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Revisiting the Powers of the Rotating Presidency of the Council of the Eu

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Revisiting the Powers of the Rotating Presidency of the Council of the Eu UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI GENOVA UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI PAVIA PhD PROGRAMME POLITICAL STUDIES – 31st cohort DOCTORAL THESIS MANY POLICIES, LITTLE TIME: REVISITING THE POWERS OF THE ROTATING PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL OF THE EU SPS/04, SPS/01, SPS/11 PhD CANDIDATE AUSTĖ VAZNONYTĖ SUPERVISOR PROF. FABIO FRANCHINO PhD DIRECTOR PROF. MATTEO JESSOULA ACADEMIC YEAR 2017/2018 The PhD programme Political Studies (POLS) (31st cohort) stems from the collaboration of three Universities, namely Università degli Studi di Genova, Università degli Studi di Milano, Università degli Studi di Pavia. The University of Milan serves as the administrative headquarters and provides the facilities for most teaching activities. Abstract The rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union, once a key actor in the European decision-making process, was substantially weakened after the Treaty of Lisbon. Nonetheless, it maintains important competences, characterising the Presidency’s stance in the Council of the EU. Against this background, while focusing on one of the main responsibilities granted to the rotating chair – agenda control of the Council – this dissertation evaluates the extent to which the rotating Presidency is able to leave an imprint on the institution’s agenda, as well as the legislative outputs of the EU. In doing so, the research applies a widespread methodological approach, ranging from statistical analyses, quantitative text-analyses to qualitative comparative case studies. Throughout its four chapters, this dissertation addresses the key institutional assets possessed by the rotating Presidency: agenda-setting, agenda-structuring and agenda-exclusion powers, as presented by Tallberg (2003). Taking into consideration the lack of longitudinal analyses of rotating Presidency agendas, especially after the Treaty of Lisbon, this dissertation provides several contributions. First, it presents a novel, hand-coded dataset of 40 rotating Presidency programmes in 1997-2017. Throughout the dissertation, this dataset is employed as a proxy of their manifested agendas. By measuring issue salience across different rotating Presidency programmes, this research reveals attention shifts across different policies, and examines the main determinants (both at the national and supranational levels) influencing such punctuations. Furthermore, in order to measure the extent to which introducing issues on the agenda or changing their prioritisation can actually influence the legislative outputs, Chapter III explores the legislation adopted throughout the 20 years period under study. By employing a novel text analysis approach – a dynamic topic model – the study looks at the legislative outputs from a punctuated equilibrium perspective. In this regard, the research paves the way for future analyses of the EU legislation, especially aiming to establish a link between the input and output EU agendas, beyond the analysis of the Council Presidency. Finally, Chapter IV deals with often neglected negative face of power, i.e. agenda-exclusion. The chapter provides a step-by-step analysis of the legislative process to detect strategic delays and explores possible strategic explanations for such rotating Presidency behaviour in the post-Lisbon period. Overall, the dissertation shows that, despite the Treaty of Lisbon, the rotating Council Presidency has retained a degree of influence. This is expressed both in agenda management powers and chair’s leverage on the legislative outputs. Hereby, this thesis opens up trajectories for new research in the field of the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU. "i Acknowledgements This PhD marks one of the most memorable and enriching periods in my career, embodying the thematic project I had in mind for many years. Therefore, I would like to express my gratitude to everyone, who surrounded and supported me throughout these three years. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Fabio Franchino, whose invaluable insights and advice guided me both through the complex EU governance mechanism and the academic pathways. His positive attitude and support allowed me to overcome the challenges posed by this PhD, and to develop this research with a broader perspective in mind. My gratitude also goes to Dr. James P. Cross at University College Dublin for his kind collaboration and patience when introducing me to the peculiarities of Python and quantitative text analysis. These months in Dublin have not only resulted in a full chapter of my thesis, but also provided me with new skills, which I am eager to develop and apply in the future research. I would also like to thank Prof. Bernard Steunenberg, who welcomed me at the Institute of Public Administration at Leiden University. This academic visit