AN INVESTIGATION OF THE INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG STREAMFLOW, LAKE LEVELS, CLIMATE AND LAND USE, WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO THE BATTLE RIVER BASIN, ALBERTA A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements For the Degree of Master of Science in the Department of Civil Engineering by Ross Herrington Saskatoon, Saskatchewan c 1980. R. Herrington ii The author has agreed that the Library, University of Ssskatchewan, may make this thesis freely available for inspection. Moreover, the author has agreed that permission be granted by the professor or professors who supervised the thesis work recorded herein or, in their absence, by the Head of the Department or the Dean of the College in which the thesis work was done. It is understood that due recognition will be given to the author of this thesis and to the University of Saskatchewan in any use of the material in this thesiso Copying or publication or any other use of the thesis for financial gain without approval by the University of Saskatchewan and the author's written permission is prohibited. Requests for permission to copy or to make any other use of material in this thesis in whole or in part should be addressed to: Head of the Department of Civil Engineering Uni ve:rsi ty of Saskatchewan SASKATOON, Canada. iii ABSTRACT Streamflow records exist for the Battle River near Ponoka, Alberta from 1913 to 1931 and from 1966 to the present. Analysis of these two periods has indicated that streamflow in the month of April has remained constant while mean flows in the other months have significantly decreased in the more recent period. In contrast, streamflow in the same periods at Battleford, Saskatchewan has tended to increase. This indicates that the regime of the Battle River above Ponoka has changed. From the analysis of monthly and daily precipitation recorded at Lacombe and Wetaskiwin, Alberta, it was concluded that April, May, and September flows for the Battle River near Ponoka are probably responding to precipitation characteristics. No clear relationship between precipitation and runoff is indicated for June, July, and August. From Alberta census data it has been demonstrated that the amount of deforestation in the basin upstream from Ponoka has probably had no significant effect on runoff. It has been postulated that a decrease in summer runoff may be related to higher growing season temperatures and the replacement of natural pasture by im­ proved pasture and field crops. This decrease may be related to higher transpiration rates, increased infiltration potential and increased soil moisture evaporation. Many of the lakes in Central Alberta appear to be responding to regional effects of climate and land use. Although poor correla­ tions exist between lake levels and Battle River flows, significant. correlations in mean annual lake levels occur between Gull Lake and Buffalo, Sylvan, Pigeon, and Wabamun Lakes in the 1956 to 1966 period and between Gull Lake and Sylvan Lake only in the 1967 to 1978 period. It has been postulated that the land use changes influencing streamflow also are affecting lake levels. Variations in elevation for Gull Lake (and possibly many of the other lakes in the region) do not appear to be related to artificial drainage, erosion of an outlet channel, buried valleys, bedrock fractures, or seismic exploration. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to thank several individuals and agencies for their assistance and encouragement throughout the course of this project. In particular, appreciation is expressed to Dr. W.J. Stolte, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, for his guidance and counsel~ The assistance of ~tr. J.R. Card,Branch Head, and Mr. S.J. Figliuzzi, Hydrologist, of the Hydrology Branch of Alberta Environment in providing data on streamflow, lake levels, and climate is appreciated. Financial support for this research project was provided by Alberta Environment and is gratefully acknowledged. Finally, to my wife Dale, I wish to express my thanks for her encouragement and understanding. Without her support the successful completion of this thesis would not have been possible. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT •. o. o........ o. o•.... o. • . • . • . .. • . • . • iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . o • o ••••••••••••• o ••• o ••••••••••••••• o • i v LIST OF TABLES •.•.•...•...•........•.... o ••••••• o • • • • • • vii LIST OF FIGURES ..•.....•. o ••••• o • o ••• o • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • xii 1. INTRODUCTION o ••••••• o ••• o ••• o ••••• o • o ••••••• 1 1.1 Problem Statement .......•.•.••.. o ••••••••••• 1 1.2 Study Objectives ..•.•.•.........•.•....•.... 1 1.3 Study Area Description .••.