Economics as a science An evening with Sue Nicholson Undercover for cancer NZ

number 93 - spring 2009 content editorial

Economics as a science 3 An evening with Sue Another cracker of a Nicholson 3 Newsfront 10 conference Chair-entity’s report 14

Undercover for Cancer 15 HE 2009 annual NZ Skeptics Conference in was its usual mix of good times and thought-provoking material, though Bent Spoon Award 16 T with some unique touches. The Kingsgate Hotel was a rather more Forum 17 luxurious venue than we’re used to; the few problems that arose were How the NZ Skeptics in the mostly due to the high number of late enrolments, making this one Pub got started 18 of the largest gatherings in recent years.

The vertical limit for Friday night entertainment was the first hint things would be a randomised trials 19 bit different, when a barbershop quartet, Quarter Tone, appeared to serenade us, closing with a rousing skeptical anthem. The right-hand side of the room then trounced the left side in a quiz competition, with each side in turn having to come up with an obscure question to stump the other. We all learned something, not least what a Mon- golian Death Worm can do to you.

ISSN - 1172-062X Saturday saw a huge variety of presentations, from Hugh Young’s epic poem on the evils of circumcision, a subject he has written on Contributions previously (NZ Skeptic 86), to Brian Easton’s perspectives on the Contributions are welcome and scientific status of economics (see this issue). Also in this issue is should be sent to: Loretta Marron, who put her scientific training to good use taking David Riddell on the purveyors of dodgy alternative therapies in Australia, after 122 Woodlands Rd being herself diagnosed with breast cancer. Then there was Matthew RD1 Hamilton Dentith putting conspiracy theories in their proper philosophical per- Email: [email protected] spective, John Robinson on how refutations of the Club of Rome’s Deadline for next issue: gloomy predictions don’t stand close scrutiny, and Bernard Beckett, who gave a passionate exposition of what he thinks science is, and December 10 2009 why he thinks evolutionary psychology isn’t it. Look for more of Letters for the Forum may be edited these in upcoming issues of the NZ Skeptic. Or, if you can’t wait, as space requires - up to 250 words there’s audio of many of them available through the NZ Skeptics is preferred. Please indicate the website, courtesy of the Science Media Centre. publication and date of all clippings for the Newsfront. The dinner was a memorable occasion – first the food, then a Material supplied by email or CD is skeptically themed offering from Wellington Theatresports group appreciated. The Improvisors. The Italian Renaissance song about the view from Permission is given to other non- Sarah Palin’s window and the motion of UFOs was a highlight, profit skeptical organisations to although one of the performers had a bit of trouble picking that reprint material from this publication the channeled message from Vlad the Impaler was that it’s okay to provided the author and NZ Skeptic smack your kids. are acknowledged. The main event for Sunday was the AGM, which as usual was a Opinions expressed in the Skeptic are those of the relaxed and painless exercise, followed by Matthew Gerrie on the individual authors and do not fallibility of memory, and why police line-ups may have put many necessarily represent the views of innocent people behind bars. Hugely en- NZ Skeptics (Inc.) or its officers. joyable all round, I’ll definitely be back Subscription details are available next year. from www.skeptics.org.nz or PO Box 29-492, . number 93 - spring 2009 main feature Economics as a science

Brian Easton

Economics has been called the Dismal Science. But to what extent are economics scientific, and economists scientists? This article is based on a presentation to the NZ Skeptics 2009 conference in Wellington, 26 September.

WANT to reflect on the extent Popper said the most important Some of the greatest minds of I to which economics is a sci- Platonic dialogue is The Apology the last two hundred years were ence and the extent to which it is in which Socrates reflects on economists – some were scien- not. In doing this I come from the the Delphic Oracle’s utterance tists. approach of someone who was that he is the wisest of men. He I want to begin by contrasting trained a scientist, who continues concludes that he is only wise the subtlety of economics and to think of himself as one, and because he knows how ignorant the crudity of its critics. A couple who is heavily influenced by the he is. As Isaac Newton described of examples will illustrate my philosophy of Karl Popper. I sup- himself, he was ‘only a child point. pose that makes me a sceptic. playing on the beach, while vast oceans of truth lie undiscovered The point about sceptics is that I am frequently told that econ- before me.’ they continually test the theo- omists believe that per capita Gross Domestic Product is the ries they hold against the facts, Newton also said ‘If I have measure of welfare of a nation. and try to improve them. As seen further than others, it is by such, they are what Thomas That is a strange claim since Kuhn called revolutionaries, every economist knows that challenging and replacing the more relevant measure is the conventional wisdom. I Net National Income. GDP am going to address some includes depreciation and of these false gods directly. measures the income of a Perhaps you hold some dear. region, not of the people who Please understand I am just belong to the region. Some of applying the standards of the profits of the region go to scientific scepticism to them investors outside it. as you would expect to be Such things are overlooked applied elsewhere. by the critics, but even more Popper points out that extraordinarily, they only even though you know your rehash what economists have always known. I do mean theories will be replaced by The Sceptical Economist: Brian Easton ‘always’. The creator of better ones, hold on to the addresses the 2009 Skeptics Conference. best you have until a better the statistical base out of one comes along. I will give which GDP comes was Si- standing upon the shoulders of some examples where scientific mon Kuznets who wrote in his giants.’ Science is the accumu- economics has held – even still original report in 1934: “the wel- lation of wisdom. We would do holds – theories knowing their fare of a nation can scarcely be well to recall and understand the weaknesses, and where we may inferred from a measurement of giants of our science before we make progress in the not too national income”. But you won’t claim some particular insight. distant future – one hopes.

