Newsletter No. 47

Issue No. 47 September, 2001

The International GeosphereÐBiosphere Programme (IGBP): A Study of Global Change IGBP is sponsored by the International www.igbp.kva.se Council for Science (ICSU)

The Global Change Open Science Conference Ð Amsterdam, July 2001 This edition of the Global Change Newsletter focuses on outcomes of the recent Open Science Conference, Chal- lenges of a Changing Earth. The Newsletter begins with an introduction to the event and feedback from conference participants. Four influential global change scientists, Bert Bolin, Robert Watson, Bob Scholes and Ian Noble, reach a consensus over the role of terrestrial carbon sinks in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (page 4). This important statement Peter Haugan takes a serious look at the future of the IGBP was hammered out over lunch during the conference in re- post Amsterdam on page 36 and Executive Director, Will sponse to confusion amongst journalists and others regard- Steffen, offers a response (page 37). Also in the corresponding the importance of terrestrial sinks. ence section, Gamini Seneviratne looks for new ways to From page 5, we have a series of 9 articles based on pres- enhance terrestrial carbon sinks. entations in the abundant parallel sessions and the centre- Many people have asked about the plenary papers from fold presents four of the eight winners of the Student Poster the conference. These are currently being collated for pub- Awards. On page 16, we provide a preliminary analysis of lication by Springer and will hopefully be available early next media coverage resulting from the conference. year. We’ll keep you posted.

Contents Feedback from conference participants ...... 2 How and why people and institutions matter beyond economy ...... 20 Kyoto and Terrestrial sinks ...... 4 Student Posters ...... 23 Bridging western scientific and traditional knowledge of Climate Change ...... 5 Agents and their Environment: Syndromes of land-use change in developing countries ...... 27 Secondary Production in the Oceans and the Response to Climate Change ...... 9 Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific ...... 30

Effects of Increasing Atmospheric CO on Estimations of ENSO effects on sugarcane 2 Phytoplankton Communities ...... 12 yields in Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela ...... 33

Media at the OSC ...... 16 Correspondence ...... 36

Land cover change over the last three IGBP and Related Meetings ...... 41 centuries due to human activities ...... 17 1 The Global Change Open Science Conference, Challenges of a Changing Earth, in Amsterdam was a landmark event in many respects. It was the first time that the three Global Environmental Change Programmes, IGBP, IHDP (International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change) and WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) held a combined conference on such a large scale. It was undoubtedly a turning point in the process of forging a three-way partnership that will significantly enhance Earth System Science at the international level.

Facing the Challenge

The conference was also unique in bringing press agencies, New Scientist, Nature, Science, together so many global change scientists from The Los Angeles Times and many more (see all over the world. More than 400 scientists (just page 16 for a preliminary analysis of media under a third of the total participation) attended coverage). from 62 developing countries. Overall, the Many have commented on the high quality and conference brought together around 1400 breadth of the presentations, with one common scientists representing 105 countries, making it complaint being insufficient time for questions a truly global event. and discussion. Here we present more feedback Challenges of a Changing Earth also attracted from participants who attended the conference. more than 50 journalists with many more We welcome your feedback, either in the form of reporting from a distance. The conference was “Letters to the Editor” or comments for internal covered by BBC World Service, Reuters, use, rather than for publication. Please send your Associated Press, French, Dutch and German comments to [email protected]

2 “I’ve attended more meetings than I care to count in my should have provided tangible/proactive action plans 30-odd years in this area. This one was by far the best with specific targets set as well as an evaluation in every dimension. Most people nowadays have a framework for the plans. A lot still remains to be done if vague notion about human-induced changes in the we in the developing countries are to make any impact global environment - ozone depletion, climate change, in global change research, and we shall continue biodiversity, etc. However, hardly anyone save the relying on the developed world more.” people represented in Amsterdam truly comprehends Evans Kituyi, African Centre for Technology Stud- the enormity and gravity of these changes - and the ies, Kenya desperate urgency of doing something to constrain them. Scientists in general are far too cautious, far too civilized, far too concerned for abstract notions of “The conference for the first time presented convincing process and credibility. All these considerations are evidence of major change to the global system, largely laudable when developing fundamental knowledge based on paleological studies using ground-based data over the course of generations. However, they are - demonstrating the central importance of preserving grossly inappropriate when faced with the impending and extending ground-based monitoring of atmos- global holocaust that is one possible scenario arising pheric and other earth system variables.” from the results presented in Amsterdam.” Dr Michael Hutchinson, Centre for Resource and John Perry, Consultant to START (synthesis), USA Environmental Studies, Australia

“The conference has successfully reviewed advances “The multi-disciplinary global congregation on climate on influence of human and natural processes on the change made the Conference a very thought-provoking global environmental changes. I think that if relevant event. However identification of collaborating themes research achievements regarding interaction between for research on impact and adaptation in the develop- human and nature processes as well as how they ing countries, could have made the conference much jointly exert their influence on the environment could be more meaningful.” showed more, it would contribute to understand better Amit Garg, Indian Institute of Management, India the challenges of a changing Earth we face. I suggest that it is better to hold one such conference every around three years if possible.” “This year’s “Global Change” Open Science Confer- ence in Amsterdam was a highlight in international Yetang Hong, State Key Laboratory of Environmen- scientific and environmental exchange. I was particu- tal Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences larly interested in the expertise and creativity of suggested solutions to environmental issues from and “The most impressive aspect of the conference was to within developing countries. Many of the sensitive see the large number of scientists and scientific balances of nature may only be understood from within presentations relating to so many different aspects of a local ecosystem. “Western” solutions might not global change almost all, without exception, driving always meet the requirements. It is my hope that this home the same message that there is a problem i.e. conference has stimulated and enabled broader that change is occurring at a pace which demands very information exchange between the developed and less swift action from all countries. The participation of developed countries as well as between disciplines and developing country scientists was essential because scientific approaches. Modern technologies like Re- the meeting contextualised their research very force- mote Sensing are highly valuable tools for interdiscipli- fully especially for those whose research was not nary research.” initially motivated by global change concerns. Unfortu- Ulrike Granoegger, Academy For Future Science, nately, the seminar on reinforcing capacity in develop- Germany ing countries was too short to propose concrete ways of achieving this aim in the area of global change but many of the difficulties facing all scientists in these “I was generally impressed with the quality of the countries were highlighted. presentations and the high level of co-operation among the programmes. It would have been nice to get a bit Richard A Hall, International Foundation for Sci- more discussion though - a few questions at least (but I ence, Sweden suppose time was the major constraint). I was pleased to discover that the work we are doing on national “[The conference was] unique because of the large assessments for adaptation to climate change reso- representation from developing countries - thanks to nates with other researchers, even though we are IGBP for support - and because of including a social/ coming at the same problem from different angles for policy perspective in the plenary and poster sessions. the purpose of both policy and applied science.” Causes of poor participation in global research by Bo Lim, National Communications Support Pro- developing countries are well known. The meeting gramme, UNDP-GEF, USA

3 At the Open Science Conference there was much discussion, and some confusion, about the contribution of terrestrial sinks to reducing the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Are these sinks reliable? Can and should we depend on them? What does the future hold? Four prominent global carbon experts joined forces during the conference to nut out some answers to a few of the more perplexing questions. The following statement was sent to journalists covering the ongoing Kyoto negotiations in July. The Kyoto Protocol and Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

By Bert Bolin, Ian Noble, Bob Scholes and Robert Watson The Kyoto Protocol recognises the potential contribution of sinks (above and below ground biomass and soil carbon) to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere through a range of land-use, land- use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities. However, there is a range of scientific issues associated with LULUCF activities that need clarification. These must be differentiated from political issues. Scientific issues that need clarification include: Does planting trees (afforestation and refor- Do A and R activities have other beneficial or estation, A and R) result in the short-term and adverse environmental and social effects? A and long-term sequestration of carbon? The sim- R activities can either benefit or adversely affect the ple answer is yes. Carbon will be removed from environment, hence opportunities need to be sought the atmosphere for decades to centuries and even that yield multiple environmental and social benefits, where growth slows, carbon can remain seques- while ensuring that adverse consequences are tered in above and below ground biomass and avoided. soils. Monitoring systems are essential to record Does slowing deforestation help protect the cli- the uptakes and releases through forest uses or mate system? Yes, it reduces the emissions of car- disturbances. bon into the atmosphere and simultaneously ben- Is it possible that some of the sequestered efits biodiversity, water resources and other ecologi- carbon in the above and below-ground cal goods and services. biomass and soils could be released back into Do other LULUCF activities, e.g., improved for- the atmosphere if there were significant est, cropland and range-land management and changes in climate? Yes, some of the seques- agroforestry result in the short-term and long- tered carbon could be released under certain cir- term sequestration of carbon? Yes and the po- cumstances, particularly in areas with significant tential magnitudes are larger, and the cautionary increases in temperature coupled with decreased issues are the same as those addressed previously precipitation - however, this situation is unlikely to for ARD activities. occur for many decades. Even then there would still be more carbon in all three pools than if the A Can carbon be adequately measured in above- and R activities had not taken place. and below-ground biomass and soils? Ye s, bu t few countries have an existing appropriate opera- Are there any situations where afforestation tional monitoring system in place. and reforestation activities can have adverse effect on climate? Yes, but they are of limited ex- Does the use of LULUCF activities buy time to tent. For example, A and R activities can affect the transform energy systems to lower greenhouse Earth’s albedo, especially at high latitudes, hence gas emitting systems? Yes, but it will allow more a careful analysis is needed to evaluate the cli- fossil fuel carbon to be used thus transferring more mate implications of sequestering carbon vs de- carbon from the very long-lived fossil carbon pools creased albedo. into the more labile biological pools.

From the point of view of the carbon cycle, avoiding a tonne of fossil emissions is always better than creating a tonne of sinks. But recognising the difficulties of achieving reductions in fossil emissions, sinks can play an important transitional role.

Bert Bolin, Stockholm University, Bob Scholes, Commonwealth Scientific and E-mail: [email protected] Industrial Research, E-mail: [email protected] Ian Noble, CRC for Greenhouse Accounting, Robert Watson, World Bank, E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

4 Science from the parallel sessions: The Cryosphere and Global Change

Change project set out to achieve Bridging scientific and traditional two goals. The first goal was knowledge of climate change in the related to public awareness on climate change. This goal was Canadian Arctic met through the production of a by J. Castleden video that demonstrated to decision-makers, interest-groups, civil society and the media that climate change is making an At the recent Global Change Open Science Conference in Amster- dam, it was apparent that the level of interest in diverse knowledge systems, and the synergies between knowledge systems, is growing. From discussions of sustainability science [1], - with one of its driving forces being the integration of knowledge and action; schol- ars and practitioners - to calls for the expansion of social participation and perspectives [2], the opportunity is ripe for reflection on how communities and local people may inform the growing field of global change research.

A recent project entitled Inuit ing on the coastline and along Observations on Climate Change the shores of inland lakes. The sought to bring together two melting has already caused one knowledge systems – Traditional inland lake to drain into the Inuit Knowledge [3] and Western ocean, killing the freshwater fish. Scientific Knowledge [4] – to Given the dramatic changes better understand climate-related that local people have observed, changes on an Arctic island in the International Institute for impact on the traditional lifestyle Canada. The following overview Sustainable Development (IISD) and livelihood system of people of the project methodology and and the Hunters and Trappers from Sachs Harbour. The second results may serve as a model for Committee of Sachs Harbour goal was related to the relation- global change researchers collaborated on a year-long ship between traditional knowl- wishing to expand their knowl- project to document the evidence edge and scientific research on edge of place-based of Arctic climate change and climate change. This second goal vulnerabilities, impacts, and communicate it to Canadian and tested a methodology for under- associated coping/adaptation international audiences. The standing the traditional knowl- strategies. Inuit Observations on Climate edge of Inuit people regarding Project Overview Sachs Harbour, NWT (72°, 125°), is located on Banks Island in Canada’s western arctic. People from this tiny community have observed climate-related changes including the earlier break up and later freeze up of sea-ice, making it more difficult and dangerous to hunt and trap. New species of insects, fish and mammals are appearing for the first time. Permafrost, the permanent layer of frozen ground, is melting, causing town buildings to shift, and increasing the rate of slump-

5 maps of the island were used to geographically place the observations. Photos were used when available to ensure that the science team and the participant were clear on the details of the topic in question. Site visits were conducted in several cases to allow the science team to see certain changes (such as permafrost related erosion) for themselves. Results Seven journal articles on the findings from this project have been produced and published, with two further scientific articles being climate change and explored visits focused on sea and lake ice prepared for publication in 2002. how traditional knowledge, local related changes during the fall The project team met its objec- observations and adaptive fishing and sealing season tives to: devise a process and strategies may complement (August 1999), impacts on techniques needed to interview scientific research on climate wildlife during the winter elders, hunters and community change in the Arctic. hunting season (February 2000), members about traditional and permafrost melting during knowledge of climate-related Methodology the spring goose hunt (May 2000) change; determine the extent of respectively. The science team During the two year initiative traditional knowledge in the included a lead scientist, a (June 1999 – June 2001), the community; and determine the traditional knowledge advisor, a project team worked in partner- relevance of that knowledge to graduate student and a rotating ship with specialists from five scientific research on climate “guest” scientist with expertise organizations [5] to develop an change. relevant to season specific issues. innovative method [6] for The science team members Extent and Relevance of recording and sharing local followed an informal semi- Traditional Knowledge observations on climate change. directed interview approach, The approach combined partici- The project visits subsequent to asking local people to elaborate patory workshops, semi-struc- the first planning mission to on the observations that they had tured interviews, community Sachs Harbour were particularly identified during the initial meetings and fieldwork to better important, as the project team planning workshop. The ques- understand the extent of local expanded on observations of tions asked by the science team knowledge of climate change. climate change from the commu- in relation to sea ice, weather, An initial planning session nity workshops held during the species health and distribution, was held in Sachs Harbour in first trip in June. The science and permafrost changes were June 1999 to provide an opportu- group was able to get a better open ended and meant to stimu- nity for local people to describe understanding of the extent and late discussion that would draw their livelihood system, discuss relevance of traditional knowl- out the linkages between differ- the climate change phenomena edge in the community. Key ent observations. The interviews they are experiencing and help results obtained from these were also intended to differenti- the project team plan further interviews: ate between normal and unusual trips to the community. Based on • climate-related observa- climate induced events. Addi- the outcome of the planning tions from non-climate- tionally, the interviews gave the workshop, the team made three related observations science group insight into the further visits to the community. could be separated with process and techniques needed The trips were scheduled on a further interviews by the to interview elders, hunters and seasonal basis so that total project team; community members about impact of climate change in an traditional knowledge of climate- • observations could be annual cycle could be under- related change. Topographic placed temporally and stood and documented. These spatially;

