Israel and Middle East News Update

Wednesday, February 17

Headlines: ● Poll: Public Less Critical of Govt Response to COVID ● Joint Arab List Head Received Money From PLO ● Committee Advances Major US- Aircraft Deal ● Ministers Convene Over Syria-Linked 'Humanitarian Issue' ● Iran and Russia Begin Joint Naval Drill ● Turkey Increases Investments in PA ● Israel Excluded From Who's Middle East Vaccination Report ● US Approves $197m Sale to Egypt, but Notes Human Rights

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Message to Nasrallah’’ - By Yossi Yehoshua

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Bennett Holds the Keys’’ - By Sima Kadmon

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President Editor: Yousef Bashir News Excerpts February 17, 2021 Times of Israel Poll: Public Less Critical of Govt Response to COVID The public view of the government’s handling of the pandemic is improving slightly, according to a Channel 12 poll. The poll also showed Prime Minister ’s Likud party making small gains at the expense of its rival Yamina ahead of the March election. Asked what they thought of the handling of the COVID-19 crisis, 50% of respondents had a negative view while 47% had a positive view. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, which repeatedly criticized the government on its response to the virus, appeared to be weakening, and is on the verge of dropping down to single digits. The survey showed Likud winning 29 seats; Yesh Atid, 18; New Hope, 13; Yamina, 10; the Joint List, 9; Shas, 8; United Torah Judaism, 7; Yisrael Betyenu, 7; Labor, 6; Religious Zionism, 5; Meretz, 4; and Blue & White, 4. Dig Deeper ‘‘Pandemic-Battered Israeli Economy Contracts 2.4% in 2020’’ (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post White House: Biden’s First Call in Region Will Be Netanyahu White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that a conversation between President Joe Biden and Netanyahu is imminent. “[President Biden’s] first call with a leader in the region will be with Prime Minister Netanyahu,” Psaki said, “It will be soon; I don’t have an exact day, but it is soon.” She added that “Israel is, of course, an ally; Israel is a country where we have an important strategic security relationship, and our team is fully engaged – not at the head of state level quite yet – but our teams are fully engaged, having constant conversations at many levels with the Israelis.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken also spoke twice with his Israel counterpart Gabi Ashkenazi. In their recent call last week, Ashkenazi thanked Blinken for the administration’s position against the ICC decision to investigate Israel. Dig Deeper ‘‘Political Sources: Biden Avoids Giving Netanyahu Election Boost with Call’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Jerusalem Post Committee Advances Major US-Israel Aircraft Deal As tensions in the region peak and an Israeli attack on Iran remains a possibility, the ministerial procurement committee approved a deal worth billions of dollars between the Defense Ministry and the US for new fighter jets and tankers. The approval included the procurement of four Boeing KC-46a aerial refueling tankers that are intended to replace Israel’s aging Re’em fleet, converted Boeing 707s. Sources said that a deal regarding the tankers is expected to be signed by the end of the month. Last March, the State Department approved a possible sale of up to eight KC-46 aircraft and related equipment to Israel for an estimated cost of $2.4 billion, marking the first time that Washington has allowed Jerusalem to buy new tankers. The committee also approved exercising the option to procure another squadron of the advanced F- 35 fighter jet and the purchase of new ammunition. 2 I24 News Ministers Convene Over Syria-Linked 'Humanitarian Issue' Israeli ministers convened for an urgent meeting focused on a "humanitarian issue" linked with Syria. The details of the discussion are largely kept in secrecy but according Walla!, Russia, a key ally of Damascus, is involved in the matter. Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Gantz and Foreign Minister Ashkenazi all recently spoke with their respective Russian counterparts on the issue. Russia, which holds much sway in Syria after backing its President Bashar Assad, has frequently worked as a mediator in secretive contacts between Jerusalem and Damascus. In 2019, Moscow helped Israel secure the remains of Sgt. Zachary Baumel, an American-Israeli soldier who went missing during the First Lebanon War in 1982. Shortly after that, Israel released two prisoners with ties to Syria, with another two freed in January 2020, referring to the move as a "goodwill gesture." Dig Deeper ‘‘Popular Syrian Actor Says Normalization with Israel ‘Is Coming’’ (Times of Israel)