page  economics find him quoted in the standard GDP was originally derived for capita incomes in the rich world critiques of GDP, nor John Ken- tracking unemployment. Today quadrupled in the 180 years neth Galbraith who wrote an we know that it is not a very between Ricardo and Schum- elegant chapter decrying its use good short run indicator for this peter. You can set up auxiliary as a measure of welfare in his purpose, that economic activity hypotheses to explain the in- Affluent Society some 50 years and unemployment track dif- consistency but in the 1950s, ago. ferently. So even if the activity as the data became available, it contraction has ended we may became evident that a theory of I am not denying that some expect rising unemployment for economic growth dominated by people use GDP as the measure a while yet. pure capital accumulation was of welfare, or that GDP is an inconsistent with the facts. economists’ measure. My point is that properly trained I am likely to be deluged We now know, following economists use it for other in the next few weeks by a famous 1956 paper by Bob purposes – the purposes for sentiments of ‘hooray Solow, that what he called which it was designed. the recession is over and ‘technical change’ adds to eco- things are getting better’, nomic growth. By technical You might say, why in the change he meant “a shorthand followed up a little later by last 75 years have econo- expression for any kind of shift mists not constructed a better ‘you economists misled us, in the production function. measure of welfare? The short things have not improved Thus slowdowns, speedups, answer is that we have tried, that much’. improvements in the education and we have not been able to of the labour force, and all sorts develop a satisfactory one. of things will appear as ‘techni- Today there is another attempt My second illustration is that I cal change’.” by a committee led by Joseph am often told that economics de- pends upon unlimited economic The story of how the scientific Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, two community has misinterpreted other giants of the profession. growth. That cannot be true since many giants of the economics this economic research for its What I found interesting is that own political purposes belongs they have concluded there is profession – Thomas Malthus, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, John to another occasion. The point to no single measure of economic be made here is that it is simply welfare, and are looking for a Maynard Keynes and Joseph Schumpeter, for instance – were not true that economics says that number of indicators. Which economic growth is necessary. rather undermines all the crit- stagnationists who expected eco- nomic growth to come to an end; When there is no more techni- ics who have their own single cal change, the growth may stop measure which they claim is Keynes wrote of the ‘euthanasia of the rentier’. What he meant, but there will still be a role for better than GDP. There is no economics. unique single measure of a na- and others thought too, was that tion’s welfare. Had there been, as capital was accumulated, the Were the critics a little more economists would have devel- return on capital would fall, until subtle, they could instead argue oped it – around 74 years ago. there would be no incentive to in- that the current economic system One must never assume that the vest, and economic growth would is dependent upon economic best economists are as stupid as stop. This is a consequence of the growth. The technical mecha- their critics. laws of thermodynamics. As nism is that the true profit rate Paul Samuelson has pointed out, is close to the growth rate; so no A couple of caveats – I shall economics is grounded in those growth, no profits. When growth be referring to annual market laws – without them there would exhausts itself the nature of the activity, and when I make com- be no trade-offs, a fundamental economic system would change. parisons through time I shall be notion of economics. If you want to pursue the impli- referring to volume GDP, that cations of that you might read is production adjusted for the The difficulty with this stag- nationist approach was that per Malthus, Ricardo, Marx, Keynes change in prices. Incidentally, and Schumpeter. number 93 - spring 2009 economics

So there are two kinds of eco- what economists – and others believers conclude they worked nomics. One is what competent such as business people, journal- because their theory says so. As economists do, and the other is ists and politicians – think. If you it happens the economic growth articulated by the politicians, use a definition that economics rate for New Zealand did not journalists and business people is what economists do, then speed up under Rogernomics. who have misunderstood pro- deciding whether economics is Indeed per capita GDP stag- fessional economics, often for a science becomes a question of nated from 1985 to 1993, so it self-serving ends. This self-serv- whether economists are scien- was the same in 1995 as it been ing is the key reason why this tists, an empirical question. eight years earlier. It was in that misrepresentation dominates the period that we got badly behind public discourse. Why bother to Probably all the giants of Australia. get it right if ignorance supports economics were scientists in one’s ends? It is the scientist who the sense that they practised a I should like to tell you how pursues getting it right as an end scientific method which Pop- Rogernomes explain this stagna- in itself. per would recognise. When we tion since they said their theory look at shorter members of the promised economic growth. I’d I was taken by a history of profession – even those who really like to know, since I have Lysenko whose pseudo-science, were followers of the giants – we a theory which explains why the which confused phenotype with observe another way of pursuing stagnation happened and I would genotype, was imposed for po- economics. like to test it against alterna- litical ends to the detriment of tive theories. Unfortunately the Soviet Agriculture. What struck A distinction Rogernomes simply ignore the me was that a large proportion To make the division clear, I fact of stagnation. I know of no – perhaps 95 percent – of the So- shall contrast sceptics with the case of any of them mentioning viet biological profession simply believers. Sceptics are the scien- it, let alone giving any account accepted the faulty paradigm. tists who are continually testing of why it happened contrary to Of the remainder, about half got the hypotheses they hold against their theory and promises. on with doing proper science alternative hypotheses. For them You will detect here the frus- and the other half ended up in knowledge is tentative but it Siberian concentration camps tration of a scientist. I get better also progresses as it replaces theories by comparing mine with – or worse. But that so many existing hypotheses with better Soviet biologists got it desper- others using the facts that test ones – typically as a result of an them. But how can I do that if ately wrong does not prove that encounter with facts. biology is not a science. they ignore the facts? On the other side are the be- There is also a policy issue I’d like to think there would lievers, who hold a known truth be a higher proportion of the here. It is hard not to conclude which is invulnerable to chal- that Rogernomics and its Rutha- economics profession who could lenge. Facts do not challenge see the fallacies in an imposed nasia successor failed. There is their truths, or cause them to be currently a committee to con- economics paradigm, and cer- replaced with better ones. Rather tainly fewer of us end up in sider how we might speed up the task is to explain the facts economic growth and catch up concentration camps. One day within the framework of belief; there will be a very interesting with Australia in GDP per capita if necessary they will ignore terms. At least three of its five analysis of how so many econo- inconvenient facts. mists were misled into thinking members were Rogernomes. It the macroeconomics which has Consider the belief in the poli- will be interesting to see to what led to the current crisis had so cies which we call Rogernom- extent they address the failure of much validity. But not all did, ics, and which are more widely the policies they advocated in the and economics can claim that it known as ‘neo-conservative 1980s and 1990s. is being corrected by the facts. economics’. They were applied Another group you need to be in New Zealand between 1985 wary of is those who are paid by Notice that I am distinguishing and 1993, and the Rogernomics between what economics is and their employers to represent their