6 • the context of the obser- have an impact on the sea ice changes. However, vations was identified; community and the way Riedlinger [8] cautions that the in which people tradi- coping strategies currently • observations could be tionally harvest animals. developed to alter subsistence stratified; activities in relation to this 5. knowledge of perma- • community members unpredictability are recent, and frost-related changes is who were Elders or active that they should not be inter- closely tied to commu- harvesters were most preted as a general indicator of nity activities, including knowledgeable about the ability of the community to travel, hunting and climate-related change make adaptations in the future. fishing; and traditional activities; and 6. community members Relevance to the interviewed can differen- • community members Global Change tiate between natural and have their own indicators abnormal climate and Community of change, which is erosion processes; relevant to understanding As the global change research climate change. 7. discussions of perma- community is grappling with the frost-related changes do questions of vulnerability and Science Team not occur in isolation resilience issues within the The following are several conclu- from other variables such nature-society system, and sions [7] that have been drawn by as wind, precipitation, seeking methods for integrating the science group from the temperature, human research planning, monitoring, interviews conducted in August activity and seasonal assessment, and decision- (1999), February (2000) and May change; and making, the lessons learned in (2000). the Inuit Observations on Climate 8. changes associated with Change project may serve as one 1. There is an abundance of melting permafrost, model for further inquiry. knowledge in the com- while very visible, have Success of the Inuit Observa- munity related to histori- had less of an impact on tions on Climate Change project cal and current sea ice community activities can be attributed to several conditions, weather than the rapid spring factors. Full and active commu- patterns, erosion/perma- melt and the delayed nity participation was sought frost melt and wildlife winter freeze-up. and attained throughout all populations, as well as stages of the project. The dual the linkages and relation- Coping Strategies objectives of science and public ships between these The focus of the project from the awareness were mutually phenomena; beginning was on observations reinforcing. The video documen- 2. Understanding some of climate change, rather than on tary showed the human dimen- aspects of climate-related adaptation strategies. It became sion of climate change to deci- change, such as those evident during the research, sion-making, media and civil related to wildlife, are however, that coping strategies society audiences. The science complicated by other are being used to deal factors such as harvesting with the climate- patterns or species related changes and interaction; increased unpredictability of the 3. Traditional knowledge environment. At clearly contributes to present, while climate current western science- change is having a based knowledge of direct impact on the climate change; in many community, commu- cases it is spatially and nity members are able temporally extensive and to cope. This is prima- can help “piece together” rily done by adjusting historical information; harvesting activities in 4. While the specific impacts response to the in- of climate change may be creased difficult to assess, it is unpredictability of clear that changes will weather, and land and

7 papers added rigor and analysis Traditional knowledge, by tions from: the Climate Change that enhanced the credibility of offering a different “way of Action Fund (Public Education the project to academia. As well, knowing” can increase the and Outreach); the Walter & traditional knowledge and possibilities of research questions Duncan Gordon Foundation; the scientific research complemented and hypotheses. In Riedlinger Climate Change Action Fund each other to give a more com- and Berkes (2000) [10], five areas (Science, Impacts and Adapta- plete understanding of climate are identified as climate change tion); Indian and Northern Affairs change. Traditional knowledge research interests which may be Canada; and the Government of provided a convincing narrative informed by traditional knowl- the Northwest Territories. Gener- through detailed and historical edge. These five areas of knowl- ous in-kind support was given by observations. It helped to estab- edge are: the Hunters and Trappers Com- lish linkages between multiple • local scale expertise; mittee of Sachs Harbour; the climate change related impacts Inuvialuit Game Council; the and it was drawn from continual • a source for climate Inuvialuit Joint Secretariat; the observation throughout the history and baseline data; Inuvialuit Communications seasons. Adopting a seasonal • developing research Society; the Natural Resources approach to the project itself questions and hypoth- Institute, University of Manitoba; contributed to better science eses; the Department of Fisheries and team research. Oceans; the Government of the • insight into impacts and Northwest Territories; and the Crossing Knowledge adaptation in communi- Geological Survey of Canada. Boundaries ties; and For more information the final Cooperation between social and • in long-term community- report, summary version of the physical scientists in the area of based monitoring. video, photos, and individual trip climate change impact assessment By including local people from reports may be accessed at the has broadened our understanding the beginning in the design and following web site: http:// of this field much more than what practice of research, opportunities www.iisd.org/casl/projects/ each could have accomplished exist for expanding our under- inuitobs.htm separately [9]. The Inuit project standing of complex environmen- Jennifer Castelden provides an example of how tal trends such as global change. crossing knowledge boundaries - International Institute for Sustainable Development in this case local and scientific Acknowledgements 161 Portage Ave. East, 6th Floor expertise – increased our under- This project was made possible Winnipeg, Manitoba, standing of climate change Canada R3B 0Y4 through the support and initiative impacts and observations on E-mail: [email protected] Banks Island. of the community of Sachs Harbour and financial contribu-

References 1. Robert W. Kates, Nature-Society Interactions: Understand- from Arctic Canada.” Journal of Development Communica- ing the Environment and Development Together. Plenary tion 1, no. 11 (2000): 93-108. presentation, Global Change Open Science Conference, 7. Ashford, Graham and Jennifer Castleden. “Inuit Observa- Amsterdam, The Netherlands, July 2001. tions on Climate Change: Final Report”. IISD publication 2. Julia Carabias, Challenges and Road Blocks for Local (2001). and Global Sustainability. Plenary presentation, Global 8. Riedlinger, Dyanna. “Responding to climate change in Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Neth- Northern communities: Impacts and adaptations.” InfoNorth erlands, July 2001. (Arctic) 54, no. 1 (2001), pp. 96-98 3. Traditional knowledge, also referred to as indigenous 9. Long, Marybeth and Alastair Iles. “Assessing Climate knowledge, is local knowledge, adapted to the culture and Change Impacts: Co-evolution of Knowledge, Communities, the ecology of each population, and matured over a period and Methodologies.” ENRP Discussion Paper E-97-09, of time encompassing thousands of years. (From Our Re- Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, August sponsibility to the Seventh Generation, IISD) 1997 and also as International Institute for Applied Systems 4. Western Science is a term used in this document to de- Analysis Interim Report IR-97-036/August. scribe the prevailing paradigm of science today. 10. Riedlinger, Dyanna. and Fikret Berkes. “Contributions of 5. The Inuvialuit Joint Secretariat; the Natural Resources traditional knowledge to understanding climate change in the Institute, University of Manitoba; the Department of Fisher- Canadian Arctic.” In Community-based assessments of ies and Oceans; the Government of the Northwest Territo- change: Contributions of Inuvialuit knowledge to understand- ries; and the Geological Survey of Canada. ing climate change in the Canadian Arctic (2001). 6. Best described in Ford, Neil. “Communicating climate change from the perspective of local people: A case study

8 Science from the parallel sessions: The Oceans and Climate Change

It is obvious that, at least at a Secondary production in the oceans gross level, there must be some relationship between the amount and the response to climate change. of primary production in the sea by M. Heath, F. Carlotti, B. de Young, O. Fiksen and and the amount of fish available C. Werner for harvesting. However, the details of this relationship are very much less clear. This is partly because the turn-over Trends over the past 50 years in the ocean climate of the North rates of carbon (roughly the Atlantic (convective depth, poleward heat transport, overflow from reciprocal of the life-cycle the Nordic Seas) are now well documented. Some of these are duration) are very much lower at correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index. What is the the top of the web compared to impact of these large scale, low frequency climatic changes on the the lowest trophic levels. Hence, living resources of the North Atlantic? the production by fish reflects some long-term integral of the Economically important stocks of and Labrador shelves of more primary production. In addition, many fish species in shelf seas all than 2 million tonnes. The North the connection between primary around the North Atlantic have Atlantic GLOBEC programme production by algae and the suffered major declines in aims to discover how the second- growth and recruitment of fish abundance over the past half- ary productivity of North Atlan- involves many predator-prey century. Prime examples are cod tic shelf seas is linked to basin- steps or trophic levels, with in the northwestern Atlantic and scale, long-term properties of the varying degrees of energy loss at in the North Sea. Without doubt, ocean circulation and climate each stage. Variations in the fishing pressure has played the system. species composition of each major role in these declines, but some aspects of the changes indicate that concurrent environmental changes are also involved. In the northwestern Atlantic, the cod stock has failed to recover despite a moratorium

“In the northwestern Atlantic, the cod stock has failed to recover despite a moratorium on fishing, suggesting that historic productivity characteristics no longer apply”

on fishing, suggesting that historic productivity characteristics no longer apply. Is this because of some climate-related Figure 1. Long-term (1950-1999) mean abundance of adult and change in the underlying pro- late development stages of Calanus finmarchicus in the ductivity of the food web as a upper 10m of the North Atlantic Ocean. Composite im- whole, or some ecological age derived from data supplied by the Continuous Plank- ton Recorder Survey operated by the Sir Alister Hardy response to the collapse of cod? Foundation for Ocean Science, UK, and from the EU- Northern cod had an historical TASC project. The image shows the two main centres of biomass on the Newfoundland abundance, one in the Irminger/Labrador Sea south of Greenland, and the other in the Norwegian Sea.

9 (Figure 1) show that the contribution of C. finmarchicus to the annual average proportion of omnivorous zooplankton biomass in, for example, the northern North Sea has progressively declined from a peak of around 40% in the mid-1960’s to around 5% today (Figure 2). At the same time, there has been around a four-fold increase in the abundance of larvae of benthic species, suggesting an increase in the amount of primary production reaching the seabed to feed benthic fauna. These observations indicate dramatic changes over the last 40-50 years in the structure of the food web supporting the North Sea fisheries. The rate at which they have occurred indicates that slow climatic processes are involved. Figure 2. Trends in the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus copepodite Analysis of the Continuous stages in the northern North Sea derived from Continuous Plank- Plankton Recorder data set ton Recorder Survey data. Annual mean biomass (mg C m-3) in shows that the well documented the upper 10m, and as a proportion of the biomass of an assem- decline in C finmarchicus in the blage of species representing all omnivorous zooplankton. Data supplied by the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, North Sea, has occurred concur- UK. rently over a large part of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, indicating that the events in the North Sea are probably part of a large scale phenomenon and not intervening trophic level further we can gain a better understand- a local scale event. Similarly, weaken the connection between ing of the flux of material to the changes in abundance are production at the top and bottom higher trophic levels. correlated over a large part of the of the food web. northwestern Atlantic, but in At first sight the this case the abundance has complexity of the food “…observations indicate increased since the 1960’s. web makes the task of The implication is that whilst assessing the sensitivity of dramatic changes over the last year-to-year variability in the secondary production to 40-50 years in the structure of shelf seas may be more climate changes seem driven by local conditions, intractable. However, it the food web supporting the the low-frequency, longer turns out that certain key North Sea fisheries. The rate term changes which are species in the food web, important for higher trophic particularly amongst the at which they have occurred level productivity, are prima- omnivorous zooplankton indicates that slow climatic rily driven by the ocean basin (the plankton animals scale dynamics. Over the past which graze directly on processes are involved” 8 years we have gained much the algae and are in turn insight into interaction eaten by pelagic fish and between large-scale processes juvenile demersal fish), and C. finmarchicus popula- exert a particularly strong In the sub-polar North tion dynamics, from the EU influence on the proportion of Atlantic and many of the fring- funded ICOS and TASC projects, primary production which is ing shelf seas, one of the most the US-GLOBEC programme, passed up the food web towards important of the key species is and various nationally funded the fish, or is deposited on the the copepod Calanus finmarchicus. projects. The details involve seabed to support the benthos Data from the UK Continuous particular life-history characteris- and shellfish. By studying these, Plankton Recorder Surveys tics of the species, and their

10 interaction with the 3-dimen- ment stages will enter diapause and spawn a new generation. At sional basin-scale circulation of in mid summer, sink out of the the northern extreme of the the North Atlantic. surface layer to the seabed or range, in the Greenland Sea and The growth and reproduction neutral buoyancy depths, form- Davis Strait, the population may of C. finmarchicus occurs in only produce a single genera- the upper layers of the ocean tion per year, whilst at the (<100m). Under normal southern extreme off the circumstances, at surface “…the events in the North eastern coast of the USA, south ocean temperatures, the of Iceland and in the waters species has a life cycle of 30- Sea are probably part of a west of the UK, at least two 50 days involving a succes- large scale phenomenon generation per year are more sion of naupliar (larval) and usual. copepodite (juvenile) moult and not a local scale event” The conditions defining stages. However, the critical suitable overwintering habitats life-history trait which for C. finmarchicus seem to be couples the species to the accessibility from the loci of ocean circulation is its ing dense aggregations. The summer production in the overwintering strategy. Late pre- resting copepods remain in this surface layers, dispersal rate, adults have the ability to enter a condition until the following temperature, and predator resting state, equivalent to the spring. We do not know exactly abundance. Low temperature is diapause in some insects, ena- what cues cause emergence from highly advantageous because it bling them to survive without diapause, but in spring the further slows down the meta- feeding for periods of up to 6-8 surviving copepods swim back bolic rate and increases the months. Typically, late develop- to the surface to mature, mate endurance of the diapause state.

Figure 3. Schematic representation of the role of oceanic population dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus in the long- term trends of abundance on the continental shelf. The oceanic circulation system supports a self-sus- taining life cycle, with diapause stages surviving through the winter at depth. Late development stages are exported annually to the continental shelves where there is limited scope for year-to-year mainte- nance of the life cycle. Population production on the shelf supports the fisheries food web.

