Report and up 47-43 Among "Most Likely" Voters

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Report and up 47-43 Among Thursday, Nov. 3, 1994 EXCLUSIVE V lume 1, Number 13 Page 1of8 The economy booms: why aren't Democrats The reaping this harvest? FORT WAYNE - If there has been one phrase that has come up time and again in both the Hoosier press and political campaigns, Howey it is Tip O'Neill's axiom: "All politics is local." Another time-honored political rule is that peopl~ "vote their pocketbook. a But in this volatile electoral climate, these phrases ring hol­ Political low. Take the 4th CD, where three-term Democrat incumbent Jill Long is fighting for survival against Republican challenger Mark Souder. The last poll (WPTA-TV) had the race knotted at 44-44 percent; a GOP poll (10-27, 4.5 +/-)had Souder up 45-44 in a head-to-head, Report and up 47-43 among "most likely" voters. Using conventional logic, Long should be comfortably ahead. The weekly briefing Why? Because in Northeast Indiana, factories and shops are on Indiana politics gorged with work and orders. Outside of inner city Fort Wayne, th re is virtually no unemployment. Help-wanted ads in Fort Wayne news­ The Howey Political Report is papers are up 100 percent over 1984. Electrical consumption in Allen published by The Newsletter Center, County was at 132 million kilowatt hours through Oct. 26 compared to a subsidiary of Nixon Newspapers Inc. 114 million kilowatt hours for all of 1993. There has been a 20-percent Brian A& Howey, editor increase in outbound freight at Fort Wayne International Airport. 1707 N. Anthony Blvd. Commercial and residential building is hustling at a record pace with Fort Wayne, IN 46805 backlogs in steel and concrete orders. Ryder Corp. noted that Fort 219-420-0909 Wayne is the eighth most popular moving destination in the United 219-426-0909 States for cities between 100,000 and 300,000 population. In 1993, there were 51 new projects at $130 million in the Fax.:219-420-0909 region, compared to $550 million on 16 projects so far this year. CompuServe: 75141,51 Going into the year, there was foreboding that things wouldn't be so The Howey Political Report is an independent, rosy in this rolling land dotted with lakes. A labor dispute threatened non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political to close the 2,000-employee Uniroyal-Goodrich plant in Woodburn, process in Indiana. It neither endorses candidates which would have created a significant economic disruption for two or nor advocates positions ofpublic policy. three years. The region's largest employer, Lincoln National Corp. in Fort Wayne, was girding for an uncertain future in the face of copyright, The Howey Political Report, 1994 Clintonian health care reform. On Feb. 14, the news began to shift Continued on page 4 Inside Features: Quote Of The Week: • Horse Race: top state, federal races, page 2 & 3 ''The president had two • GOP may take Indiana House, page 3 good weeks in foreign policy. • 4th CD: Souder puts Mom on air, page 5 That doesn't make up for two bad years ... " • 2nd CD: Defining moment on pledge, page 5 - U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich • 8th CD: Gore to stump for McCloskey, page 5 CNN's "Inside Politics" • Musings: Ollie North victory and Quayle, page 7 • Humor Mill: Wendell & Ambrose, page 8 Page2 The Howey Plilitica! il'i'.e,pl"rt Nov. 3~ 1994 1 GOP has chan (:e 1 to control lndnana1 -=:-!i~t I, I; (',,.. <l'I'i'lrilii;lli•mm ~HL~ ~1 ; , House, but scr~nario QFIFICE :Err.ltTUS iCOMMl;J'~JS may be different SECRETARY OF SlAllE Leaning R Gilroy has mn a terrib~e TV cam- INDIANAPOUS - To your Jeffers (D) paign. Sh13i's real lucky Jeffers • right is an expanded v13rsk>n of v. doesn't hciv11:1 money. J19ffif,ers get- Gilroy (R) HPR's "Horse Race" that includes ting greait 'Im a press. Should go the six House seats Hepulblicans to Gilroy, l:iul ___ targeted, plus the two Muncie sur- prise seats the GOP won in '92. TREASUFtER: "l'bss IUp This is Df•mocrats best chance Going strictly by this list, Humphreys (D) to get a Stait•3house o1fl'ii::e. then one can make the~ case that v. HumphreJ1' s TV great. Elrinkman Brinkman (R) while the Democrats will lose their looking int11J lens doesn't work. 55-45 seat advantag1f), they wm still retain control of t l•~ House. 