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RIFLES BATTALION MANNING Historic Strength Data (1995 - 2011)

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RIFLES BATTALION MANNING Historic Strength Data (1995 - 2011) ARMY 2020 DATA - INFANTRY RESTRUCTURING Following the Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) in 2010 a wide ranging study into the future size and structure of the Army was initiated by the Chief of the General Staff (CGS). This study, known as Army 2020, took note of the anticipated requirements outlined in the SDSR report along with the plans outlined in the Defence Transformation announcement of 18 July 2011 for an integrated Army of 120,000 consisting of 82,000 regular personnel, 30,000 trained reservists and a margin for 8,000 Reservists in training, and proposed a future Army structure that would be able to meet these. The outcome of this study was announced in the House on 5 July (Official Report 5 July 2012: Column 1085) and included the decision that the Army would reduce the number of Infantry battalions in the Army’s Order of Battle from 36 to 31 battalions. The Army took account of a number of criteria in reaching the decision on which battalions would be withdrawn. These were: • maintaining a Regimental system which is largely regionally aligned; • demographic sustainability of Regiments according to projected regional supply of recruits in the 2020 timeframe; • proportionality of outcome, with no Regimental cap badge deletions and no regiment losing more than one battalion in a re-organisation; • balancing the whole Infantry structure to maintain variety of roles and parity of opportunity of experience for officers and soldiers; • taking account of previous decisions on mergers and deletions; • historical manning performance; and • ensuring a solution that the Army would see as fair and equitable. Drawing on demographic data produced by the Office for National Statistics for the age cohort across the UK from which Infantry recruits are typically drawn (15-29 age group), and taking account of historical trends in terms of the percentage of that cohort likely to join the Army, an assessment was made of which regiments were likely to be the least sustainable in the future if they retained their current structure. This work also included a comparison of each regiment’s historical outflow so the likely recruiting requirement could be determined. The Army’s analysis showed that those regiments likely to be the least sustainable in future were the Royal Regiment of Scotland (predicted to be 1.75 battalions short), The Yorkshire Regiment (predicted to be 0.8 battalions short), The Mercian Regiment (predicted to be 0.56 battalions short) and the Royal Welsh Regiment (predicted to be 0.55 battalions short). It was therefore decided to remove one battalion from each of these regiments. After the removal of these four battalions, and taking account of the criteria that there should be no Regimental cap badge deletions and no regiment losing more than one battalion, determining the fifth battalion to be withdrawn required the application of criteria that went wider than demographics. Taking account of the need to maintain equity of opportunity across the Infantry Divisions and therefore having discounted those regiments that were already losing a battalion, and those which were single battalion regiments, options were reduced to taking a battalion from one of four Divisions of Infantry: The Rifles. The Parachute Regiment The King’s Division: The Duke of Lancaster’s Regiment, The Yorkshire Regiment. The Queen’s Division: The Princess of Wales’s Royal Regiment, The Royal Regiment of Fusiliers (RRF), The Royal Anglian Regiment. The Rifles were discounted as they had already undergone the most Regimental amalgamation during the last two reorganisations and demographic projections suggested that they will remain the most strongly manned out to 2020. The Parachute Regiment was excluded on account of its specific and unique role. The King’s Division had already been reduced under the Future Infantry Structure (FIS) of 2005, taking it from six battalions to five, and was to be reduced again to four battalions by having a Yorkshire Battalion earmarked for removal from the Order of Battle. Taking this into account, the Army decided that the remaining Infantry battalion ought to be found from The Queen’s Division Regiments; this Division had not been affected by the FIS reductions of 2005, had retained the same scale of three Regiments, each with two battalions, since 1994, and would otherwise have had six battalions in comparison to other Divisions with five or less. When reviewing manning performance from across The Queen’s Division, the RRF, with average historical undermanning of 13.3% since FIS, proved to be the historically least well manned of the three regiments and was therefore determined to be the one from which a battalion should be withdrawn. After the withdrawal of five battalions from across the Infantry, the Army’s analysis showed that future manning should be sustainable with sufficient recruits predicted to fill the necessary posts across all battalions. The key information used by the Army to inform the decisions made is attached in the following annexes. List of Annexes Annex A – A Record of British Infantry Amalgamation and Disbandment – 1958 to 2007 This is a historic chart showing how the Infantry has changed structurally since 1958, including previous amalgamations and disbandments. Annex B - Historic Manning Data Manning data is provided at Divisional, Regimental and Battalion level. These sheets show the following a. Required manning level (the establishment) - shaded gray. b. Actual manning level (the strength) – black line c. Over and under manning (surplus/deficits) - red and blue bars This data has been compiled from the Infantry Battalion Strength Report which is produced quarterly using manning figures provided by individual battalions. It is a readily available source of data. The sheets also highlight the Future Infantry Structure (FIS) period which was the last significant change in Infantry structures. The data also marks where operational deployments have been undertaken. This historic data was not the primary decision making tool. It was only used once the forward looking demographic data had identified the first four battalions for withdrawal. Annex C - Average Infantry Battalion Manning This sheet was developed from the historic manning data and summarises the historic average surplus and deficit strength by battalion and ranks them in order of manning. Annex D - Infantry Battalion Outflow A set of three sheets showing the percentage outflows against strength by Battalion due to completion of service, premature voluntary release (PVR) and services no longer required (SNLR). There are a number of reasons why personnel may opt for PVR – both personal and service related. Personnel may leave the Army due to SNLR for a number of administrative reasons, not all of which imply that the individual is at fault in any way. Outflow was not a major influencing factor in the decision making process. There are so many variants– both personal decisions and service constraints - which contribute to outflow that it was not considered a reasonable driver for deletions. Annex E - Commenting on the Logical Integrity of Regional Definitions/Boundaries This sets out the difference between the existing Regional Boundaries used in the Army’s recruiting activities and the UK’s political and economic regional boundaries. This is important as the data used by the Army to determine the future demographics was collected from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website and is based on slightly different geographic areas. The data had to be adjusted to reflect actual Infantry recruiting areas. It includes two maps which show the variation. Annex F - Population Projection by the Office for National Statistics This is an extract of 2010 data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showing the population projection out to 2020. ONS source data: 2010 - Based National Population Projections - published 23 November 2011 Annex G - Sustaining Regional Infantry Regiments – Recruiting Pool This chart shows the number of males in the age bracket 15 to 29 years (which is the current Infantry recruiting pool) in both 2010 and 2020. The data has been derived from ONS source data: 2010 - Based National Population Projections - published 23 November 2011 (Annex F). Annex H - Estimate of Sustainability These tables show the outcome of the demographic work on how many battalions of manning are sustainable in the future. Annex I - Sustaining Regional Infantry Regiments There are three sets of this data at Regional, Divisional and Regimental level showing how we expect recruiting performance to vary between 2010 and 2020 in line with ONS population projections (Annex F). Each set of data has also been produced three times – baseline forecast, optimistic and pessimistic – to acknowledge that we have had to make some assumptions on how the population may change, thereby giving an expected view along with best and worst case scenarios. Annex J - Assessment of Future Demographic Supply in Relation to Regimental Demand This sheet shows how regimental sustainability will change as successive Battalions are removed, and which should be next in line for removal based solely on demographic information. It should be noted that after the removal of four battalions, and taking account of the criteria that there should be no Regimental cap badge deletions and no regiment losing more than one battalion, determining the fifth battalion to be withdrawn required the application of criteria that went wider than demographics. ANNEX A A Record
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