11 In addition, visual predators habitat in deep water masses are detailed modelling and observa- are generally less abundant in playing a large role. Data from tion programme in the North extremes of low temperature. the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Atlantic basin scale will be The appropriate combination of which lies between the Faroe getting underway in late 2001 to conditions is rarely found in Islands and the Shetland Islands address this question. The work shelf sea waters, and the majority off northern Scotland, show that will be a collaboration between of the overwintering stock between October and March, the UK-GLOBEC programme resides at depths of 600-2000m in dense concentrations of and GLOBEC research pro- the open ocean, especially in the overwintering C. finmarchicus are grammes in Canada, Iceland, Norwegian Sea and, it is as- found in the deep (>600m) cold Norway and USA. sumed, in the Labrador/ overflow of Norwegian Sea Deep Irminger Sea in the northwest Water into the Atlantic. This Mike Heath Atlantic. In the Norwegian Sea, overflow is part of the Fisheries Research Services, these depths correspond to thermohaline circulation system Marine Laboratory, temperatures less than 1°C. which ventilates the global PO Box 101, Victoria Road, Modelling and field observations oceans. Norwegian Sea Deep Aberdeen, AB11 9DB, UK. have shown that most of the Water is generated by deep E-mail: [email protected] productive populations in shelf convection in the Greenland Sea, Francois Carlotti seas are sustained by annual and as this process has slowed University of Bordeaux, France recolonisation from these oceanic down in concert with the rise in E-mail: [email protected] overwintering stocks. This the NAO since the 1960s, so the bordeaux.fr explains why the long-term volume of Deep Water in the Brad de Young trends in abundance in, for Faroe-Shetland Channel has Memorial University of example, the North Sea appear to decreased. In consequence, the Newfoundland, Canada be driven by the changes occur- abundance of overwintering E-mail: [email protected] ring over the wider northeast stock available to colonise the Atlantic (Figure 3). North Sea each spring has also Oyvind Fiksen So, the issue resolves to what declined, thus providing a University of Bergen, Norway is driving the basin scale changes possible explanation for the E-mail: [email protected] in C. finmarchicus abundance in Continuous Plankton recorder Cisco Werner the ocean? One theory is that observation in the North Sea. Are University of North Carolina, USA changes in the deep circulation of similar relationships responsible E-mail: [email protected] the North Atlantic and the for the long-term dynamics in availability of overwintering the North Atlantic as a whole? A

A climate-induced increase in Effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 surface ocean stratification has on phytoplankton communities two opposing effects on phytoplankton productivity: it and the biological carbon pump reduces nutrient supply from by U. Riebesell, I. Zondervan, B. Rost, and R.E. Zeebe deeper layers and increases light availability due to shoaling of the upper mixed layer. These changes are likely to cause an

In global assessments of potential anthropogenic CO2 sources and overall decrease and – due to a sinks, the oceanic biosphere has commonly been considered to longer growing season at high remain constant over time scales relevant to ‘global change’. The latitudes – a poleward shift in ‘constant oceanic biosphere’ concept is based on the assumption oceanic primary production. that anthropogenic perturbations of environmental conditions Recent model calculations in fact determining ocean productivity are insignificant on a global scale. indicate large regional differ- However, large-scale changes in surface ocean chemical equilibria ences in the effects of climate and elemental cycling have occurred in the framework of ‘global change on the marine biota, change’ and are expected to continue and intensify in the future. predicting a 20% decrease in One of the most prominent anthropogenic perturbations, the pro- export production in low lati- gressive increase in atmospheric CO2, affects the marine biota in tudes and a 30% increase in high various ways: indirectly through rising mean global temperatures latitudes for a 2 x CO2 scenario causing increased surface ocean stratification, and directly through [3]. Changes in the amount and changes in surface ocean carbonate chemistry. distribution of primary production will affect higher trophic

12 1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2 5 10 15 20 25 30

Figure 1. Potential effects of rising CO2 on phytoplankton: A. Due to differences in CO2 sensitivity between phytoplankton

taxonomic groups, rising CO2 is likely to influence phytoplankton composition and succession. One possible con-

sequence could be shift in the contribution of calcifying phytoplank on to total primary production. B. Rising CO2 decreases the ratio of calcification to organic carbon production in two coccolithophore species (Riebesell et al 2000: Nature 2000).

Note that the decrease in this ratio is caused by both reduced calcification and enhanced Corg-prduction. A and B have opposing effects on the ratio of calcification to organic matter production.

levels, with likely consequences relative to pre-industrial values respect to the CO2 specificity of for key economic fisheries. (assuming IPCC’s ‘business as the predominant carboxylating Aside from its indirect effect on usual’ scenario IS 92a). This will enzyme ribulose bisphosphate 2- climate, the present rise in atmos- cause CO3 concentrations and carboxylase/oxygenase pheric CO2 concentration directly seawater pH to drop by ca. 50% (Rubisco). Rubisco specificity - impacts the marine biota by and 0.35 units, respectively. the enzyme’s affinity to CO2 changing the surface ocean carbon- These changes in seawater relative to its affinity to O2 – ate chemistry. By the end of the carbonate chemistry are likely to decreases with increasing evolu- next century, the expected increase affect phytoplankton taxonomic tionary age of the phytoplankton in atmospheric CO2 will give rise groups differently. For instance, [9]. Highest Rubisco specificities to an almost three-fold increase in large differences between major are found in the most recently surface water CO2 concentrations phytoplankton groups exist with evolved group of phytoplankton,

13 the diatoms. Progressively lower coccolithophorids, would be ecosystem regulation and values occur in coccolithoph- expected to benefit more from biogeochemical cycling. Diatoms, orids, green algae, dinoflagell- the present increase in atmos- Phaeocystis, and

ates, and the most ancient pheric CO2 compared to the non- coccolithophorids each serve a phytoplankton, the calcifying diatoms and specific role in the marine cyanobacteria. ecosystem and have distinct Recent studies further effects on elemental cycling. indicate that dominant “It is now becoming This is reflected in the phytoplankton species differ ‘functional groups concept’, increasingly clear … that the in their CO2 requirement. in which phytoplankton Whereas some species assumption of a constant taxa are grouped according preferably use CO2 as a to their role in ecological carbon source, others mainly oceanic biosphere in and biogeochemical proc- draw their inorganic carbon assessments of future global esses. One of the most - from the large pool of HCO3 prominent examples of this (e.g. [6]). Also, group- change is no longer viable” is the impact calcifying and

specific differences in CO2 non-calcifying

sensitivity exist with respect phytoplankton have on CO2

to carbon metabolism. Most Phaeocystis. Rising CO2 levels air-sea exchange. While the latter notably, the photosynthetic might therefore increase the drive the organic carbon pump, carbon fixation rates of all contribution of the calcifying which causes a draw-down of

diatom species tested thus far, as phytoplankton to overall pri- CO2 in the surface ocean, the well as of the prymnesiophyte mary production, which would former also contribute to the Phaeocystis globosa, are at or close consequently increase the ratio of calcium carbonate pump, which

to CO2-saturation at present day calcification to organic carbon releases CO2 into the environ-

CO2 levels [4, 5; Rost et al. production in the ocean (Fig. ment (Fig. 2). An increase in the unpubl.]. In contrast, the 1A). Since coccolithophorid ratio of calcium carbonate to coccolithophorids Emiliania blooms predominantly occur in organic carbon in the vertical huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica well-stratified waters, projected flux of biogenic material (the so- are well below saturation at these climate-induced changes in the called ‘rain ratio’), as could result levels [Rost et al. unpubl.; 8]. marine environment may prove from an increased contribution of These findings suggest large even more advantageous for this coccolithophorids to total pri-

differences in CO2-sensitivity group of phytoplankton. mary production, would enhance between major phytoplankton A shift in phytoplankton the relative strength of the

taxonomic groups. CO2-sensitive species composition and succes- carbonate pump. This would in taxa, such as the calcifying sion is likely to impact both turn lower biologically-mediated

CO2 uptake from the atmosphere. A basin-wide shift in the composition of sedimenting particles - seen in a decrease of the opal:carbonate ratio – has in fact been observed across the entire North Atlantic and is suggested to be related to large-scale changes in climatic forcing [1].

Rising atmospheric CO2 may impact the marine biota in yet another form.

CO2-related changes in seawater carbonate chemistry were recently shown to affect marine biogenic calcification. A doubling in present-day atmospheric Figure 2. The biological carbon pumps: Photosynthetic carbon fixation in the surface layer of the flux of organic matter to depth, termed organic carbon pump, generates CO2 concentrations is

a CO2 sink in the ocean. In contrast, calcium carbonate production and its trans- predicted to cause a 20- port to depth, referred to as the calcium carbonate pump, releases CO in the 2 40% reduction in biogenic surface layer. The relative strengths of these two processes largely determine calcification of the pre the biologically-mediated ocean atmosphere CO2 exchange.

14 dominant calcifying organisms - hypothetical at present, and a processes is still in its infancy. It the corals, foraminifera, and CO2-related decrease in biogenic is now becoming increasingly coccolithophorids [2, 7, 8]. A calcification would have oppos- clear, however, that the assump-

CO2-related reduction in calcifi- ing effects on the marine carbon tion of a constant oceanic bio- cation decreases the ratio of cycle. Their net effect on carbon sphere in assessments of future calcification to organic matter cycling will depend on their global change is no longer viable. production (Fig. 1B). With ca. relative importance and sensitiv- Ulf Riebesell 80% of global CaCO3 production ity to global change. Changes in contributed by planktonic marine production and Ingrid Zondervan, organisms, reduced calcification phytoplankton species composi- Björn Rost, decreases the strength of the tion and succession will also calcium carbonate pump and impact other biogeochemical Richard E. Zeebe Alfred Wegener thereby increases the biologi- cycles, such as the nitrogen, opal, Institute for Polar and cally-driven uptake of CO into and sulfur cycles, which in turn 2 Marine Research, the surface ocean [10]. is bound to feedback on the Postfach 12 01 61 As illustrated above, a climate. Despite the potential 27515 Bremerhaven, climate-induced increase in the importance of global change- Germany contribution of coccolithophorids induced biogeochemical feed- to total primary production, back, our understanding of these

References

1. Antia, A.N., Koeve, W., Fischer, G., Blanz, T., Schulz- acclimated to different CO2 concentrations. Limnol. Oceanogr. Bull, D., Scholten, J., Neuer, S., Kremling, K., Kuss, J., 46, 1378-1391. Peinert, R., Hebbeln, D., Bathmann, U., Conte, M., Fehner, 6. Elzenga, J. T., Prins, H. B. A. and Stefels, J. (2000) The role U., Zeitzschel, B. (2001) Basin-wide particulate carbon flux of extracellular carbonic anhydrase activity in inorganic car- in the Atlantic Ocean: regional export patterns and poten- bon utilization of Phaeocystis globosa (Prymnesiophyceae): tial for atmospheric CO sequestration. Global Biogeochem. 2 A comparison with other marine algae using the isotopic dis- Cycles (in press) equilibrium technique. Limnol. Oceanogr. 45, 372-380. 2. Bijma, J., Spero, H.J., Lea, D.W. (1999) Reassessing 7. Kleypas, J.A., Buddemeier, R.W., Archer, D., Gattuso, J.- foraminiferal stable isotope geochemistry: Impact of the P., Langdon, C., Opdyke, B.N. (1999) Geochemical conse- oceanic carbonate system (experimental results). In: Use quences of increased atmospheric CO2 on coral reefs. Sci- of Proxies in Paleoceanography: Examples from the South ence 284, 118-120. Atlantic. G. Fischer & G. Wefer (eds.) Springer Verlag, New 8. Riebesell, U., Zondervan, I. Rost, B., Tortell, P.D., Zeebe, York, 489-512. R.E., Morel, F.M.M. (2000) Reduced calcification in marine 3. Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Le plankton in response to increased atmospheric CO2. Nature Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., Orr, J.C. (2001) Potential 407, 364-367. impact of climate change on marine export production. Glo- 9. Tortell, P.D. (2000) Evolutionary and ecological perspec- bal Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 81-99. tives on carbon acquisition in phytoplankton. Limnol. 4. Burkhardt, S., Zondervan, I., Riebesell, U. (1999) Effect Oceanogr. 45, 744-750. of CO concentration on the C:N:P ratio in marine 2 10. Zondervan, I. Zeebe, R.E., Rost, B., Riebesell, U. (2001) phytoplankton: A species comparison. Limnol. Oceanog. 44, Decreasing marine biogenic calcification: a negative feed- 683-690. back on rising atmospheric pCO2. Global Biogeochem. Cy- 5. Burkhardt, S., Amoroso, G., Riebesell, U., Sültemeyer, cles 15, 507-516. - D. (2001) CO2 and HCO3 uptake in marine diatoms

Conference Newsletter Highlights from the Challenge of a Changing Earth Open Science Conference were made available each day in a daily Newsletter. These 4 to 6 page Newsletters written by global change students can be downloaded in PDF format from the conference web site. www.sciconf.igbp.kva.se 15 Media at the Open Science Conference The Open Science Conference attracted significant media attention, with 55 reporters attending the conference and many others reporting from a distance, resulting in at least 120 media “hits”. Although most reporters who attended were local journalists or foreign correspondents, a comprehensive web-based “Media Room” enabled journalists from all over the world to cover the conference regardless of their location. Reporters from News Agencies such as Reuters, Associated Press and Dutch, German and French Press Agencies also ensured global coverage. A preliminary analysis of coverage by topic and country is presented in the charts below. A more detailed analysis is underway and will be presented in the December issue of the Newsletter.

Feedback from the media “I felt it was an extremely useful and well-organised conference, which provoked considerable interest from BBC radio news programmes both in the UK and in the World Service. The press brief- ings were all very informative and gave excellent access to leading figures in the field. To some extent the coincidence of its timing just before the Bonn Climate Change Conference helped to raise the profile of the event, but the stories which did emerge in Amsterdam would have been of interest in their own right. Much of the detailed science was beyond the reach of mainstream news programmes but I have no criticism of that. My only slight gripe would be that the working space for journalists was rather cramped — more room next time please!” Tim Hirsch, Environment Correspondent, BBC News

“If I have any suggestion to make, it would be to have a larger pressroom, and a closed-circuit TV to relay speeches and details of meetings. …I much appreciate the way you and your colleagues helped me so enthusiastically with other, smaller hitches.” Richard Ingham, Science and Environment Reporter, Agence France-Presse (AFP)

