POST-SOVIET POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION IN UKRAINE (1991-2004) A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY EL İF Şİ MŞEK IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN EURASIAN STUDIES NOVEMBER 2005 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences. _____________________________ Prof. Dr. Sencer Ayata Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. ____________________________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ceylan Tokluo ğlu Head of Department This is to certify that we have read thesis and that in our opinion it s fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. _______________________________ Assist. Prof. Dr. Oktay Tanrısever Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Ba ğcı (METU, IR) _______________ Assist. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever (METU, IR) _______________ Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kamer Kasım (AIBU, IR) _______________ I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name Surname: Signature: iii ABSTRACT POST SOVIET POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION IN UKRAINE (1991-2004) Şim şek, Elif M.S., Department of Eurasian Studies Supervisor: Assist. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever November 2005, 125 pages This thesis seeks to examine the post-Soviet political transformation in Ukraine between 1991 and 2004. Since Ukraine declared independence in 1991, the problems of political transformation to democracy in Ukraine have affected the outbreak of the Orange Revolution. The thesis attempts to examine the problems of post-Soviet political transformation in Ukraine under Leonid Kravchuk and Leonid Kuchma in order to analyse the dynamics of the Orange Revolution in 2004. The dynamics of the Orange Revolution are in part a result of the mass movements against the ongoing problems of the post-Soviet political transformation to democracy in Ukraine. This thesis also argues that the Orange Revolution does not indicate the conclusion of the political transformation in Ukraine, since the problems of the political transformation in Ukraine still remain as it has been seen in the short-term evolution of the political progress of Viktor Yushchenko, who elected to the presidency in the 2004 presidential elections. Keywords: Ukraine, Political Transformation, Orange Revolution, Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yushchenko iv ÖZ UKRAYNA’DA SOVYET SONRASI S İYASAL DÖNÜ ŞÜM (1991-2004) Şim şek, Elif Yüksek Lisans, Avrasya Çalı şmaları Yüksek Lisans Programı Tez Yöneticisi: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever Kasım 2005, 125 sayfa Bu tez 1991 ve 2004 yılları arasında, Ukrayna’daki Sovyet sonrası siyasal dönü şümü incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. 1991’de Ukrayna’nın ba ğımsızlı ğını ilan etmesinden itibaren, Ukrayna’da demokratikle şmeye yönelik siyasi dönü şümde ya şanan problemler Turuncu Devrim’e yol açan etkenlerdendir. 2004’teki Turuncu Devrim’in dinamiklerini analiz edebilmek için, tez, Leonid Kravchuk ve Leonid Kuchma dönemlerinde Sovyet sonrası siyasi dönü şüm sürecinde ya şanan problemleri açıklamayı amaçlamaktadır. Ukrayna’da Sovyet sonrası siyasi dönü şümde ya şanan problemlere kar şıt olarak geli şen kitle hareketleri belli oranda Turuncu Devrimin dinamiklerini olu şturmu ştur. Viktor Yuschenko’nun. 2004 Ba şkanlık Seçimlerinde Ukrayna devlet ba şkanı olarak seçilmesinin ardından sonra geçen kısa dönemde Ukrayna’da Sovyet sonrası siyasi dönü şümün problemlerinin izlerinin hala silinememesi nedeniyle, bu tez aynı zamanda da Ukrayna’da ya şanan Turuncu Devrim’in Ukrayna’nın siyasi dönü şümünün sona erip ermedi ğini tartı şmayı amaçlar. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ukrayna, Siyasal Dönü şüm, Turuncu Devrim, Leonid Kravçuk, Leonid Kuçma, Viktor Yu şçenko. v To the dearest, who taught me all I know, H. Necati Ergül, always living in our hearts… vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to thank my Supervisor Assist. Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever, who has always encouraged me to work harder since the beginning of my M.S. in the Eurasian Studies Programme. I express sincere appreciation to him for accepting to be my supervisor and his encouragement at every step of the process of writing this thesis. The completion of this study would not have been possible without his profound guidance. I also thank the chairperson of the examining committee Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Ba ğcı and member Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kamer Kasım. Their comments were invaluable for me to greatly improve my thesis. To my grandfather, Hasan Necati Ergül, I express genuine gratitude for raising me, encouraging me to learn and read more, I am also grateful to my grandmother, Cemile