74t&11 INDIJllNA HOUSIE l®arrning D MKP pho,to1:id at a 'Wanick HPR believes Repub1 icans have Phillips (D) County slafl party in St.arsug- a good chance of picl(illg 1LJp tvvo v. gests he':; safe. Also, why dlidn't of the six seats they'vei targeted, Lambert (R) GOP fund Lambert? ·r1i,ey know. but stand a good chance of losing one of the Muncie seats and pos- sibly Rep. Dean Youn~1's seat to 67TH llNDl1U1l!A HOUSE LH11r1ting D Goble should stave o:fif !Duncan Dick Persinge!I" in Blackford Goble (D) to get ye~ a111 1other tough victory County. The caveat fn,ere is thell'e v. in this Dem district. Bua if Dems is little independent i: o lling data in Duncan (R) stay home., .. those legislative races,, However (and this is a 35TH INDl,LNIA HOUSE L11::Jmfing R Polling sn.ig1i1ests Muns1:>n will mighty big "however"'ll, HPR fol- Eddy (D) improve on his 185-v,crte victory lows a line Jack Col1i~m11 o·f the v. in '92. South Bend Tribune r~i>poused at Munson (R) the Indiana Chamber of Commerce's "Let's Tulk P1:>litics" 59TH INDIANJ' HOU~PE L®anong D Hayes is p1J1mping. Democrats forum last month: "If 'l's a big Hayes(D) feeling b1~~11:fr about this 'un. Republican year nationally, it will v. Bigley (R) be an even bigger GOP y 1ear in Indiana." 65TH INIDIA~lil\ HOW~E TICl•SS Up Both De!m:::. and Repubs think The idiotic "lirnos-for-dia- Henderson (ID') they can itake this seal. No, pers" campaign push the v. data, so HFlR says toss up. Republ~an House Caucus opened Steele (R) two weeks ago (and can't back up with fact to this da~ 1 ·) may have 24TH iNDIANA H01ILmlE LiEaning R Republic<m:s should pk:lk up this damaged some of th1~ir targeted Frantz (D) seat vac:at1e1d by Demo11crat John chances. v. Davis. But HPR senses that if McClain (R) the Republican "wav1?l' material- 52ND INDIA~JA HOUSE leaning R Dems thi111k :hey have a chance izes in Indiana, seve ·.:,I StQJrtz (D) Democratic House s 13ats no one v, to save Sturtz, but Lugar and is really paying mud attention to Lecount (R) Souder ~1ijv131 LeCoum an edge. might get swept away. That tends to happen in big watG~rshed years ~4TH ~NDl~1rJ~ HOU~i>IE l1f~;mln~ D This app E~e1 rs to be the best such as 1986, 1980 and W74. 1 Elliott (D) chance kH Dems to n3il~laim seat Where might the v. they sho.ddl11't have lo:;t in '92. Republicans gain fo1U1r more Van L,: ~·ir (R) seats? 691H INIDIA~&J"1 HOUi~E lea1111fi111g D lytie shc 1uld win, but i~' Dems We've been 1,111atclhing ~he lyUe(D) stay home, Cook looks; lbet1ter. 80th District where Slate Rep. • v. C ok(R) C ntinu d cun pag 3 --- page3 The Howey PolWcal Report Nov. 3, 1994 The Horse Race L gislature, from page 2 Ben GiaQuinta, D-Fort Wayne, 2NDCD STATUS COMMENTS has a r match against R publican John Becker. Hogsett (D) Toss Up Frabrizio-Mclaughlin's latest poll gives GiaQuinta should prevail, but v. Mcintosh 45.7-37.3 lead, 17 undecided. there are a couple of elements Mcintosh (R) Mason-Dixon poll (10/19-21, 405 sam­ that make this race worth keep­ ple) gives Hogsett 43-35 percent lead. ing in your periphery: GiaQuinta's HPR senses wild finish. Call it in the air. son, Mark, has been an attorney for the controversial Adams Center Landfill; plus the resur­ 4THCD Newt in Fort Wayne Election Eve. gence of the Allen County Long (D) Toss Up Campaign in gutter with Long calling Republican organization. v. Souder "tax evader." Souder puts Mom If minority voters stay Soud r (R) on air. GOP poll (10/28, 4.5 +/-)has home on Election Day, Souder up 45-44 in head-to-head; 47- Republican Irene Heffley might 44 among likelies. 5THCD give State Rep. Paul Cantwell, D­ lndianapolis, a run in the 97th Beatty (D) SAFE R Buyer releases Hill Research Poll District. Same for State Rep. v. (10119-20, 300 sample, 4.5 +/-)show­ John Day, who is facing Buy r(R) ing Buyer with a 60-24 lead over Republican Martha Womacks in Beatty. Half hour debate (how?) in the 1OOth District. Lafayette Tuesday mattered little. Another race to watch 7THCD might be Republican Stevan Harmless (D) Safe R This is the other CD that just never Speheger's challenge to State v. materialized into a race. But there's Rep. Sheila Klinker, D-Lafayett . Myers (R) ominous news for Dams. The 7th CD This is a race the Tippecanoe suggests voter anger isn't geared County Christian Coalition has toward incumbents, but Dem incumbs. targeted. 8THCD HPR believes House McCloskey (D) Toss Up Fabrizio-Mclaughlin (10/29, 300 sam­ Speaker Michael K. Phillips and ple, 5.5 +/-)gives Hostettler a 46.4-42.3 v. Senate President Pro Tern H stettl r (R) percent lead.
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