Data compression fraud Chair-entity changeover Veterinary The Cartwright Report revisited

number 97 – spring 2010 content editorial

NearZero Inc: A sadly prophetic company name 3 The end of an era The changing of the guard 5 A new golden age? 11 HIS year’s NZ Skeptics conference in was the usual Newsfront 12 Tmix of stimulating presentations and good companionship, but it will go down in the society’s history as the end of Vicki Hyde’s Animal welfare issues whacked term as chair-entity. In this issue of the NZ Skeptic we farewell Vicki with Bent Spoon 15 and meet Gold, who is taking on the chair-entity role. Scenes from a conference 17 At the conference dinner, Paul Ashton invited founding member The Unfortunate Experiment: Warwick Don to present Vicki with a framed ‘Skeptic trump’ by Revisiting the Cartwright British cartoonist Crispian Jago (crispian-jago.blogspot.com). These Report 18 are highly sought after – the other 70 recipients include Richard Oxygenated food for Dawkins, Stephen Fry, and Susan Blackmore; Ricki the brain? 23 Gervais wanted one but was declined. Vicki is the first Kiwi. To illustrate the length of time she has been in the chair Paul drew on a technique often used in describing geological time scales: if all of NZ Skeptics history occupied one day, then Vicki became chair- entity at 6:17 in the morning.

ISSN - 1172-062X The event began with a relaxed Friday 13th evening spent tempt- ing fate (breaking mirrors, walking under ladders etc), watching Contributions skeptical videos and partaking from Butterfly Creek’s fine cafe and Contributions are welcome and well-stocked bar. Then the conference proper got under way on should be sent to: Saturday morning with Robert Bartholomew, who lost a shouting David Riddell match with the rain before resorting to electronic assistance. But his 122 Woodlands Rd talk on mass delusions gave a solid historical perspective to much RD1 Hamilton of what followed. Email: [email protected] Though there was a strong medical focus this year, with talks on Deadline for next issue: immunisation, the ‘unfortunate experiment’ (for another perspective December 10 2010 see Michelle Coffey’s article in this issue), and the demonisation of Letters for the Forum may be edited fat, there was also room for topics as varied as data compression as space requires - up to 250 words software (see opposite), how to deal with ‘wingnuts’, basic is preferred. Please indicate the techniques of mediumship, and some good old-fashioned debunking publication and date of all clippings of the alleged apocalypse in 2012. YouTube has TV3’s coverage for the Newsfront. – search for ‘Skeptics conference 2010’. We’ll be running more Material supplied by email or CD is presentations in the NZ Skeptic over the coming year; if you missed appreciated. the conference and can’t wait, the Science Media Centre website has Permission is given to other non- several of the talks as podcasts in its Reflections on Science section profit skeptical organisations to – posted 16 and 17 August. reprint material from this publication provided the author and NZ Skeptic Vicki leaves the chair-entity role with the society in good heart, as are acknowledged. evidenced by the high level of attendance at the conference and the Opinions expressed in the New good proportion of younger faces there. The rapid changes in the Zealand Skeptic are those of the so-called new media are providing new pathways for spreading the individual authors and do not skeptical message, and these are fields that Gold has considerable necessarily represent the views of expertise in. Interesting times to be a skeptic. NZ Skeptics (Inc.) or its officers.

Subscription details are available from www.skeptics.org.nz or PO Box 29-492, . number 97 – spring 2010 main feature NearZero Inc: A sadly prophetic company name

Paul Ashton

Many people lost a lot of money investing in non-existent data compression software because well- established principles of information theory were ignored. This article is based on a presentation to the 2010 NZ Skeptics conference.

N THE late 1990s, Nelson as whether someone is male or encode the colour of a pixel. Iman Philip Whitley claimed female), for most pieces of data Standards are needed so that to have invented a new data we need to store a larger range of everyone interprets bit patterns compression technology worth values. With each bit we add, the in the same way. billions of dollars. Over the next number of possible values dou- decade money was raised on a bles; by the time we get to 8 bits Data representation methods number of occasions to develop we have 256 different values. are often chosen based on how this technology, culminating The byte (a group of 8 bits) has easy it is to process the data. Of- in a company called NearZero proved to be a very useful unit of ten, the same data can be stored Inc raising $5.3 million from storage; storage sizes are usually more compactly at the cost of shareholders. According to a quoted in bytes. making it harder to process. The well-established body of theory, Whitley’s claims were obviously false. Unsurprisingly, within a few months of NearZero’s formation, it was in liquidation, with its funds gone. I thought the saga of NearZero could be of interest to skeptics as it involves claims that were clearly false according to well- established theory, and those claims cost investors a lot of money. But first, a quick introduction to how data is stored by comput- ers, and how that data can be compressed. Computers store Compressed information: Paul Ashton addresses the NZ Skeptics conference. data digitally, using the digits 0 and 1 in a binary code. A piece Character data is usually stored process of translating a piece of of storage capable of storing a 1 byte per character (in European data into a more compact form 0 or a 1 is known as a bit (short languages). Lower case ‘a’ is (and back again!) is known as for binary digit). With 1 bit we represented as 01100001, for data compression. Compressing can store two values: 0 and 1. example. A picture is a grid of data allows us to put more data While this might be enough to dots. Each dot is called a pixel, onto a data storage device, and store a simple data value (such and usually 4 bytes are used to

page  data compression to send it more quickly across a account will do better than one of data. A 1000-character extract communications link. The size that doesn’t, as the context-based from a book has more informa- ratio between the compressed one will be a better predictor of tion content than 1000 letter ‘x’ version and the uncompressed the next symbol. characters, even though both version is known as the compres- might be represented using 1000 sion ratio. Likewise images are not ran- characters. To quote Wikipedia: dom collections of coloured “Shannon’s entropy represents In ‘lossless’ compression, the dots (pixels). Rather, pictures an absolute limit on the best uncompressed data is always typically include large areas possible lossless compression of identical (bit for bit) to the that have much the same colour. any communication”. Modern original data we started with. A Sequences of frames in a movie compression algorithms are so compression method designed to often differ little from each other, good that “The performance of work with any type of data must and this can be exploited by com- existing data compression algo- be lossless. pression methods. rithms is often used as a rough In ‘lossy’ compression, we estimate of the entropy of a are willing to accept small dif- If it was possible to block of data”. In other words, ferences between the original compress any file to less it is not possible to achieve data and the uncompressed than seven percent of its large improvements over cur- rent compression techniques. data. In some situations we original size then it would do not want to risk data being The claims changed by compression, and be possible to compress lossless methods must be used. any file down to 1 bit. It is time to have a look at With images and sound, small Philip Whitley’s claims. He changes that are difficult for claimed that he could compress humans to detect are tolerable if The effectiveness of a com- (losslessly) any file to under sev- they lead to big space savings. pression method depends on en percent of its original size, but The JPG image format and mp3 how predictable / random the this is not credible. Compression video/audio format have lossy data is, and how good the com- potential varies widely depend- compression methods built in pression method is at exploiting ing on patterns in the original to them. Users can choose the whatever predictability exists. If file. Many files are already com- tradeoff between quality and data are random, then no com- pressed, so have little potential space. pression is possible. In these for further compression. Even cases compression methods can for uncompressed files, seven A question of pattern actually create a compressed file percent is achievable only in For it to be possible to com- larger than the original, because exceptional cases (English text press data, there must be some the compression methods have entropy means the best achiev- pattern to the data for the com- some costs. A compressed file able for English text is around pression method to exploit. Let- is much more random than the 15 percent). ter frequencies in English text uncompressed version, because the compression method has re- If it was possible to compress are well known, and could be any file to less than seven per- the basis for a text compression moved patterns that were present in the original. cent of its original size then it method. We can do better if we would be possible to compress take context into account. The In many branches of com- any file down to 1 bit. The first most frequent letter is ‘e’ (12.7 puter science it is important to compression takes you down percent), but if we know the next establish the best possible way to under seven percent of the letter is the first in a word then ‘t’ in which something could be original file. Given that Whitley is the most likely (16.7 percent). done, to serve as a benchmark claimed his technique worked on If we know the previous letter for current methods. In informa- any file, we could then compress was ‘q’ then the next will almost tion theory, Shannon’s entropy the compressed file, reducing it certainly be ‘u’. A compression is a measure of the underlying to less than 0.5 percent of the method that takes context into information content of a piece original size, and so on. number 97 – spring 2010 data compression

