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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in France RC 2015 Report – Team D

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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in France RC 2015 Report – Team D CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in France RC 2015 Report – Team D This report is published for educational purposes only by students competing in the CFA Global Investment Research Challenge Lagardère Group Media Conglomerate Recommendation: SELL Ticker: Bloomberg (Reuters) – MMB FP (LAGA.PA) France Target price: 21.7 € Price (25/12/2015): 27.2€ Downside:-20.2% Highlights Market Profile Over-valuated by the market – We assign a SELL recommendation due to a risky Closing Price (Lagardère Groupe strategy that seems currently underestimated by investors. Our valuation methods (60% 27,25 SCA) from DCF, 30% from Peers Multiples, 10% from Comparable Transactions) including 52-Week Price Range 21.02 - 30.23 holding and strategy execution discounts lead to a target price of €21.7 per share. Average Daily Volume (3M) 251 177 This results in a downside of 20.2% comparing to the price as of 25/12/2015 (€27.2). Shares 131 133 286 Market Cap (€m) 3 573 Dividend Yield 2.1% Unclear strategic positioning – Lagardère has been shifting its strategy towards Digital P / E (ttm) 41.14 and emerging markets, in order to answer market changes and new customers’ P / B (ttm) 1.82 expectations. Given the recent economic turmoil in BRIC countries, this repositioning EV / EBITDA (ttm) 9.32 seems likely to be untimely. The rapid changes observed on Lagardère’s segments could Sources: Yahoo Finance as of 25/12/2015 also lead to increased volatility and uncertainty. Moreover, the M&A policy applied in the recent years has blurred the understanding of the Group’s strategy: Is Lagardère a Media conglomerate or an investment fund? An insufficient growth to catch up with peers – After a decade of continuous contraction of revenues, Lagardère should reverse the trend in the forthcoming years (3.6% CAGR 2015-2019). Meanwhile, operating margins might partially reach peers level. Those views come as a result of Lagardère’s will to recenter on strategic segments and to focus on key brands. Entreprise Value An incomplete strategy – Lagardère’s main challenge in the coming years will be to reach a critical size that would enhance profits generation and ensure a lifelong stability. €4,520.9m Ongoing actions provide the Group with the means to fulfill its ambition. Key Points 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15E* 16E* 17E* 18E* 19E* Sales Revenue 7966,0 7657,0 7370,0 7216,0 7170,0 7270,2 7455,3 7728,7 8033,8 8374,5 % growth -3,9% -3,7% -2,1% -0,6% 1,4% 2,5% 3,7% 3,9% 4,2% EBITDA margin 8,1% 7,8% 7,3% 5,4% 6,2% 7,0% 6,3% 7,0% 7,8% 8,7% Adjusted EBIT 5,0% 4,1% 3,9% 2,6% 3,4% 4,3% 3,9% 4,3% 4,7% 5,2% Net margin 3,2% -8,8% 1,2% 18,1% 0,6% 2,7% 2,6% 2,8% 3,1% 3,5% Total debt/Equity 62,1% 66,3% 80,3% 48,6% 73,0% 63,8% 55,7% 49,0% 42,9% 37,4% Earnings per share 2,0 -5,1 0,7 10,0 0,3 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,9 2,3 ROE 6,4% -22,2% 3,0% 44,7% 2,0% 8,1% 7,2% 6,9% 7,1% 7,3% ROA 2,4% -7,5% 1,0% 15,7% 0,5% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% ROCE 4,1% 4,2% 3,5% 3,9% 4,5% 4,3% 5,2% 4,6% 5,0% 6,1% Sources: Factset, Team estimates (for all estimates, please refer to appendices) 1 Business Description Lagardère SCA, headquartered in Paris, is one of the largest Media conglomerates in France. The group as it is today is the outcome of many transformations of Matra Group. In 1982, Jean-Luc Lagardère decided to regroup Matra’s Media assets in an entity called MMB. In 1992, it merged with Hachette (major publishing company established in 1826) to create “Lagardère Group” renamed in 1996 “Lagardère SCA”. The company, managed by Arnaud Lagardère (Jean-Luc Lagardère’s son), is backed by 23,747 employees through more than 450 consolidated subsidiaries with recorded revenues of €7.1bn in 2014 (-0.6% vs. 2013). Nowadays it operates in almost 60 countries due to its external growth strategy focused on foreign companies. Its activities cover a large range of sectors: publishing, travel retail, medias/audio-visual production and sports management. Lagardère’s main brands are among others Hachette, Europe 1, Relay and Sportfive. Figure 1. Turnover split by BU Business Units This current organization of the Group was set in 2007 and is divided into four main business units: Lagardère Publishing: world’s third-largest publishing company specialized in educational and general audience books. They cover both traditional and electronic publishing. EBIT margin (2014) : 9.8% Lagardère Travel Retail: European leader in Travel Retail and operates in Distribution. Three business units compose the activity: Travel Essentials (diversified shops providing basic items), Duty Free & Luxury (management of shops reselling luxury brands products) and airport catering. This branch is active in 29 countries (130 airports, + 4,000 stores). EBIT margin (2014) : 2.8% Lagardère Active: Branch specialized in Medias and Audio-visual Production, leader in France which operates in 58 countries. It owns 23 radio stations and 17 TV channels throughout the world, but also a lot of newspapers and magazines (84 worldwide including 27 in France) as much as some popular websites. The subsidiary dedicated to TV production is Lagardère Entertainment, whereas digital and advertising activities Source : Company, FactSet are managed by Lagardère Digital France and Lagardère Publicité. EBIT margin (2014) : 7.6% Figure 2. 