POLICY PAPER

European issues n°283 Croatia’s accession to the th 25 June 2013 European Union: thoughts on Europe at a crossroad

Thibault Boutherin Abstract : On July 1st next Croatia will become the 28th Member of the European Union. This event may go relatively unnoticed, eclipsed by burning European issues as disparate as budgetary crises, State debt and also the Union’s institutional and political crises. However, this new enlargement, the 6th since 1950[1], brings with it several interesting elements and it also bears some beneficial mes- sages for the political leaders of both the Union and its States. These are particularly pertinent at a time when there is great doubt about European integration. Indeed Croatia’s accession confirms the Union’s founding principles and quite rightly reasserts the pertinence of this, but it also reveals the dangers weighing over the process and brings them into the sharp perspective of the Western Balkans’ recent past.

What a strange time this is for the European Union. which might be useful to boost the decision-makers’ Just as it seems to be questioning its very existence confidence, citizens’ faith and jump-start the engine of and is sinking into a multifaceted crisis, which is a European integration. mix of economic, budgetary, social and political pro- blems[2], it is, at the same time, about to welcome its 28th Member State to the fold. On July 1st next 1. CROATIA’S ACCESSION REBOOTS THE Croatia will be “celebrating” its entry into the Euro- VALIDITY OF THE INITIAL EUROPEAN pean Union. This enlargement is the first since that PROJECT of 2004-2007, which saw the entry of some 12 new States and 100 million citizens. This will probably be The progression of European integration, the peace the last for a long time to come since Iceland is under- and prosperity that it has given, must not distance us taking a u-turn in the wake of the general elections from the fundamental principles on which the process on April 27th 2013, whilst the other Western Balkan is based. Remembering this is a guarantee of the suc- States, although firmly established as “candidates” or cess of European integration. In this regard Croatia’s “potential candidates” since the European Councils of accession offers a particularly pertinent framework. Feira (2000) and Thessaloniki (2003), are still far from accession[3]. The picture overall is far from being a a. Regional integration provides pacification and happy one and there is little chance that on July 1st stabilisation 1. The European Commission counts the enlargments of 2004 next Brussels, or Zagreb will really be in a mood for The Founding Fathers had one central goal; peace in and 2007 as one. “celebration”. However the European Union has grown Europe. Thanks to the success of this enterprise the ci-

2. See Sébastien Richard, in adversity and in situations like this it has succee- tizens and leaders of the States have mainly lost sight “Terms of Crisis” European ded in taking decisive steps. This new phase in Euro- of the vital and immediate aspect of this ideal. This Issue n°278, Robert Schuman Foundation, 2013 pean integration is quite precisely the bearer of several aspect of the European project is still totally valid. The http://www.robert-schuman.eu/ en/european-issues/0278-terms- beneficial messages. This will remind us of the vital pacification of the continent is vital and far from being of-crisis spirit and the major benefits of this unique process of completed. The conflicts, which tore former Yugosla-

3. Albania, Former Yugoslav regional integration. It also reminds us of the dangers via apart 20 years ago, remind us of this quite cruelly. Republic of Macedonia, that weigh over Europe because of its hesitation and They stress the urgency of European integration all the Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia reticence. This paper presents some of the factors, more.

