1 BREXIT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? 2 FOREWORD DAVID LAMMY MP When I entered Parliament in 2000, I came with a clear set of objectives - objectives that I still hold close to my heart today. As a Labour MP, I expect you share them with me. I entered Parliament to fight for a fairer, more balanced Britain, with opportunities open for all races, all genders and all social classes. I entered Parliament to fight for a Britain with an economy that creates jobs for my constituents in Tottenham, and maintains a generous safety net to look after those who need help. I entered Parliament to stand up for an internationalist vision of Britain that engages with the modern world, not one that retreats into nostalgia and managed decline. Finally, I entered Parliament to oppose our adversary, the Conservative Party, whose damaging, closed-minded ideology prioritises the interests of a handful of billionaire donors over the vast majority of working people. Friends, the aims and values we hold dear have never faced such a fundamental threat as Brexit. No single policy in our history has promised to wreak as much havoc to jobs, workers’ rights, the environment, and our role in the ‘The aims and values we world as leaving the EU. No single policy has hold dear have never faced had the power to set our country on the such a fundamental threat as wrong path for as long as this. Once we leave, Brexit.’ we leave, and it will be very difficult to rejoin. When you make the decision on whether or not to oppose Theresa May’s deal, I ask you to consider just one, simple question: will this deal serve my constituents’ interests better than our current institutional arrangements inside the EU? 3 This is the real choice our country faces – not the false one between Theresa May’s very poor deal and no deal at all. If Parliament rejects May’s deal, we have both the right and the ability to legislate for a People’s Vote, which offers the right for the UK to remain in the EU. In this situation, as EU leaders have made clear, we can postpone or revoke Article 50, to give the British public 'No single policy in our history has promised to wreak as much havoc for jobs, workers’ rights.’ time to have a final say. The defeatist argument that we need to sign-off any deal the Prime Minister comes back with, in order to avoid a no deal Brexit, is both factually misplaced and offers her a blank cheque. When the Leave campaign narrowly won the referendum campaign in 2016, they did so by lying, breaking our electoral laws, and promising voters a land of milk and honey. Over two years of negotiations, it has become clear that this fantasy Brexit cannot be delivered. So, it is only right, fair and democratic that we ask voters to consent to the very different reality of leaving f Parliament rejects May’s the EU. ‘I deal, we have both the right Economic, moral, technical and legal and the ability to legislate for arguments aside, there remains the political and the strategic. Opposing the Conservative a People’s Vote’ government on Brexit will mobilise huge support for Labour across the country. Analysis by YouGov backs this up: pledging to give the public a final say on Brexit would win Labour an additional 1.5 million votes, and potentially dozens of seats. So by defeating the Tories on Brexit, we not only protect jobs, trade and workers’ rights by staying in the EU, we will also have the best chance of introducing Labour’s radical domestic agenda to fight inequality at home. If Labour wants to be in government, we must show we can lead, not be led by the Tories, on the biggest issue of the day. 4 1 LABOUR VOTERS WANT A FINAL SAY WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO KEEP OUR SEATS IF WE BACK A PUBLIC VOTE ON BREXIT For all the talk of Labour needing to cater to our Leave voters, the fact is that most Labour voters voted Remain in 2016. ○ The number of Labour voters who want a People’s Vote and to stay in the EU has only grown since then – Labour Leave voters are the group most likely to have shifted from Leave to Remain since the referendum. ○ Just as important - Labour voters who still want to leave the EU say they are loyal to the Labour Party. Brexit is way down their list of priorities – their priority is getting a Labour government, not leaving the EU. ○ Contrast this with our Remain voters – 47% of whom say they would vote for another party if we fail to support a People’s Vote and campaign for continued EU