Associated Press Iran and Russia Begin Joint Naval Drill The Iranian and Russian militaries have kicked off a joint naval drill in the Indian Ocean aimed at boosting security of maritime trade in the region, Iran’s state TV reported. The TV said units from Iran’s Navy and the powerful Revolutionary Guard’s naval forces will take part in the exercise dubbed “Iran-Russia Maritime Security Belt 2021” in the northern part of Indian Ocean, spanning a stretch of about 10,600 miles. According to Iranian Adm. Gholamreza Tahani, the drill spokesman, a Russian destroyer, logistics ship and a helicopter were to participate in the drill. This is the second such joint Russia-Iran exercise since 2019, when the two nations plus China held a four-day exercise. Tehran has been seeking to step up military cooperation with Beijing and Moscow amid regional tensions with the US. Visits to Iran by Russian and Chinese naval representatives have also increased in recent years. Dig Deeper ‘‘Iran Tells IAEA It Plans to Scale Back Cooperation in a Week’’ (Reuters)

Israel Hayom Turkey Increases Investments in PA The Palestinian Authority said that Israel was preventing it from sending coronavirus vaccines to the Gaza Strip that are intended for frontline medical workers in the territory controlled by the Islamic militant group Hamas. Palestinian Health Minister Mai Alkaila said in a statement that Israel bore “full responsibility” for blocking the shipment of 2,000 doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine that were acquired by the PA, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The PA has said it will share its vaccine supply with Gaza, where the Islamic militant group Hamas seized power from its forces in 2007. The territory, which is home to more than 2 million Palestinians, has yet to receive any vaccines. Authorities there have reported more than 53,000 cases and at least 537 deaths since the start of the pandemic. Israel and Egypt have imposed a blockade on Gaza since the Hamas takeover. Israeli lawmakers have said Israel should only allow in vaccines in return for progress on the release of two captive Israelis and the remains of two Israeli soldiers being held by Hamas.

3 Jerusalem Post Israel Excluded From Who's Middle East Vaccination Report The World Health Organization declared that only 1% of the Middle East population has received the first shot of the coronavirus vaccine, but the report did not include Israel, currently considered to be the vaccination world's leader. The UN’s body that released the data, WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMRO), comprises 21 member states and about 600m people. The region is defined as covering from Morocco to Pakistan. However, according to the body, Israel is not part of the Middle East region, while the West Bank and Gaza are. Israel is so far the leading the world in terms of vaccinations per capita, with four millionth citizen who have received a first dose, of whom 2.6m have received a second shot. Israel allowed 1,000 of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccines to be transferred to the Gaza Strip through the Erez border crossing, following approval from the Defense Ministry. Israel controls two of the three main crossings into Gaza, the commercial one at Kerem Shalom and the pedestrian one at Erez. All vaccines slated for Gaza, would need approval from Israel to enter through either of those crossings. The vaccines transferred to Gaza on Wednesday came from a donation of 10,000 Sputnik vaccine doses from Russia. The vaccines for the Palestinians are not the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines which Israel purchased for its citizens. They are fragile and require special refrigeration. Conditions in Gaza, where the electricity supply is limited and unstable, means that those vaccines are unsuitable for use there.

