What Happens Next? 2

BREXIT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? 2

FOREWORD DAVID LAMMY MP

When I entered Parliament in 2000, I came with a clear set of objectives - objectives that I still hold close to my heart today. As a Labour MP, I expect you share them with me.

I entered Parliament to fight for a fairer, more balanced Britain, with opportunities open for all races, all genders and all social classes. I entered Parliament to fight for a Britain with an economy that creates jobs for my constituents in Tottenham, and maintains a generous safety net to look after those who need help. I entered Parliament to stand up for an internationalist vision of Britain that engages with the modern world, not one that retreats into nostalgia and managed decline. Finally, I entered Parliament to oppose our adversary, the Conservative Party, whose damaging, closed-minded ideology prioritises the interests of a handful of billionaire donors over the vast majority of working people.

Friends, the aims and values we hold dear have never faced such a fundamental threat as Brexit. No single policy in our history has promised to wreak as much havoc to jobs, workers’ rights, the environment, and our role in the ‘The aims and values we world as leaving the EU. No single policy has hold dear have never faced had the power to set our country on the such a fundamental threat as wrong path for as long as this. Once we leave, Brexit.’ we leave, and it will be very difficult to rejoin. When you make the decision on whether or not to oppose Theresa May’s deal, I ask you to consider just one, simple question: will this deal serve my constituents’ interests better than our current institutional arrangements inside the EU? 3

This is the real choice our country faces – not the false one between Theresa May’s very poor deal and no deal at all. If Parliament rejects May’s deal, we have both the right and the ability to legislate for a People’s Vote, which offers the right for the UK to remain in the EU. In this situation, as EU leaders have made clear, we can postpone or revoke Article 50, to give the British public

'No single policy in our history has promised to wreak as much havoc for jobs, workers’ rights.’

time to have a final say. The defeatist argument that we need to sign-off any deal the Prime Minister comes back with, in order to avoid a no deal Brexit, is both factually misplaced and offers her a blank cheque.

When the Leave campaign narrowly won the referendum campaign in 2016, they did so by lying, breaking our electoral laws, and promising voters a land of milk and honey. Over two years of negotiations, it has become clear that this fantasy Brexit cannot be delivered. So, it is only right, fair and democratic that we ask voters to consent to the very different reality of leaving f Parliament rejects May’s the EU. ‘I deal, we have both the right Economic, moral, technical and legal and the ability to legislate for arguments aside, there remains the political and the strategic. Opposing the Conservative a People’s Vote’ government on Brexit will mobilise huge support for Labour across the country. Analysis by YouGov backs this up: pledging to give the public a final say on Brexit would win Labour an additional 1.5 million votes, and potentially dozens of seats. So by defeating the Tories on Brexit, we not only protect jobs, trade and workers’ rights by staying in the EU, we will also have the best chance of introducing Labour’s radical domestic agenda to fight inequality at home. If Labour wants to be in government, we must show we can lead, not be led by the Tories, on the biggest issue of the day. 4

1 LABOUR VOTERS WANT A FINAL SAY

WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO KEEP OUR SEATS IF WE BACK A PUBLIC VOTE ON BREXIT For all the talk of Labour needing to cater to our Leave voters, the fact is that most Labour voters voted Remain in 2016.

○○ The number of Labour voters who want a People’s Vote and to stay in the EU has only grown since then – Labour Leave voters are the group most likely to have shifted from Leave to Remain since the referendum. ○○ Just as important - Labour voters who still want to leave the EU say they are loyal to the Labour Party. Brexit is way down their list of priorities – their priority is getting a Labour government, not leaving the EU. ○○ Contrast this with our Remain voters – 47% of whom say they would vote for another party if we fail to support a People’s Vote and campaign for continued EU membership in that vote. For many Remainers this is their number one priority.

FAILING TO BACK A PEOPLE’S VOTE WOULD COST US A THIRD OF OUR VOTE, SCORES OF SEATS AND THE CHANCE OF FORMING THE NEXT GOVERNMENT. Individual polls may disagree on the exact numbers, but all point to the fact that supporting a People’s Vote and Remain is the best way to safeguard all current Labour seats – even those with large Leave majorities in 2016 – and the best way for Labour to gain marginal seats and have the chance to form a government.