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Since then initiatives for pacification and stabilisation The European Union succeeds because it has created a in the Western Balkans have been greatly achieved to community of shared destiny between States, obliga- the credit of the European Union. This was absolutely tory regional solidarity – in the ilk of Croatia and Serbia 02 necessary for the political stability and the economic who are now playing a role in appeasement. Initiatives development of the area but there was nothing obvious towards presenting official apologies have been taken about it. Between peace in 1995 and the end of the on both banks of the Sava. Hence on April 29th 2013, reigns of Tudjman in Croatia[4] and Miloševic in the Fe- Vesna Pusic, Vice President of the Croatian government deral Republic of Yugoslavia[5], very little progress had and Foreign Minister, and Aleksandar Vucic, Vice Pres- been made towards a rapprochement between the two ident of the Serbian government and Defence Minister and those we did see were achieved reluctantly, mainly discussed a joint agenda which includes the settlement under international pressure. It was because the Eu- of on-going issues linked to the conflict, economic coo- ropean Union played a decisive role that détente and peration after Croatia’s accession and Serbia’s future rapprochement were possible. It succeeded in seizing membership. The European Union has developed a the opportunity of a political horizon, which seemed strategic political vision of the Balkans. Croatia’s acces- to be clearing with political alternation in Zagreb and sion reminds us that its initiative, the key to regional Belgrade. It was at that moment that The Union took stabilisation, is working and that it is vital and that, in an important initiative with the Zagreb Summit on 24th essence, the European project is still totally valid. November 2000 and launched the Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP). b. European integration strengthens democracy Launched 63 years ago in opposition to the dictator- The Zagreb Summit laid the foundations for regio- ships in the Eastern Bloc, European integration is in nal rapprochement. The Stabilisation and Association essence democratic. This is a virtue that we should Agreements (SAA) defined there comprise the back- remember. Any State that wants to join the European bone of this process. Each of the Western Balkan States Union has to meet the Copenhagen Criteria, including is able to sign one, as long as the European Commis- that which demands “stable institutions which gua- sion deems in its feasibility report that it is “sufficient- rantee the rule of law, democracy, human rights, the ly stable”[6]. But one of the core conditions for any respect of minorities and their protection.” This requi- rapprochement with the European Union is regional rement is re-iterated in the Stabilisation Process (SPA) cooperation. There can be no European perspective wi- and is one of the community acquis. Some of these thout input by all parties in this direction. This features chapters demanded “considerable” effort on the part at the heart of the financial tools in the process: the of Zagreb, including “fundamental and legal rights” CARDS programme (2000-2006) and the Instrument and “justice, freedom and security”. Croatia seems to for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA, 2007-2013). In view have risen to the challenge. But the Union’s positive of this; the European Union has invested money (4.65 influence also played a role in this. billion euro between 2000 and 2006 and €5.2 billion 4. Died on 10th December 1999 in 2007-2013), it has given encouragement and it has The political alternation that the country experienced

5. Beaten in the elections of succeeded because it sets conditions. Moreover the ac- in 2000 was a fortunate surprise. After the death of September 2000 and October ceptance of “regional stabilisation” has to be total and Franjo Tudjman, the father of independence of an auto- 2000 any reticence is sanctioned. The opening of member- cratic tendency, who had been in office since 1992, the 6. Croatia was the second state ship negotiations with Croatia was delayed on March strength of Croatian democracy was difficult to assess. after the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to sign 16th 2005 because the ICTY deemed that Zagreb was The general and presidential elections of 2000[7] were an SAA on 29th October 2001, entering into force on 1st not fully cooperating with the arrest of General Ante a humiliation for Tudjman’s party, the HDZ (Croa- February 2005. Gotovina, accused of crimes against humanity and of tian Democratic Union), and brought two reformists

7. The general elections took war crimes. It was only after his arrest in December to power: Ivica Racan (Social Democratic Party) as place on 3rd January 2000, the 2005 that the Union consented to launching negotia- leader of the government and Stjepan Mesic (Croatian Presidential election on 24th January and 7th February 2000. tions. People’s Party) to the Presidency of the Republic. Since

