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Omani Islamic Banking Sector Omani Islamic Banking Sector We initiate coverage on Bank Nizwa and Alizz Islamic Bank with BUY ratings on both Bank Nizwa BUY names, with fair values of OMR 0.114 per share and OMR 0.103 per share, respectively. Alizz Islamic Bank BUY Bank Nizwa and Alizz Islamic Bank are relatively new players in the Omani Banking sector, with operations commencing in 2013, when the Government of Oman mandated them to operate as exclusive Islamic Banks, along with license grants to six conventional banks to operate Islamic windows in the nascent Islamic banking industry in Oman. Islamic banking has achieved remarkable growth in Oman Islamic banking in Oman is growing at a faster rate than conventional banking segment, with Islamic banking assets up more than 62% YoY at the end of Feb, according to a report issued by the Central Bank of Oman (CBO). Total assets held by Islamic banks and the Islamic banking windows of conventional lenders in Feb’17 amounted to OMR3.27bn, compared to OMR2.43bn a year earlier. This took the Islamic banking’s market share from 5.1% of the banking system’s overall assets in 2015 to 10.8% by Feb’17. Teething problems of newly established Islamic banks appear to be over We expect both banks to curtail any upward pressure on their costs in a tight operating environment, especially now that their initial investments in infrastructure & human resource development appear to be over. We expect these banks to be able to sequentially bring their operating cost-to-income ratio down to the likes of other Omani banks (~40%), resulting in operating profits to increase at a CAGR of 10% for BKNZ and 14% for BKIZ during the forecast period (2017-2021). Furthermore, we do not expect cost of risk to rise as NPLs remain very low (very much lower than entire banking sector at 2.1% of total Loans) at 0.3% for BKNZ and 0.21% for BKIZ. Deferred tax amortization to have an uncertain effect on earnings Both Bank Nizwa & Alizz Islamic Bank have taxable losses available for offset against future taxable profits, which can be utilized prior to their expiry. The banks must utilize the deferred tax asset within five years of creation of that asset. For BKNZ, a total of OMR 2.94mn while for BKIZ, a total of OMR 2.53mn of deferred tax asset is available for amortization as at the end of FY16. There will be further creation of such an asset in the next two years for BKIZ where the bank is expected to make losses. In our model- building process, we have assumed a 50% amortization p.a. of the asset sequentially until it is fully exhausted. Nonetheless, in the absence of guidance on asset amortization, our estimates might vary from the actuals. Fair Values offer upsides of 24% for BKNZ and 27% for BKIZ Hettish Karmani Our fair value for BKNZ offers an upside of 24% compared to the current market price Head of Research of OMR 0.092/share. The bank is trading at an attractive PBv multiple of 1.07x for 2017 [email protected] compared to industry average of 1.28x. Our target price for BKIZ offers an upside of Tel: +968 24 94 90 34 27% compared to the current market price of OMR 0.081/share. The stock has Ayisha Zia consistently been rising over the last three months but we believe there is potential for Research Analyst more due to the upcoming OMR 30mn additional Tier 1 capital issuance (Sukuk). The [email protected] bank is trading at a PBv multiple of 0.75x for 2017 (including Tier 1 Capital), which in Tel: +968 24 94 90 36 our view is unjustified given the peer-group average PB x of 1.28. 