“Remain voters destroyed the Conservatives’ majority by flocking to Labour as the best bet to stop a hard Brexit, a huge election study has found.” The Independent, 1 August 2017 5

IN EVERY LABOUR SEAT – EVEN SEATS THAT VOTED LEAVE – MOST LABOUR VOTERS BACKED REMAIN IN 2016. ○○ Most Labour voters are Remainers. That was true in 2016 and it’s even more true now. We owe our seats to Remainers. ○○ Most Leave voters in Labour seats in 2016 already voted against us, for the Tories or UKIP. We won these seats without them last time, we can do so again.

WE AREN’T LOSING OUR LEAVE VOTERS – BUT WE ARE GAINING REMAIN VOTERS AS LONG AS WE OPPOSE BREXIT. Since 2016, Brexit has been the main driver of voters moving between parties. ○○ A minority of Labour voters voted to Leave in 2016, but almost all of them still voted Labour in 2017. For them, a Labour government is a better, surer way to improve their lives. ○○ A poll of 30,000 people in August 2017 showed that the deciding factor for most voters in the 2017 election was Brexit, with Labour winning most Remain votes. ○○ This trend has only continued – with Labour now seen as the party of Remain vs the Tories as the party of Leave.

LABOUR HELD SEATS ARE SECURE – AND MANY MARGINALS ARE WITHIN OUR GRASP – AS LONG AS WE CONTINUE TO OPPOSE BREXIT. ○○ Polls consistently show that Labour would gain 1.5 million votes, and up to 70 marginals, by opposing Brexit and backing a public vote on the deal. ○○ Conversely, failure to support a public vote would cost Labour a third of our 2017 voters. Most of these people would go to the Liberal Democrats or the SNP – they are Remain voters for whom Brexit is their number one priority. ○○ If we fail to oppose Brexit they will go to a party that will – costing us votes and seats, and very likely keeping the Tories in government for another five years.

‘Labour could win more than 1.5 million extra voters if it backed a second referendum on Brexit, potentially delivering the party a Commons majority.’ The Guardian, 20 September 2018 6

REMAINERS WOULD GO IF WE FAIL THEM, BUT LABOUR LEAVERS ARE LOYAL TO OUR PARTY. Polls consistently show that the group most likely to have shifted their view from Leave to Remain are Labour Leave voters.

○○ For most of these people, if we kept them in 2015 and 2017 they’re going to stay with us. Their primary loyalty is to the Labour Party, not Brexit. ○○ This is partly tribalism. It’s also the slow car crash of Brexit. The confident promises and predictions made by the Leave campaign are falling flat and people are realising what’s at stake. ○○ They know that a Labour government, not Brexit, is the solution to their problems.

CAN POLLS OF LABOUR VOTERS BE TRUSTED? While polls are an inexact science, what is undeniable is that the direction of travel since 2016 has all been in one direction, from Leave to Remain.

○○ Equally undeniable is the extent of the cost to Labour support of ruling out a People’s Vote. Repeated polls show a huge loss of party support if we reject a public vote on the deal. It cannot be dismissed as a sampling error. ○○ This group, who will abandon Labour if we fail them, are the voters that we need to be worried about if we want to hold and gain Labour seats at the next election.

‘The non-Labour voters that the party could win over [by backing a People’s Vote] outnumber the Labour voters that the party risks losing by almost nine to one.’ Peter Kellner, The Guardian, 20 September 2018

‘A People’s Vote is the right thing for Labour to do if we are to stand up for the communities, public services and young people who will be hit first and worst by the kind of Brexit that people like Boris Johnson want to impose on us. Supporting a People’s Vote is also the right thing for us to do if we want to win a general election.’ David Lammy, September 2018 7

LABOUR’S ROUTE TO POWER RUNS 2 THROUGH A PEOPLE’S VOTE

VOTING DOWN MAY’S DEAL IS THE BEST CHOICE FOR THE LABOUR PARTY Britain needs a Labour government. Conservative policies have – in the words of the UN – ‘inflicted unnecessary misery on the poorest’. Economic growth has fallen far behind our peers. We need to fight for every vote to stop this.

