Qingdao Haier Co., Ltd
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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted in Beijing, China Peking University Equity Research / Company Analysis Qingdao Haier Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600690) November 27 2015 Qingdao Haier: The Falling Angel Consumer Discretionary | Household Appliances Initiating Coverage – SELL Investment Highlights: Market Data (as of 27 Nov, 2015) Washing Machine: Haier’s Leading Position Challenged Current Price (CNY) 9.92 We believe that Midea and Little Swan will surpass Haier to Target Price (CNY) 9.11 become the top player in the washing machine sector, as they have % Decrease -8.2% developed a full spectrum of models that can better meet market Rating Sell demands (by double-branding strategies and focus on product 52 Week Range (CNY) 8.61~32.20 quality since 2013) Market Cap (CNY m) 60,742 Air Conditioner: Price War is Stealing Haier’s Market Share Shares Outstanding (m) 6,123 Due to mistaken strategy, Haier didn’t participate in the recent price war in air conditioner sector, leading to a severe market share loss. Market share, as the single most important driver in the sector, is rather hard to take back even if Haier fights a price war in the future Air Conditioner: Haier’s Weak Position in Central Air Conditioner Drags the Whole Segment Down Price Performance (LTM) We estimate the market size of central air conditioner in China to Qingdao Haier (LHS) SSECI (RHS) grow at a 16.3% CAGR to CNY 150bn by 2019, becoming the 18 6000 major source of growth. Despite overall market growth, Haier is 15 5000 losing this pie, owing to the weak technological position 12 4000 Valuations: 9 3000 We initiate a SELL rating on Qingdao Haier with a target price 6 2000 of CNY 9.11. We use DCF and comparable company approaches to derive our target price, with the belief that Haier’s washing machine and air conditioner will miss market expectations Upside Risks: Real Estate: Stronger than expected growth in sales volume of Chinese real estate market, on which white goods are highly dependent Product Upgrade: Demand for product upgrade explodes, bringing forth huge growth for Casarte; Haier’s excessive return from its smart appliance portfolio Mergers and Acquisitions: the overseas assets owned by Haier Group (parent company of Qingdao Haier) may be injected into Qingdao Haier in the future and thus increase the its EPS 1 Figure 1 Haier’s Business Structure 1. Business Description 1.1. Introduction: the World’s Largest White Good Manufacturer Established by reorganizing the Qingdao Refrigerator Factory in 1989, Qingdao Haier is the world’s largest home appliance manufacturer by retail volume. According to China IOL, Haier's refrigerators and washing machines ranked #1 in global market shares in 2014 (17%/14.4% by volume). In the domestic market, it Source: Company Website has a share of 24%/27% in refrigerator and washing machine by volume, according to CMM. With multi-brand lines, sales reached CNY 89bn in 2014, Figure 2 Revenue Breakdown by growing at 2.5% YoY, and net income rose to CNY 6.7bn with a 20.4% YoY. Geographies However, besides growth driven by ongoing urbanization, Haier’s washing 100% machine and refrigerator sales growth have lagged behind Midea in recent years. 10% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 80% Haier has an excellent operational track record, with revenue and net income 60% growing at 23%/20% CAGRs over the past 15 years, but growth has been 40% 90% 89% 89% 89% 88% 88% slowing down (even negative in LTM). Its 3Q15 results have painted a picture of 20% the trends of the business - sales declined by 11.0%, net income declined by 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM 17.0%, both the largest declines ever seen. This sets the tone of our report. China Others 1.2. Business Segments: Multiple Product Lines and Brands Source: Company Filings Haier’s business is divided into 6 segments: Refrigerator, Air-conditioner, Washing Machine, Water Heater, Equipment and Integrated Channel Services. Figure 3 Haier’s Brands It owns a 51.2% stake in Haier Electronics (1169.HK), which contributed 76%/45% of the sales/EBIT in 2014. Haier Electronics’ business includes WM High-end and WH, as well as ICS, which caters to distribution of home appliances for Haier brand and third party brands, logistics for big-item products, and e-commerce. Mid-end Haier has adopted a multi-brand strategy, with high-end brands of Casarte and Fisher & Paykel (not consolidated), a mid-end brand of Haier and mass-market brand of Leader. “Haier” brand dominates 95% of the company’s home appliance sales in FY2014. As part of its high-end strategy, Haier established a team to run Low-end Casarte in 2H2014, hence boosting brand sales up by 40%/40% in 4Q14/1H15. 