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Emirates NBD Investor Presentation Emirates NBD Investor Presentation November 2016 2 Important Information Disclaimer The material in this presentation is general background information about the activities of Emirates NBD Bank PJSC (Emirates NBD), current at the date of this presentation, and believed by Emirates NBD to be accurate and true. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. Some of the information that is relied upon by Emirates NBD is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Emirates NBD (nor any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, affiliates or subsidiaries) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and disclaims all liability or responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any act taken as a result of the information. The information in this presentation is not intended to be relied upon as advice or a recommendation to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. An investor should seek independent professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate. Due to rounding, numbers and percentages presented throughout this presentation may not add up precisely to the totals provided. Forward Looking Statements Certain matters discussed in this presentation about the future performance of Emirates NBD or members of its group (the Group), including without limitation, future revenues, earnings, strategies, prospects and all other statements that are not purely historical, constitute “forward-looking statements”. Such forward-looking statements are based on current expectations or beliefs, as well as assumptions about future events, made from information currently available. Forward-looking statements often use words such as “anticipate”, “target”, “expect”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “goal”, “seek”, “believe”, “will”, “may”, “should”, “would”, “could” or other words of similar meaning. Undue reliance should not be placed on any such statements in making an investment decision, as forward-looking statements, by their nature, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, as well as the Group’s plans and objectives, to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. There are several factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements, such as changes in the global, political, economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory forces; future exchange and interest rates; changes in tax rates; and future business combinations or dispositions. Emirates NBD undertakes no obligation to revise or update any statement, including any forward-looking statement, contained within this presentation, regardless of whether those statements are affected as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 3 UAE Economic Update Highlights Real GDP growth forecasts • UAE economy grew 3.8% in 2015. Non oil sector growth 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Operating Operating Environment slowed to 3.3% last year from 5.3% in 2014. S. Arabia 2.7 3.4 3.4 1.4 1.8 UAE 4.6 3.1 3.8 3.0 3.4 • Oil output in the UAE rose 1.7% y/y in Jan-Sep 2016. Although Qatar 4.6 4.2 3.7 4.2 5.1 non-oil growth is expected to slow further this year, we still Kuwait 1.1 0.5 1.8 2.4 3.0 expect headline real GDP to expand 3.0% in 2016. Oman 4.6 2.5 3.6 3.3 3.1 Bahrain 5.4 4.4 2.9 2.6 3.5 • The September PMI eased further to 54.1 from high of 55.3 in GCC (average) 3.4 3.3 3.4 2.4 3.0 July and 54.7 in August. The decline was due to slower growth Egypt 2.1 2.2 4.2 3.9 5.0 in output, new orders and employment. The data suggests that Jordan 2.8 3.1 2.5 3.0 3.5 Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates the economy gained momentum in Q3 relative to H1 2016. Lebanon 3.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 Tunisia 2.9 2.7 0.6 2.5 3.0 Morocco 4.4 2.0 4.4 2.1 4.8 MENA (average) 2.8 2.2 3.7 3.2 4.5 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Oil Price and UAE oil production UAE PMI – Non oil private sector activity 3.2 125 60 59 3.0 100 58 2.8 75 57 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance 2.6 56 M bpd M 50 2.4 55 USD per barrel per USD 54 2.2 25 53 Strategy 2.0 0 52 51 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-13 50 UAE Oil Production (lhs) ICE Brent (rhs) Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Appendix Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Source: Markit / Emirates NBD 4 Dubai Economic Update (1/3) Highlights Dubai: Real GDP growth 6.0 • Dubai’s economy expanded 4.1% y/y in 2015, up from 5.2 Operating Operating Environment 3.5% in 2014. Wholesale & retail trade remains the largest 5.0 4.6 sector in the economy, and expanded 4.0% in 2015. 4.2 3.9 4.0 Hospitality (restaurant and hotels) was the fastest growing 4.0 3.0 sector in Dubai in 2015, at 8.0% y/y 2.8 3.0 2.5 % y/y % • The ENBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index declined only 2.0 marginally in September to 55.1 from 55.7 in August. Output continued to rise at a very sharp rate in September, 1.0 Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates with this index only fractionally lower than the July peak. 0.0 The new work index is also relatively high at 57.9 but has Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 slowed since July and August. 2014 2015 Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Emirates NBD Research Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index Dubai: Key sector growth rates in 2015 62 10 60 8 58 6 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance 56 4 8.0 % y/y % 54 5.7 5.0 4.4 2 4.0 3.4 52 0.4 Strategy 0 50 48 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Appendix Source : Markit, Emirates NBD Research Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Emirates NBD Research 5 Dubai Economic Update (2/3) Highlights Dubai Airports passenger traffic • Passenger traffic at the Dubai International Airport (DXB) rose 45 mn people thousand tons 1800 Operating Operating Environment 1700 to 55.9 million in Jan-Aug 2016, up by 7.0% y/y. 40 1600 Passenger traffic is expected to exceed 85 million at DXB by 35 • 1500 the end of 2016, according to Dubai Airports. 30 1400 40.5 38.3 1300 • Dubai’s hotel occupancy averaged 76.1% in Jan-Sep 2016, 25 32.7 unchanged compared to the same period in 2015. 1200 27.9 29.6 20 24.6 1100 • The supply of hotel rooms in Dubai increased by 5.8% y/y in Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates Jan-Sep 2016 to 86,151 rooms with the Department of 15 1000 Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Jan-Aug Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM) targeting 140,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to 160,000 hotel rooms by 2020. Passenger traffic (LHS) Freight volumes (RHS) Source: Dubai Airports, Emirates NBD Research Hotel occupancy and RevPAR Composition of Dubai GDP 100 25 Dubai GDP by Sector (%) – 2015 % y/y growth Other 20 Hosp. 90 5% 15 6% 80 10 Financial 70 5 servcs. Trade Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance 0 12% 29% 60 -5 50 -10 Manuf. -15 11% 40 Constr. & RE Strategy -20 22% 30 -25 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Transport & Storage Average hotel occupancy rates, % (LHS) 15% Average revenue per available room, y/y growth, 3M MA (RHS) Appendix Source: STR Global, Emirates NBD Research Source: Dubai Statistics Centre 6 Dubai Economic Update (3/3) Highlights Business licenses issued* • Dubai residential real estate prices have eased further in 160 12 Operating Operating Environment September 2016, although the rate of decline has slowed business licences % y/y since the beginning of 2016. 10 140 • Rents have declined on an annual basis in September, more 8 or less aligned with the annual fall in sales prices. 120 6 Thousands 149.755 139.251 • Real estate sector is likely to continue to face challenges 128.644 4 100 116.385 through 2016 with several factors contributing such as lower 108.438 2 Emirates NBD Profile NBD Emirates oil prices weighing on confidence, increased supply, USD strength and economic developments in investors’ home 80 0 markets. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Licences (LHS) % y/y (RHS) Source: DSC, *Licenses issued by DED only (excludes Freezones) Dubai residential property prices Dubai transaction volumes 1600 200 Apartments Villas Apartments (LHS) Villas (RHS) 6 180 1400 3 160 1200 0 140 Financial & Operating & Operating Financial Performance -3 1000 120 -6 100 % y/y 800 -9 80 600 Strategy -12 60 400 -15 40 -18 200 20 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Appendix Source: Phidar Advisory, Emirates NBD Research Source: Phidar Advisory, Emirates NBD Research 7 UAE Banking Market Update Highlights Bank deposit and loan growth • M2 growth increased by 3.6% y/y/ in September 2016.
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