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then political developments have proven that demo- Moreover, under the guidance of the European Union, cracy was sound. The country has experienced seve- Serbia and Kosovo signed an historic agreement on ral alternations in power and even some smoothly run April 19th 2013 to normalise their relations. cohabitations[8]. Although the change in 2000 and the 03 effects of this afterwards ended in a domestic oppo- Thanks to its policy of conditionality and also because sition that had matured under Tudjman’s nationalist of the hope it raises, the European Union has there- reign, the European Union had growing influence over fore had significant influence over the political life of public debate and the policies introduced by successive its candidates. The Western Balkans have illustrated governments. the dangers of political instability and the sharpness of this risk. Again, in this, the initial project of European Alternation and then the constitutional review, which integration remains both valid and desirable. consequently resulted, cannot be dissociated from Croatia’s European integration goal. As of 2000 the c. European integration supports economic new government and the new President’s discourse development focused on accession to the EU and very quickly it The economic and social crisis, which many Member became a national political stake, which found consen- States are experiencing right now, should not mask the sus amongst the country’s main political parties. All economic results European integration has achieved revised their approach in order to integrate this goal. over the last 63 years. To date, in addition to the pros- Under Ivo Sanader the HDZ revised its ideology, which perity of its Member States, European integration has brought it to power once more from 2003 to 2011. provided economic development to under developed A second constitutional review since alternation, un- States that have been able to make up for lost time in dertaken in 2010, aimed to bring Croatia in line with a record period. Croatia has already started to benefit community law (notably concerning minority rights) from this and the process will progress after accession. and was adopted by a wide trans-partisan majority[9]. The country already enjoys a relatively advanced level All of the parties in Parliament, the Sabor, supported of development: its GDP per capita increased twofold the “yes” vote during the referendum on membership between 1998 and 2008 and it is estimated at 63.3% organised on January 22nd 2012 thereby offering it a of the EU’s average, similar to that of Poland. It is twice victory of 67.11%. that of Romania and Bulgaria. But the Croatian eco- nomy has been struck head on by the crisis (recession This development did not occur without some reti- of 6% in 2009 and 1.8% in 2012) and is facing conti- cence however. The most striking example was the nuing problems including mass unemployment (20.4% issue of the Generals Gotovina and Markac, deemed in 2012), a significant trade deficit, and an inequality in to be heroes in Croatia and which placed a share of the development of the different regions. the population against the European Union. Work still has to be done to counter corruption and establish the Joining the Union therefore brings hope for several rea- independence of the legal system but overall Croa- sons. Firstly it will enable the modernisation of its eco- tian political leaders have accepted the rules and the nomy. The transposition of the community acquis has demands made of them. In this the European Union started this trend. Several areas have required signifi- has largely helped to stabilise Croatia. We hope that cant effort: the free circulation of goods, workers and the same trend will occur in the rest of the Western services, industrial and entrepreneurial policy, social 8. Firstly with Stjepan Mesic Balkans, starting off in Serbia where the election of the and employment policy etc ... This will provide better as President (HNS-LD) and Ivo Sanader then Jadranka nationalist candidate Tomislav Nikolic rekindled fears conditions for business and investments. The institu- Kosor (HDZ) as leader of the of a new rise in tension. The latter made the goal of tional chapters will also help: public procurement, the government, then Ivo Josipovic (SDP) as leader and Jadranka joining the European Union his own, and adopted dis- fight to counter corruption, the strengthening of the Kosor course in this direction, going as far as to present his legal and civil services. But one of the areas which set 9. 131 votes in support, 4 apologies for the Srebrenica massacre on his “knees”. the greatest challenge has been competition. Between against

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2011 and 2013, the State achieved the reimburse- The pleasing score achieved by the “yes” vote should ment of subsidies paid to the steel industry (the Sisak not however mask the fact that turnout only totalled steelworks) and it undertook the difficult privatisation 44%. It was a sad record that Croatia beat that day of five shipyards, including that of Split. with the highest abstention rate in a referendum in the 04 history of European integration. This lack of enthusiasm Another advantage of the process is the develop- is of course part of a national context of poor turnout in ment of infrastructures. Croatia was lagging behind the most recent elections: 54.32% and 50.13% in the somewhat but has already benefited from funding for presidential elections of 2005 and 2010, 51% in the important infrastructure work like the Zagreb-Split-Du- general election in 2011 illustrating the Croats disil- brovnik motorway for example. One of the IPA’s goals lusionment as far as politics is concerned. But regar- is precisely to prepare for economic development and ding Europe its implications are disturbing: there was a the management of structural funds to which the new 79.3% abstention rate during the first European elec- Member State will have the right. Although between tions on 14th April 2013[11]! This phenomenon has 2007 and 2013 Croatia received 1.07 billion euro in been seen more widely in all Member States, notably community loans, the total funds it will receive during in the countries of central and Eastern Europe. But the second semester of 2013 will be multiplied by 8.5. there is a major difference here: the Croatians are not The structural funds that it will receive in 2013 will even members of the Union yet. Popular demotivation be multiplied by two in 2014 and by three in 2015. is affecting a new segment of the population: that of Finally its integration will foster even more trade on the candidate countries. Popular support to the Euro- the part of Croatia with its leading partners (Italy, Ger- pean project is taking a singular direction and the case many, Austria etc). Regional rapprochement imposed of Croatia illustrates the seriousness of it. The Euro- on the Western Balkans has led to renewed trade with pean Union should take note of the urgency of this new its neighbours. From a regulatory and infrastructural warning and its leaders should ask themselves some point of view Croatia will be able to take full advantage questions as a consequence. European integration will of the economic benefits of its membership. In view of not be able to move forward without the support of the the overall mood and the counter-truths that are regu- people. If the citizens turn their backs on Europe the larly launched against European integration we have to continent might fall prey to the demons of the past. stress what the facts really are. b. The high risks behind the people’s rejection 2. CROATIA’S MEMBERSHIP REMINDS US The problem is that a democratic, stable and pacified OF THE RISKS THAT WEIGH OVER THE Europe cannot afford to hesitate or make mistakes in EUROPEAN UNION this project. The Western Balkans reminds us of the For several reasons Croatia’s accession is a success dangers of this. The area is conducive to this: labo- for the European Union. It is also good news for the rious economic development, political instability, ins- Western Balkans; which is still bogged down in ende- titutional, administrative and legal weakness together mic problems. But this new enlargement also has to be with high crime rates. All of this is coupled to a lively placed in perspective: it reminds us of the dangers that national feeling and sensitivity about subjects like in- exist if we do not integrate the Balkans, if we do not dependence and State sovereignty. The countries of “make” Europe or relinquish the voluntarism required the Western Balkans have all been involved in bloody of a process like this. conflict over the last twenty years. The European Union is the only foreseeable salvation both mid and long- a. The demotivation of European citizens term, as part of a stable, economically viable future. The referendum on Croatia’s membership gave a landslide victory to the “yes” vote with 67.11%. This From this point of view Croatia has an exemplary role to was a relief because Croatian public opinion fluctua- play, which makes its accession strategic. However the ted greatly during the entire process. After massive potential stumbling blocks are multifarious. The sacri- support to its accession the percentage curves pro- fices demanded of Croatia may seem out of proportion gressively declined to the point of reaching an oppo- if the hopes raised by accession are not fully satisfied. sition majority in June 2005. This episode followed On integration agriculture will face the Common Agri-