1.2.1. Refrigerator Source: Company Website As the largest business sector through which Haier rose to prominence, Figure 4 Sales from Refrigerator refrigerator makes up 28% of revenue in FY2014. Haier led the refrigerator market, which Euromonitor expects to grow at 3% volume CAGR over CNY bn 26.0 25.0 25.2 25.3 24.7 2015-2019, with a volume share of 26% (from CMM) in 2014. 24.0 However, refrigerator sales declined by 5.9% YoY in 1H2015, while market was 24.0 22.8 down by 2.1%. Moreover, sales from refrigerator have barely grown since 2011. 22.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM 1.2.2. Washing Machine Washing machine makes up 17% of revenue in FY2014. As a leader in the Figure 5 Sales from Washing Machine washing machine market, Haier shares 27% ofvolume in 2014. Faced with heavy CNY bn 15.3 15.6 competitions from Midea and Little Swan, Haier has lost 5.3% of washing 16.0 14.2 13.3 machine market share since 2012, with growth slowing down in 3Q2015. 14.0 12.2 11.5 1.2.3. Air-conditioner 12.0 10.0 Haier is the third-largest air conditioner manufacturer in China, with a market 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM share of 12% by volume in 2014. While air conditioner makes up 23% of revenue in FY2014, it has a high penetration in the 3rd and 4th tier markets, with 1,200 air conditioner specialty stores and 18,000 county stores. Despite growth during 2 Figure 6 Sales from Air-conditioner FY2010-2014, its air conditioner sales fell by 18.8% YoY in 1H2015. CNY bn 1.2.4. Integrated Channel Services 22.0 20.0 17.9 17.8 Under Haier Electronics, the fast-growing ICS business (4-year CAGR of 26.1%) 18.0 14.8 12.1 serves as the distribution/logistics network in lower tier cities by offering one-stop 14.0 11.4 supply chain services to Haier brands and third party brands. 10.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM In 2013, Haier Electronics reached alliance with Alibaba to strengthen logistics cooperation with e-commerce platform Tmall. This can be a potential source of Figure 7 Sales from ICS growth, but logistics sales from Tmall are still small, accounting for 1% of total CNY bn 18.0 revenue. Further considering the low margin nature of the logistic business (4.8% 20.0 17.4 17.0 12.6 GPM in 1H2015), we are not optimistic about its effect on Haier’s bottom line. 15.0 11.5 6.9 10.0 2. Management and Governance 5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Haier has a dedicated management team that has been continuously driving the Source: Company Filings company’s success. Being with Haier for >30 years, Zhang has turned the small factory with a loss of CNY 1.5m into the world’s leading white good manufacturer. Zhang is one of the most charismatic leaders in China. He received the "Ideas Figure 8 Revenue Breakdown by into Practice" award and was selected into the 2015 Thinkers50 ranking. Known Product Lines as the "Oscars of Management Thinking", the Thinkers50 rankings are admired 100% 11% 16% 16% 21% 20% 20% globally for its objectivity, and have recognized Zhang of his management 13% 80% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 8% methods. Obsessed with the belief in high-value products, Zhang insists Haier 60% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 19% 18% 40% 17% 19% 21% 23% 21% always adhere to the "only value of war, not price war" principle. While we 20% respect his belief, we deem such strategy as a potential risk, given the 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 29% 0% increasingly competitive market. In particular, the sector is one in which 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM RF AC WM WH EQ ICS customers have homogeneous demands, and are price sensitive. Being Source: Company Filings excessively tenacious of " high-end market" can pose threat when it shows sign of losing to low-end markets. Haier delivers best practices in corporate governance. The company was Figure 9 Residential real estate Sales awarded the Best Internal Governance Award by National Business Daily, and msm % Annual Information Disclosure Award by Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, 1,500 100 we evaluated Haier’s quality of governance in three main facets: 1,000 50 Committees - Established Audit, Risk, Compensation, Nomination and 500 0 Governance Committees to oversee company operations. 0 -50 2006 2008 2010 2012 2015 Shareholder Rights - Ensures shareholders enjoy equal rights; decisions YTD Residential Gross Floor Area Sold (LHS) regarding equity incentive plan, director appointments, and share YoY repurchase are made based on the results of open voting. Source: National Bureau of Statistics (PRC) Fairness - Hired lawyers with securities qualification to attend the shareholders' meeting to witness.