Times of Israel US Approves $197m Sale to Egypt, but Notes Human Rights President Biden’s administration approved a nearly $200m arms sale to Egypt but vowed to press human rights issues after a US activist reported harassment of his family. The Biden administration — which has vowed to end support for Saudi Arabia’s offensive operations in Yemen’s devastating war and is reviewing a major jet sale to the UAE — said it approved the sale of 168 tactical missiles to Egypt. The $197m sale of the Raytheon-made Rolling Airframe Missiles was requested by the Egyptian navy to improve defense in coastal areas and around the Red Sea, the State Department said. The State Department said in a statement that it approved the sale, subject to congressional review, as Egypt “continues to be an important strategic partner in the Middle East.” Biden has vowed a tougher stance on human rights after his predecessor Trump courted Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, whom he reportedly called “my favorite dictator” in part for his cooperation with Israel. A lawyer for Mohamed Soltan, a US citizen who has filed a lawsuit alleging torture in Egyptian custody, said that plainclothes officers raided the homes of six family members, detaining two cousins. State Department spokesman Ned Price said the US was aware and “looking into” the account.

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – February 17, 2021 Message to Nasrallah By Yossi Yehoshua ● 3,000 Hezbollah targets and 300 dead in one day—that’s the IAF’s goal in the next war with Hezbollah. That is also the scenario the IAF drilled for during the surprise Vered Hagalil Exercise that began Sunday and was wrapped up last night. The drill was originally scheduled to have been held next week, but Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. moved it up a week without advance notice. The exercise opened with the following scenario: A missile is launched at an IAF aircraft during a routine patrol over Lebanon. The plane is not downed, but it is hit. Asa result of the ensuing days of combat Israel decides to go for an all-out campaign against Hizbullah. This is not a particularly surprising scenario: Intelligence officials have warned about the possibility that Hizbullah would like to change the balance of power vs. the IDF by hitting Israeli aircraft, as the group tried to do just two weeks ago by firing at (and missing) an unmanned drone. The working assumption is that Hizbullah is prepared for a round of fighting with Israel that will last several days but which, from the organization’s perspective, should be limited. Nevertheless, in contrast to “limited” rounds of fighting in Gaza, a clash with Hizbullah could well snowball into all-out war. ● That is the reason the IAF demonstrated its exceptional offensive capabilities: To make Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah think twice about going to war. Hundreds of combat aircraft, cargo planes and drones participated in the exercise, as did reservists who were called up. The military also drilled warfare protocols during the coronavirus pandemic. “The drill improved the air force’s readiness for war on the northern front,” Norkin said. Since the Second Lebanon War Israel has watched Hizbullah build up its strength by amassing 150,000 rockets and bombs that have the ability to cause extensive damage in Israel. When the 2006 conflict broke out, the IAF had identified just 286 targets—all of which were attacked in the first four days, at a rate of just 150 sorties a day. Ultimately, 4,500 targets were hit during the month-long war. But a month ago IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. sent a reminder that Lebanese civilians, who sit on the Hizbullah tinder box, will also pay a price—as will Lebanon itself, as the country hosting Nasrallah and his cohorts. This week’s exercise was intended to show Nasrallah that Israel has improved its intelligence and operational capabilities significantly, to send a message that the next war will not resemble the previous one and that the scope of destruction in Lebanon will be very great, indeed. ● It is unclear whether Nasrallah understood the message. Last night he responded to the IDF drill. “We are not interested in a clash or in war. But if war is forced on us, we will fight. After all of Israel’s recent threats no one can say it wouldn’t descend into all-out war. The Israeli home front will see things it hasn’t seen since Israel was founded,” Nasrallah said. The impressive capability demonstrated by the IAF wasn’t born yesterday. Rather, it was developed during the tenure of former IAF Commander Maj. Gen. , who identified 3,000 targets for attack.