page  economics business interest. While they do a What gave the journalists of the last two years were revised good job, sometimes they reflect the authority to claim that the with the new announcement. The the firm’s or sector’s interests. recession was officially over? average growth rate in the last There is no official definition decade’s boom was about 0.9 More fundamentally, as Gal- of a recession in New Zealand; percent a quarter. So the June braith pointed out, we are the there is not even a standard one. quarter outcome was not only slaves of the conventional wis- The journalists probably did not that output per head was falling, dom which is a mix of what have the foggiest idea of what but since economic capacity is Keynes called the thinkings of economists mean by a ‘reces- continuing to grow so that the ‘defunct economists’, our as- sion’, other than they knew it underutilised capacity was in- pirations which are not always was a bad thing. creasing in the quarter. Bad news based on reality, and the theories for the unemployed and putative which support the hegemony of The number which led to these unemployed. the dominant interest groups of pronouncements was a minus- a society. cule plus 0.1 percent of GDP, We sceptics cannot be sure, but but equally it could have been don’t be surprised if the hoopla Recession over? presented as minus 0.2 percent of seems silly in a year’s time. As While I was meditating on such GDP per capita. Moreover, there the Minister of Finance said: things, journalists announced the is a margin of error for any figure “Tough times are still ahead”. ‘recession was officially over’ the Government Statistician re- Probably. My assessment is that because GDP increased 0.1 per- ports, and the quarter by quarter there are very tough times still cent between the March 09 and GDP change is subject to a large ahead of us. the June 09 quarter. one. They are also subject to re- vision – five of the eight quarters My irritation arises, not only because of the poor quality of so much of the commentary, but because it sets the tone for the public. I am likely to be deluged in the next few weeks by senti- ments of ‘hooray the recession is over and things are getting better’, followed up a little later by ‘you economists misled us, things have not improved that much’. So we face confusing stories. Much of economics may be scientific but many economists are not, and in any case most of the public learn their economics from those who could not pos- sibly be considered professional economists. As one last attempt to con- vince you that economics is a science – and like all sciences complex and subtle – let me look at three areas where economics is progressing. Note how in each case the evolution is due to a dia- logue between theory and fact, number 93 - spring 2009 economics and how like all scientists I make behavioural economics justifies Even so, while rising average no apology if the current theory the state over-ruling individual incomes do not increase happi- is to be replaced by a better one, preferences (it doesn’t). So, ness over time, those with higher albeit one which stands on the Lysenko-like, their politics over- incomes at any point in time are shoulder of the old one. rules science. Meanwhile you happier than those with lower will find increasing application incomes. But not that much Economic Behaviour of the theory; the Kiwi saver happier. Some work Ryan You First there is the theory of scheme was influenced by Thale- and I have done shows that the individual economic behaviour. rian principles, although hardly happiness score goes up from 8.1 For a long time economists have anyone mentioned it. to 8.3 when annual income rises held, in an increasingly rigorous from $20,000 to $120,000 – by Happiness and Material 0.2 points on a 0 to 10 scale. In form, the notion of rational eco- Consumption nomic man – Homo economicus. contrast happiness falls by 0.5 He – he is always male – takes all My second example illus- points if an employed person that is known into consideration trates that economics, like other becomes unemployed, which and pursues his own self-interest sciences, can have an anomaly suggests that a job is far more by maximising his utility which which has yet to be resolved. important for happiness than the reflects only his welfare and does Two hundred years ago, Jeremy income it generates. Even more not vary through time. A little Bentham said the more you dramatically, the happiness of a introspection suggests that we consumed the happier you were. married woman who becomes don’t actually do this; the theory That has been a central assump- separated falls 0.6 points on av- held on for the simple scientific tion in economics ever since. But erage and the man who moves reason that there was not a better is it true? from married to separated falls one to replace it. When we use 1.2 points. We have only had the data it for policy purposes, many of So income is not as important us make ad hoc adjustments to to test the proposition in recent years. The most important in- in determining happiness as a bring H. economicus closer to range of other – not economic actual behaviour. volves asking whether people are happy and comparing their – things. Insofar as income is Recently some economists responses with their incomes, important, it seems to be because have been looking at the psy- after controlling for other vari- it demonstrates one is higher up chological literature to obtain ables. There is some research the pecking order, rather than insights into human behaviour. which indicates that the subjec- the additional material consump- Among my heroes are Richard tive responses are consistent with tion it generates. What this all Thaler, Matthew Rabin and Dan- objective data, but of course the means is unclear. It’s an anomaly. iel Kahneman, the psychologist area is treacherous. Probably the best source if you who received the Nobel prize in are interested in the subject is economics in 2002. When we pull together the Richard Layard’s book Happi- available evidence we find that ness, although I don’t agree with While economics does not a rise in average material con- everything he says. yet have a rigorous theory, it is sumption in poorer societies certainly making progress. Eco- seems to be associated with The Global Financial Crisis nomics evolves. I admit there is rising average happiness. How- There is a major row going a lot of resistance to behavioural ever that does not seem to apply on in economics which has been economics. It includes those to affluent societies. The best precipitated by the Global Finan- who are comfortable with the example from the longest data cial Crisis. The disagreement has old paradigm and don’t want series is that levels of consump- long been there but new facts and to learn anything new. (Keynes tion have doubled in the United new events have exposed it. remarked we rarely learn any- States over the last 60 years, but thing fundamental after the age there has been no rise in average Following the Great Depres- of 30.) It also includes those with happiness there. sion of the 1930s, Keynes wrote a political agenda who think that

page  economics his General Theory of Employ- about American Keynesianism be the incorporation of balance ment, Interest and Money, which which is too influenced by the sheets into Keynesianism. Key- became the basis for what we peculiarities of the US govern- nes knew about them, but there know as the Keynesian paradigm ment arrangements. Moreover I was not enough material to in- of how the macro-economy don’t think the Americans have corporate them into his account works. By the 1960s it was thought enough about the partic- – except crudely. challenged by monetarism (the ularities of their economy, whose expression was not invented until currency is also the international However there is a bigger 1968) which evolved to a point means of exchange. lesson here. Paradigmatic bat- where it is said the founders such tles are not resolved as easily in as Milton Friedman would the social sciences as they no longer recognise it. This are in the natural sciences alternative paradigm (there – although none of them is quite a lot of the Keyne- has lasted as long as the one sian apparatus in monetar- about the nature of light. It ism) became dominant for is worth recalling Planck’s policy purposes at the US law: Federal Reserve and in the “A new scientific truth does not popular press and business triumph by convincing its op- community, but not in the ponents and making them see academy which divided the light, but rather because its between – in the jargon opponents eventually die, and a – ‘saltwater economists’ new generation grows up that is who were Keynesians (gen- familiar with it.” erally) working in Ameri- That may be true in phys- can universities on the east ics. It is even more so in the and west coasts and ‘fresh John Maynard Keynes: “We rarely learn social sciences. water’ ones who were anti- anything fundamental after the age of 30.” Keynesians usually working Conclusion in inland American universities. You may be surprised that I should be a Keynesian given There is a strongly scientific In the academy this was all that Keynes published his book element in much of economics good competitive fun, with lash- almost three-quarters of a cen- and many economists are scien- ings of rhetoric – and some per- tury ago, about the same time tists. Regrettably, many of those sonal abuse. In the policy domain as Bohr’s complementarity, who use economics do not do so there was an uneasy truce. The Heisenberg’s uncertainty, and in a scientific way, which is why arrival of the Global Financial Pauli’s exclusion principles and it is right to be sceptical about Crisis has now turned the truce Schrodinger’s equation. They what you are told are economic into open public war. Think of all remain in the foundations truths. But that does not mean the disagreement over whether of quantum mechanics but the that none exist. light was a wave or a particle subject has evolved. So has eco- – but shift it to the twenty-first nomics. century with its greater and Brian Easton is an independent instantaneous public communi- So let me finish with the cryp- scholar especially interested in New Zealand. His writings and research cation and of a more immediate tic remark that I reckon that progress will not just happen are primarily concerned with its policy concern. economics, history, politics, sociol- with the Global Financial Crisis ogy and culture. I’ve tried to put the argument testing the two paradigms. There fairly, but I don’t want to seem will have to be a new theoreti- to be sitting on the fence. Briefly cal innovation based upon some my position is I am with the Key- previously unavailable empiri- nesians, although I have doubts cal data. I speculate that it will number 93 - spring 2009 medium An Evening with Sue Nicholson

Noel Townsley

Yet another Sensing Murder veteran struts her .

