Arnside Risk Management Review 1. Introduction
Our approach to responding to risk is well developed and as well as assessing the overall risk of a local area, our resource and response requirements will continue to be determined by considering the following:
Geographical cover – the area of service provision. This is driven by the geographical dispersion of potential incidents and the distance to travel by our response vehicles;
Workload – the likely number of independent responses required, taking into account historical incident data;
Type of response – the characteristics of the risk which determine the resource requirement within that area;
Weight of attack – the amount of equipment and staff required to deal with an incident based on an analysis of the potential impact of each emergency situation.
Inevitably some of the above factors are intrinsically linked. There is dependency between ‘type of response’ and ‘weight of attack’. Furthermore, other factors such as response time, firefighter safety and local topology serve as constraints for defining the limits of these variables. We will continue to focus our efforts on risk reduction initiatives, however, fully understand that a modern fire and rescue service should be governed by the following principles:
Maintain public protection from fire and, if possible, enhance that protection by means of proactive prevention and protection activity;
Actively promote firefighter safety;
Provide a primary focus of fire cover which continues to be directly addressed to life risk;
Continue to be cost effective and consistent with the principles of best value for public money.
- 1 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2. Our Performance – Arnside
In order to further develop an efficient, effective and economic risk plan for Arnside it is important to evaluate our performance. The following charts demonstrate our performance in recent years:
2.1 All Incidents
The following tables demonstrate the incident activity in Arnside’s nominal Station area.
C63: Arnside - All Incidents (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10
5 No. No. of Incidents 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 28 18 22 19 22 26
- 2 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.2 All Fires
C63: Arnside - All Fires (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15
No. No. of Fires 10 5 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 2 5 5 12 6 6
- 3 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.3 Dwelling Fires
C63: Arnside - All Dwelling Fires (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
No. No. of DwellingFires 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 0 1 1 3 0 0
- 4 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.4 Injuries in Dwelling Fires
C63: Arnside - All Dwelling Fire related Casualties (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10
5 No. No. of Casualties 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Arnside 0 0 0 0 0 0
- 5 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.5 Deliberate fires
C63: Arnside - All Deliberate Fires (2009-10 to 2014-15) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 No. No. of Deliberate Fires Arnside 0 1 3 7 0 0
- 6 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 2.6 False Alarms
- 7 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0)
2.7 Special Service Calls
- 8 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3. Analysis of Risk
The Fire Risk Model
In order to be in a position where we can analyse risk in a way that allows us to determine whether our prevention and protection strategies are having the desired effect, Cumbria Fire & Rescue Service (CFRS) introduced a new fire risk model as part of the 2011-14 Integrated Risk Management Planning (IRMP). This revised approach was subjected to a detailed public and key stakeholder consultation at that time and the outcomes from that process were used to determine our final risk model.
The fire risk model involves an analysis of fires and associated casualties, along with a consideration of the deprivation within each Super Output Area (SOA) by use of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score. The IMD 2007 is a measure of multiple deprivations and is made up of seven domain indices. These are:
Income; Employment; Health Deprivation and Disability; Education, Skills and Training; Barriers to Housing and Services; Crime; Living Environment.
- 9 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3.1 Cumbria Risk Profile
Using the above methodology the Service is in a position to assess each SOA and classify the risk as high, medium or low. CFRS have adopted this approach since the start of the 2011 IRMP and can determine that overall risk has reduced by approximately -19% when comparing the latest 5 years of statistics with those used in 2010/11. Furthermore, risk within our most vulnerable high risk (in terms of fire) communities has reduced by some -79% over the same period.
