V15, N35 Wednesday, May 19, 2010 SouderXs stunning exit is more upheaval Half of Indiana’s U.S. Rep. Mark Souder’s affair with part-time staffer Tracy Jack- CD delegation son led to his stunning exit. (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette photo by could change in ‘10 Frank Gray) By BRIAN A. HOWEY, INDIANAPOLIS - On the brink of another “tsunami” election this November, the last of the 1994 “wave” class - U.S. Rep. Mark Souder - ignomini- ously resigned on Tuesday, ad- mitting he had an extra-marital affair with a staffer. Republican sources tell HPI that an in- cident report by the Indiana Hostettler was defeated by 22 percent in 2006 by Democrat Department of Natural Resources naming Souder may have Brad Ellsworth at the height of the dissatisfaction over the ignited what will likely be a bizarre chain of events, though U.S. war in Iraq. And now there is Souder’s stunning resig- the DNR denies such a report exists. nation - the third such event this year that has rocked the ! "#$%&'!()*!*(&+,!-.,#!#/[1&!-.!2#3&45&'!6778! Indiana congressional delegation. as part of the Gingrich Revolution. He defeated U.S. Rep. “I am so ashamed to have hurt those I love,” a Jill Long on the same night that Republican John Hostet- tearful Souder said at a press conference in Fort Wayne “I tler upset U.S. Rep. Frank McCloskey. And in the open seat am so sorry to have let so many friends down, people who vacated by U.S. Rep. Phil Sharp, David McIntosh completed have fought so hard for me.” the GOP’s sweep of three contested Democratic seats by In late April, an angst-ridden Souder told Howey defeating Secretary of State Joe Hogsett. Politics Indiana that he was concerned about his own McIntosh left Congress after six years, making an unsuccessful challenge to Gov. Frank O’Bannon in 2000. Continued on page 3 Will Daniels play politics? By CHRIS SAUTTER WASHINGTON - Gov. Mitch Daniels is considering delaying until November an election in Indiana’s 3rd Con- gressional District to replace Mark Souder, who is resigning from Congress after acknowledging he was having an affair UThis is complicated and un- with a staff member. Daniels and many Republicans want to avoid a low turnout special elec- precedented. We want to make tion that would give Democrats a better chance of winning the district. sure we understand the laws By scheduling the special and !"#$%&'()$a%)+,V general elections on the same day, Daniels can claim he is saving tax- ! G" Su Dsw s 'v CD payers money while giving Republi- wus wwu cans their best chance at holding the HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Wednesday, May 19, 2010 Howey Politics Indiana is a non-partisan newsletter based in Indianapolis and published on the campus of Franklin College. It was founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. Brian A. Howey, Publisher Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Jack E. Howey, editor Beverly K. Phillips, associate editor seat. hold the contest in November, wait- Indiana law gives the gover- -.A!4#'&!,B).![3&!4#.,B*!,#!B#C%!)! Subscriptions nor considerable leeway as to when special election would undoubtedly $350 annually HPI Weekly to call a special election. Tuesday, generate criticism for leaving district after Souder announced his resigna- voters unnecessarily unrepresented $550 annually HPI Weekly and tion, Daniels publicly claimed that the and further put on the defensive a HPI Daily Wire. matter “is complicated and unprec- party already having to explain the ac- !Call 317.627.6746 edented,” although a special elec- tions of the disgraced Souder. tion was held in virtually the same In any event, Republicans congressional district — then the 4th believe they need as much distance Contact HPI — in 1989 after incumbent Dan Coats as possible from the Souder scandal Howey Politics Indiana resigned to accept an appointment to prevent a Democratic upset. They 6255 N. Evanston Ave. to the U.S. Senate from retiring Gov. )'&!)C*#!1#.[%&.,!,B&!.),-#.)C!1C-4),&! Indianapolis, IN 46220 Bob Orr. Daniels himself scheduled a and voter turnout in November will www.howeypolitics.com special election in the 7th district just put them in a much stronger position two years ago, in March 2008, follow- to hold the seat. Further, state and [email protected] ing the death of Congresswoman Julia national Democrats are much more !Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 Carson. likely to target the seat for a special !Washington: 703.248.0909 The only conceivable com- election held over the summer. There !9$*-.&**!:/[1&;!<6=>?@=>?