S a professed skeptic I so we could better observe the needn’t worry, she was not going Ahave been unconvinced by night’s proceedings. However, to ask members of the audience who claim they can as almost every seat downstairs to come up on stage. She had communicate with dead people. was taken, we made our way to been fortunate in the past to have However, those who do believe the upper level. By the time the a spirit usherette turn up to help such a connection is possible show began, there were only keep the more unruly in line she invariably point out that as I have four empty seats in the whole told us. never been to a session, theatre. Next up was a short prayer I am not in a position to criticise. Shortly after 7.30pm Sue Ni- to help us on our journey. We To counter that, I decided to cholson was introduced by her were asked to meditate, and attend an evening with the well- business agent, and entered the Sue would transport us, and our known psychic Sue Nicholson, stage wearing a brightly coloured angels, through a doorway with who was appearing at the Glen flowing outfit. our name on it (or our birth name Eden Playhouse Theatre. The if we were adopted), which we price for that experience was $50 She quickly told us she could were told we would see ahead of per ticket. feel plenty of energy, and that us, and once we had gone through there was “spirit” waiting to On her website Sue describes to the other side, we would see get through already. In fact, so herself as a “gifted psychic me- the most beautiful garden we had much spirit about and so little dium”, an ability she claims to ever seen. From there she told time, that she would not be able have had from early childhood. us to move on to the beautiful to address everyone’s needs. One-day psychic development beach and park bench with our Sue explained she is gifted with workshops were available from name on it that we would see in the ability to see, hear, and feel Sue, coinciding with her current the distance. There we would spirit, unlike many who may nationwide tour, $235 each, but spend time with our angels and have only one of those gifts. She that did include lunch. A maxi- deceased relatives. Some of us then told us about some of her mum of 30 persons per session. If may be given something to take earlier shows; someone’s pet pig you want a personal reading from back, she advised. turned up from the other side one her, there is a three-year waiting night – animals also make it to After a few minutes chatting list. There are three different CDs the other side she said. Is it just with all of them, she told us to go at $30 each, and her book A Call people’s pets that made it there, over to a waterfall to our right, From The Other Side is available or is it every animal that once the most beautiful waterfall we at $35. She can also be booked lived? She further advised there had ever seen, and to step into for house blessings, and claims was no Hell, and everyone, good it, so that the waters would go “she successfully cleared nega- or bad, was in the same place on through our bodies and relieve tive energy from a large corpora- the other side. A disappointment, us of any aches and pains we tion in Wellington following the no doubt, to those who hope that had. Miraculously, we would suicide of an employee on the the likes of Hitler and Pol Pot are notice our clothes were dry as premises”. on slow roast somewhere. we stepped out. Sadly, Sue said, The Evening we now had to make our way She then explained that the back through the doorway. She My companion and I thought it five empty seats placed on the best to take a seat near the back stage were for spirit, so we To Page 12

page  newsfront Compiled by David Riddell Flaky diagnostic tool fans toxin scare fire Viktor Yushchenko had his soup laced with dioxin he was badly ARD on the heels of the of Conservation dropped 147 scarred, but today his face has HBent Spoon awarded to the tonnes of brodifacoum bait on largely healed and he appears Poisoning Paradise ‘documen- Rangitoto and Motutapu Islands in good health. Following the tary’ (see p. 16), the NZ Herald in August. Soon after, several Seveso chemical factory ex- has produced an appalling piece marine animals were found dead plosion in 1976 residents were on alleged pesticide poisoning of on ’s North Shore, and found to have up to 10,000 times people and wildlife in Auckland dogs which had walked on the the typical human tissue concen- (27 September). beaches became ill or died. At tration. Fifteen years of testing least some of these cases were revealed no excess cancer, still- According to the report, later linked to tetrodotoxin, a births or genetic disorders – just Waiheke Island environmental bacterial toxin found in several the temporary acne. group Ocean Aware claimed marine organisms, most famous- samples from marine birds, oys- ly the Japanese fugu puffer fish. Sadly, says Brockie, this is an ters and dog vomit, taken from argument that science and objec- Waiheke and Rangitoto Islands, DoC, in alliance with Auck- tivity can never win. tested positive for brodifacoum land Regional Public Health, and 1080. MAF Biosecurity, Auckland Re- “The testimony of one or two gional Council and North Shore residents carries more weight in The samples were tested by and Auckland City Councils, New Plymouth than truckloads EAV machine, though nothing says independent scientists have of refuting world statistics.” in the article explained what carried out extensive testings and this means. EAV stands for determined none of the deaths ‘Electroacupuncture according were caused by brodifacoum. Conspiracy? What to Voll’ – in the 1950s Reinhold conspiracy? Voll combined acupuncture DoC spokeswoman Nicola theory with galvanic skin dif- Vallance said the department The Sunday Star Times (20 ferentials to produce a machine offered to have independent sci- September) had a good piece which, when homeopathic solu- entists test Silverstar’s samples, on Matthew Dentith’s study of tions were introduced into the but she declined. conspiracy theories at Auckland circuit, could be used to ‘diag- University. Why, asked reporter nose’ all manner of toxin-related Mark Broatch, do otherwise ailments (see NZ Skeptic 56). Dioxin risk over-rated ruthlessly rational people reject Needless to say the machine has out of hand most conspiracies, no scientific basis. At least Bob Brockie brought yet give time and angst to ideas some sense to the fraught subject others find quite wacky? A woman who became mildly of environmental toxins with ill after eating local snapper also his Dominion Post column (6 Matthew Dentith says the tested positive for brodifacoum, July) on the dioxin scare in New problem is two-fold. Schools said Ocean Aware’s Sarah Sil- Plymouth. don’t teach critical thinking verstar. Brodifacoum poisoning, skills that might help us unravel however, causes internal bleed- Residents there were up in our confusion, and we humans ing, which the woman was not arms when it was discovered are exceptional at compartmen- reported to suffer from, and does soils in a local park had minute talising our beliefs. not otherwise generate feelings traces of dioxin. But as Bob Brockie pointed out, dioxin at “It’s really easy to be abso- of illness. This is what makes it lutely staunch in, say, your ad- such an effective rat poison. far higher levels than found in Taranaki generates no symptoms herence to evolutionary theory The electroacupuncture testing other than a form of acne. When by natural selection. But when it was done after the Department Ukrainian presidential candidate comes to medical quackery...” number 93 - spring 2009 newsfront

