HARVARD UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL OF DESIGN
GSD 5103: PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT
Review Session #1: The Setup
• Real Estate Financial Analysis Jeopardy • Single-Period Return Measures • Capitalized Value • Highest & Best Use Analysis • Verde Lofts Setup Worksheet Q & A
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
THE SETUP
For What Purposes Would a Developer Conduct a One-Year Analysis of a Property’s Projected Performance?
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
THE SETUP
For What Purposes Would a Developer Conduct a One-Year Analysis of a Property’s Projected Performance?
A) Determine Whether Listed Sale Price is Reasonable B) Decide Whether Project is Feasible C) Satisfy Mortgage Lender’s Requirements D) Decide Among Competing Opportunities E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
THE SETUP
For What Purposes Would a Developer Conduct a One-Year Analysis of a Property’s Projected Performance?
A) Determine Whether Listed Sale Price is Reasonable B) Decide Whether Project is Feasible C) Satisfy Mortgage Lender’s Requirements D) Decide Among Competing Opportunities E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
THE SETUP
Which of the Following is Not Part of the Setup?
A) Return Measures B) Income C) Net Proceeds from Sale D) Expenses E) Assumptions
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
THE SETUP
Which of the Following is Not Part of the Setup?
A) Return Measures B) Income C) Net Proceeds from Sale D) Expenses E) Assumptions
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
When Calculating Potential Gross Income (PGI), Which Measurement is Used to Compute Rent Revenue?
NET SQUARE FOOTAGE GROSS SQUARE FOOTAGE
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
When Calculating Potential Gross Income (PGI), Which Measurement is Used to Compute Rent Revenue?
NET SQUARE FOOTAGE GROSS SQUARE FOOTAGE
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
For Which of the Following Uses is Rent Quoted on a Monthly Basis?
A) Industrial B) Hotel C) Office D) Residential E) Retail
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
For Which of the Following Uses is Rent Quoted on a Monthly Basis?
A) Industrial B) Hotel C) Office D) Residential E) Retail
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
What Accounts for the Difference Between Potential Gross Income (PGI) and Effective Gross Income (EGI)?
A) Rent Concessions B) Credit Loss C) Ancillary Revenue D) Vacancy E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
What Accounts for the Difference Between Potential Gross Income (PGI) and Effective Gross Income (EGI)?
A) Rent Concessions B) Credit Loss C) Ancillary Revenue D) Vacancy E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
Which of the Following is Not Considered a Source of Additional Income?
A) Security Deposit B) Pet Fees C) Laundry D) Parking E) Vending Machines
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
INCOME
Which of the Following is Not Considered a Source of Additional Income?
A) Security Deposit B) Pet Fees C) Laundry D) Parking E) Vending Machines
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
Which Measurement is Used to Calculate Expenses Paid by the Building Owner?
NET SQUARE FOOTAGE GROSS SQUARE FOOTAGE
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
Which Measurement is Used to Calculate Expenses Paid by the Building Owner?
NET SQUARE FOOTAGE GROSS SQUARE FOOTAGE
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
If a Tenant Occupies Space Under the Terms of a Triple-Net (NNN) Lease, Which of the Following Expenses is Paid by the Building Owner?
A) Maintenance B) Insurance C) Utilities D) Replacement Reserve Contribution E) Real Estate Taxes
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
If a Tenant Occupies Space Under the Terms of a Triple-Net (NNN) Lease, Which of the Following Expenses is Paid by the Building Owner?
A) Maintenance B) Insurance C) Utilities D) Replacement Reserve Contribution E) Real Estate Taxes
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
Which of the Following Would be Considered a Capital Expenditure?
A) Painting B) Annual Elevator Inspection C) Snow Removal D) Irrigation System Winterization E) Solar Panels
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
Which of the Following Would be Considered a Capital Expenditure?
A) Painting B) Annual Elevator Inspection C) Snow Removal D) Irrigation System Winterization E) Solar Panels
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
On What Basis are Real Estate Taxes Calculated?
A) Sale Price B) Market Value C) Assessed Value D) Listing Price E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
On What Basis are Real Estate Taxes Calculated?
A) Sale Price B) Market Value C) Assessed Value D) Listing Price E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
Which Government Authority Assesses and Collects Real Estate Taxes?