Initial tests of Whitley’s tech- to monitor the network cable GIF and MP3 files to compress nology were done on one com- between two computers, to check poorly (they are all compressed puter. This made it easy to cheat. that the original file is not sent formats). How well a tar file will The ‘compression’ program can in addition to the compressed compress depends on the files easily save a copy of the original file (though the tester must be that it contains. file somewhere on disk as well alert for other possible commu- as producing the ‘compressed’ nication paths, such as wireless A simple comparison version. Then, when the com- networks). To get some data to compare pressed version is ‘expanded’, with the results in the report, the hidden copy can be restored. A two-computer test was sub- sequently conducted, and de- I ran some tests using gzip (a Whitley remained in control widely used lossless compres- of the equipment, ostensibly to scribed in a 14-page report by Titus Kahu of Logical Networks. sion method) on some text, tar prevent anybody from stealing and JPG files. I managed to lo- his software. At first glance the report looks impressive, but on closer reading cate two of the tar files used in the Critical assessment flaws quickly emerge. The two Titus Kahu tests: Calgary.tar and computers used were Whitley’s. Canterbury.tar. Gzip achieved Philip Whitley’s company The major flaw was that Kahu savings of 67.24 percent and Astute Software paid Tim Bell was limited to testing a set of 24 73.80 percent (so Calgary.tar was (an associate professor of com- files selected by Whitley. The compressed to about one third of puter science at the University obvious form of cheating this al- its original size, and Canterbury. of Canterbury) for an opinion lows is that the set of files can be tar to about one quarter). I also on the technology. Tim Bell placed on the second computer located three text files that were has an international reputation before the tests. Then all that the later versions of text files used in the field of data compression; first computer needs to do is to by Kahu: on these Gzip achieved Microsoft has used him as an include in the ‘compressed’ data savings of 63.08 percent, 62.05 expert witness, and he has co- details of which file is required (a percent, and 70.77 percent. I authored two well-known com- number between 1 and 24 would also compressed a JPG file using pression textbooks. An irony of suffice). The receiving computer gzip, and achieved a saving of the NearZero case is that New can then locate the required file 2.34 percent. Zealand has more expertise in in its hiding place. this field than you might expect There are no great surprises for a small country (the co-au- Titus Kahu did check the re- in my results. There was quite thors of the two text books are ceiving computer to see if files a variation in the compression -born or live in with the names of those used in achieved, even amongst files of New Zealand). the test were present, but you the same data type (the three text would expect that someone set- files for example). Compressing Tim Bell’s views were blunt: ting out to deceive would at the a JPG file gave little extra com- “The claims they were making very least rename the files. pression (not enough to make it at the time defied what is mathe- worth further compression with matically possible, and were very The report makes for interest- gzip). similar to claims made by other ing reading. The files were of companies around the world that a number of types, including By comparison, savings in had defrauded investors.” One of text files, pictures in JPG and the report were 93.52 percent his criticisms was that the tests GIF formats, MP3 audio files, for four files and 93.53 percent were not two-computer tests. In and tar files. A tar file is a way for the other 20. I suspect that such a test the compression is of collecting a number of files the difference in the fourth sig- performed on one computer and together into a single file (zip nificant figure is due to rounding the compressed file is transferred files in Windows serve the same the file size to the nearest byte. to a second computer, where it is purpose). These results are not remotely decompressed. A two-computer believable. The compression test prevents the hidden-file form One would expect text files achieved is too good to be true of cheating. It is reasonably easy to compress well, but JPG, even for data that compresses

page  data compression well (such as text), let alone for ‘one-computer’ tests were done, In February to April 2007 data formats that are already and Tim Bell’s opinion was NearZero share purchase meet- compressed. The incredible sought. In mid 2001 the logical ings were held in Auckland, consistency of the compression Networks ‘two-computer’ tests and Christchurch. A achieved is also not credible. were done by Titus Kahu. In total of 490 investors invested 2002, a Mr Cohen (an investor) $5.3 million. The investment op- Downfall asked for a (long-awaited) copy portunity brochure forecast that Having looked at some back- of the compression technology; the near-term NearZero market ground, it is time to look at the he was told by Philip Whitley the capitalisation would be US$482 chain of events that culminated only copies had been acciden- billion to $780 billion, and was in NearZero Inc’s rise and fall. tally burnt when cleaning out his expected to exceed one trillion Philip Whitley’s early forays into safe. Later in 2002 work stopped US dollars. Note that the largest business were not promising. In due to Whitley becoming ill. company in the world, Petrochi- na, is a US$405 billion company, 1995 he was adjudged bankrupt In 2005 Whitley resumed (discharged in 1998). In 1997 he and the largest US companies, work on the technology. Some of including Exxon Mobil, Apple became a shareholder in Nelic the original investors put in a fur- Computing Ltd, which went into and Microsoft, are in the 200 to ther $125,000. On 10 July 2006, 300 billion bracket. liquidation in 1999, owing unse- NearZero was incorporated in cured creditors $70,000. Nevada, with Philip Whitley as Things quickly went wrong. In 1999 Philip Whitley formed president, treasurer and sole di- In May 2007, the Securities a software company (Astute rector. Later in 2006 Titus Kahu Commission started investigat- Software) with a number of became engineering director for ing the legality of the NearZero Nelson investors (who put in Syntiro (a Philip Whitley com- share offer (there is no registered $292,000). Astute worked on pany doing development work prospectus, for example). Also in a number of projects, and de- for NearZero) on the generous May, Price Waterhouse Coopers veloped the data compression salary of $250,000 a year. (PWC) were appointed as inter- technology. In early 2001 the

number 97 – spring 2010 data compression im liquidators for NearZero, and results are dismissed as being in the Nelson Mail about wasted moved to sell houses and cars. “a 1948 paper”. money and time (and resulting In June, PWC said $218,000 stress). Some of the information went to Richmond City Football He also stated: “In regard to to emerge in the trial: Club, $523,000 on vehicles, the item 3/ I have never asserted • $852,000 on property, $683,000 that the technology is based on Philip Whitley hired to US-based company secretary an algorithm”. In computer a team of seven body guards Sherif Safwat, and $270,000 science, an algorithm is sim- headed by "Oz" (Oswald Van on household expenses. They ply a description of how to do Leeuwen), who was on a sal- found little evidence of money something in a series of steps. A ary of $300,000. This level of spent developing compression common analogy is to say that a security was needed because of technology. cooking recipe is an algorithm the (supposed) enormous value for preparing food. If Philip of the compression technology In June Whitley invited inves- Whitley’s compression technol- • tors to contribute money to fund ogy is not based on an algorithm According to Sherif Saf- legal action to prevent liquida- then that implies it cannot be wat, Philip Whitley believed a tion. Also in June PWC found described as a sequence of steps, Chechnyan hit team had arrived no evidence of any compression and therefore cannot actually be in New Zealand on a Russian technology. Whitley claimed implemented! fishing boat. to have wiped it; PWC found • In November, Associate Judge Philip Whitley: "The [se- no evidence of use of wiping curity guards] said that the Rus- software. Christiansen ordered NearZe- ro’s liquidation, and ruled that sians were trying to penetrate and Then in July Whitley made the compression technology we ended up with security guards some rather curious statements in had no value. Then in August living in my house, camped on an affidavit sworn in relation to 2008 Whitley faced the much the floor ... I couldn't go out of the liquidation: “I will however more serious charge of mak- the house without having secu- say that it isn’t binary and there- ing fraudulent claims about his rity ... it just built up inside me to fore not subject to Shannon’s technology. the point where I just lost it from Law of algorithmic limitation.” a point of paranoia." If there was a real technology In September 2008 all share- holders were given the option In his summing up on May 27, that was not based on binary it is the defence lawyer said: hard to see it being of widespread of keeping their shares or get- use in computer and communica- ting their money back. They • "Whitley had a distorted tion systems that store, transmit proved to be remarkably loyal: view of reality which led him and process all data in binary. $3.1m voted to stay in; $2.2m to believe his data compression The affidavit continues: “Shan- voted for reimbursement. I’m technology was real." not sure whether there was any non’s Law is attached to this • "... [we are] not challeng- affidavit as Annexure “Y” and it money to reimburse those who voted that way (probably not). ing the evidence of ... Prof Bell can be seen that this is a 1948 pa- that Whitley’s claimed invention per”. Claude Shannon founded In August 2009 Philip Whitley was convicted and fined for mak- was mathematically impossi- information theory, which is the ble.” basis of how digital computers ing allotments without having a represent data (according to one registered prospectus. In July Philip Whitley was tribute, the digital revolution The trial found guilty on two counts of started with information theory). fraud (but maintains he still has Shannon coined the term bit, In February 2010 the fraud his inventions). and introduced the concept of trial began in Nelson. Whitley On August 10, 2010, he was information entropy referred was charged with making a false sentenced to five years and three to earlier. It is interesting that statement as a promoter be- months in prison. Shannon’s fundamental research tween July 2006 and May 2007. There were many sad stories in

