescu, Paul, The folk holiday costume in Romania, p..  Ibidem, p.  Stanculescu, Catalin, What signifi cance have the drawings on the folk Romanian  Stanculescu, Catalin, What signifi cance have the drawings on the folk Romanian costumes? | Mythologica.ro, https://mythologica.ro/ce-semnifi catie-au-desenele- costumes? | Mythologica.ro, https://mythologica.ro/ce-semnifi catie-au-desenele- de-pe-costumele-populare-romanesti/, available at March th, . de-pe-costumele-populare-romanesti/, available at March th, .

   I. M, Q  M C T         R heritage of the Romanian peasant. It’s about a unitary set of leg- hemp clothing are all white, the impression left by this white- ends, stories, fairy tales, fables, colors and meanings. Deep mean- clothed people being one of “calm, power, physical and moral ings, hidden symbolism. It’s about passion and fascination, orig- cleansing” . inality and keeping of tradition. And some reasons come down The Romanian folk costume has a discreet ornamentation and, from prehistory. They say a lot about the geographical area, the at the same time, of eff ect. This result is achieved by placing the history, the tradition of each group . ornaments in well-defi ned fi elds, making the lines of the cut to Romania has evolved, people have come and gone, globaliza- be highlighted, and along with them, those of the body, giving tion encompasses us every day, but the identity of our people re- the costume a sculptural character, and on the other hand, high- mains anchored in the soft and delicate cloth, in the skilful fab- lighting the decorative motifs . ric of the elders, in the stories the Romanian traditional cos- The motifs, or rather, the symbols of the Romanian folk costumes have written and carried over the ages. tumes are of several kinds: abstract symbols (cosmic, zoomorphic, Starting from the artistic achievements made with raw mate- anthropomorphic ones), fl oral and vegetal symbols (plants, leaves, rials produced inside the peasant households, the Romanian tra- fl owers, fruits), geometric and abstract symbols. The cosmic sym- ditional costume has evolved over the centuries, proving a rich bols of traditional folk costumes such as the sun, the sunfl ower, mastery of the Romanian peasant, both in the embroidery of fab- the circle, the lightning, the stars, the moon speak of the connec- rics and embroideries, as well as in the obtaining of the vegetal tion with the sacred. They are usually ancestral symbols of divin- colors. Researchers found  colors in the Romanian peasant ar- ity. The symbol of the sun, for example, represents the warmth, senal. The colors were made of herbs: walnut, onion leaves, the energy of life, and the circle represents the wheel of life, the quince, bat and others. cycle of seasons. The traditional clothing is diff erentiated according to season, Floral or vegetal symbols like wheat ear, acorn, grape, rose, lily festive occasions, age and sex, adapting to occupations specifi c or cherry fl owers, trees or their branches are symbols of reinven- to each area. Romania is divided into seven folkloric regions: tion and wisdom. The traditional Romanian blouses abound in Transylvania, Western Plains, Banat, Wallachia, Lower Danube, representations and coloring according to the area. In the villag- Moldavia and Romanians in the Balkans (Aromanians, Istoroma- es of the plain, there are elements related to the harvest periods, nians, Daco-Romans). Thus, depending on the occasion, the tra- while cones and fi r trees appear in the mountain villages . The ditional costume can be simpler, for example, the one used dur- zoomorphic elements such as the horns of the ram, the sparrow, ing agricultural work, to the most beautifully ornamented used the coco, the harpsichord express the tradition and the richness at the wedding. Even today, on working days or on holidays, in of a certain geographical and ethnographic area. Romania, you see women and men dressed in cloths of pure The diff erence in costumes is also refl ected by age categories. white, wool, hemp, or cotton, the dominant note of the Romani- Thus, for children, although as clothing style it is the same, there an traditional costume, in terms of raw material, being the use of are some diff erences. For example, for women, the diff erence lies white fabrics from animal or vegetable fi bers. Women’s and men’s in the decorations of the head, which diff er from unmarried and shirts, women’s footwear and skirts, men’s leggings, in other words the basics of the costume, as well as vests, thick wool or  Secosan, Elena, Petrescu, Paul, The folk holiday costume in Romania, p..  Ibidem, p.  Stanculescu, Catalin, What signifi cance have the drawings on the folk Romanian  Stanculescu, Catalin, What signifi cance have the drawings on the folk Romanian costumes? | Mythologica.ro, https://mythologica.ro/ce-semnifi catie-au-desenele- costumes? | Mythologica.ro, https://mythologica.ro/ce-semnifi catie-au-desenele- de-pe-costumele-populare-romanesti/, available at March th, . de-pe-costumele-populare-romanesti/, available at March th, .

   I. M, Q  M C T         R

married women. Generally, the women’s costume is composed of: ion houses around the world, such as Christian Dior, who copied shirt, skirt and the clothing covering the skirt from beneath the a traditional coat from the Bihor region and inserted it in a col- waist that is diff erent from region to region. The covering cloth- lection of their own in autumn . Beau Monde, a fashion mag- ing has diff erent names depending on its form and the region. azine with % original Romanian content, chose to take action Therefore, it can be called „catrinţă”, „vâlnic”, „fotă”, „opreg” . against the phenomenon of not being given credit to traditional These pieces of clothing are made of wool, having a simpler or Bihor craftsmen, saying that at least a small part of the amount more complicated design, based on their region of provenience. Dior sells the piece the clothing inspired by Romanian folklore Shirts have the same ornamental parts, with some chromatic should return to the original creators . diff erences. A supplement to the women’s clothing is the wide The Romanian peasant drew his dreams and stories on shirts, variety of head cookies that vary from one area to another, even pants and coats. He gathered his hopes and the way he perceives from village to village, the value of this cookie depending on the the world, his religious beliefs and his vision of life, and painted, beauty of fabrics and embroidery or other adornments for that beaten, bloomed, sculpted, burned and embroidered them on all purpose. They are composed of: marbles, “naframe”, “cepse” or sorts of materials. Some resisted, others less. The traditional Ro- crowns. Other pieces of the women’s costume are girdles and manian costume is art and history at the same time. It is the sto- sticks, which also feature outstanding artistic achievements. ry of the Romanian peasant from origins to the present, from the The men’s costume is simpler, consisting of a long shirt in the village meetings, where the village dances were created, where south and east of the country and a shorter one in the north and eternity was born. west. The pants in the south and east are long and narrow, and Besides traditional folk costumes, another fundamental ele- in the north and west of the country, they are shorter and wider. ment of the Romanian culture that resisted the passing of time They are made of cloth or woven made in the house. Over the and all the external factors that caused major changes in the Ro- shirt, men put their own belt sewed in the house or a leather one, manian society is represented by traditional dances. depending on the region and the occupation. In winter, over the The dance had a special importance in the life of the Romani- clothes listed above, they are wearing nicely ornamented clothes, an peasant, being indispensable in religious rituals. Over time, or leather coats. there have been mutations in traditional dances, some keeping The traditional Romanian folk costume, especially “ ia”, mean- their ritualic function (Calusul, Cununa, Dragaica) and others ing the traditional costume blouse was a source of inspiration for transforming into “show dances”, revealing an exaggeration of local designers such as Adrian Oianu who created the concept of the dance of the elderly. The show dance consists of adopting a “Urban IA” with the Celebration of the Centenary of the Great Un- much more alert speed to please the audience’s eye, which at the ion in Romania,; a solution of the fashion designer to make the same time means the loss of tradition. By playing a show dance, young generation of Romanians wear the most iconic piece of the the style, movement and the original theme of the traditional traditional Romanian costume . dance, which consists of the close relationship between the part- The concept of “La Blouse Roumaine” has passed, however, the ners, their collaboration during the dance and the transmission borders of our country, reaching the attention of the great fash- of a good mood to the spectators, is lost. Another considerable

 VIDEO How did Bihor’s coat got copied by Dior and sold with , euros. “No  Patrut, Bogdan, The Romanian national costumes, EduSoft Magazine, https://www. part of this sum goes back to the original creators”, adevarul.ro, https://adevarul. edusoft.ro/portul-popular/, available at April th, . ro/locale/oradea/videocum-ajuns-cojocul-bihor-copiat-dior-vandut--eu-  Sandu, Geanina, Adrian Oianu — the desgner who returned ia to the urban life, ro-nici-parte-suma-nu-intoarce-creatorii-origi- http://miscareaderezistenta.ro/article-.html, available at April rd, . nali-_abadffec/index.html, available at April rd, .

   I. M, Q  M C T         R

   I. M, Q  M C T         R diff erence between traditional and show dances is revealed by the the community against the aggression of the wicked fairies, mak- techniques used. While in traditional old dances, the dancers ing them a transcendent and always present threat, which claims were playing on synopsis, contretemps, in show dances there are to be demolished by proper rituals. movements and steps always made on time. To ensure the protection of the whole community, the Calus The fi rst references to the existence of traditional dances have dancers played throughout the village, on the music of the mu- been made since the fi fteenth century, along with the writings of sicians paid by them. The dances were reiterated daily during the Romanian chronicler Grigore Ureche. Over time, a whole the Pentecost period, that is, as long as there was a danger that range of dances has been enhanced, such as Hora, Sarba, Calusul, people would be assaulted by wicked fairies. Their dance was be- Braul. tween sunrise and sunset. After that, dancing became danger- Braul is a traditional dance played by both women and men, ous for them, as they did not benefi t from the protective light of usually in pairs, shoulder-shaven, accompanied by shouts like: the solar star, from its strength to keep the fairies away. Their dances drove the fairies away, preventing them from getting “One, two closer to people. At the same time, in order to protect them Forty-nine from diseases, in this case the “taking away from the Calus”, the And now wipe it out once dancers gave the villagers garlic and wormwood. People kept And wipe it out again them at their waist, some anointing windows and doors with Let’s see if we can garlic in combination with wormwood for the same prophylac- On our knees, let us go When shouting: tic purpose. The bracket is being snapped Another way of defending against the wicked fairies was for Like the oats in the turret. the villagers to play with the dancers or to give their children to Still on the spot, on the spot, be worn and played by them. The Calus dancers defended the To rise basil: community and, at the same time, defended themselves by using The basil of women, “weapons” with magical powers: bats, wood swords, and even the  The love of wives “ . noise of the spurs and jingle bells from their boots . Never-failing from the village life and spread almost in all re- Calusul is among the oldest ancient customs of the Romanians, gions of the country, Hora has been given multiple meanings being specifi c to the southern part of the country. Calusul, in its over time. The fi rst mention of the Hora was made by the chron- attested forms in the last centuries, is practiced and is known as icler Dimitrie Cantemir in his book “Descriptio Moldaviae” in the most representative tradition, the most impressive show and . one of the most impressive and valuable Romanian folk creations. In the popular tradition, “going out to the Hora” meant the It is the most important folkloric manifestation of religious cus- transition of girls and boys to those who had reached the age. toms. The ritual fulfi lled by the group of dancers translates a hu- The name of this dance is also related to the phrase “if you en- man need, symbolically providing consistent explanations of cer- tered the Hora, you have to play”, which means that a thing tain aspects of individual and social life. which has started has to be fi nished . Nor is the appreciation The habit of the Calus dance has an essential role in the normal development of the community life. It evades and protects  Tiberiu Alexandru, „La horă-n sat” — Oltenia , disc Electrecord (EPD), Bucha-  Niculescu- Varone, G.T., Dictionary of Romanian dances — Folk choreography, The rest, . Printing of the “Vacaresti” Penitentiary, Bucharest, , p.–  Darosi, Mircea, Hora — the symbol of our national unity, Răsunetul Magazine, /ho-

   I. M, Q  M C T         R diff erence between traditional and show dances is revealed by the the community against the aggression of the wicked fairies, mak- techniques used. While in traditional old dances, the dancers ing them a transcendent and always present threat, which claims were playing on synopsis, contretemps, in show dances there are to be demolished by proper rituals. movements and steps always made on time. To ensure the protection of the whole community, the Calus The fi rst references to the existence of traditional dances have dancers played throughout the village, on the music of the mu- been made since the fi fteenth century, along with the writings of sicians paid by them. The dances were reiterated daily during the Romanian chronicler Grigore Ureche. Over time, a whole the Pentecost period, that is, as long as there was a danger that range of dances has been enhanced, such as Hora, Sarba, Calusul, people would be assaulted by wicked fairies. Their dance was be- Braul. tween sunrise and sunset. After that, dancing became danger- Braul is a traditional dance played by both women and men, ous for them, as they did not benefi t from the protective light of usually in pairs, shoulder-shaven, accompanied by shouts like: the solar star, from its strength to keep the fairies away. Their dances drove the fairies away, preventing them from getting “One, two closer to people. At the same time, in order to protect them Forty-nine from diseases, in this case the “taking away from the Calus”, the And now wipe it out once dancers gave the villagers garlic and wormwood. People kept And wipe it out again them at their waist, some anointing windows and doors with Let’s see if we can garlic in combination with wormwood for the same prophylac- On our knees, let us go When shouting: tic purpose. The bracket is being snapped Another way of defending against the wicked fairies was for Like the oats in the turret. the villagers to play with the dancers or to give their children to Still on the spot, on the spot, be worn and played by them. The Calus dancers defended the To rise basil: community and, at the same time, defended themselves by using The basil of women, “weapons” with magical powers: bats, wood swords, and even the  The love of wives “ . noise of the spurs and jingle bells from their boots . Never-failing from the village life and spread almost in all re- Calusul is among the oldest ancient customs of the Romanians, gions of the country, Hora has been given multiple meanings being specifi c to the southern part of the country. Calusul, in its over time. The fi rst mention of the Hora was made by the chron- attested forms in the last centuries, is practiced and is known as icler Dimitrie Cantemir in his book “Descriptio Moldaviae” in the most representative tradition, the most impressive show and . one of the most impressive and valuable Romanian folk creations. In the popular tradition, “going out to the Hora” meant the It is the most important folkloric manifestation of religious cus- transition of girls and boys to those who had reached the age. toms. The ritual fulfi lled by the group of dancers translates a hu- The name of this dance is also related to the phrase “if you en- man need, symbolically providing consistent explanations of cer- tered the Hora, you have to play”, which means that a thing tain aspects of individual and social life. which has started has to be fi nished . Nor is the appreciation The habit of the Calus dance has an essential role in the normal development of the community life. It evades and protects  Tiberiu Alexandru, „La horă-n sat” — Oltenia , disc Electrecord (EPD), Bucha-  Niculescu- Varone, G.T., Dictionary of Romanian dances — Folk choreography, The rest, . Printing of the “Vacaresti” Penitentiary, Bucharest, , p.–  Darosi, Mircea, Hora — the symbol of our national unity, Răsunetul Magazine, /ho-

   I. M, Q  M C T         R

“prepared for the Hora” is not meaningless, confi rming once again the waters form a wonderful girdle. Hora is today the most faith- that the Hora is not an ordinary event, but one that off ers the oc- ful expression of permanence and freedom, it is the metaphor of casion of a genuine celebration in the life of the community. our national rebirth. Throughout a millennial history, Hora became for the Roma- The traditional dance, through its variety, through tradition nian peasant the indispensable dance of affi rmation of his life as and sentiment, is the expression of every corner of the country, such, just as work and food. Thus conceived, the Hora is, without with its customs, its people and its culture. As if forgotten by exaggeration, one of the most important factors of the eugenics most young people, traditional dances burn in the hearts of of the Romanian people and culture . grandparents and great-grandparents “dependent” of folklore. Beyond the ethno-folklorical values included in the rhythms The specifi city of the dance and interpretation depends on the specifi c to each area, Hora also receives historical signifi cance. folkloric area. Thus, folkloric areas of Moldavia, Wallachia, Olte- The clay fi gurines discovered by archeologists and symbolically nia, Banat, Transylvania and Dobrogea are distinguished. During called “Hora de la Frumuşica” are a testimony to the millenary dancing, the boys and girls say “shouts” that diff er from one area existence of this dance on our lands. He is not encountered in to another. Moldova is shouting on the pace of the footsteps. In other nations, just as the great-scholar Dimitrie Cantemir men- Maramures, “screaming” is played in interesting, specifi c intona- tions in the above-mentioned work. tions. In Transylvania there are real dialogues between girls and The one that gives profound social signifi cance and strength- boys. And in Oltenia, Muntenia and Dobrogea, these shouts have ens the historical message of the Hora is the Romanian poet Va- the role of leading the dance by announcing the fi gures. The sile Alecsandri, who wrote the famous Hora of the Union. His lyr- shouts contain sometimes lyrical messages, of love, sometimes ics were put on music by the composer Alexandru Flechtenmach- satirical or humorous, but they are not missing from traditional er and it was sung and played in the big squares of the cities of dances. Bucharest and Iasi with the occasion of the double election of the Both costumes and traditional dances are part of the history prince Alexandru Ioan Cuza. From that moment on, Hora became and tradition of the Romanian nation. They underlie the build- the symbol of the union of all Romanians. ing of the national identity, the building up of the cultural his- On January , , the song and the dance merged on the tory of the nation and the settling of the Romanian roots. To- rhythm of the same sensation: day, when our country is aligned with technological evolution, when people’s migration is so active, when students go to stud- “Let’s stay hand in hand, ies in other countries, when we embrace globalization and see Those with the Romanian heart, it as an evolution of mankind, the only thing that does not al- Let’s turn the brotherhood Hora low us to forget who we are and where we come from is tradi- On the land of Romania “. tion. In tradition and customs stand our ancestors, our language and our dreams. It is the place where we always return, Since then, for Romania, Hora has become a dance and a song of when our souls are in celebration, at weddings, events or festiv- the revolutionary call, a symbol of the victory and union of those ities. The traditions and customs of our nation are, in fact, the who are brothers and sisters of this nation and of this earth. Like cultural DNA of Romania, which we disseminate and honor, in a Hora, it seems like the Carpathians give their hand and all even more and more intensely, when we sense the threat of the ra-simbolul-unitatii-noastre-nationale, available at April rd, . dissolution of the national ego in the sea of common habits of  Fochi, Adrian, Customs and folk tales at the end of the XIX century, Minerva Pub- the planet. lishing House, Bucharest, , p..

   I. M, Q  M C T         R

   I. M, Q  M C R Research on the subsidy level . Cirese, Alberto M., Cultura egemonica e culture subalterne. in the Russian Federation: Rassegna degli studi sul mondo populare tradizionale, Palum- correlation-regression analysis bo Editore, Cagliari, . . Fochi, Adrian, Customs and folk tales at the end of the XIX century, Minerva Publishing House, Bucharest, . . Herseni, Traian, Social reality. Attempts of regional ontology, The publishing house of the Romanian cultural institute, Bu- V B, charest, . E K . Niculescu- Varone, G.T., Dictionary of Romanian dances — Folk Students Russian Presidential Academy of choreography, The Printing of the “Vacaresti” Penitentiary, Bu- National Economy and Public Administration charest, . Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Secosan, Elena, Petrescu, Paul, The holiday folk costume in Ro- mania, Meridiane Publishing House, Bucharest, . S O Web Resources: Associate Professor . Darosi, Mircea, Hora — the symbol of our national unity, Russian Presidential Academy of National Răsunetul Magazine, /hora-simbolul-unitatii-noastre-nation- Economy and Public Administration ale, available at April rd, . Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Patrut, Bogdan, The Romanian national costumes, EduSoft Magazine, https://www.edusoft.ro/portul-popular/, available at A April th, . The conducted research focuses on the dependence . Sandu, Geanina, Adrian Oianu — the desgner who returned ia between the level of subsidies and socio-economic to the urban life, http://miscareaderezistenta.ro/article-. factors characterizing the regions. Correlation-re- html, available at April rd, . gression analyzes the most signifi cant factors which . Stanculescu, Catalin, „ What signifi cance have the drawings on aff ect the dependent variable. An exponential mod- the folk Romanian costumes? | Mythologica.ro”, https://myth- el shows the dependence of the level of subsidies on ologica.ro/ce-semnifi catie-au-desenele-de-pe-costumele-pop- the chosen basket of factors. ulare-romanesti/, available at March th, . Statistical series indicate the change of gross re- . Tiberiu Alexandru, „La horă-n sat” — Oltenia , disc Electrecord gional product (GRP). Seasonality coeffi cients are (EPD), Bucharest, . evaluated. A visible dependence is revealed between . VIDEO How did Bihor’s coat got copied by Dior and sold with , the subsidies and the fi nancial resources lacking for euros. “No part of this sum goes back to the original creators”, ade- the average level of fi scal capacity of the regions. varul.ro, https://adevarul.ro/locale/oradea/videocum-ajuns-cojocul- Conclusions, obtained during the research, allow bihor-copiat-dior-vandut--euro-nici-parte-suma-nu-in- subsidies allocation adjustments to be made. toarce-creatorii-originali-_abadffec/index.html, Key words: fi scal capacity, subsidies, correlation available at April rd, . analysis, regression analysis

   I. M, Q  M C R Research on the subsidy level . Cirese, Alberto M., Cultura egemonica e culture subalterne. in the Russian Federation: Rassegna degli studi sul mondo populare tradizionale, Palum- correlation-regression analysis bo Editore, Cagliari, . . Fochi, Adrian, Customs and folk tales at the end of the XIX century, Minerva Publishing House, Bucharest, . . Herseni, Traian, Social reality. Attempts of regional ontology, The publishing house of the Romanian cultural institute, Bu- V B, charest, . E K . Niculescu- Varone, G.T., Dictionary of Romanian dances — Folk Students Russian Presidential Academy of choreography, The Printing of the “Vacaresti” Penitentiary, Bu- National Economy and Public Administration charest, . Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Secosan, Elena, Petrescu, Paul, The holiday folk costume in Ro- mania, Meridiane Publishing House, Bucharest, . S O Web Resources: Associate Professor . Darosi, Mircea, Hora — the symbol of our national unity, Russian Presidential Academy of National Răsunetul Magazine, /hora-simbolul-unitatii-noastre-nation- Economy and Public Administration ale, available at April rd, . Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Patrut, Bogdan, The Romanian national costumes, EduSoft Magazine, https://www.edusoft.ro/portul-popular/, available at A April th, . The conducted research focuses on the dependence . Sandu, Geanina, Adrian Oianu — the desgner who returned ia between the level of subsidies and socio-economic to the urban life, http://miscareaderezistenta.ro/article-. factors characterizing the regions. Correlation-re- html, available at April rd, . gression analyzes the most signifi cant factors which . Stanculescu, Catalin, „ What signifi cance have the drawings on aff ect the dependent variable. An exponential mod- the folk Romanian costumes? | Mythologica.ro”, https://myth- el shows the dependence of the level of subsidies on ologica.ro/ce-semnifi catie-au-desenele-de-pe-costumele-pop- the chosen basket of factors. ulare-romanesti/, available at March th, . Statistical series indicate the change of gross re- . Tiberiu Alexandru, „La horă-n sat” — Oltenia , disc Electrecord gional product (GRP). Seasonality coeffi cients are (EPD), Bucharest, . evaluated. A visible dependence is revealed between . VIDEO How did Bihor’s coat got copied by Dior and sold with , the subsidies and the fi nancial resources lacking for euros. “No part of this sum goes back to the original creators”, ade- the average level of fi scal capacity of the regions. varul.ro, https://adevarul.ro/locale/oradea/videocum-ajuns-cojocul- Conclusions, obtained during the research, allow bihor-copiat-dior-vandut--euro-nici-parte-suma-nu-in- subsidies allocation adjustments to be made. toarce-creatorii-originali-_abadffec/index.html, Key words: fi scal capacity, subsidies, correlation available at April rd, . analysis, regression analysis

   I. M, Q  M C R       R F

I The linear model equation takes the following form: Y = ,X + ,X + ,X + ,X–,X–, The economic policy of the government sets a direction for the economy of the country. The centerpiece of this policy is subsidies The determination coeffi cient is very high with acceptable value allocation between federal units of the state. In Russia, the basic of F-test which indicates model’s reliability. However, GRP shows fi scal policy postulate is the adjustment of the level of fi scal capac- only a minor dependency with the dependent variable. This rules ity of the regions. However, a more rational decision would be to out the original hypothesis and, subsequently, all of the factors subsidize a region which is more economically developed and ef- included in the GRP-model are excluded from the main model. fective. These two objectives create contradictions which arise a Final variables: question of the governmental strategy of subsidies allocation. . Expenditures of federal units — an aggregated sum of all The aim of this research is to study the rationale and prereq- the region’s expenditures. uisites for subsidizing the regions of Russian Federation using . Financial resources lacking for the average level of fi scal the correlation-regression method of analysis. capacity — the volume of funds which are necessary for a region to be subsidized with. R . Number of municipal units — number of populated local self-governed territories. The original hypothesis was that the level of infl uence of gross . Budgetary expenditures index — ratio of region’s expen- regional product on the subsidies was more than that of any oth- ditures to the state’s expenditures. Is calculated as: (Re- er factor. Other components, such as technological innovation gional expenditures/Regional population) / (State expen- expenditures (X), annual average employment (X), capital stock ditures/Country’s population) investments (X), volume of industrial output (X), volume of agricultural production, were also included into the research to an- The analysis showed the most signifi cant correlation index be- alyze the dependency between them and GPD and, thus, on sub- tween governmental subsidies and fi nancial resources lacking for sidies. A linear model was composed (GDP-model). the average level of fi scal capacity (X). Accordingly, GRP per Table . Regression statistics capita (X) has small correlation of , with the dependent variable which again rules out the original hypothesis of subsidiz- Multiple R , R , ing the regions with the most economic development utility. Standardized R  , However, further investigation will be based on the hypothesis of Standardized error , the dependency between the volume of subsidies and GRP not in statics, but in dynamics. F F-test , , Table . Regression statistics (linear model)

Coeffi cients Multiple R ,  Y-intercept -, R ,  X Standardized R ,  , X Standardized error ,  , X ,  The nonviability of the linear model indicated that the shift to X  , X exponential model was necessary, followed by taking the loga-  -,

   I. M, Q  M C R       R F

   I. M, Q  M C R       R F rithm of all variables. The regression analysis proved the expo- The model was also approbated for how the dependent varia- nential model to be more proximate. ble will react if a chosen factor is varied (increased or decreased) Table . Regression statistics (exponential model) by %. Accordingly, the increment in the fi nancial resources un- Multiple R , der the average level of fi scal capacity by % results in the in- R , crease of the level of subsidies by %. The dependent variable Standardized R  , gives the most signifi cant response on the change of the fi nan- Standardized error , cial resources under the average level of fi scal capacity.

F F-test , , S 

Coeffi cients Without a confi rmation in statics, the hypothesis regarding the Y-intercept -, infl uence of GRP on governmental grants was researched in dy- X  -, X namics. The data on subsidies, GRP and the level of fi nancial re-  , X sources lacking for the average level of fi scal capacity from   -, X to  was collected for statistical series.  , Quarterly GRP records were cleared out of seasonality to con- The exponential model equation takes the following form: duct research on multiplicative and additive models. The results Y = ,X(–,) X, X(–,) X, revealed that the correlation coeffi cient (Table ) between GRP and subsidies is of negligible importance and is negative, i. e. sig- t-statistics P-Value -, , nifying inverse relationship. -, , Table . Correlation between GRP and subsidies , , Subsidies GRP -, , Subsidies  , , GRP -,  In comparison with P-Value, t-statistics shows the signifi cance The greatest response in comparing yearly unchanged data was of all of the factors included in the model with t-statistics ex- retrieved while analyzing the polynomial trend line — R = ,. ceeding the P-Value for every factor. The viability of the model was also proved via calculating the F-test and collating it with 2 500 000 the table F-test for the level of signifi cance of = ,. Thus, the 2 250 000 y = 0,157x + 448,57 R² = 0,173 measured value of the F-test = , exceeds the table value of F- 2 000 000 test = , and is proved to be signifi cant. 1 750 000 Table . Dependent variable responses 1 500 000 % increase Y variation % decrease Y variation 1 250 000 X+% % X–% -% 1 000 000 X+% % X–% -% 750 000 X+% % X–% -% 500 000

X+% -% X–% % 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 0000 1

   I. M, Q  M C R       R F rithm of all variables. The regression analysis proved the expo- The model was also approbated for how the dependent varia- nential model to be more proximate. ble will react if a chosen factor is varied (increased or decreased) Table . Regression statistics (exponential model) by %. Accordingly, the increment in the fi nancial resources un- Multiple R , der the average level of fi scal capacity by % results in the in- R , crease of the level of subsidies by %. The dependent variable Standardized R  , gives the most signifi cant response on the change of the fi nan- Standardized error , cial resources under the average level of fi scal capacity.

F F-test , , S 

X+% -% X–% % 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 0000 1

   I. M, Q  M C R       R F

5000 5000

4000 4000

3000 Δy = 0,0026Δx - 106,71 3000 R² = 0,0165 ΔY = 0,0002ΔX + 58,192 2000 2000 R² = 0,3829

1000 1000

0 0

-1000 -1000

-2000 -2000

-3000 -3000

-4000 -4000 0 -20000000 -15000000 -10000000 -5000000 0 5000000 10000000 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 coeffi cient (Table ) equal to –, implies a signifi cant inverse Subsequently, the research continued with the series of dy- relationship. namics cleared of the time factor. Table : Cleared of time correlation matrix In doing so, no dependence was uncovered even with a time lag in one or more period. This led to the conclusion that an in- ΔLacking fi nancial resources ΔSubsidies crement in GRP does not impact an increase in governmental ΔSubsidies  ΔLacking fi nancial resources -,  grants. Thus, the hypothesis regarding the infl uence of GRP on the dependent variable was not confi rmed neither statics nor in The subsequent regression analysis on the dependency be- dynamics. The following analysis focuses on the fi nancial re- tween governmental grants, lacking fi nancial resources and time sources lacking for the average level of fi scal capacity and its de- revealed a high correlational dependence. pendence with the subsidies. Table . Regression statistics In Table  correlation coeffi cient can be seen with original ob- Multiple R , Coeffi cients servations from  to . R , Y-intercept , Standardized R , Year , Table . Correlation matrix Resources Standard error , -, Subsidies Lacking fi nancial resources lacking Subsidies  Lacking fi nancial resources -,  After the trend was cleared of the time factor, R suff ered a mi- nor drop (,). Therefore, the dependence between the depend- Not being able to expose a trend with base data, a dependence ent variable (subsidies) and factor (lacking fi nancial resources) is was revealed when conducting research was cleared out of the present separately from time. time factor but with a minor response. However, when implementing a time lag in  period ( year), a linear trend with a de- C termination coeffi cient of , was displayed. This indicates that the change in subsidies reacts to the change in lacking fi nancial To sum up, during the research was conducted via correlational- resources with one period lag, while their unipath does not infl u- regression methods it was found out that Russian government ence the dependence between factors. Moreover, the correlation primarily focuses on the level of fi scal capacity of the region and

   I. M, Q  M C R       R F

5000 5000

4000 4000

3000 Δy = 0,0026Δx - 106,71 3000 R² = 0,0165 ΔY = 0,0002ΔX + 58,192 2000 2000 R² = 0,3829

1000 1000

0 0

-1000 -1000

-2000 -2000

-3000 -3000

   I. M, Q  M C not economic development utility. Without a correlational de- Factors infl uencing technology pendence in static model, an attempt to reveal it in dynamic model took place. Clearing the data from false correlation, the re- innovations costs sponse was negligible (R–,) that contradicted the hypothesis of achieving maximum economic utility. In a similar way, re- searching the lacking resources revealed that the largest response is present with a time lag in one period (R –,). Thus, it was proven that GRP and economic development of the region are not taken into account as a priority while imple- S V,R M menting subsidies allocation policy due to the importance of un- Students even fi scal capacity. Additionally, qualitative factors (e. g. geopo- Russian Presidential Academy of National litical factors) which cannot be included in the model are still of Economy and Public Administration signifi cance to the subsidies` allocation between the federal units Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the state. Furthermore, the research above can be a ground for further study. S O Associate Professor R Russian Presidential Academy of National . Belousova, A. V. (). Federal subsidies assessment on the dy- Economy and Public Administration namic of diff erentiation of the fi scal capacity in Russian Federa- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences tion. Habarovsk: fi nanci, credit, denezhnoe obrachenie. A . Matrusov, N. (). Regional planning and regional development of Russia. Moscow: Nauka. This article considers the most infl uential factors of technological innovations costs in regions of Russian . Ministry of Finance of Russian Federation. (). [online]. Federation. The most signifi cant factors are analyzed. Available at: https://www.minfi n.ru/ru/ By the use of correlation and regression analysis a . Ovsyannikova, S. N. (). Statistics for second-year students of multifactorial linear model is constructed. The accu- economic specialties. racy of the constructed model is proved by high coef- . Open budget of the Krasnodar crai. (). [online]. Available fi cient of determination R value. The paper demon- at: http://openbudgetregion.ru/ strates analysed indicator’s growth over time. The re- . Federal service of governmental statistics. (). [online]. lationship between the researched indicator’s and its Available at: http://www.gks.ru/ most signifi cant factor’s series is analyzed. Recom- . Russian Federation Budget Code from .. #-Federal mendations are made on technological innovations law (edited ..). [online]. Available at: http://www.con- costs management with a view to increasing the effi - sultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_/abcd- ciency of its implementation into production. cafeafccbbfdd/ Keywords: science, technologies, innovation, cost of technology, correlation and regression analysis, linear model.

