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A Study on Evolution of Regional Population Distribution Based on the Dynamic Self-Oraganization Theory

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A Study on Evolution of Regional Population Distribution Based on the Dynamic Self-Oraganization Theory Title A Study on Evolution of Regional Population Distribution Based on the Dynamic Self-Oraganization Theory Author(s) Miyata, Yuzuru; Yamaguchi, Sogo Environmental science, Hokkaido University : journal of the Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido Citation University, Sapporo, 13(1), 1-33 Issue Date 1990-12-20 Doc URL http://hdl.handle.net/2115/37257 Type bulletin (article) File Information 13(1)_1-33.pdf Instructions for use Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers : HUSCAP 1 Environ.Sci.,HokkaidoUniversity 13(1) 1--33 June1990 A Study on Evolution of Regional Population Distribution Based on the Dynamic Self-Organization Theory Yuzuru Miyata and Sogo Yamaguchi Department of Regional Planning, Division of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sappero, 060, Japan Abstract This study airns to investigate the evolution of regional population distribution in Hokkaido brought about by regional infrastructure provision. For this objective we employ the dynamic self-organization model to sirnulate changes of the regional population. First, a simple explanation of the principle of dynamic self-organization is presented in this paper. Secondly, construction ef highways is regarded as " fluctuation", then the evolutions of the regional population distribution are simulated under the principle of dynamic se}f-organization. Key Werds : Self-organization, dissipative structure, population distribution, migration, highway 1. Introduction An interregional imbalance has been highly remarkable in Hokkaido prefecture. That js to say, the main industries such as agriculture, forestry and fishery, iron and steel, coal mining, shipbuildiRg have been deteriorating in Hokkaido prefecture because of the depression of the domestic demand and appreciation of the yen against other foreign currencies. As a result, the opportunity for the employfnent has decreased markedly in the Iocal areas in Hokkaido prefecture, and the inhabitants are migrating to Sapporo city, the capital of Hokkaido prefecture, er out of the prefecture to seek jobs. Under this problem orientation, this paper aims at investigating the possibility of the regional redistribution of population of Hokkaido prefecture based upon the theory of dynamic self-organization of population distribution, which was originated by I.D. Prigo- gine. 2. Recent Deyelopment of Hokkaido Prefecture As mentioned in the introductory section, Hokkaido prefecture has encountered a serious socio-economic situation. Therefore, we quantatively analyze the socio-economic situation of Hokkaido prefecture in this section centering on the population, income and industrial structure. 2-1 I]bPuimion Tables 1 and 2 show the trends of populations of Hokkaido prefecture and Japan, respectively. Let us examine the trend of population of Hokkaido by means of the annual 2 Environmental Science, Hokkaido University Vol. 13, No. 1, i990 Table 1 Population of'Hokkaido (unit:thousand persons) annual average growth rate (o%) 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 '70/'65 '75/'70 '80/'75 '85/'80 Total 5172 5I84 5333 5558 5665 O.05 o .57 o .83 o .38 O-14 1462 1309 1311 l295 1215 -2.19 o-o4 .03 -o .25- 1o3 .27 ee" I5-64 3460 3576 3564 3812 3902 O,66 .07 14 .35 .47 65- 249 299 368 451 548 3.73 .24 .15 .97 Male 2583 2553 2619 2728 2759 -O.23 o .51 o .82 o .23 O-14 746 669 671 663 621 -2,16 oo3 .06 -o .24- 1.3 &as 15-64 1721 1746 1779 1863 1901 O.29 .38 o3 .93 O.4 65- 116 139 169 202 237 3.68 ,99 ,63 3 .25 Female 2589 2631 2714 2830 2906 O.32 o .62 o .84 o .53 O-14 716 641 640 632 594 -2.19 -o .03 -o .25-1 .23 o.as 15-64 1740 1830 1875 1949 2001 1.01 o4 .49 o4 .78 o4 ,53 65- 133 160 199 249 311 3.77 .46 .58 .55 O-14(%) 28.3 25.3 24,6 23.3 21.4 15m64(%o) 66.9 6969 66.8 68,6 68,9 65- (9o) 4.8 5.8 6.9 8.1 9.7 Table 2 Population of Japan (unit:thousand persons) annualaveragegrowthrate (o/o) 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 '70/'65'75/'70'80/'75 '85/'80 Total 99209 104665 11I890 117150 121049 1.081.34O.92 O.66 O-14 25529 25153 27221 27507 26033 -O.31.59O.21 -1.1 &ed 15-64 67444 72119 75717 78835 82509 1.35O.98O.81 O.92 65- 6236 7393 8865 10647 12468 3,463.73.73 3.21 Male 48692 51369 55091 57594 59497 1.081.41O.89 O.65 e-14 12999 12857 13943 14103 13339 -O.221.64O.23- 1.11 ttas 15-64 32952 35266 37274 38942 41031 1.371.11O.88 1.05 65- 2741 3246 3838 4500 5100 3,443.413.23 2.53 Female 50517 53296 56849 59467 61552 1.081.3O.9 O.69 O-14 12530 12295 13273 13404 I4694 -O.381.54O.2 1.85 &es 15-64 34493 36854 38533 39893 41475 1.33O.89O.7O O.78 65- 3495 4147 5028 6148 7368 3.483.934.l 3.69 O-I4(%) 25,7 24 24,3 23.5 21,5 15-64(r/.) 