page  data compression

The NearZero mess should not I was asked at the conference Much of the information in have happened. New Zealand how non-technical NearZero this article is based on the Nel- has more researchers in this investors could have protected son Mail’s extensive reporting field than you would expect for themselves. I had no answers at of the issue, for which they are a country of this size. One of the time, but have given it some to be congratulated. Another the most prominent, Tim Bell, thought since. Some things they good source of information was clearly stated in 2001 that the could have done: nearzero.bravehost.com, a web- claims were false. However, site set up by and for NearZero’s • investors still committed (and Google the names of the shareholders in 2007 in response lost) millions of dollars over a company principals. to the liquidation of NearZero. number of years. Compression • Check to see how the An article by Matt Philp on claims are easily tested (much predicted market capitalisation Philip Whitley and NearZero ap- more easily than medical claims, compared to that of existing peared in the October 2010 issue for example). Whitley refused companies. Finding that the of North & South. to allow his technology to be lowest estimate would make Paul Ashton was a lecturer in the independently tested using the NearZero the biggest company Department of Computer Science excuse of protecting his intel- in the world should have lead to at the University of Canterbury lectual property. Many people some scepticism. from 1987 to 2000. Since 2000 he have been harmed, especially the has been a software developer in investors. Moreover, this type of • Google the terms ‘data Christchurch. He is also secretary of the NZ Skeptics. case is not good for the reputa- compression’ and ‘scam’. tion of the IT industry, which struggles to attract investment.

chair-entities

The changing of the guard

After 17 years as chair-entity of the NZ Skeptics, Vicki Hyde has stepped down. Annette Taylor talks to her about life, the universe and taniwhas.

ICKI Hyde can’t quite re- amusement that has served well seriously all the time. Which is Vmember who came up with over the years.” a good point to start from.” the title. She’s sure Hugh Young had a hand in it, and possibly Some journalists stop dead in The standard charge she often Frank Haden as well. their tracks when hearing the title hears is that skeptics are naysay- for the first time, she says. ers, boring or humourless. “I “The question was should it always say no, we’re actually “Many newspapers and TV be madam chair, or chair person, excited about the wonder and won’t use it; they don’t seem to or what. This was at our AGM in mystery of the universe. We be able to cope with the term, 1992. Someone suggested chair- just want to get rid of things that and just say ‘chair’. Ginette being, but it was pointed out that aren’t real mysteries, so we can McDonald accused us of being didn’t allow for the possibility delight in those that are.” there might be an incorporeal politically correct. However it’s soul. Then we went for Chair-en- a way of saying we’re not com- When it comes down to de- tity. It was a bit of light-hearted pletely po-faced about things, fining exactly what a skeptic is, and that we don’t take ourselves number 97 – spring 2010 chair-entities she points out the political at- about everything and anything “We have changed from the titudes of members are diverse, under the sun.” early days, and particularly over and there’s a surprising range of the last few years. Back then religious diversity as well. Vicki’s introduction to the the demographics of the group Skeptics was as a freelance was late 50s, early 60s, and it “We’re not all hard-line athe- writer for Pacific Way maga- remained that way for some ists. Our brief is not to go after zine, covering the firewalk at time.” religious beliefs per se. If some- the Christchurch conference in one wants to believe in God, 1990. Now members are younger, that’s fine, it’s a belief. Other- and there are more women in- volved, which she puts down to the internet. “We’re able to do more outreach; there are email groups and blogs, podcasts... We have 1500 people on our Skeptic Alert email list, three times more than paid members.” Then there are initiatives like , which has provided another place for like-minded people to meet. “I think we’re still attracting the same kind of people, but through different ways. People who are interested in the world and how it works, and want to sit down and chat.”

Coming up trumps: Vicki Hyde holds her Skeptic trump card, presented to As for our fellow kiwis, she her at the conference. thinks we’re a fairly down-to- earth bunch. “I don’t know if it’s our colonial heritage or the wise we just become blurred in “I got talking with Denis Dutton and others, over that kiwi attitude of the proof is in with the rationalists and human- the pudding, but in general we’re ists. But if someone comes up weekend, and thought this is interesting.” a bit more pragmatic. What is with what they say is a piece of interesting is we don’t feel under Noah’s Ark, that’s scientifically She started helping with the siege from the religious right as testable.” magazine, and in 1992 was nom- much as Americans do.” She was a little sad when the inated for the chair, which had been held by Warwick Don. While attending the World society’s formal name, the New Skeptics Conference in Burbank, Zealand Committee for the Sci- “Denis raced off to The Do- California in 2002 she says there entific Investigation of Claims minion and said ‘Look, look, was a distinct feeling a war was of the Paranormal, was changed we’ve got a new chairperson being fought. “There’s a strong to the NZ Skeptics in 2007. at the Skeptics. She’s female, overlap between the rationalists “It was especially valuable in pregnant and of Maori descent; and skeptics there; they have interviews; I was able to use it how much more politically cor- very close ties. We’re living in to point out what it was we did, rect can you get?’” a country where, in the last elec- and didn’t do. As a consequence tion debate, both the then-prime I’m still explaining to people that Vicki, who was 30, says it was minister and the leader of the no, we don’t go after capitalism, like inheriting a whole group of opposition could both say, no, we or religion, we’re not sceptical aunts and uncles.