10. See page 3 the European Council’s decision to delay the date of cultural Policy. The privatisation of five shipyards (in- negotiation launch (due to a lack of cooperation with cluding Brodosplit, with the destruction of 1,600 jobs 11. These MEPs have only been the ICTY[10]). Since then the share of citizens who out of a total 3,300) was perceived badly in a context elected for one year before the next European elections in May support membership has risen but the project did not of high unemployment (20.4%). The ICTY’s acquittal of 2014. succeed in generating any further enthusiasm. the Generals Gotovina and Markac in November 2012

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probably defused an additional motivation for national that all eyes will be on the Union. The verdict will frustration, but the complaints presented by Croatia condition the continuation of integration of the other and Serbia against one another at the ICTY might, if States in the region, whilst the challenges of Bosnia- they are not withdrawn, spark off hostilities once more. Herzegovina, Albania and a fortiori Kosovo, amongst If the Croatian example fails it might take all of the others are otherwise much greater. Štefan Füle, the 05 Balkans with it. European Commissioner for Enlargement said in March 2010 that “the lessons of previous enlargements had The nationalist threat is not just limited to the Wes- to be learnt” and believed that Europe would be parti- tern Balkans but it has greater profile there. In Europe cularly careful regarding the respect of the criteria. The at present centrifugal forces are being expressed with entry of Croatia is therefore a real test. increasing voice because of the economic and social crisis. The examples of nationalist discourse are d. The question of the project, more urgent than growing: parties like Golden Dawn in Greece, Ataka in ever before Bulgaria, National Front in France, Northern League in The European Union is experiencing a confidence crisis Italy etc. All are not comparable of course. But their and is facing the mistrust from a growing share of its radically anti-European discourse is a real threat to citizens. Economic and social difficulties encountered stability. If their tune found a common echo because of by its Member States have shaken the faith that ci- the failure of the European project, the consequences tizens had in the Union’s ability to protect them and could be disastrous. defend their interests. The question was raised in 2004-2007 in the wake of the previous enlargement c. The European Union’s enlargement strategy to the countries in the east, which were economically and its regional influence brought into question underdeveloped and after the debate over social dum- Croatia’s membership is a new stage “towards a totally ping (“the Polish plumber”). The Union absolutely unified and democratic Europe” to echo the words of must rise to the challenge of credibility and legitimacy. Catherine Ashton. However the success of the process Each policy it launches conditions this capital. This is is not guaranteed, the stake is a capital one and its the main angle of attack used by the eurosceptic par- effects extend beyond Croatia and the region. This en- ties, together with issues of principle of sovereignty largement will also affect the Union politically. and democracy that are supposed to have been confis- cated by the European institutions. The price of failure The European Union cannot afford to fail in the Bal- would be too high. It would break down the Union’s kans. The political, economic and diplomatic risks are political capital just a little more. far too high. The Croatian case is therefore seen as an example. But European hesitation about its enlarge- In response to concerns over enlargement the Union ment strategy, notably as far as they are concerned introduced a new criteria in 2006 linked to its “capa- and the excessive effort required against anticipated city to integrate”. The question is being raised again results, might end in the demotivation of the candi- over Croatia. It is the first since the enlargement of date countries. The economic and institutional difficul- 2004-2007[14] which took the Union from 15 to 27 ties it is encountering have already dissuaded some Member States and increased the population by 25% candidates[12]. The “potential candidates” had to be (100 million inhabitants). This caused a shockwave reassured at the EU-Balkan Summit in June 2010 in across the EU the effects of which are still felt today, Sarajevo. Former Serbian President Boris Tadic recal- since, amongst other things it was just as much a pro- led on this occasion that “the countries of the Western blem of absorption as governance. This was why the Balkans should not suffer the consequences[13].” This European Commission introduced this concept. For the would not be in Europe’s interest in any case. It cannot first time since 1981 enlargement will only involve one 12. http://www.presseurop.eu/ afford to have weak, unstable States over which it has State. The Union’s capacity for integration will not be fr/content/news-brief/3740301- lost its influence on its doorstep after having given tested as much by Croatia’s accession, since it “only” avec-la-crise-les-candidats-l-ue- reflechissent-deux-fois them hope of joining one day. This might be to the has a population of 4.4 million. But the question over benefit of Russia, China or Turkey. the direction taken by the European project remains in 13. http://www. the background. euractiv.fr/international/ article20100602en-proie-aux- However the European Union should not rush in either. doutes-ue-tente-rassurer- It will have to be extremely rigorous in this rapproche- Often the enlargement strategy has been backed by balkans_68412-5014.html ment. Accusations of haste were virulent during the that of “deepening”. In June 2007 Olli Rehn, then Eu- 14. http://www.europarl. accession of Romania and Bulgaria. But the enlarge- ropean Commissioner for Enlargement explained that europa.eu/highlights/fr/303. ment to Croatia will be the first since 2007. This means “in fifty years of European integration the Union had html