A) School District B) State C) Federal Government D) Municipality E) Neighborhood Council
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
Which Government Authority Assesses and Collects Real Estate Taxes?
A) School District B) State C) Federal Government D) Municipality E) Neighborhood Council
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
What is the Best Source for Estimating Real Estate Taxes on a Particular Property?
A) Real Estate Brokers’ Property Listings B) Current Owner C) Current Tenants D) Industry Association Expense Survey Data E) Assessor’s Database
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
What is the Best Source for Estimating Real Estate Taxes on a Particular Property?
A) Real Estate Brokers' Property Listings B) Current Owner C) Current Tenants D) Industry Association Expense Survey Data E) Assessor’s Database
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
For Which of the Following Could a Building Owner Use Funds from the Replacement Reserve?
A) Water/Sewer Sub-Metering B) Lobby Furniture C) Window Treatments D) Gutter Cleaning E) Deck Staining
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
EXPENSES
For Which of the Following Could a Building Owner Use Funds from the Replacement Reserve?
A) Water/Sewer Sub-Metering B) Lobby Furniture C) Window Treatments D) Gutter Cleaning E) Deck Staining
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
Which of the Following Permanent Debt Service Components Remains the Same over the Entire Loan Term?
A) Outstanding Loan Balance B) Amortization C) Periodic Payment D) Interest E) Principal Repayment
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
Which of the Following Permanent Debt Service Components Remains the Same over the Entire Loan Term?
A) Outstanding Loan Balance B) Amortization C) Periodic Payment D) Interest E) Principal Repayment
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
With Each Payment, Which of the Following Permanent Debt Service Components Increases?
A) Outstanding Loan Balance B) Amortization C) Periodic Payment D) Interest E) Initial Loan Amount
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
With Each Payment, Which of the Following Permanent Debt Service Components Increases?
A) Outstanding Loan Balance B) Amortization C) Periodic Payment D) Interest E) Initial Loan Amount
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
How Do You Determine the Outstanding Loan Balance?
A) Subtract Principal Repayment B) Subtract Debt Service Payment C) Subtract Origination Fees D) Subtract Pre-Payment Penalty E) Subtract Interest Payment
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
How Do You Determine the Outstanding Loan Balance?
A) Subtract Principal Repayment B) Subtract Debt Service Payment C) Subtract Origination Fees D) Subtract Pre-Payment Penalty E) Subtract Interest Payment
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
Which of the Following is True of a Ground Lease?
A) Short-Term Lease B) Has Priority Over the Permanent Mortgage Loan C) Lease Payments are Fully Tax Deductible D) Only Used by Private Land Owners E) May Not Be Combined with Other Debt Sources
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
DEBT SERVICE
Which of the Following is True of a Ground Lease?
A) Short-Term Lease B) Has Priority Over the Permanent Mortgage Loan C) Lease Payments are Fully Tax Deductible D) Only Used by Private Land Owners E) May Not Be Combined with Other Debt Sources
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which of the Following Adjustments are Used to Calculate Taxable Income?
A) Depreciation B) Ground Lease Payment C) Replacement Reserve D) Credit Loss E) Amortization
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which of the Following Adjustments are Used to Calculate Taxable Income?
A) Depreciation B) Ground Lease Payment C) Replacement Reserve D) Credit Loss E) Amortization
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which of the Following Are Depreciable?
A) Land B) Replacement Reserves C) Routine Maintenance D) Building Cost E) Acquisition Cost
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which of the Following Are Depreciable?
A) Land B) Replacement Reserves C) Routine Maintenance D) Building Cost E) Acquisition Cost
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which Depreciation Schedule Should be Used for a Mixed-Use Building Consisting of Hotel & Retail?
A) 20 Years B) 27.5 Years C) 30 Years D) 39 Years E) 50 Years
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which Depreciation Schedule Should be Used for a Mixed-Use Building Consisting of Hotel & Retail?
A) 20 Years B) 27.5 Years C) 30 Years D) 39 Years E) 50 Years
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which Depreciation Schedule Should be Used for a Mixed-Use Building Consisting of Apartments & Retail?
A) 20 Years B) 27.5 Years C) 30 Years D) 39 Years E) 50 Years
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
Which Depreciation Schedule Should be Used for a Mixed-Use Building Consisting of Apartments & Retail?