during the final months of my PhD considerably contributed to concluding the last chapter, on which I got many helpful suggestions from Prof. Steunenberg, Dr. Rik de Ruiter and my colleagues at the Institute of Public Administration. Furthermore, thanks to advice received from Dr. Dimiter Toshkov, I had a chance to improve my former chapters of this dissertation. I am also grateful to Prof. Nicolò Conti and Dr. Marcello Carammia for their constructive comments and insightful suggestions as external reviewers at the final stage of my work. Certainly, this whole PhD would not have been the same without my great colleagues in Milan, with whom we shared not only office(s), but also (academic) life experiences. I am also grateful to all colleagues whom I met at UCD and Leiden University - both for their warm welcome in- and outside university, as well as relevant feedback on my research. And, finally, I want to thank Francesco for his remarkable contribution to the completion of this dissertation. His constructive critique, friendly advice, encouragement and relentless support allowed me to make the best out of this PhD experience. "ii Table of Contents Introduction 1 1. The rotating Presidency in the state of the art 4 1.1. Developments of the rotating chair of the Council 5 1.2. Roles and functions of the Presidency in the pre-Lisbon period 6 1.3. Roles and functions of the Presidency in the post-Lisbon period 8 1.4. Institutional environment of the rotating Presidency 9 1.5. Performance evaluation of the rotating chair 11 2. Remaining puzzles addressed in this volume 13 3. Outline of the dissertation 15 Chapter I. Rotating Council Presidencies and issue salience: a glimpse into the 20 years perspective 18 Introduction 18 1. Theoretical framework 19 1.1. Agenda-setting as a set of institutional rules and powers 20 1.2. Punctuated equilibrium as a leading theory in agenda studies 21 1.3. Causes of policy punctuations within and across the agendas 22 1.3.1. Political actors 22 1.3.2. New issues, issue attributes and venue-shopping 23 1.3.3. Institutional changes 25 1.3.4. Exogenous factors and unexpected events 26 1.4. Agenda-setting within the EU 26 1.4.1. Agenda-setting as the EU integration process 27 1.4.2. The EU as a policy venue 28 1.5. Rotating Presidency as an agenda-setter 29 1.5.1. Strategies for agenda influence 31 1.5.2. Institutional rules 32 2. Problem analysis 34 2.1. Research on agenda management in the pre-Lisbon period 34 2.2. Research on agenda management in the post-Lisbon period 36 2.3. Remaining puzzles 37 3. Issue salience in the rotating Presidency programmes 39 3.1. Measurement of the Presidency issue salience 40 3.2. Data selection 41 "iii 3.3. Data collection and analysis 42 3.3.1. Hand-coding of Presidency programmes 43 3.4. Indicators presenting variation in issue salience 46 4. Summary statistics 47 4.1. Relative changes in issue salience across rotating Presidencies 49 4.2. Instability and entropy of the Presidency agendas 54 5. A comparative perspective across EU policy agendas 56 Conclusion 57 Chapter II. What influences the rotating Presidency agenda? A quantitative analysis of national and supranational factors 59 Introduction 59 1. Theoretical framework 60 1.1. National factors of influence 63 1.2. Supranational factors of influence 69 2. Methodology 72 3. Analysis of the main factors influencing Presidency agendas 74 3.1. National factors 75 3.2. Supranational influence 81 Conclusion 85 Chapter III. From agenda inputs to legislative outputs: where does the Presidency of the Council of the EU stand? 89 Introduction 89 1. Theoretical framework 91 1.1. Application of the punctuated equilibrium theory to the EU legislation 92 1.2. Influence of the rotating Presidency on the legislative outputs 98 2. Methodology 101 2.1. Automated text analysis and alternative methods 101 2.2. Dynamic topic model 102 2.3. Application of the dynamic topic model to the study of legislative acts 103 3. Dynamic topic model results 105 3.1. Dynamic topics from a punctuated equilibrium perspective 107 3.2. Institutional changes as the main drivers for punctuations in EU legislation 111 3.3. Rotating Council Presidency as an influencer of legislative punctuations 116 3.3.1. Fisheries policy 117 3.3.2. Food safety policy 119 "iv 4. Presidency achievements during the term: from agenda to the legislative outputs 121 4.1. Summary of the legislation agreed by rotating Presidencies 122 4.2. Influence of the rotating chair in respect to decision-making rules 123 4.2.1. Reforming the EU legislative procedures 124 4.2.2. Evaluation of the performance of the Council chairs 125 4.2.3. Rotating Presidency’s role under co-decision: from priorities to the outputs 128 Conclusion 133 Chapter IV. Ruling by delaying? Investigating the informal powers of the rotating Presidency in the post-Lisbon era 136 Introduction 136 1. Theories explaining the delay mechanism 137 1.1. Main theoretical arguments 140 1.2. Explanatory mechanism 141 2. Research design 143 2.1. Case study approach 144 2.2. Operationalisation of variables 145 3.
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