Communities of Kurilo and Žabljak Crnojevića
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Communities of Kurilo and Žabljak Crnojevića Capacity Assessment Report Third ECIS Disaster Risk Reduction Community of Practice Workshop Montenegro, 4-6 June 2012 1 A team of practitioners visited the communities of Žabljak Crnojevića and Kurilo in order to conduct community capacity assessments for natural disasters. The purpose of the field visit was to provide the practitioners with a local hazard, risk and vulnerability context and to use their expertise in coming up with findings and recommendations. 2 CONTENTS 1. Country Context………………………………………………………………………… ………………….. 4 1.1 Geography 1.2 Main Natural Hazards 2. DRR Governance and Institutional Arrangements in Montenegro…….. …………..7 3. Communities in Kurilo and Žabljak Crnojevića………………………. …………………….. 8 3.1 Communities of Kurilo and Žabljak Crnojevića – Flood Preparedness Plan 4. Mission Findings ………………………………………………………………… ………….. ………….11 4.1 Mission Findings: Municipality 4.2 Flood Preparedness 4.3 Preparedness at the Municipal Level 4.4 Mission Findings: Kurilo Village 4.5 Mission Findings Žabljak Crnojevića 5. Conclusion and Recommendations …………………………………….. ………………….. …14 5.1 Flood risk – Acceptable (level of) Risk for the Communities of Kurilo and Zabljak Crnojevica 5.2 Recommendations 3 1. Country Context 1.1 Geography Montenegro (meaning “Black Mountain”) s a country located in Southeastern Europe. It has a coast on the Adriatic Sea to the south-west and boarders Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo and Albania. Montenegro ranges from high peaks along its borders with Serbia and Albania, a segment of the Karst of the western Balkan Peninsula, to a narrow coastal plain that is only one to four miles (6km) wide. The plain stops abruptly in the north where Mount Lovcen and Mount Orjen plunge into the inlet of the Bay of Kotor. 1.2 Main Natural Hazards The most prevalent natural hazards in Montenegro are earthquakes, floods, flash floods, extreme meteorological phenomena, avalanches, regional fires and landslides. An analysis of the last five years shows the increasing trend of frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events in Montenegro. These include unprecedented levels of precipitation and warmer winter temperatures which prevents rain from becoming snow. Historic data 4 on flooding in Montenegro shows that in the period of 1979-1997 there were only 5 major floods. However, from 2004 to 2010, floods occurred a staggering 6 times. The biggest floods were recorded in the upper flow of the Tara and the Lim rivers in 1963 and 1979, and then at the end of 1999 and in the first half of 2000. The December 2010 floods were unprecedented in both water levels and extent of area affected in 12 out of 21 municipalities in Montenegro. Transport routes, electricity supply and communication lines between the northern region and the rest of the country were obstructed for a certain period of time and 1.5% of the population had to be evacuated. The ‘Post-Disaster Needs Assessment following the November – December 2010 Flood Disaster’ in Montenegro, estimated the total damages and losses at approximately € 44 million, at 1.49% of the 2009 GDP. In January 2012, the country faced a cold freeze , with heavy snowfall blocking access to life line services and communications for many communities in the mountainous areas. The Government declared a state of emergency and national and international resources had to be mobilized to provide humanitarian relief to the stranded. Almost all of Montenegro is exposed to frequent seismic events, especially the coastal area, the Zeta-Skadar depression, and the Berane basin. Around 40% of country’s territory is within a zone of anticipated seismic intensity greater or equal to magnitude 8 on the Richter scale. This affects some 60% of the country’s population. A devastating earthquake in April 1979 occurred in the coast and wider area of Skadar Lake, causing damages amounting to $4 billion, affecting 100,418 people, and killing 136 people. There is a high probability of that strong earthquakes would activate large landslides and rockslides. Meteorological hazards include floods and drought. Strong droughts and increased summer temperature were recorded in the period 1981-90, and especially from 2000-10. According to available projections, by 2030 temperature will rise 0.60 to 1.3°C, depending on the season and the area. Owing to changes in precipitation, there will be a sharp increase in 5 variability of river flow, characterized by both flooding and hydrological drought. Coastal flooding and storm surges will significantly increase. Little information is available concerning specific disaster vulnerabilities and capacities. Much data is merged with that of Serbia. Vulnerabilities