“I just want to say that, as a reporter, I find that your website [OSC ‘Media Room’] is very well organized! Bravo.” Chantal Srivastava, Reporter, Radio-Canada 16 Science from the parallel sessions: Understanding Land Use Change

the expense of forests), while Land cover change over the last three pasture area expanded from 4-5 million km2 in 1700 to 31-33 centuries due to human activities million km2 in 1990 (mostly at the by N. Ramankutty, K. K. Goldewijk, R. Leemans, J. Foley expense of grasslands). A data set and F. Oldfieldc of global potential natural vegetation has also been created. By overlaying the agricultural land data sets over the potential The recognition of global human impact on the environment is not a vegetation data set, the change in recent idea. As early as 1864, Marsh [1] recognized the deleterious extent of natural vegetation types consequences of human activity on the Earth’s landscape. More has also been estimated. Major recently, Thomas [2] lent further credence to the notion that one of differences in the two data sets can the most obvious global changes in the last three centuries has be explained by the use of differ- been the direct human modification and conversion of land cover. ent land use classifications, calibration techniques, and Turner et al. [3] made an excellent documentation of some of these inventory datasets. historical changes. Simultaneous with the devel- Recently, efforts have been made modeling community especially opment of these land use data sets, to quantify the nature and extent needs global land use data sets in the demand for global land use of these changes at a global scale. a geographically-explicit format, databases also emerged in the Richards [4] estimated that over with regular time slices. IGBP community. IGBP/IHDP- the last 3 centuries, the total Two separate efforts have LUCC and IGBP-PAGES came global area of forests and wood- recently emerged in the recon- together to take up the challenge lands diminished by 12 million struction of historical land use of providing the global change km2 (19%), grasslands and databases, one based at the community with historical land pastures declined by 5.6 million National Institute of Public use data sets. PAGES, having km2 (8%, but many grasslands Health and the Environment participated in the BIOME 6000 have been converted to pastures), (RIVM) in the Netherlands, and project, has experience with and croplands increased by 12 the other at the University of historical reconstructions for 6000 million km2 (466%). Such large Wisconsin-Madison in the U.S.A. years before present. A new joint changes in land cover can have [13-16]. These two efforts used PAGES-LUCC initiative, labeled important consequences such as historical statistical inventories BIOME 300, was created to recon- significant changes in regional on agricultural land (e.g. census struct historical land use/land and global climate (e.g., [5-7]), data, tax records, land surveys, cover data sets for the last 300 modification of the global cycles historical geography estimates, years (1700 to 2000), with coarse of carbon, nitrogen, and water [8- etc) and applied different spatial time slices in the past (50-100 10] and increased rates of extinc- analysis techniques to recon- years) and finer time slices in the tion and biological invasion [10]. struct land cover change due to later periods (10-25 years). A Despite the recognition of the land use for the magnitude and impact of global last 300 years scale changes in land use and (e.g., Figure 1). In land cover, there have been particular, the relatively few comprehensive data sets focused studies of these changes. Several on reconstructing continental-to-regional scale land the historical use data sets have been com- expansion of piled. For example, Houghton cropland and [11] presents land use data for pasture areas. nine continental-scale regions of The data sets the world. Richards and Flint indicate that [12] have compiled a very cropland areas comprehensive land use data- expanded from base for South and Southeast 3-4 million km2 Figure 1. An example of the historical land use data set included in the CD-ROM. This figure shows snapshots Asia. Unfortunately, these in 1700 to 15–18 of global cropland areas from 1700 to 1090. The databases are not very useful for million km2 in general pattern of crop cover change reflects the spatially-explicit modeling. The 1990 (mostly at history of human civilisations as well as the patterns of economic development and European development.

17 cisco in December 2000, prelimi- tion: 1) census data on land use nary versions of the fast-track and land cover; 2) historical maps land use product were reviewed of land use and land cover; 3) and plans were made to release participation of agricultural the final product at the IGBP geographers and historians who Open Science Conference in might be able to critically evalu- Amsterdam in July 2001. ate the land use data products; 4) At the IGBP Conference in significant events information Amsterdam, in a parallel session (e.g. timing of European settle- chaired by Rik Leemans titled ment, expansion of cultivation “Understanding Land-Use into the New Lands region of the Changes to reconstruct, describe Former Soviet Union initiated by or predict changes in land cover”, Khrushchev in 1954, etc.). Klein Goldewijk and Ramankutty Figure 2. Data set released on a CD.ROM presented their fast-track land use Navin Ramankutty and products. They discussed the Jon Foley group of roughly 40 researchers, background for their data set Center for Sustainability and the covering different disciplines and development, the different Global Environment (SAGE), 1225 W. Dayton Street, Room 1325 approaches, came together in approaches used, and invited Bern in March 2000 at the first University of Wisconsin participation from the larger Madison, WI Ð 53706 BIOME 300 workshop [17]. global change community in their U.S.A. Preliminary RIVM and SAGE continued efforts. The data set E-mail: [email protected] land use datasets were presented was also released on a CD-ROM E-mail: [email protected] at this workshop and discussed. (Fig. 2). The data sets are avail- Several limitations were identi- Kees Klein Goldewijk and able at a spatial resolution of 0.5 Rik Leemans fied in these products, and degree in latitude and longitude, National Institute of Public Health recommendations were made to and at an annual resolution and the Environment (RIVM), fix them. This led to the idea of (SAGE database) or decadal/ P.O. Box 1 creating a “fast-track” land use multi-decadal resolution (RIVM 3720 BA Bilthoven data product, with the effort to be database), from 1700-1992. The Netherlands led by Klein Goldewijk and At another parallel session in E-mail: [email protected] Ramankutty. This fast-track the IGBP Conference on the E-mail: [email protected] product would give the global “Global Carbon Cycle”, chaired Frank Oldfield change community a preliminary by Martin Heimann and Mike 39 Caldy Rd, West Kirby, product to use in their current Raupach, Ramankutty illustrated Wirral, LH48 2HF, studies. the use of the global land use data United Kingdom Over the next several months, in biogeochemical cycle E-mail: [email protected] Klein Goldewijk and Ramankutty modeling. In particular, he revised their land use databases presented results from four To order the BIOME 300 fast- based on the recommendations terrestrial ecosystem model track land use data CD-ROM, from the Bern meeting. Rather simulations over the last century please contact Kees Klein than create a unified data prod- of the net carbon emissions due to Goldewijk or Navin uct, the researchers decided to the establishment and abandon- Ramankutty. The following maintain two separate efforts, and ment of cultivated land [18]. variables can be found on the offer the community two different Over the 1920-1992 period, the CD-ROM: products. At this stage, the SAGE models simulated net emissions product offers a continuous of 56-91 Gt-C due to cropland Data on the CD-ROM fractional data set of land use (i.e., change. RIVM the fraction of each grid cell in Klein Goldewijk and cultivation is described), while Ramankutty plan to continue 1. Human Population the RIVM data set offers a improving their historic land use density Boolean version (each grid cell is data sets. They request and 2. Land use (croplands, entirely in a single land cover welcome the participation of the pastures, other natu- type). These different versions global change community in this ral vegetation types) are appropriate for different effort as scientists in different modeling applications depending parts of the world might have SAGE on the model’s ability to handle access to data and information 1. Historical Croplands subgrid scale landscape heteroge- that they might be willing to neity. At the American Geophysi- share. In particular, they request 2. Potential vegetation cal Union meeting in San Fran- the following kinds of informa-

18 References 1. Marsh, G.P. 1864. Man and Nature. Charles Scribner, 11. Houghton, R.A. 1999. The annual net flux of carbon to New York. the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850-1990. Tellus 2. Thomas Jr., W.L. 1956. Man’s role in changing the face 51B, 298-313. of the Earth. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. 12. Richards, J.F. and Flint, E.P. 1994. Historic land use and 3. Turner, B.L., Clark, W.C., Kates, R.W., Richards, J.F., carbon estimates for south and southeast Asia: 1880-1980. Mathews, J.T. and Meyer, W.B. (eds.). 1990. The Earth as Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge Na- transformed by human action. Cambridge Univ. Press, New tional Laboratory, Numerical Data Package-046, Oak Ridge, York, 713 pp. TN. 4. Richards, J.F. 1990. Land transformation. In: The Earth 13. Klein Goldewijk, C.G.M. and Battjes, J.J. 1997. A hun- as Transformed by Human Action. al., B.L.T.e. (ed.) Cam- dred year (1890 - 1990) database for integrated environmen- bridge Univ. Press, New York, pp. 163-178. tal assessments (HYDE, version 1.1). National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The 5. Bonan, G.B. 1999. Frost followed the plow: impacts of Netherlands. deforestation on the climate of the United States. Ecologi- cal Applications 9, 1305-1315. 14. Klein Goldewijk, K. 2000. Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE database. Global 6. Copeland, J.H., Pielke, R.A. and Kittel, T.G.F. 1995. Biogeochemical Cycles 15, 417-434. Potential climate impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study. Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 15. Ramankutty, N. and Foley, J.A. 1998. Characterizing pat- 7409-7418. terns of global land use: An analysis of global croplands data. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 12, 667-685. 7. Dickinson, R.E. and Henderson-Sellers, A. 1988. Modeling tropical deforestation: a study of GCM land-sur- 16. Ramankutty, N. and Foley, J.A. 1999. Estimating histori- face parameterizations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Me- cal changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to teorological Society 114, 439-462. 1992. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13, 997-1027. 8. Houghton, R.A., Hobbie, J.E., Melillo, J.M., Moore, B., 17. Leemans, R., Goldewijk, K.K. and Oldfield, F. 2000. De- Peterson, B.J., Shaver, G.R. and Woodwell, G.M. 1983. veloping a fast-track global database of land-cover history. Changes in the carbon content of terrestrial biota and soils LUCC Newsletter No. 5, 6-7.

between 1860 and 1980: a net release of CO2 to the at- 18. McGuire, A.D., Sitch, S., Clein, J.S., Dargaville, R., Esser, mosphere. Ecological Monongraphs 53, 235-262. G., Foley, J., Heimann, M., Joos, F., Kaplan, J., Kicklighter, 9. Postel, S.L., Daily, G.C. and Ehrlich, P.R. 1996. Human D.W., Meier, R.A., Melillo, J.M., III, B.M., Prentice, I.C., appropriation of renewable fresh water. Science 271, 785- Ramankutty, N., Reichenau, T., Schloss, A., Tian, H., Williams, 788. L.J. and Wittenberg, U. 2001. Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, 10. Vitousek, P.M., Mooney, H.A., Lubchenco, J. and J.M. climate and land-use effects with four process-based eco- Melillo. 1997. Human domination of Earth’s ecosystems. system models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15, 183-206. Science 277, 494-499.

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19 Science from the parallel sessions: Putting People into the Earth System: Victims or Villains?

to denote the ways that phenom- How and why people and institutions ena appear differently when matter beyond economy: observed at different scales of analysis. People and trees in Madagascar This case study illustrates the W. McConnell issues encountered in tracing the relationship between population “pressure” and land use dynamics, and to the ways that institu- Land use and cover change is one of the most important aspects of tional factors mediate this human impact on the earth, playing key roles in carbon cycling relationship at different spatial through the emission of greenhouse gasses, and affecting hydro- and temporal levels. The term logical processes and other earth system processes. The impor- institutions is used here to refer to tance of understanding these impacts was recognized by the the laws, regulations, rules and norms that shape social behavior, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the Interna- with particular emphasis on tional Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental access to land and the rights to Change in the creation of a joint core project on Land Use and use land-based resources. Cover Change (LUCC) [1]. While closely related, the terms land use Madagascar’s privileged and land cover refer to quite distinct things: while land cover refers biodiversity “hotspot” status to the biophysical attributes of the earth’s surface, land use refers to stems from two facts: its long the activities undertaken in a place including the motivation for, and separation from the African mediating factors shaping, those actions. mainland (about one hundred million years) leading to high The scalar dynamics of views have emerged, however, biological endemism; and the land use and cover which either ascribe degradation short duration of human occupa- to forces other than population tion (less than two millennia). change in Madagascar growth, or find the country’s Through most of the 20th Cen- Madagascar is a global forests expanding rapidly near tury, observers largely took for biodiversity “hotspot”, prompt- major population centers. granted a causal linkage between ing international biodiversity Population growth can be seen to population “pressure” and conservation efforts based upon lead to deforestation in one case, deforestation: while the human the “population pressure-on- while in another it leads to population grew to over ten resources” thesis, which holds afforestation. This may be a million, what was presumed to that rapid demographic growth product of the scalar dynamics of be the near complete forest cover has caused widespread environ- the relationship in question. The of the island was reduced to mental degradation. Alternative term scalar dynamics was coined meager vestiges along the steep eastern escarpment, leaving the central plateau and most of the western portions of the island covered in poor grasslands. This thesis was bolstered by a very influential spatially-explicit study published in Science in 1990 [2]. The study compared forest cover change measured through the analysis of satellite imagery with population density, concluding that deforestation had been most rapid in areas of high population density. This analysis formed the cornerstone Two aerial photographs illustrate a dramatic increase in woody biomass in the last half of biodiversity conservation of the 20th century in Alaska, on Madagascar’s central plateau. In the earlier photo- efforts based unequivocally upon graph, from 1957, the hills around the village rice paddies are covered in grass, with the fundamental understanding only small patches of trees. that: By 19991, much of the landscape is covered in trees, especially hilltops and the steep slopes of the rivers cut bank. (The photographs show an area about 2 km x 2 km) more people => less trees.

20 individual landscapes can adaptation of afforestation reverse the relationship germplasm and techniques, were once again. Comparing visible. At such fine levels of land cover dynamics in analysis, it is possible to see how the vicinity of villages local institutions shape the land along the upper (western) use patterns. For example, in edge of the escarpment most parts of the country, burial forest, for example, tombs are used, and often the shows forest cover adjacent lands are protected by conversion to be directly covenants that stipulate the proportional to village conditions under which these The eucalyptus forest extending to the east of Madagas- population, a relationship “ancestral domains” may be car’s capital, Antananarivo, has been estimated at over 100.00ha, and is said to supply the city with over half of its made even stronger when farmed. These and other aspects fuel wood needs. the relative “pressure” of of local tenure systems, such as neighboring villages is the borrowing of land, affect the As the two main variables are accounted for [5]: spatial and temporal dynamics of land use at the local level. disaggregated, however, the more people => less trees. relationship becomes less clear. In the temporal domain, it Scalar Dynamics has been shown that and Institutions factors other than simple At the coarsest level of demographic growth share analysis, deforestation in much of the responsibility Madagascar is clearly for deforestation during linked to the growth of the certain periods, including population from the initial the exodus of highland settlers to well over 10 populations into the forest million. At regional levels during the consolidation of of analysis, however, the the Merina Monarchy relation between forest around 1800 [3], and the cover and population is felling of huge numbers of quite sensitive to temporal trees under French colonial Aforestation of hilltops has become quite widespread in and spatial aggregation – rule a hundred years later, the highlands, largely with exotic pine species, providing differentiating particular when population growth for local fuel wood and construction needs. periods or retaining may have been quite low, detailed population or even negative [4]. Similarly, Shifting the lens to focus on density classes makes the rela- disaggregating the population rural highland landscapes which tionship appear very different. density classes used in the have been cultivated for centu- Distinct period effects appear to Science study also weakens the ries, however, recent studies account for much of the temporal relationship – differentiating the suggest that population growth and spatial patterns of forest very dense population centers of has led to the propagation of cover change, especially attempts the highlands (containing about woody species, both for fuel and to control land use practices on a third of the island’s population) construction needs, as well as for the part of the Merina Monarchy, shows deforestation to have fruits and other non-timber the French colonial authorities, occurred in the moderately- forest products [6]: populated regions along the more people => more forest’s edge. In carrying out trees. regional analyses, taking into account the afforestation that has Meanwhile, along the taken place around the capital, country’s two rail lines Antananarivo, and other major dramatic impacts of urban centers, the opposite colonial infrastructure on relationship is much more forest cover dynamics, plausible: including the influx of population related to the more people => more supply of (involuntary) trees. labor, the removal and later Taking the disaggregation a replacement of forest cover step further to analyze the along the rail lines, and relationship at the level of subsequent diffusion and Every year, part of Madagascar’s rainforest is felled to make way for crops. Hillsides are planted in rain fed rice and other crops, while bottomlands are developed into rice paddies.