Look for more on this subject Pharmac medical director Ghost hunters hit the capital from Matthew Dentith in an up- Peter Moodie said data showed Those who were at the confer- coming issue of NZ Skeptic. doctors were prescribing anti- ence this year will already know biotics responsibly. He agreed about James Gilberd and his it was not acceptable to waste Paranormal Occurrences team. money prescribing medicines Placebo prescriptions They got a write-up in the Capi- with no effect. widespread tal Times recently (26 August Three out of four New Zealand - 1 September). Reporter Dawn doctors have prescribed placebo Tratt joined them for a ghost hunt Alternative therapies ‘too at the Museum of Wellington medications to patients, accord- good to be true’ ing to medical researcher Shaun City and Sea. Holt, who says the practice could The Sunday News (20 Sep- Claiming to be sceptical, cost the taxpayer several million tember) has come up with a sur- though carrying baggage from a dollars (Dominion Post 4 July). prisingly sceptical article about Pentecostal upbringing, Tratt’s alternative health treatments. Seventy-two percent of the scariest moment came when her Belief, says Barbara Docherty, a colleague mistook one of the 157 doctors surveyed admitted registered nurse and clinical lec- giving placebos, including vita- investigators, sitting on the floor, turer at the Auckland University for a ghost. mins, herbal supplements, salt School of Nursing, is becoming a water injections and sugar pills. most important factor in a world It was only after she left that “But what surprised us was where ‘alternative health’ has be- things supposedly got really the most commonly prescribed come a major growth industry. spooky. One of the team says she saw the spirit of a Maori man. placebos were antibiotics, which After noting the most popular is obviously a concern because alternative therapies include “I felt like he was upset with of the rise of antibiotic resist- naturopathy, , ho- James. He kept trying to tell me ance and potential side-effects meopathy herbal remedies and something but I couldn’t pick up for patients,” Dr Holt said. acupuncture, she asks if this is what it was.” the stuff of quacks and witch Patients’ unjustified demands It may, just possibly, be sig- doctors. for medication was cited as the nificant that the museum ran most common reason for pre- “Despite a wealth of available paranormal tours during one of scribing placebos (34 percent), information, there is little or no the winter public programmes followed by non-specific com- strong scientific evidence and three years ago, and marketing plaints (25 percent), and exhaust- very little regulation about who manager Angela Varelas says ing other treatment options (24 and what is safe. Herbal and nat- they are looking to bring them percent). ural medicines, although widely back early next year. used, are not subject to the same Dr Holt said he believed pla- As for James Gilberd, he scrutiny as prescription or over- cebos were ethical as long as the brings a distinctly sceptical the-counter medications.” doctor considered them to be in approach to his ghost-hunting, the best interests of the patient. Skeptics might question the treating it as a form of perform- “The placebo effect is quite pow- value of her advice to check out ance art. In his day job he runs erful,” he said. practitioners’ qualifications care- a photographic gallery, Phot- Rather than prescribing medi- fully – an ineffective treatment is ospace, and his conference pres- cations which were ineffective ineffective no matter who is ad- entation was mainly about the for the condition treated – such ministering it – but not her final technical glitches that cameras, as antibiotics for viral infections comment: “...bear in mind that and particular digital cameras, – he said “there could be an ar- anything that sounds too good can have that lead people to think gument for bringing back sugar to be true probably is.” they’ve photographed a ghost. pills, which are safer, just as ef- Something else to look out for in fective and certainly cheaper.” an upcoming NZ Skeptic.

page 11 medium

From Page 9 At one point while Sue was to move on with her life, and conveying a message to one was happy for her to find a new apologised for the brevity of the woman, she seemed to sense partner, if she so desired. visit, but knew people were anx- another spirit coming through ious for her to begin contact with and asked the woman who Mar- Next she asked us about the spirit. We could spend longer on garet or Maggie was. The woman gifts we had received during our the other side – 25 minutes in fact replied “Margaret is my sister” earlier journey to the other side, – by using her CD (available in and pointed to the woman sitting and offered to interpret these for the foyer during the break). next to her. After a brief chat with us. One person reported receiv- the spirit, it seemed there was a ing a gold ring; Sue said she Spirits aren’t maimed, they message for Margaret. Sue ad- could see it above them, that it only look that way was a symbol of everlasting love. She could also see a By now the spirits were jos- A vague description such number above them, 5, a lucky tling to get through, so Sue’s number, Sue said. Someone first guest was a Tommy, or as “chest pains” could be got a locket, another, the word maybe Thomas – seems he interpreted as anything love, another a gold heart and wasn’t sure of his own name from heart disease to lung the word love. – who had crutches. Sue ex- cancer, leaving the field plained that people presented wide open for a connection. It was time for a break, and themselves as they were on Sue mentioned there was a this side – that is maimed, new series of Sensing Murder unwell etc, but that was just to be screened later in the year. so we could identify them. There vised Margaret her angels were There was an audible “Oooh” were no immediate takers for looking out for her, and she could from many in the audience. Tommy, but one woman did expect things to improve in com- finally put her hand up, she said ing months, good news. After a chance to view the she had a grandfather, Thomas, merchandise, Sue was back on Sue explained that our guard- but he didn’t use crutches. This stage with a pen and paper and ian angels, whilst they look out anomaly did not deter Sue, who a list of spirits who had come for us, don’t actively interfere informed the woman, granddad to her during the break, which with our lives in any way. What Thomas had been waiting a long she proceeded to work her way their purpose is exactly, I am still time to come through and so through. First up was someone not sure. was a bit grumpy having had to in a navy uniform: no immediate push past the other spirits to be Sue saw a car roll over many takers, but someone did have a first, but he did love her, and was times with four people in it. cousin in the navy – that must watching over her. As there was no response, she be it, because they got a message clarified – not all may have from them. Following this Sue gave us died, but at least one person in some general descriptions of oth- Sue then described someone the car did pass over. A hand er spirits trying to get through, no with cuts to their wrists. One went up. “Who died?” Sue asks. names this time, just a woman or woman raised her hand, she had “A friend,” was the reply. “Ah, man with chest pains, breathing a son who overdosed and died. a friend,” Sue said, “Yes, that’s problems, or other vague symp- “Did he have cuts?” Sue asked. what they are saying to me, a toms. Once someone recognised “No,” was the reply. No one else friend, a friend, yes, yes, do you the description and put their hand put their hand up, so Sue talked understand that?” Apparently up, Sue would tell them what the to the spirit again. It seemed he they did. The friend was later spirit had to say. One spirit iden- had wanted to cut himself, but revealed by the woman to have tified by an audience participant didn’t do it – it was her son after actually been her partner. The was a cousin, and another appar- all. He said he felt alienated and spirit then had a message for ently the deceased friend of the that no one understood him. “Do her, he said he loved her, but he participant’s living daughter. you understand that?” Sue asked, understood it was time for her apparently she did. number 93 - spring 2009 medium

Two people claimed one spirit, she announced it was for the a reference to Sue’s 30-minute but it was the person to the right woman with glasses and looked meditation CD. that Sue directed her information directly towards my companion. to. However it didn’t seem to be Fortunately, a few seats away Upon reaching the foyer we going too well. The person to the there was another woman, also were nearly run down when a left vigorously waved their hand, with glasses, who was certain group of people clutching books it seems the information was for this spirit was for her. Sue’s saw Sue and followed her into them instead, Sue apologised to agent, who’s job it was to take the adjoining room for them to the first person and moved to the the microphone around, pointed be signed. second. An easy mistake for the out that this woman had already Putting it all together spirit to make I guess. had a turn, but with my compan- ion now trying to hide under the In summary, I noticed that A ghostly budgie seat, Sue was sure it was for this when Sue got it wrong, she Others followed, and then it woman. “Are you trying to do moved on quickly, that informa- was back to more interpretations a family tree?” Sue asked this tion she elicited from the person of our meditative gifts received woman. “Yes, but I am having often became the information on the other side. More hearts, difficulty,” was the reply. Sue that the spirit then supplied back, love, flowers. Occasionally advised the spirit was telling her often followed by the question Sue saw something additional it was because there are several “Do you understand that?”. Typi- – she saw a bird arrive over one skeletons in the closet, and she cally, a name or a general descrip- woman; it turned out she had a should look further afield. “But tion of an illness would change pet budgie as a child, so it must they all come from Ireland,” the into something else when there have been that the woman said. woman replied. No matter, you was no apparent connection to a Another woman said her guard- need to look in England Sue ad- member of the audience. A vague ian angel had turned to stone on vised. I hope it helped. description such as “chest pains” the other side. No need to worry, could be interpreted as anything Last on the list was another from heart disease to lung cancer, stone is solid and unmoving, Sue name that had come through advised – it was just the angel leaving the field wide open for a – there were only three names connection. If someone identi- showing her the solidity of their put forward by spirit during the commitment to her. fied a condition as relating to night. “Could be a first, or a last that of their dearly departed, Sue Another spirit was identified name, Preston.” I thought, this still asked them what they had by a gentleman in the second row could be interesting, that’s not died of. Once the spirit had been as a departed relative. Sue con- a common name. No takers. Si- identified by someone from this veyed a few messages and then lence. Then a woman in the third vague description, nothing else remarked, “You’re thinking of row puts her hand up. “My sur- was actually revealed to further going into business on your own, name is Prescott,” she said. “No, confirm the correctness of this aren’t you?” “No, done that, and Preston it is,” Sue repeats. More identification. never again!” was the man’s im- silence. Sue then conversed with mediate reply. Sue conversed for the spirit. “Preston? Preston? no, In one instance the spirit, con- a moment with the spirit, yes, no, it is Prescott, yes Prescott it firmed by a woman in the audi- seems they were warning him is,” Sue announced, and then ence to be that of her deceased not to go into business on his proceeded to convey a message mother, was identified from own. “Do you understand that?” to the Prescott in the audience. Sue’s description of someone Sue asked. I am sure he did. with a problem in the throat area. The show was then concluded The woman revealed her mother Then it was back to Sue’s list. by Sue’s agent. It was 10.30pm. had died from a brain tumor, but, Another name this time, and jok- We made our way back to the she clarified, her mother did have ingly I leant over to my compan- foyer, and as we did I overheard difficulty swallowing in the latter ion and asked, is that your father? one person remark, “That’s a part of her illness. Sue told the (still very much alive). Sue must dollar a minute”, presumably woman her mother had 18 vari- have noticed my movement as ously sized brain tumors. There