   I. M, Q  M C not economic development utility. Without a correlational de- Factors infl uencing technology pendence in static model, an attempt to reveal it in dynamic model took place. Clearing the data from false correlation, the re- innovations costs sponse was negligible (R–,) that contradicted the hypothesis of achieving maximum economic utility. In a similar way, re- searching the lacking resources revealed that the largest response is present with a time lag in one period (R –,). Thus, it was proven that GRP and economic development of the region are not taken into account as a priority while imple- S V,R M menting subsidies allocation policy due to the importance of un- Students even fi scal capacity. Additionally, qualitative factors (e. g. geopo- Russian Presidential Academy of National litical factors) which cannot be included in the model are still of Economy and Public Administration signifi cance to the subsidies` allocation between the federal units Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the state. Furthermore, the research above can be a ground for further study. S O Associate Professor R Russian Presidential Academy of National . Belousova, A. V. (). Federal subsidies assessment on the dy- Economy and Public Administration namic of diff erentiation of the fi scal capacity in Russian Federa- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences tion. Habarovsk: fi nanci, credit, denezhnoe obrachenie. A . Matrusov, N. (). Regional planning and regional development of Russia. Moscow: Nauka. This article considers the most infl uential factors of technological innovations costs in regions of Russian . Ministry of Finance of Russian Federation. (). [online]. Federation. The most signifi cant factors are analyzed. Available at: https://www.minfi n.ru/ru/ By the use of correlation and regression analysis a . Ovsyannikova, S. N. (). Statistics for second-year students of multifactorial linear model is constructed. The accu- economic specialties. racy of the constructed model is proved by high coef- . Open budget of the Krasnodar crai. (). [online]. Available fi cient of determination R value. The paper demon- at: http://openbudgetregion.ru/ strates analysed indicator’s growth over time. The re- . Federal service of governmental statistics. (). [online]. lationship between the researched indicator’s and its Available at: http://www.gks.ru/ most signifi cant factor’s series is analyzed. Recom- . Russian Federation Budget Code from .. #-Federal mendations are made on technological innovations law (edited ..). [online]. Available at: http://www.con- costs management with a view to increasing the effi - sultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_/abcd- ciency of its implementation into production. cafeafccbbfdd/ Keywords: science, technologies, innovation, cost of technology, correlation and regression analysis, linear model.

   I. M, Q  M C F    

I YX X X X X X X X X X X X Y The aim of this research is to identify the factors that infl uence X  .  the amount of money fi rms allocate on technologies and innova- X  . .  tions in diff erent regions of Russia. Correlation and regression X  . . .  analysis were used. X . . . .  This article investigates the factors infl uencing technological X  . . . . .  innovations costs in  regions of Russian Federation. Data bas- X  . . . . . .  es provided by the Federal State Statistics Service. In the modern X  . . . . . . .  world, investment in science and technology can be a tool for X  . . . . . . . .  long-term development and can be vital in pursuing the goal of X  . . . . . . . . .  economic growth. Thus, the government is interested in the de- X  . . . . . . . . . .  velopment of digital economy. The costs vary in diff erent regions, X . . . . . . . . . . .  so twelve factors were selected, that allegedly aff ect the budget  X . . . . . . . . . . . .  allocation.  The analysis of the factors was produced in order to identify R those whose infl uence on the costs is more signifi cant. Matrix of pair correlation analysis identifi ed that the depend- Based on logical assumptions twelve factors were selected for ent variable (costs) has the following association with the factors: conducting the research: The data presented above shows that such factors as X  and X, X and X , X and X are associated stronger in comparison with • x — The amount of innovative goods and services;     the resulting factor, thus it is necessary to exclude them from the • x — Innovative activity of organizations (percentage of or- model. ganizations which develop technological and marketing in- Factors X and X are excluded because they have a weak asso- novations);   ciation with the resulting factor. • x — Internal R&D expenditure; Linear and exponential models were constructed. The former • x — Number of research scientists with a degree; showed higher coeffi cient of determination (R=,) than the • x — Number of personnel doing R&D; latter (R=,), which means that the linear model describes the • x — Organizations doing R&D; data in the most effi cient way. • x — Population; Coeffi cients • x — GRP; Intercept -. • x — Number of educational organizations; x . • x — Number of teachers in organizations that provide pri-  x mary, basic and secondary general education;  . — Number of students with a certifi cate of basic general x • x  -. education; x  . • x — Number of students with a certifi cate of secondary  Y=,x +,x –,x +,x –, general education.    

   I. M, Q  M C F    

The resulting equitation describes the linear relationship be- y = ,t+,t–,t+,t tween the costs of innovation technologies and four selected factors. Regression Statistics The model demonstrates the infl uence each of the four factors has Multiple R . on the result. Thus, a one unit change in the volume of innovative R Square . goods and services will lead to the shift of costs of ,; a one unit Adjusted R Square . change in domestic expenses on research and development will Standard Error . have a shift in costs of , as a consequence; the increase of the Observations  population of one million people will lead to the decrease of costs To determine the infl uence of one variable, namely GDP on re- of ,; and the increase of the GRP will raise the costs by ,. sponse variable (technological innovations costs) over time, Coeffi cient of determination is used to assess the effi ciency of time-series analysis is made. Factors’ reliance on time analysis the model: shows high coeffi cient of determination. Regression Statistics The analysis of relationship between factors over time also shows Multiple R . high coeffi cient of determination. To eliminate the infl uen ce of time R Square . and detect spurious correlation chain base method is used. Adjusted R Square . GDP (t) Standard Error . 25 000 Observations  x = 55.012t2 - 138.17t + 448.34 20 000 R square shows that in % of events the change of the re- R² = 0.9937 sponse variable can be explained by the change of other variables. 15 000 x = 1072.1t - 4191 Other % account for variables that are not considered in this R² = 0.9229 model. 10 000

df SS MS F Signifi cance F 5 000 Regression    . . Residual    0 Total   -5 000 To evaluate the statistical signifi cance of this model Fisher cri- 0 5 10 15 20 25 terion is used. Signifi cance F which is . confi rms Technological innovations costs (t) the representativeness of the model. 1000 y = 2.6468t2 - 18.791t + 40.046 R² = 0.9784 The linear model was modifi ed into the standardized scale to 800 compare non-dimensionalized values. The standardized scale of the linear model: 600

400 y = 39.438t - 183.17 Coeffi cients R² = 0.8649 Intercept  200 (x  — x  mean)/ . (x 0  — x  mean)/ . (x — x )/ -.   mean  -200 (x — x )/ .   mean  0 5 10 15 20 25

   I. M, Q  M C F    

y(x) the level of GDP in the previous period. The coeffi cient of deter- 800 mination has increased up to , which conﬁ rms the hypothesis. 700 600 C 500 y = 0.0375x - 34.773 R² = 0.9763 400 The correlation and regression analysis helped in determining 300 200 the factor which causes the change of technological innovations 100 costs to a greater extent — gross regional product. 0 Time-series analysis shows that technological innovations -100 costs in the current period depend on the level of GDP in the pre- 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 vious period. Several measures are introduced in order to increase the tech- ϮϬϬ Δy = 0.0232Δx + 12.641 nological innovations availability: R² = 0.1693 ϭϱϬ • To increase access of small and medium-sized businesses to the procurement of innovative products ϭϬϬ • To increase debt ﬁ nancing of innovative projects. • To develop technology commercialization mechanisms and ϱϬ to increase its effi ciency.

Ϭ • To ensure the development of innovative projects direct funding methods.

ͲϱϬ ͲϭϬϬϬ ͲϱϬϬ Ϭ ϱϬϬ ϭϬϬϬ ϭϱϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϮϱϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϯϱϬϬ R

200 . Russian Federal State Statistics Service URL: http://www.gks.ru Δy = 0.0448Δx - 7.4795 (accessed on: ..). R² = 0.6515 150 . Ovsiannikova, S. () Statistics: Student Book // M: Econ- form. 100 . Egorova, M. () Technological innovations as the basis for 50 changes in economic technological structure//UEkS. №  (). URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/tehnologicheskie-inno- 0 vatsii-kak-osnova-izmeneniya-tehnologicheskoy-struktury- ekonomiki (accessed on: ..). -50 -1 000 -500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 . Ovsiannikova, S. () Econometrics: Students Book // M: Delo. . Salgiriev, R. () Technological innovations costs analysis in Produced coeffi cient of determination shows that the correla- Russia // Terra Economicus. № –. URL: https://cyberleninka. tion between two variables was due to time. It is assumed that ru/article/n/analiz-zatrat-na-tehnologicheskie-innovatsii- technological innovations costs in the current period depend on rossiyskih-predpriyatiy (accessed on: ..).

   I. M, Q  M C F    

Ϭ • To ensure the development of innovative projects direct funding methods.

ͲϱϬ ͲϭϬϬϬ ͲϱϬϬ Ϭ ϱϬϬ ϭϬϬϬ ϭϱϬϬ ϮϬϬϬ ϮϱϬϬ ϯϬϬϬ ϯϱϬϬ R

  I      Investigating potential tourism nomic development. Further to this and in essence, this research triangulates three distinctive streams of information, namely, () strategies for promoting information provided by the Ministry of Tourism and Ethnic Arts the rich cultural heritage and Crafts of the Republic of Dagestan, () information sourced of the Republic of Dagestan from online sources and academic databases and () a short primary investigation with experts from the hospitality and tourism sectors. Lastly, recommendations are provided for further developing the tourism sector while taking into account the primary research fi ndings and industry literature. Key words: The Republic of Dagestan; Northern Caucasus; in- D D novative tourism strategies; digital tourism strategies Senior Lecturer Russian Presidential Academy of National I Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences The tourism and hospitality industries are of paramount importance for socio-economic developments, as well as for increasing D M M. V employment (Kurskiev, ). It is argued that the creation of a Professor single job in the tourism industry entails the creation of up to Centre of Humanitarian education fi ve jobs in related industries (Andreyanova and Ivolga, ). In Moscow Polytechnic University, Moscow Russia, statistics show that in , the tourism industry has contributed with . trillion rubles (approx.  billion US dollars), D R A the equivalent of .% of all exports, thus aff ecting  related in- Professor dustries (Dagestata, ). A place of great tourism potential in Dagestan State University, Makhachkala southern Russia is the Republic of Dagestan. This paper will discuss various intricacies of the hospitality and tourism industries H A in Dagestan and present various strategies for cultivating this Head director sector. Firstly, it will provide an overview of the republic of Dag- Dagestan Training Centre, Makhachkala estan and its tourism potential. Secondly, the methodology is briefl y described and recommendations are presented based on Y E primary fi ndings. Lastly, further recommendations are provided Global Head of Customer Content and Advocacy to suit the touristic potential. Marketing Unify, Sofi a T R  D    A    

This paper initially provides a summary of the mul- With a total surface of , sq.km and a population of just over tiple streams of tourism potential in Dagestan and  million people, Dagestan is a mountainous region with good ac- discusses the importance of tourism in socio-eco- cess to the Caspian Sea. Located in the north-eastern Caucasus

  I      Investigating potential tourism nomic development. Further to this and in essence, this research triangulates three distinctive streams of information, namely, () strategies for promoting information provided by the Ministry of Tourism and Ethnic Arts the rich cultural heritage and Crafts of the Republic of Dagestan, () information sourced of the Republic of Dagestan from online sources and academic databases and () a short primary investigation with experts from the hospitality and tourism sectors. Lastly, recommendations are provided for further developing the tourism sector while taking into account the primary research fi ndings and industry literature. Key words: The Republic of Dagestan; Northern Caucasus; in- D D novative tourism strategies; digital tourism strategies Senior Lecturer Russian Presidential Academy of National I Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences The tourism and hospitality industries are of paramount importance for socio-economic developments, as well as for increasing D M M. V employment (Kurskiev, ). It is argued that the creation of a Professor single job in the tourism industry entails the creation of up to Centre of Humanitarian education fi ve jobs in related industries (Andreyanova and Ivolga, ). In Moscow Polytechnic University, Moscow Russia, statistics show that in , the tourism industry has contributed with . trillion rubles (approx.  billion US dollars), D R A the equivalent of .% of all exports, thus aff ecting  related in- Professor dustries (Dagestata, ). A place of great tourism potential in Dagestan State University, Makhachkala southern Russia is the Republic of Dagestan. This paper will discuss various intricacies of the hospitality and tourism industries H A in Dagestan and present various strategies for cultivating this Head director sector. Firstly, it will provide an overview of the republic of Dag- Dagestan Training Centre, Makhachkala estan and its tourism potential. Secondly, the methodology is briefl y described and recommendations are presented based on Y E primary fi ndings. Lastly, further recommendations are provided Global Head of Customer Content and Advocacy to suit the touristic potential. Marketing Unify, Sofi a T R  D    A    

   I. M, Q  M C I     

room for an extra guest in a Dagestani household. Traditionally, urban households have been hosting ‘kunaks’ from neighbouring villages for centuries. ‘Kunaks’ are people from villages, yet it is commonly translated into brother, sister, or relative. It is also the tradition here that every guest, regardless of their nationality or faith, should always be provided with the best food and a joyful welcome. An entrenched rule in the minds of locals is that guests should be served fi rst; this acts as an important basis for the development of tourism in Dagestan, especially the ethno-gastronomic one. region, it was previously known as ‘Albania’ or ‘Caucasian Alba- The tourism potential of Dagestan nia’. This is the most multi-ethnic region of the Russian Federa- tion. Many tribes have lived here for centuries and have learnt to The Republic of Dagestan has signifi cant touristic and recrea- coexist in harmony thanks to the unwritten laws of hospitality. tional resources and is one of the few places in Russia which fea- Since ancient times, the tribes which inhabited present-day tures a combination of many unique factors, such as varied land- Dagestan were Turruk, Lulubei, Okhtong, Sarmatians, Scythians, scapes, good climate, mineral springs, therapeutic muds, sandy Caspians, Kassites and other; presently, the main tribes living beaches, mountainous regions, cultural heritage sites, and many here are Avars, Kumyks, Darghins, Lezgins, Varnishes, Tabasarans, more, whose potential is not yet used at their full potential. Tour- and Nogai. Each tribe and ethnicity has its own language, tradi- ism is one of the most promising sectors for developing the econ- tions and cultural traits, and the Russian language is used as the omy of Dagestan and the government intends to build appropri- lingua franca. Although each tribe has distinctive beliefs and tra- ate infrastructure to be able to host more than a million tourists ditions, hospitality laws are rigorously respected by all, acting as annually, which would entail an additional  billion rubles and a moral code in the mountains. Hospitality is present even in more than k new jobs. If successful, this will allegedly solve folklore and literature, which include the Kumyk “Bogatyr Kart- social and economic problems and also increase the welfare lev- Kozhak and the beautiful Maksuman”, the Avar “Hochbar”, the el of the population. There are multiple types of tourism in Dag- Nogai “Batyr Amit, the son of Aysyla” and many more (Akhme- estan, namely, ecotourism, beach tourism, medical tourism, eth- dova, ). no-cultural tourism, sport and extreme-sports tourism, gastro- Guests are a symbol and value reference point for most tribes nomic tourism, religious tourism, mountain tourism, and and almost all literature heroes are portrayed as possessing not cultural heritage tourism; each is provided with a brief descrip- only a cult of high heroism but also as having an increased cult tion below. of hospitality towards guests, thus crafting a hospitality-focused Ecotourism — Ecotourism in the Republic of Dagestan in the culture (Akhmedova, ). The Avar ‘Hochbar’ song of the th medium term can be up to  thousand people per year. The century dictates that a person could be punished for violating rich variety of fl ora and fauna from Dagestan has no equal in any law of hospitality — ‘violators of the sacred laws of the Russia (Magomedbekov et al., ); from subtropical forests mountains and hospitality would burn in fi re’ (Magomedbekov et close to the river Samur, the desert and semi-desert in the North al., ). It could be argued that hospitality is in the blood of of the Republic, to alpine tundra and glaciers. The fl ora of Dag- every Dagestani, and many claims suggest that there is always estan has about  species of plants, including many endem-

   I. M, Q  M C I     

   I. M, Q  M C I      ics and relics. The rich and diverse fauna includes  species of lages, are well preserved. Very interesting are the weddings in the mammals,  species of birds and  species of fi sh, including villages of Khuduts, Duakar, Kischi, Chishili, Harbuk, and many sturgeon. Other unique natural landscapes include Sarah-Kum more. Dagestan is also a centre for the development of unique folk barchan (m height, being the most unique detached barchan), art crafts. On its territory are manufactured jewellery (c. Kubachi, mount Pushkin-Tau (Kayakent district), the Karadahskaja Gorge Dakhadayevsky district, Gocatl district, Khunzakhsky), carpets (Gunibsky district), the Grand Canyon of Sulak, the Samur Huch- (Tabasaran district), woodwork (Groznyy, Untsukulsky district) and ninskĳ waterfall, and the Mount Bazardüzü mountain. ceramics (Balkhar, Akushinsky region) and many other craft prod- Beach tourism — The length of the Caspian Sea coastline is  ucts. Dagestani tourism offi cials understand the value of their eth- kilometres with extensive sandy beaches, warm sea and ionized air. no-cultural tourism potential, and claim that in order to further Currently, there are  beaches in the Republic ( more than in develop their folk, arts and crafts, it is necessary to integrate them ) totalling a length of  meters of natural sea beach in the into the tourism industry by creating specialized tourist complex- cities of Makhachkala, Izberbash, Derbent, Kaspiysk and Kayakent. es with full tourism infrastructures, such as accommodation facil- What is also unique in Russia is that in Dagestan the bathing sea- ities, catering, trade-in folk arts and crafts, and master classes. son lasts for  days per year. In , the number of tourists vis- Currently, in the Republic of Dagestan, there are more than  iting the Caspian Sea coast amounted to about  thousand peo- small and medium-sized enterprises producing products of folk art ple. In the summer months, the occupancy of most hospitality es- crafts. In total, more than , people are employed in the fi eld tablishments is close to %, and the main visitors are from of folk arts and crafts, including more than  individual entre- either Dagestan or from the neighbouring regions of Russia. preneurs. In , individual entrepreneurs in the fi eld of folk arts Medical tourism — Dagestan houses more than  balneolog- and crafts received  grants and as a result, in , the manufac- ical resorts and the government intends to focus on developing turing volume of national art crafts products amounted to . more, in its aim to support the health improvement of its citizens, million rubles. as well as to attract visitors interested in this kind of tourism. Sport and Extreme-sports tourism — Khabib Nurmagomedov’s The SPA services contributed to the economy with a total of . recent UFC victory has improved Dagestan’s sports tourism million rubles in . Further regarding Dagestan’s uniqueness, branding and there are claims suggesting that Dagestan has suit- there are about  mineral water sources and a number of ther- able conditions for training athletes of diff erent ages and fi tness apeutic mud deposits scattered throughout the country. Also, the levels. Nonetheless, when accessing Dagestan’s Wikipedia page, ‘Talgi’ resort is the only resort in the world which uses a therapy under the ‘notable people’ section, out of  people mentioned, based on sulfi de high-water containing hydrogen sulphide. There  of them are world champions in wrestling, MMA, UFC, boxing, are claims which suggest that the water quality has the gift of Muay Thai, or other sports (Wikipedia, ). This can only mean treating musculoskeletal system, dermatological, gynaecological that Dagestan has appropriate training grounds for sports cham- and neurological diseases. pions. Extreme tourism is becoming popular amongst young peo- Ethno-cultural tourism — Dagestan is a multinational republic ple who are no longer interested in the traditional forms of tour- which unites  nationalities. The culture and traditions of the ism. Dagestan has lots to off er in this area too, having activities people of Dagestan are very diverse and were formed over the such as hang gliding, kitesurfi ng, paragliding, rafting, jeeping, years and passed on from generation to generation. Each of these and canyoning. Furthermore, regional, Russian and internation- nations has its own characteristics and diff erences, which shapes al competitions in mountaineering, rock climbing, rafting, and their identity. Folk traditions in many areas, especially in the vil- kitesurfi ng are held in Dagestan.

   I. M, Q  M C I      ics and relics. The rich and diverse fauna includes  species of lages, are well preserved. Very interesting are the weddings in the mammals,  species of birds and  species of fi sh, including villages of Khuduts, Duakar, Kischi, Chishili, Harbuk, and many sturgeon. Other unique natural landscapes include Sarah-Kum more. Dagestan is also a centre for the development of unique folk barchan (m height, being the most unique detached barchan), art crafts. On its territory are manufactured jewellery (c. Kubachi, mount Pushkin-Tau (Kayakent district), the Karadahskaja Gorge Dakhadayevsky district, Gocatl district, Khunzakhsky), carpets (Gunibsky district), the Grand Canyon of Sulak, the Samur Huch- (Tabasaran district), woodwork (Groznyy, Untsukulsky district) and ninskĳ waterfall, and the Mount Bazardüzü mountain. ceramics (Balkhar, Akushinsky region) and many other craft prod- Beach tourism — The length of the Caspian Sea coastline is  ucts. Dagestani tourism offi cials understand the value of their eth- kilometres with extensive sandy beaches, warm sea and ionized air. no-cultural tourism potential, and claim that in order to further Currently, there are  beaches in the Republic ( more than in develop their folk, arts and crafts, it is necessary to integrate them ) totalling a length of  meters of natural sea beach in the into the tourism industry by creating specialized tourist complex- cities of Makhachkala, Izberbash, Derbent, Kaspiysk and Kayakent. es with full tourism infrastructures, such as accommodation facil- What is also unique in Russia is that in Dagestan the bathing sea- ities, catering, trade-in folk arts and crafts, and master classes. son lasts for  days per year. In , the number of tourists vis- Currently, in the Republic of Dagestan, there are more than  iting the Caspian Sea coast amounted to about  thousand peo- small and medium-sized enterprises producing products of folk art ple. In the summer months, the occupancy of most hospitality es- crafts. In total, more than , people are employed in the fi eld tablishments is close to %, and the main visitors are from of folk arts and crafts, including more than  individual entre- either Dagestan or from the neighbouring regions of Russia. preneurs. In , individual entrepreneurs in the fi eld of folk arts Medical tourism — Dagestan houses more than  balneolog- and crafts received  grants and as a result, in , the manufac- ical resorts and the government intends to focus on developing turing volume of national art crafts products amounted to . more, in its aim to support the health improvement of its citizens, million rubles. as well as to attract visitors interested in this kind of tourism. Sport and Extreme-sports tourism — Khabib Nurmagomedov’s The SPA services contributed to the economy with a total of . recent UFC victory has improved Dagestan’s sports tourism million rubles in . Further regarding Dagestan’s uniqueness, branding and there are claims suggesting that Dagestan has suit- there are about  mineral water sources and a number of ther- able conditions for training athletes of diff erent ages and fi tness apeutic mud deposits scattered throughout the country. Also, the levels. Nonetheless, when accessing Dagestan’s Wikipedia page, ‘Talgi’ resort is the only resort in the world which uses a therapy under the ‘notable people’ section, out of  people mentioned, based on sulfi de high-water containing hydrogen sulphide. There  of them are world champions in wrestling, MMA, UFC, boxing, are claims which suggest that the water quality has the gift of Muay Thai, or other sports (Wikipedia, ). This can only mean treating musculoskeletal system, dermatological, gynaecological that Dagestan has appropriate training grounds for sports cham- and neurological diseases. pions. Extreme tourism is becoming popular amongst young peo- Ethno-cultural tourism — Dagestan is a multinational republic ple who are no longer interested in the traditional forms of tour- which unites  nationalities. The culture and traditions of the ism. Dagestan has lots to off er in this area too, having activities people of Dagestan are very diverse and were formed over the such as hang gliding, kitesurfi ng, paragliding, rafting, jeeping, years and passed on from generation to generation. Each of these and canyoning. Furthermore, regional, Russian and internation- nations has its own characteristics and diff erences, which shapes al competitions in mountaineering, rock climbing, rafting, and their identity. Folk traditions in many areas, especially in the vil- kitesurfi ng are held in Dagestan.

   I. M, Q  M C I     

Gastronomic tourism — The variety and unique recipes of tradi- city in Russia and one of the oldest in the world. Derbent and its tional Dagestani dishes are a signifi cant factor in attracting new fortress are included in the natural heritage of UNESCO. tourist groups to the republic. Both domestic and foreign tourists are showing a keen interest in Dagestani cuisine. This segment of Statistics about tourism in Dagestan tourism was underdeveloped until recently and became popular among tourist groups. This year, the capital city of Makhachkala In recent years there has been a positive increase in the major in- hosted the second international culinary championship; having dicators for the tourism industry, having an annual domestic and attracted abundant media attention, this will allegedly support international tourist growth of more than %. Within the last further development for this niche. However, there are certain is- four years, the tourist fl ow in Derbent, an ancient city of Dagestan, sues related to further development, such as the poorly developed has more than tripled; in , when celebrating the  th anni- infrastructure and of the catering facilities in rural areas, the lack versary there were around . tourists and in , more than of trained personnel, sanitary and epidemiological issues, and an .. More information related to the industry growth is pre- insuffi cient amount of promotional materials for the development sented in appendix . The most visited tourist site of Dagestan in of gastronomic projects in rural municipalities of the Republic.  was the Sulak canyon, having more than . tourists. Religious tourism — Religious tourism should not be neglected. The number of foreign tourists in  was . thousand people, The Djuma mosque, which is one of the fi ve oldest mosques of mainly from Greece, Cyprus, Iran, U.A.E., and China. the world (–) is considered to be one of the main reference Some estimates claim that Dagestan has a recreational capac- points of the spread of Islam in Russia. ity of more than . million tourists/year, and according to dag- Mountain tourism — In Dagestan, there are  peaks, the height stata, the volume of paid tourist services amounted to  billion of which exceeds  m. These are covered with non-melting rubles. Having  collective accommodation establishments to- snow and glaciers, and a large number of turbulent rivers. On the taling  beds, these include  tourist base,  health insti- territory of southern Dagestan there is a unique mountain com- tutions,  hotels, and  guesthouses. plex of great interest to climbers (Shalbuzdag —  m, Bazard- The most popular period is from the end of April until the be- yuzi —  m and Yarydag —  m above sea level), where ginning of October, that is, the peak of the tourist season and the Russian Championships in mountain sports of all categories and average tourist age is  to . The amount of money that tourists complexity levels take place. These peaks are distinguished by an spend in Dagestan depends on the duration of the trip and the pur- abundance of Sun, ultraviolet radiation and the lack of winds and pose of their visit. The average spent per day on a tourist route is fogs.  rubles (equivalent of $.) which includes transport, tour Cultural heritage tourism — The cultural heritage of Dagestan escort, tour guide, and lunch. A further  rubles (approx. $) also deserves a special place in the Russian Federation. Dagest- is spent on accommodation and  rubles ($.) on dinner. This an has  cultural heritage sites (historical and cultural mon- is signifi cantly cheaper than most places around the world and this uments), of which  are cultural heritage sites of federal sig- fact should be valued through promotional campaigns. nifi cance and , units of regional signifi cance, including historical and architectural complexes. There are numerous Tourism strategies in Dagestan monuments of history and architecture, for example, the Naryn- Kala fortress, the Ahulgo mountain (place battle Shamil), the vil- Dagestani offi cials understand the need to improve the safety, ac- lage of Kubachi, and many museums (Museum of local lore, Art cessibility and comfort of Dagestan. Tourism strategies include Museum, etc.). Dagestan also houses Derbent, the most ancient the construction of new accommodation facilities, modernising

   I. M, Q  M C I     

   I. M, Q  M C I      its infrastructure, as well as building more roads and recreation- Needless to say, that this message acts against all major eff orts al tourist special zones. There are also aims to attract suffi cient undertaken by Dagestani tourism offi cials. As this paper will lat- investment to build ski resorts and more recreational complexes. er reveal, the majority of the respondents felt that it was going In , the ministry actively participated in international tour- to be a ‘not quite safe’ place before their visits, and felt that it was ist forums, exhibitions and fairs, such as the Fitur (Madrid), ITB a relatively safe place after their visits. For this purpose, sets of (Berlin), the Russian-Bulgarian Tourism Forum (Sofi a), and the measures aimed at creating a positive image of Dagestan should MITT (Moscow), where they claimed to have distributed more be assumed, with coverage on Russian and international media than  thousand advertising materials which included brochures, channels. Further to this, other shortcomings include low levels fl yers, guides, tourist cards, and DVDs in English and in Manda- of customer service and a lack of modern infrastructure. rin Chinese. Furthermore, later this year, numerous forums are scheduled to take place in Dagestan, namely ‘Open Dagestan’, the M  M ‘International Maritime Forum’, as well as a regional fi shing competition. The Republic has also established an independent agen- Data collection cy responsible for the development of the tourism industry, whose work includes the implementation of state policies in the The information provided in this article was collected from both fi eld of tourism, creating conditions for developing the infra- primary and secondary sources. The aforementioned secondary structure and attracting investments. Their future development information was sourced from the scarce literature found in aca- strategy is encompassing two stages, namely, the ‘complementa- demic databases, online websites and, most importantly, infor- ry’ stage (planned for the period of –) and the ‘progres- mation provided by the Ministry of Tourism and Ethnic Arts and sive development’ stage (planned for the period of –). Crafts of the Republic of Dagestan. The complementary stage focuses on developing the beach, eth- The primary data was collected from  world-renowned chefs, no-cultural and medical types of tourism, and the progressive de- each with a vast experience in the hospitality and tourism sec- velopment stage will focus on infrastructural developments. tors, through an online Survey Monkey questionnaire (), printed questionnaires () and semi-structured interviews (). All re- nd Barriers encountered in the tourism industry of Dagestan spondents were approached during the  international culinary championship held in Dagestan. The questionnaire (appendix ) However much tourism potential Dagestan has, the negative pub- consisted of nine questions and it was printed in both English lic perception about the socio-economic and political situation and Russian languages, because not all respondents spoke fl uent in Dagestan acts detrimental for developing this sector. When English. The questions aimed to be simple, as the respondents’ Googling the word ‘Dagestan’, the fi rst link to appear is Wikipe- available time was limited, but relevant for sharing their exper- dia’s ‘Dagestan’ webpage, followed by main attractions, and tise in the context of developing tourism strategies for the Re- thirdly, under the ‘People also ask’ section, the most common public of Dagestan. The completion time was not measured in de- question asked is ‘Is it safe to visit Dagestan?’. The answer is: tail, but an average estimate would suggest that respondents spent circa – minutes on completing all questions. ‘Dagestan is not a safe tourist destination by any stretch of the Questions – were used to identify the nationality of the re- imagination. The mountainous areas of the republic (i. e., the spondents, their job title and how many years of experience they most interesting areas) have seen major military operations in have in the fi eld of hospitality. Questions  and  assessed the re- recent years between various groups and the Russian military’ spondents’ perception about how safe it felt to visit Dagestan be-

   I. M, Q  M C I      its infrastructure, as well as building more roads and recreation- Needless to say, that this message acts against all major eff orts al tourist special zones. There are also aims to attract suffi cient undertaken by Dagestani tourism offi cials. As this paper will lat- investment to build ski resorts and more recreational complexes. er reveal, the majority of the respondents felt that it was going In , the ministry actively participated in international tour- to be a ‘not quite safe’ place before their visits, and felt that it was ist forums, exhibitions and fairs, such as the Fitur (Madrid), ITB a relatively safe place after their visits. For this purpose, sets of (Berlin), the Russian-Bulgarian Tourism Forum (Sofi a), and the measures aimed at creating a positive image of Dagestan should MITT (Moscow), where they claimed to have distributed more be assumed, with coverage on Russian and international media than  thousand advertising materials which included brochures, channels. Further to this, other shortcomings include low levels fl yers, guides, tourist cards, and DVDs in English and in Manda- of customer service and a lack of modern infrastructure. rin Chinese. Furthermore, later this year, numerous forums are scheduled to take place in Dagestan, namely ‘Open Dagestan’, the M  M ‘International Maritime Forum’, as well as a regional fi shing competition. The Republic has also established an independent agen- Data collection cy responsible for the development of the tourism industry, whose work includes the implementation of state policies in the The information provided in this article was collected from both fi eld of tourism, creating conditions for developing the infra- primary and secondary sources. The aforementioned secondary structure and attracting investments. Their future development information was sourced from the scarce literature found in aca- strategy is encompassing two stages, namely, the ‘complementa- demic databases, online websites and, most importantly, infor- ry’ stage (planned for the period of –) and the ‘progres- mation provided by the Ministry of Tourism and Ethnic Arts and sive development’ stage (planned for the period of –). Crafts of the Republic of Dagestan. The complementary stage focuses on developing the beach, eth- The primary data was collected from  world-renowned chefs, no-cultural and medical types of tourism, and the progressive de- each with a vast experience in the hospitality and tourism sec- velopment stage will focus on infrastructural developments. tors, through an online Survey Monkey questionnaire (), printed questionnaires () and semi-structured interviews (). All re- nd Barriers encountered in the tourism industry of Dagestan spondents were approached during the  international culinary championship held in Dagestan. The questionnaire (appendix ) However much tourism potential Dagestan has, the negative pub- consisted of nine questions and it was printed in both English lic perception about the socio-economic and political situation and Russian languages, because not all respondents spoke fl uent in Dagestan acts detrimental for developing this sector. When English. The questions aimed to be simple, as the respondents’ Googling the word ‘Dagestan’, the fi rst link to appear is Wikipe- available time was limited, but relevant for sharing their exper- dia’s ‘Dagestan’ webpage, followed by main attractions, and tise in the context of developing tourism strategies for the Re- thirdly, under the ‘People also ask’ section, the most common public of Dagestan. The completion time was not measured in de- question asked is ‘Is it safe to visit Dagestan?’. The answer is: tail, but an average estimate would suggest that respondents spent circa – minutes on completing all questions. ‘Dagestan is not a safe tourist destination by any stretch of the Questions – were used to identify the nationality of the re- imagination. The mountainous areas of the republic (i. e., the spondents, their job title and how many years of experience they most interesting areas) have seen major military operations in have in the fi eld of hospitality. Questions  and  assessed the re- recent years between various groups and the Russian military’ spondents’ perception about how safe it felt to visit Dagestan be-

