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Important Information Emirates NBD Investor Presentation August 2017 2 Important Information Disclaimer The material in this presentation is general background information about the activities of Emirates NBD Bank PJSC (Emirates NBD), current at the date of this presentation, and believed by Emirates NBD to be accurate and true. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. Some of the information that is relied upon by Emirates NBD is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Emirates NBD (nor any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, affiliates or subsidiaries) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and disclaims all liability or responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any act taken as a result of the information. The information in this presentation is not intended to be relied upon as advice or a recommendation to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. An investor should seek independent professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate. Due to rounding, numbers and percentages presented throughout this presentation may not add up precisely to the totals provided. Forward Looking Statements Certain matters discussed in this presentation about the future performance of Emirates NBD or members of its group (the Group), including without limitation, future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects and all other statements that are not purely historical, constitute “forward-looking statements”. Such forward-looking statements are based on current expectations or beliefs, as well as assumptions about future events, made from information currently available. Forward-looking statements often use words such as “anticipate”, “target”, “expect”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “goal”, “seek”, “believe”, “will”, “may”, “should”, “would”, “could” or other words of similar meaning. Undue reliance should not be placed on any such statements in making an investment decision, as forward-looking statements, by their nature, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, as well as the Group’s plans and objectives, to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. There are several factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements, such as changes in the global, political, economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory forces; future exchange and interest rates; changes in tax rates; and future business combinations or dispositions. Emirates NBD undertakes no obligation to revise or update any statement, including any forward-looking statement, contained within this presentation, regardless of whether those statements are affected as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 3 UAE Economic Update Highlights Real GDP growth forecasts • Non-oil growth in the UAE appears to have accelerated in H1 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2017, based on PMI survey data. However, OPEC’s decision to Operating Operating Environment S. Arabia 2.7 3.7 4.1 1.7 0.5 extend output cuts through Q1 2018 has led us to revise down our UAE 4.7 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.0 projections for oil sector growth this year and next Qatar 4.0 3.5 3.3 2.0 2.5 Kuwait 1.1 0.5 1.8 2.1 -1.0 • As a result, we have downgraded our 2017 growth forecast to Oman 4.4 2.5 5.7 3.7 1.0 2.0% from 3.4% previously. We expect Dubai to grow at a faster Bahrain 5.4 4.4 2.9 3.0 2.2 rate than Abu Dhabi as it won’t be as affected by lower oil output GCC (average) 3.3 3.2 3.8 2.3 1.1 Egypt 2.1 2.9 4.4 4.3 3.5 • The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index for the UAE Jordan 2.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.8 increased to 56.0 in July from 55.8 in June, signalling a strong rate Lebanon 3.0 1.8 1.5 2.4 3.1 Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates of growth in the non-oil private sector last month Tunisia 2.9 2.3 0.8 1.1 2.8 Morocco 4.4 2.6 4.5 1.0 4.7 MENA (average) 2.8 2.7 3.8 3.1 3.7 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Oil Price and UAE oil production UAE PMI – Non oil private sector activity 3.2 125 62.0 3.0 100 60.0 2.8 75 58.0 2.6 M M bpd 50 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance 2.4 56.0 USD per USD per barrel 2.2 25 54.0 2.0 0 52.0 Strategy Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-13 50.0 UAE Oil Production (lhs) ICE Brent (rhs) Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Source: Markit / Emirates NBD Appendix 4 Dubai Economic Update (1/3) Highlights Composition of Dubai GDP • The Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index was broadly Dubai GPD by Sector (%) – Q4 2016 unchanged in July at 56.3, still signaling robust expansion in the Operating Operating Environment non-oil private sector Others Dubai’s economy expanded 3.9% y-o-y in Q4 2016. Hospitality 25% Trade • 30% (restaurants and hotels) was