○○ Labour is more likely to win a general election if we back a People’s Vote. ○○ Backing a new vote could be our only route to power. If we support a new vote we gain 1.5 million votes and up to 70 seats. If we refuse one we would lose a third of our voters – denying us votes, seats and a shot at government. ○○ In power we would need a viable economy. If it goes ahead, Brexit would cause economic chaos and stagnation, taking away our ability to bring the radical transformation the country needs. ○○ A People’s Vote would give us the chance to set out our vision for a fairer Britain, and to contrast this with the certainty of continued Tory austerity as the economy crashed following Brexit. ○○ Labour would look like a government in waiting with a clear answer to people’s real world concerns. Contrast this with a divided Conservative Party obsessed with Europe.

BRITAIN NEEDS A LABOUR GOVERNMENT The government’s record since 2010 has been appalling. Poverty has risen, inequality has worsened, our infrastructure is crumbling and our economy has been one of the worst performing major nations in Europe and across the world.

‘In the West Midlands, a free trade deal would result in an 8% hit to growth, compared with 13% under no deal, and 2.5% if the UK stays in the single market.’ The Independent, 7 February 2018

‘The North-east would take an 11 per cent hit to economic growth under the Government’s preferred outcome of a free trade deal with the EU, while leaving with no deal will result in a 16 per cent dip.’ The Independent, 7 February 2018

IN POWER LABOUR WILL NEED A FUNCTIONING ECONOMY TO GOVERN The 2017 manifesto mapped Labour’s route to a fairer future. Our ability to implement this programme depends on inheriting a viable economy.

○○ Brexit has already cost us 2% of GDP. The whole country would lose far more were Brexit to go ahead – with Labour communities losing out the most. ○○ The chaos and stagnation that would follow Brexit would make our job all the harder. As the economy struggled and the tax take fell, we would have less money to undo years of austerity and invest in the future.

LABOUR’S ROUTE TO POWER RUNS THROUGH A PUBLIC VOTE ON THE BREXIT DEAL ○○ We should oppose Brexit because of its impacts on jobs, wages, public services and workers’ rights. We should oppose it too because by doing so we maximise our chances of gaining a Labour government. ○○ Opposing Brexit is Labour’s route to safeguarding existing seats and to gaining more votes and winning marginal seats. It is the route to a Labour government. ○○ By backing a new vote we would gain 1.5 million votes and up to 70 seats in a general election. ○○ In contrast, failure to support a public vote would cost us a third of our vote: with Remainers abandoning us and Leavers staying with the Tories.

LABOUR’S RADICAL VISION VS TORY AUSTERITY ○○ Opposition parties get few opportunities outside a general election to set out their 9

programme. In a People’s Vote campaign we could contrast our vision for a fairer Britain overnment austerity policies with ongoing Tory austerity and the damage ‘G and the dismantling of the social caused by Brexit. safety net have entrenched poverty ○○ The choice in a new vote would be between continued austerity, job losses and and inflicted unnecessary misery worse public services under the Tories’ Brexit on the poorest people in the United plan, or renewed engagement in the EU, Kingdom.’ investment in public services and more and Philip Alston, the UN special rapporteur on extreme better jobs under Labour. poverty and human rights, 16 November 2018 ○○ The Leave campaign capitalised on voters’ desire for change – but the solutions they offered weren’t real. In a People’s Vote campaign we could offer people real hope – more jobs, more security, a fully funded NHS and a house building programme fit for the 21st century.

LABOUR’S CHOICE: AIM FOR GOVERNMENT OR IRRELEVANCE By opposing Brexit, Labour has the chance to lead the nation and set ourselves up as a government in waiting. 10

A government failure in a new referendum would leave the Tories without a programme and seen to have failed the biggest political challenge of our times. In Brexit’s absence their failures in the NHS, housing, work, living standards and transport would become even more apparent.

In all likelihood the government would fall immediately, or failing that would limp to the next election as the Major government did prior to their landslide defeat in 1997. ‘In a tight general election, Labour would look like winners and a government in [supporting a People’s Vote] waiting, having had the opportunity to set out our could make the difference programme of hope to the country. between returning to A BREXIT DEAL SETS THE TORIES UP FOR government and remaining in SUCCESS opposition.’ The alternative makes the Tories a success and Peter Kellner, The Independent, leaves Labour on the sidelines. 20 September 2018 If Brexit goes through the Tories suddenly look like a success. We know that the effects of Brexit would be disastrous, but with a deal – any deal – this would be disguised by the transition period. Most voters would see any ‘deal’ as a win compared to ’no deal’, giving the Tories a boost and potentially setting them up for an election win.