   I. M, Q  M C I      fore and after their visits; both questions employed the same tors. Although predominantly chefs, these are people who travel fi ve-point Likert scale,  being not safe at all, and  being very very often to judge culinary competitions and who understand safe. Because question  enquired how safe the respondents per- the value and intricacies of tourism destinations. With an aver- ceived Dagestan before their travels, a sub-question was asked age of . years (per respondent) of experience in the hospitali- here in order to understand what channels infl uenced their per- ty and tourism trades, the sum total of their working years totals ception the most. Question  aimed to identify what did the re-  years. Hence, it is safe to assume that their expressed opin- spondents enjoy most when visiting Dagestan and question  was ions are of great value for this investigation. designed to investigate what should be improved in Dagestan for When asked about how safe they perceived Dagestan before future tourists and any constructive criticisms they want to men- visiting, with an average of . (– scale), most respondents tion. Question  asked respondents to mention as many recom- said that they thought it was not too safe to visit. Their opinions mendations as they could think related to developing the tour- were infl uenced by word of mouth, friend suggestions, media (in- ism industry in Dagestan. Ultimately, the purpose of question  cluding TV and the internet), and foreign government websites. was to provide the respondents with the opportunity of sharing However, they were all sure that they will be safe during their trip, further comments related to tourism strategies or their visit ex- as the event they attended was part of a government funded pro- perience. ject. After their trip, their safety perception increased to . (– The aforementioned questionnaire was used as a starting scale). This shows that there is a predominantly negative percep- point and open framework for the semi-structured interviews, tion about safety when visiting Dagestan, but also shows that and allowed a more in-depth understanding about the theme people improve their safety perception after visiting. through following topical trajectories with the interviewees What the respondents enjoyed most about Dagestan were (Saunders et al., ). The average time spent on the interviews (in this order): the natural landscapes, the friendliness and hos- was – minutes for each interview. Further to this, the au- pitality of the local people, the food, the traditions, the histori- thors have also attended round table discussions with high-rank- cal sites, the culinary competition they attended, the freshness ing government offi cials who are involved in promoting the tour- and the quality of the ingredients and the music. Similarly, in the ism industry in Dagestan. most reoccurring order, what the respondents did not enjoy the most were the unpleasant look of the airport and of the roads, F   the lack of appropriate infrastructure, the squat type lavatories, the visa cost and the challenges associated with obtaining a tour- The respondents’ countries of origin for both the questionnaires ist visa, the lack of English signage, the lack of English speaking and semi-structured interviews include France, Germany, Mauri- staff , the lack of trained hospitality staff , and the shortage of in- tius, Serbia, Romania, Slovenia, Wales, Italy and Macedonia. Hav- formation bureaus, souvenir shops and handmade goods. ing respondents from countries who have diff erent cultures and When asked about what recommendations they wish to pro- opinions towards tourism and hospitality adds value to the opin- vide, the respondents mentioned numerous aspects, clustered as ions they expressed. Furthermore, most respondents were WACS follows: (World Association of Chef Communities) international culinary judges or ‘restaurant service’ judges. Besides these titles, most re- Infrastructure spondents have other job titles too, which include President of the National Gastronomic National Association, President of Cu- • Public places should also have European style lavatories, linary Guilds, culinary advisors, chef consultants, and chef direc- since this has caused great discomfort; also on this note, it

   I. M, Q  M C I      fore and after their visits; both questions employed the same tors. Although predominantly chefs, these are people who travel fi ve-point Likert scale,  being not safe at all, and  being very very often to judge culinary competitions and who understand safe. Because question  enquired how safe the respondents per- the value and intricacies of tourism destinations. With an aver- ceived Dagestan before their travels, a sub-question was asked age of . years (per respondent) of experience in the hospitali- here in order to understand what channels infl uenced their per- ty and tourism trades, the sum total of their working years totals ception the most. Question  aimed to identify what did the re-  years. Hence, it is safe to assume that their expressed opin- spondents enjoy most when visiting Dagestan and question  was ions are of great value for this investigation. designed to investigate what should be improved in Dagestan for When asked about how safe they perceived Dagestan before future tourists and any constructive criticisms they want to men- visiting, with an average of . (– scale), most respondents tion. Question  asked respondents to mention as many recom- said that they thought it was not too safe to visit. Their opinions mendations as they could think related to developing the tour- were infl uenced by word of mouth, friend suggestions, media (in- ism industry in Dagestan. Ultimately, the purpose of question  cluding TV and the internet), and foreign government websites. was to provide the respondents with the opportunity of sharing However, they were all sure that they will be safe during their trip, further comments related to tourism strategies or their visit ex- as the event they attended was part of a government funded pro- perience. ject. After their trip, their safety perception increased to . (– The aforementioned questionnaire was used as a starting scale). This shows that there is a predominantly negative percep- point and open framework for the semi-structured interviews, tion about safety when visiting Dagestan, but also shows that and allowed a more in-depth understanding about the theme people improve their safety perception after visiting. through following topical trajectories with the interviewees What the respondents enjoyed most about Dagestan were (Saunders et al., ). The average time spent on the interviews (in this order): the natural landscapes, the friendliness and hos- was – minutes for each interview. Further to this, the au- pitality of the local people, the food, the traditions, the histori- thors have also attended round table discussions with high-rank- cal sites, the culinary competition they attended, the freshness ing government offi cials who are involved in promoting the tour- and the quality of the ingredients and the music. Similarly, in the ism industry in Dagestan. most reoccurring order, what the respondents did not enjoy the most were the unpleasant look of the airport and of the roads, F   the lack of appropriate infrastructure, the squat type lavatories, the visa cost and the challenges associated with obtaining a tour- The respondents’ countries of origin for both the questionnaires ist visa, the lack of English signage, the lack of English speaking and semi-structured interviews include France, Germany, Mauri- staff , the lack of trained hospitality staff , and the shortage of in- tius, Serbia, Romania, Slovenia, Wales, Italy and Macedonia. Hav- formation bureaus, souvenir shops and handmade goods. ing respondents from countries who have diff erent cultures and When asked about what recommendations they wish to pro- opinions towards tourism and hospitality adds value to the opin- vide, the respondents mentioned numerous aspects, clustered as ions they expressed. Furthermore, most respondents were WACS follows: (World Association of Chef Communities) international culinary judges or ‘restaurant service’ judges. Besides these titles, most re- Infrastructure spondents have other job titles too, which include President of the National Gastronomic National Association, President of Cu- • Public places should also have European style lavatories, linary Guilds, culinary advisors, chef consultants, and chef direc- since this has caused great discomfort; also on this note, it

   I. M, Q  M C I     

was revealed that there should be separate outdoor sanitary Investment in education and training facilities for men and women when outdoor events are planned • There should be more English-speaking staff members • There should be more English signage • There should be better trained staff members in touristic • The airport requires an upgrade. The majority of the tou- places. However hospitable local people were seen, it was rists are fl ying in to Makhachkala and this is their fi rst im- also mentioned that the customer service level needs to be pression; implicitly, this needs to feel more welcoming and improved in the service industries more aesthetically pleasing • Taxi drivers should receive some short-course training in • The overall infrastructure and roads need improving, be- customer service. cause some respondents felt unsafe when travelling on the • It was mentioned that although Russian is the lingua fran- roads ca amongst the numerous ethnicities living in Dagestan, • More attention should be paid to the fi ner details related to the English language is the lingua franca for tourism. Two organising events respondents mentioned that, in schools, children should learn English from their early years as well, in order to have Promotion and enhanced visibility on a national a future generation who can welcome and converse with and international level foreign tourists. Also on this note it was mentioned that people working in service industries should speak basic • More online visibility about tourism in Dagestan with in- English too; thus, the recommendation is to have basic formation provided in English English courses • More foreign journalists specialised in food, wine and folk- • Investment in staff training. Further to just learning basic lore should be invited to Dagestan. Because there is so English, new generations should be trained for the hospi- much that Dagestan has to off er, it would be a good idea to tality and tourism industries. While some respondents rec- have professionals writing articles about their experience. ommended that there should be cookery schools, customer Three respondents explained that international media service training centres and hospitality universities in Dag- should know about how beautiful the Dagestani attractions estan, others mentioned that Dagestan should also off er fi - are, and how hospitable Dagestani people are with foreign nancial support for scholarships to send some of its bright- visitors. Another respondent mentioned that tourism agen- est young minds to train at the world’s top hospitality cies from Russia and abroad should be invited for future schools. events or festivals. • Similar to the abovementioned point, tourism experts from Recommendations related to gastro-tourism Dagestan should be attending world tourism events and travel fairs to promote their republic • Building up a passionate Dagestani chef to become a posi- • Organise events similar to the culinary championship, be- tive symbol of Dagestani foods through national and inter- cause everyone seemed to have enjoyed it. One respondent national media exposure (celebrity chef) said that there should be a chefs’ association established • Design a gastro-historic tour around Dagestan, which could and arrange annual culinary championships, including a also include wine tastings in local vineyards competition based on traditional food. • Promote Dagestani food products through Russian and international supermarkets

   I. M, Q  M C I     

• Design gastro tourism packages. One respondent mentioned that on his trip to Vietnam, when he booked his hotel, he was also given the opportunity to have a package that included Vietnamese cookery classes. Something similar could be applied in Dagestan’s hospitality scene.

Facilitating visa recommendations

• Instead of charging for a tourist visa, the money could be

taken from tourists in other forms, including from the tax- ation on the money these tourists spend. Two of the re- F. . A touchpoint map example spondents mentioned that their visa cost was more expen- (https://mjpdelfi n.wordpress.com/tag/touchpoints/) sive than their fl ight cost. potential. There aren’t many places worldwide which could pride Other comments and recommendations themselves with encompassing ecotourism, beach tourism, medical tourism, ethno-cultural tourism, sport and extreme-sports • It is important to consider Dagestan’s Islamic infl uence, tourism, gastronomic tourism, religious tourism, mountain tour- where alcohol consumption, although not prohibited, is not ism, and cultural heritage tourism in one place. Promotion strat- common; this is important for designing the visitor profi le. egies should be considered to maximise the potential of each • For events there should be a better allocation of resources — type of tourism. Although witnessing signifi cant growth YoY, some respondents felt that in organising events, some there is still scope for growth. It can be seen that some measures things were well catered, but some other aspects were ne- have already been taken into account by Dagestani authorities, glected and they have planned numerous future strategies. As initial • One respondent felt that there was too much wastage and strategies, we recommend touchpoint mapping, value co-crea- that people should understand the importance of minimis- tion, visitor profi ling and using appropriate channels to attract ing wastage them, and more research. After these, a digital strategy is briefl y • One respondent felt that it was a great idea to have high presented. ranking offi cials and the media visiting these events, as it Touchpoint mapping — an increasingly growing and simple-to- enhanced the importance of the event. use concept is that of touchpoint mapping. A touchpoint could be regarded as any interaction between an existing or potential F  customer with your business, before, during and after a purchase decision is made. Our investigation shows that Dagestan is a place of great natural Each touchpoint is crucial in forming a positive or negative and cultural heritage which can form a unique off er on the world perception for customers, in this case, visitors. An experience tourist market. However, the existing unsolved problems lead to map could also be included in this concept. Arranging these low internal demand and adverse demand on the international touchpoints on a map provides a holistic understanding from a tourist market. It can be clearly observed that Dagestan has much visitor’s point of view (Ewerman, ). To exemplify, some neg- to off er with regards to tourism and that it should maximise its ative touchpoints identifi ed in this paper were the negative per-

   I. M, Q  M C I     

Facilitating visa recommendations

• Instead of charging for a tourist visa, the money could be

   I. M, Q  M C I      ception related to the safety of Dagestan available after a Goog- D  le search, the unpleasant aesthetics of the airport, or the impo- lite taxi drivers. As positive touchpoints were the beautiful Digital strategy is of paramount importance in tourism, as it landscapes, the event that the participants attended, the food, has the potential to empower positive word-of-mouth and en- and the hospitality of the people. Each stage shown in the pho- hance the ‘virality’ eff ect of the information online (Vaish, ). to should be empathetically considered for improving the over- It is also crucial for eff ective communication with the millennial all tourist experience. generations (born mid-s to early s) and Z (born s — Co-creation — co-creation is defi ned as a ‘business strategy fo- TBD) who saturate the web population globally (Harel, ). The cusing on customer experience and interactive relationships proposed digital strategy will address several opportunities based which allows and encourages a more active involvement from the on the research fi ndings from this paper: customer to create a value rich experience’ (Business Dictionary, • Building a positive online reputation ). Within a tourism context, Berrada () explains that co- • Promoting a safe environment in Dagestan creation allows tourists to ‘do things rather than just undergo the • Improving customer service experience designed by tourism producers and also engage them- • Providing relevant English content to serve tourists selves in activities for self-development, explore multisensory environments, and connect to other people as they are directly The list of country facts (unique selling points) presented above involved in creating and choreographing’. could be used in favor of and around the proposed communication Visitor profi ling and using appropriate channels to attract them — to attract visitors; these include the hospitality of the local popula- needless to say how important this is. Although the data present- tion, the impressive number of historic monuments (), local ed claimed that the average age is –, belonging to the mid- culture and traditions, good climate, variate landscapes, broad sandy dle class cluster, a more detailed profi le should be made. The au- bitches and the most ancient city — Derbent, among other USPs. thors suggest that the three main tourist clusters should be Portraying the active kinds of tourism should be also considered. national (Russians), international (foreign tourists) and also Dagestan’s online presence is somewhat negatively aff ected by neighbouring Arab countries who might be interested in religious the information present on BBC’s website and Wikipedia, warn- tourism, a type of tourism which is underestimated in Dagestan. ing about the lack of safety. In order to establish a better promo- Each type of tourism should have better defi ned customer seg- tion and understanding of the current safe situation in the coun- ments. try, and in order to take control over the information shared on- More research — research is the foundation of wise business line, this paper suggests the creation of a state-owned website decisions, and more of it should be present on the tourism defor tourists in English as well as in the languages spoken by the partment’s agenda. This could either be simply questionnaires majority of the tourists. For this purpose, an important role in administered to visitors, similar to the one presented in this pa- the online communication could be using the story of “Kunats- per, or it could be funding PhDs or case studies; these could fo- kaya” (a room for guests in every home) and “Kunak” (brother), cus on solving the negative perception issues which Dagestan is to emphasize the hospitality of the local population. currently facing. The information could be made available online, in a similar fashion to the one made in Britain (https://www.vis- Dagestan tourist website or blog itbritain.org/-inbound-tourism-forecast). Such information could also help local entrepreneurs and tourism agencies, in or- The Dagestani tourist website should be available in  language s: der to prepare specifi c tourism packages. Russian, English and Chinese, as to cover the major tourist

   I. M, Q  M C I      ception related to the safety of Dagestan available after a Goog- D  le search, the unpleasant aesthetics of the airport, or the impo- lite taxi drivers. As positive touchpoints were the beautiful Digital strategy is of paramount importance in tourism, as it landscapes, the event that the participants attended, the food, has the potential to empower positive word-of-mouth and en- and the hospitality of the people. Each stage shown in the pho- hance the ‘virality’ eff ect of the information online (Vaish, ). to should be empathetically considered for improving the over- It is also crucial for eff ective communication with the millennial all tourist experience. generations (born mid-s to early s) and Z (born s — Co-creation — co-creation is defi ned as a ‘business strategy fo- TBD) who saturate the web population globally (Harel, ). The cusing on customer experience and interactive relationships proposed digital strategy will address several opportunities based which allows and encourages a more active involvement from the on the research fi ndings from this paper: customer to create a value rich experience’ (Business Dictionary, • Building a positive online reputation ). Within a tourism context, Berrada () explains that co- • Promoting a safe environment in Dagestan creation allows tourists to ‘do things rather than just undergo the • Improving customer service experience designed by tourism producers and also engage them- • Providing relevant English content to serve tourists selves in activities for self-development, explore multisensory environments, and connect to other people as they are directly The list of country facts (unique selling points) presented above involved in creating and choreographing’. could be used in favor of and around the proposed communication Visitor profi ling and using appropriate channels to attract them — to attract visitors; these include the hospitality of the local popula- needless to say how important this is. Although the data present- tion, the impressive number of historic monuments (), local ed claimed that the average age is –, belonging to the mid- culture and traditions, good climate, variate landscapes, broad sandy dle class cluster, a more detailed profi le should be made. The au- bitches and the most ancient city — Derbent, among other USPs. thors suggest that the three main tourist clusters should be Portraying the active kinds of tourism should be also considered. national (Russians), international (foreign tourists) and also Dagestan’s online presence is somewhat negatively aff ected by neighbouring Arab countries who might be interested in religious the information present on BBC’s website and Wikipedia, warn- tourism, a type of tourism which is underestimated in Dagestan. ing about the lack of safety. In order to establish a better promo- Each type of tourism should have better defi ned customer seg- tion and understanding of the current safe situation in the coun- ments. try, and in order to take control over the information shared on- More research — research is the foundation of wise business line, this paper suggests the creation of a state-owned website decisions, and more of it should be present on the tourism defor tourists in English as well as in the languages spoken by the partment’s agenda. This could either be simply questionnaires majority of the tourists. For this purpose, an important role in administered to visitors, similar to the one presented in this pa- the online communication could be using the story of “Kunats- per, or it could be funding PhDs or case studies; these could fo- kaya” (a room for guests in every home) and “Kunak” (brother), cus on solving the negative perception issues which Dagestan is to emphasize the hospitality of the local population. currently facing. The information could be made available online, in a similar fashion to the one made in Britain (https://www.vis- Dagestan tourist website or blog itbritain.org/-inbound-tourism-forecast). Such information could also help local entrepreneurs and tourism agencies, in or- The Dagestani tourist website should be available in  language s: der to prepare specifi c tourism packages. Russian, English and Chinese, as to cover the major tourist

   I. M, Q  M C I      groups. It should emphasize the English content also, as it was Social media channels — Instagram channel found that most information shared is in Russian and not many websites are available for English-speaking guests; this is espe- Instagram is considered as a social platform for visual content, cially crucial when it comes to information around tourism and thus becomes relevant to the tourist industry and for the promo- cultural aspects. tion of tourist elements. It is important to note that % of mil- This tourism website would also serve as an online customer lennial travelers globally are active on Instagram and that % of service, which was currently marked as unsatisfactory in the re- the Instagram population use the platform to fi nd new travel des- search fi ndings. Such online service may bring Dagestan’s image tinations to explore (Bayer, ). People on Instagram should be to another level and position the country as digitally developing. motivated to post high quality content, but also engage with oth- The website could also provide information around the tourist er publishers. Considering the fact that by  Millennials will preparation before and during their stay, the history and cultur- take over % of the workforce globally (Harel, ), it makes al aspects of Dagestan, the touristic attractions, and even sports sense to target this audience in a narrower way. Instagram should achievements, something that the Dagestani population takes be regarded both as a platform that might stimulate the promo- pride in. The website could also share more practical information tion of high-quality content from Dagestan and for targeting cer- such as how to order a taxi in Dagestan, common Russian words tain target groups which are alleged to grow and soon dominate to use on your trip, quality tour operators, digital maps for buy- the market. The content on the Dagestan’s tourism Instagram pro- ing souvenirs or making your way around, information about how fi le should be consistent and covering topics around the local cul- to obtain a tourist visa easier, or things to know before interact- ture and hospitality, historical sides, beautiful nature, and others. ing with the locals. Once established and after being carefully maintained, the Potential campaign # — share the Dagestani hospitality website would gain decent visibility and could be positioned on the fi rst results page using most search engines. However, this A potential campaign may ask tourists who have fi rst-hand wit- action might take some time, as for Google to index the website nessed the hospitality of the local population to share their ex- appropriately and for the web administrators to write the content perience on their Instagram profi les. Such content could be or- for the English speakers. Search engine optimization (SEO) with ganised and shared by the account administrators. To leverage relevant keywords for Google and Yandex should be considered. the experience, a prize pool could be funded for those who participate –e.g. on a lottery principle, participants could be provid- Chatbot integration ed with additional souvenirs. This campaign could be promoted both on the tourist website and at the airport via the information In –, Facebook, the largest social media platform, has stand or virtual screens. To emphasize more about the local hos- declared .x YoY growth and over  billion messages were sent pitality, specifi c tags could be used, such as “Kunak”, or “Kunat- by its over   chatbots (Vaish, ). An integrated chatbot skaya.” These should also be supported by more general hashtags, on the tourist website may serve as an online customer service in order to stimulate the virality of the information. assistant, where tourists could pose general questions about tourism in Dagestan. The chatbot could redirect users to the sec- Potential campaign # — photo invitation at key touristic places tions within the website or to any other relevant and /or external sources. Chatbots are seen as growing innovation globally and A simple request for tourists to share their best photos on Insta- may position Dagestan’s tourism in a better light. gram from selected hotspots. Those hotspots could be key tour-

   I. M, Q  M C I      groups. It should emphasize the English content also, as it was Social media channels — Instagram channel found that most information shared is in Russian and not many websites are available for English-speaking guests; this is espe- Instagram is considered as a social platform for visual content, cially crucial when it comes to information around tourism and thus becomes relevant to the tourist industry and for the promo- cultural aspects. tion of tourist elements. It is important to note that % of mil- This tourism website would also serve as an online customer lennial travelers globally are active on Instagram and that % of service, which was currently marked as unsatisfactory in the re- the Instagram population use the platform to fi nd new travel des- search fi ndings. Such online service may bring Dagestan’s image tinations to explore (Bayer, ). People on Instagram should be to another level and position the country as digitally developing. motivated to post high quality content, but also engage with oth- The website could also provide information around the tourist er publishers. Considering the fact that by  Millennials will preparation before and during their stay, the history and cultur- take over % of the workforce globally (Harel, ), it makes al aspects of Dagestan, the touristic attractions, and even sports sense to target this audience in a narrower way. Instagram should achievements, something that the Dagestani population takes be regarded both as a platform that might stimulate the promo- pride in. The website could also share more practical information tion of high-quality content from Dagestan and for targeting cer- such as how to order a taxi in Dagestan, common Russian words tain target groups which are alleged to grow and soon dominate to use on your trip, quality tour operators, digital maps for buy- the market. The content on the Dagestan’s tourism Instagram pro- ing souvenirs or making your way around, information about how fi le should be consistent and covering topics around the local cul- to obtain a tourist visa easier, or things to know before interact- ture and hospitality, historical sides, beautiful nature, and others. ing with the locals. Once established and after being carefully maintained, the Potential campaign # — share the Dagestani hospitality website would gain decent visibility and could be positioned on the fi rst results page using most search engines. However, this A potential campaign may ask tourists who have fi rst-hand wit- action might take some time, as for Google to index the website nessed the hospitality of the local population to share their ex- appropriately and for the web administrators to write the content perience on their Instagram profi les. Such content could be or- for the English speakers. Search engine optimization (SEO) with ganised and shared by the account administrators. To leverage relevant keywords for Google and Yandex should be considered. the experience, a prize pool could be funded for those who participate –e.g. on a lottery principle, participants could be provid- Chatbot integration ed with additional souvenirs. This campaign could be promoted both on the tourist website and at the airport via the information In –, Facebook, the largest social media platform, has stand or virtual screens. To emphasize more about the local hos- declared .x YoY growth and over  billion messages were sent pitality, specifi c tags could be used, such as “Kunak”, or “Kunat- by its over   chatbots (Vaish, ). An integrated chatbot skaya.” These should also be supported by more general hashtags, on the tourist website may serve as an online customer service in order to stimulate the virality of the information. assistant, where tourists could pose general questions about tourism in Dagestan. The chatbot could redirect users to the sec- Potential campaign # — photo invitation at key touristic places tions within the website or to any other relevant and /or external sources. Chatbots are seen as growing innovation globally and A simple request for tourists to share their best photos on Insta- may position Dagestan’s tourism in a better light. gram from selected hotspots. Those hotspots could be key tour-

   I. M, Q  M C I      istic places and be marked with special signs — tables with infor- about certain products or services, in this case about tourism in mation and/or special photo frames. The experience could be Dagestan. Over % of all online consumers are looking for real gamifi ed, so that the more photos from such places the more testimonials on the web before making any buying decisions points users may amass. If the users achieve a certain number of (PMC, ). Similarly, tourists scout for recommendations and points, they could win a special gift — a traditional coin which testimonials from others before planning their trip. Such eff orts they may receive at the airport after showing their uploaded pho- towards advocacy marketing could go in several directions: tos to the dedicated staff . This campaign could also be followed • Uploading real tourist testimonials on the tourist website. by using specifi c country-related hashtags. • Using tourist platforms such as TripAdvisor to raise Dagest- More video contents an’s profi le. • Working with Dagestani celebrities in sports — written and/ Quality video content about Dagestan is currently challenging to or video testimonials. fi nd on the most popular video platform — YouTube. Especially, there should be educational videos about Dagestan to help poten- Contextual online advertising tial tourists plan their trip. Worth mentioning is that embedding a video on a website can increase the conversation rates by % and The ‘Seattle Times’ study found that  percent of all their re- that % of online users are saying that videos have helped them spondents viewed advertising as valuable when the ads were rel- when making purchasing decisions (Unbounce, ). Video con- evant to the page content (Vaish, ). Dagestan’s tourist web- tent is regarded as the most eff ective communication tool, espe- site could be possibly advertised on other travel portals to at- cially in the world of tourism (Vaish, ). Such videos could be tract relevant users. To pilot the project, the contextual produced to unveil the beauty of the Dagestani nature, the interac- advertisement could target Russian websites, in order to better tion with the local people, and also to touch-point critical aspects — understand if such an approach is eff ective and what KPIs the safety levels in Dagestan and things tourists need to know in should be addressed. order to positively change their perception towards Dagestan. L    An event for travel bloggers There are numerous limitations to this investigation. Firstly, the Another positive impact may be arranged with bloggers — e. g., a primary research could have been made on a much larger scale video by Max Listov (Russian blogger) was watched nearly   in order to get a better understanding of the investigated issues. times in which he is clearly stating that Dagestan is not a danger- Secondly, the information found about Dagestan was scarce and ous country for external visitors (Listov, ). Such a meeting with limited. To tackle this, more research should focus on Dagestan impactful bloggers could be organized annually — an event where and its tourism. A good starting point in changing the negative bloggers are invited to travel around the country for free, and in perceptions could be a thorough investigation of other countries return to share their experience online on their channels. which suff ered similar negative perceptions, but have recovered relatively quick (e. g. Armenia). Another shortcoming could be Creating more testimonials that the information provided by various parties might not be thorough enough. Advocacy marketing is crucial today (Harel, ), and it represents a form of communication where the users are speaking

   I. M, Q  M C I      istic places and be marked with special signs — tables with infor- about certain products or services, in this case about tourism in mation and/or special photo frames. The experience could be Dagestan. Over % of all online consumers are looking for real gamifi ed, so that the more photos from such places the more testimonials on the web before making any buying decisions points users may amass. If the users achieve a certain number of (PMC, ). Similarly, tourists scout for recommendations and points, they could win a special gift — a traditional coin which testimonials from others before planning their trip. Such eff orts they may receive at the airport after showing their uploaded pho- towards advocacy marketing could go in several directions: tos to the dedicated staff . This campaign could also be followed • Uploading real tourist testimonials on the tourist website. by using specifi c country-related hashtags. • Using tourist platforms such as TripAdvisor to raise Dagest- More video contents an’s profi le. • Working with Dagestani celebrities in sports — written and/ Quality video content about Dagestan is currently challenging to or video testimonials. fi nd on the most popular video platform — YouTube. Especially, there should be educational videos about Dagestan to help poten- Contextual online advertising tial tourists plan their trip. Worth mentioning is that embedding a video on a website can increase the conversation rates by % and The ‘Seattle Times’ study found that  percent of all their re- that % of online users are saying that videos have helped them spondents viewed advertising as valuable when the ads were rel- when making purchasing decisions (Unbounce, ). Video con- evant to the page content (Vaish, ). Dagestan’s tourist web- tent is regarded as the most eff ective communication tool, espe- site could be possibly advertised on other travel portals to at- cially in the world of tourism (Vaish, ). Such videos could be tract relevant users. To pilot the project, the contextual produced to unveil the beauty of the Dagestani nature, the interac- advertisement could target Russian websites, in order to better tion with the local people, and also to touch-point critical aspects — understand if such an approach is eff ective and what KPIs the safety levels in Dagestan and things tourists need to know in should be addressed. order to positively change their perception towards Dagestan. L    An event for travel bloggers There are numerous limitations to this investigation. Firstly, the Another positive impact may be arranged with bloggers — e. g., a primary research could have been made on a much larger scale video by Max Listov (Russian blogger) was watched nearly   in order to get a better understanding of the investigated issues. times in which he is clearly stating that Dagestan is not a danger- Secondly, the information found about Dagestan was scarce and ous country for external visitors (Listov, ). Such a meeting with limited. To tackle this, more research should focus on Dagestan impactful bloggers could be organized annually — an event where and its tourism. A good starting point in changing the negative bloggers are invited to travel around the country for free, and in perceptions could be a thorough investigation of other countries return to share their experience online on their channels. which suff ered similar negative perceptions, but have recovered relatively quick (e. g. Armenia). Another shortcoming could be Creating more testimonials that the information provided by various parties might not be thorough enough. Advocacy marketing is crucial today (Harel, ), and it represents a form of communication where the users are speaking

   I. M, Q  M C I     

C many thanks to the inspiring chefs who contributed with their recommendations: Domenico Maggi, Carol James, Alan and Mar- With great tourism potential in the categories of ecotourism, beach, ilyn Payen, Iztok and Irena Legat, Uwe and Annette Michel, George medical, ethno-cultural, sport and extreme-sports, gastronomic, Kostic, Draghitsa Lukin, Maria Shramko, Michel Lenz, David and religious, mountain, and cultural heritage tourism, Dagestan lots Oksana Israfi lov, Kumsiyat Mirzayeva, and Adriyana Alachi. to off er. Its potential should be maximised to a better extent. Al- though there are numerous strategies planned for the periods of B – and –, our primary fi ndings should also be taken into consideration. As main frustrations, the respondents . Akhmedova, R. () The unwritten law of hospitality in Dagest- suggested that non-squat type lavatories should be present in pub- an as the core of artistic synthesis and spiritual unity of diff erent lic places, there should be more English speaking staff and more peoples. Makhachkala: Unpublished Thesis. English signage, the airport and overall infrastructure need aes- . Andreyanova, S. and Ivolga, A. ()‘The tourism potential of thetic improvements, and more focus should go towards improv- the North Caucasus: the formation, characteristics and devel- ing the customer service and staff training. As recommendations, opment prospects’, GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites. (), pp. the respondents suggested more online and social media visibili- –. DOI .. ty, more investment in staff training and customer service, design . Bayer, J. () Instagram for Tourism Marketing: How to Boost of tourist packages with specifi c off ers for the various types of Likes, Views and Visitors in  [report] [online]. Available at: tourism, and a better allocation of resources to suit tourists’ needs. https://www.convinceandconvert.com/research/instagram- Further to these, the authors suggest that more attention tourism-marketing/ (Accessed on:  April ). should be attributed towards empathising with the target mar- . Berrada, M. ()‘Co-Creation of the Tourist Experience via In- kets through touchpoint mapping and co-creation, market seg- ternet: Towards Exploring a New Practice’, Journal of Interna- mentation should be more comprehensive for every tourism type, tional Business Research and Marketing. (), pp. –. DOI: and more research should act consultative in making future de- ./jibrm.–.... URL: http://dx.doi. velopment decisions. Lastly, the digital strategy section recom- org/./jibrm.–.... mended the creation of an offi cial tourist website or blog and so- . Business Dictionary () Co-creation. [online]. Available at: cial media (Instagram) accounts with chatbot integration and http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/co-creation. video content to enhance the emotional branding of Dagestan, as html (Accessed on:  April ). well as contextual online advertising, and visitor testimonials. . Dzhamaludinova, N. М. ()‘Organisational and economic aspects of Seaside-Mountain type of tourism development in the A Republic of Dagestan’, Strategy of sustainable regional develop- The authors would like to show their sincere gratitude to a num- ment in Russia. , –. ber of people who made this research possible. Firstly, to Dr . Gardner, J. () Why Contextual Advertising Just Makes Sense. Makhach Vagabov for organising the  nd International Culinary [online]. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com/why- Championship, part of the ‘Visit Dagestan’ project. Many thanks contextual-advertising-just-makes-sense-– (Accessed on: to Vitaly Demchenko for providing relevant information needed  April ). for this paper and to Leonid Gelibterman and Nikolay Baratov for . Harel, T. () How Do Customer Testimonials Infl uence Pur- sharing their passion for gastronomy and tourism. Nonetheless, chasing Decisions? [online]. Available at: https://www.spectoos.