page 13 medium was no way to verify this, and interpretation of gifts from the to get to everyone, that many interestingly the woman did not spirit world were generally the would be back another time. confirm it, but one has to wonder, same – your friend/relative/part- why was the spirit not at first able ner says they love you/forgive At least I can point out the to give Sue the basic information you/never got around to telling inconsistencies and errors that I of a brain tumor, but later, after you they love you, but they do, observed to believers now that I she was given this information, and it is okay to move on with had answered their criticism and was then able to give a precise your life now. There were no attended a session. number to the tumors? specific revelations from any of Hopefully this may be suffi- them, just general ‘feel good’ When anyone told Sue what cient to persuade some believers comments. Commendably, she to think more critically about gift they received during their put in a word of caution for any- journey to the other side, she their experience in the future. I one contemplating suicide – you certainly hope so. was always able see it above should not hasten death, but wait them – she never told them what until your time comes. Noel Townsley is a credit controller it was prior to her being told by living in Auckland. He contracted the participant. Interestingly the Was I convinced? Not at all, a severe bout of scepticism in the late 1970s after watching a Uri messages Sue conveyed and the but I could see that most attend- Geller broadcast on television. ing were, and with Sue not able report A year of growth and fresh initiatives

Vicki Hyde presents the chair-entity’s report for 2009.

HE past year since our last which come up time and time It’s been pleasing to see mem- Tconference has proved a again. There will be a further berships rise after remaining busy one for the organisation drive to spread that prior to the relatively static for a number with a number of initiatives start of the summer silly season. of years. We now have around both within the society and by Contacts with journalists have 500 members, up from 436 at associates. continued throughout the year, the beginning of the year. The covering a range of fields though Skeptics Alert list has around Al Dennard took over as concentrating on mediums as a 1,000 people on it. Treasurer last year and we ap- result of many tours by psychic preciate his taking up the role. performers. Our Secretary, Paul Ash- We’re always keen to hear from ton, has been keeping track of members suggestions of ways to We’re looking to support a memberships and introducing use our funds. number of possible tours in the a number of helpful improve- next year. Richard Saunders of ments in membership handling One major activity was the the is look- and communications. If you’ve secondary schools mailout of ing to bring his Mystery Investi- used the Paypal-based credit card the Oddzone book. We received gators show across the Tasman. payment system, do please give many heartening letters and PZ Myers, of the Pharyngula Paul a pat on the back for the emails from school librarians science blog is willing to visit convenience. pleased to have some alternative New Zealand after attending the information available to their World Atheists’ Convention in We have had a boost as a pupils. Melbourne next March. Nathan result of the excellent work by Grange has been in touch to see Gold in establishing the informal We have also been providing Skeptics in the Pub network, now copies to interested journalists how we can work in with ’s next trip to these parts, operating in Christchurch, Wel- to help give them some back- lington and Auckland. This is not ground on the paranormal stories depending on how James’ health pans out. a formal activity by the society number 93 - spring 2009 report itself, but is worthy of support as I also spoke with Brad Scott Our thanks go to Dave, a means of greater community of NZ Paranormal Investigators, Michelle and the other Welling- outreach and promotion of criti- in a lengthy podcast that brought ton members who have pitched cal thinking and skeptical ideas. our message of open-minded- in to produce another excellent We look forward to seeing it ness, enthusiasm and humour in conference. grow, and helping it do so. a critical thinking context to an entirely new audience. Undercover for cancer

Loretta Marron exposes an Australian Australian alternative cancer therapist.

N 26 February this year, As part of her orthodox cancer Four days later, she was in the Otrailers were run every hour treatment she had a port-a-cath emergency ward at Toowoomba throughout the day in Australia surgically implanted for chemo- Hospital with blood clots. Horri- advertising the Channel Nine therapy, but despite every effort fied by what the doctors told her current affair programme ACA. from her oncologist the cancer and by the accelerated deteriora- It was featuring a story about a continues to spread. tion of Maria’s health, her sister “Queensland Medical Monster” contacted ACA. – a naturopath in Mackay who Hearing that intravenous injec- was claiming to cure cancer. tions of Miracle Mineral Supple- After being briefed by ACA ments (MMS) cured cancer, she reporter Chris Allen, I phoned the naturopath, Jill Newlands. I told her I had been diagnosed with breast cancer and that I had heard about the treatment. We talked for an hour about cancer, cures and conspiracies. After my own 2003 diagnosis with cancer, I received advice to talk to other patients who had been through the experience which had helped me at that time, so just before I hung up the phone I asked Jill if there were any patients I could talk to. The Jelly Bean Lady: Loretta Marron’s first brush with the TV She told me about Marilyn – I cameras came when she used jelly beans to get across the idea of the knew that if I could include this placebo effect. patient that this would show the full story. Marilyn is a retired As a member of the Austral- paid the $2000 for the two-week nurse, her breast cancer has ian Skeptics, a scientist and a treatment. spread and like Maria she is dy- breast cancer survivor, I had Maria soon found herself ing. Like Maria, Marilyn also been recommended to ACA to had a port-a-cath implanted for be part of this story. hooked up to an IV bag attached to a wire coat hanger that was chemotherapy. Like Maria she Every story requires a vic- hanging from a rusty nail under believed this treatment would tim and that was Maria Worth. a house in Mackay. save her life. She is dying of breast cancer.