Ergül, who also raised me. I believe you see me there. I am greatly indebted to my parents, Hülya Şim şek and Necdet Şim şek, for their patience during my B.A. and M.S. for their kindness and for being such amazing parents. I also thank Kemal Dervi ş who is the perfect role-model for me and no words of gratitude would be sufficient enough to thank Zeynep Damla Gürel for her encouragement and her support for my academic studies. I also thank M. Murat Erdo ğan and Mahmut Şenel for their great efforts and faith in my abilities. And last but not least, I especially thank Murat Sanio ğlu and Barı ş Çınar for motivating me during my research and writing thesis, and for their great effort in helping me not to feel depressed during this process. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM….…………………………………….…………..……….………….iii ABSTRACT...………........………………………………….......……….……….…..vii ÖZ.…………………................................. ...........…….......……………..…….……..vii DEDICATION.......................................................................……………….……….Ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..........................................................................................x TABLE OF CONTENTS.……...……………...………………………..….................xi LIST OF TABLES.……...….....……...........................................................................xii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION…………...………..…………………...………………………1 1.1 Why Ukraine?..... ....................................................................................1 1.2 Literature Review ....…………………...……….....……….……..........3 1.3 The Argument ...................................................……….…………..…...7 1.4 Structure of the Thesis ...............................................……..……….......11 2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND…………...…………...…………………………13 2.1 Introduction... ……………………………….........………...…..…......13 2.2 Origin of the Ukrainian Identity......................... ....................................14 2.3 Polarisation of the Western and the Eastern Ukrainian Identity......….19 2.4 The Hetmanete Years and the Bolshevik Revolution .…...….................23 2.5 Leninist and Stalinist Policies towards Ukraine .……………...…...…..25 2.6 De-Stalinisation under Khrushchev and Brezhnev.…….……......……31 2.7 Perestroika and the Dissolution of the USS R.………….........…...…....34 2.8 Conclusion……………………………………...…...…......…..………35 3. POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION DURIN G THE KRAVCHUK ERA…….... 37 3.1. Introduction…………………...……………………...…..…......…..…37 3.2. Beyond Independence………………………………..……...….……..38 3.3. Political Performance of Kravchuk……………..………......………..41 3.4. The 1994 Presidential Elections ….…………………………..…...….45 3.5. Problems of Political Transformation during the Kravchuk Era…......48 3.6. Conclusion ....……….…..……………………………………............56 4. POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION DURING THE KUCHMA ERA…………. 58 4.1. Introduction……………….……………………………………….. .…58 4.2. Political Transformation in Kuchma’s First Term…….……..……..…59 4.3. The 1999 Presidential Elections……………............……………..…..64 4.4. Political Transformation in Kuchma’s Second Term............................69 4.5. Problems of Political Transformation during the Kuchma Era …….....75 4.6. Conclusion.....………..…….………………………...….……………..83 viii 5. THE ORANGE REVOLUTION AND POST-REVOLUTIONARY UKRAINE 84 5.1. Introduction……………………….........……………...….………….84 5.2. The 2004 Presidential Elections ……………..…………...……...…..…85 5.3. The Orange Revolution………………..…………..............................90 5.4. Political Developments in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine ..........….…...97 5.5. Conclusion........…………….…………………………...…..………..101 6. C ONCLUSIONS.....................................................................................................103 BIBLIOGRAPHY.......................................................................................................111 ix LIST OF TABLES TABLES 3.1 Breakdown of Voting in the 1994 Presidential Elections…..............................47 3.2 Sources of Ethnic Identification in Ukraine in the Kravchuk Era…………….53 4.1 Results of the 1999 Presidential Elections........ ........................….................…68 4.2 Runoff Results of the 1999 Presidential Elections……………………………...68 5.1 Distribution of the Votes in the Second Round of the 2004 Elections…...… 91 5.2 Official Results of the 2004 Presidential Elections………….……….…………94 x CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION This thesis seeks to explore the factors affecting Ukraine’s political transformation under Leonid Kravchuk, and Leonid Kuchma in order to examine the dynamics of the Orange Revolution. Problems of post-Soviet transformation to democracy in Ukraine resulted in the mass mobilisation