Policy Brief What Future for BASIC? the Emerging Powers Dimension in the International Politics of Climate Change Negotiations
INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL DIALOGUE a focus on current issues Issue 95/March 2012
Policy Brief What future for BASIC? The emerging powers dimension in the international politics of climate change negotiations Lesley Masters is a Senior Researcher in the Environmental Lesley Masters Diplomacy Programme.
Introduction
In Copenhagen 2009, the UNFCCC climate negotiations saw the rise of the emerging powers of Brazil, South Africa, India and China (BASIC) as they assumed a leading role in realizing the final outcome in the shape of the Copenhagen Accord. Over two years on, with still no international agreement on the table, questions remain concerning the role of these countries in shaping the future of the international climate change regime. Indeed, as Copenhagen was notable for the significant role played by the BASIC countries, so Durban saw a more subdued performance. As preparations begin for the 18th Conference of the Parties (COP18) in Qatar, this policy brief gives consideration to the rise of BASIC and the role of this group in perusing an internationally acceptable agreement governing emission reductions for all countries. This will have implications, not only for the climate change negotiations, but will underscore the value of BASIC as a means of furthering South-South relations in the broader international milieu.
Global Insight aims to The rise of BASIC provide members of Copenhagen represented a significant geo-political turning point in multilateral the policy community negotiations. Rather than producing the hoped for binding agreement, the 2009 with concise but negotiations was more memorable for ‘institutionalising’ BASIC then for achieving trenchant analyses progress in determining the future direction of the climate change regime. In other of topical issues. words, these negotiations were significant for the role taken by countries of the South in Comments and shaping the negotiation outcomes (Copenhagen Accord) and in defending key principles suggestions are invited. enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol – particularly the principle of common but differentiated Policy Brief responsibilities and respective capacities. This initial Table 1 success in providing a unified front followed from the first BASIC Ministerial meeting in Beijing (November Number Location Date 2009), where discussions set out to coordinate positions 1 Beijing, China November 2009 ahead of the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15). As significant contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) 2 New Delhi, India January 2010 emissions, and with growing pressure from developed 3 Cape Town, South Africa April 2010 countries to undertake binding commitments, BASIC 4 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil July 2010 offered a platform for these emerging countries to push questions of equity, fairness and the future of their 5 Tianjin, China October 2010 socio-economic development. The perception was that 6 New Delhi, India February 2011 as key emerging powers, this South-South engagement Zimbali, Durban, could serve as a balance for the pressure exerted by the 7 May 2011 industrialised countries of the geo-political North both South Africa in terms of pressure on smaller developing states, and in 8 Inhotim, MinnasGerais, Brazil August 2011 terms of setting the agenda.1 9 Beijing, China November 2011 While the activities of the BASIC countries were clearly visible during COP15, with the Indian Minister 10 New Delhi, India February 2012 noting that ‘[t]he BASIC Group Ministers met virtually on an hourly basis right through the Copenhagen While the ‘Durban Platform’ that followed from COP17 2 Conference’, the genesis of this grouping goes back to addressed the immediate future of the Kyoto Protocol late 2004 early 2005. Perhaps ironically, given the dissent and took tentative steps towards the operationalization between the European Union (EU) and India, China of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and Technology and Brazil ahead of the Durban climate talks (2011), Mechanism, a continued focus on multilateralism has the idea of a BASIC group was supported by an EU become increasingly important for BASIC negotiators. project whose primary focus was on ‘linking national This comes as developed countries in particular undertake more unilateral actions towards the products and services and international climate policy by enhancing and of developing countries, including fiscal and non-fiscal strengthening institutional capacity on climate change measures. A key example has been a move by the EU 3 for Brazil, China, India and South Africa’. to include the aviation sector, both EU and non-EU Since 2009the BASIC countries have met on ten carriers, into the Emissions Trading system.4 In response different occasion (Table 1) China has gone as far as banning its airlines from signing On each occasion the Communiqué following the up to the EU carbon emissions scheme.5 meeting has reiterated the key concerns of the grouping The challenge for BASIC has been in maintaining including: the momentum from the Copenhagen negotiations. • the continuation of the two track process (Kyoto Certainly, while there have been a number of high-level Protocol) and the ‘principle of common but meetings during the course of the last two years, questions differentiated responsibilities and respective remain concerning the future of this lose interest-based coalition. capabilities’; • adaptation issues should be accorded equal priority to issues of mitigation; Just another ‘club’? • include issues like equity, intellectual property The international arena has seen a proliferation in rights and trade; ‘club diplomacy’, in part a response to the challenges (or frustrations) of multilateralism. This includes, • finance, capacity building and technology transfer; amongst others, Groups such as the G8, G20, the Major • the importance of the UNFCCC process and Economies Forum (MEF), as well as BRICS (Brazil, multilateralism in the negotiations. Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and BASIC. The
2 Policy Brief first challenge is that BASIC, like BRICS, is primarily emissions. These differences have also been borne out in a loose political association. Meetings of ministers the different approaches to the negotiations. In the 2009 continue to take place, re-affirming stated positions, with talks in Copenhagen it was China that was perceived as little in the way of building on the progress and strategies taking a hard line, but by the Durban talks of 2011, it in taking the position they had created at Copenhagen was India that took a more hard-line approach opposing forward. BASIC also overlaps with more institutionalised any legally binding cuts for developing countries. groupings such as IBSA, which has already been engaged Following the BASIC meeting in August 2011, on issues of climate change through the Working Group questions were raised on whether there would be a on Environment and Climate Change established for cohesive front from the emerging powers by the Durban ‘deepening the mutual knowledge and exploring common points of interest6’, as well as other political associations talks. This followed indications that differences had such as the BRICS. This increasingly complex spaghetti occurred between South Africa, on the one hand, and bowl of groupings not only presents a challenge to states India, China and Brazil on the other, over South Africa’s in terms of capacity to engage effectively on all these suggestions that ‘Durban launch formal negotiations platforms, as well as the ability to set out a clear sense for a new compact bringing emerging economy under of purpose. international commitments as well’.9 While these The second challenge is that of representation. Does differences received attention in the Indian media, BASIC truly represent the interests of the South? While there was very little discussion within the other BASIC there are clear differences between the BASIC countries countries. By the time the final Communique was issued and other states, such as the Least Developed Countries there was no indication of any differences, with a return (LDCs) or Small Island Developing States (SIDS), within to sweeping statements of cooperation. Yet these tensions the climate change negotiations, this is an element that filtered into the COP17 negotiations. As observers BASIC has been careful in addressing. The importance of noted, by the end of the first week the ‘dynamics within being seen to be inclusive and enhancing multilateralism the BASIC group were unclear to some, as was the internationally has seen the development of a BASIC broader response to the EU’s proposal for how a package ‘+’ approach. Early meetings included invitations to the deal might emerge and its desire for a timetable towards Chair of the G77 to attend, and by the 5th meeting in a broader agreement’.10 Nevertheless, it was also noted Tianjin, China, the Chair of the G77 (incoming and that Durban was the first time that the BASIC spoke in current) was joined by the representatives for the Small plenary as a ‘united negotiating group’.11 Island Developing States (Grenada), Arab countries (Egypt), and the Chair of the Africa Group (Ethiopia). Conclusion In addition to the BASIC+ approach, rhetoric from the BASIC Communique’s continue to place importance BASIC, on the one hand, offers a point of leverage on the links between BASIC and the G77 plus China. In against industrialised country positions and, if the first instance it has been noted that BASIC countries coordinated effectively, could serve in maintaining meet regularly within the context of the G77 meetings pressure on these countries to come to the negotiation to ‘to analyse developments in the climate negotiations table with something to offer. Yet questions remain on and to work on common strategies’.7 In addition the link whether, like IBSA, the group will look to move beyond between BASIC and the G77 was underscored in the a loose political association focused primarily on climate Joint Statement issued at the Eighth BASIC Ministerial change to considering sustainable development and the environment more broadly. From the early stages Meeting, where emphasis was given to ‘the importance of the group’s development it was noted that BASIC is of G77 and China unity and its key role in climate 8 not merely a negotiation forum, but goes beyond this negotiations’. towards looking at undertaking ‘cooperative actions’ The third challenge has been that of competing on issues of climate change. However, from the Eighth interests, which have served to undermine the potential BASIC Ministerial meeting there were indications that of BASIC in the climate change negotiations. There are a broader focus may take shape as ministers looked key difference between these states in terms of how to towards ‘ensuring success of Rio+20 ...and the New Delhi measure emissions (per capita) and the sources of those Conference on Biodiversity’.12 This will, however, require