A) 20 Years B) 27.5 Years C) 30 Years D) 39 Years E) 50 Years
Apportion Residential & Commercial Building Costs, Depreciate Separately on Appropriate Depreciation Recovery Schedule
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
How Might a Building Owner Apply Passive Losses?
A) Apply to Other Passive Income B) Suspend Losses Until Building is Sold C) Carry Losses Forward D) Apply Accrued Losses to Reduce to Capital Gain in Excess of Depreciation E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
TAXABLE INCOME
How Might a Building Owner Apply Passive Losses?
A) Apply to Other Passive Income B) Suspend Losses Until Building is Sold C) Carry Losses Forward D) Apply Accrued Losses to Reduce to Capital Gain in Excess of Depreciation E) All of the Above
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
CASH FLOWS
Which Cash Flow is the Most Important Determinant of Building Value?
A) Net Operating Income (NOI) B) Potential Gross Income (PGI) C) Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT) D) Effective Gross Income (EGI) E) Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF)
© Kristen Hunter 2016 RE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS JEOPARDY
CASH FLOWS
Which Cash Flow is the Most Important Determinant of Building Value?
A) Net Operating Income (NOI) B) Potential Gross Income (PGI) C) Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT) D) Effective Gross Income (EGI) E) Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF)
© Kristen Hunter 2016 SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI) RETURN ON TOTAL EXPENSES (Operating Expenses) ASSETS (ROTA) = (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Year 1 NOI Net Operating Income (NOI) TDC or Asset Price
DEBT (Annual Debt Service) (Ground Lease Payments) Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF)
TAXES (Tax Payment) Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT)
© Kristen Hunter 2016
SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI) RETURN ON TOTAL EXPENSES (Operating Expenses) ASSETS (ROTA) = (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Year 1 NOI Net Operating Income (NOI) TDC or Asset Price
DEBT (Annual Debt Service) (Ground Lease Payments) $100,000 = 10% Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF) $1,000,000
TAXES (Tax Payment) Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT)
© Kristen Hunter 2016
SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI) RETURN ON TOTAL EXPENSES (Operating Expenses) ASSETS (ROTA) = (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Year 1 NOI Net Operating Income (NOI) TDC or Asset Price
DEBT (Annual Debt Service) (Ground Lease Payments) Return on Cost (ROC) Return on Assets (ROA) Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF ) Going-In Yield/Cap Rate Overall Cap Rate TAXES (Tax Payment) Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT)
© Kristen Hunter 2016
SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
IRR® Viewpoint 2015 National Real Estate Market
2014 Capitalization Rates, Discount Rates, and Reversion Rates (Table 4)
RETURN ON TOTAL
ASSETS (ROTA) =