•...... o •••••••••• 2· 1.4 Basin Water Use . o. o ••• o • o ••••••••••••••• o • o • 4 2. STREAMFLOW REGIME ••• •· •••• Q ••••••• 0 •••••••••• 8 2.1 Battle River Near Ponoka, Alberta .......•... 8 2.1.1 Consistency of Record ················o··· 8 2.1.2 Mean Annual Runoff ...•..•••..•..•....•... 8 2.1.3 Mean Monthly Flows ..••................••. 10 2.2. Battle River at Battleford, Saskatchewan •... 14 2.2.1 Mean Monthly Flows . 0 • o ••••• "o ••• o ••••• o ••• 14 2.3 Summary .•... o ••• o ••••• o- ••.••••••••••••••• o ••• 20 3. LAKES IN CENTRAL ALBERTA ...•.•.............. 23 3.1 Introduction .... o • o ••••• o ••• o ............... 23 3.1.1 Wabamun Lake . .. o • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • .. • o • • 23 3.1.2 Battle Lake .......................... o ••••• 27 3.1.3 Pigeon Lake···~························ .. 27 3.1.4 Sylvan Lake ................ o ................ 28 3.1.5 Gull Lake .•. o ............... o ••••• o ••••••• o 28 3.1.6 Buffalo Lake •....•. o ••••••••• o ••••••••••• 29 3.1.7 Miquelon Lakes .....•.•••....•...•. o ••• o • o 30 3, .. 10 8 Cooking Lake ..... o ••••••••••••••••• o ••••• 30 3.1.9 Hastings Lake ....••.•......•.• 0 ••••• 0 •••• 31 3.2 Lake Level Trends •o••;o·•·····•·o·•·o······· 31 3.2.1 Moving Mean Analysis ....................... 32 3.2.2 Linear Trend Analysis •...•...•.....••••.• 34 3.2.3 Correlation Analysis ..•...•.•....•..•...• 38 3.3 Summary ... o ••••••••••• o ••••••• o • • • • • • • •••••• 43 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONCLUDED) Page 4. CLIMATIC CHANGE o. " . " . o . o.............•..... o. 44 4.1 Introduction ...... o ••••••••••••••• " • • • • • • • • • • • 44 4.2 Precipitation Regime •·•·······•·o·······•·•o• 46 4.2.1 Monthly Precipitation ····•···o·•···•••o•o• 46 4.2.2 Daily Precipitation •. o....... o... " . • • ..• . 46 4.2.3 Summary of Precipitation Changes •o•o······ 70 4.3 Temperature Regime ... 0 • o ••••••••••• o ••••• o • o • 70 5. ANALYSIS OF STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVEL CHANGES . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • . • 78 5.1 Introduction .•. ". " .•. 0 ••••••••••• o... o. o. 78 5.2 Analysis of Streamflow Changes ·····o·····o·•· 80 5.2.1 Introduction .•. 0 ••••• " • 0 ••• " ••••••• o... o. o 80 5.2.2 Precipitation-Runoff Relationships ...•.•.. 82 5o2.3 Land Use-Runoff Relationships .....•.•...•. 88 5.2.4 Summary of Streamflow Changes ···••o•o••••• 101 5.3 Analysis of Lake Changes o·o·········o········ 103 5.3.1 Introduction . 0 ••••••• o. o. " .....•.•. o.•. o • o 103 5.3.2 Climatic Effects . o.•. "... o... o............ 103 5o3o3 Activities of Man .......................... 105 5.3.4 Natural Processes ·······o·······o••·••o··· 107 5.3.5. Groundwater Geology •o•o···········o•••o··· 108 5.3.6 Summary of Lake Level Changes ··o·······o·• 110 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ············o· 112 6.1 Conclusions o•o.•o···o···················•·o·•· 112 6.1.1 Streamflow Regime ................... o······ 112 6o1.2 Lake Level Trends •o·•·········o·•········· 113 6.2 Reconunendations •. o ••••••••••••• o • • • • • • • • • • • • • 114 REFERENCES CITED . ". " .............. ". o .•.....•. 115 APPENDIX A- Moving Mean Lake Elevations •.•.• 117 APPENDIX B- Mean Annual Lake Levels '"''""''" 125 APPENDIX C - Land Use Census Data 131 APPENDIX D- Groundwater and Lake Levels ...•. 144 vii LIST OF TABLES Page lo Industrial water use in the Battle River Basin, 1972 (after PiersDn, 1976, po 7) ... o••o••oo•••o•o•o•• 5 2. Industrial water withdrawals from all sources (excluding thermal power) within the Battle River Basin (after Pierson, 1976, p. 13) .. o. o o. o . oo • • 6 3 3 3. Statistics of mean annual flows (1o m }, Battle River near Ponoka and at Battleford, 1914 to 1930 and 1967 to 1976 .. 00 •• 0. 0 ••••••••••••• o ........ o 9 4. Statistics of monthly flows (m3/s) for the Battle River near Ponoka during the 1914 to 1930 periods 0.. 0 0 ••• 0 • 0 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 11 5. Statistics of monthly flows for the Battle River near Ponoka, 1914 to 1930 versus 1967 to 1976 (5% significance level) .................... o o 13 6. March to June flows for the Battle River at Battleford and Unwin, 1967 to 1976 (m3/s) .......... •o 15 7. July to October flows for the Battle River at Battleford and Unwin, 1967 to 1976 (m3/s) ......... 16 8. Ratio of mean Battleford to mean Unwin flows, March to October, 196 7 to 1976 .... 0 • 0 •••• o........ oo . 17 9. Reconstituted flows at. Battleford (m 3; s) based on Unwin flows and a simple drainage area ratio, 1967 to 1976 ... o········o····•o•o••···········o•••o•• 18 10. Statistics of monthly flows (m3/s) for the Battle River at Battleford during the 1914 to 1930 and 1967 to 1976 periods ................................. 19 11. Statistics of monthly flows for the Battle River at Battleford, 1914 to 1930 versus 1967 to 1976 (a. = 5%) ........ 0 •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0. 0 •• 0 •• 0