WIDER Working Paper No. 2011/07 Are Electoral Coalitions
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A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Resnick, Danielle Working Paper Are electoral coalitions harmful for democratic consolidation in Africa? WIDER Working Paper, No. 2011/07 Provided in Cooperation with: United Nations University (UNU), World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) Suggested Citation: Resnick, Danielle (2011) : Are electoral coalitions harmful for democratic consolidation in Africa?, WIDER Working Paper, No. 2011/07, ISBN 978-92-9230-370-9, The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), Helsinki This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/54007 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. 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Danielle Resnick* February 2011 Abstract Electoral coalitions are becoming increasingly popular among opposition parties in Africa because they offer many advantages with respect to reducing party fragmentation and increasing incumbent turnovers. At the same time, however, they are often comprised of parties that are defined predominantly by their leaders’ personalities and exhibit little differentiation in terms of their policy orientation. Based on a dataset spanning all opposition coalitions since 2000 in Africa’s electoral democracies, this paper demonstrates not only that coalitions rarely defeat incumbents but also that they are only competitive when major opposition parties are involved. More significantly, the paper highlights that in many countries, a sizeable share of total electoral volatility is due to fluctuations in voting for opposition parties that have belonged to coalitions. The paper argues that such volatility reflects the inability of coalition members to build loyal constituency bases over time, which is critical for party development and broader consolidation. Keywords: Africa, campaign strategies, electoral volatility, opposition parties, party development JEL classification: D72, N30, N37, O10 Copyright © UNU-WIDER 2011 * UNU-WIDER, Helsinki. E-mail: [email protected] This study has been prepared within the UNU-WIDER project on New Directions in Development Economics. UNU-WIDER acknowledges the financial contributions to the research programme by the governments of Denmark (Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Finland (Ministry for Foreign Affairs), Sweden (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency—Sida) and the United Kingdom (Department for International Development). ISSN 1798-7237 ISBN 978-92-9230-370-9 The World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) was established by the United Nations University (UNU) as its first research and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland in 1985. The Institute undertakes applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting the developing and transitional economies, provides a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable and environmentally sustainable growth, and promotes capacity strengthening and training in the field of economic and social policy making. Work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and through networks of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world. www.wider.unu.edu [email protected] UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, 00160 Helsinki, Finland Typescript prepared by Janis Vehmaan-Kreula at UNU-WIDER The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s). Publication does not imply endorsement by the Institute or the United Nations University, nor by the programme/project sponsors, of any of the views expressed. Tables appear at the end of document. The World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) was established by the United Nations University (UNU) as its first research and training centre and started work in Helsinki, Finland in 1985. The Institute undertakes applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting the developing and transitional economies, provides a forum for the advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable and environmentally sustainable growth, and promotes capacity strengthening and training in the field of economic and social policy making. Work is carried out by staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and through networks of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world. www.wider.unu.edu [email protected] UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, 00160 Helsinki, Finland Typescript prepared by Janis Vehmaan-Kreula at UNU-WIDER The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s). Publication does not imply endorsement by the Institute or the United Nations University, nor by the programme/project sponsors, of any of the views expressed. 1 Introduction In July 2008, five Ugandan opposition parties announced the formation of the Inter- Party Cooperation coalition in order to compete against President Yoweri Museveni in the country’s 2011 elections. Similarly, in March 2009, opposition parties in Nigeria decided to form a coalition in an attempt to defeat the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2011. South Africa’s opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Independent Democrats (ID) likewise agreed in mid-2010 to an electoral alliance for forthcoming local and national elections in a bid to undermine the dominance of the ruling African National Congress (ANC). These cases represent only a few recent attempts by African opposition parties to form electoral coalitions as a means of challenging the entrenchment of ruling parties. Indeed, in a region where democratization has led to a proliferation in parties, electoral coalitions represent one means of reducing party fragmentation. As such, coalitions could enhance both the participation and contestation of opposition parties that Dahl (1971) deems critical for democracy. Moreover, opposition coalitions could facilitate the turnover of incumbent parties, which is Huntington’s (1991) minimum standard for achieving democratic consolidation. However, this paper not only illustrates that opposition coalitions rarely defeat incumbents but also argues that such coalitions further hinder democratic consolidation by preventing the development of competitive party systems. As Stepan (1990: 44) notes, opposition parties must represent ‘credible democratic alternatives’ which, among other things, involves retaining an independent ideological and institutional existence. Yet, opposition parties in Africa often lack any ideological differentiation on issues relevant to citizens. Coalitions only exacerbate this tendency by precluding parties from developing distinct platforms and thereby from garnering a loyal constituency base. Often, coalition members are only motivated by an office-seeking agenda and simply coalesce around a shared goal of ousting the ruling party. At best, this reinforces the existing tendency of voters to select parties according to the personalities of their leaders rather than their policies. At worst, it increases voter disillusionment over the lack of genuine party alternatives and may ultimately foment apathy. This paper focuses exclusively on pre-electoral coalitions rather than on governing coalitions.1 Moreover, I use the term pre-electoral coalitions to refer to two types of arrangements: (1) the coalescence of two or more political parties under one party banner for the purposes of elections or (2) negotiated pacts whereby they compete under their own individual party banners but agree to split amongst themselves the share of seats they collectively win in legislative elections.2 Explicit attention is devoted to pre- electoral coalitions by opposition parties rather than incumbents in light of the importance of opposition parties for democratic consolidation. 1 See Oyugi (2006) for an overview of post-electoral coalitions in Africa. 2 The terms coalition, electoral pacts, and alliances are used interchangeably in this paper but collectively refer to the same concept elaborated here. 1 As Powell (2000: 644) notes, theoretical and empirical work on pre-electoral coalitions remains relatively limited. Indeed, research on coalitions largely has focused on bargaining by parties within governing coalitions after elections have occurred (e.g.