3 Policy Brief deeper engagement and coordination across a number of Notes development issues on which these countries maintain 1 Talk delivered by Shyam Saran, former foreign Secretary their own particular positions. As the Durban negotiations and till recently Prime Minister’s Special Envoy on Climate demonstrated, interest based alliances are fickle in nature Change at VIF. ‘Climate Change Negotiations: The and countries that may be on different sides of an issue Challenge for Indian Diplomacy’ 19 March 2010 http:// www.vifindia.org/print/299 [accessed 08/06/2011] in one sector may find themselves pushing for the same 2 Suo Moto Statement of ShriJairam Ramesh, Minister of thing on another agenda. In this instance countries like State (Independent Charge) Environment and Forests in India, China, Brazil, the US, UAE, Indonesia and South Rajya Sabha. 22nd December 2009. pp. 5-6 http://moef. Korea sought to oppose an EU proposal that would see nic.in/downloads/public-information/COP%2015_meet. the introduction of legally binding targets for all states pdf [accessed 17/11/2011] by 2015.If BASIC is to fulfil its potential as a platform 3 BASIC – Project http://www.basic-project.net/ [accessed 22/11/2011]. For the full report ‘Strengthening the for South/South leverage in pursuing a fair and equitable capacity of developing countries to prepare for and climate change regime every effort will need to be made participate in negotiations on future actions under the to go beyond the narrow focus and top down approach UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol’ The BASIC Project currently framing discussions. Final Report. September 2007 .Submitted by F. Yamin. p. 5 http://www.basic-project.net/data/final/BASIC%20 Final%20Report%20September%2020071.pdf Policy Consideration 4 Joint statement issued at the conclusion of the Eighth Basic Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change - Inhotim, The following policy considerations are for member states Minnas Gerais (Brazil) 26-27 August 2011http://www.dfa. gov.za/docs/2011/braz0830.html [accessed 30/08/2011] of BASIC, but will also have implications for BRICS and 5 Reuters. China bans airlines from joining EU emissions South/South groups more broadly. scheme http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/ Setting a Strategy– in moving towards further china-bans-airlines-from-joining-eu-emissions- cooperation on questions of climate change there is a scheme-2012-02-06 [accessed 07/02/2012] need to move beyond reiterating positions towards setting 6 The India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue Forum.Sectoral Cooperation.http://www.ibsa-trilateral.org/ [accessed a strategy, aims and objectives for the group. This will not 07/02/2012] only deepen coordination, but will have implications for 7 M. Olsson, A. Atteridge, K. Hallding, J. Hellberg. Together the continued value of BASIC as the number of different Alone? Brazil, South Africa, India, China (BASIC) and the groupings proliferate in international relations. Climate Change Conundrum. Stockholm Environment Institute Policy Brief. December 2010, pp. 1-2 Inclusivity and transparency – with growing pressure 8 Joint statement issued at the conclusion of the Eighth Basic for the larger emerging economies of BASIC to be seen Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change - Inhotim, Minnas as separate from other developing countries, questions Gerais (Brazil) 26-27 August 2011 http://www.dfa.gov.za/ of inclusivity and transparency in terms of South/South docs/2011/braz0830.html. [accessed 30/08/2011] engagement becomes increasingly important. Here 9 N. Sethi. BASIC nod to India’s stand on climate talks. November 2, 2011 The Times of India continuation of the BASIC + approach and engagement 10 Earth Negotiations Bulletin. International Institute for with the G77 is increasingly important in ensuring that Sustainable Development. 5 December 2011 ENB Vol. the voices of all developing countries are represented at 12 No. 529, p. 3. http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/ the negotiation table. enb12529e.pdf [accessed 07/02/2012] Focus on sustainable development – sustainable 11 Earth Negotiations Bulletin. International institute for Sustainable Development. 13 December 2011 Pg 30.Vol development offers the opportunity to link development, 12 No 534 ENB http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12534e. climate change and the environment. Further html [accessed 07/02/2012] consideration needs to be given to the linkages between 12 Joint statement issued at the conclusion of the Eighth sustainable development and climate change from Basic Ministerial Meeting on Climate Change - Inhotim, Minnas Gerais (Brazil) 26-27 August 2011http:// emerging state positions and how this will be positioned www.dfa.gov.za/docs/2011/braz0830.html [accessed on the BASIC agenda. 30/08/2011]
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