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achieved remarkable results thanks to a mix of political as a Member State to put pressure on neighbouring deepening and gradual enlargement […] It has been candidates in the settlement of disputes, as Slove- thanks to a mix of internal deepening and its succes- nia did over the border conflict in the Gulf of Piran or sive enlargements that Europe has been able to adapt over the Ljubljanska Banka[15]? Or will it maintain its 06 to past changes successfully.” The absolute pertinence driving role as it has seemed to do over the last few of these two statements is questionable. The real ques- months providing technical advice and encouragement tion is still that of the project, which is revived with to the Balkan States including Serbia? every enlargement: what is the point of enlarging if we Of course there is no question of a having an idyllic do not have a direction? view of European integration, which has revealed its This new enlargement is occurring without having sett- own weaknesses. But Croatia’s accession provides led either the question of the project or that of popular hope again and an idea of our responsibilities. Euro- support. Of course enlargement is inevitable for geopo- pean integration is a success. In this regard Croatia’s litical, economic and social reasons which we have tried accession is striking: in 20 years the country has emer- to explain. But without a frank response to the urgent ged from two bloody conflicts, has rebuilt its economy issue of the project it looks as though the question has and has strengthened democracy, to the extent that it been given no further thought. It increases the dangers is now integrating the European Union. The latter now that are weighing over European integration. Low moti- finds itself at a crossroads but its decision makers and vation levels and the nationalist threat prove that the citizens are hesitating, holding back and have lost sight European project is no longer a shared ideal or that it of this priceless opportunity for the future. The debate bears a sufficient amount of hope. It is suffering from over the direction to give to the Union is a legitimate a lack of clarity and above all direction: does anyone and healthy one. However it should not lead us to forget know where Europe wants or needs to go? If its lea- the immensely beneficial, vital and necessary aspects ders; the craftsman of European integration no longer of this process. Let us hope that this enlargement and have a plan how can we ask citizens for their support? the lessons that it brings with it, will finally provide a new impetus and help us make the right choice.

CONCLUSION

The role that Croatia will want to play as a Member State will be monitored. Will it be a reticent State, held Thibault Boutherin

15. http://balkans.courriers.info/ back by an unenthusiastic public opinion? Will it be a Public and European Affairs and Public Communication article21768.html European integration “stowaway”? Will it use its status Consultant

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