Mergers, Innovation, and Entry(Exit
Mergers, Innovation, and Entry-Exit Dynamics: Consolidation of the Hard Disk Drive Industry, 1996–2016 Mitsuru Igamiy Kosuke Uetakez August 6, 2019 Abstract How far should an industry be allowed to consolidate when competition and innova- tion are endogenous? We develop a stochastically alternating-move game of dynamic oligopoly, and estimate it using data from the hard disk drive industry, in which a dozen global players consolidated into only three in the last 20 years. We …nd plateau- shaped equilibrium relationships between competition and innovation, with heterogene- ity across time and productivity. Our counterfactual simulations suggest the current rule-of-thumb policy, which stops mergers when three or fewer …rms exist, strikes ap- proximately the right balance between pro-competitive e¤ects and value-destruction side e¤ects in this dynamic welfare tradeo¤. Keywords: Antitrust, Competition and innovation, Dynamic oligopoly, Dynamic wel- fare tradeo¤, Entry and exit, Horizontal mergers, Industry consolidation. JEL classi…cations: L13, L41, L63, O31. For detailed and insightful suggestions, we thank the editor, Aureo de Paula, and three anonymous referees. For helpful comments, we thank John Rust, Paul Ellickson, April Franco, Joshua Gans, Allan Collard-Wexler, and Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, who discussed earlier versions of the paper, as well as partic- ipants at various seminars and conferences. For inside stories and insights, we thank Je¤ Burke, Tu Chen, Finis Conner, MyungChan Jeong, Peter Knight, Currie Munce, Reggie Murray, Orie Shelef, and Lawrence Wu, as well as Mark Geenen and his team at TRENDFOCUS, including John Chen, Don Jeanette, John Kim, and Tim Luehmann. Financial support from the Yale Center for Customer Insights is gratefully acknowledged.
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