   I. M, Q  M C I     

   I. M, Q  M C com/how-do-customer-testimonials-infl uence-purchasing-de- An empirical study of water cisions/ (Accessed on:  April ). . Kurbanova, M. () Битва шефов (Battle Chefs). [online] pollution in the regions Available at: http://dagpravda.ru/obshestvo/bitva-shefov/ (Ac- of the Russian Federation cessed on  April ). . Kurskiev, Т. G. ()‘Potential of sustainable tourism development in the Republic of North Ossetia’, (). . Listov, M. () The Unknown Dagestan. Goor / Gunib / Khun- zakh village. Stereotypes about Caucasus. [online]. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hicmwegbw&t=s (Ac- K B, V S, cessed on:  April ). S V . Magomedbekov, G. U., Gadzhiev, M. D., Gadzhiev, E. E. and Vag- Students abov, M.M. ()‘Preconditions for the Development of Wine- Russian Presidential Academy of National Tasting Tourism in Dagestan’, Ponte Academic Journal, (). Economy and Public Administration DOI: ./j.ponte.... Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Matveeva, A. and Savin, I. ()‘North Caucasus: views from within’, People’s Perspectives on Peace and Security. Pp. –. S O Saferworld, London, United Kingdom. Associate Professor . PMC () Millennials at work Reshaping the workplace. [on- Russian Presidential Academy of National line]. Available at: https://www.pwc.com/co/es/publicaciones/ Economy and Public Administration assets/millennials-at-work.pdf (Accessed on:  April ). Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Saunders, M., Lewis P. and Thornhill, A. () Research meth- A ods for business students. th edn. Harlow: Prentice Hall. . Unbounce () The Benefi ts of Using Video on Landing Pag- The paper analyzes the factors aff ecting water pol- es [online]. Available at: https://unbounce.com/landing-page- lution in the regions of the Russian Federation. articles/the-benefi ts-of-using-video-on-landing-pages/ (Ac- On the ground of the collected statistics, the cessed on:  April ). most signifi cant independent variables that have a . Vaish, A. () Five Reasons Why Chatbots are the Future of considerable impact on the experimental variable Customer Service. [online]. Available at: https://www.entrepre- were selected by using the correlation analysis. neur.com/article/ (Accessed on:  April ). Water contamination level and spillover of pol- . Wikipedia () Dagestan. [online]. Available at: https:// luted effl uents were taken as dependent variables. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan (Accessed on:  April ). Two regression models were developed: exponential . Yampolskaya, D. Yu. and Ivanov, S. А. ()‘National identity and linear ones. Sensitivity estimation of the inves- of the peoples of the North Caucasus: issues and prospects’, tigated factors was presented. Time series of the Modern science: relevant problems and way of solution.  (), factors were constructed, seasonality was examined, pp. –. the relationships between two time series were analyzed.

   I. M, Q  M C com/how-do-customer-testimonials-infl uence-purchasing-de- An empirical study of water cisions/ (Accessed on:  April ). . Kurbanova, M. () Битва шефов (Battle Chefs). [online] pollution in the regions Available at: http://dagpravda.ru/obshestvo/bitva-shefov/ (Ac- of the Russian Federation cessed on  April ). . Kurskiev, Т. G. ()‘Potential of sustainable tourism development in the Republic of North Ossetia’, (). . Listov, M. () The Unknown Dagestan. Goor / Gunib / Khun- zakh village. Stereotypes about Caucasus. [online]. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hicmwegbw&t=s (Ac- K B, V S, cessed on:  April ). S V . Magomedbekov, G. U., Gadzhiev, M. D., Gadzhiev, E. E. and Vag- Students abov, M.M. ()‘Preconditions for the Development of Wine- Russian Presidential Academy of National Tasting Tourism in Dagestan’, Ponte Academic Journal, (). Economy and Public Administration DOI: ./j.ponte.... Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Matveeva, A. and Savin, I. ()‘North Caucasus: views from within’, People’s Perspectives on Peace and Security. Pp. –. S O Saferworld, London, United Kingdom. Associate Professor . PMC () Millennials at work Reshaping the workplace. [on- Russian Presidential Academy of National line]. Available at: https://www.pwc.com/co/es/publicaciones/ Economy and Public Administration assets/millennials-at-work.pdf (Accessed on:  April ). Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences . Saunders, M., Lewis P. and Thornhill, A. () Research meth- A ods for business students. th edn. Harlow: Prentice Hall. . Unbounce () The Benefi ts of Using Video on Landing Pag- The paper analyzes the factors aff ecting water pol- es [online]. Available at: https://unbounce.com/landing-page- lution in the regions of the Russian Federation. articles/the-benefi ts-of-using-video-on-landing-pages/ (Ac- On the ground of the collected statistics, the cessed on:  April ). most signifi cant independent variables that have a . Vaish, A. () Five Reasons Why Chatbots are the Future of considerable impact on the experimental variable Customer Service. [online]. Available at: https://www.entrepre- were selected by using the correlation analysis. neur.com/article/ (Accessed on:  April ). Water contamination level and spillover of pol- . Wikipedia () Dagestan. [online]. Available at: https:// luted effl uents were taken as dependent variables. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagestan (Accessed on:  April ). Two regression models were developed: exponential . Yampolskaya, D. Yu. and Ivanov, S. А. ()‘National identity and linear ones. Sensitivity estimation of the inves- of the peoples of the North Caucasus: issues and prospects’, tigated factors was presented. Time series of the Modern science: relevant problems and way of solution.  (), factors were constructed, seasonality was examined, pp. –. the relationships between two time series were analyzed.

   I. M, Q  M C A        

On the assumption of the models the actions aimed at improv- Y — Water contamination ing water quality by infl uencing these factors were off ered. level (cub. meter) Keywords: Correlation regression analysis, Exponential mod- Y — Water contamination level (cub. meter)  el, Linear model, Time series, Seasonality, Ecology, Pollution Х — Spillover of polluted effl uents (mln. cub. m) , X — Quantity of factories , I X — Population (country borough ) , X — Average income (per month; rub.) , The problem of water pollution in the regions of the Russian Fed- X — Withdrawal of water from bodies of water ,  (mln. cub. m) eration was considered in diff erent spheres , in particular, ac- X — Purifi cation plants (mln. cub. m/day) , cording to The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Envi- X — Stream runoff (cub. kilometer/year) -, ronmental Monitoring of Russia (Roshydromet), in  special- X — Investment in water conservation , ists registered  pollution episodes in the reservoir of the (thousand rub.) country . X — Length of inner accessible waterway (km) -, Water pollution is one of the most signifi cant environmental X — Oil export (thousand ton) , problems nowadays. Therefore, revealing factors having the X — Industrial production index (% of the , greatest impact on water contamination level facilitates the fi nd- previous year) ing of pollution control measures. Subject to these independent variables, the linear model was developed. R Y = . + .X + .X – .X + .X Water contamination level (cub. meter) was taken as the depen- The received determination coeffi cient, equaled ., revealed dent variable, as for independent variables, they are the spill- that only in .% of cases the alteration of the experimental var- over of polluted effl uents (mln. cub. m), the number of factories, iable is connected with the change in independent variables. Thus, the population (country borough ), average income (per it is not the linear dependence but diff erent from it. month; rub.), withdrawal of water from bodies of water (mln. cub. m), purifi cation plants (mln. cub. m/day), stream runoff SUMMARY OUTPUT (cub. kilometer/year), investment in water conservation (thou- Regression Statistics sand rub.), the length of inner accessible waterway (km), oil ex- Multiple R , port (thousand ton), and industrial production index (% of the R square , previous year). Adjusted R square , As it was found from the correlation matrix, the most conse- Standard Error , quential factors are the spillover of polluted effl uents, the num- Observations  ber of factories, purifi cation plants, and industrial production in- Hence, other types of dependences were examined. It was dex. found that the exponential model refl ects the situation in the  Not only in chemistry, biology and other sciences, but also in social and eco- most appropriate way. To eliminate the least infl uencing factors nomic frameworks. the following were studied: the spillover of polluted effl uents, the  ROSHYDROMED () The overlook of water condition and pollution in Russian quantity of factories, industrial production index, average in- Federation in .

   I. M, Q  M C A        

   I. M, Q  M C A         come, withdrawal of water from bodies of water, the population, Low determination coeffi cient prompt further research in the investment in water conservation, and stream runoff . fi eld of water pollution. The level of water contamination was the Basing on the new correlation matrix, it was decided to ex- original dependent variable; however, during the analysis spillo- clude only one factor, which is the industrial production index. ver of polluted effl uents was found to be more appropriate for the The exponential model was based on the left seven factors. model. Thus, the coeffi cients showed that the spillover of polluted effl u- For the new experimental variable factors having more infl u- ents, the number of factories, the population, and withdrawal of ence were selected by using the correlation matrix. They are the water from bodies of water are in the positive correlation with population, stream runoff , and withdrawal of water from bodies water contamination level, meaning that the higher are these in- of water. dicators, the greater is the dependent variable. On the contrary, Y — Spillover of polluted industrial production index, average income, investment in wa- effl uents (mln. cub. m) ter conservation, and stream runoff are in the negative relation- Y — Spillover of polluted effl uents (mln. cub. m)  ship: the increase in those factors means the result will decrease. X — Quantity of factories , X — Population (country borough ) , 0.22 0.31 0.61 -0.29 0.15 -0.24 -0.16 Y = 0.145X1234 X X X X 57 X X 8 X — Average income (per month; rub.) , The new determination coeffi cient equals ., meaning that X — Withdrawal of water from bodies of water , in .% of cases the modifi cation of the dependent variable is (mln. cub. m) X — Stream runoff (cub. kilometer/year) , linked with the variation of independent variables. The coeffi - X — Investment in water conservation , cient is low due to the number of factors which are not connect- (thousand rub.)водных ресурсов (тыс. руб) ed with the independent variables. X — Industrial production index (% of the -, previous year) SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics On this evidence, the regression model was comprised. The re- Multiple R , sult was considerably diff erent from the previous ones. The de- R square , termination coeffi cient was ., meaning that in % of cases Adjusted R square , the change in the spillover of polluted effl uents is based on the Standard Error , permutation of the chosen independent variables. Consequently, Observations  this model is more trustworthy, refl ecting the situation in the Sensitivity estimation of the investigated factors approved country. that the most momentous factors are X , X , and X .    Y = –. + .X + .X + .X % increase/decrease of each Changing Y SUMMARY OUTPUT vatiable (other factors being equal) Regression Statistics X+% .% Multiple R , X+% % R square , X+% -.% Adjusted R square , X–% -.% Standard Error , X–% -.% Observations  X–% .%

   I. M, Q  M C A         come, withdrawal of water from bodies of water, the population, Low determination coeffi cient prompt further research in the investment in water conservation, and stream runoff . fi eld of water pollution. The level of water contamination was the Basing on the new correlation matrix, it was decided to ex- original dependent variable; however, during the analysis spillo- clude only one factor, which is the industrial production index. ver of polluted effl uents was found to be more appropriate for the The exponential model was based on the left seven factors. model. Thus, the coeffi cients showed that the spillover of polluted effl u- For the new experimental variable factors having more infl u- ents, the number of factories, the population, and withdrawal of ence were selected by using the correlation matrix. They are the water from bodies of water are in the positive correlation with population, stream runoff , and withdrawal of water from bodies water contamination level, meaning that the higher are these in- of water. dicators, the greater is the dependent variable. On the contrary, Y — Spillover of polluted industrial production index, average income, investment in wa- effl uents (mln. cub. m) ter conservation, and stream runoff are in the negative relation- Y — Spillover of polluted effl uents (mln. cub. m)  ship: the increase in those factors means the result will decrease. X — Quantity of factories , X — Population (country borough ) , 0.22 0.31 0.61 -0.29 0.15 -0.24 -0.16 Y = 0.145X1234 X X X X 57 X X 8 X — Average income (per month; rub.) , The new determination coeffi cient equals ., meaning that X — Withdrawal of water from bodies of water , in .% of cases the modifi cation of the dependent variable is (mln. cub. m) X — Stream runoff (cub. kilometer/year) , linked with the variation of independent variables. The coeffi - X — Investment in water conservation , cient is low due to the number of factors which are not connect- (thousand rub.)водных ресурсов (тыс. руб) ed with the independent variables. X — Industrial production index (% of the -, previous year) SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics On this evidence, the regression model was comprised. The re- Multiple R , sult was considerably diff erent from the previous ones. The de- R square , termination coeffi cient was ., meaning that in % of cases Adjusted R square , the change in the spillover of polluted effl uents is based on the Standard Error , permutation of the chosen independent variables. Consequently, Observations  this model is more trustworthy, refl ecting the situation in the Sensitivity estimation of the investigated factors approved country. that the most momentous factors are X , X , and X .    Y = –. + .X + .X + .X % increase/decrease of each Changing Y SUMMARY OUTPUT vatiable (other factors being equal) Regression Statistics X+% .% Multiple R , X+% % R square , X+% -.% Adjusted R square , X–% -.% Standard Error , X–% -.% Observations  X–% .%

   I. M, Q  M C A        

Furthermore, F-test is higher than critical (confi dence level SUMMARY OUTPUT equals .), signifying that the model describes the reality bet- Regression Statistics ter than average. Multiple R , R square , ANOVA Adjusted R square , df SS MS F Signifi cance F Standard Error , Regression    , , Observations  Residual   , Total   Subsequently, a model without a time element was developed. Almost in % of cases, an enteric fever is caused by contaminat- For more precise further research the standardized regression ed water. equation, making possible to compare the regression coeffi cients, The percentage is quite low. However, other causes of enteric was deducted. infection, such as hygiene breaches, low-quality products, must be taken into account. t = .t + .t + .t Obviously, the population (.) has the greatest infl uence on Y = .X +  the dependent variable; the next is the withdrawal of water from The considerable reduction of water quality in Russian Feder- bodies of water (.). Thereafter, the spillover of polluted effl u- ation regions was detected. ents can be explained by those two factors. The biggest part of independent variables, taken for analysis While examining the coeffi cient signifi cance it was revealed and model construction are interrelated: the larger is population, that X (the population) and X (withdrawal of water from bodies the higher is water consumption as well as the number of facto- of water) are more reliable and signifi cant than X (stream run- ries required. Consequently, the spillover of polluted effl uents off ). Thereby the two major factors were exposed for this model, and withdrawal of water from bodies of water drastically increase. which is proven by the standardized regression equation. Recommended measures, contributing to the ecological situa- Hereafter the correlation between the spillover of polluted ef- tion improvement: fl uents, taken as an independent variable, and the number of people caught an enteric infection as the experimental variable . The upbringing of the respect among population towards was explored. The statistics were taken from  to  for the water resources, which can be developed through imple- Central Federal District. menting additional material to school geography course However, there is a risk of seasonal infl uence. Additive and or establishing a new course “Ecology”. (Thus, there will multiplicative model were developed in order to identify and be a formation of conscious generation, possessing basic eliminate it. They showed the absence of any trend, therefore knowledge about current problems and (required) ecolog- there is no seasonality. ical behaviour). For the estimation of the correlation between factors it was . Installation of new treatment facilities as well as renova- decided to add time to the model. The analysis of the correlation tion and regular control of existing ones. This measure is of and regression model revealed that time is a nonfactor, which is extremal importance as nowadays there are a few treatment confi rmed by the standardized determination coeffi cient that facilities all over the country, moreover, they mostly idle or vastly diff ers from the determination coeffi cient. do not function in a proper way. As a result, the wastewater is not treated as the norms require, hence, remains dirty.

   I. M, Q  M C A        

   I. M, Q  M C . Reuse of treated wastewater. This facilitates the consider- Research on the incidence rate able saving of water resources and money, both government and ﬁ rm. However, this measure cannot be accom- in regions plished without the previous one, as it is based on quality of the Russian Federation wastewater treatment.

B

. gks.ru — Federal State Statistics Service . mnr.gov.ru — offi cial site of Ministry of Natural Resources and N N Environment of the Russian Federation Student . Myzin A. L., Kalina A. V., Kozytsin A. A., Pykhov P. A. () Russian Presidential Academy of National State and dynamics of changes in the level of regional energy Economy and Public Administration security. Regional economics. [online]. Available at: https://cy- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences berleninka.ru/article/n/sostoyanie-i-dinamika-izmeneniya- urovnya-regionalnoy-energeticheskoy-bezopasnosti [Accessed S O on:  February ] Associate Professor . productcenter.ru — site, providing statistics about Russian in- Russian Presidential Academy of National dustrial production Economy and Public Administration . ROSHYDROMED () The overlook of water condition and pol- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences lution in Russian Federation in . [online]. Available at: http:// A www.meteorf.ru/special/product/infomaterials// [Accessed on:  February ] This article investigates the incidence rate on a . russia.duck.consulting — Russian Statistics Service number of socio-economic factors in the regions of the Russian Federation using correlation and re- . Salyglar, S. A., Maximova, S. G., and Molodikova, I. N. (). En- gression analysis. Linear and exponential models vironmental Security And Migration Challenges: A Sociological of the incidence rate are obtained. The inﬂ uence of Analysis Of The Situation In Russian Regions. Society and Security each individual factor on the outcome was found. Insights. [online]. Available at: http://journal.asu.ru/ssi/article/ For the most signiﬁ cant factor, the law of distribu- view/ [Accessed on:  February ] tion of probability values is constructed. The anal- . Shebzukhova T. A., Vartumyan A. A., Shtapova I. S., Medyan- ysis of the received law is given. Recommendations ik N. V., Zhukovskaya N. P. () Current state and problems of on the response of the performance factor from the development of the water management in the South of Russia. variation of factors included in the model are given. South of Russia: ecology, development. Available at: https://cy- Key words: incidence rate, social and economic berleninka.ru/article/v/sovremennoe-sostoyanie-i-problemy- factors, regression analysis of correlation, linear razvitiya-vodohozyaystvennoy-sfery-v-regionah-yuga-rossii model, exponential model [Accessed on:  February ]

   I. M, Q  M C . Reuse of treated wastewater. This facilitates the consider- Research on the incidence rate able saving of water resources and money, both government and ﬁ rm. However, this measure cannot be accom- in regions plished without the previous one, as it is based on quality of the Russian Federation wastewater treatment.

B

   I. M, Q  M C R         R F

I • The number of patients who are studying at medical institutions with a diagnosis of alcoholism and alcoholic psychosis; People health directly aff ects the country’s economy. The deteri- • The number of crimes committed by persons in a state of oration of health reduces the working capacity of the population, intoxication; sold alcohol products; which negatively aff ects productivity. This, in turn, restrains eco- • The number of off enses related to the illegal production nomic growth as well as welfare growth of the population. There- and traffi cking of ethyl alcohol and alcohol products; fore, the investigation of factors and trends of the incidence rate • The number of hours to ban the sale of alcohol daily and is one of the most crucial current research directions. the number of days the ban on the sale of alcohol. The incidence rate analysis is necessary for making management decisions at both the federal and regional levels. On its ba- Then a matrix of paired correlation coeffi cients was constructed, sis, it is possible to properly plan and forecast the development characterizing the closeness of their relationship. of a network of health facilities. Table  The number Х X X X X X X X X R of registered patients (Y) Х , , Data was collected for  subjects of the Russian Federation X , , , (Nenetsky Autonomous Area, Khanty-Mansisky Autonomous X -, -, -, , Area and Yamalo-Nenetsky Autonomous Area are included in the X , , , , , regions) and subsequently  of the most signiﬁ cant factors af- X , , , -, , , fecting the incidence rate were selected: X -, -, -, -, -, , , X -, -, -, -, , , , ,

• X. The amount of pollutants from stationary sources of X -, , -, -, -, , , , , pollution (thousand tons / km); X -, -, -, , , -, , -, , , • X . The amount of pollutants from vehicles (thousand tons /  From the data provided above, it follows that such factors as km); the subsistence minimum for the pensioner (X ) and the sobrie- • X . The number of visits to medical institutions for the year   ty score (X ) have a very weak correlation with the resultant in- in  shift;  dicator. In addition, indicators of the number of enterprises, fac- • X . The number of enterprises, factories, factories in the re-  tories and plants (X ); the size of the average salary in the region gion;  (X ) and the average age of the population (X ) have a much • X . The value of the average salary in the region;    greater connection with other factors, and create multicollinear- • X. The size of a living wage of the pensioner; • X . The number of doctors; ity. Therefore, for a more objective assessment of the model, the  above factors have been removed. • X. Score sobriety *;

• X. The average age of the population. The number of registered Х X X X patients (Y) * The total score for each region was calculated by summing up Х , , the places occupied by this region for each of the six basic criteria: X , , , X -, -, -, , • The number of deaths by main classes and individual causes X -, -, -, -, , of death is alcohol poisoning;

   I. M, Q  M C R         R F

The linear model Regression statistics Coeffi cients Multiple R , Y-intersection , R-square , Х , Adjusted R-square , X , Standard error , X -, Observations  X -, Coeffi cients Y-intersection , • X — the amount of pollutants from stationary sources of  T , pollution (thousand tons / km); T , • X — the amount of pollutants from vehicles (thousand T -,  tons / km ); T -, • X — the number of visits to medical institutions for the  Y = .T + .T – .T – .T year in  shift;    

• X — the size of a living wage of the pensioner; Since standardized regression coeffi cients can be compared Y = .X + .X – .X – .X + . with each other, it can be said that the number of pollutants from     vehicles has the greatest inﬂ uence on the incidence rate, since It follows from this model that if X changes (the amount of  this coeffi cient signiﬁ cantly exceeds the values of standardized pollutants from stationary sources of pollution) by  unit, the re- coeffi cients for other factors. sultant indicator Y (incidence rate) will change to — . units. For the construction of an exponential model, it was necessary When X changes (the amount of pollutants from motor vehicles),  to take logarithm of each value. the incidence rate will change by . units; a change in X  Using the values in the “Coeffi cients” column, an exponential (the number of visits to medical institutions for the year in multiple regression equation is constructed:  shift) will lead to a change in Y to ,. also when changing Coeffi cients X (number of doctors) — by ,. units. Based on the value of R (coeffi cient of determination), it can Y-intersection , lnX , be argued that in .% of cases, the change in the resultant in-  lnX , dicator (incidence rate) is due to the variation of the factors pre-  lnX , sented in the equation.  lnX  -, Regression statistics The exponential model is: Multiple R ,

R-square , 0.035 0.843 0.064 -0.009 -0.08 Y = X1246 X X X X 7 20651.16 Standardized , R-square Normal mistake , Also, in order to trace the inﬂ uence of each individual factor Observations  on the resultant indicator, each one was increased and reduced by %. The results of the analysis are shown in the table: Then standardized coeffi cients were calculated.

   I. M, Q  M C R         R F

% increase/decrease of each variable, Change of Y 0,005 other conditions being equal X 0,004 +% ,% X +% ,% 0,003 X +% ,% X +% -,% 0,002 X +% -,% X 0,001 –% -,% X –% -,% 0 X –% -,% 4,6;113,6 113,66;222,73 222,73;331,8 331,8;549,93 549,93;986,2 X –% ,% X –% ,% Exponential distribution law Based on the data, the resultant indicator is most sensitive to = , P W Pearson criterion factor X (the amount of pollutants from vehicles). ,  , , , Thus, according to the results of the investigation, it can be , , , , , concluded that air pollution takes the fi rst place among the fac- , , , , , tors aff ecting the incidence rate, since air is a product of contin- , , , , , uous consumption of the organism. , , , , , As a result of an increase in CO (carbon oxide) in the atmos- , ,  pheric air, the process of destruction of the Earth’s ozone screen , is intensively developing, acid rain is falling, causing damage to all living things, fertility of lands decreases, water is poisoned, and Distribution function deforestation occurs. At least –% of human diseases, according to Russian scientists, are also associated with air pollution. 0, x 0 Fx() ® 0.006 x Consequently, during the investigation, randomly selected ¯1,tex 0 data on the amount of pollutants from vehicles (in thousands of tons) in the regions of Russia in  was collected. A hypothe- It should be noted that by the number of registered patients sis was put forward on the exponential distribution of the amount with a diagnosis established for the fi rst time in their lives, the of substances. leading position is occupied by Moscow. Then there is St. Peters- Then the histogram was constructed. Testing the hypothesis burg, Moscow Region, Krasnodar Area and Rostov Region. was carried out according to the criterion of Pearson’s agreement. C Exponential histogram Today, the environmental damage of motor vehicles is huge and The hypothesis of the exponential distribution law was con- manifests itself directly in many phenomena: pollution of the fi rmed. The observed  value (.) does not exceed the critical soil, water, atmosphere, motor vehicles creates noise and energy  value (.), which gives grounds to assert that the assump- pollution. All this leads to a signifi cant deterioration in health tion is correct. and a reduction in the life of the population.

   I. M, Q  M C R         R F

   I. M, Q  M C In this regard, the main ways to reduce environmental dam- The problem age from transport will be highlighted in the following: of deforestation in Russia • Optimization of urban traffi c. • Development of alternative energy sources; • Afterburning and cleaning of organic fuel; • Creation (modiﬁ cation) of engines using alternative fuels; • Protection against noise.

B

. The site of the Federal Service of State Statistics http://www. gks.ru/ E V, . Ovsyannikova S. N., Econometrics / Textbook for students of V L the second course of economic specialties. — Moscow: Delo, Students  Russian Presidential Academy of National . Eﬁ menko S. A., Morozov P. N. Historical and sociological analy- Economy and Public Administration sis of publications on medical and sociological research in pub- Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences lic health // Sociology of Medicine. —  . Cummings P., Analysis of Incidence Rates — CRC Press,  S O Associate Professor . Skvortsova V. I., Decrease in morbidity, mortality and disability due to stroke in the Russian Federation — M .: Litterra,  Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration . Zhidkova O. Medical statistics —  Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences A

In this article the problem of deforestation in Rus- sian Federation is initiated. In the research, in terms of statistic data of the logging volume / quantity of forests, the probability distribution law of the resulting values over all Russian regions was constructed. The analysis of the constructed laws allows to formulate the problem, which solution is based on identifying the most signiﬁ cant factors. A multifactor and non-linear model was built up. Moreover, the sensitivity of the resulting value to the variation of factors included in the model was

   I. M, Q  M C In this regard, the main ways to reduce environmental dam- The problem age from transport will be highlighted in the following: of deforestation in Russia • Optimization of urban traffi c. • Development of alternative energy sources; • Afterburning and cleaning of organic fuel; • Creation (modiﬁ cation) of engines using alternative fuels; • Protection against noise.

B

   I. M, Q  M C T     R shown. The dynamics of the development of the analyzed trait Then factors which correlate with the response variable less was investigated and the existence of seasonality was revealed. than . were leaved out. Moreover, the factors were checked for The constructed model detected a social problem connected with multicollinearity and those ones that duplicate each other were the lack of accounting the number of inhabitants in the regions excluded. As a result,  factors were selected. during deforestation and that infl uences people’s health nega- Table . The fi nal correlation matrix tively. The signifi cant factors that simulate response variable was У Х Х Х Х infl uenced only by economics and fi nancial indicators. У (logging volume)  Key words: deforestation, air pollution, non-linear model, sig- Х (woodiness) ,  nifi cant factors. Х (agricultural , -,  manufactories) R Х (reforestation work) , , ,  Х (air pollution emission) , , , ,  The logging volume and quantity of forests statistic data over Russia was collected and the probability distribution law was To determine the degree of infl uence of independent variables constructed. It appeared to be normal. It means that there is an on dependent variables, the next step of the research was regres- average value around which the rest of the data is distributed sion analysis. within the limits of  sigma. Consequently, the average value can Table . Regression analysis be taken in the further stages of the research. Regression statistics The objective to fi nd out factors that infl uence the amount of Multiple R , deforestation in Russia most of all was set.  factors were select- R-squared , ed for the analysis. They acquire economic, social and ecological Scaled R-squared , spheres in order to reach an accurate outcome. Based on these criteria the following factors were chosen. In terms of the table below, a conclusion that the model, that was built, is working. That can be claimed because of the high R- ) • Y- logging volume (million m square. It means that in % of cases the variability of the re- • X - total stock of wood (million m)  sponse variable depends on the variability of factors. The wor- • X - woodiness (%)  king model is: • X- agricultural manufactories y= –,(X )+,X +,Х +,(X /)- • X- the weather in January     • X - the weather in July  The model was checked for sensibility. On change the factors • X - population (thousands)  by % response variable changes diff erently. While altering per- • X - unemployed people (%)  centage area under forest, the amount of logging varies by %. • X - labor force aged – (thousands of people)  Also, on change air pollution factor, the amount of logging fl uc- • X - reforestation work (thousands of hectares)  tuates around %. When quantity of agricultural manufactures • X - area of forest land covered by forests (thousands of hec-  and reforestation work is changed by  unit, the response varia- tares) ble changes by , and ,. The reforestation work is the • X - investments in agriculture  most signifi cant factor. At the same time, agricultural manufac- • X - producer Price Index of Agricultural Products  tures make the model less sensitive. • X- air pollution emission (thousand tons)

   I. M, Q  M C T     R shown. The dynamics of the development of the analyzed trait Then factors which correlate with the response variable less was investigated and the existence of seasonality was revealed. than . were leaved out. Moreover, the factors were checked for The constructed model detected a social problem connected with multicollinearity and those ones that duplicate each other were the lack of accounting the number of inhabitants in the regions excluded. As a result,  factors were selected. during deforestation and that infl uences people’s health nega- Table . The fi nal correlation matrix tively. The signifi cant factors that simulate response variable was У Х Х Х Х infl uenced only by economics and fi nancial indicators. У (logging volume)  Key words: deforestation, air pollution, non-linear model, sig- Х (woodiness) ,  nifi cant factors. Х (agricultural , -,  manufactories) R Х (reforestation work) , , ,  Х (air pollution emission) , , , ,  The logging volume and quantity of forests statistic data over Russia was collected and the probability distribution law was To determine the degree of infl uence of independent variables constructed. It appeared to be normal. It means that there is an on dependent variables, the next step of the research was regres- average value around which the rest of the data is distributed sion analysis. within the limits of  sigma. Consequently, the average value can Table . Regression analysis be taken in the further stages of the research. Regression statistics The objective to fi nd out factors that infl uence the amount of Multiple R , deforestation in Russia most of all was set.  factors were select- R-squared , ed for the analysis. They acquire economic, social and ecological Scaled R-squared , spheres in order to reach an accurate outcome. Based on these criteria the following factors were chosen. In terms of the table below, a conclusion that the model, that was built, is working. That can be claimed because of the high R- ) • Y- logging volume (million m square. It means that in % of cases the variability of the re- • X - total stock of wood (million m)  sponse variable depends on the variability of factors. The wor- • X - woodiness (%)  king model is: • X- agricultural manufactories y= –,(X )+,X +,Х +,(X /)- • X- the weather in January     • X - the weather in July  The model was checked for sensibility. On change the factors • X - population (thousands)  by % response variable changes diff erently. While altering per- • X - unemployed people (%)  centage area under forest, the amount of logging varies by %. • X - labor force aged – (thousands of people)  Also, on change air pollution factor, the amount of logging fl uc- • X - reforestation work (thousands of hectares)  tuates around %. When quantity of agricultural manufactures • X - area of forest land covered by forests (thousands of hec-  and reforestation work is changed by  unit, the response varia- tares) ble changes by , and ,. The reforestation work is the • X - investments in agriculture  most signifi cant factor. At the same time, agricultural manufac- • X - producer Price Index of Agricultural Products  tures make the model less sensitive. • X- air pollution emission (thousand tons)

   I. M, Q  M C T     R

While forming a regression equation low correlation between ΔУ1 (GDP per capita) population and amount of logging was noticed. The relationship 120000 100000 y = -0,0026x + 85156 between the volume of logging, the stand of timber and popula- 80000 R² = 0,5232 tion was checked. The amount of population does little for 60000 40000 growth of deforestation. 20000 Table  0 -20000 УХХ -40000 У -10000000 0 10000000 20000000 30000000

Х ,  15 Δy = 0,0004Δx + 2,0646 Х , ,  ΔУ2 (People with respiratory R² = 0,7501 diseases) 10 Furthermore, the regression statistics and the linear model shows that with the increase in population by  person the 5 amount of logging grows by  units. Consequently, the amount 0 of deforestation is higher in region with greater population. So, the serious ecological problem appears. -5 -10000000 0 10000000 20000000 30000000 Table 

Regression statistics Table . Available oxygen Multiple R ,  Central Russia R-squared ,  The Volga Region Scaled R-squared ,  Southern Russia Standard error   Northwestern Russia Experimental observation   North Caucasus District  The Urals Then, the pollutant emission including carbon dioxide and pro-  Siberia duced oxygen in every region were calculated. Finally, the amount  Far Eastern Russia of net oxygen was specifi ed. The standard equals    kilos per Table  capita per year. In  region of Russia there is enough oxygen for healthy living. And even Far Eastern Russia varies from standard by st quarter -,   tons of oxygen per capita for one year. The problem here is nd quarter -, connected with logistics and transportation. In the regions with rd quarter , more transport opportunities, the amount of logging is higher. th quarter , After that the impact of the volume of deforestation on GDP Then the impact of logging was analyzed in dynamics. The num- per capita, and on the quantity of people with respiratory diseas- ber of people with respiratory diseases is more infl uenced by defor- es was compared in dynamics. All data was collected over  year, estation that the economic situation in the country. The method of from  till . GDP data was collected over quarters, so the chain rates was used in order to exclude nonsense correlation. seasonality should be excluded. GDP per capita reaches peak lev- Finally, the research showed that deforestation aff ect adversely el in the fourth quarter and is the lowest in the fi rst one. people’s health, while the economic situation slightly changes.