page 15 alternative medicine

I phoned Jill again and asked Pharmacies should be places placebo at best and couldn’t care to see her the next day. She where we can get evidence-based less, distresses me even more. confirmed that Marilyn would medicine, so as a cancer patient, Loretta Marron is a science gradu- be there and she agreed to the seeing ear candles and homeo- ate with a business background, appointment. Accompanied by pathic remedies on prescription was Australian Skeptic of the Year a member of the ACA team who counters on one side of my phar- for 2007, and described her experi- had a hidden camera, I was soon macy and a naturopath selling ences at the 2009 NZ Skeptics con- heading for Jill’s door. unproven cures and remedies on ference. She edits the website www. healthinformation.com.au the other side upsets me. Know- Arriving early we were there to ing that the pharmacy owners Loretta’s undercover operation for ACA can be viewed on YouTube, in greet Marilyn when she arrived know most of it is an expensive at the Newlands Clinic and as the a clip titled Loretta Marron busts a Cancer Quack. morning went on we were able to bent spoon film the entire procedure. I was sickened by what I wit- Scare Stories Endanger the nessed. Environment The next week the trailers for the show appeared throughout Vicki Hyde hands out this year’s Bent Spoon and Bravo Awards. the day on Channel Nine and the show aired that evening. DOCUMENTARY which as “an indiscriminate untargeted It went well. Thanks to ACA, Ahighlights the “distress, killer”. Emotions run high in Jill Newlands has been exposed cruelty, horror, ecocide, cover- the debate, with one anti-1080 and has now been shut down. ups and contamination” involved campaigner going so far as to This has clearly been going on in 1080-based pest control has hijack a helicopter at gunpoint for some time, because after the won the Bent Spoon from the NZ and last month threatening to show aired, two more patients Skeptics for 2009. die on Mount Tongariro unless the documentary received prime- came forward to ACA. Poisoning Paradise - Ecocide time billing. As for myself, I was soon at in New Zealand claims that 1080 my GP’s doorstep being treated kills large numbers of native Members of the NZ Skeptics for shingles on both arms. birds, poisons soils, persists in are involved in various conserva- water and interferes with hu- tion efforts across the country. Would I do it again? Of course man hormones. Hunters-cum- They have seen first-hand the I would. documentary makers Clyde and effectiveness of 1080 drops Steve Graf believe that 1080 has Naturopaths believe in Tradi- and the brutal ineffectiveness “stuffed the venison business”, tional Medicine and will tell you of attempts to control pests by and have been travelling the that it has worked for hundreds trapping and hunting, even in the country showing their film since of years, which is all the proof smaller fenced arks, let alone in March. they need. more rugged, isolated areas like Hawdon Valley or Kahurangi The NZ Skeptics, along with Naturopaths believe the body National Park. other groups, are concerned that has the ability to heal itself but wide media coverage and nation- their advice continues to delay People say that 1080 is cruel wide screenings of Poisoning treatment for some desperate – so is a possum when it rips the Paradise will lead to a political MS, Cancer and Parkinsons pa- heads off kokako chicks. Envi- push, rather than a scientifically tients. Naturopaths believe in ronmental issues aren´t simple; based one, to drop 1080 as a form healing energy including ear can- we are forever walking a difficult of pest control, with nothing ef- dling, and iridology balancing act. At this stage, 1080 fective to replace it. United Fu- and, positioned in pharmacies, is the best option for helping our ture leader Peter Dunne appeared they have ready access to major threatened species hang on or, in the film, and described 1080 illness patients. even better, thrive. It would be number 93 - spring 2009 bent spoon devastating for our wildlife were owed more to The Exorcist than heart attacks, cancer and miscar- we to abandon this. to tikanga Maori. riages. Paul Henry described the Australian promoter as a shyster I have a particular interest in Exorcism rituals, regardless using scare tactics targeting vul- this area, having served for eight of where they come from, have nerable people. years on the Possum Biocontrol been shown to harm people, Bioethics Committee, alongside psychologically and physically. • Rob Harley and Anna representatives from Forest & There are over 1,000 cases of McKessar for their documen- Bird, the SPCA and Ngai Tahu. murder, death and injury re- tary The Worst That Could Hap- Over the past 20 years I have corded on the whatstheharm.net pen (Real Crime, TV1, 29 July seen 1080 use become more website as a result of exorcisms 2009). They took a hard look at effective with the advent of bet- reported in the Western world the increasing tendency for ac- ter knowledge and application over the past 15 years. There are cusations of accessing computer methods, though I acknowledge thousands more, for the most part porn to be made on unfounded there is always room for im- unregarded, in places like Africa, grounds, and how it can have provement. or Papua New Guinea. These are devastating consequences for all needless victims, often injured people. We would dearly love a quick, by people who care for them and cheap, humane, highly targeted who tragically just didn´t stop to • Colin Peacock and Jer- means of getting rid of possums think about the nature of what emy Rose of Mediawatch on and other pests but until that day they were doing. Radio New Zealand National. comes, we cannot ignore the Every week Colin and Jeremy clear and present danger to our • Closeup for Hannah cast a critical eye on New Zea- native wildlife. To do so would Ockelford´s piece Filtering the land media. That´s something we be environmentally irresponsible Truth (11 September 2009), re- all should be doing in demanding in the extreme. garding the dodgy sales tactics that we get thoughtful, informed by an Australian organisation news and analysis from our People should be cautious which claims that New Zealand’s media. about taking documentaries at tap water can cause strokes, face value. A 2007 TV3 docu- forum mentary, Let Us Spray, has just been cited as unbalanced, inac- Non-custodial sentence curate and unfair by the Broad- inappropriate casting Standards Authority. In delivering a non-custo- Exorcisms, of course, are not We tend to assume that docu- dial sentence in the Janet Moses confined to Maori culture. mentaries are balanced and tell makutu case, Justice Simon us the whole story, but the in- France noted that expert wit- Surely the time is long over- creased use of advocacy journal- nesses considered the perpetra- due for totally discarding all ism doesn´t mean this is always tors were not acting out any such outmoded notions of a pre- the case. After all, remember that customary cultural or religious scientific age, and in particular psychic charades in programmes practice. The appropriateness makutu itself given that it can like Sensing Murder are mar- of a non-custodial sentence for engender barbaric practices and keted as reality programmes! manslaughter has been rightly lead to tragic consequences. questioned. Of additional con- Justice France has been reported The NZ Skeptics also ap- as even expressing the view plaud the following, with Bravo cern, however, is that a golden opportunity appears to have been “Makutu did not kill her. She Awards, for demonstrating criti- drowned”, seemingly completely cal thinking over the past year: missed to condemn the very idea of makutu, that someone can overlooking the fact that it was • Rebecca Palmer, for her be possessed by an evil entity an insane belief in makutu that article The Devil’s in the Details necessitating a special curse- generated all that followed. (Dominion Post 15 June 2009) lifting ceremony or exorcism. Warwick Don pointing out that the makutu case

page 17 meetings

How the NZ Skeptics in the Pub got started

Gold gives the inside story of the beginnings of Skeptics in the Pub meetings in New Zealand.