1 Valuation Methodology We have applied Excess Returns methodology to derive fair value of OMR 0.114/share for BKNZ and OMR 0.103/share for BKIZ. We have used 2.3% US risk-free rate, 7.3% US market risk premium, a 3-Yr weekly adjusted Beta of 0.840 for BKNZ and 0.758 for BKIZ (Source: Bloomberg), and a terminal growth rate of 3.6%. For BKIZ, we have assumed a successful completion of raising OMR 30mn Tier 1 perpetual Sukuk at an assumed interest rate of 8%. Excess Returns Valuation Bank Nizwa OMR '000 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21 Beginning book value of Equity invested currently 127,760 Net Income 2,178 3,215 4,366 4,501 5,544 Less: Equity Cost 11,682 12,001 12,434 12,881 13,431 Excess Return to Equity (9,504) (8,786) (8,068) (8,380) (7,887) Present value of Excess Equity Return (9,024) (7,652) (6,445) (6,140) (5,301) Sum of present value of Excess Return (34,561) Terminal Value Assumptions Book value of equity at start of year 6 148,845 Risk-free rate (US 10-Yr) 2.3% Net income in stable period 19,499 Risk premium (US 10-Yr) 7.3% Less: Equity Cost 13,431 Country Risk 0.76% Excess Return to Equity 6,068 Beta 0.840 Terminal Value 115,902 Cost of Equity 9.0% PV of Terminal Value 77,893 Terminal RoE 13.1% Total Equity Value 171,092 Terminal growth rate 3.6% Total shares out, '000 1,500,000 Target price, OMR 0.114 Current price, OMR 0.091 Upside 25% Rating BUY Source: U Capital Research 2 Excess Returns Valuation Alizz Islamic Bank OMR'000 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20 FY-21 Beginning book value of Equity invested currently 110,510 Net Income (372) 252 441 810 1,208 Less: Interest on Tier 1 Perpetual Bonds (@8% of OMR 30mn) 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 Less: Equity Cost 9,071 8,892 8,731 8,605 8,516 Excess Return to Equity (11,844) (11,039) (10,691) (10,195) (9,707) Present value of Excess Equity Return (11,286) (9,708) (8,676) (7,636) (6,709) Sum of present value of Excess Return (44,015) Terminal Value Assumptions Book value of equity at start of year 6 101,829 Risk-free rate (US 10-Yr) 2.3% Net income in stable period 13,340 Risk premium (US 10-Yr) 7.3% Less: Interest on Tier 1 Perpetual Bonds (@8% of OMR 30mn) 2,400 Country Risk 0.8% Less: Equity Cost 8,516 Beta 0.758 Excess Return to Equity 2,424 Cost of Equity 8.4% Terminal Value 52,726 Terminal RoE 13.1% PV of Terminal Value 36,440 Terminal growth rate 3.6% Total Equity Value 102,935 Total shares out, '000 1,000,000 Target price, OMR 0.103 Current price, OMR 0.081 Upside 27% Rating BUY Source: U Capital Research Sensitivity Analysis BKNZ Stable Period ROE Growth Rate 0.114 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 0.114 2.6% 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.6% 7.0% 0.146 0.172 0.202 0.238 0.281 7.0% 0.171 0.185 0.202 0.226 0.259 8.0% 0.110 0.128 0.148 0.171 0.198 8.0% 0.132 0.139 0.148 0.159 0.173 9.0% 0.086 0.099 0.114 0.130 0.149 9.0% 0.106 0.109 0.114 0.120 0.126 10.0% 0.069 0.079 0.091 0.103 0.117 10.0% 0.086 0.088 0.091 0.094 0.097 Cost Equity of 11.0% 0.057 0.065 0.074 0.083 0.094 Cost Equity of 11.0% 0.072 0.073 0.074 0.075 0.077 BKIZ Stable Period ROE Growth Rate 0.103 11.1% 12.1% 13.1% 14.1% 15.1% 0.103 2.6% 3.1% 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% 6.4% 0.142 0.171 0.199 0.228 0.257 6.4% 0.165 0.180 0.199 0.131 0.131 7.4% 0.098 0.118 0.138 0.158 0.179 7.4% 0.123 0.130 0.138 0.106 0.106 8.4% 0.072 0.088 0.103 0.118 0.134 8.4% 0.096 0.099 0.103 0.088 0.088 9.4% 0.056 0.068 0.080 0.092 0.104 9.4% 0.077 0.079 0.080 0.074 0.074 Cost Equity of 10.4% 0.044 0.054 0.064 0.074 0.084 Cost Equity of 10.4% 0.063 0.064 0.064 0.063 0.063 Source: U Capital Research 3 Peer-Group Comparison BBG Ticker Name Price P/E (x) P/B(x) ROE, % EIB UH Equity EMIRATES ISLAMIC 7.500 135.63 5.91 4.7 MARK QD Equity MASRAF AL RAYAN 43.900 16.14 2.81 3.8 DIB UH Equity DUBAI ISLAMIC 5.800 8.00 1.81 11.2 QIBK QD Equity QATAR ISLAMIC BA 102.100 11.75 1.76 6.0 MASQ UH Equity MASHREQBANK 76.000 6.95 0.73 -22.6 ADIB UH Equity ABU DHABI ISLAMI 3.600 6.53 1.11 1.6 QIIK QD Equity QATAR INTERNATIO 60.500 11.47 1.32 1.3 KCBK QD Equity AL KHALIJ BANK 14.500 12.04 0.74 -35.4 NBS UH Equity SHARJAH ISLAMIC 1.370 7.50 0.73 -44.1 AJMANBAN UH Equity AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.190 16.35 1.02 2.8 ALMUTAHE KK Equity AHLI UNITED BANK 430.000 17.74 1.88 -24.5 SALAM BI Equity AL-SALAM BANK 0.095 12.77 0.64 58.6 BKNZ OM Equity BANK NIZWA 0.092 212.47 1.08 - BISB BI Equity BAHRAIN ISLAMIC 0.145 19.48 1.31 -19.0 BKIZ OM Equity AL IZZ ISLAMIC B 0.081 NM 1.00 14.0 Average ex-EIB 27.63 1.28 Source: Bloomberg *Price in each country's respective currency 4 Oman’s Islamic Banking Industry A brief history… In May 2011, a royal decree authorizing Islamic finance in Oman was issued.
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