Atlanta, GA Austin, TX Baltimore, MD Birmingham, AL Boise, ID Boston, MA Broward-Palm Beach, FL Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Chicago, IL Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbia, SC Columbus, OH Dallas, TX Dayton, OH Denver, CO Detroit, MI Fort Worth, TX Greensboro, NC Greenville, SC Hartford, CT Houston, TX Indianapolis, IN Jackson, MS Jacksonville, FL Kansas City, MO/KS Las Vegas, NV Long Island, NY Los Angeles, CA Louisville, KY Property Type Year 1 NOI CBD Office 6.75 6.25 6.75 8.00 7.00 4.75 6.30 7.00 6.00 5.75 8.25 8.25 7.75 8.50 6.25 10.50 5.75 8.75 6.50 8.00 7.75 8.25 7.50 8.50 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.50 6.50 5.50 7.50 Suburban Office 7.50 6.50 7.00 8.25 7.75 6.25 7.10 8.25 7.75 7.50 8.50 8.25 8.25 8.25 6.50 8.50 TDC6.50 8.50 7.00 or9.00 Asset7.75 8.50 8.00 8.00Price7.50 8.00 7.75 8.00 6.50 6.50 7.25 Industrial 6.25 6.00 5.25 8.25 7.50 6.25 7.10 8.25 7.25 6.50 8.50 8.50 7.00 8.00 6.00 9.00 6.75 8.75 6.25 9.00 7.25 8.75 7.50 6.75 9.50 7.50 7.25 8.00 5.50 6.00 7.50 Flex Industrial 7.75 7.75 7.00 8.75 7.75 8.00 7.60 8.50 8.50 7.50 8.50 9.00 7.75 8.50 7.50 9.00 7.25 8.50 7.50 8.50 8.00 8.75 7.75 8.25 9.00 8.50 9.00 8.00 6.25 6.50 8.00 Urban Multifamily 5.00 5.50 5.50 6.00 5.75 4.00 5.10 5.80 5.00 5.25 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.00Cap8.00 5.00Rates7.00 5.25 Vary6.50 6.00 by5.75 Market5.50 5.75 6.50 Area5.65 5.50, 5.50 5.00 4.00 7.00 Suburban Multifam 5.50 5.75 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.60 6.50 5.50 6.00 7.00 6.50 6.00 6.00 5.75 6.75 5.25 6.50 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.50 5.00 4.25 6.50
CLASS A CLASS Regional Mall Retail 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.25 6.00 5.50 7.00 7.25 5.75 8.50 8.00 7.00 7.50 6.50 8.25 6.00 7.00 Asset6.50 8.00 7.00Type7.50 8.00 7.00 9.50 7.50 6.50 5.75 5.00 6.50 6.50 Community Retail 7.00 6.75 5.75 7.00 7.50 6.50 6.80 7.75 7.25 7.00 8.25 8.50 7.50 8.00 6.75 8.50&6.50 Over8.00 6.75 a 8.00Market7.50 8.50 7.50Cycle8.00 8.50 8.25 7.25 7.00 6.00 6.75 7.50 Neighborhood Retail 7.25 7.00 6.00 7.00 7.75 6.25 7.40 7.25 7.00 7.75 8.75 9.00 7.00 8.00 7.00 8.75 6.25 8.75 7.00 8.00 7.00 8.50 7.50 8.50 9.00 7.75 7.50 7.50 6.50 7.00 7.50 GOING-IN CAP RATES (%) RATES GOING-IN CAP Lodging - Full Service 7.75 7.50 8.00 9.25 6.75 8.00 8.75 7.50 8.50 9.00 8.25 8.50 8.00 8.50 7.50 7.50 8.00 9.25 8.25 8.50 8.00 8.50 10.00 8.25 9.50 9.25 7.50 7.50 10.00 Lodging - Limited 8.75 8.25 8.75 8.25 7.75 8.50 9.25 8.75 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.00 9.00 9.75 9.25 9.50 9.00 9.50 11.00 9.25 9.00 9.00 8.00 8.25 8.50
CBD Office 7.75 7.00 8.50 8.75 7.25 5.50 7.70 8.50 7.50 6.25 9.25 9.00 7.75 9.00 7.00 11.25 6.50 9.00 7.50 10.00 7.75 9.25 7.50 9.00 10.25 9.00 8.50 7.75 7.50 6.00 8.00 Suburban Office 8.50 7.50 8.00 9.00 8.25 7.25 7.40 9.25 8.25 8.50 9.50 8.75 8.00 8.75 7.50 9.25 7.00 8.75 7.50 10.00 8.00 9.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.25 8.50 8.50 7.50 7.00 8.00 Urban Multifamily 6.00 6.25 6.00 7.25 6.75 5.00 6.10 7.00 6.00 6.00 7.50 7.25 6.75 7.00 6.25 8.50 5.50 7.50 6.25 8.00 6.50 8.75 5.50 7.00 7.00 6.15 6.50 6.50 6.00 5.25 8.00 CLASS B CLASS © KristenGOING-IN Hunter 2016 Suburban Multifam