21 and the independent Malagasy Is it all just too including protected areas, Republics. The flight of highland complex? afforestation programs, and populations into the forests of traditional ancestral domains. the upper escarpment and the The simple conclusion from such Furthermore, we have construction of the railroad are analysis is that land use dynam- learned that factors do NOT key examples of institutional ics are just very complex. But aggregate across levels in any factors that shape spatial and such a reaction is not warranted. simple way - one cannot under- temporal forest cover dynamics. While we are unlikely to arrive at stand the regional dynamics by The relationship is also sensitive a general theory of land use simply summing up effects of to another spatial effect – the dynamics that accurately pre- traditional land management delineation of the area of interest. dicts land cover outcomes in institutions, any more than one The inclusion or exclusion of specific cases, we have learned can simply disaggregate the major population centers has a quite a bit about the key factors regional political-economic dramatic effect on the observed that explain most cases. Meta- forces by assuming that they relationship between population analysis of case studies is yield- play out equally across space. density and forest cover dynam- ing insights into regional trends Perhaps the greatest mistake is to ics. At local levels of analysis, that provide typologies and take prima facie evidence for the simple demographic growth testable hypotheses of landscape culpability of simple demo- appears to explain much of the trajectories [7]. Meanwhile, social graphic growth at the broadest dynamics observed, though science theory concerning and finest levels and stop at that, social institutions at the village institutional dynamics has made having discovered the proximate level have profound effects on major strides in recent years – for and ultimate causes to be one the spatial patterns produced. example, in the realm of land and the same. Rather, the search Thus, there is no way to tenure, the simple dichotomy must be for solutions that bear understand the relation between between private and common replication. Fortunately in people and trees without close property has evolved to a more Madagascar, as elsewhere, attention to institutions, and nuanced understanding of the development project managers accounting for these factors key dimensions of tenure, such are becoming more aware of requires an expansion of socio- as the degree to which the these scalar dynamics, and more economic analysis beyond the resources in question are attuned to the institutional traditional framework of neo- subtractable (one person’s use dimensions of land use dynam- classical economics. The disloca- diminishes the resource) and ics. tion of large numbers of people excludable (users can be ex- into forested landscapes is poorly cluded) [8]. We know that the William McConnell LUCC Focus 1 Science Office explained as a response to “tragedy of the commons” [9] is not inevitable - rather, there are Indiana University “market signals”, whether they Bloomington, USA examples of local, regional and are fleeing Merina or French E-mail: [email protected] hegemony; both events involved national institutional arrange- the use of overwhelming force to ments that successfully accom- achieve political aims. plish land management goals,

References 1. Land Use and Cover Change Project homepage: http:// 6. Kull, Christian A. 1998. Leimavo Revisited: Agrarian Land- www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/lucc.html Use Change in the Highlands of Madagascar. Professional 2. Green, Glen M. and Robert W. Sussman. 1990. Defor- Geographer. 50(2):163-176 estation History of the Eastern Rainforests of Madagascar 7. Geist, Helmut J. and Lambin, Eric F. 2001. What Drives from Satellite Images. Science 1990(248):212-215 Tropical Deforestation?: A meta-analysis of proximate and 3. Coulaud, D. 1973. Les Zafimaniry: un group ethique de underlying causes of deforestation based on subnational case Madagascar ‡ la poursuite de la forêt. Fanotamboky Mala- study evidence. LUCC Report Series No. 4. LUCC IPO; gasy; Antananarivo, Madagascar. Belgium. 4. Jarosz, Lucy. 1996. “Defining Deforestation in Madagas- 8. Gibson, C., M. McKean and E. Ostrom (eds.). 2000. Peo- car”. In: Liberation Ecologies: Environment, Development, ple and Forests: Communities, Institutions and Governance. Social Movements. Richard Peet and Michael Watts (edi- The MIT Press: Cambridge, MA. tors). Routledge; New York. 9. Hardin, Garrett. 1968. The Tragedy of the Commons. Sci- 5. McConnell, William J. 2000. Human Environment Rela- ence. 1962:1243-1248 tions in Madagascar: The importance of spatial and temporal perspective. PhD Dissertation. Clark University, Worces- ter, MA.

22 Student Poster Awards There were 8 winners in the student poster awards at the Open Science Conference. Winning posters were selected for the quality of their overall design, illustrations, scientific context and accessibility to a broad audience. Here we present 4 of the 8 winning posters, the remaining 4 to be featured in the December edition of the Newsletter.

23 24 25 26 (see Figure 1). Agents and their Environment The appealing of patterns of Syndromes of land-use change in civilization-nature interaction raises some intriguing questions: developing countries How can patterns be specified or by G. Petschel-Held “discovered”? How to model them? What to learn from this kind of analysis? The example presented here is dealing with Human induced changes in the Earth System are starting to en- aspects of land-use changes in close all scales, from the global to the local, yet the local actor developing countries and has to plays a key role, both in terms of proximate causes and conse- be considered as work in progress. quences. The analysis of the social and natural situations, options, It will demonstrate a qualitative and possible futures of people in their respective environment is modeling technique which hindered by the huge variety of localities throughout the world. This operationalizes the idea of functional similarity by utilizing sets variety is extensively documented in numerous case studies. There of ordinary differential equations. are recent efforts to scrutinize case studies in order to attain better These sets are defined by insights into the nature of environmental changes, e.g. the recent monotonicity properties, e.g. two Land Use and Cover Change International Project Office (LUCC- functions are considered to belong IPO) analysis of tropical deforestation. to the same set if in both functions Within the work presented here, case studies can be grouped into the dependent variable increases if it is suggested that the interac- ensembles of similar processes, the independent variable is tions between civilization and embedded into similar (dynamic) increasing. The QSIM-algorithm, nature can be clustered into constraints of larger-scale, even developed by Ben Kuipers from typical patterns. This implies that global, earth-system properties the University of Texas, Austin,

Figure 1. Grouping of case studies and Earth-System properties into typical functional patterns.

27 growth. In contrast, the fact that population growth itself affects the Income relative to basic needs allows the Malthusian type of outcome, i.e. a limited carrying capacity inevitably deteriorates living conditions. Within the framework of the model, local agricultural decision making (ADM) comprises the two aspects of labor allocation. There is a long ongoing debate Figure 2. “Wiring diagram” of the qualitative model of smallholder agriculture. about rationalities and objectives of ADM, which consider, for example, economic rationality, uses these relations as con- factor of the agricultural produc- i.e. the smallholder family straints. It allows all dynamic tion function and has negative optimizes its utility, or risk behaviors in which the directions impact on the change (dotted averting strategies by diversifica- of change share these properties. area) of the Quality of Resources, tion. As long as only the summa- Taking the example of a monoto- i.e. it induces an environmental tion rules depicted in Figure 2 nously increasing relation, this degradation. In contrast, the are taken into account, no produces, e.g., behaviors in second type of agricultural labor decision-making rationale is which both variables are increas- is assumed to have solely a implemented. This openness ing, then simultaneously reach positive impact on the change of would allow a vastness of an extremum and decrease or resource quality, but no direct behaviors, which makes the increase again afterwards. The yield effect. identification of patterns difficult “or” indicates that the modeling It is obvious that this scheme and hardly helpful. We therefore technique produces a set of of impact of human activities is have implemented simple dynamic behaviors instead of a by no means applicable to all allocation rules: off-farm labor is single solution as conventional situations of smallholder land- increased if it is more productive modeling does. This set of use, but the qualitative character than agriculture, corresponding possible behaviors again corre- of the relations implies also that to a bias towards agriculture. sponds to a cluster of case it should be applicable to more Secondly, conservation oriented studies: Different stories from than one situation. The interme- labor is not increased if either the different case studies can be diate generality of the cause- resource quality is enhancing generated by a single qualitative effect scheme thus represents the anyway or if the income per model [3]. first level of pattern formaliza- capita falls below a certain level. The “wiring diagram” of the tion. The global and regional In qualitative terms, it is suffi- exemplary qualitative model of context, both in terms of natural cient to assume a “certain level” smallholder agriculture in fragile as well as social conditions, e.g. to exist. It is not necessary to ecosystems in developing climate, societal and economic know its actual level in terms of countries is presented in Figure stratification, etc., determines the numbers, which would be 2. The Available Labor is a mo- actual regions where it should be different in different contexts. notonously increasing function valid. The analysis of the poten- How to validate a qualitative (M+) of the population, which is tial regions for a particular model or, more adequately, how increasing within the experi- pattern is based on data and to specify which cases are ments described in the following. model results and yields, what represented by the correspond- Labor can be allocated into Off- we call, the disposition [2, 4]. ing functional pattern? Besides farm Activities and Agricultural The graph of the remaining the comparison of the qualitative Labor, which in turn can be parts of the model is self-explain- properties of the relation be- divided into Yield Oriented or ing, if we take the symbols ø and tween variables, the validation Conservation oriented labor. Each ⊗ to mean qualitative division uses the story each case study allocation is constrained by a and multiplication, respectively. tells. When analyzing studies on qualitative addition ⊕ which We underline that agricultural smallholder agriculture, how- allows changes in signs of the technology is taken as a further ever, one can identify a few, variables as in the usual addi- production factor and is assumed typical stories, which we call tion, e.g. if both “independent” to be increasing. This relates to stylized narratives. Kates and variables increase, their sum is Boserup’s argument of an Haarman [1], for example, have increasing as well, etc. Yield increasing technological identified three types of poverty Oriented labor constitutes one effectivity induced by population induced environmental degrada

28 tion: the well-known impover- and allow preservation of natural change of the five relevant ishment -degradation spiral and resources. Yet constellations arise variables (wage labor, agricul- cases of degradation induced which inevitably lead to deterio- tural intensification, soil degra- either by division of land or by rating environmental conditions dation, agricultural yield and displacement. In another stylized and diminishing incomes. We rural poverty) are analyzed. narrative to be found in the call such an unsustainable Figure 3 depicts the result, where literature increasing off-farm constellation a syndrome. Such a “-n” means that the direction of activities reduces the work situation arises when no off-farm changes of n variables differs available for conservation. In alternatives are available, the from the unsustainable constella- many of these cases this leads to rate of technological progress is tion, i.e. in red one identifies significant environmental decreasing, and impoverishment regions where the syndrome is degradation, sometimes stimu- occurs. It is important to note active. lating diminishing returns. that the inevitability happens It has to be stressed again that The question of validation is: though technological efficiency the present model represents Does the model tell the stylized increases. Yet, the increase in soil work in progress. Yet the results narratives? Leaving out the degradation might only be indicate that this kind of syn- technical representation of the compensated if this efficiency drome analysis might be a results, we state that this is the grows with an increasing rate or, powerful method for the identifi- case for the spiral and the off- in other words, only in this case cation of barriers against farm induced degradation Boserup’s argument for the non- sustainability and thus for, what narratives, but not yet for the existence of a carrying capacity is now called, sustainability division and displacement cases. might hold. science. The next question is: what to Finally, we might ask: can we Gerhard Petschel-Held learn from this qualitative identify regions of the world that Potsdam Institute for Climate model? It turns out that the are already characterized by the Impact Research, model produces “good” stories, unsustainable constellation or at Potsdam, Germany e.g. off-farm activities are paid least close to it? Using data from E-mail: [email protected] well enough to increase incomes the early 1990s the direction of

Figure 3. Geographical distribution of regions with unsustainable constellations of smallholder agriculture (see text).

References 1. Kates, Robert W., and V. Haarman. 1992. Where the Poor 3. Petschel-Held, Gerhard and Matthias K.B. Lüdeke. 2001. Inte- live: Are the assumptions correct? Environment 34:4-11,25-28. grating Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative 2. Petschel-Held, Gerhard et al. 1999. Syndromes of Global Differential Equations. Integrated Assessment in press. Change - A qualitative modelling approach to Assist Global En- 4. Schellnhuber, Hans-Joachim et al. 1997. Syndromes of Global vironmental Management. Environmental Modeling and Assess- Change. GAIA 6 (1):19-34. ment 4 (4):295-314.

29 Science from the parallel sessions: El Niño Southern Oscillation in the context of past and future climate variability

die-back is a reduction in precipi- Climate change in the Tropical Pacific: tation over the Amazon region caused by a shift in atmospheric Understanding and quantifying circulation and corresponding uncertainties precipitation patterns associated by M. Collins with, again, a shift towards more El Nino like mean conditions in their model. Understanding the climate of The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well know modulator the Tropical Pacific is a complex of global climate on seasonal to interannual time scales. The quasi- problem because of the tight period warming and cooling of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in coupling of the ocean and the eastern Tropical Pacific, and corresponding shifts in atmos- atmosphere in the region. Cou- pheric pressure and precipitation patterns, cause climatic variations pled ocean-atmosphere global both locally and via teleconnection patterns to remote areas. These circulation models (AOGCMs), short-term climate variations have significant impacts on ecology, which are now the principal tools for global change studies, show society and economics. What role then does the Tropical Pacific large differences in their predic- play in the global change problem? tions for Tropical Pacific climate There are an increasing number event the Tropical Atlantic Ocean change [6]. We can begin by of studies of climate and environ- becomes more salty through a examining two models for mental change that point to the combination of changes in changes in the mean climate and Tropical Pacific as an important evaporation, precipitation and changes in the ENSO cycle. modulator of the global climate river run-off. In both the Latif et Collins [2], using version 2 of system. The studies of Latif et al. al. [9] and Thorpe et al. [10] the Hadley Centre Coupled studies the climate models Model (HadCM2), found that at produce a climate change four times pre-industrial levels of CO ENSO events became larger “How … can we resolve towards more El Nino like 2 mean conditions in the in amplitude and more frequent uncertainties in climate Tropical Pacific and this than present day ENSO events. change in the Tropical Pacific results in changes to the Thus in addition to the impacts freshwater cycle which of climate change, the impacts of (and indeed globally) if models cause a more salty Tropical ENSO events would be felt more are highly sensitive to small Atlantic ocean and thus often and with greater magni- limits THC slow down. tude. Using version 3 of the changes the parameters of The work of Cox et al. Hadley Model (HadCM3) Collins their physical schemes?” [5] also points to an impor- [3] found that magnitude and tant role for the Tropical frequency of ENSO events Pacific in global climate remained unchanged as green- change. In their study they house gases increased, contra- [9] and Thorpe et al. [10] both include representations of the dicting the results of the earlier examine the potential for a terrestrial and marine carbon study and highlighting a level of reduction in the strength of the cycles in a global climate model uncertainty. This range of uncer- North Atlantic Ocean and find a positive feedback in tainty in the future of ENSO is Thermohaline Circulation (THC) which the terrestrial biosphere further widened when one as greenhouse gases increase. can flip from being a carbon sink examines the responses of other They find that the rate of the to a carbon source. The corre- AOGCMs [6]. reduction in strength (and hence sponding increase in atmos- The difference in the ENSO response to global warming in the potential for a permanent pheric CO2 amplifies the rate of shut-down) is controlled by the global warming in the model HadCM2 and HadCM3 was advection of salty water from considerably. One of the major found by Collins [3] to be due to lower latitudes - the saltier the components of the flip is a die- differences in the response of the Tropical Atlantic ocean, the back of the Amazonian rain mean climate of the two models smaller the reduction in THC forest during the middle 21st in the Tropical Pacific region. strength. During an El Nino century. A possible cause of this HadCM2 produced a pro- nounced broad maximum in SST warming on the equator while