5 ● The current commander, Maj. Gen. Norkin, further built up those [offensive] capabilities by adding a “doctrine of blows”: He built an “eight-strike plan” for Hizbullah which in addition to a massive [initial] strike would also include electronic and cognitive warfare. “The main war plan is to strike a quick, painful blow to the enemy’s ability to operate effectively, in order to force [the enemy] to accept a quick end to the fighting,” Norkin wrote. “This [will be accomplished] by a quick, surprising strike at key abilities that will strike a blow to [the enemy’s] ability to function and cause temporary paralysis, perhaps even raise significant questions about their ability to set into action their operational plans.” ● Norkin does not believe those objectives can be accomplished with just a single blow. Rather, he holds that a series of strikes will be needed that will include a combination of concentrated, carefully-targeted blows together with ongoing [strikes] and a steady ramping-up of pressure on the enemy. His plan: Every strike will be designed to cause extensive damage to the enemy in a short period of time, with a goal of minimizing damage to the Israeli home front and to the IDF and bring about a speedy end to the fighting with a clear advantage to Israel. This approach conforms to with Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi’s plan, which is comprised of three main efforts: broad strikes, broad defense and broad maneuvering. This plan rests on an air force that needs to upgrade its aircraft. Yesterday, Brig. Gen. Tomer Bar, head of the IDF , presented the cabinet with a plan to equip the IAF with a third F-35 squadron that is due to arrive towards the end of the decade, an option for new F-15s, new precision-guided ordnances and air defense systems. ● In order to implement the IDF’s offensive plan, preparations must not be halted because of a lack of weapons, and we must not reach a red line in the number of intercepting missile for the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow batteries. Most of the money is available from American aid money that has not been used because of problems of governance in Israel. The chief of staff has managed to get the prime minister to approve a long-term purchasing plan that reaches to 2034 that will allow the IDF to better plan for the next war.