the fastest growing sector in Dubai at 14.2% followed by Real Estate at 8.9% Hosp 7% Constr. & RE Transportat & 13% Storage Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates 7% Manuf. Financial 8% services 11% Source: Dubai Statistics Centre Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index Dubai: Key sector growth rates in Q4 2016 64 14.0 62 12.0 60 10.0 8.0 58 14.2 6.0 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance 56 4.0 8.9 6.7 54 5.5 2.0 3.5 52 1.3 0.0 1.1 Strategy 50 48 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Source : Markit, Emirates NBD Research Source: Dubai Statistics Centre Appendix 5 Dubai Economic Update (2/3) Highlights Dubai Airports passenger traffic • Passenger traffic at the Dubai International Airport (DXB) rose to 40 1200 37 million in Jan-May 2017, up 6.7% y/y Operating Operating Environment 1000 35 • Passenger traffic is expected to exceed 89 million at DXB by the 800 end of 2017, according to Dubai Airports 30 600 37 25 35 • Dubai’s hotel occupancy rates remained high averaging 78.0% in 32 400 30 H1 2017 up from 76.3% in the same period a year ago 27 20 23 200 20 The supply of hotel rooms in Dubai increased by 5.7% y/y in June • 15 0 2017 to 94,705 rooms. The Department of Tourism and Jan-May Jan-May Jan-May Jan-May Jan-May Jan-May Jan-May Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates Commerce Marketing (DTCM) is targeting 140,000 to 160,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 hotel rooms by the end of the decade Passenger traffic (LHS) Freight volumes (RHS) Source: Dubai Airports, Emirates NBD Research Hotel occupancy and RevPAR Top 10 visitors by nationality in Jan-May 2017 100 25 % % of total 7.26mn visitors India y/y growth 20 90 13.0% 15 80 10 Other Saudi Arabia 70 5 45.2% 9.2% 0 60 -5 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance 50 -10 UK -15 7.9% 40 Oman -20 5.0% 30 -25 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Pakistan Strategy 3.8% Average hotel occupancy rates, % (LHS) US Germany Iran China 3.8% Average revenue per available room, y/y growth, 3M MA (RHS) 3.4% 3.5% 5.0% Source: STR Global, Emirates NBD Research Source: Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing, Emirates NBD Research Appendix 6 Dubai Economic Update (3/3) Highlights Dubai residential yield • Dubai residential property prices continued to decline in Q2 2017. Apts Yields (LHS) Villas Yields (RHS) Apartment price decline by -0.3% y/y in June compared with -7.1% Operating Operating Environment 8.4 5.4 y/y in January in 2017. Villa prices fell nearly -11.0% y/y in June 5.2 • The slower contraction in residential real estate prices over the 8.0 first six months of 2017 has been accompanied by higher 5.0 transaction volumes; with overall transaction volumes increased 7.6 4.8 by 46.7% y/y in H1 2017 compared with -27.0% decline recorded in H1 2016. USD strength still remains a constraint on demand, 7.2 4.6 particularly for foreign investors 4.4 6.8 • Apartments yields remained unchanged averaged 7.4% in H1 4.2 Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates 2017 compared with 7.8% in H1 2016. Whilst villa yields remained 6.4 4.0 unchanged averaging 4.8% in both H1 2017 and H1 2016 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Source: Phidar Advisory, Emirates NBD Research Dubai residential property prices Dubai transaction volumes 6 Apartments Villas 600 Apartments (LHS) Villas (RHS) 140 3 500 120 0 100 400 -3 80 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance -6 300 % y/y% 60 -9 200 -12 40 100 Strategy -15 20 -18 0 0 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Source: Phidar Advisory, Emirates NBD Research Source: Phidar Advisory, Emirates NBD Research Appendix 7 UAE Banking Market Update Highlights Bank deposit and loan growth • Money supply (M2) slowed to 6.1% y/y in July compared with Bank Loans (% y/y) Bank deposits (% y/y) AD ratio (RHS) 18% 110% 7.3% y/y in June 2017 Operating Operating Environment 16% 14% 105% • Bank deposits increased by AED 3.1bn and 7.15% y/y to AED 12% 1592.2bn in July 10% 100% 8% 95% • Although the 3m EIBOR rate has increased in recent months, this 6% has been mostly due to higher USD rates, with the spread over 3m 4% 90% LIBOR narrowing 2% 0% 85% -2% -4% 80% Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Dec-10 Sep-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Dec-16 Source: UAE Central Bank; loan growth gross of provisions UAE banking market (AED Bn) GCC banking market Banking Assets Assets USD Bn % GDP(3) Gross Loans 304 1287 1591 (1) UAE 723 168 KSA 609 63 Deposits 320 1269 1589 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance Qatar 359 211 Kuwait 226 214 Assets 456 2198 2654 Bahrain(2) Strategy 57 169 Oman 80 Emirates NBD Other Banks Total 102 Source: UAE Central Bank Statistics and ENBD as at June 2017 1) Includes Foreign Banks; 2) Excludes Foreign Banks; 3) GDP data is for FY 2017 forecasted.
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