The county now only has one small area that is classified by CFRS as ‘high risk’ and a summary of the risk profile is provided below:
Incidents 2005/6 - Incidents 2006/7 - Incidents 2007/8 - Incidents 2008/9 - Incidents 2009/10 – Incidents 2010/11 – Cumbria Risk Profile 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 2010/11 Risk* 2011/12 Risk 2012/13 Risk 2013/14 Risk 2014/15 Risk 2015/16 Risk
Risk Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Score Grade Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs
76 and above High 1294 15 1136 14 956 12 318 4 230 3 78 1 35 to 75 Medium 6980 139 6328 129 5526 116 5426 117 5006 108 4568 99 34 and below Low 3920 167 4198 178 4520 193 4622 200 4818 210 5200 221 12194 321 11662 321 11002 321 10322 321 10054 321 9846 321 Total Risk Score 11622 11002 10366 10054 9846 Risk Score 12194 Increase/Reduction over -4.4% -9.8% -15.0% -17.5% -19.3% the period
*Note: The risk score documented in 2010/11 shows a slight change (in terms of risk score, not number of SOAs in each band) to that documented in the 2011-14 IRMP. The reason is that the data to support the above has been taken from CLG and that used in the IRMP was local data; due to the timings of the 2011-14 IRMP publication a small number of incidents had not been quality assured and finalised on the national IRS database.
- 10 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3.2 Arnside Risk Profile
The Fire Risk model shows that the risk across Arnside is low. The table demonstrates a decrease in risk and the overall risk is extremely low.
Incidents 2005/6 Incidents 2006/7 - Incidents 2007/8 Incidents 2008/9 - Incidents 2009/10 Incidents 2010/11 Arnside Risk Profile - 09/10 10/11 - 11/12 12/13 – 13/14 – 14/15 2010/11 Risk 2011/12 Risk 2012/13 Risk 2013/14 Risk 2014/15 Risk 2015/16 Risk
Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Risk No. Of Score Risk Grade Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs Score SOAs
76 and above High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 to 75 Medium 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 and below Low 58 3 66 3 48 3 50 3 48 3 52 3 58 3 66 3 48 3 50 3 48 3 52 3 Total Risk Score 66 48 50 48 52 Risk Score 58 Increase/Reduction over the 13.8% -17.2% -13.8% -17.2% -10.3% period
- 11 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 3.3 Next nearest Supporting Appliances
The following table indicates the travel distance in miles from Arnside Fire Station to the next nearest three fire stations, along with the anticipated travel time (note: On-call firefighters take approximately 5 minutes to get to the fire station before they can respond to the incident). The distances and times are based on road mapping software.
Arnside
Distance Time Neighbour Supporting Station Name (miles) (minutes)
1st Nearest 3 Milnthorpe 8
2nd Nearest 4 Silverdale (LANCS) 10
3rd Nearest 7.5 Carnforth (LANCS) 18
- 12 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 4. Our Resources across Arnside
Fire Station and Appliances
In Arnside, CFRS operate from a fire station at Silverdale Road. The station has one fire appliance that is currently crewed by 11 on-call firefighters.
On-Call Firefighters
On-Call firefighters are a vital part of CFRS. Nationwide, approximately 18,000 On-Call firefighters provide efficient, cost effective and reliable fire and rescue cover to around 60% of the UK and across Cumbria they provide cover at 36 of our 38 fire stations.
On-Call crews will be called upon to attend the full range of incidents including fires, floods, road traffic collisions, chemical spills and more, and work alongside their full-time colleagues at many incidents.
Apart from a few hours a week for training sessions and to carry out other pre-arranged duties, On-Call firefighters only attend the fire station when they have received an emergency callout. Each On-Call firefighter carries a pocket alerter, which is activated when they are needed and they subsequently report to the fire station and mobilise the necessary appliance(s). On occasions, this type of duty system means that appliances are sometimes ‘off the run’ due to insufficient fire-fighters being available to form a crew.