Labour would get no boost from Brexit going through in the short term, but as the damage became clear we would shoulder some of the blame for not having stopped Brexit when given the chance.

DEFENCE OF OUR DEMOCRACY This is Labour’s chance to stand up for democracy. The Tories are intent on disenfranchising voters, from their attempts to introduce mandatory ID checks to their boundary review. Their refusal to back a public vote is yet another example of removing democracy from the people.

As the largest and most democratic party in Western Europe, Labour has long demonstrated its commitment to party democracy. We should trust in, and express, the same principles when it comes to the general public and put the choice of deal, no deal, or remain to the people. 11

WHAT ABOUT LEAVE VOTERS’ CONCERNS? Leave voters’ concerns are Labour concerns – jobs, wages, rising insecurity, lack of housing, the social consequences of a failed immigration and integration policy.

○○ Labour voters, whether they voted Leave or Remain, need to know that the EU is not their enemy – the Tories are. ○○ Cuts to public services, austerity, the strain on the NHS and the rising insecurity of employment and housing are not the fault of the EU, but are choices made by this Government for its own agenda. ○○ The EU has been used as a scapegoat for the Government’s own failings. Opposing Tory Brexit is the perfect platform from which to show that the real enemy is a failed Tory government, and the real solution a radical Labour government.

‘I believe a referendum will happen. As people come to the conclusion that since 2016 the situation has changed...they will want to have the final say.’ Gordon Brown, 12 November 2018 12

DEAL OR NO DEAL - TORY BREXIT 3 WOULD BE A DISASTER

VOTING DOWN MAY’S DEAL IS THE BEST CHOICE FOR THE COUNTRY Brexit is the most destructive set of policies put to the electorate. ○○ No deal is a disaster – but May’s deal is little better. All it does it defer the pain. ○○ May’s agreement is a road to nowhere. It would not satisfy Leave voters – we would be rule takers with less say over the running of our economy than any other nation in Europe. ○○ The economic harm done, combined with the national loss of pride, could inflame the far right. ○○ We have other options. Once May’s agreement is voted down MPs can take control, blocking no deal. MPs can then back a general election, a People’s Vote or an extension of Article 50 to allow more time for negotiations.

BREXIT IS THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE SET OF POLICIES EVER PUT TO THE ELECTORATE ○○ In a general election no party would put forward a platform of inevitable job losses, cuts to the tax take and public services, economic decline and a diminished role on the world stage. ○○ No party would present the lost opportunity of living and working in 27 other countries as a net benefit, or the loss of sovereignty and control given our inevitable status as EU rule takers, as a win for Britain. ○○ When the real world effects of Brexit are separated from Brexit mania it is very simply the most destructive set of policies ever presented to the electorate.

THERE IS NO GOOD BREXIT DEAL ○○ None of us came into politics to make our constituents poorer, or to risk all that we have worked for over years and decades for the sake of keeping the Tory Party together. ○○ The Government’s own impact assessments show that all varieties of Brexit on offer would

‘Why is May talking up the prospect of no-deal even when it remains inconceivable? This is the real “project fear”. She hopes that just enough talk of stockpiling food and medicine will blackmail just enough MPs into voting for her EU deal.’ The Irish Times, 1 August 2018 13

make Britain poorer, significantly so in the case of anything other than staying very Workers’ rights and environmental closely linked to the EU through single market protections membership. The withdrawal agreement does not safeguard workers’ rights or environmental protections. We ○○ The more distant our relationship with the EU would no longer follow improved protections in becomes, the worse our economic prospects. either area.

○○ Every sector of the economy, and every Worse - we would be able to alter existing region of the UK, would be harmed. New trade protections if we argued that new rules provided deals would take years to agree and have no the same level of protections. chance of compensating for lost EU trade. Crucially, there would be no external enforcement. The Government would be able to do as it pleased, ○○ Even EEA membership, touted by some as with itself as the only arbiter. Brexit would give the a safe haven, would lead to a 2% hit to the Tories control and they would have to answer only economy according to the Government’s to themselves. own assessments; equal to the loss of GDP in the financial crisis but sustained over decades.