   I. M, Q  M C T     R

   I. M, Q  M C

C

To recap, it is worth mentioning that the problem of the deforestation exists in the Russian Federation and it is needed to be solved. This occurrence makes harm to ecology and people’s health. In this case the preventive measures must be taken into account. It is necessary to enhance logistics and transportation in the Eastern part of the country and reduce the number of factories in the west, as it will provide more oxygen there.

B

. Gareeva, N. M. Statistics in charts and tables. — Moscow: Eksmo, .  p. (in Russian) . Harry Larson. What Is Overpopulation? / The Environmentalist, . p. . Ovsyannikova S. N. Statistics, . (in Russian) . gks.ru — the offi cial statistics website.

 M  E

 Data management for business intelligence: collection, storage and processing issues

E I Head of Management and Entrepreneurship Department Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

A

Business process management dependency on data is continually growing. Practical experience has shown that even massive international corporations face a number of typical pitfalls when dealing with data. These pitfalls and simple solutions are considered in the article. Key words: applied Data Science, Process Mining, business process management (BPM), business process intelligence, data management

I

Information technology development made a signif- icant contribution into the business process management. There is a plenty BMP tools that allow to design the core business process with all subpro- cesses (TO-BE), to run the processes, to control it and to do the research on the current state of the designed process (AS-IS) [].

 Data management for business intelligence: collection, storage and processing issues

A

I

  I. M, Q  M C D    

Process itself is a source of company’s costs, meanwhile • This system should collect a log of all events happened to correct processes assure required quality and company’s effi- any case handled ciency. This makes business process management extremely • These logs should at least contain the case id, activity name, important to any high-level executive. Previously the business time stamp process intelligence tasks were expensive and time consuming. • Data logs should be available to researchers Nowadays there is still might be a need for external support, The company has SAP ERP system which was promising because but many of the business intelligence tasks can be accom- of the face that SAP does store the event data on any handled plished easier and even automatically due to the data science case or order []. The problem occurred when it was discovered advancement []. that the database for the SAP logs is located in head offi ce and This article considers a number of issues that research groups nobody can say how to extract the requested data from there. To from the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of RANEPA solve this issue the research group had to make a detailed de- faced when did the business process researches for the Moscow scription of the requested data, which was sent to Moscow offi ce headquarters of the top international corporations from diff er- and to the headquarter afterwards. Out of  weeks of the re- ent business areas. search it took all together six months to receive the actual data. Obviously, there is a trade-off between data security and ability T C to extract value from data but sometimes it makes sense to trust the local offi ces and store the data at a place where in can be used The most global challenge came from the with maximum effi ciency []. Order leading international manufacturer of Another issue with data acquisition was an enormous part of home appliances. The task was to analyze duplicates within the event logs. A lot of “order” and “delivery” the effi ciency of the company’s department Delivery events have been duplicated multiple times with the same case id, of logistics. There was an assumption that activity name, time stamp and resource (the responsible person the initially designed process is violated by conducted this particular activity). Out of  Mb of CSV-format- Goods Issue the employees and sometimes the SLAs on ted data provided,  Mb contained duplicated event logs. Though the delivery timing are exceeded. To per-  Mb of unique data contained a log over  thousand events which form the analysis a SHOULD-BE process Invoice was enough to build an AS-IS process map (see Fig. ) but this snap map has been requested (see Fig. ). shot of the database shows that over % of the company’s data At a ﬁ rst glance one can notice that the storage capacities are occupied with the useless duplicates. Return picture has been created without any com- Order The key ﬁ nds of the research itself are outside of the scope of monly used notation (BPMN., EPC etc.) QTY Difference QTY this article, but the Figure  illustrates how useful can be the Pro- [] which makes the research process a bit Return cess Mining approach to the company’s business process intelli- Delivery more complicated. It has been decided to gence. Though the SHOULD-BE and AS-IS process maps have use Process Mining approach to replicate Credit much in common [][], there is still a number of crucial devia- Price Difference Price the AS-IS process model []. This approach Note tions (business process violations), bottlenecks and many other assumes a number of things []: useful insights. F. . SHOULD-BE • Company should have either ERP or The was a diff erent request for the customer handle process process model of CRM system that supports a process logistics department from one of the top global luxury cars manufacturer. The idea

   I. M, Q  M C D    

   I. M, Q  M C D     all the requested Excel tables have been provided to the group Sales Order Sales Order 2,948 Instant without any anonymization or encoding and kept the entire in- 1,181 1,181 1,058 93 69,1 mths 18,6 d formation about multimillion charity activity of this global Delivery 2,018 Delivery 11,6 yrs 4,331 Instant company. This is another extreme case of bad data governance 1,219 25,9 hrs that may cause leaking of the commercially sensitive informa- Confirmaion Confirmaion tion. of service 1,834 of service Instant All the above-mentioned cases of commercial information 1,229 Instant misusage also increase the importance of the access restriction GD Goods Issue GD Goods Issue 73 2,179 Instant 2,91 hrs policy. This policy doesn’t need to be too strict which can pre- 1,221 229 14,2 d 83,6 mins vent getting value from the data, but it has to defend the enter- Invoice Credit Note Invoice Credit Note prise secrets and information completeness. In addition to tradi- 1,826 365 Instant Instant tional scheme of the Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) [], it 128 5 63,7 mths 3,5 wks 1,692 seems to be natural to introduce the following roles: Return Order Return Order 365 Instant • Database assembler — a person who designs a database and grants the assess rights to it F. . AS-IS process model of logistics department • Writer — a person or a piece of code who puts the relevant was to analyze the data obtained each time when a customer ar- data into the database rives at a service station. Unfortunately, even top-management • Viewer — a person or a piece of code who can obtain the representatives of Moscow offi ce couldn’t obtain a permission to data from a database do the researches on these data though the data can be encoded • Inspector — a piece of code that checks whether the data- with no eff ect to the research outcomes. base is complete, consistent and bears no duplicates The third negative case worth to be considered is a case of an It is important to say that Writer should not be capable of chang- international pharmaceutical company. There was a demand to ing the database design. Viewer should not be capable of chang- research and re-design the current process of the charity re- ing the data. It also makes sense to introduce the diff erent levels quests acceptance. The time limit for a single charity request of viewers according to the enterprise hierarchical structure and consideration has been set to be up to three months but at early business needs. Inspector has to make sure that a data in a data-  there still were a number of requests from  waiting for base are stored properly, nothing is lost (this should be techni- the charity committee decision. The company receives around cally impossible) and no duplicated or other irrelevant data is  requests from a various Russian non-profi t healthcare organ- stored. ization annually, but all the relevant data is stored in a set of Ex- Analyzing the pitfalls mentioned above it is possible to list a cel tables. There has been a case in the past when one of the em- number of data collection, storage and processing guidelines: ployees occasionally deleted a dozen or rows from the table with- • Company should try and collect the data on each signifi cant out any possibility to recover it. Apart from that there have been event within the business process a number of process violation issues. • Data should be available to people who can generate as To start investigation of the issues a group of the researches much value as possible unless the risk of losing critical in- requested the access to the current tables that the company formation becomes too high uses to trace current state of every single request. In response

   I. M, Q  M C D     all the requested Excel tables have been provided to the group Sales Order Sales Order 2,948 Instant without any anonymization or encoding and kept the entire in- 1,181 1,181 1,058 93 69,1 mths 18,6 d formation about multimillion charity activity of this global Delivery 2,018 Delivery 11,6 yrs 4,331 Instant company. This is another extreme case of bad data governance 1,219 25,9 hrs that may cause leaking of the commercially sensitive informa- Confirmaion Confirmaion tion. of service 1,834 of service Instant All the above-mentioned cases of commercial information 1,229 Instant misusage also increase the importance of the access restriction GD Goods Issue GD Goods Issue 73 2,179 Instant 2,91 hrs policy. This policy doesn’t need to be too strict which can pre- 1,221 229 14,2 d 83,6 mins vent getting value from the data, but it has to defend the enter- Invoice Credit Note Invoice Credit Note prise secrets and information completeness. In addition to tradi- 1,826 365 Instant Instant tional scheme of the Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) [], it 128 5 63,7 mths 3,5 wks 1,692 seems to be natural to introduce the following roles: Return Order Return Order 365 Instant • Database assembler — a person who designs a database and grants the assess rights to it F. . AS-IS process model of logistics department • Writer — a person or a piece of code who puts the relevant was to analyze the data obtained each time when a customer ar- data into the database rives at a service station. Unfortunately, even top-management • Viewer — a person or a piece of code who can obtain the representatives of Moscow offi ce couldn’t obtain a permission to data from a database do the researches on these data though the data can be encoded • Inspector — a piece of code that checks whether the data- with no eff ect to the research outcomes. base is complete, consistent and bears no duplicates The third negative case worth to be considered is a case of an It is important to say that Writer should not be capable of chang- international pharmaceutical company. There was a demand to ing the database design. Viewer should not be capable of chang- research and re-design the current process of the charity re- ing the data. It also makes sense to introduce the diff erent levels quests acceptance. The time limit for a single charity request of viewers according to the enterprise hierarchical structure and consideration has been set to be up to three months but at early business needs. Inspector has to make sure that a data in a data-  there still were a number of requests from  waiting for base are stored properly, nothing is lost (this should be techni- the charity committee decision. The company receives around cally impossible) and no duplicated or other irrelevant data is  requests from a various Russian non-profi t healthcare organ- stored. ization annually, but all the relevant data is stored in a set of Ex- Analyzing the pitfalls mentioned above it is possible to list a cel tables. There has been a case in the past when one of the em- number of data collection, storage and processing guidelines: ployees occasionally deleted a dozen or rows from the table with- • Company should try and collect the data on each signifi cant out any possibility to recover it. Apart from that there have been event within the business process a number of process violation issues. • Data should be available to people who can generate as To start investigation of the issues a group of the researches much value as possible unless the risk of losing critical in- requested the access to the current tables that the company formation becomes too high uses to trace current state of every single request. In response

   I. M, Q  M C • Data should be available at a place where it can generate as Project risk management: much value as possible unless the risk of losing critical information becomes too high a case of developing an • To maintain data completeness and consistency there innovative manufacturing should be four technical levels of data collectors and users: enterprise assemblers, writers, viewers and inspectors • Data Viewers and Collectors should not be capable of delet- ing anything from the database By introducing the simple data access rights and rules of usage A L, there is a possibility to get more of the data that are stored on the company’s capacities. Regular database inspections may free M S L D up the signifi cant amount of enterprise storage space by getting Students rid of the useless data. These simple steps could both decrease Russian Presidential Academy of National the company’s costs and generate revenue in a number of aspects. Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences R A . W.M.P. van der Aalst. Process Mining: Data Science in Action. Springer Verlag, Berlin, . The article describes the most probable risks of an . C. Guenther and Wil M. P. van der Aalst. Fuzzy mining: Adaptive emerging innovative company. The general carac- process simplifi cation based on multi-perspective metrics in BPM, teristics of a fi rm which is continually conducting blue-sky research and implementing new technolo- , ser. LNCS, vol. , , pp. –. gy while manufacturing rather traditional goods . W.M.P. van der Aalst. Business Process Management: A Compre- (metal-composite cylinders for various modes of hensive Survey. ISRN Software Engineering, pages –, . transport) are provided. Its major potential risks are doi:.//. identifi ed. The measures aimed at preventing immi- . OMG. Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). Object nent negative ramifi cations are set forward. Management Group, dtc/––, . Key Words: innovation, metal-composite cylin- . S.J.J. Leemans, D. Fahland, and W.M.P. van der Aalst. Process ders, risk identifi cation, strategic risks, operational and Deviation Exploration with Inductive Visual Miner. In L. Li- risks, fi nancial risks, hazards, competitive advantag- monad and B. Weber, editors, Business Process Management es, PESTLE-analysis, Spider diagram, Data Envelop- Demo Sessions (BPMD), volume  of CEUR Workshop ment (Saati) Analysis Proceedings, pages –. CEUR-WS.org, . . Enterprise Information Management: Best Practices in Data Gov- I ernance, An Oracle White Paper on Enterprise Architecture, May . Nowadays high-pressure gas cylinders are in de- . David F. Ferraiolo, D. Richard Kuhn, Ramaswamy Chandramou- mand in Russia. There are several cylinder manu- li. Role-Based Access Control, second edition,  facturers in Moscow and its suburbs, Izhevsk, Kot-

   I. M, Q  M C • Data should be available at a place where it can generate as Project risk management: much value as possible unless the risk of losing critical information becomes too high a case of developing an • To maintain data completeness and consistency there innovative manufacturing should be four technical levels of data collectors and users: enterprise assemblers, writers, viewers and inspectors • Data Viewers and Collectors should not be capable of delet- ing anything from the database By introducing the simple data access rights and rules of usage A L, there is a possibility to get more of the data that are stored on the company’s capacities. Regular database inspections may free M S L D up the signifi cant amount of enterprise storage space by getting Students rid of the useless data. These simple steps could both decrease Russian Presidential Academy of National the company’s costs and generate revenue in a number of aspects. Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences R A . W.M.P. van der Aalst. Process Mining: Data Science in Action. Springer Verlag, Berlin, . The article describes the most probable risks of an . C. Guenther and Wil M. P. van der Aalst. Fuzzy mining: Adaptive emerging innovative company. The general carac- process simplifi cation based on multi-perspective metrics in BPM, teristics of a fi rm which is continually conducting blue-sky research and implementing new technolo- , ser. LNCS, vol. , , pp. –. gy while manufacturing rather traditional goods . W.M.P. van der Aalst. Business Process Management: A Compre- (metal-composite cylinders for various modes of hensive Survey. ISRN Software Engineering, pages –, . transport) are provided. Its major potential risks are doi:.//. identifi ed. The measures aimed at preventing immi- . OMG. Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). Object nent negative ramifi cations are set forward. Management Group, dtc/––, . Key Words: innovation, metal-composite cylin- . S.J.J. Leemans, D. Fahland, and W.M.P. van der Aalst. Process ders, risk identifi cation, strategic risks, operational and Deviation Exploration with Inductive Visual Miner. In L. Li- risks, fi nancial risks, hazards, competitive advantag- monad and B. Weber, editors, Business Process Management es, PESTLE-analysis, Spider diagram, Data Envelop- Demo Sessions (BPMD), volume  of CEUR Workshop ment (Saati) Analysis Proceedings, pages –. CEUR-WS.org, . . Enterprise Information Management: Best Practices in Data Gov- I ernance, An Oracle White Paper on Enterprise Architecture, May . Nowadays high-pressure gas cylinders are in de- . David F. Ferraiolo, D. Richard Kuhn, Ramaswamy Chandramou- mand in Russia. There are several cylinder manu- li. Role-Based Access Control, second edition,  facturers in Moscow and its suburbs, Izhevsk, Kot-

   I. M, Q  M C P   las and Orsk which have a high capacity for innovation and are T . Comparison of diff erent kinds of cylinders permanently devising new goods with striking market potential Feature Metal cylinders Metal-composite [; ; ; ]. Often do they deliver them to other companies, cylinders which specialize in fabricting various means of transport. They various shapes + + operate in rocket-and-space, aviation and the automotive in- non-shattering destruction — + dustry. It is a particular case of the business-to-business (BB) anti-corrosion properties — + sector. ﬂ ameproof — + Furthermore, these cylinders allow for the business-to-con- explosion safety — + temperature range (°C) - sumer (BC) sector, as the owners of land sections in the coun- – + - – + tryside will need dependable heating and cooking units. These weight (kg)  , cylinders can make the technical appliances function for the pur- working pressure (MPa)   pose intended. Furthermore, this company is the only Russian metal-compos- As for the business-to-government (BG) sales, the authorities ite cylinder manufacturer the machinery and equipment of which are concerned with introducing new gasiﬁ cation programs in the are transported from abroad, as other plants which buy some constituent territories of the Russian Federation. The cylinders technological items overseas focus on fabricating metal cylinders could also become an integral part of this undertaking []. for diff erent industries []. All these segments are far-reaching for these goods but it is It goes without saying that these products may be considered practically impossible to gauge in which sphere they will primar- to be innovative, primarily for our domestic market. Nevertheless, ily be present in a few decades []. this large-scale project implies numerous hazards [].

K      R   In theory, project risks may fall into four key categories: Currently, a project on developing an innovative enterprise manufacturing metal-composite high-pressure gas cylinders is being • strategic risks which have an impact on the company value carried out. Its presumable location is Chelyabinsk, which was on the whole; chosen because of its proximity to the key suppliers and accept- • operational risks which infl uence certain fi nancial fi gures able rent payment for the facilities. The goods are expected to be (total revenue, profi t); produced for wholesale trade with other enterprises, which, in • diff erent kinds of fi nancial risks; turn, fabricate diverse modes of transport: aircraft, spaceships • hazards which are unlikely to take place but if they do, they and conventional cars. will invariably incur devastating losses. For fi nding out their characteristics and detecting their inno- PESTLE-analysis was carried out for identifying major strategic vative elements, these metal-composite cylinders were compared risks of the enterprise which may emerge in the external envi- with ubiquitous metal cylinders (Table ). ronment (Table ). It could be inferred from the table above that metal-compos- A crucial political risk of this company is severance of relations ite cylinders have some conspicuous advantages in comparison with its foreign suppliers which may result in an urgent search with other types, such as non-shattering destruction, anti-corro- for local alternatives []. This will defi nitely incur extra transac- sion properties, high working pressure and low weight [;]. tional costs and be time-consuming. Moreover, there is no guar-

   I. M, Q  M C P   las and Orsk which have a high capacity for innovation and are T . Comparison of diff erent kinds of cylinders permanently devising new goods with striking market potential Feature Metal cylinders Metal-composite [; ; ; ]. Often do they deliver them to other companies, cylinders which specialize in fabricting various means of transport. They various shapes + + operate in rocket-and-space, aviation and the automotive in- non-shattering destruction — + dustry. It is a particular case of the business-to-business (BB) anti-corrosion properties — + sector. ﬂ ameproof — + Furthermore, these cylinders allow for the business-to-con- explosion safety — + temperature range (°C) - sumer (BC) sector, as the owners of land sections in the coun- – + - – + tryside will need dependable heating and cooking units. These weight (kg)  , cylinders can make the technical appliances function for the pur- working pressure (MPa)   pose intended. Furthermore, this company is the only Russian metal-compos- As for the business-to-government (BG) sales, the authorities ite cylinder manufacturer the machinery and equipment of which are concerned with introducing new gasiﬁ cation programs in the are transported from abroad, as other plants which buy some constituent territories of the Russian Federation. The cylinders technological items overseas focus on fabricating metal cylinders could also become an integral part of this undertaking []. for diff erent industries []. All these segments are far-reaching for these goods but it is It goes without saying that these products may be considered practically impossible to gauge in which sphere they will primar- to be innovative, primarily for our domestic market. Nevertheless, ily be present in a few decades []. this large-scale project implies numerous hazards [].

   I. M, Q  M C P   antee that the fi rm will discover a Russian equipment manufac- ket. Comparatively high prices of these cylinders are explained turer which produces the machinery with comparable technical by their outstanding technical characteristics (Table ). characteristics. Henceforth, decreasing company value is T . The Data Envelopment Analysis (Saati) inevitable. Features Weight Metal Metal- Diff erence Results T . PESTLE-analysis of the cylinder manufacturer of the cylinders composite factors cylinders Political Economic Legal Weight of the ,%  , % ,% escalation of intensifi cation of fi scal regulation cylinders international tension competition Temperature range ,%   % % a shift from BB to BC exchange control and BG Working pressure ,%   % ,% macroeconomic customs regulation Non-shattering ,%   % ,% phenomena new standards of destruction

production Overall ,% + % + ,% + ,% + % = ,% a diffi culty in obtaining a patent According to the Data Envelopment Analysis developed by Saati, Social Technological Environmental the prices of these goods should surpass the prices of other prod- non-adaptive employees slow implementation of environmental ucts of the same industry by at least fi ve times []. Therefore, the of certain fi rms to new innovation regulation technology because of competitive intelligence accidental explosion of a pricing strategy of the company ought to remain unchanged []. insuffi cient education cylinder Furthermore, some experts surmise that the demand for these gas cylinders may soar in retail and in the business-to-govern- The impending social negative factor is the inability of the ment (BG) sector. In both cases, these cylinders would meet workforce of certain Russian companies to properly use the cyl- their needs. In contrast, the demand for these cylinders in the inders while adjusting them to means of transport by reason of wholesale trade, particularly in the aviation industry, may shrink. lacking education and experience. Apparently, this point is di- Such drastic changes in the market patterns should be foreseen rectly linked to the hazards which may be disastrous for the or- in advance []. ganization []. Another economic factor is not specifi c for the industry but it As for the economic risks, fi rst of all, the competitors’ perfor- can lead to substantial damage. It embraces negative macroeco- mance represents a real threat. At present, there are several pow- nomic phenomena provoked by an unfavourable economic situ- erful cylinder manufacturers in other towns []. For instance, over ation in the country. For example, high infl ation rates will inev- the last six months, high-pressure light aluminum cylinders were itably make prices of products grow at a lower pace than those of created by another fi rm. They must be of choice for the rocket- raw materials. Probable economic recession implies cyclical un- and-space industry. The Roscosmos is believed to acquire them employment. As a result, the disposable income of the popula- for equipping new air vehicles. tion and its purchasing power may plummet. The competitors are likely to come up with the breakthroughs The core strategic technological risk of the innovative enter- that will help them surpass this company in some regards []. prise is slow implementation of innovation in production in vir- Presumably, the market will be overwhelmed with better alterna- tue of ineffi cient research and development (R&D) programs []. tives to these goods in the near future. Besides, it cannot be ruled out that some organizations will un- Moreover, some strong market players may unexpectedly de- dertake the competitive intelligence, hoping to fi nd out and cide to reduce the prices of the cylinders. This pricing policy will adopt the company’s unique approach. aff ect this enterprise in a negative way, as it is labeled as up-mar-

   I. M, Q  M C P   antee that the fi rm will discover a Russian equipment manufac- ket. Comparatively high prices of these cylinders are explained turer which produces the machinery with comparable technical by their outstanding technical characteristics (Table ). characteristics. Henceforth, decreasing company value is T . The Data Envelopment Analysis (Saati) inevitable. Features Weight Metal Metal- Diff erence Results T . PESTLE-analysis of the cylinder manufacturer of the cylinders composite factors cylinders Political Economic Legal Weight of the ,%  , % ,% escalation of intensifi cation of fi scal regulation cylinders international tension competition Temperature range ,%   % % a shift from BB to BC exchange control and BG Working pressure ,%   % ,% macroeconomic customs regulation Non-shattering ,%   % ,% phenomena new standards of destruction

   I. M, Q  M C P  

Most legal factors are related to passing new laws. For example, durable machinery and equipment in Northern Europe. As for li- if tax rates skyrocket, the company’s net profi t, as well as its prof- quidity troubles, it is unlikely to face them because its quick and itability index, will decline. Imposing high tariff s on the foreign current liquidity ratios are acceptable. equipment and signifi cant changes of currency regulation will pre- All in all, it is practically impossible to mitigate some of these vent the company from acquiring effi cacious machinery overseas risks because they do not depend on the company policy, where- []. New standards of production may also pose a challenge for the as some potential pitfalls can be dealt with. enterprise, which will have to redirect manufacturing. In addition, the company may have diffi culty in obtaining a patent. This will D        make it shift the deadlines and even worsen its solvency.      Strategic environmental factors can be divided into two groups []. The fi rst one is connected with the above-mentioned legal For illustrating the strategic position of the organization on the factors and implies natural conservation law-making. The second market and choosing the most appropriate methods of tackling one covers accidental explosion of a cylinder (e. g. due to careless its potential problems, the Spider diagram was used (Picture ). exploitation), which may cause irreparable havoc to certain nat- According to this diagram, our company has some detectable ural areas. strategic competitive advantages on the market, such as a sophis- As for potential strategic risks of this cylinder manufacturer ticated product with unique application properties; a new pro- which may happen in the internal environment, the most prob- duction technology, as well as impressive capacity for innovation, able one is a departure of a key employee. This may take place in which enable the fi rm to manufacture high-end cylinders; the any company regardless of the industry []. policy aimed at satisfying the clients’ needs. Its production facil- Operational risks of the company may occur in the internal ities correspond to the average level in the industry []. environment at three stages. At the pre-production stage, the However, this organization has some major weaknesses which core risk is opting for untrustworthy suppliers, which may aggra- must be dealt with for preventing it from grievous ramifi cations. vate the company’s performance. At the production stage, the fol- Our company Market average lowing risks may take place: employment of unskilled workforce lacking involvement in R&D; critical staff turnover due to a weak Product corporate culture; programming and technical breakdowns, such Customer orientaion Mission and vision as suspension of production, an increase in rejected items and batch losses. At the post-production stage, its potential challeng- HR Corporate culture es are caused by its sales policy which may imply choosing an in- appropriate distribution channel or organizing an ineff ective advertising campaign []. Innovation Information disclosure Potential fi nancial risks of this cylinder manufacturer are comprised of credit risks and market risks []. As for its credit risks, there is no guarantee that the receivables will be paid by the con- Global strategy Company management tractual partners on a full scale on time. This may either be caused by untrustworthiness of these partners or some unfore- seen circumstances. Market risks which may aff ect this company Facilities Technology consider foreign currency exposure, as it acquires its reliable and P . The Spider diagram

   I. M, Q  M C P  

First of all, the mission and the vision of the company are cur- Nowadays the market of metal-composite cylinders is at the rently unclear and vague. It should determine its core objectives initial stage of development in Russia []. It is highly likely that for which it will strive. This must help the company evade any new manufacturers of these goods will become successful owing communicative failure. to their remarkable products, eff ective management and timely Besides, it is crucial to provide more eff ective company man- estimation of all the risks. Nonetheless, the companies must be agement using diff erent motivation techniques and establish a able to adapt to market tendencies and even shift to other mar- strong corporate culture. Otherwise, a decline in company man- ket segments in no time, if it is required by the emerging patterns. ageability may turn out to be outrageous []. Maintaining and expanding international economic activity is R also vital to the cylinder manufacturer, as this will result in gain- ing recognition on the global scale and maximizing profi ts. . Choonjoo Lee, Yong-bae Ji Data Envelopment Analysis in Sta- Last but not least, information disclosure is one of the most ta// The Stata Journal. — . — №  URL: https://www.cgdev. important factors to the customers. Many of them will be reluc- org/sites/default/fi les/archive/doc/stata/MO/DEA/dea_in_stata. tant to purchase the company’s products, being unaware of its fi - pdf nancial condition. Thus the cylinder manufacturer must reveal . Knyaginin V. N. Novaya tekhnologicheskaya revolyutsiya: vy- its pivotal data for increasing its market share. zovy i vozmozhnosti dlya Rossii. Ekspertno-analiticheskiy As for the risks which appear in the external environment and doklad. M.: Tsentr strategicheskikh razrabotok, . —  s. hazards, no production unit can impact them directly. These fac- . Lazonick W. Innovative enterprise or sweatshop economics? In tors ought to be taken into consideration while making strategic search of foundations of economic analysis// SSRN. — . — decisions regarding the company policy. Operational risks can №  partly be transferred to insurance companies []. Some other . http://kemz.ru — the offi cial website of Kotlas Electromechan- methods which frequently prove eff ective are: ical Plant • hiring a turn-around manager; . http://safi t.info — the offi cial website of Safi t Company • creating fi nancial reserves for bridging the cash gap; . http://www.realstorm.ru — the offi cial website of Real-Storm • looking for other kinds of suppliers; Research and Production Company • switching to extra distribution channels; . https://www.digitronicgas.ru/ — the offi cial website of Dig- • devising various scenarios of the marketing campaign’s itronic Autogas Company outcomes; • taking extra precautions for avoiding spoilt production; . https://www.mirgaza.ru/vse-o-gbo/opisanie-tipovykh-komple- • providing the labour with additional training programs in ktuiushchikh-gbo/metanovye-ballony/ — the website describ- order to enhance the workers’ skills. ing diff erent kinds of high-presssure clinders . https://pestleanalysis.com/what-is-pestle-analysis/ — the web- C site describing the technique of PESTLE-analysis . https://tehindustria.ru/gazovye-ballony/metallokompozitnye- Any innovative enterprise, in whichever industry it operates, is ballony/ — the website describing metal-composite cylinders an extremely hazardous initiative. It incurs plenty of obstacles . https://www.the-organic-mind.com/spider-diagrams.html — which may seem unsurmountable at fi rst sight. the website describing the Spider diagram

   I. M, Q  M C P  

  A     A new approach for mean slower consumer spending growth, higher consumer prices, and disrupted global supply chains . Therefore, negotiations manufacturer on the pricing strategies between manufacturers and retailers to- to improve traditional price day are becoming more and more relevant, since manufacturer negotiation at the retailer`s and retailer want to sustain current level of sales. This article focuses on the Russian consumer electronics mar- market monopoly ket, which recently faced a gradual merge of tree the most infl u- ential market players. In April  M. Video Group closed a purchase deal with Eldorado Company, and later in September the P S, company bought German retailer Mediamarkt. By , a market A Z share of the joint company will have been increased up to %. Students In such market conditions, there is a high pressure on manufac- Russian Presidential Academy of National turers from the joint retailer’s side, including the price setting Economy and Public Administration process. Therefore, suggested in this article strategies will focus Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences both on costs and pressure reduction. The aim of this paper is to provide an insight into the ap- E I proaches for manufacturers to sell-out price negotiation with the Head of Management and Entrepreneurship retailer within the new market conditions. Further strategy is divided into two separate parts, called “Standoff Strategy” and Department “Collaborative Strategy”. A content of these strategies is funda- Russian Presidential Academy of National mentally diff erent. The fi rst one implicates a complete drift from Economy and Public Administration price negotiation into creating own distribution channels, which Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences may allow a manufacturer to increase its infl uence at the market. A While the second one is based on the establishing reciprocally profi table relationships between a manufacturer and the retailer The aim of this paper is to provide an insight into and concentrates on creation of shared business processes be- the approaches for manufacturers to sell-out price tween the parties. negotiation with the retailer within the new market conditions on the Russian consumer electronics S :   market.   Key words: collaboration, distribution channels, manufacturer-retailer relationships, sell-out pricing Within this strategy, the aim is to increase a manufacturer’s infl uence on the price of goods by creating alternative distribution I channels, or in other words, to achieve a price autonomy from

Retail sector reﬂ ects changes in the global economy,  which stem from the alterations in ﬁ scal, monetary Ira Kalish, Vicky Eng. Global Powers of Retailing . Available at: https://www. deloitte.com/global/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/global-powers-of-re- and trade policies. For retailers, this change will tailing.html (Accessed  May ).

  A     A new approach for mean slower consumer spending growth, higher consumer prices, and disrupted global supply chains . Therefore, negotiations manufacturer on the pricing strategies between manufacturers and retailers to- to improve traditional price day are becoming more and more relevant, since manufacturer negotiation at the retailer`s and retailer want to sustain current level of sales. This article focuses on the Russian consumer electronics mar- market monopoly ket, which recently faced a gradual merge of tree the most infl u- ential market players. In April  M. Video Group closed a purchase deal with Eldorado Company, and later in September the P S, company bought German retailer Mediamarkt. By , a market A Z share of the joint company will have been increased up to %. Students In such market conditions, there is a high pressure on manufac- Russian Presidential Academy of National turers from the joint retailer’s side, including the price setting Economy and Public Administration process. Therefore, suggested in this article strategies will focus Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences both on costs and pressure reduction. The aim of this paper is to provide an insight into the ap- E I proaches for manufacturers to sell-out price negotiation with the Head of Management and Entrepreneurship retailer within the new market conditions. Further strategy is divided into two separate parts, called “Standoff Strategy” and Department “Collaborative Strategy”. A content of these strategies is funda- Russian Presidential Academy of National mentally diff erent. The fi rst one implicates a complete drift from Economy and Public Administration price negotiation into creating own distribution channels, which Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences may allow a manufacturer to increase its infl uence at the market. A While the second one is based on the establishing reciprocally profi table relationships between a manufacturer and the retailer The aim of this paper is to provide an insight into and concentrates on creation of shared business processes be- the approaches for manufacturers to sell-out price tween the parties. negotiation with the retailer within the new market conditions on the Russian consumer electronics S :   market.   Key words: collaboration, distribution channels, manufacturer-retailer relationships, sell-out pricing Within this strategy, the aim is to increase a manufacturer’s infl uence on the price of goods by creating alternative distribution I channels, or in other words, to achieve a price autonomy from

   I. M, Q  M C A     the retailer-monopolist. In order to elaborate innovative solution, it is highly important to count on the current trends, one of which is shopping personalization. Nowadays consumers are becoming more and more exacting: not only do they want to receive information instantly and buy on the spot, but to get a unique and personalized buying proposition. That is why voice assistance is a new and innovative decision. However, programming own voice assistant is somewhat expensive, therefore it is suggested to use an already excising innovative Russian voice assistant Alisa by Yandex. With Voice Assistance consumers get a personalized proposition by answering key Alisa’s questions C :  about their needs. Moreover, recently Yandex has launched a    - loudspeaker Alisa — an important step in creating a Smart House System. Thereby integrating with Yandex Alisa now, manufac- While Stadoff strategy is somewhat radical and innovative idea, turer will create a possibility for a consumer to turn his or her there is an alternative collaboration strategy, which is based on own house into a shop in a long term. In addition, now there is the ROPO model  (Research online/purchase offl ine). Insights of a sharp growth of applications-aggregators (like Airbnb, Avia- Consumer Barometer by Google show that % of users in Rus- sales, Booking.com, AliExpress etc), which are easy and conven- sia google about the product before making buying decision. At ient in usage, but have nothing to do with brand awareness and the same time % buy the product offl ine and only % buy on- brand commitment. line. Hence, it is necessary to maintain relationships with the al- Pizzeria Papa John’s has already followed the trend of person- ready existing retailer-monopolist. alization and successfully integrated its ordering service into Collaboration strategy is also based on the realities of Indus- Yandex Alisa, even though it is presented in the Application-ag- try ., which could be implemented only with the existence of gregator “Delivery Club”. The reason for is that via Alisa consum- end-to-end digitalization of all the tangible assets and their in- er has practically no choice, but to order with Papa John’s, be- tegration into the digital ecosystem along with all the partners cause it was the ﬁ rst to collaborate with the voice assistant, and who participate in value-added chain . In our case these are dis- by saying “Alisa, I want to order pizza”, he will automatically re- tributors and retailers. ceive a proposition by Papa John’s. But if one opens an aggrega- Basically, collaboration strategy includes  main points of con- tor like Delivery, he would see numerous off ers by diff erent res- tiguity with between the manufacturer and retailer. These are hu- taurants, and there is a little chance he would choose particular- man capital, pricing and supply chain. Each part provides clear ly Papa John’s, unless he is their regular consumer and is very information about main business processes which can be im- loyal to the brand. In a nutshell, using Yandex Alisa as a new distribution Chan-  New Retail (). Available at: https://new-retail.ru/business/eff ektivnye_kom- nel within the Standoff Strategy is a highly innovative way to at- munikatsii_kak_digital_reklama_vliyaet_na_offl ayn_pokupki/. (Accessed  May ). tract new customers, whereby a manufacturer is free from the  Eli Tidhar, Jeremy Siegman, Dan Paikowsky. Toward the next horizon of Indus- need of price negotiation with the retailer. Furthermore, this so- try ., . Available at: https://www.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/focus/in- lution would create a great competitive advantage for the com- dustry-–/building-capabilities-through-collaborations-startups.html (Ac- pany today as well as in the long term. cessed  May ).