=8? plication is political. How do Repub- are too many seats in jeopardy for licans avoid an upset like the stun- them to invest resources in the race ning loss they experienced in 1989 in November—unless it is to protect 2010, Howey Politics Indiana. to replace Coats? Democrat Jill Long a Democratic incumbent elected in a All rights reserved. Photocopy- embarrassed Republicans when she special election just weeks before. ing, Internet forwarding, fax- won the special election for the seat Some have said the solidly ing or reproducing in any form, that had once been held by then-Vice Republican district is next to impos- whole or part, is a violation of President Dan Quayle. After she won, sible for a Democrat to win under any Republican National Chairman Lee circumstances, much less in a year federal law without permission Atwater admitted to The New York that is likely to favor the GOP. But from the publisher. ! Times he was “ashamed we lost.” Democrat Jill Long’s upset victory in While Daniels would prefer to the 1989 special election — on the HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Wednesday, May 19, 2010 heels of the Bush/Quayle victory nationally just a few short personal story and the campaign experience to be every bit months before -- is proof enough that a Democrat can win as good a candidate as Jill Long was in 1989. in an open seat race. Whomever Republicans choose, there will be disap- Long won the 1989 race due to a combination of pointment within their ranks. State Sen. Marlin Stutzman, factors, some of which might be present again this year. who ran second to Dan Coats with 29 percent in the U.S. First, Long began the race with strong name recognition Senate primary, would begin the race with enhanced name and a campaign that was already up-and-running. She recognition and fresh from his strong showing just weeks had been the Democratic nominee in the 1988 against Dan ago. Coats and she was the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate State Rep. Randy Borror, said to be one of Mitch in Indiana in 1986. The lame duck Orr scheduled the 1989 Daniels’ favorite legislators, announced he will run. But special election for March 28 — more than three months af- *,),&!C&A-*C),#'*!/'&H$&.,CI!B)3&!%-/[1$C,I!4)G-.A!,B&!J$4+! ter Coats’ resignation — in an attempt to give Republicans to congressional campaigns. They rarely have the experi- time to erase Long’s organizational advantage. But, as it ence or discipline to raise the kind of money or engage in turned out, it still wasn’t time enough. the back-and-forth that is routine in congressional races. Secondly, Republicans failed to nominate their There is simply not enough time in a short special election strongest candidate, Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke. campaign for most inexperienced candidates to learn the Helmke likely would have won the 1989 race against Long. ropes. But he had only been elected mayor in 1987 and decided Car dealer Bob Thomas, who garnered 34 percent he owed Fort Wayne voters at least one full term as mayor. against Souder in the primary, believes he has earned it. Instead, Republicans nominated a Helmke aide, Dan Heath. 9$,!+'&1-.1,!#/[1-)C*!(-CC!*&C&1,!,B&!.#4-.&&!-.!)!+'#1&**! Heath was not only lacking in name recognition, but he that would seem to preclude outsiders like Thomas who needed to create a congressional campaign from scratch in doesn’t live in the district, or Paul Helmke and former a race that was a three-month sprint. 2nd district Congressman Chris Chocola who now work in Finally, Long ran a better, more aggressive cam- Washington, DC. Coincidentally, it is also the same process paign. Long forced Heath to defend unpopular taxes im- national Republicans lambasted after Democrats won a posed by Helmke and the Orr administration for whom he special election last year in New York ‘s 23rd congressional had previously worked. Helmke was a natural politician and district. 1#$C%!B)3&!5&,,&'!%&\&1,&%!E#.AR*!),,)1G*>!9$,!,B&!%#$'! Democrats have a reasonable shot to win a 3rd looking Heath was no match for the more politically agile District special election if it is held any time except Nov. 2. Long. Long came across as the girl-next-door to Heath the It remains to be seen whether Governor Daniels will do the professional political operator. And, her campaign was more right thing by 3rd district voters rather than play politics to energized and better able to turn out a greater percentage protect a Republican seat. ! of Democrats in a low turnout election. Like Long in 1989, Democrat Tom Hayhurst— who won the May 4 Democratic primary —starts out with Chris Sautter along with David Axelrod served as Jill district-wide name recognition. Hayhurst ran a surprisingly Long’s media consultants in the 1989 special elec- strong race against Souder in 2006 and his 2010 campaign tion for Indiana’s 4th Congressional seat.