DEAL OR NO DEAL, THE RESULTS ARE DIRE The Government want us to believe that Chequers is a safe haven from no deal. The reality is that both are terrible. Both destroy jobs, dissuade investment, cripple the frictionless just-in-time supply chains that are vital for our manufacturing companies and sacrifice the hard- won peace in Northern Ireland by imposing borders either in Ireland or the Irish Sea. ‘Since the very beginning we have had no doubt that Brexit is a lose-lose situation Both would take our service sector – 80% and that our negotiations are only about of our economy – out of our main export damage control.’ market. Both would harm manufacturing Donald Tusk, 15 November 2018 as many products make their money from after-sales services. Both would take us outside the Customs Union and Single Market, police cooperation, technical agencies or other aspects of European cooperation that keep us prosperous and secure.

‘No deal’ is worse because the impact is felt immediately; but Chequers does much the same, just a few years later.

○○ May’s agreement is a road to nowhere. ○○ May’s agreement would lead to years he UK will be worse off after Brexit or decades of uncertainty. ‘T regardless of the terms of its departure from ○○ It agrees next to nothing about the the EU, according to a leaked Government future relationship, and even her Chequers impact assessment.’ proposal is just a wish list. The Independent, 30 January 2018 14

The withdrawal agreement provides no clarity over our future relationship. It is a road to nowhere, a fudge designed to get through a parliamentary vote while leaving the substantive decisions for another day.

It would in all likelihood leave us in the exit lounge of the EU but unable to get any further. We would be bound to it until an agreement could be struck that would keep an open border on the island of Ireland – a deal that will be as impossible ten years from now ‘Normally in a negotiation you as it is today. set your long-term objectives and work out how to achieve them. RULE TAKERS INSTEAD OF RULE MAKERS But whatever the deal is and with If we go ahead with Brexit, we face an unpalatable or without a deal the long-term choice: either we leave the customs union and single questions about Britain’s future market and take a huge economic hit, or we stay in will remain unanswered and them to minimise the hit and have to follow rules unresolved.’ which we would no longer have a say on. Neither is Gordon Brown, 12 November 2018 good for Britain.

The UK, a former great power and still the 6th wealthiest country on Earth, would suffer the ignominy of taking rules from the EU while having no say in them.

Anyone who thinks that this would calm the State Aid nationalists and the far right needs to think again, The withdrawal agreement changes and remember that this loss of national pride would nothing on state aid - in fact it binds us to take place in the midst of an extended economic cut and paste new EU legislation on state downturn. aid into UK law. If May’s agreement goes through the UK would lose any ability to WE HAVE OTHER OPTIONS influence state aid rules, even if a new trade agreement is put in place. In this and ur choice is not just between no deal and a O many other areas we would become the bad deal. least autonomous country in Europe.

If May’s deal is rejected, as it should be, Parliament is in the driving seat. The question then becomes what Parliament will do with its power.

If public opinion was resolutely behind Brexit it would be hard to take a stand against it.

In reality all the movement since 2016 has been away from Brexit and towards Remain, particularly among Labour voters. The campaign for a public vote on the deal has been far more successful than many people had thought possible, opening the political space for a new vote to be backed as not only the most democratic way forward, but also as the most popular. 15

4 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

MAY WANTS US TO BELIEVE IT’S HER DEAL OR NO DEAL – THIS COULD NOT BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. ○○ Parliament is sovereign and can instruct the Government to act. ○○ Voting down May’s agreement lets MPs take control. ○○ May’s agreement would lead to years of uncertainty. The only way to move on from Brexit and address the real challenges in our society is to stay in the EU. ○○ ‘No deal’ is near impossible – MPs can act to prevent it. ○○ A no confidence motion in the Government would result in a general election and a new Government. ○○ Because of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act, Parliament can also issue a no confidence motion on a specific policy area, including Brexit, without precipitating a general election. ○○ As a result, MPs could require certain actions, for example the extension of Article 50 or a People’s Vote, without which we could instruct the government to revoke Article 50.