30 HadCM3 had a more confined cal parametrisations of cloud system and it appears that even maximum and a change in the formation and the representation small perturbations to the south-north SST gradient (see of atmospheric boundary layer parameters of cloud models can figure). Forcing HadCM3 with processes between HadCM2 and cause non-linear and far-reaching the pattern of mean SST warm- HadCM3 and found that rather differences in global climate ing from HadCM2 caused the small changes to these schemes change. HadCM3 ENSO cycle to Knowledge of the param- amplify and to become more eters of model physical frequent, much like the “One fossilised coral schemes (particularly those HadCM2 ENSO response. associated with clouds) may Hence differences in the suggests that ENSO be ultimately limited by models mean pattern of SST variability may have been observational errors or by change caused differences in uncertainties in parameters, the response of ENSO to very much weaker (and which have no observable climate change. perhaps even non-existent) counterparts. How then can But what caused the we resolve uncertainties in differences in the pattern of around 6.5 thousand years climate change in the Tropical mean climate change ago, at a time when global Pacific (and indeed globally) between HadCM2 and if models are highly sensitive HadCM3? HadCM3 has a climate was not greatly to small changes the param- higher resolution oceanic different from that of today” eters of their physical component than does schemes? There are two HadCM2 and does not methodologies we can adopt require a “flux-adjustment” to understand and quantify term to control climate drift [see could combine in a non-linear uncertainties in global climate 7 and 8 for details of the models]. way to produce the large differ- change: Palaeoclimate studies It would be tempting to attribute ences in the patterns of cloud, and mega-ensembles of the differences in mean climate precipitation and SST change in AOGCMs. response to these features. The the two models (see figure). Tudhope et al. [11] have reason is much more subtle than Cloud feedbacks are among the collected and analysed fossilised this, however. Williams et al. [12] most important and most com- corals from the Western Tropical examined changes in the physi- plex of feedbacks in the climate Pacific. These corals provide

Figure1. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and precipitation changes at 4xCO2 from two coupled ocean-atmosphere global circulation models. (a) SST change from version 2 of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM2), (b) SST change from version 3 of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3), (c) precipitation change from HadCM2 and (d) precipitation change from HadCM3. The differences in the patterns of climate change between the two models are caused by subtle changes in the physical representations of clouds and these differences in mean climate also lead to very different behaviour of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in a globally warm world [see the text and 3 and 12 for more details].

31 windows of ENSO variability in dimensions of several hundreds produce a climate change predic- periods of history back 130,000 of kilometres [see e.g. 4]. One tion with a combination of years. One fossilised coral possible future development parameter perturbations, and the suggests that ENSO variability would be to include models of PDF could be made. The may have been very much coral growth within the climateprediction.com project is weaker (and perhaps even non- AOGCMs themselves. now underway - more details are existent) around 6.5 thousand A brute-force method of available from years ago, at a time when global quantifying uncertainty in www.climateprediction.com. climate was not greatly different AOGCM estimates of climate It appears that, just as the change is to systematically Tropical Pacific is an important explore all the parameters of modulator of global climate on “…just as the Tropical Pacific the model physical schemes seasonal and interannual time is an important modulator of and map the potential scales, it also plays an important climate change. This would role in the global climate change global climate on seasonal allow the construction of the problem. The coupled AOGCMs and interannual time scales, probability density function currently show a wide range of (PDF) of future climate possible changes in both the it also plays an important role scenarios for use by policy mean and the ENSO variability in the global climate change makers. Because of the in the region and hence there is a complexity of AOGCMs and large degree of uncertainty both problem” because of potential non- in local and in global human- linear interactions between induced climate change. It is the parametrisation schemes hoped that future palaeoclimate from that of today. AOGCMs can (recall the Williams et al. [12] studies and mega-ensemble be forced with boundary condi- study) this requires many approaches will help in under- tions from different epochs and thousands and perhaps millions standing and quantifying these validated using the palaeo of AOGCM simulations. Such a uncertainties. record. Given the sensitivities of study is beyond the capacity of Matthew Collins, AOGCMs, the validation process the world’s current Centre for Global needs to be quantitative and this supercomputer resource. A novel Atmospheric Modelling, requires careful use of both the solution was suggested by Allen Department of Meteorology, palaeo proxies, which are indi- [1] who proposed that if the University of Reading, rect measures of climate, and the AOGCM could be run on a Reading, RG6 6BB, UK. model that simulates climate in Personal Computer then mem- E-mail: [email protected] large-scale grid-boxes with bers of the public could each

References 1. Allen, M. R. (1999): Do-it-yourself climate prediction, Na- port in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model with- ture, 401, 642. out flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 16, 147-168. 2. Collins, M. (2000a): The El-Nino Southern Oscillation in 8. Johns, T. C., Carnell, R. E., Crossley, J. F., Gregory, J. M., the second Hadley Centre coupled model and its response Mitchell, J. F. B., Senior, C. A., Tett, S. F. B. and Wood, R. A. to greenhouse warming. J. Climate, vol 13(7), 1299-1312. (1997): The Second Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmos- 3. Collins, M. (2000b): Understanding Uncertainties in the phere GCM: Model Description, Spinup and Validation. Cli- response of ENSO to Greenhouse Warming. Geophys. Res. mate Dynamics, 13, 103-134. Letts., vol 27(21), 3509-3513. 9. Latif, M., Roeckner, E, Mikolajewicz, U. and Voss, R. (2000): 4. Collins, M., Osborn, T. J., Tett, S. F. B., Briffa, K. R. and Tropical Stabilisation of the thermohaline circulation in a Schweingruber, F. H. (2001): A comparison of the variability greenhouse warming simulation, J. Climate, 13, 1809-1813. of a climate model with palaeo-temperature estimates from 10. Thorpe, R. B., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Wood, R. A. a network of tree-ring densities. J. Climate, in press. and Mitchell, J. F. B. (2001): Mechanisms determining the 5. Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A. and Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation response to greenhouse Totterdell, I. J. (2000): Acceleration of global warming due to gas forcing in a non-flux adjusted coupled climate model. J. carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, Climate, 14, 3102-3116. 408, 184-187. 11. Tudhope, A. W. et al. (2001): Variability in the El Nino- 6. Cubash, U., Meehl G. A., et al. (2001): Projections of Fu- Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle. Sci- ture Climate Change. Chapter 9, IPCC Third Assessment ence, 291, 1511-1517. Report. 12. Williams, K. D., Senior, C. A. and Mitchell, J. F. B. (2001): 7. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, Transient climate change in the Hadley Centre models: The J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B. and Wood, R. A. (2000): role of physical processes, J. Climate, 14, 2659-2674. The Simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat trans-

32 considered. Utset et al. [4] Estimations of ENSO effects on sugarcane provides all the details of the model validations. yields in Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela Comparison between by A. Utset*, J. López and M. Alvarez actual and generated precipitation and evapotranspiration One of the approaches for recommending crop and water manage- A daily series of precipitation, ment practices under variable climate conditions is the use of crop- maximum, minimum and mean growth simulation models linked with weather forecasts [1]. This temperatures, wind speed, sun approach has been pointed out as the soundest available during the radiation and relative humidity * START-WMO supported Climate Prediction and Agriculture for more than 25 years was (CLIMAG) workshop. The approach was used to develop a methodol- available in each country. The ogy for predicting ENSO-caused climate-variability effects on sugar Japan Meteorological Agency cane yields at farms in Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela; in the frame- ENSO index was used to classify work of a proposal supported by the Inter-American Institute for ENSO years. Global Change Research (IAI). Our starting hypothesis was that One hundred years of daily ENSO effects on rain fed sugarcane mainly due to water deficits/ evapotranspiration and rainfall excess as a result of droughts/rainfall events associated with ENSO. data were generated in each country for El Niño, La Niña and Local daily climatic variable each experimental zone. The soil Neutral conditions. A daily-basin series are not usually long hydraulic properties were weather generator was used. The enough for assessing ENSO calculated from pedotransfer correlation coefficients between effects on crop yields. Hence, we functions, using available soil actual and generated data are used a weather generator for data. Average values of those 0.97 and 0.92 for the monthly obtaining an ENSO-conditioned properties were assigned to each precipitation and its standard climate series. A mechanistic sugarcane field through a GIS deviation, respectively. However, model, based on the Richards operation. the weather generator under equation for simulating the soil Simulations were performed predicts very large rainfalls and water content and crop water for the 1995-1996 cropping slightly over predicts the stand- use, was selected. These models season in the three countries. The ard deviation of the monthly provide the most accurate Penman-Monteith potential rainfall. The correlation coeffi- estimates of water effects on crop evapotranspiration was calcu- cient between actual and gener- yields [2]. lated daily and was taken as the ated evapotranspiration is 0.97. Therefore, the tested method- topsoil boundary condition. Free Still, the weather generator ology combines a weather water flux was taken as the systematically under estimates generator, able to provide an bottom boundary condition. the ETP. Conversely, it over ENSO-conditioned climate Daily rainfall was considered as estimates the ETP standard series, with a mechanistic crop the only water supply. deviation, even though the model for estimating ENSO The simulated and actual correlation coefficient remains effects on sugarcane water use yields as well as the Root Mean relatively high (0.84). Despite and yields in rain fed conditions. Square Errors (RMSE) are these inaccuracies, we consider This paper presents our main depicted in Figure 1. The correla- that the weather generator is able results. tion coefficients between actual to mimic ENSO effects on the and estimated yield are 0.46, studied variables, particularly on Crop model and 0.36, 0.54 and 0.41 for the Cuban, precipitation. model validations Mexican, Venezuelan and overall data cases, respectively. As can Simulated ENSO The model SWAP [5] was used be seen in Figure 1, the average effects on sugarcane for sugarcane yield estimations. estimated and actual yields are SWAP requires some particular equivalent. Furthermore, we yields and possible crop function, which were found that the model mimics not recommendations for experimentally determined for only the final yields, but also the decision-makers sugarcane by Ruiz et al. [3]. sprouting month effects, and Experimental farms of several hence the weather influence on The 100 generated years of daily hundred hectares were selected the yields. However, the model’s evapotranspiration and precipi- in each country. Climate data predictive accuracy can be tation data for each ENSO phase were assumed as constant for improved if local conditions are and country were used in the

33 Figure 1. Mean actual and simulated yields and corresponding RMSE. The Y-bars show the standard deviations.

simulations. The considered provide irrigation in these tation is usually scarce at the sprouting and harvest dates in all months in El Niño years in Cuba beginning of the crop season and simulations were January 1 and and in Neutral years in Ven- irrigation supply is required, as December 20, respectively. Rain ezuela. can be concluded from the low fed conditions and perfect The correlations between mean relative yields obtained in drainage at the bottom of the 1-m relative yields and the simulated the Mexican farm (see Table I) simulation layer were assumed. components of the water balance, under the simulated rain fed The “average” values of the soil i.e. effective rainfall, transpira- conditions. The water lost by hydraulic properties at each farm tion, soil evaporation and water deep drainage affects sugarcane were calculated through the flux at the bottom of the simu- growing in Venezuela in Neutral scaling procedure. Relative final lated soil layer, are shown in years, when the lowest yields are yields [5] were estimated at the Table II for each ENSO phase and achieved. This can be concluded end of each SWAP run. country. As expected, transpira- from the significant negative The basic statistics of the tion is significantly positively correlation coefficient between simulated relative yields for each correlated to the yields in all the bottom flux and relative yields in ENSO phase and country is cases. Soil evaporation is signifi- this case, as shown in Table I. All shown in Table I. Significantly cantly negatively correlated to of these results depend on the lower yields are obtained in the relative yields in Cuba in El modeling assumptions and on Cuba and significantly higher Niño years, when the lowest the soil hydraulic properties. yields in Mexico during El Niño yields are predicted. Hence, years. The yields are significantly farmers should prevent evapora- Conclusions lower in Neutral years in Ven- tion through any management Indeed, the combination of a ezuela. El Niño increases yield practice. However, soil evapora- physically based model and a variability in the Cuban farm, tion increases the sugarcane weather generator could provide whereas this variability is higher relative yields in Mexico and many useful recommendations to in Neutral years in Venezuela. Venezuela. Rainfall is negatively sugarcane and agricultural The temporal behavior of relative correlated and bottom flux decision-makers regarding crop yields (figures not shown) positively correlated in the water management under ENSO provides evidence that most of Cuban farm, which indicates that conditions. The crop model the negative effect is due to a drainage solution for the heavy mimics climate effects on the water stress in the first months, clayey soils of the farm could yields and the weather generator during the sugarcane intensive improve the yields. Rainfall is effectively reproduces climate growing period. Accordingly, positively correlated in the behavior. However, the simula- sugarcane farmers should Mexican farm, since the precipi- tion outputs rely on the model

34 Table I. Means, standard deviations (SD), coefficients of variation (CV), medians and maximum (Max) and minimum (Min) values of the Relative yields estimated from the 100 simulations at each country and ENSO phase. * Significantly at the 95% confidence level

Table II. Correlation coefficients between the estimated relative yields and the components of the water balance, as obtained from the 100 simulations.

assumptions and on the weather carried out at several places of José López generator performance. There- economic interest or climatic Institute of Geography, fore, validation studies in several risk. National University of México (UNAM), Mexico years are required before using Angel Utset+ the methodology for decision- Agrophysics Research Unit, Agricul- Manuel Alvarez making. The simulation results tural University of Havana, University of Los Llanos “Ezequiel and the corresponding recom- Apdo. 5117, La Habana 10500, Zamora” (UNELLEZ), mendations for decision-makers Cuba. Guanare, Portuguesa, Venezuela are highly site specific and hence E-mail: [email protected] particular studies should be +Author for correspondence

References 1. Hoogenboom, G. 2000 Contribution of agrometeorology 050130016, Ministry of Sciences and Technology, Havana. to the simulation of crop production and its applications. Agric. 4. Utset, A. 2001. Estimation of ENSO effects on sugar cane For. Meteorol. 103:137-157 yields in several Latin-American countries. IAI Proposal ISP- 2. Leenhardt, D., M. Voltz, S. Rambal, 1995. A survey of sev- III 41. Final Report. Inter-American Institute for Global Change eral agroclimatic soil water balance models with reference Research (IAI). to their spatial application. Eur. J. Agron. 4 (1), 1-14. 5. Van Dam, J. C., Huygen, J., Wesseling, J. G., Feddes, R. 3. Ruiz, M., Utset A., Medina, H., García, J., Fleitas, E., A., Kabat, P., van Walsum, P. E. V., Groenendijk, P., van Ruiz, J., Ferrer, M., 1999. Modelo determinístico para estimar Diepen, C. A., 1997. Theory of SWAP version 2.0. Report el rendimiento de la caña de azúcar. Research Report 71. Technical Document 45, Wageningen, 167 pp.