CAP RATES (%) RATES CAP 6.50 6.25 6.25 7.50 7.00 6.00 6.35 6.23 6.75 6.75 7.50 7.25 6.75 7.00 6.75 7.50 6.00 7.25 6.75 8.00 6.75 6.75 6.00 7.50 7.00 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.00 5.25 7.00
CBD Office 7.75 7.75 8.00 9.00 9.00 6.25 8.80 8.25 7.00 7.25 9.50 9.50 9.00 9.50 7.75 12.00 7.50 10.00 7.75 9.50 9.00 8.75 8.50 9.75 9.00 8.75 8.75 9.25 7.25 7.00 9.00 Suburban Office 8.50 8.00 8.25 9.25 9.75 7.75 8.30 9.50 8.25 8.75 9.75 9.50 9.75 9.25 8.00 9.75 8.00 10.00 8.00 10.00 9.25 9.00 9.00 9.25 8.50 9.25 8.50 9.25 7.25 8.00 9.00 Industrial 7.50 7.25 6.25 9.25 9.50 7.25 8.00 8.50 8.50 7.75 9.75 9.50 8.50 8.75 7.50 9.75 7.50 10.00 7.75 9.50 9.00 10.00 8.50 7.75 10.50 8.50 8.25 9.25 6.75 7.50 9.00 Flex Industrial 9.00 9.00 8.25 9.75 9.75 8.75 8.25 9.50 8.75 8.50 9.75 9.75 9.00 9.25 8.75 10.00 8.25 9.75 8.75 10.00 9.25 10.00 8.75 9.25 10.00 9.50 10.00 9.50 7.25 8.00 9.00 Urban Multifamily 6.25 7.50 6.50 7.25 8.75 5.25 6.25 7.30 6.50 6.00 8.00 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.25 9.00 7.50 8.25 7.50 8.00 8.25 7.50 6.50 6.75 8.00 6.75 6.50 8.00 6.50 6.00 8.50 Suburban Multifamily 6.75 8.00 6.50 7.00 9.00 6.25 7.10 8.00 5.75 7.00 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 8.00 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.00 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50 6.75 8.00 6.50 6.25 9.00
CLASS A CLASS Regional Mall Retail 8.50 8.75 8.75 9.25 8.00 6.50 8.25 10.00 7.25 9.75 9.00 9.00 8.50 8.75 8.50 7.00 8.00 8.75 10.00 8.75 8.50 9.00 8.00 10.50 9.00 7.50 8.00 6.50 8.50 8.50 Community Retail 8.75 8.25 6.75 8.50 9.50 7.75 7.80 9.00 8.50 8.25 9.50 9.50 9.25 9.00 8.00 9.00 7.75 8.75 8.00 9.50 9.00 9.50 8.50 9.00 9.50 9.25 8.00 8.50 7.00 8.25 8.75 DISCOUNT RATES (%) RATES DISCOUNT Neighborhood Retail 9.25 8.25 7.00 8.50 9.75 7.50 8.40 8.50 8.00 8.50 10.00 10.00 8.50 9.00 8.25 9.25 7.50 9.50 8.00 9.00 8.50 9.50 8.50 9.50 10.00 8.75 8.50 8.75 7.00 8.50 8.50 Lodging - Full Service 9.75 10.00 9.50 11.25 8.25 9.75 10.50 8.25 10.00 10.50 10.75 10.00 10.50 10.00 9.75 9.75 10.50 11.00 11.00 9.50 9.00 10.75 11.00 10.75 11.50 11.00 8.00 8.25 12.00 Lodging - Limited 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 9.25 10.00 10.75 9.25 10.50 10.50 10.75 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.75 10.75 10.50 11.25 11.75 10.50 10.00 10.75 12.00 10.75 11.00 10.75 8.50 9.50 10.50
CBD Office 8.75 8.50 9.75 9.75 9.75 7.50 9.10 9.25 8.50 8.25 10.50 10.00 9.00 10.00 8.50 12.75 8.00 10.25 8.50 12.00 9.00 9.75 8.50 10.25 11.25 10.00 9.25 9.50 8.25 7.50 9.75 Suburban Office 9.50 8.75 9.25 10.00 10.25 8.75 8.60 10.25 9.75 9.00 10.75 9.75 9.25 9.75 8.50 10.25 8.25 10.25 8.50 12.00 9.25 9.50 9.00 9.75 10.00 10.25 9.00 9.75 8.25 8.50 9.75 Urban Multifamily 7.25 8.50 7.00 8.75 9.75 6.25 7.35 7.80 7.50 6.75 9.00 9.00 8.25 8.50 8.25 9.50 8.00 8.75 8.25 8.50 8.25 9.25 6.50 7.75 8.00 7.25 7.50 9.00 7.50 7.25 9.50 CLASS B CLASS RATES (%) RATES DISCOUNT Suburban Multifamily 8.25 8.50 7.25 8.50 10.00 7.25 7.60 8.50 6.75 7.00 9.00 9.00 8.25 8.50 8.75 8.75 8.25 8.25 8.75 8.50 8.75 9.00 7.00 8.50 8.00 8.00 7.50 9.00 7.50 7.25 9.50