page  chair-entities don’t believe in God, on national is that this was a 14-year-old, we were supporting a convicted TV, and it’s no biggie.” who was able to make some form child abuser, explaining the of informed decision on his own background. As the saying goes, She will continue as the soci- treatment. And they were doing ‘for evil to succeed requires only ety’s media spokesperson. “This it on religious grounds. We seem that good people do nothing’. requires the ability to be rung at to have a lot less tolerance for For people to be exploited by 6am on Friday the 13th by some or the latest would-be morning radio journo who wants cancer cure, all it needs is for to talk about superstitions. And people not to ask ‘where is the to be nice to them.” evidence?’” The job requires knowing a lot The Skeptics are not here to about all sorts of things. “Pseu- castigate Granny for reading doscience and the paranormal tea leaves, Hyde says. “But if a can present in all sorts of ways. bounces up on national Most of the time I have an idea TV, talking about a missing what they’re talking about but child case, and promotes their sometimes they’ll ask a question two-for-one ticket offer for their about some obscure cult, or a upcoming tour – you have to multi-level marketing venture.” Tempting fate: Vicki Hyde and Gold point out that people are being break mirrors at the 2010 conference. exploited.” The issues have changed over The fact that both were caught up in the years, she says. The original the Christchurch earthquake three The future looks good for the weeks later is surely a coincidence. focus was on psychics, UFOs Skeptics, she unhesitatingly pre- and astrology, with the occa- dicts. “There’s a whole host of sional taniwha thrown in. that, oddly enough, than we do bloggers out there, and podcasts “We’ve shifted more and for people who are trying alter- and the like, that are pulling in more into questions of what’s native health.” people and ideas. I think this the potential harm of, say, an al- Another “lowlight” was the can work really well with our ternative medicine. While there false memory fad of the 90s, with more formal group. We are use- is much we can laugh at, some its offshoot claims of Satanic ful because we have established things make you very sober, such ritual abuse and organised abuse communication channels and as the Liam Williams-Holloway of young children. long-term relationships with the case. In addition to the wee boy media, as well as a small fighting dying, the fallout of this was “We knew it was coming; fund. And the informal groups that oncologists started getting we’d seen it first in the US. I are great because they provide parents asking about other cures predicted we’d have something social connections, enthusiasm for their child’s cancer. It actu- similar within six months and and new blood. Which,” she ally increased interest in these the Peter Ellis case broke several says, “is one of the reasons why claimed cures and made it a lot months afterwards.” I’m looking forward to working with Gold; he’s got all that.” harder for the doctors.” The decision to donate funds It was interesting, a few years from the Skeptics to Ellis’s And, sadly, there will always later, to see the reaction to a Pa- defence resulted in at least one be a need for skeptics. cific Island family charged with member resigning, she remem- bers. “This step was taken not “It can be frustrating, but you manslaughter over their 14-year- just keep boxing on. If you can old son’s death. “He decided to because we all felt implicitly he was innocent, but that there get one person to stop and think remove himself from the cancer about something, it’s worth- treatment. They were then put were sufficient questions which should have been raised and had while. That’s all we try to do. through the courts. The only dif- To get people to think.” ferences I can see with what they not been. We felt we needed to were doing, and Liam’s parents, take a stand. I wrote an article for the NZ Skeptic about why number 97 – spring 2010 chair-entities A new golden age?

His name is Gold, he describes himself as a post-goth Discordian web developer, and one day soon he hopes to be homeless. He’s also the new chair entity of NZ Skeptics. Annette Taylor finds out more.

he phone is not the instru- or so picking up; otherwise and says it’s all about chaos and Tment of choice for Gold. it wasn’t too bad.” destruction and a sense of hu- The 39-year-old suggests Skype, mour. although his webcam is not While we’re talking he pauses working; it’s been a hectic few and waits for an aftershock to “We worship Eris and have a days in Christchurch, in the af- pass. Eris, the Greek Goddess Bible equivalent and tenets we termath of the earthquake. of chaos, is having a grand old follow, such as that one must time. eat a hot dog on a Friday, which insults almost every religion you can think of, including our own. “It’s a joke religion, which is one of the things that completely sold me on it. It’s a fun thing, and nice to have someone to blame when things go wrong.” And “post-goth”? “I used to be a goth. You know - black clothing, the make-up, piercings, tattoos, the great mu- sic. It was a phase, so now I refer to myself as post-goth. I’ve kept the dress sense; the piercings are not quite as obvious anymore. The tats are a little harder to get rid of. I still have the attitude, which is what it was all about, really. And the music is still great.” Apart from five years in Aus- tralia, Gold has lived in New Zealand all his life, much of it in Under cover: Gold models an umbrella (indoors) at the 2010 Skeptics Canterbury. And for most of that conference. time, he has been a sceptic. Currently an atheist, he didn’t Flatting – temporarily – in “When anything goes wrong, have a religious background of Richmond, 2km north-east of when things don’t got to plan, any sort. “And it wasn’t until the city, a chimney collapsed and that’s Eris,” Gold says. early 2000 that I sort of came things were “up and down and all He discovered Discordianism over the place. We spent a day while at Canterbury University To Page 12

page 11 newsfront Compiled by David Riddell Fake bomb detector leads to deaths

ne of the main reasons for According to the Times On- the sixth minute carries as much Othe success Al Qaeda has line (January 22), McCormick weight as one in the 76th. had in getting bombs past check- believes a lot of the opposition to points in Iraq is that the main the device is driven by its rather “We can also instantly recall device used to detect explosives primitive appearance. “We are any gross misfortune that has is a uselss fake (NZ Herald, 24 working on a new model that has befallen our favourite sides but July). flashing lights,” he said. struggle to dredge up any memo- ries of decisions that go in our The Iraqi government paid favour.” large sums for the detector, originally produced in Britain ‘Lady Luck’ has no The same applies to poker by a company whose manag- favourites players, who without exception think they’re better at the game ing director, Jim McCormick, Sports writer and poker devo- than they are, and who sincerely has been arrested on suspicion tee Ian Anderson had some very believe most losses are the result of fraud. Export of the device, refreshing things to say about of incredibly bad luck while formally known as the ADE-651 luck in his Waikato Times col- victories come simply through but called a ‘sonar’ in Iraq, has umn (28 August). now been banned. outplaying their opponents in “Many people will tell you,” the hand. The detector, a black plastic he writes, “that great teams “Yet a trawl through hand his- grip with a silver-coloured wand create their own luck. Many tories will glaringly reveal that out the front, supposedly receives people, of course, are idiots. each player ... receives his fair its power from the operator, who Luck doesn’t get created – it’s a share of bad beats and fortunate shuffles his feet to generate static random act of variance – and it suck-outs.” Presumably these electricity. If explosives or fire- doesn’t favour one team or the are technical poker terms. arms are present, the wand is other, be they great, woeful or meant to incline towards them, middling.” like a water diviner’s rod. The All Blacks, in the mid- UFO ‘Trick of the light’ The only electronic component dle of an unprecedented run is a small disc, similar to that at- of test match victories, had A famous UFO filmed in tached to clothes in shops to stop just squeaked home against the the Australian desert in 1964 people taking them without pay- Springboks in Johannesburg, has been explained in recently ing. Although each device costs thanks to a try which the referee, released British Ministry of De- US$50 ($68) to make, Iraq spent on another day, might not have fence (MOD) files as a trick of US$85 million on them in 2008 given. If it hadn’t been awarded, the light (Stuff, 5 August). and 2009. the All Blacks would have been When footage of the Blue An Iraqi police chief said left licking their wounds – much Streak rocket tests at Woomera privately the police knew the as they were in the 2007 World were broadcast by the BBC, tel- detectors did not work but went Cup when the critical refereeing evision viewers were “shocked” on using them because they were decisions went the other way. to see what appeared to be a fly- ordered to. The presumption is Sports fans have very selec- ing saucer near the launch pad. that somebody was paid a bribe tive memories, Anderson says. Many wrote to the MOD asking to buy them and does not want While people tend to focus on for an explanation. to admit they are junk. They incidents that happen late in a Then, when documentary remain in use today. game, a wrongly awarded try in maker Jenny Randles went to investigate the footage she found number 97 – spring 2010 newsfront it was missing from the National exactly how prevalent it is,” Dr you stick the needles to get Archives. An MP who saw the Tassell said. a response from acupuncture documentary then launched an – it’s more about stimulating inquiry. They also wanted to know endorphin release than directing what variations existed and energy flows. The newly released files, how- whether there were cultural ever, show that the people who dimensions. About 15 people made the film at the time were had already shared their experi- clear that the ‘UFO’ was an inter- ences, but they were hoping to Toxic slugs create panic nal camera fault. The ‘missing’ attract about 100 participants 21 Reports of toxic sea slugs on canister of film had been stored at years and older for the two-year beaches around Auckland are the Imperial War Museum, rather study. taking on an almost hysterical than the National Archives. Dr Tassell’s interest was flavour with news items about The incident is just one of sparked after an experience of them and their ‘spread’ appear- thousands of UFO sightings her own, when she lay down ing almost daily (eg TV3 News, investigated by the MOD. The after feeling unwell, and recalled 3 September, NZ Herald, 9 latest bunch of files covers more travelling down a tunnel with a September, Radio New Zealand than 5000 pages of correspond- bright light at the end. News, 25 September). ence on them. The animal in question, Pleu- David Clarke, author of The robranchaea maculata, is per- UFO Files and a senior lecturer Alt med scrutinised haps the most common and widespread sea slug in the coun- in journalism at Sheffield Hal- It was good to see Victoria lam University, said people who try. It is found all around the University’s Professor Shaun coast, in many habitats from low believe in UFOs were unlikely Holt giving a public lecture on to be convinced. tide to a depth of 250 metres. It the potential dangers of alterna- gained notoriety in 2009 after “The truth is that people see tive cancer therapies recently some dogs on an Auckland beach things in the sky that they can’t (Dominion Post, 1 September). were poisoned after eating some explain, but the vast majority Chiropractors were good at that had washed up. have got simple explanations. helping people with bad backs It has always been known that That is the truth, but they won’t but would not help cancer, reiki accept that.” the slugs are toxic – that’s how was “chanting mumbo jumbo”, they can survive without a shell reflexology was “absolute non- – but it’s since been learned that sense”, and colonic irrigation the toxicity is due to tetrodotox- Massey to study NDEs was dangerous, he said. in, which is originally produced If you’ve ever had a Near Professor Holt was however by bacteria, and known from Death Experience, Massey Uni- reported as stating that yoga several marine animals including versity researchers would like to could be effective for breast can- fugu (Japanese puffer fish) and talk to you (Dominion Post, 27 cer patients, though the article blue-ringed octopus. August). didn’t say how. Taking ginger It appears that the toxicity was as effective as pharmaceuti- Psychologist Natasha Tassell levels vary in different areas, and cal drugs for patients experienc- there’s now quite a bit of work and sociologist Mary Murray ing nausea and vomiting. are carrying out New Zealand’s going on to learn more about first large-scale study of the phe- He also said acupuncture, these fascinating animals (Rod- nomenon. They estimate up to a massage therapy, aromatherapy ney Times, 28 September). It’s quarter of those who have come and art therapy could help al- a pity it appears to take a certain close to dying may recall a form leviate symptoms such as stress, level of hype to get some basic of near-death experience. “It’s anxiety, pain and depression. He research done on even the most a known phenomenon, but we might perhaps have mentioned common of the animals that live don’t know how it occurs and that it doesn’t matter where in and around this country.