35 Down to Earth and/or some terrestrial ecosystem scientists. I sincerely hope this is not the case, but it did after Amsterdam emerge as a take-home message from the first Letter to the Editor, part of the conference. It can in fact be very damaging to national and other research policies from Peter M. Haugan if the most important aspects of an issue get lost The Global Change Open Science Conference in Am- in a flow of less essential side tracks. In this sterdam 10-13 July 2001 was an unprecedented case it does make a difference. The research that event, a celebration and a success in many ways. can shed light on centennial scale carbon trans- Many good overview talks, detailed information in ports may be quite different from that which parallel and poster sessions, active communication illuminates interannual and geographical variations between scientists and policy makers, and an op- in sinks. portunity to meet colleagues for off-line discus- More generally, should it not be the role of IGBP sions about projects, activities and scientific sta- and ICSU to come up with independent advice tus. As one of the many conference participants, I and highlight themes that are important, but are would like to thank the IGBP leadership and or- not necessarily high up on the short-term politi- ganization for their efforts in collaboration with cal agenda? In the broad new structure of the WCRP and IHDP, and congratulate the rapid IGBP (see IGBP brochure: A study of global progress obtained by the IGBP programme in the change) most other compartments and interfaces relatively few years that it has existed. The fu- are mentioned, but I miss something on the deep ture evolution of the IGBP can play a very impor- ocean sea floor, and, if you wish, its interaction tant role for development of many branches of with the ocean above. This boundary surface cov- science. It is therefore critical to examine and dis- ers 70 % of the planet and probably contains ge- cuss the path that the programme is presently tak- netic and other resources which may be crucial ing. As an outsider to IGBP until very recently, I in a long-term perspective. The deep ocean chem- would like to raise some questions, which I hope to istry and the sea floor are already affected by get answered or discussed. anthropogenic carbon and trace gases. It is not My first question is, how is the research agenda of currently high on the political agenda and has not the IGBP set? During the first day of the Open made its way to IGBP priorities. It is in fact not Science Conference, following an appropriate, col- mentioned at all. Is this another reflection of ourful and stimulating overview by the chair of the external determinants of IGBP priorities? IGBP, and information on recent actions in indus- The IGBP is marching at a rapid pace. Motivated try, the following plenary talks discussed a number by the possibility for science to contribute sig- of so-called research challenges. These were all nificantly and actively to political processes linked associated with legal aspects of the Kyoto proto- to sustainable development, present emphasis is col and how nations could comply with or circum- on synthesis, integration and cross-disciplinary vent various paragraphs there. The research chal- activities. This has been spelled out e.g. in the lenges all dealt with short-term behaviour of ter- recent IGBP Science Series #4. My second ques- restrial carbon sinks. These issues have made their tion is whether framework programmes, consen- way into the new proposed (or already endorsed?) sus building, capacity building, and advice to IGBP/WCRP/IHDP joint project on the Carbon policymakers should be prioritised tasks of the Cycle, where one of the three especially highlighted IGBP in the future? It is perfectly appropriate major goals is to explain the current patterns of that science coordinated by ICSU and IGBP un- sources and sinks. derpins intergovernmental processes and panels, In the session on sustainability science on the fol- and that prominent scientists in the IGBP are lowing day in Amsterdam, professor Bert Bolin in also advisers to governments and political insti- his very polite way, made the point that in the broad tutions. But are these activities as such suitable flow of information from the IGBP to policymakers, for a non-governmental scientific programme? some key messages can easily get lost. One of them Over the past decade, an unprecedented number is that the carbon problem is primarily a problem of scientific panels have been set up to advise on a centennial time scale. It is an important meth- governments on various environment and sustain- odological question in earth system modelling to ag- able development issues. More than 3000 experts gregate unnecessary details and retain important are currently appointed to UN-sponsored advi- system-level features (IGBP Science #4, p. 24). sory processes alone (www.unep.ch/earthw/ Has this message made its way to IGBP planning on sciadv2.htm). Can too much eagerness to contrib- the carbon issue? Based on the way the Amster- ute to action-oriented programmes in the long dam conference was structured, it is tempting to run jeopardize the role of the IGBP as an inde- suggest that there has been perhaps too much in- pendent scientific advisor? Policy and action pro fluence from short-term concerns of politicians

36 grammes rely on value-based judgements. Scien- tations in Amsterdam containing mistakes which tific consensus building and synthesis are re- would not have survived peer review, and examples source-demanding and challenging tasks. Who of improper mix of science and non-scientific in- shall champion the basic research efforts needed teractions with society. The format of the con- if even the IGBP prioritises integration and in- ference did not allow much interventions or dis- terpretation that semi-political panels are per- cussion. Is there a danger that the “scientific haps better placed to deal with? How to organ- method” as such, with formulation and possible re- ize capacity building is a related aspect. It is easy jection of hypotheses, discussion and critique, may to agree that capacity building is a good invest- get lost in the strive for usefulness and immedi- ment for global earth science as well as for de- ate policy relevance? It is more important than velopment and alleviation of poverty. However, ever to stress that minimum scores on the “old” rather than embarking on capacity building or- quality dimensions are required. How do we ensure ganized by the IGBP, perhaps it would be more traditional quality in interdisciplinary research? productive to recommend governments to There are not many experts in “earth system sci- strengthen capacity building programmes of ex- ence”. Perhaps it is too easy to trust specialists. isting intergovernmental organizations. When ap- Those specialists who articulate well are not al- propriate, they will certainly consult the IGBP ways those who have the deepest insight. and IGBP scientists anyway. These may seem like primarily critical remarks. But A third question is, how to ensure quality of IGBP my comments are meant to be constructive. I hope science in the future? This may seem an improper that others who care about the future of earth question to ask since it is easy to convince one- science as much as I do, take part not only in the self that the IGBP presently enjoys input from a individual scientific activities, but also in the dis- large number of highly qualified scientists. How- cussion about the appropriate role of the IGBP, as ever, in the long run, mechanisms may need to be well as ways and means to secure this role. institutionalised in order to secure a similar con- I am professor of physical oceanography at the tinued quality. My, possibly biased, impression is University of Bergen, Norway, member of the that with the presently expressed sense of ur- JGOFS SSC and the IOC/SCOR Carbon Advisory gency in global change research, there is a ten- Panel, president of the Norwegian Geophysical dency for the IGBP to formulate research plans Society, and Norwegian delegate to Intergovern- rapidly with limited independent review. The plans mental Oceanographic Commission. My research is definitely tend to be very broad, effectively ac- presently funded by the Norwegian Research Coun- cepting proposals and formulations put together cil, the European Union and industry. This contri- by many active subgroups. Are there satisfac- bution contains viewpoints on behalf of myself only tory procedures in place to prioritise? This would and does not necessarily represent any of the men- imply the need to sometimes say no, and to be tioned organisations or institutions. able to give lower priority to some issues than others. Admittedly that is very hard to do, since Peter M. Haugan very much research is in some way relevant to global change. But unless it is done, the IGBP science plans can be counter-productive. If too many Response to Peter Haugan’s scientists can find a home for their pet activity Letter in some corner of IGBP plans, one runs the risk of attracting mainly well-established and politi- Peter Haugan’s letter raises some critical issues cally active subgroups. In the mean time the most concerning the ways in which IGBP determines and important and most challenging scientific prob- carries out its research agenda and indeed some lems representing new areas of research that fundamental questions about the place of IGBP in require top intellectual resources and efforts the broader set of activities associated with glo- might not get the attention they deserve, nei- bal environmental issues. ther from the IGBP nor from the funding agencies who could look to IGBP for advice. 1. How is the research agenda of IGBP set? Emphasis on broad reviews, synthesis, frame- The research questions tackled within IGBP are works, dialogue with non-scientific groups and set by a combination of ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top down’ tight integration with policymakers does not have approaches. Thousands of scientists around the to, but can, reduce the possibilities for classical world contribute to IGBP. Through their work in scientific peer review activities. We heard many IGBP-initiated activities, they generate both new excellent review presentations in Amsterdam, and understanding of critical Earth System processes e.g. recently published reviews from PAGES and and new questions that must be tackled if progress JGOFS science provides testimony to the impor- is to continue. In addition, IGBP is undertaking a tance of such activities. There were also presen- more formal process to define the agenda for the

37 next decade of its research. This process involves ments or consensus building) to attempt to answer (i) the addition of ‘new blood’ to the planning teams the broad questions around which it has organised - scientists not currently associated with IGBP; its research and to build a new level of insight and (ii) interaction with the assessment community, understanding that provides the foundation for the most notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- next phase of research. mate Change (IPCC) and the Millennium Ecosystem (iii) IGBP cannot continue to be dominated by the Assessment (MA), regarding the priority questions wealthy countries of the North and claim to be a arising from their assessments; (iii) open science truly international research programme. Capacity meetings on proposed new projects to allow the building is crucial and central to the work of the scientific community as a whole to have appropri- programme. Through START, jointly sponsored by ate and timely input into the process; and (iv) much IGBP, IHDP and WCRP, the programmes are build- electronic communication with a very broad range ing up stronger participation of developing country of scientists throughout the whole process. scientists in their research networks. Much remains The Scientific Committee of the IGBP provides a to be done, but all three programmes strongly feel ‘top down’ approach to ensure that the overall re- that capacity building cannot be left to others. It search agenda of the programme is well focused, is vitally important for the programmes themselves. manageable, balanced and able to address the large (iv) IGBP’s activities are almost entirely funded by system-level questions that are now arising in Earth the public sector in about 50-60 countries around System Science. The SC-IGBP carefully reviews the world. They quite appropriately expect that all proposed new research projects and revisions IGBP’s research be relevant to the global environ- to existing projects in the context of the pro- mental issues that are affecting their countries, gramme as a whole. The aim is to prevent projects and furthermore that IGBP communicate the re- from becoming collections of many individual or search in ways that inform (but not prescribe) small-group agendas and ensures the coherence of policy debate. the programme as a whole. Although this bottom- up/top-down approach is long and somewhat cum- bersome in terms of multiple reviews at various 3. How can the quality of IGBP science be en- stages (contrary to Peter Haugan’s impression), it sured in future? does produce a cutting-edge, achievable, widely All of the research published as a result of IGBP accepted research agenda for the programme. activities must go through the normal peer-review In terms of the more specific issues raised in Pe- process. The IGBP website (www.igbp.kva.se) con- ter Haugan’s letter: (i) Long time-scale processes tains a list of publications arising from IGBP-spon- are indeed included in the new Carbon Joint Project sored activities. The websites of the core projects and explicitly noted in the Project’s prospectus, contain even more extensive lists. All of these pub- available at the Global Change Open Science Con- lications have been peer-reviewed in the normal ference and from the IGBP Secretariat in Stock- fashion. The set of synthesis volumes now nearing holm. (ii) Scientific questions in the deep ocean in completion have gone through an exhaustive re- an Earth System context are under consideration view process that has added about six months to as new ocean research within IGBP is being devel- their publication schedules but has ensured the oped. The planning process is still in its early stages quality of the volumes. with an IGBP-SCOR Planning Committee develop- In terms of the programme as a whole, IGBP was ing a set of draft questions for further consid- reviewed in 1995 by its parent organisation ICSU eration by the community. (International Council for Science) and by IGFA (International Group of Funding Agencies). Over- 2. Should framework programmes, consensus build- sight of the programme is carried out annually by ing, capacity building, and advice to policymakers ICSU’s Advisory Committee on the Environment. A be prioritised tasks of the IGBP in the future? major review of the programme by ICSU is due Dealing with each of the issues in turn: (i) IGBP does again soon. not directly fund individual research projects them- In the final analysis, the quality of the programme’s selves but rather provides a framework within which science is best ensured by attracting the highest these projects can work together towards common quality scientists to the programme. In this re- objectives. IGBP focuses on those questions and ac- gard, IGBP continues to be very successful, and tivities where an international approach is the only the future for international Earth System Science or best way to tackle the question. Building widely within the framework of IGBP and its partner pro- accepted and agreed frameworks is a key IGBP ac- grammes IHDP, WCRP and DIVERSITAS appears tivity. exceptionally bright. (ii) IGBP periodically carries out synthesis of its own Will Steffen, Executive Director, IGBP work (syntheses are not the same as either assess-

38 Manipulating terrestrial sinks would be short-term, one-off benefits that should not be considered as long term alternatives to carbon sinks cutting emissions (Nature 412: 108, 2001). The ques- Letter to the Editor, from Camini tion here is how can we increase the production of the humus substances to enhance long term C stor- Seneviratne age? This can easily be done by direct inoculation of It is reported that both forestry and agricultural soil fauna to the litter layer. In a spruce forest in management have the potential to increase terres- Germany, the inoculation of earthworms markedly in- trial C sinks (IGBP Newsletter, No. 46, p. 26, June corporated organic matter to a depth of 20 cm (Soil 2001). However, recent studies showed that fast Biol. Biochem. 29: 677, 1997). In a woodland flood turnover rates of organic C in the forest floor litter plain in U.S., earthworms consumed all the litter de- layer result in quick return of the C to the atmos- posited on the soil surface within several weeks (Am. phere in little over 3 years (Nature 411: 466, 2001). Midl. Nat. 113: 1, 1985). Soil faunal activities increase Additional C taken up by some forests in response N availability and hence C sequestration in plants (Ecol- to atmospheric CO enrichment is partitioned pref- ogy 72: 665, 1991). Therefore, soil faunal inoculation 2 erentially to fast turnover pools (i.e. leaves and fine has a two-fold advantage; increased C sequestration th roots) (R. Norby et al., 86 annual meeting of ESA, in soils as well as in plants. Further C sequestration in 5-10 August, 2001). Production of slower turnover forest trees may be possible by foliar application of pools like refractory humus substances in soils, which both macro- and micronutrients to the canopy using have turnover times over 1000 years, sequesters only aeroplanes. 0.7% of terrestrial net primary production (Nature Camini Seneviratne, Institute of Fundamental Stud- 348: 232, 1990). This justifies that terrestrial C ies, Sri Lanka. E-mail: [email protected]

New members of the Scientific Committee of the IGBP Professor Karin Lochte is a biological oceanographer with a wide experience in the investigation of marine microbial processes in the open ocean and coastal seas. Her scientific interests focus on the role of microorganisms in the cycling of carbon in the ocean, particularly in the deep sea. She has been actively involved in the JGOFS research programmes since the beginning of this core project and is a member of the JGOFS scientific steering committee. After her PhD in 1985, which she obtained at the School of Oceanography in Bangor North Wales, UK, Karin worked as a scientist at the Institut of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel, and at the Alfred-Wegener- Institut for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven. Since 1995 she has taught biological oceanography, at first as a Professor at the Baltic Sea Research Institute at the University of Rostock and since 2000 at the Institut of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel, where she is head of the Department of Biologial Oceanography. She has contributed to the development of marine science plans of the European Science Foundation. As a member of the German National Committee for Global Change Research and of the Senate Commission of the German Research Council for Oceanography she is involved in the development of global change research on a national level. Professor An Zhisheng is well-known in the past global change and quaternary science Communities. He is a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Third World Academy of Sciences. He has been working on East-Asian Monsoon changes, dust accumalation, and the interactions of these with global change. He was invited as key-note speaker at the SAC IV meeting, Beijing in 1995 and at the 1st IGBP PAGES Open Science Meeting, London in 1998. He worked at the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology as director from 1989 to 1999; he is at present the director of the Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In 1999 he was elected the vice president of INQUA after being the president of INQUA Loess Commission for two terms (1991-1999). His contributions to science won him Chinese Natural Scientific Awards both in 1991 and in 1999.