VOTING DOWN THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT LETS MPS TAKE here will be opportunities to CONTROL ‘T make the majority against no Once May’s agreement is voted down deal heard. Motions will be tabled, Parliament has fresh choices to make amendments will be pressed and a no to prevent no deal and aim for a better confidence vote can be triggered.’ outcome. Keir Starmer, 19 November 2018 Parliament’s options include extending Article 50, revoking Article 50 to press pause or revert to full membership, amending the meaningful vote, negotiating membership of the

‘Neither the EU nor the UK would welcome no deal. If that outcome loomed they would try to continue negotiating to find an alternative.’ Charles Grant, Centre for European Reform, 16 November 2018 16

EEA or, the most popular choice among the public, a People’s Vote. Several mechanisms are available to MPs to oppose no deal. Ultimately Parliament, not the Government, The Institute for Government has estimated the holds the right to invoke or revoke Article 50. Government’s own technical notices for no deal As a last resort MPs could simply require the commit to further legislation in 51 areas. This Government to revoke Article 50 through a would open up a significant number of areas where Parliament could seek to pass amendments vote of no confidence in their Brexit policy, preventing no deal. a vote which would surely take place well Other potential parliamentary devices could before March 29th if no progress is made. include Opposition Day motions, a no confidence No deal would only happen if Parliament did vote in the Government or seeking to table and pass amendments to other parliamentary legislation. nothing – almost inconceivable given the political and economic consequences.

CHEQUERS WOULD LEAD TO YEARS OF UNCERTAINTY Accepting the withdrawal agreement takes us to years of uncertainty. Voting it down is the first step to putting Parliament in control.

○○ The withdrawal agreement is not a final deal. It concludes next to nothing about our future relationship. ○○ There will be no certainty for business as most trade deals take many years to agree. ○○ The one thing that would change is that we give up our right to have a say in the rules we follow during the transition period. Chequers is the Government’s proposal for a future relationship; but nothing has been agreed. Worse, large parts of it have been ruled as unacceptable by the European Union.

OPTIONS FOR PARLIAMENT Parliament is sovereign and can instruct the Government to act. ○○ The Government can be deposed by a vote of no confidence, leading to a General Election. This is the preferred Labour policy. ○○ Parliament is not restricted to general motions of no confidence to provoke General Elections; it can also pass motions of no confidence in specific policies and direct the Government to undertake certain actions.

‘Any MP that votes for the Withdrawal Agreement votes for years of uncertainty for business, Government and public services. Government would be consumed by the need to negotiate new agreements – preventing us from focusing on the real world challenges we face.’ 17

○○ Historically, these have usually produced a General Election as the Government resigned if a major policy was challenged. Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, it can no longer do this and so has to do as instructed. We therefore have a means to direct the Government. This could be used to extend Article 50, to hold a Public Vote or to revoke the notification. Parliament has the right to do this, and the Opposition has the right to table these motions to test the authority and policy of the Government.

This is the very heart of our constitution. The Government represents the Crown and this question of who rules the country – Crown or Parliament – was decided centuries ago. It is Parliament that is sovereign.

WHAT ABOUT THE EU? The EU don’t want to renegotiate – but they would extend Article 50 for a General Election or a People’s Vote.

The EU is reluctant to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. From their perspective, they have negotiated an agreement with the UK and there is no time or desire to revisit it. For them, the agreement fulfils the purpose of ensuring that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland, regardless of what is agreed for the future trading relationship.

The whole UK-EU customs relationship might never happen. It’s in the withdrawal agreement only to ensure that there is no hard border, even after the end of the transition period.

For the Labour Party this matters. We are committed to being part of a Customs Union. This agreement doesn’t take us there – it simply says it’s a last resort if nothing else is agreed. The Tories would much rather take us out of the customs union altogether.

If we want more time to get this right we will have to have a Public Vote. The EU want to avoid no deal – but are unlikely to extend Article 50 unless there is a General Election or a People’s Vote.

WHAT IF THERE IS NO AGREEMENT TO VOTE ON? Parliament can still take control. If the Government’s Withdrawal Agreement falls apart, what happens then?

The Government is maintaining that we would leave with no agreement – threatening the same scenario as if Parliament rejects an agreement. For the reasons given above, that will not happen and Parliament can and will assert its constitutional authority. 18 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Do the UK and EU yes conclude a withdrawal no agreement?