page 13 chair-entities

From Page 9 Which is a good reason to be they may be a medical doctor, or across skepticism as a move- intentionally without a home. a lawyer, and have something to ment, or way of thinking. Up add. They can also flag if they “One of the things about the are active or passive skeptics, until then I was one of those job I’m doing is that all I need people who didn’t really know whether they want to be involved is a laptop and net access. I can in particular issues.” there was a label for it.” work anywhere. I can travel He was living in Sydney at around, and pop up somewhere. One issue he would like the the time, and a close friend was My plan is to stay in backpack- society to focus on this year is a full-on, practising witch. ers, and maybe build them a ACC’s priorities. “As everyone website instead of paying for knows, they’re looking at mak- “While it was kind of cool, I a room. So, I can be a roving ing various cutbacks but on, I thought that yeah, no, this may catalyst for getting Skeptics in think, the wrong things. They be interesting, but it’s not real. It the Pub meetings set up all over still subsidise acupuncture, but just didn’t gel.” the country.” are cutting back on hearing aids What galvanised his thinking for elderly people. It’s some- He was aware of the NZ Skep- thing the society could have more were skeptical podcasts tics when he arrived back in New and blogs, which he started rather a large impact on, if we Zealand. “Yes, I’d come across can get it done right.” to “passively consume” while the website, and I knew Vicki. I overseas. joined, but it didn’t seem terribly He’d also like to see more use He returned to New Zealand active in a social sense.” made of social microblogging tools like Twitter. in 2005, and headed straight Skeptics in the Pub and the NZ back to Christchurch where he Skeptics will continue to remain “Recently I was involved with now works developing websites. separate from each other. “Obvi- the ’ cam- And, last year, started the first ously they have similar agendas, paign with the Australian Vac- Skeptics in the Pub meetings. but they serve different purposes. cination Network, who should “I came across this while in In the pub you have a place really be called the anti-vaccina- Sydney. It an idea that started where you can say whatever you tion network. They’re getting a in the UK, about 11 years ago, want, about anything and not real hammering over there. By as a lecture series. Afterwards, worry about libel. The society using Twitter, a whole bunch of people wanted more of them, so has assets that can be taken off it, us were able to join in, in real they continued. It became a very so has to be more cautious.” time, and make a difference. social thing and started to spread It’s powerful crowd-sourcing across the UK, into the US and As chair-entity, there are a stuff.” Australia.” few areas he wants to focus on, and one revolves around, little Similarly, the homeopathic But not in New Zealand. “I surprise, computers. overdose utilised the net to good was working in the central city, advantage. “This was started away from my previous social He’d like to work on the mem- by the Merseyside Skeptics, in group, and thought bugger it, I’d bers area of the current website, the UK, and it pretty much went give it a go. I paid some money so details can be added. around the world. We got to kick and set up the first meeting, at the “Take the case of homeopathy, it off, in Christchurch, because of Twisted Hop. We got about 35 one of my pet peeves. Someone the time zones. And that led to people along and it’s kept going might find a paper touting the the NZ Council of Homeopaths since then. It’s a nice way to get latest proof for it. We can put a admitting on national TV that together with like-minded people link to that paper up, but at the there is no active ingredient in and have a drink.” same time we can add other sites their so-called medicines. But Now there are meetings in that might have done research that campaign was run online Auckland, Wellington and Dun- debunking it. And members as well.” edin as well, but he would like can list if they have any special to see more. interests or skills on a subject, so number 97 – spring 2010 chair-entities

He acknowledges Vicki’s rat- at university in the 1980s. “Then talk about, but he tends to save like cunning. “She’s a clever she picked up the chair role. I it for face-to-face. one, no doubt. I found out was Dictator of Kaos at Canter- recently she spent some time bury University in 1996. Now So, if he pops up at a pub in grooming me for this role.” I’ve picked up the chair.” your town go and have a yarn with the new incarnation of the There is another connection Coincidence? He thinks so. Skeptics’ chair-entity. It’s bound between the two. Vicki started “But it’s very cool. And maybe it to be illuminating. KAOS, Killing As an Organised means I have the right qualifica- Annette Taylor is a freelance Sport (in which participants are tions for the job.” writer and former editor of the NZ given contracts to assassinate Skeptic. one another with toy guns), while As to the name Gold, there’s a story there which he’s happy to bent spoon

Animal welfare issues whacked with Bent Spoon

Vicki Hyde

ONCERNS over animal We had lots of members, issues for their animals, and Cwelfare issues on farms including a number of vets, show that women can succeed have seen Rural Women New contact us very concerned that in the hard graft of real farming. Zealand and rapped Rural Women New Zealand Fonterra should publicly distance with the Bent Spoon, the annual has applauded the use of magic itself from this or it will cop more recognition of gullibility and a water for treating serious cattle criticism for tacitly supporting lack of critical thinking awarded ailments, and that this potentially unacceptable New Zealand farm by the NZ Skeptics. dangerous practice is apparently practices. supported by a third of farmers Rural Women New Zealand supplying Fonterra. Rather than There have been many studies gave the Supreme prize in its En- lauding the determination of the of homeopathy, but the only ones terprising Rural Women Award business owner to succeed in the which show any convincing to Homeopathic Farm Support, face of little belief in alterna- results are those produced by a company which follows the tive methods of healing, Rural homeopathic businesses and homeopathic practice of diluting Women New Zealand should be other vested interests. This is substances until there is no active calling on their members to think akin to reading tobacco company material left and then claiming long and hard about the welfare journals which say that smoking that the water somehow “re- is fine for your health. Studies members” what was once in that have been conducted by it. Homeopathic Farm Support independent parties with provides a line of such prod- proper controls and peer ucts, claiming that homeopathy review, whether on animals can be used to “prevent and or humans, have not found treat symptoms of acute any benefit from homeopathic and chronic animal treatments. whatstheharm.net, a ailments” including website tracking the physical mastitis, post-calv- and economic harm of a ing haemorrhage, lack of critical thinking, pinkeye, scours, has over 400 case studies first aid and even of people who have died emotional prob- or been harmed by a lems in livestock. belief in homeopathy.