39 40 IGBP and Related GCTE: Manipulating Insect Herbivory In Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function Experiments Meetings 22-26 September, Jena, Germany Contact: Valarie Brown, [email protected] or For a more detailed meetings list please see our web Wolfgant Weisser, [email protected] or site at http://www.igbp.kva.se Winfried Voigt, [email protected]

GLOBEC: IOC/SPACC Workshop on the Use of International Symposium on Abrupt Holocene Environmental Indices in the Management of Environmental Changes in Arid Asia - History Pelagic Fish and Mechanisms (RACHAD 2001) 3-5 September, Cape Town, South Africa 26-28 September (Tentative), Lanzhou, China Contact: GLOBEC IPO: [email protected] Contact: Dr. Chengjun ZHANG, [email protected] or Jianjun LI., [email protected] GLOBEC: SPACC - Spatial Approaches of the Dynamics of Coastal Pelagic Resources and JGOFS: JGOFS/LOICZ/IOC Continental Margins their Environment in Upwelling Areas Workshop on Marginal Seas, International Symposium on Biogeochemical Fluxes in 6-8 September, Cape Town, South Africa Marginal Seas and Tropical Coastal Zones Contact: Pierre Freon: [email protected] or GLOBEC 28-30 September, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC. IPO: [email protected] Contact: Kon-Kee Liu, [email protected] LOICZ: LOICZ-UNEP Polar estuarine biogeochemical budgets workshop First Sustainability Days 9-11, September, Stockholm, Sweden 28 September-5 October, PIK Potsdam, Germany Contact: LOICZ IPO, [email protected] Contact: [email protected] or http://www.pik- potsdam.de/sustdays International Conference on Paleoceanography VII FAO Conference: Responsible fisheries in the Marine Ecosystem 16-22 September, Sapporo, Japan 1-4 October, Reykjavik, Iceland Contact: Hisatake Okada, [email protected] or http://www.iijnet.or.jp/JTB-CS/icp7/ Contact: Dr. Grimur Valdimarsson: [email protected] or http://www.refisheries2001.org/ 3rd International Conference on Land Degradation and the Meeting of the IUSS Sub- 6th International Carbon Dioxide Conference commission C - Soil and Water Conservation 1-5 October, Sendai, Japan 17-21 September, Rio de Janiero, Brazil Contact: Shuji Aoki, [email protected] or http://co2.geophys.tohoku.ac.jp/ Contact: [email protected] or http://www.cnps.embrapa.br/icld3 Data Management Task Team Meeting Environmental Change: Implications for 2-3 October, Washington, DC, USA Population Migrations Contact: Margarita Conkright, [email protected] 19-21 September, Wengen, Switzerland Scoping Workshop on Global Change Impact Contact: http://www.unifr.ch/iguf/EVENTS/Wengen/01/ Wengen2001.html Assessment on Himalayan Mountain Regions 2-5 October 2001, Nagarkot, Nepal GCTE: Impacts of Biotic Invasions in Terrestrial Contact Person: Kedar Lal Shrestha, [email protected] Ecosystems: Spatial Assessment, Base Rates and Consequences SCOR WG 119 ‘Quantitative Ecosystem for 19-22 September, Barcelona, Spain fisheries management’ Meeting Contact: Mark Lonsdale, [email protected] or 5-6 October, Reykjavik, Iceland Richard Mack, [email protected] or Contact: P. Cury: [email protected] or W. Christensen: Montserrat Vila, [email protected] [email protected]

Tree Rings and People. An International North Pacific Synthesis Group Meeting Conference on the Future of Dendrochronology 5-13 October, Victoria, BC, Canada 22-26 September, Davos, Switzerland Contact: Alexander Bychkov, [email protected] Contact: Paolo Cherubini, [email protected] or http://www.wsl.ch/forest/dendro2001/

41 IHDP: Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions 5th International Conference on the Cenozoic of Global Environmental Change Research Evolution of the Asia-Pacific Environment Community 29 October-1 November, Hong Kong, China 6-8 October, Rio de Janiero, Brazil Contact: Dr Wyss Yim, [email protected] or Contact: [email protected], Prof. Jiamao Han, [email protected] http://sedac.ciesin.org/openmeeting/ Afri Basins II Workshop on African River Workshop on IMAGE ANALYSIS, sediments and Catchments/Coastal Fluxes and Human paleoenvironments Dimensions 8-10 October, Amherst, USA 29 October-1 November, Nairobi, Kenya Contact: [email protected] or Contact: LOICZ IPO, [email protected] http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/imagewks.html LOICZ AfriBASINS II Meeting; Workshop on Chapman Conference on State-of-the-Art African River Catchment/Coastal Zone Hillslope Hydrology Interaction and Human Dimensions 8-12 October, Sunriver, Oregon, USA 29 October-1 November 2001, Nairobi, Kenya Contact: Jeff McDonnell, [email protected] or Contact: Hartwig Kremer, [email protected] http://agu.org/meetings/cc01ecall.html Changes in Climate and Environment at High- SPACC/GLOBEC Workshop on Latitudes Paleoceanography 31 October-2 November, Troms¿, Norway 10-13 October, Munich, Germany Contact Kai-Rune Mortensen, [email protected] or Contact: Dr. Juergen Alheit: [email protected] http://www.ibg.uit.no/geologi/konferanser/clienvir/index.html or Dr. Uli Struck: [email protected] VI International Symposium and Field Workshop START: START Scientific Steering Committee on Paleopedology (ISFWP) Meeting TBA, October, Mexico City 15-18 October, Washington, D.C., USA Contact: Dr. Elizabeth Solleiro-Rebolledo, Contact: Ching Wang, [email protected] [email protected] or http://inqua.nlh.no/commpl/pedmeet2.htm International Water Association World Water Congress First ARTS Open Sciences Meeting 15-19 October, Berlin, Germany 4-7 November, Nouméa, New Caledonia Contact: http://www.iwa-world-water-congress.de/netscape/ Contact: Rob Dunbar (Stanford University) or index.html Thierry Correge, [email protected] or Brad Linsley, [email protected] or GCTE: GCTE Focus 1 Workshop: Tracing Carbon Sandy Tudhope, [email protected] or http://pangea.stanford.edu/Oceans/ARTS/ or in Elevated CO2 Experiments http://pangea.stanford.edu/Oceans/ARTS/Noumea2001.html 19-21 October, Durham, NC, USA Contact: Diane Pataki, [email protected] Africagis 2001 Conference and Exhibition 5 -9 November, Nairobi, Kenya Joint IAPSO/GLOBEC Symposium Contact: Nasser Olwero, [email protected] or The World 21-28 October, Mar del Plata, Argentina Bank/EIS Program, c/o CSIR-Environmentek, Contact: Paola Rizzoli: [email protected] or GLOBEC IPO: [email protected] [email protected] or Hugh Ducklow, [email protected] or Karin Lochte, [email protected] International Conference on Agricultural Science and Technology SEARCH/APD Show Case Workshop; Past 7-9 November, Beijing, China Landcover Changes; the Human Impact Ð An Contact: ICAST, China Science and Technology Exchange African Database and Network Symposium Center, [email protected] or http:// 22-26 October 2001, Nairobi, Kenya www.agscience2001.org

Contact Person: Eric Odada, Email: [email protected] GCTE: Trophic Interactions in a Changing World 7-11 November, TBA, The Netherlands International Conference on Carbon Sinks and Biodiversity Contact: Peter de Ruiter, [email protected] or W.H. van der Putten, [email protected] or Jeff A. Harvey, 24 - 26 October, Liège, Belgium [email protected] or Martin Wassen, Contact: N. Baute, [email protected] or [email protected] http://environnement.wallonie.be/presidence/en/event7/ detail.htm

42 GCTE: Workshop on IMAGES ANALYSIS IV International Symposium on Sustainable 8-10 November, University of Massachussets Development in the Andes: The Andean Contact: Pierre Francus, [email protected] or Strategy for the XXI Century, AMA-Mérida 2001 http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/imagewks.html 25 November-2 December, Mérida, Venezuela Contact: http://www.forest.ula.ve/ama-merida2001 PAGES: Abrupt Climate Change Dynamics 10-15 November, Il Ciocco, Italy GLOBEC: 1st Symposium GLOBEC-Spain Contact: Keith Alverson, [email protected] or 28- 30 November, Cadiz, Spain http://www.esf.org/euresco/01/lc01170a.htm Contact: Fidel Echevarria, [email protected] or GLOBEC IPO: [email protected] or http://www.uca.es/ LOICZ: LOICZ/UNEP Global Synthesis Expert symposium_globec/ Workshop on Coastal Biogeochemistry and Scaling Scientific Forum on Global Change Studies 11-14 November, Lawrence, Kansas, USA 28-30 November, Havana, Cuba Contact: LOICZ IPO, [email protected] Contact: [email protected]

ICARDA/IGBP/IDDC Workshop: Agriculture, Workshop for the DIAL Network for Supporting Environment and Human Welfare in West Asia Global Change Research in the Asia-Pacific and North Africa. The Search for 'Sustainability' Region 12-14 November, Aleppo, Syria TBA, November, Malaysia Center for Remote Sensing, Malaysia Contact: Dr Adel El Beltagy, [email protected] Contact: Liping Di, [email protected]

Global Change and Fire Effects at African Groundwater Resources Workshop Landscape Scales TBA, November, Natal, South Africa 12-16 November, Santa Barbara, CA, USA Contact: Eric Odada, [email protected] Contact: Mike Flannigan, [email protected] or Sandra Lavorel, [email protected] Global Conference on Oceans and Coasts at RICAMARE Training Course on the Rio+10 Socio-Economic Effects of Climate Change in 3-7 December, UNESCO, Paris the Mediterranean Region Contact: Dr. Biliana Cicin-Sain, [email protected] 12-16 November 2001, Trieste, Italy International Conference on Freshwater Contact: Gerard Begni, [email protected] 3-7 December, Bonn, Germany JGOFS: Paleo-JGOFS Task Team and Workshop Contact: http://www.water-2001.de 12-17 November, Germany or France Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project Contact: Karen Lochte, [email protected] for Asia Workshop 1st SARCS Regional Scientific Committee 10-13 December 2001, Kobe, Japan Meeting Contact: Congbin Fu, [email protected] 15-16 November, National Central University, Taiwan LUCC: International Symposium on LUCC Contribution to Asian Environmental Contact: Connie Chiang, [email protected] Problems Indicators of Sustainable Development 13-14 December, Tokyo, Japan Workshop Contact: http://shiba.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/LUCC/symp 17-19 November 2001, National Central Univer- sity, Taiwan Contact: Connie Chiang, [email protected]

GAIM: GAIM Task Force Meeting 18-20 November, PIK Potsdam, Germany Contact: [email protected]/

43 In coming edition of the IGBP Newsletter... More highlights from the Open Science Conference Skin cancer and global change Special edition on IGBP Phase II

Note to contributors Articles should achieve a balance of (i) solid scientific content, and (ii) appeal to the broad global change research community rather than to a narrow discipline. Articles should be between 800 and 1500 words in length, and be accompanied by one to three key graphics or figures (colour or black and white). Letters in response to an article in this Newsletter or relating to Glo- bal Change issues generally should be a maximum of 200 words in length and include author and contact details. ISSN 0284-5865 Image quality To ensure clear and presentable reproduction, images for reproduction need to be saved in the correct way. Photographic images need to be saved in TIFF format. All other images including charts, graphs, illustrations, maps and logos need to be saved in EPS format. All pixel images need to be high resolution (at least 300 pixels per inch). Edited by Susannah Eliott Some charts, graphs and illustrations can be reconstructed at the Technical Editing by John Bellamy IGBP Secretariat, however, poor quality photographic images, maps Requests for reproduction of articles and logos can not be improved. Material “borrowed” from the Internet appearing in this distribution should be can not be used for publication, as it does not fit the requirements addressed to the Editor: listed above. (E-mail: [email protected]) Newsletter requests and change of Deadlines for 2001/2002: address information should be sent to: December issue Deadline for material: November 2 IGBP Secretariat The Royal Swedish Academy of March 2002 issue Deadline for material: February 8 Sciences June issue Deadline for material: May 10 Box 50005,S-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden September issue Deadline for material: August 9 Tel: (+46-8) 16 64 48 Fax: (+46-8) 16 64 05 December issue Deadline for material: November 1 E-mail: [email protected] Send contributions by email to the Editor, Susannah Eliott http://www.igbp.kva.se Email: [email protected]; Phone: +46 8 16 64 48; The IGBP Report Series is published in Fax: +46 8 16 64 05 annex to the Global Change NewsLetter