   I. M, Q  M C A     the retailer-monopolist. In order to elaborate innovative solution, it is highly important to count on the current trends, one of which is shopping personalization. Nowadays consumers are becoming more and more exacting: not only do they want to receive information instantly and buy on the spot, but to get a unique and personalized buying proposition. That is why voice assistance is a new and innovative decision. However, programming own voice assistant is somewhat expensive, therefore it is suggested to use an already excising innovative Russian voice assistant Alisa by Yandex. With Voice Assistance consumers get a personalized proposition by answering key Alisa’s questions C :  about their needs. Moreover, recently Yandex has launched a    - loudspeaker Alisa — an important step in creating a Smart House System. Thereby integrating with Yandex Alisa now, manufac- While Stadoff strategy is somewhat radical and innovative idea, turer will create a possibility for a consumer to turn his or her there is an alternative collaboration strategy, which is based on own house into a shop in a long term. In addition, now there is the ROPO model  (Research online/purchase offl ine). Insights of a sharp growth of applications-aggregators (like Airbnb, Avia- Consumer Barometer by Google show that % of users in Rus- sales, Booking.com, AliExpress etc), which are easy and conven- sia google about the product before making buying decision. At ient in usage, but have nothing to do with brand awareness and the same time % buy the product offl ine and only % buy on- brand commitment. line. Hence, it is necessary to maintain relationships with the al- Pizzeria Papa John’s has already followed the trend of person- ready existing retailer-monopolist. alization and successfully integrated its ordering service into Collaboration strategy is also based on the realities of Indus- Yandex Alisa, even though it is presented in the Application-ag- try ., which could be implemented only with the existence of gregator “Delivery Club”. The reason for is that via Alisa consum- end-to-end digitalization of all the tangible assets and their in- er has practically no choice, but to order with Papa John’s, be- tegration into the digital ecosystem along with all the partners cause it was the ﬁ rst to collaborate with the voice assistant, and who participate in value-added chain . In our case these are dis- by saying “Alisa, I want to order pizza”, he will automatically re- tributors and retailers. ceive a proposition by Papa John’s. But if one opens an aggrega- Basically, collaboration strategy includes  main points of con- tor like Delivery, he would see numerous off ers by diff erent res- tiguity with between the manufacturer and retailer. These are hu- taurants, and there is a little chance he would choose particular- man capital, pricing and supply chain. Each part provides clear ly Papa John’s, unless he is their regular consumer and is very information about main business processes which can be im- loyal to the brand. In a nutshell, using Yandex Alisa as a new distribution Chan-  New Retail (). Available at: https://new-retail.ru/business/eff ektivnye_kom- nel within the Standoff Strategy is a highly innovative way to at- munikatsii_kak_digital_reklama_vliyaet_na_offl ayn_pokupki/. (Accessed  May ). tract new customers, whereby a manufacturer is free from the  Eli Tidhar, Jeremy Siegman, Dan Paikowsky. Toward the next horizon of Indus- need of price negotiation with the retailer. Furthermore, this so- try ., . Available at: https://www.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/focus/in- lution would create a great competitive advantage for the com- dustry-–/building-capabilities-through-collaborations-startups.html (Ac- pany today as well as in the long term. cessed  May ).

   I. M, Q  M C A     proved by manufacturer and retailer both. The fi rst approach is Companies that commit to this journey will be well on their called KAM model and capabilities changing . It concentrates on way toward sales excellence and sustained competitive advan- retailer-producer relations, as well as on building eff ective vari- tage. ation of interpersonal relations between retailer’s and manufac- The second approach is called Catalyst workshops . The aim of turer’s employees. this approach is to create a platform for the innovations’ devel- The main problem for today is that Key-account managers rely opment. In our case, retailer provides all the data about the cus- more on personal relationships with individual buyers and aren’t tomers and customer behavior. Meanwhile, producer shares its well versed in big data and advanced analytics. So if company de- experience on logistics and eff ective warehousing. A fresh set of cides to change KAM model and capabilities, it will bring growth eyes with an outside perspective can be a catalyst for new ideas. above the category, as well as sales expenses reduction. That is why such sessions called catalyst workshops. The fi rst step is to shift from customer segmentation to cus- The following fi ve measures are critical for eff ective workshop: tomer-portfolio management. Company should determine the • Set up mutually benefi cial incentives; distinct role that each retailer plays in the manufacturer’s port- • Invite the right participants; folio of customers. Examples of roles might be growth driver, • Develop a fact base in advance; profi t driver, scale builder, core customer, or future bet. • Create an idea matrix with specifi c improvement levers; Second step is to tailor key-account teams into customers’ • Follow up and implement. business drivers: In fact, each catalyst workshop is unique, hence a content of such • strategic objectives; even will depend on the specifi c companies’ goals and objectives. • analytical capabilities; • retail operations; C :   • collaboration style; • procurement processes and posture. The main problems that low OSA leads to are postponed sales, In order to support this changes company has to overhaul capa- lost sales, drop in customer satisfaction and the possibility of the bilities, commit to collaboration and upgrade negotiation skills. customer switching to another retailer and/or brand. And the last but the most important part is to supercharge in- Despite the fact that this issue is much more acute in food re- sights at  areas: tail, in electronic retail these eff ects may also be seen. Thus, the following two solutions are widely applied (with the latter being • category performance; the “next step” of the fi rst one): • assortment; • pricing/promotions; • OSA-cooperation • operations; • VMI • innovation; In order to use the OSA-cooperation model the following steps • shopper /consumer behavior. need to be taken:

 Kari Alldredge, Brandon Brown, and Max Magni. Playing catch-up: How to part-  Marc Gilbert, Andreas Gocke, Peter Rosenfeld, and Robert Tevelson. Suppliers as ner with the retailer of the future, . Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/ Partners: A Catalyst for Savings, . Available at: https://www.bcg.com/publi- industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/playing-catch-up-how-to- cations//sourcing-procurement-supply-chain-management-suppliers-as- partner-with-the-retailer-of-the-future# (Accessed  May ). partners.aspx (Accessed  May ).

   I. M, Q  M C A     proved by manufacturer and retailer both. The fi rst approach is Companies that commit to this journey will be well on their called KAM model and capabilities changing . It concentrates on way toward sales excellence and sustained competitive advan- retailer-producer relations, as well as on building eff ective vari- tage. ation of interpersonal relations between retailer’s and manufac- The second approach is called Catalyst workshops . The aim of turer’s employees. this approach is to create a platform for the innovations’ devel- The main problem for today is that Key-account managers rely opment. In our case, retailer provides all the data about the cus- more on personal relationships with individual buyers and aren’t tomers and customer behavior. Meanwhile, producer shares its well versed in big data and advanced analytics. So if company de- experience on logistics and eff ective warehousing. A fresh set of cides to change KAM model and capabilities, it will bring growth eyes with an outside perspective can be a catalyst for new ideas. above the category, as well as sales expenses reduction. That is why such sessions called catalyst workshops. The fi rst step is to shift from customer segmentation to cus- The following fi ve measures are critical for eff ective workshop: tomer-portfolio management. Company should determine the • Set up mutually benefi cial incentives; distinct role that each retailer plays in the manufacturer’s port- • Invite the right participants; folio of customers. Examples of roles might be growth driver, • Develop a fact base in advance; profi t driver, scale builder, core customer, or future bet. • Create an idea matrix with specifi c improvement levers; Second step is to tailor key-account teams into customers’ • Follow up and implement. business drivers: In fact, each catalyst workshop is unique, hence a content of such • strategic objectives; even will depend on the specifi c companies’ goals and objectives. • analytical capabilities; • retail operations; C :   • collaboration style; • procurement processes and posture. The main problems that low OSA leads to are postponed sales, In order to support this changes company has to overhaul capa- lost sales, drop in customer satisfaction and the possibility of the bilities, commit to collaboration and upgrade negotiation skills. customer switching to another retailer and/or brand. And the last but the most important part is to supercharge in- Despite the fact that this issue is much more acute in food re- sights at  areas: tail, in electronic retail these eff ects may also be seen. Thus, the following two solutions are widely applied (with the latter being • category performance; the “next step” of the fi rst one): • assortment; • pricing/promotions; • OSA-cooperation • operations; • VMI • innovation; In order to use the OSA-cooperation model the following steps • shopper /consumer behavior. need to be taken:

   I. M, Q  M C A    

• Order fulfi llment rates should be analyzed, defi ciencies retailer with cash allowances to cover the diff erence. should be worked out Outcomes: margin maintenance benefi ts retailer by reducing • Data (both on the retailer’s and supplier’s side) should be the fi nancial risk associated with partnering with the manufac- made compatible turer. Therefore, margin maintenance should be perceived by the • The measurements needed should be made and relevant buyer to have a positive eff ect on relationship value and may al- data should be exchanged continuously and on a regular ba- low the manufacturer to receive control over sell-out pricing. sis • Supply schedules should be jointly devised and optimized . Special treatment concept • Further improvements should be searched for and made Relationships are elitist, in that they imply special status (Gutek, In order to proceed to the next stage of collaboration the follow- ). We defi ne special treatment  as exceptional service off ered ing requirements must be met, and the following steps need to by manufacturer that the retail buyer perceives as symbolic of be made: preferred status in the manufacturer’s portfolio of accounts. • The objectives for Inventory turns, Inventory levels, Fill- The suggestion is that retailer count on the manufacturer to rates, Transaction costs are agreed upon off er the service not only before all the competitors, but also be- • The supplier is obliged to manage the inventories of the re- fore the “sister” stores in the corporate portfolios, with whom the tailer at the level negotiated (and at the predetermined lev- retailer do not directly compete (food stores etc). el of the logistics infrastructure) Outcomes: special treatment by the manufacturer is supposed • Real-time sharing of data (sales and transfers, inventory to have a positive eff ect on the retailer’ buyer’s relationship value position information such as on-hand, on-order and in- and thereby positively infl uences relationship maintenance in- transit) at the SKU level, point-of-sale and promotions data. tention (RMI). Furthermore, it can serve as an argument for the manufacturer in sell-out price setting. C : P   -’  . Minimum purchase quantity сoncept

Pricing is a very individual aspect of manufacturer-retailer’s re- A minimum purchase quantity  is a minimum rubble amount lationships. Monopoly on the market makes it diffi cult to specu- worth of goods that the distributor or retailer must purchase in late the retailer’s discount. However, several concepts were dis- order to carry the manufacturer’s products. The manufacturer covered, whereby the manufacturer could partially gain control may have a minimum purchase quantity of ₽,. This means over sell-out pricing of retailer. that distributors and retailers must purchase at least ₽, worth of goods to carry their products in their inventory. Mini- . Margin maintenance concept  Janet Wagnera, Sabine Benoit. Creating value in retail buyer–vendor relation- Margin maintenance is deﬁ ned as the retailer’s perception of the ships: A service-centered model, Volume , January . Available at: https:// manufacturer’s promise (ability) to maintain the retailer’s gross www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S. (Accessed  May margin, in dollars, on its sales of the manufacturer’s merchandise. ).  The suggestion is as follows: under the terms of this off er, if Connor Gillivan. Supplier Relationships — How Do They Impact Retail? . Available at: http://connorgillivan.com/supplier-relationships-aff ect-retail/. (Ac- the dollar goal is not met, manufacturer agrees to compensate cessed  May ).

   I. M, Q  M C A    

   I. M, Q  M C A     mum purchase quantities are common for large brands that have . Eli Tidhar, Jeremy Siegman, Dan Paikowsky, Toward the next a strong foothold in the consumer market. horizon of Industry . [электронный ресурс] []. URL: htt- Outcomes: MPQs help the manufacturer to stay profi table, ps://www.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/focus/industry-–/ maintain a healthy cash fl ow and reduce the inventory. building-capabilities-through-collaborations-startups.html . Kari Alldredge, Brandon Brown, and Max Magni, Playing catch- . Key value indicators up: How to partner with the retailer of the future [электронный Key value items (KVIs)  are usually top sellers, traffi c generators, ресурс] []. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/ or highly-searched stock keeping units whose prices consumers consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/playing-catch-up- tend to remember. Key-value categories can account for up to how-to-partner-with-the-retailer-of-the-future# % of an average retailer’s revenue but only half of its profi t. . Marc Gilbert, Andreas Gocke, Peter Rosenfeld, and Robert Tev- Outcomes: Defi ned KVI’s can boost manufacturer’s earnings elson, Suppliers as Partners: A Catalyst for Savings and improve return on sale rate. [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://www.bcg.com/publications//sourcing-procurement-supply-chain-manage- C ment-suppliers-as-partners.aspx . Janet Wagnera, Sabine Benoit. Creating value in retail buyer– There are several ways for the manufacturer to enhance its rela- vendor relationships: A service-centered model [электронный tionships with retailer on a market monopoly. The most eff ective ресурс] []. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar- strategy is the one with a comprehensive approach, including ticle/pii/S pricing and non-pricing methods at the same time. Creating new distribution channels may occur simultaneously too, but it is im- . Connor Gillivan. Supplier Relationships — How Do They Impact portant to take into account the risk of undermining relations Retail? [электронный ресурс] []. URL: http://connorgilli- with the current retailer. However, it may be more favourable de- van.com/supplier-relationships-aff ect-retail/ cision in the long term. . Gadi Benmark, Sebastian Klapdor, Mathias Kullmann, and Ram- ji Sundararajan, How retailers can drive profi table growth R through dynamic pricing [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/how- . Ira Kalish, Vicky Eng, Global Powers of Retailing . retailers-can-drive-profitable-growth-through-dynamic- [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://www.deloitte.com/ pricing global/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/global-powers-of- retailing.html . New Retail [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://new-retail.ru/business/eff ektivnye_kommunikatsii_kak_digital_rekla- ma_vliyaet_na_offl ayn_pokupki/

 Gadi Benmark, Sebastian Klapdor, Mathias Kullmann, and Ramji Sundararajan. How retailers can drive proﬁ table growth through dynamic pricing, . Avail- able at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/how-retailers- can-drive-proﬁ table-growth-through-dynamic-pricing. (Accessed  May ).

   I. M, Q  M C A     mum purchase quantities are common for large brands that have . Eli Tidhar, Jeremy Siegman, Dan Paikowsky, Toward the next a strong foothold in the consumer market. horizon of Industry . [электронный ресурс] []. URL: htt- Outcomes: MPQs help the manufacturer to stay profi table, ps://www.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/focus/industry-–/ maintain a healthy cash fl ow and reduce the inventory. building-capabilities-through-collaborations-startups.html . Kari Alldredge, Brandon Brown, and Max Magni, Playing catch- . Key value indicators up: How to partner with the retailer of the future [электронный Key value items (KVIs)  are usually top sellers, traffi c generators, ресурс] []. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/ or highly-searched stock keeping units whose prices consumers consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/playing-catch-up- tend to remember. Key-value categories can account for up to how-to-partner-with-the-retailer-of-the-future# % of an average retailer’s revenue but only half of its profi t. . Marc Gilbert, Andreas Gocke, Peter Rosenfeld, and Robert Tev- Outcomes: Defi ned KVI’s can boost manufacturer’s earnings elson, Suppliers as Partners: A Catalyst for Savings and improve return on sale rate. [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://www.bcg.com/publications//sourcing-procurement-supply-chain-manage- C ment-suppliers-as-partners.aspx . Janet Wagnera, Sabine Benoit. Creating value in retail buyer– There are several ways for the manufacturer to enhance its rela- vendor relationships: A service-centered model [электронный tionships with retailer on a market monopoly. The most eff ective ресурс] []. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar- strategy is the one with a comprehensive approach, including ticle/pii/S pricing and non-pricing methods at the same time. Creating new distribution channels may occur simultaneously too, but it is im- . Connor Gillivan. Supplier Relationships — How Do They Impact portant to take into account the risk of undermining relations Retail? [электронный ресурс] []. URL: http://connorgilli- with the current retailer. However, it may be more favourable de- van.com/supplier-relationships-aff ect-retail/ cision in the long term. . Gadi Benmark, Sebastian Klapdor, Mathias Kullmann, and Ram- ji Sundararajan, How retailers can drive profi table growth R through dynamic pricing [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/how- . Ira Kalish, Vicky Eng, Global Powers of Retailing . retailers-can-drive-profitable-growth-through-dynamic- [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://www.deloitte.com/ pricing global/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/global-powers-of- retailing.html . New Retail [электронный ресурс] []. URL: https://new-retail.ru/business/eff ektivnye_kommunikatsii_kak_digital_rekla- ma_vliyaet_na_offl ayn_pokupki/

  H — H   

miscalculation of the index and some advices to avoid these mis- Herfendahl — Hirshman index takes. During the work, diff erent practices were found and ana- calculation problem lyzed, examples data was made and then developed into the for diff erent markets check-list which presents cumulative information which would help to avoid possible miscalculations. Key words: Herfendahl-Hirshman index, HH index, marketing, mergers, absorptions

I A P, A S, Herfendahl-Hirshman — the indicator which is used for the as- I D sessment of the industry monopolization. It was named after Or- Students ris Herfendahl and Alberth Hirshmann, who introduced its prior Russian Presidential Academy of National form. Economy and Public Administration To calculate HH index it necessary to wield the information Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences about market shares of the companies, which are presented on the market. After this, the formula would be the following:

  

A L HHI = S  + S  + …+ S n Senior Lecturer S — part of market equity of  company Russian Presidential Academy of National n — number of companies on market Economy and Public Administration After the calculation, it should be compared to the following Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences table: A T . HH index market type HH index Market type Herfendahl-Hirshman index is a common way to ac-  -  free competition cess the level of monopolization in the USA starting - monopolistic competition from . It shows how legal it is to make any - oligopoly mergers or absorption’s by companies. Nowadays it More than  monopoly is widely used in many countries to estimate the market state and solve many judicial proceedings. Nowadays the HH index popularity raised to the worldwide This index helps small companies to develop with- levels. It is used not only in the marketing sphere but many out any concerns that “big players” would easily others, including ethnic levels, population density, etc. Neverthe- consume them or just make bankrupt. Even now less, the disputes across the index are growing and growing —

many mistakes are made by calculating it — and they there are many problems which could occur during the calcula- are not even numeral. This article presents the com- tion and which can lead to poor results. mon practices that are used in countries to calculate To prevent such possibilities, the research was conducted. The HH index, an analysis of problems that could lead to main aim of it was to create a check-list and some advices, which

  H — H   

  

   I. M, Q  M C H — H    could help during the calculation of the index. The main steps of is not necessary to include companies with less than % of mar- the investigation and the check-list with advices are presented ket equity — they would not change the index at all. It is better to below. eliminate them from the index and divide left percent to the higher companies. I   HH  

 Example  — Diff erentiation

In order to deﬁ ne main problems, virtual situations were con- The second one is diff eren- Drugs market structed. tiation. Let us consider the

same example, but with dif- Group of Company D Company E companies Example  — Interception ferent conditions. The same manufacturers,

The fi rst one is related to the interception. There are fi ve drug but however three out of Company A manufacturers on the market (A, B, C, D and E). Each of them has fi ve factories belong to the the same market share. Consequently, the Herfendahl-Hirsh- same investor and are locat- man — Hirschman index will be equal to two thousand, and the ed in diff erent places. Then Company B type of market will be oligopoly. the Herfendahl-Hirshman T . Example  calculations index will be equal to , Company C Market equity Market equity ^  and this is already a monop- Company A %  oly. P . Example  Diff erentiation Company B %  Such a correspondence Company C %  leads us to the second new Company D %  rule — you should check the owners of the companies. By check- Company E %  ing it, you can fi nd that the owner is the same — and in the end, it would come to the completely diff erent type of calculations. Herfendahl —  Hirshman T . Example  calculations index Market equity Market equity ^  Market type Oligopoly Company A B C %  This is a common example of HH index calculation. But even Company D %  on this stage minor mistakes can be conducted. For example, it Company E % 

Herfendahl — Hirshman index  Market type Monopoly Drugs market

Example  — Market split Company А Company B Company C Company D Company E The third example is market split. What if company A recently appeared on the market after research and released a new medicine P . Example  Interception

   I. M, Q  M C H — H    could help during the calculation of the index. The main steps of is not necessary to include companies with less than % of mar- the investigation and the check-list with advices are presented ket equity — they would not change the index at all. It is better to below. eliminate them from the index and divide left percent to the higher companies. I   HH  

 Example  — Diff erentiation

In order to deﬁ ne main problems, virtual situations were con- The second one is diff eren- Drugs market structed. tiation. Let us consider the

same example, but with dif- Group of Company D Company E companies Example  — Interception ferent conditions. The same manufacturers,

Herfendahl — Hirshman index  Market type Monopoly Drugs market

   I. M, Q  M C H — H   

Drugs that has no analogues. Will it com- has an equal market share. market pete with others? It is unlikely, as On this basis, the Herfen- Toy market they are forbidden to produce med- dahl-Hirshman index will New drug Generic icine without possessing a patent. be equal to , which market market Therefore, it is more reasonable corresponds to a mono- to divide them into two markets. poly. Company A Company B Company A Company B On this basis, in the ﬁ rst market, However, what if all (5 points of sail) (15 points of sail) the Herfendahl-Hirshman index the shops of seller B are Company C will be equal to , (Pure mo- franchise sold? Then the nopoly), and in the second, , market will look very dif- P . Example – POS and (Oligopoly). ferent. Franchise market Company D This strategy is related to the T . Example  calculations market tool of positioning — Blue Company E Ocean. You place yourself on the Market equity Market equity ^  market which is completely diff erent Company A %  Company B %  P . Example  Market from the market on which you are split now. This gives a diff erent calcula- Herfendahl — Hirshman index  Market type Monopoly tion — and mostly is unconsidered. T . Example  calculations T . Example  calculations Market equity Market equity ^  Market equity Market equity ^  Company A %  Company A %  Company B %  Herfendahl — Hirshman index  Company B %  Market type Total monopoly Company B %  Market equity Market equity ^  Company B %  Company B %  Company B %  Company C %  Company B %  Company D %  Company B %  Company E %  Company B %  Herfendahl — Hirshman index  Company B %  Market type Oligopoly Company B %  Company B %  Company B %  Example  and  — POS and Franchise market Company B %  The fourth and ﬁ fth examples are applied to the same companies, Company B %  but with completely diff erent conditions. Company B %  Herfendahl There are two main toy sellers on the market — A and B. Sell- — Hirshman index  er A has  points of sale, and Seller B has . Each of the stores Market type Oligopoly, close to monopolistic competition

   I. M, Q  M C H — H   

The market has changed and has even become close to monop- index calculation, but it does not make it ﬁ nal. Even now the HH olistic competition. What a paradox. But it usually happens in our index has some problems which still need further research. This daily life — just check how the small coff ee shops are made by problem still remain vital, because of it high rate of spread among their own and big franchise Starbucks carefully consumes them. all spheres and levels — including political one. That is why it is But the process of competition comes from the diff erent owners, important to continue investigation towards this sphere. what brings to another type of calculation. R C . Kotler, Philip. . Marketing — An introduction. Englewood So, it can be clearly seen that the calculation of the Herfendahl- Cliff s, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Hirshman index is not as simple as it seems at ﬁ rst glance. That . Leonow, Alexander. . Marketing basics. Moscow: Econ-In- is why the following check list and advices were conducted. form. T . Checklist Question Tick box Do all companies apply market you prescribe them? Does any of the companies wield the product hard to copy? Do all the points of sale apply to the same company? Does any of the companies is included in conglomerate?

If any of the boxes is ticked, you should improve the calculation you make.

Advices

. Always check not only product sales, but the revenue too — sometimes it can be a good point to reshape market into diff erent one. . Don’t include companies which wield less than % of equity. This would not help improving the index. It is better to take them off and give the left percent to the higher companies. . Check the monopolization law of the countries. According to it, the level of monopolization can be considered diff erently, what can lead to change in calculation.

R  

As the result of our research a check-list and some advices for better calculation were found. They would help to improve HH

   I. M, Q  M C H — H   

If any of the boxes is ticked, you should improve the calculation you make.

Advices

R  

As the result of our research a check-list and some advices for better calculation were found. They would help to improve HH

  P         Process mining as an advanced I tool for process analysis: Despite the fact that the fi rst mentions of Process Mining start- logistics department case study ed arising as far back as in , it continues being a new and rapidly growing research area of Business Process Management (BPM) even today. The concept behind this toolkit refers to the possibility to discover, analyse and improve existing processes using the data logs extracted from the information of a company A C, G B, or any other type of institutions []. Being a bridge between data mining and conventional meth- Z A ods of BPM, Process Mining is signifi cantly more process-centric Students of Russian Presidential Academy of than the majority of previously employed techniques. The key National Economy and Public Administration diff erence is that it uses sequentially recorded events, which, in Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences its turn, opens up a wide range of innovative algorithms for visualisation, compliance check, etc. E I The aim of this article is to present a real case study involving Head of Management and Entrepreneurship the analysis of the logistics department of an international man- Department of Russian Presidential Academy of ufacturer of domestic appliances. The abovementioned scope of National Economy and Public Administration activity seems to be fundamental for any producing company Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences since it is directly related to its capability of high-quality stock management and salesmanship. Therefore, the results obtained A during the project implementation are of particular value both Supply chain and logistics are the core of modern for future research and practice. producing companies. Any deviations and bottlenecks that take place in this area may cause signif- G      icant repercussions for the whole business. Further-   more, within the modern hectic lifestyle, the conventional methods of analysis and compliance The problem checking are becoming less and less productive and frequently lead to subjective conclusions. This arti- In this article we will provide a thorough description of a project, cle is devoted to the application of process mining the objective of which was to analyse the event logs from the techniques, which are built around completely dif- ERP-system of the Company’s logistics department and identify ferent algorithms and allow to obtain quick and ac- deviations that worsen its effi ciency. curate results on the basis of the data logs extracted from the already existing information systems. The comparison of AS-IS and TO-BE models Key words: process mining, process analysis, business process management, BPM, logistics pro- One of the fi rst steps of the conducted business process analysis cesses was to compare real visualized process with its ideal version. The

  P         Process mining as an advanced I tool for process analysis: Despite the fact that the fi rst mentions of Process Mining start- logistics department case study ed arising as far back as in , it continues being a new and rapidly growing research area of Business Process Management (BPM) even today. The concept behind this toolkit refers to the possibility to discover, analyse and improve existing processes using the data logs extracted from the information of a company A C, G B, or any other type of institutions []. Being a bridge between data mining and conventional meth- Z A ods of BPM, Process Mining is signifi cantly more process-centric Students of Russian Presidential Academy of than the majority of previously employed techniques. The key National Economy and Public Administration diff erence is that it uses sequentially recorded events, which, in Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences its turn, opens up a wide range of innovative algorithms for visualisation, compliance check, etc. E I The aim of this article is to present a real case study involving Head of Management and Entrepreneurship the analysis of the logistics department of an international man- Department of Russian Presidential Academy of ufacturer of domestic appliances. The abovementioned scope of National Economy and Public Administration activity seems to be fundamental for any producing company Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences since it is directly related to its capability of high-quality stock management and salesmanship. Therefore, the results obtained A during the project implementation are of particular value both Supply chain and logistics are the core of modern for future research and practice. producing companies. Any deviations and bottlenecks that take place in this area may cause signif- G      icant repercussions for the whole business. Further-   more, within the modern hectic lifestyle, the conventional methods of analysis and compliance The problem checking are becoming less and less productive and frequently lead to subjective conclusions. This arti- In this article we will provide a thorough description of a project, cle is devoted to the application of process mining the objective of which was to analyse the event logs from the techniques, which are built around completely dif- ERP-system of the Company’s logistics department and identify ferent algorithms and allow to obtain quick and ac- deviations that worsen its effi ciency. curate results on the basis of the data logs extracted from the already existing information systems. The comparison of AS-IS and TO-BE models Key words: process mining, process analysis, business process management, BPM, logistics pro- One of the fi rst steps of the conducted business process analysis cesses was to compare real visualized process with its ideal version. The

   I. M, Q  M C P        

project team was provided with a TO-BE Therefore, it was decided Order model of the process, which demonstrates to fi lter the least frequent 908 how work of the logistics department is paths, which resulted in Delivery expected to be done. As can be seen from the model (Picture ). Sales Order picture , it is mainly linear, i. e. there are Models in pictures  2,465 968 61 no forks, the only fork that can occur takes and  look similar, which Delivery 1,007 Goods Issue place in case of a return. However, this op- means that the majority 2.000 eration is somewhat rare (% of all cases). of orders comply with the 630 Based on the data from the ERP-system, preconceived process. Confirmaion Invoice of service 909 AS-IS model has been created in order to Nevertheless, some devia- 638 describe how the process is really organ- tions still occur. For in- Return GD Goods Issue 25 Order ized. The map of the real process with all stance, action Credit Note 937 631 28 QTY Difference QTY actions and paths is depicted in Picture . takes place after Goods Is- Invoice Credit Note Return Initially, it might seem that models dif- sue in AS-IS model, while 902 50 Delivery 39 3 fer signifi cantly. Nevertheless, these dif- two more actions Return 862 Return Order ferences are caused by the fact that a suf- Order and Return Delivery 43 Credit Price Difference Price Note fi cient number of infrequent connections happen in TO-BE model. are shown in AS-IS model, some of them However, this deviation P . AS-IS model (the most P . TO-BE happen once or twice in all  cases. can be easily explained. frequent paths) model SAP application lacks separate actions for return process, namely Return Delivery and GD 908 Goods Issue. Instead they are marked as regular delivery and write off , which in turn, distorts the visualization of the process. Furthermore, an action called Confi rmation of Service is present Sales Order 1,495 2,465 in the logs, but it is not present in TO-BE model but this diff er- 1 968 61 ence is not a deviation, this action simply occurs automatically, Delivery 1,007 and that is why it is not taken into consideration in TO-BE mode l. 1 2.000 25 10 Discovered loops of actions Delivery and Sales Order are worth 292 mentioning, however, these and other deviations are harder to Credit Note 1 50 28 630 1 1 explain. Consequently, they will be examined in detail in the re- GD Goods Issue 3 10 1 6 937 maining of the article. Return Order 1 277 638 43 46 Confirmaion 2 I-  631 1 39 of service 909 277 Method and deviations Invoice 862 1 902 During the analysis the well-known Pareto or / principle P . AS-IS model (all aspects) was used, and it was decided to divide the data set into  groups.