page 15 bent spoon

We know that animals respond water. Let´s hope that if there´s supported by our state-funded to human contact, and that this a foot-and-mouth outbreak we television. can certainly play a role in the don´t have calls to treat it homeo- stories of response to alternative pathically – that could very well 3 News reporter Jane Lus- treatments, in much the same kill our country´s agricultural combe gets a Bravo for her in- way that people respond to such. reputation for good. formative look at the belief that But we can´t afford to let treat- amber teething necklaces leach ment of serious health issues A central principle of home- a substance to help babies with reply on wishful thinking or the opathy is that every being is pain and depression. unique and the treatment must be placebo effect. That´s clearly All too often we see television unethical. tailored to the individual on all levels, physical, emotional and reporters take the easy option A discussion paper on the mental. The NZ Skeptics have and swallow claims with nary a ethics of homeopathics in vet- previously called upon the New raised eyebrow. It was great to erinary use noted that “it would Zealand Council of Homeopaths see a report where some research also seem clearly unethical to to join them in criticising phar- had been undertaken to show employ an unproven therapy macies for selling homeopathic the claims were unfounded and such as homeopathy in cases products. NZHC did not respond a clear warning that the practice where an acceptable and effec- to the request. itself was a dangerous one. tive treatment already exists or Kate Newton of the Dominion where the patient is at risk for The Homeopathic Council should be concerned at products Post also gained a Bravo for her greater suffering if the unproven item on Victoria University´s therapy fails.” being flogged off over the coun- ter with no questions asked other embarrassment over the home- Others have raised the concern than `do you want vitamins with opathy course it was offering that the use of any substance, that?’ We´re appalled that you in its distance education pro- homeopathic or otherwise, with- can sell water for $10 a teaspoon, gramme. The NZ Skeptics have out any actual data or evidence- and it´s distressing that this sort been concerned at the increasing based diagnostics, is a form of of exploitation is also being prac- willingness of universities to unapproved animal experimen- tised in our farming sector. provide facilities for the promo- tation. tion of touring psychics, neuro- In addition to the Bent Spoon, linguistic programmers and other Fonterra has stated publicly the NZ Skeptics have praise for purveyors of dubious services. that nearly 3000 of its 10,500 a number of attempts to encour- farmer shareholders are Homeo- age critical thinking over the Kate Newton also took the pathic Farm Support custom- past year. trouble to point out that ho- ers, and Fonterra has worked meopathic products are watered with the company on organic Lynley Boniface gains a Bravo down to the point where no programmes. Fonterra did not Award for her Dominion Post molecules of active ingredients respond to repeated inquiries column, “Why psychics should remain. The homeopathic indus- from the NZ Skeptics regarding butt out of the Aisling Symes try is very careful to downplay their level of support for alterna- case”, castigating TVNZ for that aspect in their products and tive treatments and the animal giving airtime to self-proclaimed services, and it´s an important welfare issues that result. psychic Deb Webber to promote point to get across to the general her national tour and speculate public. Most homeopathic users Organic farmers don´t have to on the then-unfolding tragedy of think they are getting something buy into the wishful thinking of the missing Auckland toddler. in the expensive sugar pills and homeopathy in order to be suc- water drops they are buying, but cessful. And if they want to build We see distraught families ex- they aren´t. a serious export market, they ploited regularly by the psychic can´t afford to ignore the welfare industry. It just adds insult to The awards were psychically issues involved in treating suf- injury to see such exploitainment conferred at this year’s confer- fering animals with nothing but ence dinner. number 97 – spring 2010 conference Scenes from a conference Rayna Ramsay produced a photographic record of this year’s NZ Skeptics conference. More images (and colour!) at www.skeptics.org.nz

Clockwise from top left: with the raffle book; Chicane the magician at the Saturday dinner; Taking it all in at a conference session; Bad luck – Robert Taylor wears a hat (!) indoors; The rain finally stops; Start ‘em young – Evie spills the salt.

page 17 cartwright inquiry The Unfortunate Experiment: Revisiting the Cartwright Report

Michelle Coffey

This article is a response to ‘Truth is the daughter of time, and not of authority’: Aspects of the Cart- wright Affair by Martin Wallace, NZ Skeptic 96.

HE CARTWRIGHT In- The report of the Committee A 1961 compilation of stud- Tquiry1 was held after the of Inquiry has withstood many ies from Paris, Copenhagen, publication of “An Unfortunate challenges, including judicial Stockholm, Warsaw, and New Experiment at National Wom- reviews and many articles alleg- York showed CIS progressed to en’s” in Metro magazine in June ing its findings to be flawed. Yet invasive cancer in 28.3 percent 1987. The events leading up to there have been allegations of a of cases (p 23). As at 1958 the the publication of the article and miscarriage of justice, charges official policy was “... treatment the findings of the subsequent of a witch-hunt, even a feminist of carcinoma of the cervix Stage inquiry have been contested ever conspiracy. 0, [CIS] should be adequate cone since. biopsy ... provided the immedi- Where does this leave Dr ate follow-up is negative and ... The inquiry heard from 67 wit- McIndoe and others who had the pathologist is satisfied that nesses, many doctors, 84 patients mounting concerns for so many the cone biopsy has included all and relatives, and four nurses. In years? Why did so many women the carcinomatous tissue” (p 26). addition, 1200 patient records develop cancer? In this article I Standard treatment of the time were reviewed, with 226 used as will explore the findings of the involved excising all affected exhibits. The final report released Cartwright Inquiry, its context, tissue and the ‘conservative’ in August 1988 has had a long- the research and the criticisms, treatment of conisation was in lasting impact. It recommended and attempt to find a more nu- use well prior to 1966. many changes in the practice of anced understanding of the medicine and research, including “unfortunate experiment” and its Green’s initial proposal stated measures designed to protect pa- ongoing effects. Page numbers “... It is considered that the time tients’ rights and a national cervi- in parentheses refer to pages in has come to diagnose and treat cal screening programme. These the Cartwright Report. CIN3 and by lesser procedures than hith- have since been implemented. CIS are interchangeable terms erto, a selected group of patients The Medical Council announced for a lesion of the cervical epi- with positive (A3-A5) smears. in 1990 that four doctors were thelium which can be a precursor Including the four 1965 cases, to face disciplinary charges re- to invasive cancer. there are at present under clini- sulting from the inquiry’s find- cal, colposcopic, and cytological The Findings of the Inquiry ings of disgraceful conduct and observation, 8 patients who have conduct unbecoming a medical The report found that Green, not had a cone or ring biopsy. practitioner. Charges against Dr rather than developing a hy- All of these continue to have Herbert Green were dropped due pothesis, aimed to prove a point positive smears in which there to ill health. (p 21) that even at the time is no clinical or colposcopic was known not to be the case. evidence of invasive cancer”... number 97 – spring 2010 cartwright inquiry