2014 Turnover split by geography Lagardère Sports & Entertainment: Its main activities are sports broadcasting rights management, event planning, arenas exploitation advisory, athletes’ rights agencies and brand management. Lagardère Sports & Entertainment is involved in 30 different sports, supports more than 200 professional athletes and organizes about 50 events a year. Arnaud Lagardère is the current Chairman and CEO of the Branch. EBIT margin (2014) : 1.0% Company Strategy Overall strategy Lagardère’s overall group strategy is to focus on activities with high growth upsides. Therefore, a particular Source : Company, FactSet focus is given to Lagardère Services and more specifically to the Travel Retail activity. The Group strongly believes in organic growth, backed by some acquisitions. The main idea beyond this strategy is to challenge the current businesses to keep only those able to provide growth intrinsically and then strengthen this virtuous circle thanks to some opportunistic M&A deals. Lagardère also yearns for shifting its geographic footprint towards emerging economies. Indeed, Europe accounts for half the Group’s annual revenues, underlining an unsafe reliance on a continent whose growth in the forthcoming years is not deemed to be very promising. Focus on each business unit Lagardère Publishing: Focuses on technology innovation (e-publishing) with a defined investment plan that might be a huge source of revenues of the B.U for the future. As they are always looking for the new “best- sellers”, buying-out existing publishers (4 acquisitions in 2014) is necessary to extend market shares (above all in English, French and Spanish speaking countries). The B.U is well-balanced in terms of turnover split by geography (see appendix 4) but also by editorial segments (youth, dictionaries, literature, Educational books...). 2 Prospects: Lagardère Publishing is waiting for a new school reform in France that would boost sales significantly. The key point in the coming years will be the growth in the e-books sector (that slowed down in 2014 in the USA and stabilized in the UK). Last but not least, publishers need to control the prices all along the value chain of the book. Companies like Amazon can greatly endanger the book business by charging too low of prices. Lagardère Travel Retail: Lagardère Travel Retail is looking for a game-changing acquisition. The organic growth is steady and promising in emerging countries. They wish to export the standards existing in European airports (a lot of shops covering various ranges of products) in the USA but also in emerging regions (Middle East, Asia). The group has also started an important divestment process of all its Distribution subsidiaries all around the world. USA, Spain and Switzerland are done already. The process is still ongoing in Hungary and Belgium. The Group is quite confident that within a year, this divestment process will be done. Prospects: The growth is tightly linked to aircraft traffic and economic activity (see Industry Overview). The branch wishes to diversify the services and goods provided by its Travel Retail activity. Lagardère Active: Lagardère’s media branch is currently changing its strategy. For radio stations and magazines, the focus is given to top-of-the-range brands (Europe 1, RFM, Paris Match, Elle) that can create value and fit to the new communication media arising (Internet, mobile applications...). Concerning TV channels, two main themes are currently developed: Youth & Family (Gulli – now 100% held by Lagardère –, TiJi) and Music (RFM TV, Mezzo, MCM). The audio-visual segment is still on a growing phase thanks to the acquisition of Réservoir Production in 2014. Lagardère Active also strengthens its position on the Internet through popular websites such as Doctipharma.com or BilletReduc.com. Prospects: Reduction plans are ongoing to soften a potential lack of activity in the Advertising segment. Lagardère Sports & Entertainment: This B.U relies a lot on sports events that occurred during the year. Thus, Lagardère Sports & Entertainment tries to enter into long-term contracts that provide recurring revenues.
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