Historic Series
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The First 43 British General Elections, 1832-2001 This data set was put together over the course of a decade with the help of Bruce Tether and James Cornford (at Newcastle) Kevin Holohan, David Cutts, and Ron Johnston (At Bristol), Heather Eyre (at Leeds), John Pritchard (at Sheffield), William Field (who supplied the raw 1885-1951 data) and Ron Johnston (who found the source for the data from 1832-1885). The Data is of all general election results since 1832 but were simplified by assigning votes to nearest equivalent modern parties: Con, Lab, Lib, Nat, Other and abstentions. For the period 1832-1880: Chartists and Lib-Lab votes were labelled as Lab; votes were totalled to produce one per party per seat (so that there were no multi-member seats; university seats were ignored; then votes were redistributed to 1885 seats (i.e. Bristol’s votes evenly distributed to the four seats of Bristol N, S, W and E using seat names as a guide to the allocation). A table is given below of how this allocation was done. For the period 1885-1910: Liberal Unionists votes were labelled as Con; votes were simplified as before and all then redistributed to 1918 seats using Kinnear’s maps: the British voter, 1968 (for example Bristol South votes were redistributed to Bristol South and Central – tables are given below). For the period 1918-1945: A similar process was followed, and the 25 new seats of 1945 allocated by hand, then redistributed to the seats of 1950 (see tables below). All the results by1950-1951 seat were then redistributed to 1955 by the final table below – based on working with maps of boundaries by hand.. Next the 1955-1970 results were redistributed to 1974 areas using maps and Stead’s appendix in the 1974 Nuffield study. The 1974-1979 results 9and all previous results were redistributed to 1983 seats using the BBC/ITN guide to the new seats of 1983. The 1983-1992 results were redistributed to 1997 seats using Ron Johnston and colleagues algorithms based on the 1991 Census. Data for the period 1955-1992 is deposited at the ESRC Data Archive. The result is a matrix of: 42 Elections, 5 parties plus the electorate, over 641 seats. The Seat which behaved most like the country as a whole over time since 1924 was Dover. Table 1 – Dover results 1924 to 1997 (bold when Labour win) Dover Parliamentary Constituency Results by 1997 area: 1997 Con 17796 Lab 29535 Lib 4302 Nat 0 Other 2567 Elect 68669 1992 1987 1983 Con 25646 25343 25454 Lab 24808 18802 16234 Lib 6272 10942 10601 Nat 0 0 0 Other 1435 0 404 Elect 69646 68997 68792 1979 1974oct 1974feb Con 26401 22123 23290 Lab 19550 20144 19150 Lib 5957 8425 11041 Nat 0 0 0 Other 880 0 570 Elect 65457 64424 63919 1970 1966 1964 1959 1955 Con 25967 20737 20441 24100 23563 Lab 24544 23511 20802 21304 20959 Lib 0 3434 5040 00 Nat 0 0 0 00 Other 0 0 0 00 Elect 62608 56642 55962 54785 54399 1951 1950 Con 24594 22117 Lab 21561 20125 Lib 0 2478 Nat 0 0 Other 0 409 Elect 53828 52618 1945 1935 1931 1929 1924 Con 13535 22328 25656 17745 18275 Lab 14986 12584 8437 7646 6579 Lib 0 0 0 7056 0 Nat 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Elect 39058 50189 46672 43635 33279 Implications of the past for post-1997 Rebasing the results of the last 30 General Elections to 1997 constituencies does not greatly alter most election results (in two marginal cases a different party wins). The historic record illustrates that the closest parallels to 1997 were 1906 and 1945. However, the Liberals and Labour lost, respectively, in 1910 and 1950. In particular the 1945 victory had a similar geography to 1997 and similar middle class pro-Labour swings. However, neither of these landslides was as large as that of 1997 and both saw abstentions fall rather than rise. If the defeats, 1906-1910 and 1945-50 are projected onto 1997 Labour would maintain a large majority. In the event Labour maintained its majority in 2001 almost unchanged. Having votes by the same set of seats over a long time period allows inter election swings to be compared (by correlation). Before 1951 there were weak national swings. 