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Emerging Powers: India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) and the Future of South-South Cooperation

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Emerging Powers: India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) and the Future of South-South Cooperation AUGUST 2009 SPECIAL REPORT EMERGING POWERS: INDIA, BRAZIL AND SOUTH AFRICA (IBSA) AND THE FUTURE OF SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION INTRODUCTION Paulo Sotero, Director Brazil Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center India, Brazil, and South Africa (IBSA) are transcending geographical, historical, and regional differences in order to promote their individual and collective interests at a time when the current economic hardship and declining U.S. hegemony mean greater opportunities for emerging countries in the global South. Since its inception at the margins of the expanded G-8 Summit held in Evian, France, in 2003, the group, officially established in 2004 as the IBSA Dialogue Forum, has held three Summits – in Brasília in 2006, in Pretoria in 2007, and in New Delhi in 2008. The three foreign ministers have met at least once a year and a num- ber of trilateral official consultations have taken place at lower levels. The IBSA Forum has also facilitated interaction amongst Indian, South African and Brazilian academics, business leaders, and other members of civil society. Despite IBSA’s contributions to the future of multilateralism, it continues to face profound challenges in distinguishing itself from other similar groupings. The proliferation of regional organizations in the post-cold war era begs the question: “What makes IBSA unique, what has it achieved in its first five years of existence, and what is its future?” On May 22, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars’ Brazil Institute, Africa Program, and Asia Program jointly welcomed politicians and scholars from the IBSA countries to discuss these questions and the implications of IBSA coop- eration for its member countries and the greater developing world. The informal nature of the IBSA dialogue forum and the fact that it lacks a permanent secretariat mean many unprecedented factors are at work in encouraging trilateral coopera- tion among these distant regional powers. The panelists pointed to similarities between the countries as providing explanations for IBSA’s existence and agenda. India, South Africa, Emerging Powers: India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) and the Future of South-South Cooperation SPECIAL REPORT and Brazil are all democratic states that exert sig- standing interests of the developed world - by nificant regional influence, yet all three face inter- no means an easy task -, then it is highly prob- nal social challenges typical of developing nations. able that the inter-regional IBSA alliance will in Each has demonstrated its capacity to act beyond turn become stronger and better able to achieve its its national and regional interests and all three dis- goals. In the meantime, IBSA, as an alliance of three play a growing willingness to assert their presence highly diverse democratic societies, might best be and increase their participation in global affairs. viewed as a laboratory for exploring the future of Beyond the similarities between member coun- democracy and international cooperation in the tries, the grouping is in many ways a product of Global South. historical circumstance. An inter-regional alliance On the key issue of trade, the group has evolved between Brazil, India, and South Africa would have at a time when trading of goods and services been neither relevant nor possible ten years ago between the three countries was rapidly expand- when Brazil was perceived as an economic disas- ing. “There has been a quantitative leap in intra- ter dealing with rampant inflation and the pains IBSA trade, which is particularly dramatic between of a recent democratic transition, South Africa was India and Brazil and India and South Africa,” coming out of apartheid, and India was address- the United Nations Conference on Trade and ing regional nuclear threats. Today, regional activi- Development (UNCTAD) reported in a 2006 ties are necessary but not sufficient to advance a paper titled “IBSA: An emerging trinity in the new national agenda. A trans-regional grouping such as geography of international trade.” The UNCTAD IBSA allows for sharing of best practices between analysis concluded that the “growing dynamo the three member countries and strengthens the role [of India, South Africa and Brazil coopera- voice of the developing world as a whole. tion] in intra-regional and inter-regional South- IBSA fashioned a three-pillar approach to South trade in general augurs well for IBSA trade advance the agendas of its member countries and and economic cooperation and for each country the larger developing world. The first component using the other partner as a gateway for intensify- of IBSA’s three-pillar approach is providing a forum ing inter-continental trade and investment links.” for consultation and coordination on significant Indeed, from a mere $200 million in 1998 and political issues, such as the reform of the United $800 in 2002, Indo-Brazil trade reached $2.5 Nations and its Security Council, and negotiations billion in 2005 and $3.1 in 2007. India-South at the World Trade Organization. The second pil- Africa trade similarly expanded to $4 billion in lar fosters trilateral cooperation on particular areas 2005 before loosing ground and receding to $2.3 and projects through sixteen working groups set in 2007. South Africa-Brazil trade has remained up for the common benefit of the three countries. unchanged at around $1.5 billion from 2004 to The final pillar broadens IBSA’s scope to the larger 2007. These pre-global crisis data show, however, developing world through the IBSA facility fund, that IBSA had yet to achieve the $10 billion tar- established in 2004. The fund, managed by the get of intra-trade it set for its three members. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP), UNCTAD paper suggested that “the numbers do allows the IBSA countries to initiate and finance not fully reflect trade in service or the quantum poverty reduction projects in other developing of trade between them through third countries, countries nor do they factor in the major FDI proposals If IBSA countries succeed in asserting more and joint ventures on the anvil or even in some regional power in a way that appeals to longer- cases the services trade that is taking place.” 2 SPECIAL REPORT On the more complex issues of international and current economics involves a more generaliz- trade policy, the IBSA Dialogue Forum has yet ing and connecting process. What the experiences to bring its members’ positions closer together. of the IBSA countries offer is a testament to the Brazilian scholars Taiane Campos and Luciana Las interplay between economic, social and political Casas see this as an elusive proposition. “The trade forces, as all three countries are increasingly inte- policies of Brazil, India and South Africa have sig- grated into the global community while retaining nificant historical similarities: these countries are original WTO members; they adopted import- substitution industrialization; promoted neo-liberal IBSA, AS AN ALLIANCE OF reforms; have been playing important roles in their regional contexts; and, more recently, they have THREE HIGHLY DIVERSE also formed alliances and coalitions (IBSA, G20) in order to increase their capacity to influence the DEMOCRATIC SOCIETIES, trade regime,” they wrote in a paper presented ear- lier this year in an international conference. MIGHT BEST BE VIEWED “At the same time, they are intensifying bilat- eral and regional ties, which are different in scope AS A LABORATORY and degrees of institutionalization. The result is that, despite having similar roles which are derived from FOR EXPLORING THE their status as middle powers, these three countries have developed different strategies concerning their FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY trade policy.” Differences between Brazil and India regarding trade in agriculture remain a factor in the AND INTERNATIONAL so far unsuccessful negotiations of the Doha Round at the WTO. COOpeRATION IN THE The conflicting national and global interests of each IBSA country affect not just international GLOBAL SOUTH trade policy; it also affects the way the three coun- tries relate to other nations although similar his- torical and geographical considerations, and their much of their singularly distinct national identities. common status as developing countries lead the Developed and developing countries alike would be IBSA countries to converge on many foreign policy well served to examine why democracy has taken issues, each country nonetheless maintains its own root in such diverse societies as those comprising approach to the international community. India, IBSA, and how the IBSA countries, collectively and for instance, has been more willing than Brazil to individually, set examples for other democratizing engage with the United States in a substantive stra- countries throughout the world. tegic partnership. This report is the product of a collective effort The three countries’ national experiences in of three programs of the Wilson Center. Howard recent decades also demonstrate that there is no Wolpe, the director of the Africa Program at the time “cookie-cutter” approach to democracy. It is a of the conference, moderated its first panel. He was localizing force that evokes and plays to particu- a key supporter of the project alongside the Africa lar identities. At the same time, market expansion Program Consulting Manager Steven McDonald. 3 Emerging Powers: India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) and the Future of South-South Cooperation SPECIAL REPORT Africa Program Associate Mame-Khady Diouf, and countries.
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