membership in that vote. For many Remainers this is their number one priority. FAILING TO BACK A PEOPLE’S VOTE WOULD COST US A THIRD OF OUR VOTE, SCORES OF SEATS AND THE CHANCE OF FORMING THE NEXT GOVERNMENT. Individual polls may disagree on the exact numbers, but all point to the fact that supporting a People’s Vote and Remain is the best way to safeguard all current Labour seats – even those with large Leave majorities in 2016 – and the best way for Labour to gain marginal seats and have the chance to form a government. “Remain voters destroyed the Conservatives’ majority by flocking to Labour as the best bet to stop a hard Brexit, a huge election study has found.” The Independent, 1 August 2017 5 IN EVERY LABOUR SEAT – EVEN SEATS THAT VOTED LEAVE – MOST LABOUR VOTERS BACKED REMAIN IN 2016. ○ Most Labour voters are Remainers. That was true in 2016 and it’s even more true now. We owe our seats to Remainers. ○ Most Leave voters in Labour seats in 2016 already voted against us, for the Tories or UKIP. We won these seats without them last time, we can do so again. WE AREN’T LOSING OUR LEAVE VOTERS – BUT WE ARE GAINING REMAIN VOTERS AS LONG AS WE OPPOSE BREXIT. Since 2016, Brexit has been the main driver of voters moving between parties. ○ A minority of Labour voters voted to Leave in 2016, but almost all of them still voted Labour in 2017. For them, a Labour government is a better, surer way to improve their lives. ○ A poll of 30,000 people in August 2017 showed that the deciding factor for most voters in the 2017 election was Brexit, with Labour winning most Remain votes. ○ This trend has only continued – with Labour now seen as the party of Remain vs the Tories as the party of Leave. LABOUR HELD SEATS ARE SECURE – AND MANY MARGINALS ARE WITHIN OUR GRASP – AS LONG AS WE CONTINUE TO OPPOSE BREXIT. ○ Polls consistently show that Labour would gain 1.5 million votes, and up to 70 marginals, by opposing Brexit and backing a public vote on the deal. ○ Conversely, failure to support a public vote would cost Labour a third of our 2017 voters. Most of these people would go to the Liberal Democrats or the SNP – they are Remain voters for whom Brexit is their number one priority. ○ If we fail to oppose Brexit they will go to a party that will – costing us votes and seats, and very likely keeping the Tories in government for another five years. ‘Labour could win more than 1.5 million extra voters if it backed a second referendum on Brexit, potentially delivering the party a Commons majority.’ The Guardian, 20 September 2018 6 REMAINERS WOULD GO IF WE FAIL THEM, BUT LABOUR LEAVERS ARE LOYAL TO OUR PARTY. Polls consistently show that the group most likely to have shifted their view from Leave to Remain are Labour Leave voters. ○ For most of these people, if we kept them in 2015 and 2017 they’re going to stay with us. Their primary loyalty is to the Labour Party, not Brexit. ○ This is partly tribalism. It’s also the slow car crash of Brexit. The confident promises and predictions made by the Leave campaign are falling flat and people are realising what’s at stake. ○ They know that a Labour government, not Brexit, is the solution to their problems. CAN POLLS OF LABOUR VOTERS BE TRUSTED? While polls are an inexact science, what is undeniable is that the direction of travel since 2016 has all been in one direction, from Leave to Remain. ○ Equally undeniable is the extent of the cost to Labour support of ruling out a People’s Vote. Repeated polls show a huge loss of party support if we reject a public vote on the deal. It cannot be dismissed as a sampling error. ○ This group, who will abandon Labour if we fail them, are the voters that we need to be worried about if we want to hold and gain Labour seats at the next election. ‘The non-Labour voters that the party could win over [by backing a People’s Vote] outnumber the Labour voters that the party risks losing by almost nine to one.’ Peter Kellner, The Guardian, 20 September 2018 ‘A People’s Vote is the right thing for Labour to do if we are to stand up for the communities, public services and young people who will be hit first and worst by the kind of Brexit that people like Boris Johnson want to impose on us. Supporting a People’s Vote is also the right thing for us to do if we want to win a general election.’ David Lammy, September 2018 7 LABOUR’S ROUTE TO POWER RUNS 2 THROUGH A PEOPLE’S VOTE VOTING DOWN MAY’S DEAL IS THE BEST CHOICE FOR THE LABOUR PARTY Britain needs a Labour government.