   I. M, Q  M C P        

T . The most frequent deviations in the logistics process and frequencies 767 148 of their occurrence Deviation Absolute Share in deviant Share in all cases Sales Order Sales Order frequency cases 519(118) 1.765(767) 707(148) . Changes in order  ,% ,% 789(767) 22(22) 1 39 186 . Delivery repetition  ,% ,% Delivery 837(738) Delivery 170(106) 1.626(767) 1 381(147) . The lacks of Confi rmation  ,% ,% 548(548) 25(23) 10 80(73) of service, invoice, return Credit Note Confirmaion 1 order of service 760 50(46) 28 82(81) 1(1)1(1) GD Goods Issue 10(10) 3(3) 1 . Multiple repetitions of  ,% ,% 548(548) 6(6) 937 Return Order Confi rmation of service GD Goods Issue 1(1) 277 638 43(38) 767(767) и GD Goods Issue 46 Confirmaion 2(2) 548(548) 7(7) of service 149 . Repetition of the return  ,% ,% 1(1) 83(83) Invoice Credit Note 39(31) process 760(760) 7(7) 56(56) Invoice 102 1 760 7(7) 142(140)

P . Case division in two groups

The fi rst group contained % of the cases and % of so- called variants, which are basically clusters that unite the cases following the same paths. It covered the most mainstream cases, and this is well illustrated by its visualisation in picture , which is almost identical to the TO-BE model. The second group contained the other % of the cases, which, in their turn, were divided between the % of the variants. As P . Example of a change in an order can be derived from the picture, it mainly consisted of the deviant cases, which will be discussed further. stock. The main reason for such deviations is the diffi culty in Throughout the analysis  diff erent deviations from TO-BE communication with the warehouse that doesn’t allow logisti- model were identifi ed, yet many of them were rejected after the cians to monitor the stock in real time. discussions with the company representatives. The reason for that is because they are normal, but not actually taken into ac- Delivery repetition count by TO-BE model. The rest of the deviations can be seen in It is a sort of a loop, which makes one and the same activity to the table. be triggered several times. Due to the fact that Delivery covers many possible actions in real life, it is actually possible to explain Changes in order its appearance once or twice during a case. In fact, however, there This deviation is an alteration of  activities: Sales Order and De- are cases with ,  and even  Delivery stamps, which defi nitely livery, which is caused by the non-availability of certain goods at need to be examined.

   I. M, Q  M C P        

P . Case division in two groups

The lack of Conﬁ rmation of Service, Invoice and Return Order

About % of the cases that were analysed lacked some of the activities that seem to be necessary for any possible order. Such deviations might be caused by the ERP-system error or by the irreg- ularities in the work of the logisticians.

Multiple repetitions of Conﬁ rmation of service and GD Goods Issue

A curious characteristic of this deviation is that it lasts for a few minutes or even seconds. That’s why, in all likelihood, its cause P . Example of delivery repetition can be found in the ERP-system program code and doesn’t really correlate with the real process. Nevertheless, it does use certain system capacity and can overload it.

Repetition of the return process

It is one of the rarest deviations described yet it causes signiﬁ - cant time delays and deviations from the TO-BE model standards. P . Example of a lack of Conﬁ rmation of Service, Invoice and Return Trying to assess the eff ect of such deviations, the idea of ana- Order lyzing the time diff erence between mainstream and deviant cases occurred, the outcome of which you can see in picture. In short, deviant cases last more than twice as much as mainstream ones and have , times more events. There are some cases, the aston- ishing durations of which are ,  and even  days.

P . Example of Multiple repetitions of Conﬁ rmation of service and GD Goods Issue P . Example of repetition of the return order

   I. M, Q  M C P        

The lack of Conﬁ rmation of Service, Invoice and Return Order

Multiple repetitions of Conﬁ rmation of service and GD Goods Issue

Repetition of the return process

P . Example of Multiple repetitions of Conﬁ rmation of service and GD Goods Issue P . Example of repetition of the return order

   I. M, Q  M C P         deviations occur and have a negative impact on its work. There- 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% fore, we recommend to: Logist 2 • to streamline the communication process between depart- Logist 1 ments, including the unifi cation and aggregation of existing ERP-systems; Logist 6 • to review the existing TO-BE model and add information to Logist 5 it; • to look for incorrect terms and/or loops in the program code Logist 3 of the ERP-system; Logist 4 • to change the user interface in order to prevent an order’s development, if obligatory actions are not performed; Workload share Share of deviant cases • to identify the reasons for the unequal work distribution among logisticians. P . Work distribution among employees and share of deviant cases in their work C T . Time comparison between standard and deviant cases Deviant Standard In this paper the logistics department’s business processes were Median duration (days)  d , d examined using Process Mining techniques. As expected, this Average duration (days)  d , d method turned out to be useful because it allowed to identify a Number of events , , number of overlooked deviations. Furthermore, one of the unique characteristics of this approach are its generality and capability Such fi gures fl atly contradict the company’s standards. There- of being reproduced in the future. Therefore, once implemented fore, in order to maximize the effi ciency of the logistics depart- by a company, this toolkit may also be used in other departments. ment and bolster the company’s reputation, it is necessary to eliminate the possibility of occurrence for such process deviations. A As a fi nal step of the research, the work of the logisticians themselves was analyzed. The result of it can be seen in the picture. The The article itself is a part of the results obtained during the uni- percentage of deviations seems to be pretty similar but the work versity project at the Faculty of economic and social sciences itself is distributed unequally. For instance, logisticians  and  to- (FESS), the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public gether do almost % of the total work. According to the informa- Administration (RANEPA). tion provided by the company representatives, each employee has All the analyses and process visualizations mentioned in the their own accounts, so it is defi nitely not the cause. For this rea- presentation were done with the help of Disco by Fluxicon BV. son, it was believed that this fact required further investigation. R R . Van der Aalst W. M. () Process mining: discovery, conform- Summing up, it should be mentioned that although on the whole ance and enhancement of business processes. Springer. the processes in the department are well-organised, sometimes

   I. M, Q  M C P         deviations occur and have a negative impact on its work. There- 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% fore, we recommend to: Logist 2 • to streamline the communication process between depart- Logist 1 ments, including the unifi cation and aggregation of existing ERP-systems; Logist 6 • to review the existing TO-BE model and add information to Logist 5 it; • to look for incorrect terms and/or loops in the program code Logist 3 of the ERP-system; Logist 4 • to change the user interface in order to prevent an order’s development, if obligatory actions are not performed; Workload share Share of deviant cases • to identify the reasons for the unequal work distribution among logisticians. P . Work distribution among employees and share of deviant cases in their work C T . Time comparison between standard and deviant cases Deviant Standard In this paper the logistics department’s business processes were Median duration (days)  d , d examined using Process Mining techniques. As expected, this Average duration (days)  d , d method turned out to be useful because it allowed to identify a Number of events , , number of overlooked deviations. Furthermore, one of the unique characteristics of this approach are its generality and capability Such fi gures fl atly contradict the company’s standards. There- of being reproduced in the future. Therefore, once implemented fore, in order to maximize the effi ciency of the logistics depart- by a company, this toolkit may also be used in other departments. ment and bolster the company’s reputation, it is necessary to eliminate the possibility of occurrence for such process deviations. A As a fi nal step of the research, the work of the logisticians themselves was analyzed. The result of it can be seen in the picture. The The article itself is a part of the results obtained during the uni- percentage of deviations seems to be pretty similar but the work versity project at the Faculty of economic and social sciences itself is distributed unequally. For instance, logisticians  and  to- (FESS), the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public gether do almost % of the total work. According to the informa- Administration (RANEPA). tion provided by the company representatives, each employee has All the analyses and process visualizations mentioned in the their own accounts, so it is defi nitely not the cause. For this rea- presentation were done with the help of Disco by Fluxicon BV. son, it was believed that this fact required further investigation. R R . Van der Aalst W. M. () Process mining: discovery, conform- Summing up, it should be mentioned that although on the whole ance and enhancement of business processes. Springer. the processes in the department are well-organised, sometimes

   I. M, Q  M C . IEEE () Task force on process mining. Process mining man- Comparative study of certain ifesto. Business process management workshops, Berlin, Heidel- berg: Springer, pp. –. factors determining quality . Rozinat A., van der Aalst W. M. () Conformance testing: assurance in higher education Measuring the ﬁ t and appropriateness of event logs and process between Hungary and Russia models. Business Process Management Workshops, Berlin, Hei- delberg: Springer, pp. –. B H PhD candidate Szent István University, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences Institute of Social Studies and Lecturer Training

K D Visiting Lecturer Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

T M Master lecturer Budapest Business School — University of Applied Sciences Faculty of International Management and Business Institute of Commerce and Marketing

M K Head of Planning and Organization of Educational Process Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

A M University Associate Lecturer Szent István University, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences Institute of Social Studies and Lecturer Training    I. M, Q  M C . IEEE () Task force on process mining. Process mining man- Comparative study of certain ifesto. Business process management workshops, Berlin, Heidel- berg: Springer, pp. –. factors determining quality . Rozinat A., van der Aalst W. M. () Conformance testing: assurance in higher education Measuring the ﬁ t and appropriateness of event logs and process between Hungary and Russia models. Business Process Management Workshops, Berlin, Hei- delberg: Springer, pp. –. B H PhD candidate Szent István University, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences Institute of Social Studies and Lecturer Training

K D Visiting Lecturer Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences

A but for tutor/researcher employees as well, thus promoting the free movement of labour and integration in the member states. After the establishment of its economic union, Europe was indis- At the end of the declaration the signatories called upon the oth- pensable to the actual establishment of its social union. The er member states to join the initiative and they forecasted the main driving force behind the European Higher Education Area necessity of institutionalising the harmonisation of the Europe- was the promotion of mobility among the acceding Member an higher education. (Csekei, L (a)) States through the comparability and acceptance of the diplomas A year later, during the conference organized in Bologna  awarded. To achieve this, the training courses in the higher edu- member states already had joined the invitation and supported cation institutions of the Member States will be regularly moni- the realisation of the initiative by signing the declaration. Fol- tored and evaluated on the basis of the Quality Standards and lowing this event the ministers of education got together about Guidelines for the European Higher Education Area (ESG). In our every two years to fi ne tune the contents of the Bologna Decla- study, we compare the domestic and Russian accreditation pro- ration, to institutionalise the realisation of goals assigned by cedures.  and to be able to establish the EFT, the European Higher Ed- Key words: European Higher Education Area, ESG, quality as- ucation Area. (Csekei, L (b)) surance One of the aims of the establishment of the EFT was to form a European cooperation based on comparable criteria and meth- I ods to be able to synchronise the quality assurance of the Euro- pean Higher Education (Bologna Declaration, ). The en- The compliance to the expectations of today’s fast-paced glo- hanced role of the quality assurance of higher education was fur- balized world poses greater and greater challenges for nations. ther strengthened by the commitment towards quality Establishing the European Union meant not only economic inte- manifested during the second meeting by the ministers in Berlin gration but a political union as well where all citizens of the in . The ministers agreed that a quality assurance system member states of the European Union are entitled to equal rights. was the key to mutual trust, acceptance of the issued degrees as These rights include the free movement of labour also. well as to the encouragement of mobility. The great bottleneck in the practical realization of this prin- It was during this conference that the E, the European Asso- ciple was the inharmonious higher education system whose har- ciation for Quality Assurance in Higher Education (ENQA), the monisation processes started in the s and the Bologna Dec- European University Association (EUA), the European Associa- laration signed at the end of the millennium can be regarded as tion of Institutions in Higher Education (EURASHE) and the Eu- its pinnacle. ropean Students’ Union (ESU) were asked to prepare for the next Sorbonne University celebrated its  years of existence in meeting a standardised qualifi cation credit system accepted by  and in the framework of this celebration four leading Euro- all member states of the European Union. Fulfi lling the request pean states issued a joint declaration which became known as the and meeting the deadline specifi ed a document was drawn up, Sorbonne Declaration. In this statement it was stipulated that the Standards and Guidelines for Quality Assurance in the Euro- Europe can only pick up the pace the competitors dictate if it be- pean Higher Education Area, hereinafter referred to as ESG. Thus comes the Europe of knowledge and it harmonises the work be- due to the Bologna process the ESG was prepared by  and by ing done in the institutions of higher education and not just establishing the registry of quality assurance agencies the insti- dealing with the issues of politics and economics. This harmoni- tutionalisation of cooperation has started in the specialization of sation would open the option of mobility not only for students quality assurance (Csekei, L. (c)).

   I. M, Q  M C C      

M   mentioned the following changes: it became clearer and more standardized and easily interpreted by consistently separating The examined issues are analysed and discussed empirically in the document standards and guidelines and the main concepts. this material partly by processing related professional literature The main structure of the standards and guidelines did not sources, partly by observation carried out as participants of the change (Part ), but regarding the content and wording some educational and operational processes in the Hungarian and Rus- changes have been made. Furthermore, a few new ones were add- sian institutions of higher education, furthermore by analysing ed (e. g. . Student-oriented learning, teaching and evaluation). the experiences obtained by following the accreditation process- When assessing the changes, we can state that as a result the es of Hungarian and Russian institutions of higher education, as standards and guidelines became more deﬁ ned and transparent well as examining documents related to the topic. During the re- and these facilitate the achievement of the goals for the next pe- search qualitative analysis also took place by applying the inter- riod of the EFT. (ESG, ) view method. According to the expectations of the ESG the revision and reorganization of the Russian accreditation system has started. As R the newest element of the reform series of the education system in the Russian Federation which has been in progress for years, As a result of the processes induced by the Bologna Declaration the reorganization of the work of the Ministry of Education and after six years in Bergen () the framework of Standards and Science started in May . Within this process the primary ed- Guidelines of Quality Assurance in the European Higher Educa- ucation and secondary education were separated as the ﬁ rst step. tion Area was approved, which ensured the standardized accred- Two new and separate ministries were established: the Ministry itation of EFT institutions of higher education in the following of Education is responsible for primary and secondary education decade. In  during the last meeting of the ministers in Yere- and the Ministry of Science and Higher Education oversees the van the substantially renewed ESG, based on the experiences col- activities in higher education in the Russian Federation. Next, in lected in the last ten years, was approved. (Kováts, G. — Temesi, J., July  the Federal Service for Supervision in Education and ) Science (Rosobrnadzor) was separated from the ministries and it The communiqué issued by the ministers of education pre- operates as an organizational unit directly reporting to the gov- sented the results of the meeting in Yerevan and they were ex- ernment. pressed in the following policies: • Enhancing the quality and relevance of learning and teach- T     H ing     B P • Fostering the employability of graduates throughout their Following the change of regime the number of students entering working lives into higher education as well as the number of tutors began to in- • Making our systems more inclusive (social sensitising) crease at the same time. Due to this change education became • Implementing agreed structural reforms somewhat operational which called for establishing new educa- (Yerevan Communiqué, ) tional methods (e. g. distance learning). With the purpose of avoid- In the introduction of the Hungarian version the changes of the ing the deterioration of the quality of education due to the sud- new framework were summarized by Tibor Szántó. Without giv- den changes of external circumstances, the Act LXXX of  on ing a very detailed explanation here, we can highlight that he Higher Education established the National Accreditation Commit-

   I. M, Q  M C C      

tee (a bit later the Hungarian Accredita- carrying out of the regular (earlier eight years, from  ﬁ ve tion Committee, abbreviated as MAB years) quality assurance procedure MAB establishes a profession- (Figure ). According to Article  para- al visiting committee which consists of educational and research graph () the task of the Committee is professionals and representatives of students. The committee ex- ‘the continuous monitoring of higher amines the self-evaluating reports and pertaining documents and

F . The logo of the education, the standard of scientifi c ac- then has an onsite visit (– days depending on the size of the Hungarian Accreditation tivity and certifi cation’ to ensure the ex- institution). Following the visit, the evaluation report is prepared Committee ternal quality assurance of the institu- which is presented to and is discussed by an ad hoc board and tions. According to Article  paragraph then by a Plenum/Body ( members of the MAB). After the ap- () of Act CCIV of  ‘MAB is an independent national body of proval of the report a resolution is made. professionals which was set up for the external evaluation of the In Hungary the operational permits of institutions in higher training, scientifi c research, artistic activities and the operation of education are inspected by the Ministry of Education (OH) and if inner quality assurance system of the institutions of higher edu- compliance to the rules is decided then a new permit is issued cation and it participates as a body of experts in the procedures and this process repeats every fi ve years. Part of the process in- concerning the institutions of higher education according to the cludes that for OH it is obligatory to request the expert opinion regulations of the pertaining law’. Furthermore, its tasks and au- of MAB about the institution which opinion is formulated by and thority as well as its structure are described in Article  and . based on regulated procedures according to the European quali- The Government Decree / (II.) pertaining to the is- ty assurance standards in higher education (ESG). If during the sues of quality assurance and development declares that MAB is investigation process an institution in higher education does not a non-profi t professional body which carries out the quality as- receive satisfactory qualifi cation, the renewal of the operational surance of trainings in institutions of higher education and ac- permit is not issued and the institution cannot continue its op- credits those according to ESG. eration (Act CCIV of ). In its twenty-fi ve years of existence MAB has carried out the During the accreditation process the visiting committee exam- accreditation of the whole set of institutions in the Hungarian ines if the contents of the Act pertaining to Higher Education are higher education according to the regulations in a systematic adhered to in the given institution of higher education and way and in more ‘rounds’. In the profession these are called ac- whether the requirements of ESG are fulfi lled paying special at- creditation cycles. Three of these had already closed and accord- tention to the extent of student satisfaction. Among the basic ing to the accreditations started due to the changes of ESG in principles of accreditation there are independence, objectivity  the fourth cycle has started. and professional impeccability. The process itself must be verifi - The accreditations in the fi rst cycle were conducted between able, the results must be public and last but not least the stand-  and  and the institutions were mostly accredited for ards must be in accordance with international practice. eight years but some of them were accredited for shorter periods. Since MAB was established — besides institution accredita-

The second cycle of accreditation was carried out between  tion — it has carried out program accreditation procedures simul- and  (from  it was carried out according to the ESG), taneously by the requests of controlling bodies, which includes then in the autumn of  the third accreditation of institutions the detailed and professional quality assurance examination of started. the training programmes of a certain scientiﬁ c ﬁ eld (parallel ac- The institutions must pay attention to the validity of the accreditation) extended to the whole country and carried out si- creditation and apply for extensions when needed and for the multaneously. When drawing up the new accreditation procedure

   I. M, Q  M C C      

MAB was determined to have the institutional and programme the Federal Service for Supervision accreditation requirements to be fulfi lled within the framework in Education and Science. of one procedure. (www.mab.hu) The aim of the state accreditation of educational activities is to T      strengthen the compliance to the   R F federal state educational norms in the educational activities of the ed- There are two parallel systems in the accreditation of institutes ucational programs and education- F . The emblem of the in higher education in the Russian Federation. Besides the state al organizations. The state accredi- Federal Service for Supervision accreditation a professional public accreditation is also available. tation of educational activities is in Education and Science The two systems diff er in several ways. While the state accredi- executed according to the main ed- tation is geared for investigating whether the institution com- ucational programs specifi ed in the federal state educational plies with the Russian educational standards, the professional ac- norms. The aim of the accreditation process is to defi ne whether creditation aims at defi ning those accomplishments which high- the content and quality of the training program complies with light the outstanding result achieved in the educational and the standards of state accreditation programs and the federal scientifi c fi eld. This accreditation is based on the Russian stand- state education. During the accreditation process of the training ard as well as on the principles of the ESG. The accreditation programs accreditation expert inspections are not held (this be- committee consists of foreign professionals who represent not longs in the jurisdiction of the body which establishes education- only the scientifi c community but the profession and the stu- al standards — ФГОС — the Russian state system of standards). dents’ interests as well. Accreditations are carried out for entire institutions and individ- The state accreditation of educational institutions was fi rst ual faculties or specializations cannot be examined and accred- stipulated in a federal act on education issued in  (.. ited on their own. № –). Since then the system of accreditation has been re- We would like to present the accreditation process in the Rus- vised on many occasions but its importance was preserved. The sian Federation by showing the results of our quantitative re- system of accreditation constitutes an integral part of the con- search. The interview was made with Margarita Kozlova at her in- cept included in the Russian Federal Program of Education and stitution who is an employee of the RANEPA Faculty of Econom- Development for the time period of – since ’develop- ics and Social Sciences after fi nishing the latest accreditation ment of the quality assurance system of the secondary and high- process in . er education via the assessment of the independent accreditation The institution applies for the process of accreditation by fi ll- and the quality of programs in education means the assurance of ing in an application form. The application has to be turned in the the execution of accreditation mechanism in vocational and pub- previous year thus providing enough time for preparation. The lic education’ (Federal Educational Development Program, – Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science consid- ). ers the application in a few weeks and the offi cial accreditation The Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science process starts from the receipt of the information notice. The (РОСОБРНАДЗОР — Figure ) which was established in  is preparation is in progress simultaneously at the institution by responsible for education and sciences and similarly for the exe- checking the compliance with the requirement list issued by the cution of accreditation tasks. The regulation of its operation was Federal Service, and at the Federal Service where the public data renewed on th July in  by issuing the latest regulations of of the institution is examined approximately in one month. The

   I. M, Q  M C C      

Service continues the examination with onsite inspection and for • ESG serves as the foundation of conducting the processes this event a visiting committee is formed. During the process the • In both countries an independent institution system con- committee examines if the institution and its subunits fulfi l the ducts the accreditation processes requirements of the state which are stipulated in the Law on Ed- • The accreditation processes include onsite inspections be- ucation. The visiting committee forms an opinion based on the sides the document examination online and onsite inspections and other opinions which are sent • Under the umbrella of one accreditation process the inspec- to the Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science. tion of viewpoints of institutional operation and profes- Then they make a decision about the accreditation process wheth- sional aspects are examined simultaneously er it was successful or it had a negative outcome. • The members of the onsite visiting committee are recog- If the process of accreditation has a positive outcome, the in- nized professionals in the fi elds whose profi les fi t the spe- spected institution receives a six-year permit/accreditation reso- cialization of the inspected institute and they are aware of lution. the quality assurance policies of higher education If the process of accreditation has a negative outcome, the Ser- • The institutions themselves must initiate the accreditation vice chooses from the options below: process • The costs of the accreditation process are borne by the in- • Carries out an ’unplanned’ inspection again, and forms an stitutions opinion again • Might terminate the operation of the institution While carrying out our research we considered the diff erences as • Or it withdraws the accreditation of the institution (in this well: case the institution can continue its operation as a non-accredited institution but the degrees issued during this pe- • The Russian accreditation process is static in its character, riod of time cannot be accepted as qualifi cation of higher it examines issues at the given moment, the institutions do education). not have to conduct a preliminary self-assessment and turn If the accreditation process has a positive outcome, the inspect- that in to the organization of accreditation ed institution receives a certifi cation for six years which is the • In the Hungarian accreditation process the procedure is basis of the issuance of state recognized degrees. Training cours- based on the self-assessment of the inspected institution es which are started and continued without a successful state ac- pertaining to the past fi ve years of operation and on the in- creditation do not result in providing qualifi cations of higher ed- formation found on public platforms which is amended by ucation since the institution which fails the accreditation process information gathered by onsite visits cannot be considered as an institution of higher education. • Diff erent validity period of the accreditation (in Hungary it is fi ve years, in Russia it is  years) C,  • The level of commitment to the fulfi lment of ESG criteria is diff erent, in Hungary is it stronger As a conclusion of our research we can state that the accredita- • In the Russian Federation institutions need the successful tion processes in institutions of higher education in Russia and accreditation for keeping their permits for operation but as in Hungary have several similarities: opposed to Hungary the minimum requirement is the ad- herence to the Russian accreditation norms and not adhe- • The operation of institutions of higher education must be rence to the ESG. licensed

   I. M, Q  M C C      

   I. M, Q  M C C       https://tka.hu/nemzetkozi//bolognai-folyamat-es-az-eu- • Regarding the results of accreditation processes carried out by MAB the institutions receive not only a resolution but a ropai-felsooktatasi-terseg--ig#Pr%C%Aga professional opinion also, as well as suggestions for the . Russian Federal Program of Education and Development (– continuous development and facilitation of the principles ) of the ESG. As opposed to this the Federal Service for Su- . Bologna Declaration http://www.nefmi.gov.hu/felsooktatas/tu- pervision in Education and Science issues only a resolution dastar/bolognai-nyilatkozat but does not provide recommendations for further development for the institutions. . Quality Standards and Guidelines for the European Higher Ed- ucation Area (ESG ) https://enqa.eu/indirme/esg/ESG% As a result of our research we have shed light on the fact that be- in%Hungarian_by%OFI-HAC.pdf tween the accreditation procedures of the two countries there are . Yerevan Communique,  https://tka.hu/hir//jerevani- several diff erences, out of which the most signiﬁ cant is manifest- kommunike ed in the need to conform to the criteria of the ESG. Despite the fact that Russia is a major player in the European Higher Educa- . Federal Act on Education (.. № –) tion Area and applying the ESG is equally mandatory for all mem- . /. (II. .) Korm. Rendelet a felsőoktatási minőségértékelés ber states, the application of the practice of conforming to the és -fejlesztés egyes kérdéseiről ESG requirements in Russia is not as well-developed as it is in . . évi LXXX. törvény a felsőoktatásról Hungary. .  évi CCIV. törvény a nemzeti felsőoktatásról In order to facilitate the educational/researcher and student . Oktatási Törvény,  Федеральный закон «Об образовании mobility the Russian Federation recognized the need for devel- в Российской Федерации» от .. № – oping its mandatory state accreditation system which is clearly manifested in the changes instigated in  where the fulﬁ l- . MAB website www.mab.hu ment of the expectations of ESG now has greater importance.

R

. Kováts Gergely- Temesi József (): A magyar felsőoktatás egy évtizede –. NFKK Kötetek, . Budapest Corvinus Egyetem Nemzetközi Felsőoktatási Kutatások Központja, Buda- pest. . Csekei László (a): A bolognai folyamat előzményei https://tka. hu/nemzetkozi//a-bolognai-folyamat-elozmenyei Csekei László (b): A Bolognai Nyilatkozat és az európai felsőa felelős az akkreditációk lebonyolításoktatás https://tka.hu nemzetkozi//a-bolognai-nyilatkozat-es-az-europai-felsooktatas . Csekei László (c): A Bolognai Nyilatkozattól az Európai Felsőoktatási Térségig (-ig): a bolognai folyamat

   I. M, Q  M C C       https://tka.hu/nemzetkozi//bolognai-folyamat-es-az-eu- • Regarding the results of accreditation processes carried out by MAB the institutions receive not only a resolution but a ropai-felsooktatasi-terseg--ig#Pr%C%Aga professional opinion also, as well as suggestions for the . Russian Federal Program of Education and Development (– continuous development and facilitation of the principles ) of the ESG. As opposed to this the Federal Service for Su- . Bologna Declaration http://www.nefmi.gov.hu/felsooktatas/tu- pervision in Education and Science issues only a resolution dastar/bolognai-nyilatkozat but does not provide recommendations for further development for the institutions. . Quality Standards and Guidelines for the European Higher Ed- ucation Area (ESG ) https://enqa.eu/indirme/esg/ESG% As a result of our research we have shed light on the fact that be- in%Hungarian_by%OFI-HAC.pdf tween the accreditation procedures of the two countries there are . Yerevan Communique,  https://tka.hu/hir//jerevani- several diff erences, out of which the most signiﬁ cant is manifest- kommunike ed in the need to conform to the criteria of the ESG. Despite the fact that Russia is a major player in the European Higher Educa- . Federal Act on Education (.. № –) tion Area and applying the ESG is equally mandatory for all mem- . /. (II. .) Korm. Rendelet a felsőoktatási minőségértékelés ber states, the application of the practice of conforming to the és -fejlesztés egyes kérdéseiről ESG requirements in Russia is not as well-developed as it is in . . évi LXXX. törvény a felsőoktatásról Hungary. .  évi CCIV. törvény a nemzeti felsőoktatásról In order to facilitate the educational/researcher and student . Oktatási Törvény,  Федеральный закон «Об образовании mobility the Russian Federation recognized the need for devel- в Российской Федерации» от .. № – oping its mandatory state accreditation system which is clearly manifested in the changes instigated in  where the fulﬁ l- . MAB website www.mab.hu ment of the expectations of ESG now has greater importance.

R

  Q  R — L    ESG started in , can be related to the Ministerial Conference Bu-

Quality and Responsibility — dapest-Vienna in , that is the offi cial the launch time of the Lessons learnt from the ESG EHEA. This does not mean, of course, that all the objectives of  based institute the Bologna Process in each of the acceding countries were fully met by . accreditation for higher But it can be taken as a fact that the higher educational insti- educational institutions tutions of the member countries have put a great force in the past one and a half decade into developing quality assurance systems, that are aligned with the Standards and Guidelines for Quality A M Assurance in the European Higher Education Area (ESG). University Associate Lecturer Szent István In May , at the ministerial meeting in Armenia, Yerevan, University, Faculty of Economics and Social the ESG  criteria system was revised and adopted based on Sciences Institute of Social Studies and Lecturer a decade of experience of application, published as an ESG  Training document. The study highlights the novelty of the new ESG requirements B H for higher education institutions and the diffi culties they face in PhD candidate implementing accreditation procedures (both institutions and Szent István University, Faculty of Economics accreditation bodies). and Social Sciences Key words: higher education, quality, quality assurance, accreditation Institute of Social Studies and Lecturer Training

I T M Master lecturer ESG sets standards and guidelines for the quality assurance of Budapest Business School — University of Applied higher education in the internal and external ﬁ eld. ESG does not Sciences Faculty of International Management mean speciﬁ c quality standards, nor does it specify how quality and Business Institute of Commerce and assurance processes are applied; instead, it serves as a guideline Marketing in all areas that are essential for quality service and learning environment in higher education. K D The ESG covers all higher education activities, regardless of the Visiting Lecturer mode and location of the studies. So the ESG can be applied to all Russian Presidential Academy of National types of higher education, including transnational and cross-bor- Economy and Public Administration der services. The ESG can be interpreted in a broad context, which Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences creates the basis for transparency in higher education and A strengthens mutual trust in the European Higher Education Area. ESG is basically about quality assurance in learning and teach- The creation of the European Higher Education ing in higher education. It covers the learning environment and Area (EHEA), as a result of the Bologna process that relevant links to research and innovation.

  Q  R — L    ESG started in , can be related to the Ministerial Conference Bu-

   I. M, Q  M C Q  R — L    ESG

Standards set the quality assurance practice for higher educa- also institutions that carry out church and religious training in tion adopted in the European Higher Education Area; therefore, the sample. In terms of their size, the examined institutions have standards should be taken into account and respected by all a student population of between  and , based on the stakeholders in all types of higher education. number of students. In Hungary, according to the accreditation practice in the countries of the European Higher Education Area, the Hungari- R   an Accreditation Committee (HAC) examines compliance with ESG standards in the framework of the institution accreditation The ESG  standard is divided into three parts: procedure. • internal quality assurance (ie standards and guidelines for The institutional accreditation process focuses on a meaning- higher education institutions), ful self-assessment by the higher education institutions, which • external quality assurance, is an eff ective tool for the institution’s internal quality improve- • quality assurance agencies. ment and at the same time provides the basis for the quality assurance and quality assessment activities of the HAC. These three parts are organically intertwined and together form The purpose of self-assessment is to analyze the quality of ed- the European quality assurance framework. The external quality ucation, research, creative work, social success, the self-critical assurance described in Part  takes into account the internal analysis of the functioning of the institution, to show its values, quality standards set out in Part  to ensure that the quality as- to reveal its problems, to gather the systematic information surance activities of the higher education institution are direct- needed to plan the next steps of institution building. ly relevant to the quality assurance performed by external organizations. Similarly, part  returns to Part . M   The three parts therefore work in complementarity, in higher education institutions as well as quality assurance agencies, and Examining the topic in an empirical approach, basically discuss- also assume that other stakeholders can contribute to the frame- ing the related literature and legal sources and discussing it in work. Consequently, the three parts should be read and applied the present material. This is complemented by the processing of as a single whole. their experience gained through the monitoring of accreditation During the research our conclusions have been formulated procedures for higher education institutions and the analysis of only on the fi rst part of ESG : Standards and Guidelines for related documents. Institutional Internal Quality Assurance. It was possible to collect and analyze data and information in In the following sections, we list the factors that have emerged the case of  institutions out of  higher education institutions as areas, weaknesses to be developed during the accreditation operating in Hungary (the sample provides % representativity). process, both by the institutions and by the participants in the The results and fi ndings of this study are based on the analysis accreditation process. of the fi nal documents of the accreditation process based on the “new type”, ie ESG  requirements, carried out in the years ESG . and . Policy for quality assurance and Cyclical external – by HAC. quality assurance

The higher education institutions included in the study — in

terms of their training portfolio — operate in the ﬁ elds of agricul- • There is no uniform, mature deﬁ nition of quality in higher ture, economics and technical and social sciences, but there are education.