The minutes then record that often receiving general anaes- to settle the question as to what “... Professor Green said his thetics in the process (p 42-49). happens to carcinoma in situ is aim was to attempt to prove that A collection of cervices from to follow adequately diagnosed carcinoma-in-situ (CIS) is not a foetuses and stillborn infants and but untreated lesions indefinitely premalignant disease”... (p 22). another of baby uteri in wax were ... it is being attempted at NWH This appeared to come about be- collected by Green for research by means of 2 series of cases. cause of concern about unneces- which was later abandoned. This (I) A group of 27 women ... are sarily extensive surgery for CIS did not appear to comply with the being followed, without ‘treat- between 1949 and 1962. During Human Tissue Act (1964) as no ment’, by clinical, colposcopic, this period, some centres were consent was obtained from the and cytologic examination after beginning to use cone biopsy parents of the stillborn infants initial histological diagnosis of as effective treatment; however (p 141). carcinoma in situ ... has been there were limitations to its use established by punch biopsy ... (p 27). As part of an earlier 1963 trial (II) A group of 25 women who to test whether abnormal cytol- have had a hysterectomy (4 for There were some questions ogy in women later developing cervical carcinoma in situ) and over whether the work was a CIS or invasive cancer was who now have histologically- research project. The inquiry present at birth (pp 34 & 140), proven vaginal carcinoma in concluded this was the case and 2,244 new-born babies had their situ, has been accumulated ...” that a research protocol, how- vaginas swabbed without formal This was done semi-randomly, ever flawed, was put in place (p consent from the parents (there with cases presenting themselves 69). Green published in peer- was a decision to abandon this fortuitously. reviewed journals on his hy- trial soon after it started but this pothesis and findings. By 1969, wasn’t communicated to nursing The outcome for the group three cases of invasive disease staff until 1966). of 25 who were included in the had occurred in patients with punch biopsy “special series” positive cytology monitored for Procedures such as vaginal was summarised in the McIndoe more than a year, and this should examinations and IUD inser- et al (1984) paper. Nine out of have made it clear that following tions/removals on hysterectomy 10 women who were monitored patients with persistent CIS was cases were performed by stu- with continuing positive smears unsafe (p 52). dents without patient knowledge developed invasive cancer. Only or consent while they were under one out of 15 women who had Green then explained those anaesthetic (p 172). There was a normal follow-up cytology lat- patients by concluding that further study on carcinoma of the er developed invasive cancer. they’d had invasive cancer that cervix treatment, where patients While Coney and Bunkle may was missed at the outset. The re- either had radiotherapy alone or have made a mistake, it’s clear port contends this was dangerous hysterectomy and radiation (p the judge didn’t. The report to the patients as it demonstrated 170). The method of randomisa- states: “Green’s 1966 proposal that the proposal was incapable tion was by coin toss. was not a randomised control of testing the hypothesis. These The Research trial, but it was experimental patients were reclassified by research combined with patient Green and the patients removed The idea that patients were care” (p 63). from the study (p 55). In addi- divided into two experimental tion, patients over the age of 35 groups arose from McIndoe et Green’s interpretation of the were included in the research in al (1984)2. The patients were data in his 1974 paper is suspect, breach of the protocol (p 49). divided retrospectively into having concluded that the pro- gression rate was 7-10/750 (0.9 There were many subsequent two groups which overlapped strongly but not completely with to 1.3 percent) or 6/96 (6.3 per- issues, including lack of patient cent) of ‘incompletely treated’ consent (p 136). Patients also groups defined by Green, that he called “special series”. In his lesions (p 54). These were ex- had to return for repeated tests plained by suggesting that either and other invasive procedures, 1969 paper, cited in the report (p 40-41) he stated: “The only way invasive cancer was missed at

page 19 cartwright inquiry the start, or over-diagnosed at slides were re-read and excluded ceded by punch biopsy (7) and the end. Dr Jordan (expert wit- are considered. wedge biopsy alone (7). Twelve ness) deemed this interpretation out of 817 (1.5 percent) of group incorrect as of the 750 cases, 96 McIndoe et al (1984) cov- 1 patients developed invasive had continuing positive cytol- ered the follow-up data for cancer. Given the lengthy fol- ogy, meaning that the other 654 948 patients with a histologi- low-up with negative cytology patients could be considered free cal diagnosis of CIS patients for group 1 patients, the authors of disease. Of that 96, 52 patients who had been followed for a concluded these represented the had not been assessed further, minimum of five years (Figure development of new carcinoma. making it impossible to know 1); there was a further paper There were marked differences whether or not this group already in 1986 regarding CIS of the in the completeness of excision had unsuspected invasion. Of the vulva. The same method used between the two groups and the 44 patients remaining with ongo- by Dr Green to group women second group shows markedly ing carcinoma in situ who had by cytology after diagnosis and different results, with 29/131 Management Group 1 Group 1 Group 2 Group 2 No. of Development No. of Development patients invasion patients invasion Cone biopsy and amputation cervix Punch and/or wedge, later cone biopsy 131 2 53 4 Cone biopsy 448 7 35 10 Amputation cervix 6 Total hysterectomy Punch and/or wedge biopsy, later TH 34 4 Cone, later TH 156 2 29 6 Primary TH 27 Other Outpatient punch biopsy only 6 1 5 5 Punch, later wedge biopsy 4 3 2 Wedge biopsy only 5 2 2 Total 817 12 131 29

Figure 1: Detailed Patient Management Source: Mcindoe et al. (1984). (TH = Total hysterectomy) more investigations, seven were treatment was used, but using (22 percent or 24.8-fold higher found with invasive carcinoma. the correct denominators and chance) with positive cytology The incidence of known pro- the original diagnosis. Patients developing invasive cancer. At gression was therefore 7/44 (16 who were diagnosed with inva- 10 years this was 18 percent ris- percent), which approximates sive cancer within one year were ing to 36 percent after 20 years, McIndoe et al (1984) findings. excluded to avoid the possibil- irrespective of the initial man- This means that the proportion ity the cancer had been missed agement or histologic complete- of invasive cancer cases in those initially. The management was ness of excision. This needs to inadequately treated was much cone biopsy or amputation of the be explained, as those figures higher compared with those who cervix in 673 patients, with 250 strongly suggest the progression had returned to negative cytol- managed by hysterectomy. The of CIS to invasion when it is ogy, even before any cases where only biopsies in 25 women were and was a totally curable lesion. punch biopsy (11), wedge pre- The answer is that a prospective number 97 – spring 2010 cartwright inquiry investigation, as done by Green, McCredie et al (2010)4 de- where the doctor was the arbiter has to establish that invasive scribed the management and of the best course of action for disease is not present, while outcomes for women during the the patient, was one major issue conserving affected tissue that period 1965-74 and makes com- to emerge from the report. Col- is required for later study. The parisons with women diagnosed leagues tended to be very reluc- argument has been posed that 1955-64 and 1975-76. This tant to intrude upon this, and this women in the second group did showed that women diagnosed meant that the proposal could get cone biopsies and hyster- with CIN3 in 1965-74 were less continue with little oversight ectomies. This ignores the fact likely to have treatment with or intervention. McIndoe had that while many women were curative intent (51 percent vs mounting concerns, particularly treated with various procedures, 95 percent and 85 percent), had after 1969, which were disre- there was evidence of continu- more follow-up biopsies, were garded or treated lightly. ing disease, demonstrating that more likely to have positive the intervention was inadequate. cytology during follow-up and These concerns were shared This was not followed up, posing positive smears that were not by pathologist-in-charge Dr a high risk of development of followed by curative treatment McLean, and were raised inter- invasive disease. within six months, as well as a nally with Medical Superintend- higher risk of cancer of the cer- ent Dr Warren, who consulted This differs from group 1 pa- vix or vaginal vault. with the Superintendent-in- tients, who were successfully Chief, Dr Moody and an internal treated at the outset. It’s pertinent Those women initially man- working party set up to look at to point out that the Cartwright aged by punch or wedge biopsy the issue in 1975. Twenty-nine Report did not rely on this study alone in the period 1965-74 had cases that had developed inva- (or the Metro article) to reach a cancer risk 10 times higher sive disease were referred to it; its conclusions, but on review of that women treated with inten- however only 13 were examined, patient records. tion to cure. This was despite and having set up its own terms the 1955-64 group being largely of reference it only considered There have been two follow-up 3 unscreened, which would have whether the protocol had been studies. McCredie et al (2008) delayed diagnosis. This study is adhered to and disregarded examined medical records, cytol- important as it shows the medical concerns about patient safety ogy and histopathology for all experience of the women, where (p 83). women diagnosed with CIN3 they were subjected to many in- between 1955 and 1976, whose terventions that were not meant The 1966 proposal effectively treatment was reviewed by ju- to treat but rather to monitor. ceased when McIndoe withdrew dicial inquiry. This paper gave colposcopic services and Green a direct estimate of the rate of Whistle blowing reverted to cone biopsy in most progression from CIN3 to inva- new cases (p 88), but it was never sive cancer. For 143 women that Scientific misconduct hap- formally terminated. While were managed by only punch or pens, and for those trying to ad- Green himself did not take any dress it the risks are high. Brian wedge biopsy the cumulative 5 steps to prevent the review of incidence was 31.3 percent at Martin looked at several cases, records by McIndoe and col- 30 years and 50.3 percent in a and stated: “In each case it was leagues, Bonham did, and wrote subgroup who had persistent hard to mobilize institutions to a letter to the Medical Superin- disease at 24 months. take action against prestigious tendent (p 92). figures. Formal procedures, even The cancer risk for 593 women when invoked, were slow and There are some important who received adequate treatment often indecisive.” lessons to be learned from this, and who were treated conven- including that those with the au- tionally for recurrent disease was McIndoe and others encoun- thority to deal with the situation 0.7 percent at 30 years. These tered similar difficulties and should make the best effort to findings support McIndoe et al ultimately failed to get Green’s achieve a balanced view of the (1984) and extend the period of proposal reviewed. The concept situation and assess it fairly to al- follow-up. of “clinical freedom” (p 127), low the claimant a fair hearing.