CBD Office 7.25 6.75 7.25 8.50 7.25 5.25 6.50 8.00 7.00 6.75 8.75 9.00 8.25 8.75 6.50 11.00 6.50 9.25 7.00 9.00 8.75 8.75 8.00 9.00 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.00 7.00 6.00 7.75 Suburban Office 8.00 7.25 7.50 8.75 8.00 6.75 7.20 9.00 8.25 8.50 9.00 9.00 8.75 8.50 7.25 9.00 7.25 9.25 7.25 9.50 8.75 8.75 8.50 8.50 8.00 8.50 8.25 8.50 7.00 7.00 7.50 Industrial 6.75 7.50 5.75 8.75 7.75 7.25 7.50 8.00 8.00 7.25 9.00 8.75 7.50 8.25 6.75 9.50 7.00 9.50 6.75 9.00 8.00 9.25 8.00 7.25 10.00 8.00 7.75 8.50 6.00 6.50 8.00 Flex Industrial 8.25 8.00 7.50 9.25 8.00 8.00 8.00 9.25 8.50 8.50 9.00 9.50 8.25 8.75 7.75 9.75 7.50 8.75 7.75 9.00 8.50 8.75 8.25 8.75 9.50 9.00 9.50 8.50 6.50 7.00 8.50 Urban Multifamily 5.50 6.00 6.00 6.50 6.25 4.50 5.80 6.25 5.00 6.00 7.00 7.75 7.00 6.75 5.75 8.50 5.50 8.25 6.00 7.50 6.75 6.25 6.00 6.00 7.00 6.15 6.00 6.00 5.50 4.50 7.50 Suburban Multifam 6.00 6.25 6.00 6.25 6.50 5.50 6.40 7.00 5.75 6.50 7.50 7.75 7.00 7.75 6.00 7.25 5.75 7.00 6.25 7.00 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.75 7.00 6.75 6.25 6.00 5.50 4.75 7.00
CLASS A CLASS Regional Mall Retail 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.50 6.50 6.00 7.50 7.75 7.25 9.00 8.50 8.00 8.00 7.00 8.75 6.50 8.00 7.25 8.20 7.75 7.75 8.50 7.50 10.00 8.00 7.00 6.25 5.50 7.00 7.25 Community Retail 7.50 7.25 6.25 7.50 7.75 7.25 7.25 7.75 8.00 7.75 8.75 9.00 8.50 8.50 7.25 9.00 7.00 9.00 7.25 8.50 8.25 9.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 8.75 7.75 7.50 6.25 7.25 7.75
REVERSION RATES (%) RATES REVERSION Neighborhood Retail 7.75 7.25 6.50 7.50 8.00 7.00 7.80 8.25 7.50 8.50 9.25 9.00 8.25 8.50 7.50 9.25 6.75 9.00 7.25 8.00 7.75 9.00 8.00 9.00 9.50 8.50 8.00 8.00 6.75 7.50 7.75 Lodging - Full Service 8.25 8.50 8.75 9.75 7.25 8.50 9.25 8.00 9.00 9.50 9.25 9.00 8.25 9.00 8.50 8.50 8.50 9.75 9.00 9.00 8.50 9.00 10.50 8.75 10.00 9.25 8.00 7.25 10.50 Lodging - Limited 9.25 8.75 9.50 8.75 8.25 8.75 9.75 9.75 9.50 9.50 10.00 9.50 9.25 9.50 9.00 9.00 9.25 10.25 10.25 10.00 9.50 10.00 11.50 9.75 9.75 9.00 8.25 8.25 9.00
CBD Office 8.25 7.25 9.00 9.25 7.50 6.00 7.75 9.00 8.50 7.00 9.75 9.50 8.25 9.25 7.00 11.75 7.25 9.50 8.00 11.00 8.75 9.25 8.00 9.50 10.75 9.50 9.00 8.25 8.00 6.50 8.75 Suburban Office 9.00 8.00 8.50 9.50 8.50 7.72 8.20 9.50 9.75 9.00 10.00 9.25 8.25 9.00 7.75 9.75 8.00 9.50 7.75 11.00 9.00 9.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 9.75 8.75 9.00 8.00 7.50 8.50 Urban Multifamily 6.50 6.50 6.50 8.00 7.25 5.50 6.65 7.50 6.00 6.50 8.00 8.50 7.50 6.75 6.50 9.00 6.00 8.75 6.50 7.00 9.25 6.00 7.25 7.50 6.50 7.00 7.00 6.50 5.75 8.50 CLASS B CLASS RATES (%) RATES REVERSION Suburban Multifamily 7.00 6.50 6.75 7.75 7.50 6.50 6.70 7.00 6.75 7.25 8.00 8.50 7.50 7.75 6.50 8.00 6.50 8.00 6.75 7.50 7.50 7.25 6.50 8.00 7.50 7.25 7.00 7.00 6.50 5.75 7.50
4 SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI) AFTER-TAX RETURN ON EXPENSES (Operating Expenses) EQUITY (ROE) = (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Year 1 CFAT Net Operating Income (NOI) Equity Invested
DEBT (Annual Debt Service) (Ground Lease Payments)
Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF)
TAXES (Tax Payment) Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT)