   I. M, Q  M C Q  R — L    ESG

The higher education institutions included in the study — in

• Higher education institutions are mainly characterized by • Missing harmony of portfolio and human resources. ISO -standard quality management systems, but there • Program accreditation and licensing are not always harmo- is still a lack of consistency between ISO  and ESG  nized. (knowledge and training of the latter is still incomplete). • To be developed: • The PDCA is known, but the application of the Check and — stakeholder relations for developing practical education Act phases is still incomplete. (businesses, alumni, graduate career tracking system) • Process approach and systemic operation are incomplete. — publicity of educational content and subject require-

• Quality Assurance and Quality Management — „splendid ments (on-line accessibility) isolation” — correct accountability system in line with the orienta- • Leadership commitment is not pronounced. tion of the educational program • Quality Department • The practice of using ﬂ exible learning and assessment so- • its location is “unworthy” and its reputation low lutions is moderate. • senior management support is low • Moderate awareness of the principles, expectations and • cooperation with other departments would be desirable measurement of competence-based training. • One-person quality responsibility is dominant. • Quality Policy and Goals are not well communicated (inter- ESG . Student-centred learning, teaching and assessment nally and externally). • Lack of consistency among quality goals, strategic goals • The means of student motivation is incomplete (mentor- and development plan. ing). • Existing quality goals are not measurable. • The eff ectiveness and representation of student evaluation • Insulated faculty systems and operation although ESG  of teaching is very low (on-line?), practically useless for de- expect institutional quality assurance. velopment purposes. • Reﬂ ection on the development proposals of the previous • The feedback of student evaluation of teaching is incom- accreditation procedure is lacking. plete — resulting in low level of motivation. • Wordy quality documentation and policies. • There is hardly any institutional-level knowledge platform, • Higher educational and ESG references of external accred- the institutional linking of talent management practices is itation specialists are incomplete. missing. • The development of service and infrastructure development ESG . and . Design and approval of programmes and On-going based on student needs, should be improved. monitoring and periodic review of programmes • Under-regulated student complaint management (not on whole institution level), no “client satisfaction” measure- • The teacher-student ratio is uneven and the deviation is ment of it.

high (. to  students / teacher). • Analysis and feedback of exam results are incomplete, the • The framework for a healthy and sustainable training port- unifi ed metrics of the subject fulfi llment are unfi nished. folio based on regular feedback from stakeholders is miss- • Institutional regulatory background (and training) of pro- ing. fessional credit allocation is incomplete. • Responsibilities of program heads for quality management • Exam equity (suffi cient and evenly distributed exam time, and development is not clearly defi ned. other instructor, written-oral exchange).

   I. M, Q  M C Q  R — L    ESG

• Teachers’ pedagogical skills and language skills can be im- ing sabbaticals and international exchange initiatives. proved. • The requirements of recruitment and promotion of teach- • Shortcomings of credit recognition (unregulated, untrained, ing staff are neither public nor clearly and transparently inconsistent, uneven). regulated. • Additions to institutional regulations are sometimes redun- • There is no conscious, comprehensive education policy and dant, non-specifi c. system for teaching staff . • The system of preferential study arrangements is not uni- • The organization of specifi c career models (researcher, form. teacher, practical teacher) into workshops is not fi nalized. • Institutional sharing of best practices for dealing with drop- • The faculty practices and systems of performance evalua- outs is incomplete. tion are diff erent and there is no unifi ed institutional framework. ESG . Student admission, progression, recognition and • MTMT documentation of academic activity and citation of certifi cation trainers is not up to date. • Incentives to encourage and support academic staff partic- • The reason for the high level of not issued diplomas due to ipation at trainings and conferences are inadequate. the lack of language exam is unknown, therefore the suc- • Institutional employee satisfaction measurement and eval- cess rate of actions taken to terminate them is accidental — uation systems are underdeveloped. missing system. • Educational-methodological, pedagogical and research • Application management systems and methods and their skills of educators need to be improved. payment obligations are outdated and not student-friendly. The intention to revise and develop them is minimal. ESG . Learning resources and student support • Mobility windows are scarce, credit recognition processes are complicated. • Not enough language and language exam preparation and • Missing mobility focused motivation system. catch-up courses. • Accurate, up-to-date communication system or database re- • Library shortcomings: number of copies, fl exible opening garding the relevant rules for foreign students is missing. ours. • The number of foreign language courses is limited, and the • IT shortcomings: wifi , outdated hardware background, not encouragement of local student involvement is lacking. enough free software. • Students` dining options are not always provided. ESG . Teaching staff • Sometimes the student demand for more and more practical courses is not met. • No traces of conscious HR focusing on providing suffi cient • Multi-campus institutions have unequal infrastructural ser- amount and academic level of teaching staff to insure im- vice levels. proved proportion of professors and highly qualifi ed lead • The system of institutional rules for judging social scholar- instructors. ships does not always ensure equal opportunities for stu- • Missing conscious HR system for effi cient support of the dents. tracking of stages of degree process. • There is no uniform perception of public activities. • Missing HR support for planning, supporting and motivat- • Student demand for career services, mental health and psy-

   I. M, Q  M C Q  R — L    ESG

chic counselling services is increasing, but diffi cult to serve. • Public information on learning and success rates and the • Uneven quality of sports facilities. location of graduates should be expanded. • Accessibility is lacking at many points. • Study administration processes can be made more up-to- C date, faster, and better (mostly IT-based). In conclusion, the following development proposals were formu- ESG . Information management lated and drawn up on the basis of the studies carried out for higher education institutions. • Uniform querying capabilities for information in diff erent • In addition (instead of?) the very powerful, traditional fac- databases are limited in some cases, their development is ulty approach, overall quality policy, quality strategy, qual- needed. ity approach. Institutional leadership should strongly be • The management information systems required for mana- committed to quality representation and communication. gerial decisions are at diff erent levels of development and • The principal focus of ESG  is to ensure that accredit- their development is desirable. ed institutions issue diplomas of accredited educational • Gaps in the integration of databases and access. programs. Contradictory, if not accredited courses are held • Institutions do a lot of measurements, but their use in de- in the portfolio. cision-making and closing of the PDCA cycle is in many • Internalize the perception that the institution is responsi- cases not or not at the right levels. ble for quality (the institution initiates, consciously devel- • The dilemma of paper-based and electronic-based measure- ops the PDCA cycle). ment effi ciency. • The speciﬁ c quality assurance system needs to be selected and developed according to the size and capabilities of the ESG . Public information institution — by adapting the ESG  principles. • A uniform quality assurance system is needed at institu- • It would be desirable to coordinate the content of the web- tional level. sites, and to strengthen the single image in case of multi- • High positioning of quality assurance within the institution faculty institutions (Corporate Handbook). (directly reporting to the rector) and corporate manage- • There is a clear need for modern, up-to-date, informative, ment. easy-to-use, up-to-date websites. • Continuous, institutionalized training of managers and • The need for maximum compliance with data protection re- quality professionals is required. quirements for public information (GDPR). • Adopting external best-practices, recognizing and celebrat- • Easy, quick access to up-to-date, public, multilingual infor- ing internal best-practices. mation related to institutional operation is required. • Exploiting the potential of digitalization, digital literacy, • Training programs and subject requirements are not always Big Data and IT. publicly available throughout the whole institution. • Expected to promote mutual accessibility of partners ‘and Experience gained during these accreditation processes, the de- stakeholders’ websites (in particular: dual training). tected observations and weaknesses can serve as guidelines for • There are diff erences in publication of analysis of diff erent those institutions, that are operating in the EHEA and are will- student surveys and evaluations (publicity, feedback!). ing to comply with the accreditation requirements of ESG .

   I. M, Q  M C Q  R — L    ESG

   I. M, Q  M C R Managing Educational Projects:

. Standards and Guidelines for Quality Assurance in the Europe- Cloud Solutions for Workﬂ ow an Higher Education Area (ESG). (). https://enqa.eu/wp- Automation content/uploads///ESG_.pdf . Self-assessment guide (). Hungarian Higher Education Ac- creditation Committee. Budapest. http://www.mab.hu/web/doc/ akkreditacio/OnertUtmut_Intakkr.pdf . http://www.mab.hu/web/index.php?option=com_content&view =article&id=&Itemid=&lang=hu O M Associate Professor . http://www.mab.hu/web/index.php?option=com_content&view Russian Presidential Academy of National =article&id=&Itemid=&lang=hu Economy and Public Administration .  CCIV. Act on National Higher Education https://net.jogtar. Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences hu/jogszabaly?docid=A.TV A O Associate Professor Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences A

The present paper describes a workﬂ ow automation framework designed for managing educational projects at FESS, RANEPA. The framework consists of the following integral parts: artifacts, processes and documentation. Keywords: PMBoK, project workﬂ ow automation, educational projects, project team management, artifacts, processes, documentation.

I

Educational programs, both bachelor and master, usually encompass diff erent sort of projects, be it real-life or instructional ones. Such training models as individual or group design projects are conducive

   I. M, Q  M C R Managing Educational Projects:

I

   I. M, Q  M C M E P to developing hard and soft skills and acquiring hands-on expe- In terms of scope, educational projects may be narrow-focused, rience in the fi eld of interest. They facilitate self-directed learn- intended to master skills on a single subject (e. g. a teamwork on ing, learning-by-doing and learning-by-interaction, promote fi nancial analysis) or comprehensive, encompassing interdiscipli- knowledge spillovers and result in synergetic eff ects for all par- nary studies (e. g. a group design graduation paper or a business ties involved in the process. Implementing project approach to plan containing market research, business-process engineering education helps build up links between academia and business, and fi nancial modelling). Since preparing a project is a way of self- international relationships and knowledge transfer between directed learning, it helps students train practical application of countries. Such an approach to education can be used in diff er- theoretical concepts covered in the subject. Moreover, an impor- ent fi elds, though it requires basic project management skills tant tutorial goal pursued by project approach to education is from both students and teaching staff . Organizing workfl ow in building up teamwork skills. Each member of a project team has educational projects appears to be a labor-consuming matter. his or her own roles and responsibilities and contribute to the fi - That is the reason why workfl ow automation becomes an issue of nal project result. Some project goals can be achieved indepen- utmost importance nowadays. dently; nevertheless, overall performance depends on collective According to PMBOK standard, a project is a temporary en- work and interaction between team members. It is especially the deavour undertaken to create a unique result []. Two main pro- case for comprehensive projects where team members accomplish ject properties stem from this defi nition: diff erent functions and one member’s outputs become inputs for the others. Henceforth, an eff ective work breakdown and person- • Temporary character: each project has a predefi ned begin- al contribution tracking are of utmost importance, as well as en- ning and ending linked to one of the following conditions: abling cooperation, coordination and communication. — the aim of the project has been achieved; — there is no possibility that the aim be achieved; — there is no need to continue the project. P   :    FESS, • Uniqueness: a project is aimed at an idiosyncratic objec- RANEPA tive and its results diff er from the analogues. Sometimes The Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences (FESS) specializes in to accomplish a singular goal one needs to bring together management education and possesses many years of experience people who do not usually come across each other, who ac- and track record in implementing project approach to education. complish diff erent functions and have diff erent competen- One of the main competitive advantages is working in small teams, cies. which fosters group interaction, empowerment and taking respon- For the purpose of the present paper, we defi ne an educational sibility. Currently the following projects are in execution. project as one whose main objective is to prepare a piece of aca- The need for workfl ow automation is largely due to the in- demic writing (paper, article, report, executive summary etc.) creasing number of students and projects executed. Changing la- usually subject to further defense in viva voce. Thus, such a pro- bour market requirements force the faculty to implement new ject is always time-bound since its completion period is stipulat- types of projects (especially business-academia collaboration and ed by the curriculum, and has unique results. Here, uniqueness international projects) and to broaden their scope. Therefore, a means that each work is to be done independently, has an objec- number of problems arise, for instance: tive, is idiosyncratic and no plagiarism is allowed. A standardized • Low transparency and bad traceability. Project execution structure of the work does not contradict uniqueness of the re- was similar to a black box: a supervisor and administration sult in this sense.

   I. M, Q  M C M E P to developing hard and soft skills and acquiring hands-on expe- In terms of scope, educational projects may be narrow-focused, rience in the fi eld of interest. They facilitate self-directed learn- intended to master skills on a single subject (e. g. a teamwork on ing, learning-by-doing and learning-by-interaction, promote fi nancial analysis) or comprehensive, encompassing interdiscipli- knowledge spillovers and result in synergetic eff ects for all par- nary studies (e. g. a group design graduation paper or a business ties involved in the process. Implementing project approach to plan containing market research, business-process engineering education helps build up links between academia and business, and fi nancial modelling). Since preparing a project is a way of self- international relationships and knowledge transfer between directed learning, it helps students train practical application of countries. Such an approach to education can be used in diff er- theoretical concepts covered in the subject. Moreover, an impor- ent fi elds, though it requires basic project management skills tant tutorial goal pursued by project approach to education is from both students and teaching staff . Organizing workfl ow in building up teamwork skills. Each member of a project team has educational projects appears to be a labor-consuming matter. his or her own roles and responsibilities and contribute to the fi - That is the reason why workfl ow automation becomes an issue of nal project result. Some project goals can be achieved indepen- utmost importance nowadays. dently; nevertheless, overall performance depends on collective According to PMBOK standard, a project is a temporary en- work and interaction between team members. It is especially the deavour undertaken to create a unique result []. Two main pro- case for comprehensive projects where team members accomplish ject properties stem from this defi nition: diff erent functions and one member’s outputs become inputs for the others. Henceforth, an eff ective work breakdown and person- • Temporary character: each project has a predefi ned begin- al contribution tracking are of utmost importance, as well as en- ning and ending linked to one of the following conditions: abling cooperation, coordination and communication. — the aim of the project has been achieved; — there is no possibility that the aim be achieved; — there is no need to continue the project. P   :    FESS, • Uniqueness: a project is aimed at an idiosyncratic objec- RANEPA tive and its results diff er from the analogues. Sometimes The Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences (FESS) specializes in to accomplish a singular goal one needs to bring together management education and possesses many years of experience people who do not usually come across each other, who ac- and track record in implementing project approach to education. complish diff erent functions and have diff erent competen- One of the main competitive advantages is working in small teams, cies. which fosters group interaction, empowerment and taking respon- For the purpose of the present paper, we defi ne an educational sibility. Currently the following projects are in execution. project as one whose main objective is to prepare a piece of aca- The need for workfl ow automation is largely due to the in- demic writing (paper, article, report, executive summary etc.) creasing number of students and projects executed. Changing la- usually subject to further defense in viva voce. Thus, such a pro- bour market requirements force the faculty to implement new ject is always time-bound since its completion period is stipulat- types of projects (especially business-academia collaboration and ed by the curriculum, and has unique results. Here, uniqueness international projects) and to broaden their scope. Therefore, a means that each work is to be done independently, has an objec- number of problems arise, for instance: tive, is idiosyncratic and no plagiarism is allowed. A standardized • Low transparency and bad traceability. Project execution structure of the work does not contradict uniqueness of the re- was similar to a black box: a supervisor and administration sult in this sense.

   I. M, Q  M C M E P

T . Educational projects executed at the Faculty to impose personal deadlines to make load more balanced. Y Subject Type Focus Supervisor The latter occurred because no limit on number of works st year Entrepreneurship and Individual narrow course instructor under supervision was established. B business planning Entrepreneurship and Teamwork comprehensive course instructor Thus, the main workfl ow automation objectives can be stated as business planning nd Corporate planning Teamwork narrow course instructor follows: year B Statistics and Teamwork narrow course instructor Econometrics . Enhancing intragroup communications End-of-the-year paper Individual narrow (subject supervisor . Making work progress trackable to choose) to choose . Fighting free-rider issue rd year Financial analysis Teamwork narrow course instructor B Project management Teamwork comprehensive course instructor . Improving effi ciency of control procedures and investment . Enabling collective mentorship and supervision project valuation . Optimizing teaching staff working time Collaboration projects Teamwork narrow/ collective supervi- comprehensive sion (instructor and In order to achieve goals stated above we developed a frame- business mentor) th work based on cloud business solution. The proposed workfl ow  Collaboration projects Teamwork narrow/ collective supervi- year B comprehensive sion (instructor and automation framework consists of three building blocks — Arti- business mentor) facts, Processes and Documents, containing the following items: Graduation project individual/ narrow/ supervisor teamwork comprehensive to choose T . Framework structure st nd  —  Collaboration projects Teamwork narrow/ collective supervi- Artifacts Processes Documents year M comprehensive sion (instructor and Database Forms • Initiating Team Reports: business mentor) • Registration form • Planning • Initiation report (establishing scope, Master thesis * Individual narrow supervisor to choose • Reporting form • Executing schedule and responsibilities) Master project Teamwork comprehensive supervisor to choose Folder • Controlling • Gantt chart (collective supervi- • Team member • interim • Interim planning report sion possible) folder • fi nal • Change management report *The choice between individual master thesis and teamwork master project is up • Group folder • Closing • Interim results consolidation to the student Project materials • Intermediate could only see working progress at milestones, therefore, • Final quality enhancement was limited and/or deadlines missed. Personal contribution memorandum • Free-rider problem. Personal contribution was hardly track- Artifacts are elements of the framework created by the ad- able in teamwork projects ministrator and have public or limited access. The main artifacts • Loss of time on register creation/errors in the register. A are presented below: lot of administrative staff working time was lost on creating project registers for graduation papers. Sometimes reg- Database isters contained outdated information. • Teaching staff overload. In absence of systemic approach to A Database contains information on the students and is created project management academic load was distributed une- by means of fi lling in registration forms. For purposes of the pre- venly during the year and between teachers. The former re- sent work we used cloud tools, namely Google Spreadsheets with lates to low deadline controllability and lack of possibility forms attached, to create a database. A database architecture fol-

   I. M, Q  M C M E P

   I. M, Q  M C M E P lows main relational database principles and consists of the fol- T . Project team log lowing tables and fi elds: Project Team ID  Team Folder https://drive.google.com/drive/u//folders/ . Students: Project Name • Name Project Supervisor Anna Olkova • Email Project Manager Ivan Ivanov https://drive.google. ivan.ivanov@ • Personal folder link com/drive/folders/ gmail.com . Project teams (created from Team registration form): Team Members Petr Petrov https://drive.google. petr.petrov@ • Team ID com/drive/folders/ gmail.com • Project manager (linked to Students table) Sidor Sidorov https://drive.google. sidor.sidorov@ com/drive/folders/ gmail.com • Team members (linked to Students table) Reports • Team folder link .. :: https://drive. Initiation report • Percentage completion (by sections — to be fi lled by project google.com/ supervisor). open?id= . Reports (created from Reporting form) .. :: https://drive. Interim planning report google.com/ • Timestamp open?id= • Team (linked to Teams table) .. :: https://drive. Change management report • Report type google.com/ open?id= • Report number • Attendees • Agenda • Project supervisor (if applied — dropdown) • Resolution • Project manager (dropdown) • Links to appendices • Team members (dropdown) • Project name (combobox/text) Database access is provided to teaching staff involved in project • Team members emails. execution and administrative staff if needed. For convenience sake we also created two reports — Gantt chart and Project team Dropdown questions are automatically pulled from the data- log, whose interface is presented in Table . base. Reporting form is enabled during all project execution period Forms for approved project teams, is to be fi lled in regularly and has the following structure: The framework comprises two form types: Team Registration • Team ID (dropdown) form and и Reporting form. Data from forms is registered in re- • Report type (combobox) spective tables of the Database. • Report number (number) Team registration form is active until the deadline for the in- • Attendees (dropdown or text) itiation stage. After all groups are put together, the form is disa- • Agenda (text) bled and no further changes are allowed. The registration form is • Resolution (text) fi lled in once at a time of a single project and has the following • Appendix (link or upload) structure:

   I. M, Q  M C M E P lows main relational database principles and consists of the fol- T . Project team log lowing tables and fi elds: Project Team ID  Team Folder https://drive.google.com/drive/u//folders/ . Students: Project Name • Name Project Supervisor Anna Olkova • Email Project Manager Ivan Ivanov https://drive.google. ivan.ivanov@ • Personal folder link com/drive/folders/ gmail.com . Project teams (created from Team registration form): Team Members Petr Petrov https://drive.google. petr.petrov@ • Team ID com/drive/folders/ gmail.com • Project manager (linked to Students table) Sidor Sidorov https://drive.google. sidor.sidorov@ com/drive/folders/ gmail.com • Team members (linked to Students table) Reports • Team folder link .. :: https://drive. Initiation report • Percentage completion (by sections — to be fi lled by project google.com/ supervisor). open?id= . Reports (created from Reporting form) .. :: https://drive. Interim planning report google.com/ • Timestamp open?id= • Team (linked to Teams table) .. :: https://drive. Change management report • Report type google.com/ open?id= • Report number • Attendees • Agenda • Project supervisor (if applied — dropdown) • Resolution • Project manager (dropdown) • Links to appendices • Team members (dropdown) • Project name (combobox/text) Database access is provided to teaching staff involved in project • Team members emails. execution and administrative staff if needed. For convenience sake we also created two reports — Gantt chart and Project team Dropdown questions are automatically pulled from the data- log, whose interface is presented in Table . base. Reporting form is enabled during all project execution period Forms for approved project teams, is to be fi lled in regularly and has the following structure: The framework comprises two form types: Team Registration • Team ID (dropdown) form and и Reporting form. Data from forms is registered in re- • Report type (combobox) spective tables of the Database. • Report number (number) Team registration form is active until the deadline for the in- • Attendees (dropdown or text) itiation stage. After all groups are put together, the form is disa- • Agenda (text) bled and no further changes are allowed. The registration form is • Resolution (text) fi lled in once at a time of a single project and has the following • Appendix (link or upload) structure:

   I. M, Q  M C M E P

Folders Folders are created for each team and student and are structured in a hierarchy : a team folder contains team member folders. Folders serve for collective work on the project, tracking and su- pervising working progress and responsibilities. All project team members have access to view a team folder and all its content (including personal member folders). Project manager has also rights to modify content (without changing permissions). Project supervisor also possesses editing rights. No students not making part of a project team are allowed to view folder content. Processes are deﬁ ned in compliance with PMBoK  th edition requirements. Detailed process descriptions are provided below.

Initiating

The ﬁ rst project management stage requires that course instructor or administrative staff provide to students the following documents: • A list of project scope statements, • Aggregated Gantt chart, • Registration form.

Scope Statement

Teaching staff is able either to provide a single case with multiple ways of solving or multiple cases to choose or to empower students to ﬁ nd a case of interest on their own.

Gantt Chart

It is essential to establish deadlines for blocks of processes, track work in progress and assure in-time project completion. Gantt chart visual representation is provided on ﬁ gure . The given above Gantt chart does not set out any work breakdown structure. In general, a one-for-all schedule stipulates Gantt Chart deadlines only for aggregated groups of activities. Further work



Assigning multiple root folders for a student folder is also possible. F .

   I. M, Q  M C M E P

Initiating

Scope Statement

Teaching staff is able either to provide a single case with multiple ways of solving or multiple cases to choose or to empower students to ﬁ nd a case of interest on their own.

Gantt Chart



Assigning multiple root folders for a student folder is also possible. F .

   I. M, Q  M C M E P breakdown as well as preparing a detailed Gantt chart are left up During project execution stage it is appropriate to have regu- to team members. Moreover, a detailed project management plan lar project team meetings (optimal meeting frequency is consid- is to be developed by a member responsible for the work area. ered to be weekly or fortnightly). Each meeting is to be reported on, keeping record of achieved results, deviations from scope/ Registration form schedule, tracking possible issues. Interim results should be uploaded with similar frequency to personal or team folders. It is an artefact that serves the data collection purpose on pro- Reports should also keep track of missed deadlines and deci- ject initiation stage. sions made to handle project issues, including but not limited to organizational measures such as cancelling team membership or Planning introducing new members, reassigning roles and responsibilities. Any changes are subject to documenting as change management After project teams have been created and project scope state- reports. If deadlines are missed, a report should contain informa- ment approved by the teaching staff , each team is supposed to tion about the missed deadline and the new one. Project team prepare a work breakdown structure, defi ne work sequence and manager is allowed to expel students who are unable to fulfi l schedule, as well as to assign roles and responsibilities. An out- their functions from the team. In this case project supervisor put of this stage is Initiation report defi ning scope, WBS, sched- should be informed at short notice. ule and responsibilities with an appendix containing detailed Gantt chart. Such a report is compiled automatically from the Re- Monitoring and controlling porting form. While planning, MBO approach is applicable — a team is required to decompose objectives (possibly in a form of Project manager, project supervisor and administrative staff are an objective tree) and design processes to achieve goals defi ned. charged with control functions. The framework envisages both ALAP principle is viable as well — project ending date is usually intermediate functional and fi nal control. Monitoring shall be ex- fi xed and schedule is set up on backward pass. ecuted on a regular basis with frequency corresponding to that of The team member responsible for an area of work of the ag- project team meetings. It encompasses tracking current state of gregated Gantt chart is required to provide a detailed WBS and the work in progress, keeping record of percentage of completion schedule of the area the day the activity begins. Such a plan is and making critical remarks in form of online comments. All is- called an Interim plan and is to be uploaded as a report in the re- sues identifi ed by project supervisor are subject to revision. Final spective form. control measures include a dry run procedure held approximately  weeks before project presentation. During dry run presenta- Executing tion teaching staff and team members discuss in praesentia re- Project manager functions comprise the following tasks (besides sults obtained by the group. Students get recommendations re- executing a number of activities stipulated by project scope): co- garding project content, formatting and presentation. ordinating teamwork processes, tracking deadline fulfi llment, For tracking purposes, a Database contains Percentage of setting team members’ goals and objectives, organizing team Completion section located in Teams table. When working time meetings and discussing intermediate results. Project team assis- is due for an aggregated group of processes, project supervisor tant, when applicable, is responsible of uploading and keeping can mark activity as done, subject to revision or missing and add project materials, managing project folders, creating reports and a comment on result quality. If a team fails to deliver work on meeting minutes, compiling and formatting fi nal documentation. time, it is possible to organize automatic direct mailing to teams

   I. M, Q  M C M E P breakdown as well as preparing a detailed Gantt chart are left up During project execution stage it is appropriate to have regu- to team members. Moreover, a detailed project management plan lar project team meetings (optimal meeting frequency is consid- is to be developed by a member responsible for the work area. ered to be weekly or fortnightly). Each meeting is to be reported on, keeping record of achieved results, deviations from scope/ Registration form schedule, tracking possible issues. Interim results should be uploaded with similar frequency to personal or team folders. It is an artefact that serves the data collection purpose on pro- Reports should also keep track of missed deadlines and deci- ject initiation stage. sions made to handle project issues, including but not limited to organizational measures such as cancelling team membership or Planning introducing new members, reassigning roles and responsibilities. Any changes are subject to documenting as change management After project teams have been created and project scope state- reports. If deadlines are missed, a report should contain informa- ment approved by the teaching staff , each team is supposed to tion about the missed deadline and the new one. Project team prepare a work breakdown structure, defi ne work sequence and manager is allowed to expel students who are unable to fulfi l schedule, as well as to assign roles and responsibilities. An out- their functions from the team. In this case project supervisor put of this stage is Initiation report defi ning scope, WBS, sched- should be informed at short notice. ule and responsibilities with an appendix containing detailed Gantt chart. Such a report is compiled automatically from the Re- Monitoring and controlling porting form. While planning, MBO approach is applicable — a team is required to decompose objectives (possibly in a form of Project manager, project supervisor and administrative staff are an objective tree) and design processes to achieve goals defi ned. charged with control functions. The framework envisages both ALAP principle is viable as well — project ending date is usually intermediate functional and fi nal control. Monitoring shall be ex- fi xed and schedule is set up on backward pass. ecuted on a regular basis with frequency corresponding to that of The team member responsible for an area of work of the ag- project team meetings. It encompasses tracking current state of gregated Gantt chart is required to provide a detailed WBS and the work in progress, keeping record of percentage of completion schedule of the area the day the activity begins. Such a plan is and making critical remarks in form of online comments. All is- called an Interim plan and is to be uploaded as a report in the re- sues identifi ed by project supervisor are subject to revision. Final spective form. control measures include a dry run procedure held approximately  weeks before project presentation. During dry run presenta- Executing tion teaching staff and team members discuss in praesentia re- Project manager functions comprise the following tasks (besides sults obtained by the group. Students get recommendations re- executing a number of activities stipulated by project scope): co- garding project content, formatting and presentation. ordinating teamwork processes, tracking deadline fulfi llment, For tracking purposes, a Database contains Percentage of setting team members’ goals and objectives, organizing team Completion section located in Teams table. When working time meetings and discussing intermediate results. Project team assis- is due for an aggregated group of processes, project supervisor tant, when applicable, is responsible of uploading and keeping can mark activity as done, subject to revision or missing and add project materials, managing project folders, creating reports and a comment on result quality. If a team fails to deliver work on meeting minutes, compiling and formatting fi nal documentation. time, it is possible to organize automatic direct mailing to teams

   I. M, Q  M C M E P failing to comply with deadlines. Data provided by project super- • Change management report, uploaded if changes in WBS, visors help calculate overall percentage of completion and visu- schedule, roles and responsibilities are to be made. Such a alize by means of the Gantt chart. report should contain both old and new information on the changing matter. Closing • Intermediate result confi rmation, containing description and links to all project materials. Project closing stage requires compiling project results into a fi - nal document and presenting them in a form of defence in viva Project materials voce. Each project has to contain personal contribution memorandum stating ex-post roles and responsibilities for each team Unlike team minutes, project materials are working documents member. A mark comprises the following criteria: project con- and subject to editing if necessary. Project materials are to be up- tent, presentation/defence, compliance with deadlines and pro- loaded in personal folders by members responsible for the area cedures. If a project has been dismissed during dry run proce- of work. Consolidating project materials is a project manager or dures because of its low quality, a presentation of such project is assistant task. delayed and project teams get a “fail” grade. Personal contribution memorandum (to be prepared shortly Documents. Project documentation is to be prepared by pro- before project presentation) Contribution memo refl ects actual ject team and should comprise the following records: ex post roles and responsibilities and each member contribution to the fi nal result. Team meeting minutes Team meeting minutes has usually the following layout: C

• Title (to contain number and timestamp) The described above framework represents project approach to • Attendees student work administration. Preparing instructional projects • Agenda diff ers from real-life project management, though, the main are- • Resolved (action plan statement and decisions made). Dur- as of knowledge remain the same with minor amendments made ing meetings team members make decisions defi ning and to processes. Project management areas of knowledge have the modifying scope, WBS, schedule and responsibilities, as following properties: well as confi rming intermediate results. • Integration: requires integrating a project into the whole • Appendices (e. g. Gantt chart). Appendices are to be up- educational environment. For the time being the framework loaded in the respective form. is applied to single project types (namely, graduation pro- A minutes is never subject to changes. Any changes can be jects, master projects and term papers), though further de- made only by introducing a change management report. The pre- velopment is aimed at making a comprehensive tool for sent framework stipulates the following minutes/report types: managing all educational projects in the faculty and building up systematic approach. The main integration result for • Initiation report — fi rst team meeting minutes containing work breakdown structure, schedule, roles and responsibil- the moment is a more evenly spread academic load. ities. A Gantt chart is also to be attached. • Scope: basically represents work breakdown structure, or • Interim planning report, made and uploaded by a team activities to complete in order to accomplish project goal. member responsible for the area of work. Scope area has no specifi c properties for educational pro-

   I. M, Q  M C M E P failing to comply with deadlines. Data provided by project super- • Change management report, uploaded if changes in WBS, visors help calculate overall percentage of completion and visu- schedule, roles and responsibilities are to be made. Such a alize by means of the Gantt chart. report should contain both old and new information on the changing matter. Closing • Intermediate result confi rmation, containing description and links to all project materials. Project closing stage requires compiling project results into a fi - nal document and presenting them in a form of defence in viva Project materials voce. Each project has to contain personal contribution memorandum stating ex-post roles and responsibilities for each team Unlike team minutes, project materials are working documents member. A mark comprises the following criteria: project con- and subject to editing if necessary. Project materials are to be up- tent, presentation/defence, compliance with deadlines and pro- loaded in personal folders by members responsible for the area cedures. If a project has been dismissed during dry run proce- of work. Consolidating project materials is a project manager or dures because of its low quality, a presentation of such project is assistant task. delayed and project teams get a “fail” grade. Personal contribution memorandum (to be prepared shortly Documents. Project documentation is to be prepared by pro- before project presentation) Contribution memo refl ects actual ject team and should comprise the following records: ex post roles and responsibilities and each member contribution to the fi nal result. Team meeting minutes Team meeting minutes has usually the following layout: C

   I. M, Q  M C M E P

jects compared to real-life ones. It is tracked through use of R team folders.

• Schedule — represents deadlines for each activity, tracked . PMBОK Guide. th ed. Newton Square, Pennsylvania, USA: Pro- by project supervisor in an effi cient and transparent man- ject Management Institute,  ner. Tracking schedule fulfi lment was one of the main aims for workfl ow automation. Due to framework implementation, the on-time fi nished rate has increased substantially. A project supervisor acts therefore like a project portfolio manager.

• Quality — stands for fulﬁ lling stakeholders’ expectations. An educational project is usually subject to a set of requirements, in terms of both content and layout. Workﬂ ow automation helps make control consistent, enables intermediate inspection, enhancing overall project quality.

• Resources — represent project team creation and management. Team creation for instructional projects is left up to students. Though, students become aware of the free-rider issue and get to understand a complicated character of a project. That encourages building up relationships with people having diff erent professional skills as well as a dif- ferent mindset.

• Communication — comprises data collection, creation, distribution and storage. Documenting workﬂ ow is an essential issue for a real-life project. First implementation experience shows that in general students lack discipline in reporting working progress. That is the reason why workﬂ ow automation could be conducive.

• Stakeholders — relationships with all counterparties infl u- encing or infl uenced by a project. Implementing project approach to education helps build up links between academia and business, international relationships and is benefi - cial in terms of bringing qualifi ed workforce to the labour market. Students get hands-on experience on preparing a project, learn by doing and by interaction and become more competitive in the labour market.

   I. M, Q  M C M E P

jects compared to real-life ones. It is tracked through use of R team folders.

  Scientiﬁ c Literature Ordered issue

nd International Management, Quality and Marketing Conference –th April

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Выпускающий редактор Е. В. Попова

Художник /////// Оригинал-макет О. З. Элоев Верстка Е. В. Немешаевой

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