page 21 cartwright inquiry

Conclusions nurses are meant to be patient The report couldn’t have been advocates. written without the assistance of The potential risks of Green’s the medical community as expert proposal outweighed any ben- This was also about power. witnesses and advisors. It’s efits such as avoiding hysterec- The really unfortunate thing not surprising that there would tomy or cone biopsy. Invasive is that medical responsibilities be loyalty for a colleague, but cancer could not be ruled out to patients are almost totally perhaps instead of attempting because there were poor safe- ignored in the midst of the ar- to rehabilitate Green it’s time guards against the risk of pro- gument, when they should be McIndoe and his colleagues gression. This was unethical brought to the forefront. Like- were vindicated. Morality did from the outset, regardless of not totally fail and attempts the issue of informed consent. were made to prevent patients In addition, patients that de- The potential risks of being harmed8. veloped invasive disease had Green’s proposal outweighed their slides reclassified and any benefits... were removed by Dr Green Acknowledgements: many thanks to Dr. Margaret Mc- from the study. This would be Credie of Otago University who considered research misconduct wise respect, justice and be- assisted me with my research. then and now as it manipulated neficence were lacking for the Michelle Coffey is a Wellington the data. patients involved. No doctor Registered Nurse and treasurer of raised concerns about the lack the NZ Skeptics. It does not matter if the initial of consent, even though from motivations were sincere; they 1. The Cartwright Report: the 1950s there was the growing ultimately fail on these points. www.nsu.govt.nz/current-nsu-pro- expectation that this be sought, grammes/3233.asp This proposal had a very human particularly with participants in cost. Moreover Green’s views 2. W. A . M c i n d o e ; M . R . research. had long-term effects, including McLean; R.W. Jones; P.R. Mullins influence on undergraduate and The Medical Association 1984: J. Am. Coll. Obst. 64(4). postgraduate medical students, working party that examined 3. M.R.E. McCredie; K.J. Shar- and support for the attitude this stated that it was “regrettable ples; C. Paul; J. Baranyai; G. Med- that cervical screening was not that the trial deteriorated scien- ley; R.W. Jones; D.C. Skegg 2008: The Lancet Oncology DOI:10.1016/ worthwhile. This ‘atypical’ tifically and ethically and did not S1470-2045(08)70103-7 viewpoint was also promoted in change as scientific knowledge the scientific literature and in the advanced or as adverse results 4. M.R.E. McCredie; C. Paul; press, creating confusion within were observed”7. They found it K.J. Sharples; J. Baranyai; G. Med- ley; D.C. Skegg; R.W. Jones 2010: the medical scene and with the deplorable that patients involved A&NZ J. Obst. Gyn. DOI:10.1111/ public. did not know they were part of a j.1479-828X.2010.01170.x trial, and that it took a magazine It can be incredibly hard to ad- 5. B. Martin 1989: Thought article for it to be investigated. mit our failings and let go of old and Action 5(2), 95-102. loyalties. In the aftermath of the Unfortunately, instead of ad- 6. J. Manning (Ed.) 2009: The report many doctors objected to dressing this and examining Cartwright Papers: Essays on the cervical screening, ‘unworkable’ whether Dr Green made any Cervical Cancer Inquiry 1987-88. consent forms and the intrusion errors or misinterpretations him- Bridget Williams Books Ltd. 6 of lay committees on practice . self, the findings in McIndoe et 7. L. Bryder 2009: A History of It’s true this had negative effects al (1984) and other papers were the ‘Unfortunate Experiment” at Na- on the perception of doctors not accepted. There is the un- tional Women’s Hospital. Auckland overall, particularly in regard to fortunate implication that, rather University Press. practices that were widespread than there being mounting and 8. C. Paul 2000: BMJ 320, in hospitals at the time, and there valid concerns over decades, 499-503. were times that unfair criticisms that Green was unfairly toppled were aired. This impacted on the and the resulting inquiry was a nursing profession as well, for whitewash. number 97 – spring 2010 bioblog Oxygenated food for the brain?

Alison Campbell finds some claims about raw foods hard to swallow.

Well, yes, and so do all your deviations in form and function other bits and pieces, and they are likely to be severely pun- don’t get the oxygen from food. ished by natural selection. But As Ben Goldacre once said, even we already have those enzymes; if chlorophyll were to survive they’re manufactured in situ as the digestive process and make it required. In other words, even through to the intestine, it needs if the plant enzymes somehow light in order to photosynthesise, made it into cells intact and ca- quite apart from the fact that you pable of functioning, they’d be don’t normally absorb oxygen redundant. across the gut wall. And it’s kind of dark inside you. However, with a very few ex- ceptions, plants aren’t in the hab- The second shaky claim re- it of consuming other organisms lated to digestive enzymes. Be- so, in regard to plant cells being cause raw foods are ‘alive’ then a good source of the digestive WAS reading a couple of arti- they are full of enzymes. And so enzymes required for the proper I cles about ‘raw foods’ today. we’re told that eating them will functioning of an omnivore’s gut This is ‘raw foods’ as in ‘foods help you to digest your meals – no, I don’t think so. No. that you don’t heat above 40°C better. Some might ask, why on earth in processing them.’ It’s also Er, no. First, because when do I bother about this stuff? Af- as in, a vegetarian diet. (I do said enzymes – being proteins ter all, it’s not doing any harm. rather enjoy vegetarian food, but – hit the low pH environment But the thing is – science is so I don’t think I could eat nothing of your stomach they are highly cool, so exciting; it tells us so but, all the time; I like meat too likely to be denatured. This much about the world – why do much.) Anyway, what caught change in shape means that they people have to prostitute it in this my eye wasn’t so much the diet lose the ability to function as way? Kids (and others) are fas- programme itself but the mis-use they should, and in fact they’ll be cinated by the way their bodies’ of science to promote it. That did chopped up into amino acids like organ systems work, and I can’t rather get my goat broccoli. any other protein in your food, see why there seems to be a need Apparently you should get before being absorbed and then to provide ‘simple’ – and wrong! your kids to eat their greens used by your cells to make their – alternative ‘explanations’ when (along with the rest of the diet) own enzymes. the real thing is so wonderful. by telling them that plants do this And second – the raw foods Alison Campbell is a lecturer in wonderful thing: they turn sun- diet is plant-based. Yes, plants the Biological Sciences Department light into chlorophyll and – when at Waikato University. She writes and animals are going to have you eat it – it will give you extra Bioblog as a way of encouraging some enzymes in common. I’d oxygen. Sigh... This concept was critical thinking, looking at scien- expect that those involved in cel- tific papers that are relevant to the repeated in the second article, lular respiration and DNA repli- Level 3 curriculum and Scholar- which told me that raw (but not cation/protein synthesis would ship, and fielding questions from cooked) foods are ‘oxygenated’ readers. be very similar, for example, and thus better for your brain, because these are crucial proc- which needs to be fully oxygen- esses in any cell’s life and any ated to work properly.

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