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Strategic Assessment of Risk 2015

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Strategic Assessment of Risk 2015 ESSEX COUNTY FIRE & RESCUE SERVICE STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF RISK 2015 INTERGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING Fourth Edition Version 8.1 Public Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 7 AIM ...................................................................................................................................... 8 OBJECTIVES ...................................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER 1: RISK – GENERAL ...................................................................................... 10 1.1 NATIONAL RISK REGISTER OF CIVIL EMERGENCIES: 2015 EDITION ........ 10 1.2 INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING GUIDANCE .......................... 10 1.3 STRATEGIC RISKS ............................................................................................ 10 1.4 OPERATIONAL RISK GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRE & RESCUE SERVICE ........ 10 1.5. POPULATION DATA ........................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 2: BASE CASE ............................................................................................... 14 2.1 GENERAL STATISTICS ...................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER 3: PEOPLE - DEMOGRAPHY ......................................................................... 25 3.1 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 25 3.2 COUNTY PROFILE ............................................................................................. 25 3.3 DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES – HOMES & SPACES .................................... 25 3.4 POPULATION AGEING ...................................................................................... 26 3.5 VULNERABLE ADULTS ...................................................................................... 29 3.6 THE STRUCTURE OF ESSEX COMMUNITIES BY OUTPUT AREA CLASSIFICATION (OAC) .................................................................................................. 30 3.7 ETHNICITY AND DIVERSITY ............................................................................. 31 3.8 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................... 36 3.9 COMMENTARY ................................................................................................... 37 3.10 LIKELIHOOD ....................................................................................................... 38 3.11 IMPACT ............................................................................................................... 38 CHAPTER 4: LAND, SEA & AIR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE ............................. 40 4.1 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 40 4.2 MAJOR ROADS .................................................................................................. 41 4.3 COMMUTING BEHAVIOURS ............................................................................. 42 4.4 ROAD TRAFFIC COLLISIONS IN ESSEX .......................................................... 43 4.5 PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS ...................................................................... 47 4.6 RAIL .................................................................................................................... 47 4.7 PORTS & MARITIME .......................................................................................... 51 4.8 AIR ...................................................................................................................... 52 4.9 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................... 53 4.10 LIKELIHOOD ....................................................................................................... 53 4.11 IMPACT ............................................................................................................... 54 CHAPTER 5: INDUSTRIAL, UTILITY AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE ....................... 60 5.1 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 60 5.2 UTILITIES ........................................................................................................... 61 5.3 OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE .............................................................................. 61 5.4 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................... 62 5.5 LIKELIHOOD ....................................................................................................... 62 5.6 IMPACT ............................................................................................................... 63 CHAPTER 6: OUR ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................. 66 6.1 THE ESSEX COASTLINE AND RIVER SYSTEM ............................................... 66 6.2 WATER MANAGEMENT IN ESSEX – STORAGE & DISTRIBUTION ................ 67 6.3 FLOOD TYPES ................................................................................................... 68 6.4 ESSEX FLOOD BOARD ..................................................................................... 68 6.5 OPERATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT – GENERAL ..................................... 69 2 6.6 WATER RESCUE & FLOODING ......................................................................... 69 6.7 CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................. 70 6.10 LANDFILL SITES ................................................................................................ 70 6.11 TIMBER STORAGE ............................................................................................ 70 6.12 ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION ........................................................................ 70 6.13 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................... 71 6.14 LIKELIHOOD ....................................................................................................... 71 6.15 IMPACT ............................................................................................................... 71 CHAPTER 7: HUMAN & ANIMAL HEALTH ..................................................................... 80 7.1 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 80 7.2 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................... 80 7.5 LIKELIHOOD ....................................................................................................... 80 7.6 IMPACT – OPERATIONS AND STAFF ABSENCE ............................................. 80 CHAPTER 8: TERRORISM ............................................................................................... 83 8.1 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 83 8.2 THREAT LEVELS ................................................................................................ 83 8.3 CONTEST – COUNTER TERRORISM STRATEGY ........................................... 83 8.4 SERVICE RESOURCES ..................................................................................... 83 8.5 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................... 84 8.6 LIKELIHOOD ....................................................................................................... 84 8.7 IMPACT ............................................................................................................... 84 CHAPTER 9: ECONOMY ................................................................................................. 86 9.1 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................... 86 9.2 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................... 86 9.3 LIKELIHOOD ....................................................................................................... 86 9.4 IMPACT ............................................................................................................... 87 CHAPTER 10: INTEROPERABILITY................................................................................ 88 10.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... 88 10.2 NATIONAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................. 88 10.3 NATIONAL & REGIONAL RESPONSE ............................................................... 89 10.4 JOINT EMERGENCY SERVICES INTEROPERABILITY PROGRAMME (JESIP) 89 10.5 CROSS BORDER ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................ 89 10.6 LEVELS OF COMMAND ..................................................................................... 89 10.7 ESSEX RESILIENCE FORUM ............................................................................ 90 10.8 NEW DIMENSIONS ...........................................................................................
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