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – February 17, 2021 Bennett Holds the Keys By Sima Kadmon ● Prime Minister Netanyahu began his media blitz earlier than usual. Some people may say he began it too early. But earlier than what? After all, Netanyahu is going to give a lot more interviews—two weeks before the election, one week before the election and even on Election Day itself. Netanyahu will come to those interviews fully prepared, including with a ready-to-go ‘na-na- na-na-na-na’ and, like a sprinkler, he will flood the studios with lies while he rolls his eyes, renders his face into a smile that looks more like a twitch, and repeatedly touches his nose—providing golden material for body- language experts. We don’t need any experts to know that it doesn’t matter how many times Netanyahu touched his nose [i.e. how many times he gave an unconscious sign that he was lying]— his admirers don’t care. As far as they are concerned, the way he “dispensed” with Yonit Levy [the interviewer] was far more important than her question about how many times he phoned the witness for the prosecution, Arnon Milchan, or even his answer of “once, twice,” and the fact that he claims only to have wished Milchan a happy holiday in those phone calls. ● If Netanyahu admitted without being pressured that he spoke with Milchan at least once or twice, the actual answer could be triple that. And when he says that he only wished Milchan a happy holiday—the two of them presumably also exchanged a few other words as well that had nothing to do with the holiday. That isn’t to say that it is a crime to phone a witness for the prosecution. That only becomes a criminal offense if the call in any way qualifies as a hint, a threat or a request to influence the witness’s testimony. In other words, if he said, “Happy holidays, Arnon,” there is nothing wrong with that. If he said anything else that either directly or indirectly was designed to get Milchan to change his testimony—that is a criminal offense. ● That is precisely why lawyers tend to warn their clients not to have any contact with witnesses, not to exchange glances and to cross over to the other side of the street if they happen to see them walking towards them. But in this case the defendant’s lawyer [Boaz Ben Zur] served formerly as the lawyer for the prosecution’s witness. Or, as one top State Attorney’s Office official put to me this week: it’s like a pot of cholent that was cooked overnight. It’s kosher, but smells. Just as in the case of the harassment of the state’s witness in Case 4,000, Shlomo Filber who was harassed with calls that were broadcast over loudspeakers that were fixed to a car that was parked outside his home. Or, just this week, when changes were made to the Wikipedia page of Walla’s former CEO, Ilan Yeshua, who is also a witness for the prosecution in that case, so that it matched the narrative that Netanyahu’s lawyers [presumably intend to put forward] in their cross-examination. What prompted Abu Yair to ask to be interviewed by “Al Jazeera,” as his closest confidants [primarily his son, Yair Netanyahu] like to call Keshet 12’s Hahadashot? The answer isn’t entirely clear. ● Maybe it was the optimistic reports about the impact that the vaccinations have had [on public opinion] and the decision to reopen the economy that induced him to give yet 7 another monologue about me, me and me. Maybe it was the recent polls that spurred him on to do more than he has until now. Or maybe he did so in order to let the public know what kind of coalition government he intends to form: a right-wing government without an alternating premiership arrangement. ● If the issue was the alternating premiership arrangement, that message was well- delivered. The question is whether anyone believes him. Netanyahu said that he would not agree to an alternating premiership arrangement? So he said. He also said that he wouldn’t agree to an alternating premiership arrangement with Gantz, and he ultimately did. He said that Ben Gvir would not be a member of his cabinet? So he said. He also said [in an interview ahead of previous elections] that he would not advance legislation that would grant him immunity from prosecution, and that was the very first thing that he did. One thing is clear: he said what he said in order to make Bennett look small and to get right-wing voters to cast their ballots for the Likud. Netanyahu crafted that message in response to a lot of speculation about the demands that are likely to be made by Bennett, the man who holds the keys to the next government, as he deliberates whether to join a coalition with Netanyahu or the anti-Netanyahu coalition. Netanyahu, notwithstanding his show of brash self-confidence, is very worried about that. ● He has deliberately focused his campaign on Lapid, whose party is currently polling as the second-largest party, in hope of winning back voters who have since shifted their support to Saar and Bennett. That is the reason why Lapid’s name was mentioned in the interview every time that was necessary, and even when doing so wasn’t necessary. Netanyahu’s narrative is that it is either him or Lapid. Either right or left. “Gideon” isn’t a factor, and he doesn’t need Bennett. He is trying to sell the public a narrative as if he will be able to form a 61-seat majority with just the Haredim and Smotrich, without Bennett. The truth is far from that. Currently, and it is hard to believe that is likely to change until the elections, Netanyahu doesn’t have a coalition without Bennett. ● If Bennett were to get up now and say: I won’t join a Netanyahu-led government, period, that would change the entire equation. That might get a lot of voters who currently are inclined to vote for the Likud to vote instead either for Bennett or for Saar, given their realization that Netanyahu has no chance of having a 61-seat majority in any event. The power plays by the smaller parties would then become less important, because they wouldn’t change anything. Bennett could make support for the Likud plummet if he were only to say that he would not join a Netanyahu government. As long as he continues to sit on the fence, he runs the risk of Netanyahu siphoning off his supporters and the number of Yamina seats in the next Knesset dropping into single-digits. ● The question is why haven’t the leaders of the parties that have explicitly said that they would not serve in a Netanyahu government—such as Lapid, Saar and Liberman— promised Bennett that if he pledges now not to join a Netanyahu government, he can be first in the alternating premiership arrangement in their coalition. He can be the next prime minister. I asked this week why a proposal along those lines hasn’t yet been put to Bennett. Anyone who wants more than anything else to see Netanyahu ousted from power ought to be willing to make far-reaching concessions to achieve that goal. The

8 answer that I was given was that doing so at this stage would be premature. Feelers were put out before the final lists had to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee. They also said that while Lapid may have more seats, Saar and Bennett have a far greater ability to form a coalition. Bennett’s plan is to continue to hold onto the keys to the next government. Presumably, he realizes that as long as he continues to hold that power he can demand from either one of the sides to be an alternating prime minister. If he has 16 or 17 seats, he’ll be able to demand to be first; if he has fewer seats, he’ll have to make do with being prime minister second. Bennett is convinced that only he can engineer a political move that will bring about Netanyahu’s ouster from power while maintaining Netanyahu’s dignity, governmental stability and the right wing’s continued hold on power.

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