FIRST heard about Skeptics We have complete control that are willing to start things can I in the Pub on the Skeptics over the website. So if people plan, prepare, recruit and execute Guide to the Universe podcast have suggestions for what we their ideas from. (skeptics-guide.com). It started can do with it, please use the in London, spread to Boston and forums to discuss them. I had used meetup.com to or- continued to spread from there. ganise events before. So, when It originally started as a lecture Another thing I want Skep- I checked the site and found series and currently, world-wide, tics in the Pub to be is a legal about ten others interested in there are 38 listed at the UK site buffer for NZ Skeptics Inc. The Christchurch I paid the money, that started it all. There are a few society is a legal entity; as such announced the list to various that I know of that aren’t listed it can be targeted by lawsuits. sources and waited a month. We there and New Zealand (skeptic- For this reason they have to be got about 25 to the first gathering sinthepub.net.nz) is about to add careful about what they say. and positive things were being to the growing list also. Skeptics in the Pub can provide said. Christchurch is currently an extra layer of separation for holding fortnightly gatherings Skeptics in the Pub is, prima- those that want to speak out and on alternating Mondays and rily, an informal social gathering should things go wrong we can Tuesdays so anyone that can’t of like-minded, rational thinking be a very vocal support system, make one may be able to make individuals. The ‘Pub’ aspect of providing research, funding and the other. We’re also holding a the group is not a requirement. moral support. monthly video night which, to We can just as easily be Skeptics date, has had a decidedly atheist in the Park, at the Pictures, at the I see the Skeptics in the Pub theme. Beach... website as a platform where peo- ple can publish their informed Auckland was next to start; Skeptics in the Pub can be opinion on topics that others Mike Kilpatrick stepped up to what you want it to be: an op- seem to think are controversial. manage that. We were fortunate portunity to socialise in the Big The idea behind this is to provide to have from the Blue Room (Outside); a place a certain amount of legal protec- Skeptic Zone podcast passing to organise real world events; tion to others. While this site through Auckland on the same or an online location to chat and allows the publishing of these night, and were honoured to have discuss the Woo that is out there, articles the content, opinions her as the guest speaker. She particularly in our own country. and copyright are retained by the recorded a Think Tank, which is author. We make a point of sepa- a segment of the podcast. In the future the website will rating any one person’s opinion also include: from all others so that should any The first of the Wellington gatherings was on the Thursday • A resource index to make legal action be taken the entire before the conference. They it easier for you to locate the evi- group can not be targeted and are being run by Tom Neal, dence to counter claims made by potentially taken down. Should who has been running a small, the vocal lunatic fringe this sort of thing happen the site would then provide a location regular gathering of ‘Pharyngu- • A directory of businesses for the concerted defence and lites’– readers of PZ Myers’ blog that deal in Woo, in the hope support of the individual being (scienceblogs.com/pharyngula). that when people search for targeted. When the opportunity arose he them we’re found and can pro- was happy to merge the two. vide links to the evidence that I would also like to see Skep- We managed about 15 on the explains or proves the Woo is, tics in the Pub used as a rally first night and the last of us left well... Woo. point. A location where those at about midnight. The second number 93 - spring 2009 meetings gathering was the post-confer- NZ Skeptics Inc, at the AGM If you live in an area where ence meetup which was posted this year, totally overwhelmed you know a few skeptics and very late (sorry guys). We man- me with an extremely generous would like to meet more, get in aged to get 15-20 though. There donation of $1000 to continue touch and I’ll set up a meetup was a lot of interest from this and expand on the meetups that group for your area. I’m not group in joining the Skeptics in are being run from Meetup.com. looking at running the groups the Pub so Wellington numbers So, things can only get better myself. I’m just providing the should grow fairly quickly ini- from here. online tools for getting things tially. started. bioblog The vertical limit for randomised trials

Alison Campbell considers the evidence for the efficacy of parachutes.

prisingly), they found no ran- bias). They note that individuals domised controlled trials (RCTs) jumping from aircraft without of parachute use. Smith and Pell the help of a parachute are likely begin their discussion with the to have a high prevalence of pre- following inspired statement: “It existing psychiatric morbidity is a truth universally acknowl- (ie they are probably not in their edged that a medical intervention right minds when they jump. justified by observational data You have got to love this paper!). must be in want of verification So any study of parachute use through a randomised control- could well be subject to selec- led trial.” tion bias, in that those using them are likely to have fewer ECENTLY a teacher sent Many medical interventions psychiatric problems than those me a paper titled: ‘Para- probably fall into this category R who don’t. Smith and Pell also chute use to prevent death and – for example, I doubt that sur- put forward the possibility that major trauma related to gravi- gery for severe appendicitis has enforced parachute use is simply tational challenge: systematic ever been subjected to such a a case of mass medicalisation of review of randomised controlled trial. That’s not to say that, where the population by out-of-control trials’ (Smith and Pell, 2003, appropriate (and in the case of doctors – or worse, by evil mul- BMJ 327: 1459-1460). I have appendicitis it almost certainly tinational corporations. (These to say I chuckled when I read isn’t!) such trials shouldn’t be are, of course, charges frequently this – a common charge levelled performed. As Smith and Pell levelled at the medical world, eg against current medical practice point out, hormone therapy for by those who are against inter- by the alternative health lobby post-menopausal women seemed ventions such as vaccination.) is that many medical techniques – on the basis of observational haven’t been subjected to ran- studies – to convey a number This little gem of a paper domised controlled trials (with of health benefits. But RCTs contains some valuable lessons the corollary that it’s thus unfair showed that hormone replace- on the nature of science (and to demand evidence from such ment therapy actually increased more particularly, science-based trials on alternative practices). the risk of ischaemic heart dis- medicine). And it should be read The authors state they con- ease. by anyone who doubts that sci- entists have both creativity and ducted a literature search of some As the authors say, RCTs a good sense of humour. of the major science sources, us- avoid a major weakness of ob- ing the search words ‘parachute’ servational studies: that of bias Alison Campbell is a biology and ‘trial’. However (and unsur- (eg selection bias and reporting lecturer at Waikato University.

page 19 If undelivered, return to: New Zealand NZ Skeptics Permit No. 3357 Permit PO Box 29-492 Christchurch 8540

NZ Skeptics – Now on Facebook!

Facebook provides another way for New Zealand’s skeptics to keep in touch, find out about skeptic-related events, and exchange opinions and information.

The NZ Skeptics Facebook page is open to all, and provides a mix of official society information and user-generated content, including images and video.

Visit www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=111540397760 or follow the link from the NZ Skeptics website.

NZ Skeptics (Inc.) Chair-entity: Vicki Hyde (Christchurch), [email protected] Secretary: Paul Ashton (Christchurch), [email protected] Treasurer: Al Dennard (Putaruru), [email protected] Committee: Claire le Couteur (Christchurch) Julian Kissock (Palmerston North) Robert Woolf (Auckland) Joanna Wojnar (Wellington) Warwick Don (Dunedin) Annette Taylor (Hamilton) Keith Garratt (Rotorua) Nathan Grange (Auckland) Felicity Goodyear-Smith (Auckland) Michelle Coffey (Lower Hutt) Denis Dutton (Christchurch) Paul Trotman (Dunedin) Gold (Christchurch) Don Kinnell (Wairarapa)

Media Contact: Vicki Hyde NZ Skeptic Editor: David Riddell, [email protected] Video Librarian: Alastair Brickell www.skeptics.org.nz/SK:MEMBERSVIDEO