© Kristen Hunter 2016
SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI) AFTER-TAX RETURN ON EXPENSES (Operating Expenses) EQUITY (ROE) = (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Year 1 CFAT Net Operating Income (NOI) Equity Invested
DEBT (Annual Debt Service) (Ground Lease Payments) ROE is Often Calculated on a Before-Tax Basis, But Class Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF) Will Use After-Tax Calculation
TAXES (Tax Payment)
Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT)
© Kristen Hunter 2016
SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI) AFTER-TAX RETURN ON EXPENSES (Operating Expenses) EQUITY (ROE) = (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Year 1 CFAT Net Operating Income (NOI) Equity Invested
DEBT (Annual Debt Service) (Ground Lease Payments) $25,000 = 11.67% $300,000 Cash Flow After Financing (CFAF)
TAXES (Tax Payment) Cash Flow After Taxes (CFAT)
© Kristen Hunter 2016
SINGLE-PERIOD RETURN MEASURES
COMPARING RETURN MEASURES
ROTA ROE Unlev. BT IRR AT IRR IRR Single-Period Returns Multi-Period Returns
© Kristen Hunter 2016 CAPITALIZED VALUE
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI)
EXPENSES (Operating Expenses) (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Net Operating Income (NOI)
Net Operating Income Can Be Used to Estimate Property Value & Compare Alternative Uses
© Kristen Hunter 2016
CAPITALIZED VALUE
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
INCOME Potential Gross Income (PGI) (Vacancy & Credit Loss) Additional Income Effective Gross Income (EGI) Capitalized Value = EXPENSES (Operating Expenses)
(Real Estate Taxes) Year 1 NOI (Replacement Reserve) Market Cap Rate % Net Operating Income (NOI)
Net Operating Income Can Be Used to Estimate Property Value & Compare Alternative Uses
© Kristen Hunter 2016
CAPITALIZED VALUE
CAPITALIZATION RATES & VALUATION:
Cap Rate ê Value é Cap Rate é Value ê “Cap Rate Compression” “Cap Rate Expansion”
What Influences Cap Rates? • Investor Perceptions of Risk • Inflation Rates (Rate Increase è Cap Rate ê Value é) • Returns on Competing Investments • Market Competitiveness • Location Preferences • Property Age/Obsolescence
© Kristen Hunter 2016
CAPITALIZED VALUE
CAPITALIZATION RATES & VALUATION: CAP RATES & REAL ESTATE MARKET CYCLES
© Kristen Hunter 2016
CAPITALIZED VALUE
CAPITALIZATION RATES & VALUATION: IMPACT OF CHANGING CAP RATES ON VALUE
Net Operating Income (NOI) = $100,000
Cap Rate NOI Multiplier Value 5% = 20 x $100,000 $2,000,000 7.5% = 13.3 x $100,000 $1,333,333 10% = 10 x $100,000 $1,000,000 15% = 6.67 x $100,000 $666,667 20% = 5 x $100,000 $500,000
A Change in the Cap Rate Can Have a Big Impact on Value
© Kristen Hunter 2016
CAPITALIZED VALUE
CAPITALIZATION RATES & VALUATION: IMPACT OF CHANGING CAP RATES ON VALUE
Net Operating Income (NOI) = $100,000
Cap Rate NOI Multiplier Value 5% = 20 x $100,000 $2,000,000 7.5% = 13.3 x $100,000 $1,333,333 10% = 10 x $100,000 $1,000,000 15% = 6.67 x $100,000 $666,667 20% = 5 x $100,000 $500,000
The Cap Rate = Investor’s Perceived Risk. If the Investment is Risky, They Will Pay Less for the Same Set of Cash Flows.