1945 may not be a good comparison to 1997 as a result (where the largest geographical swing was in abstentions). After 1964 the spatial relationship between the parties became distinctive. Con and Lib became consistently positively correlated. Of most interest is the lack of any great distinctive difference in the patterns between 1987, 1992 and 1997. The 1997 landslide victory was far more about seats than votes, such that a slight change in votes, all in the right direction, could have a great change on seats. British 1997 seats estimated to be won at general elections by the main three parties 1832-2000 700 600 500 1906 1945 1997 400 con lab 300 lib 200 100 0 1832 1847 1865 1885 1900 1918 1929 1950 1964 1974o 1992 Middle England constituencies are particularly interest. Those which swing most easily between parties. Labour gained 152 constituencies from the Conservatives in 1997 containing 10.5 million electors. They gained only 0.85m more votes, abstentions rose by 0.84m, the Tory vote fell by 1.26m and the Liberal vote by 0.33m. The inter-election correlation’s for these seats are far lower than for the country as a whole and the established relationships between the parties is also far looser over time. The share of the vote by party in these seats is almost identical to that in the same areas in 1945. However, only in 1865 did the Liberals almost win all these seats, then 70% in 1906, with Labour winning 65% in 1945. It is possible to imagine a 30-40 year voting cycle of Labour/Liberal victories: 1832, 1865, 1906, 1945, 1966, 1997 (33, 41, 39, 21, 31 years) with a strengthening Conservative vote in between until the electorate ‘snaps’. It is equally possible to conclude that there are sufficient differences between the period prior to 1950 and now, such that we have no precedent for post 1997 possibilities. The historical precedent, if any, is that it takes a sustained period out of power (a generation) before the electorate in large numbers swing away from the Tories…before they gradually return. As yet they have not returned. Table 2: Lookup from 1832-1880 seats to 1885-1910 seats Split by: ID 1832-1880 Name 1832-1880 To: 1885-1910 3 1 Chelsea 8 14 19 7 2 City of London 9 38 39 40 41 42 48 8 3 Finsbury 11 12 13 20 21 22 23 24 4 4 Greenwhich 15 10 31 58 9 5 Hackney 16 17 18 3 4 34 35 43 44 7 6 Lambeth 27 28 29 1 2 30 56 4 7 Marylebone 32 33 36 37 6 8 Southwark 46 47 5 6 7 45 7 9 Tower Hamlets 50 51 52 53 54 55 49 3 10 Westminster 57 25 26 1 11 Abingdon 207 1 12 Andover 274 1 13 Arundel 390 1 14 Ashburton 241 1 15 Ashton-under-Lyne 59 1 16 Aylesbury 210 1 17 Banbury 355 1 18 Barnstable 242 1 19 Bath 62 1 20 Bedford 63 1 21 Berwick-upon-Tweed 347 1 22 Beverley 412 1 23 Bewdley 405 1 24 Birkenhead 64 7 25 Birmingham 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 1 26 Blackburn 72 1 27 Bodmin 224 1 28 Bolton 73 1 29 Boston 74 3 30 Bradford 75 76 77 1 31 Bridgnorth 323 1 32 Bridgwater 363 1 33 Bridport 251 1 34 Brighton 78 4 35 Bristol 79 80 81 82 1 36 Buckingham 211 1 37 Burnley 83 1 38 Bury 84 1 39 Bury St. Edmunds 85 1 40 Calne 400 1 41 Cambridge 86 1 42 Canterbury 87 1 43 Carlisle 88 1 44 Chatham 89 1 45 Cheltenham 90 1 46 Chester 91 1 47 Chichester 388 1 48 Chippenham 400 1 49 Christchurch 92 1 50 Cirenchester 269 1 51 Clitheroe 300 1 52 Cockermouth 230 1 53 Colchester 93 1 54 Coventry 94 1 55 Cricklade 401 1 56 Darlington 96 1 57 Dartmouth 247 1 58 Derby 97 1 59 Devizes 402 1 60 Devonport 98 1 61 Dewsbury 99 1 62 Dorchester 249 1 63 Dover 100 1 64 Droitwich 406 1 65 Dudley 101 4 66 Durham 102 258 259 260 1 67 East Retford 352 1 68 Evesham 408 1 69 Exeter 103 1 70 Eye 377 1 71 Frome 365 1 72 Gateshead 104 1 73 Gloucester 105 1 74 Grantham 106 1 75 Gravesend 107 1 76 Great Grimsby 108 1 77 Great Marlow 212 1 78 Great Yarmouth 109 1 79 Guildford 384 1 80 Halifax 110 1 81 The Hartlepools 112 1 82 Harwich 263 1 83 Hasting 113 1 84 Helston 225 1 85 Hereford 114 1 86 Hertford 281 1 87 Honiton 243 1 88 Horsham 391 1 89 Huddersfield 115 1 90 Huntingdon 285 1 91 Hythe 219 1 92 Ipswich 117 1 93 Kendal 399 1 94 Kidderminster 118 1 95 King's Lynn 119 3 96 Kingston upon Hull 120 121 122 1 97 Knaresborough 410 1 98 Lancaster 306 1 99 Launceston 226 5 100 Leeds 123 124 125 126 127 1 101 Leicester 128 1 102 Leominster 279 1 103 Lewes 392 1 104 Lichfield 374 1 105 Lincoln 129 1 106 Liskeard 227 9 107 Liverpool 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 1 108 Ludlow 359 1 109 Lyme Regis 252 1 110 Lymington 277 1 111 Macclesfield 221 1 112 Maidstone 139 1 113 Maldon 264 1 114 Malmesbury 400 1 115 Malton 415 6 116 Manchester 140 141 142 143 144 145 1 117 Marlborough 402 1 118 Middlesbrough 146 1 119 Midhurst 388 1 120 Morpeth 147 1 121 Newark-on-Trent 353 1 122 Newcastle-under-Lyme 148 1 123 Newcasle-upon-Tyne 149 1 124 Newport 360 1 125 Northallerton 413 1 126 Northampton 150 1 127 Norwich 151 3 128 Nottingham 152 153 154 1 129 Oldham 155 1 130 Oxford 156 1 131 Penryn and Falmouth 157 1 132 Peterborough 158 1 133 Petersfield 278 1 134 Plymouth 159 1 135 Pontefract 160 1 136 Poole 251 1 137 Portsmouth 161 1 138 Preston 162 1 139 Reading 163 1 140 Reigate 386 1 141 Richmond 414 1 142 Ripon 430 1 143 Rochdale 164 1 144 Rochester 165 1 145 Rye 393 1 146 St.