Parliament votes on agreement Has EU declared that no under the ‘meaningful vote’ amends agreement can be reached?

yes no Extend A50 & approves rejects People’s Vote

Does Does Government Government change policy by Does the no Government resign? change policy? 21st January?

yes no yes no yes

Labour tables general passes motion of no confidence

loses General Election

Labour tables directed motion of This motion can no confidence in be retabled Government Brexit passes policy & instructs new policy

Leave EU on 29th loses March 2019 21-month transition (following rules with no say on them) Crash out of EU Extension Future relationship still to without agreement of Article 50 be decided on 29th March 2019 Deadline and • No trade deal agreed Happens if Conservatives, People’s Vote • No stability for or just a few of them, don’t businesses agree a change policy 19 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Do the UK and EU SUMMARY yes conclude a withdrawal no agreement? ○○ MPs have many options at their disposal to prevent or mitigate Brexit but the Government is trying to pretend the only choice is between bad or worse. Parliament votes on agreement Has EU declared that no ○○ As the flowchart shows, there are three more options available which they don’t want you to under the ‘meaningful vote’ amends agreement can be reached? consider. But they are there and we would only end up at one of the bad ones if Parliament fails to choose a better course. yes no Extend A50 & ○○ One thing is certain – if there is damage from Brexit it will be because the Conservatives approves rejects People’s Vote refused to change course, despite warnings from every corner of our country. ○○ If Labour opposes a harmful Brexit the Tories will own the damage. Only by supporting Brexit Does Does Government Government change policy by could Labour share the blame. Does the no Government resign? change policy? 21st January? CONCLUSION yes no yes no yes ○○ Voters want a better, more secure and more prosperous future. They will judge us on our Labour tables general ability to deliver this and on our ability to govern responsibly. passes motion of no confidence ○○ The Government is resorting to scare tactics to try to convince us that their deal is the only option. In reality we have options that can lead us away from the Brexit disaster towards a general loses election, a People’s Vote and a Labour Government. General Election ○○ Voting for May’s deal would be to choose years of uncertainty. It would be a gift to the Tories and would leave future Governments bound up in negotiations over future trade arrangements Labour tables and other treaties for years, not only with the EU but with every other nation we have agreements directed motion of This motion can no confidence in with via the EU. be retabled Government Brexit passes ○○ The real challenges our country faces – inequality, homelessness, integration, the North / policy & instructs new policy South divide, the need for a new social security contract that has public trust and an immigration system that has public buy in, climate change and social care – would go undealt with. ○○ Now is the time to oppose the Tories, to make clear that they, and not the EU, bear responsibility Leave EU on 29th loses March 2019 for the insecurity and inequality that cause so much suffering, and to offer hope to the country 21-month transition through a People’s Vote and a Labour Government. (following rules with no say on them) Crash out of EU Extension Future relationship still to without agreement of Article 50 be decided on 29th March 2019 Deadline and ‘The only way to make Brexit end so that Government can begin • No trade deal agreed Happens if Conservatives, People’s Vote to address the real problems we face is to vote the withdrawal • No stability for or just a few of them, don’t agreement down and lead the campaign for Remain in a People’s businesses agree a change policy Vote.’ 20

LABOUR FOR A PEOPLE’S VOTE Labour for a People’s Vote is a grassroots campaign run by Labour members who want to see the election of a Labour government and an end to Brexit. We are committed to seeing existing Labour MPs keep their seats, and to the election of more, so that we can form a Government and change our nation for the better. We believe that the best route to electoral success and a transformative Government is to back a People’s Vote and to support our membership of the European Union in that vote. This view is supported by all credible polling data. Brexit is a Conservative project that would only do harm to the communities we serve. It would put at risk decades worth of Labour achievements in social justice, workers’ rights, environmental protections and public services. It would destroy a swathe of UK industries, much as the Thatcher governments hollowed out coal and steel, leaving communities bereft of work and a source of pride. Opposing Brexit gives Labour the chance to protect the communities we serve, and the businesses and industries that provide employment for vast numbers of our constituents. As it becomes increasingly evident that Brexit is a disaster waiting to happen, and public opinion moves more decisively against it, Labour has the chance to expose the Tories’ failure in government, to make clear that voters’ true enemy is Conservative policy and not our membership of the European Union, and to make the case for a Labour Government focused on fairness, social justice and Labour values.

Labour for a People’s Vote is a limited company registered at Aizlewoods Mill, Nursery Street, Sheffield, S3 8GG. Company number 11430576.

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