© Kristen Hunter 2016
HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Capitalized Value = RESIDUAL Capitalized Value VALUE Year 1 NOI
Market Cap Rate %
© Kristen Hunter 2016 HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Capitalized Value = RESIDUAL Capitalized Value VALUE (Construction Cost) Year 1 NOI Market Cap Rate %
© Kristen Hunter 2016 HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Capitalized Value = RESIDUAL Capitalized Value VALUE (Construction Cost) Year 1 NOI Residual Land Value Market Cap Rate %
The Use that Produces the Highest Residual Land Value = Highest & Best Use
© Kristen Hunter 2016 HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Residential Office Retail
SIZE 10,000 SF 10,000 SF 10,000 SF
RENT $2.50/SF/Month $21.50/SF/Year $24.50/SF/Year
VACANCY 6.5% 10% 10%
EXP RATIO 30% of EGI 30% of EGI N/A
CAP RATE 7% 8% 9.5%
COST $200/SF $150/SF $150/SF
Calculate the Net Operating Income, Capitalized Value, and Residual Land Value for Each Use © Kristen Hunter 2016
HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Residential Office Retail
PGI $300,000 $215,000 $245,000 (Vacancy) ($19,500) ($21,500) ($24,500) EGI $280,500 $193,500 $220,500
© Kristen Hunter 2016 HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Residential Office Retail
PGI $300,000 $215,000 $245,000 (Vacancy) ($19,500) ($21,500) ($24,500) EGI $280,500 $193,500 $220,500
(Expenses) ($84,150) ($58,050) ($0) NOI $196,350 $135,450 $220,500
© Kristen Hunter 2016 HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Residential Office Retail
PGI $300,000 $215,000 $245,000 (Vacancy) ($19,500) ($21,500) ($24,500) EGI $280,500 $193,500 $220,500
(Expenses) ($84,150) ($58,050) ($0) NOI $196,350 $135,450 $220,500
VALUE $2,805,000 $1,693,125 $2,321,053
© Kristen Hunter 2016 HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Residential Office Retail
PGI $300,000 $215,000 $245,000 (Vacancy) ($19,500) ($21,500) ($24,500) EGI $280,500 $193,500 $220,500
(Expenses) ($84,150) ($58,050) ($0) NOI $196,350 $135,450 $220,500
VALUE $2,805,000 $1,693,125 $2,321,053 (Cost) ($2,000,000) ($1,500,000) ($1,500,000) LAND $805,000 $193,125 $821,053
© Kristen Hunter 2016 HIGEST & BEST USE ANALYSIS
USING THE SETUP TO COMPARE OPPORTUNITIES
Residential Office Retail
PGI $300,000 $215,000 $245,000 (Vacancy) ($19,500) ($21,500) ($24,500) EGI $280,500 $193,500 $220,500
(Expenses) ($84,150) ($58,050) ($0) NOI $196,350 $135,450 $220,500
VALUE $2,805,000 $1,693,125 $2,321,053 (Cost) ($2,000,000) ($1,500,000) ($1,500,000) LAND $805,000 $193,125 $821,053
What Use, or Uses, Would You Recommend and Why?
© Kristen Hunter 2016
VERDE LOFTS SETUP Q & A
© Kristen Hunter 2016 VERDE LOFTS SETUP Q & A
VERDE LOFTS SETUP (STABILIZED YEAR 1)
INCOME
Gross Income Market-Rate Apartments Affordable Apartments Retail Space Subtotal
(Vacancy) Residential Vacancy Retail Vacancy
Additional Income Parking Fees
Effective Gross Income
EXPENSES
(Operating Expenses) (Real Estate Taxes) (Replacement Reserve) Subtotal
NET OPERATING INCOME
(Debt Service)
CASH FLOW AFTER FINANCING
(Tax Payment)
CASH FLOW AFTER TAXES
OFF-SHEET CALCULATIONS
Tax Payment Cash Flow After Financing Replacement Reserve Amortization (Depreciation) Taxable Income Tax Payment
RETURN MEASURES & CAPITALIZED VALUE
Return on Total Assets
Return on Equity © Kristen Hunter 2016 Capitalized Value
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