include deteriorated water infrastructure and unsustainable water management practices, unplanned land use, inappropriate forest and mineral resource exploitation, and outdated building codes. Capacity needs identified 1 in various studies include the establishment of a National Platform for disaster risk reduction, developing a country-level GIS database for spatial planning, preparing a disaster management plan for the country, developing legislation on land-use planning and building codes. Rapid economic development in Montenegro since independence has increased the country’s vulnerability to risk to various disasters. According to data from the Real Estate Directorate there are 39,922 informally constructed structures in Montenegro though as per some unofficial accounts this number exceeds 100,000- with high level of seismic risk and vulnerability to floods. Developmental challenges pertaining to vulnerability of specific groups of population and to regional disparities remain. The Roma, Ashkalia and Egyptian (RAE) population is by far the poorest, most vulnerable and marginalized, with a poverty rate of 36%. 2 The low-capacities and lack of preparedness planning are all the more a risk for Montenegro since it is located in South Eastern Europe- a region that is projected to experience the impacts of climate change in a more intense manner than other region. Coupled with its geographic locations, the analysis of the meteorological trends (climate anomalies and extremes are showing up more frequently and presenting more intensely), and forecasts (demonstrated link between Green House Gas emissions and extreme events) all indicate that a more frequent occurrence of extreme events and their more intense presentation will be Montenegro’s reality at least in the short to medium term. This trend is likely to lock the population living in the flood prone areas into intractable process of dealing with flood related damages and losses. Montenegro is facing severe fiscal constraints as a result of the economic crisis and it remains unlikely that public funding will be allocated for training and capacity building for developing preparedness planning. 1 UNDP BCPR, Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Assessment Report for Montenegro, April 2011. 2 National Human Development Report, Montenegro, 2009. 6 2. DRR Governance and Institutional Arrangements in Montenegro The Law on Protection and Rescue (2007) defines the responsibilities, rights and obligation of citizens, legal entities, local self-government, and state administrative bodies pertaining to protection and rescue. A National Strategy for Emergency Situations has been adopted by the Government in 2006. The National and Local Plans for Protection and Rescue are meant to be adopted at the national and municipal levels and at the level of specific companies. 3 The National Strategy of Sustainable Development (2007) and Spatial Plan of Montenegro (2006) are other instruments identifying risk mitigation measures. The Montenegrin National Forestry Policy and National Forest Inventory maps potential threats to the forests. The law on Montenegrin Red Cross identifies the Red Cross role in emergencies; training, evacuation support, family unification, tracing and first aid. The 2010 law on Hydro-meteorological Matters and Law on Hydrographic Activities gives mandate to the Hydro-meteorological Institute of Montenegro to issue warnings. The Ministry of Interior and Public Administration (Internal Affairs) is mandated for risk management, preparedness and response since 2004. The Sector for Emergency Management (Extraordinary Situations) subordinate to the ministry was established in 2004 and has started considering DRR since 2010. 4 Talks on establishment of a National Platform on DRR are ongoing. 3 Law of Protection and Rescue, Official Gazette of Montenegro 13/07, Article 8 4 IPA Beneficiary Country Needs Assessment, Montenegro 7 3. Communities in Kurilo and Žabljak Crnojevića Each one of the 34 households in Kurilo was affected by the 2010 floods. Since the community is located close to Lake Skadar, the area was inundated with water for a significant length of time, leading to substantial loss and discomfort. The community falls under the Golubovci municipal area. (a sub-division on Municipality of Podgorica) Alternatively, the community of Žabljak Crnojevića is geographically close to Golubovci, though it technically falls under the Cetinje municipality. It stands as an interesting case study as the community has to depend on the Rescue Services of Cetinje during emergencies, despite the fact that it would be easier to rely on Golubovci. Though the Rescue Services are active and there is a need for the early warning system to be strengthened. The community was isolated and under water during the 2010 floods. Since