- 13 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) Fire Engine Provision/Comparison
Arnside (8 mile radius from Arnside Fire Station):
Household and population statistics (within the 8 mile radius as detailed on the plan):
All Dwellings – 20,385 All Usual Residents – 44,889
Existing Fire Cover Provision: The area is covered by 3 on-call crewed fire engines in Cumbria and 3 on- call fire engines from Lancashire FRS. Support outside the 8 mile radius is stationed at K/Lonsdale, Kendal (2 fire engines) and Morecambe (2 fire engines; Lancashire FRS)
Within the 8 mile radius resources are located as follows:
Arnside Fire Station: 1 on-call fire engine Grange Fire Station: 1 on-call fire engine
Support from Lancashire FRS: Milnthorpe Fire Station: 1 on-call fire engine
Silverdale Fire Station: 1 on-call fire engine Carnforth Fire Station: 1 on-call fire engine Bolton-le-Sands Fire Station: 1 on-call fire engine
Fire stations Fire engines
- 14 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0)
Carlisle City (8 mile radius from Carlisle City Centre) – fire cover comparison:
Household and population statistics (within the 8 mile radius as detailed on the plan):
All Dwellings – 45,244 All Usual Residents – 99,883
Existing Fire Cover Provision: The area is covered by 2 Regular crewed fire engines and 1 Aerial Ladder Platform (ALP). One of the fire engines is stationed at Carlisle ‘West’ at Brookside and the other resources are located at the Locality Headquarters/fire station on Eastern Way. The crewing models currently in place are based on the traditional 2/2/4 duty system with regular fire-fighters on 4 Watches.
Within the 8 mile radius resources are located as follows:
Carlisle East – 5 per shift (4 for the fire engine and 1 to alternate crew the ALP) 20 total
Carlisle West – 4 per shift to crew the one fire engine. 16 total
Carlisle City Centre Fire Engines
- 15 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) Arnside Appliance Availability 2014
During the 2014 calendar year the Arnside fire appliance had been off the run of the following occasions:
- 16 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) Individual Fire Engine Activity
In the 6 years from 2009 to 2015 (fiscal years), the Arnside fire appliance (63P1) was turned out and booked in attendance at the following number of incidents:
Year/Number of Incidents Incident Location 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Total C44 Dalton 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 C45 Grange 1 0 0 1 2 0 4 C60 Kendal 0 1 0 0 1 1 3 C63 Arnside 28 18 20 15 22 21 124 C40 Barrow 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 C66 Milnthorpe 3 9 11 5 7 5 40 C70 Windermere 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Total 32 28 32 22 32 28 174
The following table provides information on the actual number of ‘turnouts’ the fire engine has had over the period.
Year/Number of turnouts April 2015- 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Nov 2015 36 29 33 34 15
- 17 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0)
Other Contextual Information
Arnside is a large village with a population of around 4000, situated on the Kent estuary in the south-west of the county.
One particular problem for the local station is rescues from the notorious quicksand in and around the Kent estuary area. Over the years many people have been rescued by the Fire & Rescue Service when they have underestimated the danger of walking along the beaches. Although a relatively quiet area, a significant risk within the station area is a Cumbrian coast rail line, which, in addition to passenger and freight services, carries nuclear flasks en-route to Sellafield and West Cumbria.
Arnside Risk in Station Area Bridge House Heritage Grade II* listed: Arnside Tower SPA: Morecambe Bay Environment 4 Sites of Specific Scientific Interest Site Specific Risk Cumbria coast rail line Flooding No significant Flood Risk identified within the Station area
- 18 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0) 5. Options/Proposals
The proposal is to close Arnside Fire Station.
6. Transparency
In order to provide transparency this section provides clarity on the impact on service provision should the above proposal be implemented:
Closing the fire station at Arnside would mean that the next nearest fire engine would respond to any incidents in the village. The nearest fire engine is based in Milnthorpe (3 miles). Therefore, there will be a time delay to respond to incidents in the village;
At present, all of the SOAs within Arnside’s station ground are classified as low risk, therefore attracting a first fire engine response time of 15 minutes on 80% of occasions. Statistical evidence using the past 6 years of primary fire incidents indicates that the Fire Authority would still be able to achieve its response standards;
Closing the station would result in an increase of fire calls for neighbouring stations; some of these stations are over the border in Lancashire FRS. There are existing “13/16 agreements” in place but these would need to be reviewed;
Closing the fire station may result in 11 on-call fire-fighters being made redundant.
- 19 - 08 October 2015 (v1.0)