68 68.9 67.7 67.3 68,2 65- (%) 6.3 7.1 7.9 9.1 10.3 average growth rate during each five-year interval from 1965 to 1985. The annual average growth rates are O.05% from 1965 to 1970, O.57% from 1970 to 1975, O.83% from 1975 to 1980 and O.38% from 1980 to 1985. Comparing these figures with those of Japan, the annual growth rate in Hokkaido is smaller than that of Japan in every period. Thus it may be concluded that the outmigration from Hokkaido prefecture has been far exceeded that of inmigration. However, the annual average growth rate was nearly equal to that of Japan in the period from 1975 to 1980. This phenomenon is interpreted as that the settlement of Regional Population Distribution 3 v o Soy. a Rumsi .: i.Ahashir3 ishik'5'ri"`'! tt ti:aMikava:;I'ikachi Kusahioro Nemur[i! ..ooo 0 xebeShie p Sorachi Hi"ama:: Iburi' 't, Hidaka a eshima Figure.1 Classification of Hokkaido into Fourteen BIocks the population was promoted in Hokl<aido because of the increasing of per capita income in Hokkaido prefecture. Looking at the change of population by age groups in Table 2, it is observed that the share rate of the young age group from O to 14 years old decreased from 1965 to 1985. However, this trend is also observed in the change of the national population. Thus this phenemenon is considered to be due to the decrease of the birth rate. The share rate of the class from 15 to 64 years old slightly iRcreased from 1965 to 1985, but it was more than that of the national population after 1980. This trend is considered to reflect the concentration of young people in Sapporo city. The population of people more than 65 years old has increased since 1965, but its share rate has been smaller than that of the national popula- tion. Thus, Hokkaido stands out as the region where the advancing of age is the slowest among the local regions in Japan. Now, let us divide Hokkaido prefecture into fourteen blocks and examine the change of population in more detail. The division of Y{{ol<kaido is depicted in Figure 1, and cities, towns and villages in each block are illustrated in Table 3. Table 4 and Figure 2 show the trend of the population of each block from 1975 to 1985. It is observed in the table or the figure that the population increased only in Ishikari block, which has Sapporo city, and the populations of the other blocks leveled off or decreased. Because the natural growth rate of the population is positive, this trend is interpreted as the number of emigrants out of Hokkaido was larger than the emigrants in each block except Ishikari block. 4 Environmental Science, Hokkaido University Vol. 13, No. 1, 1990 (unit: ten thousand persons) 2gB %t$V15 Nt9Se Xt9B5b 18g 164i] 1z"b 12S 1eEI en ea ca ee e 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 IM tl t2 13 t4 Figure.2 Actual Population of Each Block 2-2 income We consider the iRcome of Hokkaido prefecture in this subsection. Table 5 shows the trend of the regional incomes of Japan and Table 6 denotes the per capita incomes of the nine regions. The annual average growth rate of the income of Hokkaido prefecture were 8.94% from 1965 to 1970, 6.9% from 1970 to 1975, 5.93% from 1975 to 1980 and 1.52% from 1980 to 1985. Comparing these figures with those of the national income, Hokkaido's growth rates exceeded the national rates from 1970 to 1980. Therefore it is considered that the oil shock in 1974 did not markedly affect Hokkaido's economy. However, the annual average growth rate from 1980 to 1985 was smallest among those of the nine regions, thus it can be said that present Hokkaido prefecture is in a serious socio-economic situation. Now, normalizing the regional per capita incomes by taking the national average as a hundred, Hokkaido's per capita incomes were 92.2 in 1965, 86.0 in 197e, 94.2 in 1975, 99. 8 in 198e and 91.5 in 1985. Despite the fact that the per capita income of Hokkaido prefecture was growing larger after 1965 and reached nearly the national average level in 198e, it has been decreasing recently because of another interregional imbalaRce due to the one-pole concentration of socio-economic activities in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
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