Energy Security and Climate Change in South Asia: a Threat Analysis for Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka

March 2017 Energy Security and Climate Change in South Asia: A Threat Analysis for Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Funded by: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Regional Project Energy Security and Climate Change Asia-Pacific Foreword Today, one-fourth of world´s total global population lives in South Asia, making it the most densely populated region on our planet. The region ranges from the Hima- layan Mountains to the Gangetic plain and the coastal areas. Changing landscapes, industrialisation, urbanisation, migration and unplanned growth are major drivers of development. Megacities like Karachi, Mumbai, Dhaka, Kolkata, and Delhi are among the biggest and fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the world – and they are most vulnerable to the impact of climate change. More than 1.4 billion people in South Asia depend on the freshwaters from the moun- tainous region of Nepal, Bhutan and India – with one-fourth of the population still living below the poverty line. Deforestation, excessive urban growth, air, soil and water pollu- tion, and overall environment degradation have dramatic consequences downstream. The consequences of global climate change are obvious: Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up faster, plant and animal ranges have shifted. Water shortages in urban areas and energy shortages impose huge obstacles for further social and economic development in South Asia. In 2015, the Regional Project Energy Security and Climate Change Asia-Pacific (RECAP) of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) initiated a study project to conduct a threat analysis for Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka under the aspects of energy security and the impact of climate change. Leading experts from the Consortium of South Asian Think Tanks (COSATT) shared our endeavour and contributed profound and comprehensive insights from the perspective of their respective country. This publication hopefully provides a stimulating guide to the specific challenges climate change and energy security impose on the nations in South Asia. The results clearly show, that greater attention to these threats is needed from the governments, private sector and multi-national agencies. This can only be achieved by increased cooperation among SAARC member states. We sincerely hope that this publication will provide useful information and recommendations to policy makers, experts, practitioners and researchers in the region and beyond. We also aim at initiating similar studies on the remaining SAARC countries Afghanistan, Bhutan, India and The Maldives in the near future. Dr Nishchal Pandey Dr Peter Hefele Director CSAS Director, KAS RECAP Kathmandu/Nepal Hongkong SAR/China 1 Bangladesh .........................5 Nepal ................................53 Pakistan ............................ 97 Sri Lanka ........................ 145 3 March 2017 Energy Security and Climate Change in South Asia: A Threat Analysis for Bangladesh Major General A N M Muniruzzaman, ndc, psc (Retd) Research & Study Funded by: conducted by: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Bangladesh Institute Regional Project of Peace and Energy Security Security Studies and Climate Change (BIPSS) Asia-Pacific Coverfoto: M. Saiful Islam | Shutterstock Bangladesh Table of Contents Abstract .......................................... 8 Introduction ...................................... 9 Methodology ..................................... 10 Background ...................................... 11 Threat Mapping .................................. 14 Wider Implications ............................... 26 Adaptation Strategy .............................. 33 Recommendations ............................... 42 Conclusion .......................................44 Bibliography ..................................... 45 7 Bangladesh Abstract Bangladesh is facing an existential threat due to climate change. The report tries to critically analyse the threats and challenges of climate change in Bangladesh as well as the adaptation strategies planned by the government. The report argues that climate change will have wide-ranging impacts on the country and as such the adaptation strategies should have to be robust as well as compatible to the changing global scenarios. Furthermore, the report suggests that the impacts will not be limited to the national boundaries of Bangladesh and hence, will require global and regional cooperation. 8 Bangladesh Introduction Climate change is, at present, arguably the biggest challenge the world faces. Academic debates in the field of non-traditional security have now become domi- nated by this issue. Climate change first became a global problem in the early 1970s, through the 1972 Stockholm Conference, the first major inter-governmental conference on environment preservation. The extent and significance of climate change, as a global concern, have been growing ever since. Every country in the world has more or less realised (if not internalised) the threat of climate change and is trying to move towards effective mitigation policies. In the first section, the report discusses the threat mapping of climate change. The report starts with shedding light on the effects of climate change on the world in general. Then it moves on to the threats faced by Bangladesh. A detailed analysis shows the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh ranging from water to food, health, energy, livelihood and other issues. The next section talks about the wider implications of climate change in Bangla- desh. Such implications may not be the direct resultants of climate change but have been heavily influenced by its effects. The section mainly discusses issues like social cohesion, internal and regional instability and possibilities of interstate conflicts. The third section is about the adaptation strategies undertaken by the government of Bangladesh. The report analyses the strategies made by the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009. Lastly, based on the observations, the report tries to make a set of recommendations for the accomplishment of climate change goals for Bangladesh. 9 Bangladesh Methodology This study was conducted following a qualitative research approach. Primarily, a secondary literature review was undertaken to generate data and a basis for the report. Although a significant amount of data exists on climate change in general, data with relevance to Bangladesh remains limited. The data initially generated was cross-checked with the study objectives as part of a selection of data that is more relevant than the rest. This selected data was then analysed to form the basis of this report. The draft report prepared on the basis of the selected literature was then internally reviewed by the in-house research scholars of BIPSS. This final report was then prepared to incorporate the comments of the in-house review. As mentioned earlier, there is quite a significant amount of literature on climate change. However, the material on climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. This report relies on the Government of Bangladesh’s Adaptation Strategy but relates it to the available literature from other sources to ensure a significant relevance to the adaptation strategy. The scope and resources of the study were limited to the existing literature. However, it may be noted that a more credible study is only possible when quan- titative and spatial primary data is cross-checked against the available literature. This paucity was felt even more acutely due to the shortage of spatial data on the on-going implementation of the adaptation strategy. 10 Bangladesh Background Global Effects Of Climate Change There is a rudimentary consensus among the experts about possible effects of climate change. These effects are spread among some key areas; the foremost of them is arguably the rise of sea level. Due to the increase in global tempera- ture, the ice sheets in the Arctic and the Antarctica are melting fast. Besides, the mountain glaciers are also melting at an alarming rate. This condition will cause a significant rise in the sea level. According to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 2007, by 2100 the estimated sea level rise would measure around 0.18 meters to 0.59 meters.1 However, the report did not include the ice calving, which, if taken into account, will push the estimation to about 0.8 to 2 meters for the same period.2 Other experts have estimated it to be about 0.5 to 1.4 meters.3 Based on these estimations, it could be safely concluded that we may witness a sea level rise of at least 1 meter by the end of the 21st century. The rise of sea level will result in additional effects. Some low-lying countries and small islands are at risk of complete or partial submersion into the sea. A large part of the coastal areas around the world may get inundated. This loss of huge landmass will cause unprecedented human displacements across the globe. The sea level rise will also cause saline intrusion into the rivers and ground waters, significantly affecting the agricultural sector and food security of the people. There will be a severe shortage of fresh water which is essential for different purposes. Climate Change will also cause extreme weather conditions like cyclones, floods, heat waves, droughts, river erosions and irregular water cycles. The world has already started witnessing such conditions in the form of several major natural disasters in recent years. 1 Solomon, Susan Snell; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). “Climate

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