China’s March on the 21st Century A Report of the Aspen Strategy Group Kurt M. Campbell, Editor Willow Darsie, Editor u Co-Chairmen Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Brent Scowcroft To obtain additional copies of this report, please contact: The Aspen Institute Fulfillment Office P.O. Box 222 109 Houghton Lab Lane Queenstown, Maryland 21658 Phone: (410) 820-5338 Fax: (410) 827-9174 E-mail: [email protected] For all other inquiries, please contact: The Aspen Institute Aspen Strategy Group Suite 700 One Dupont Circle, NW Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 736-5800 Fax: (202) 467-0790 Copyright © 2007 The Aspen Institute Published in the United States of America 2007 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-471-8 Inv No.: 07-007 CONTENTS PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . v DISCUSSANTS AND GUEST EXPERTS . 1 WORKSHOP AGENDA. 5 SCENE SETTER AND DISCUSSION GUIDE Kurt M. Campbell . 13 THE CHINESE ECONOMY:MAKING STRIDES,GOING GLOBAL Dominic Barton and Jonathan Woetzel Dragon at the Crossroads: The Future of China’s Economy . 25 Lael Brainard Adjusting to China’s Rise . 37 ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT, AND OTHER TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES John Deutch, Peter Ogden, and John Podesta China’s Energy Challenge . 53 Margaret A. Hamburg Public Health and China: Emerging Disease and Challenges to Health . 61 OF SOFT POWER AND CHINA’S PEACEFUL RISE Zha Jianying Popular Culture in China Today . 77 Wang Jisi What China Needs in the World and from the United States. 85 STRATEGIC COMPETITION,REGIONAL REACTIONS, AND GLOBAL GAMBITS Michael J. Green Meet the Neighbors: Regional Responses to China’s Rise . 97 Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry China’s Rise in American Military Strategy. 107 CONSTRUCTING STRATEGIES:POSSIBLE COOPERATION OR INEVITABLE CONFLICT Kenneth Lieberthal The Case for Long-Term Stabilization of U.S.-China Relations. 121 Randall Schriver The Top Ten Reasons the U.S.-China Relationship Can (and Will) Falter . 131 Thomas E. Donilon U.S.-China Relations: The U.S. Domestic Context . 143 CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS Kurt M. Campbell . 157 iv China’s March on the 21st Century PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS From August 4th through August 9th, 2006, the Aspen Strategy Group met in Aspen, Colorado to examine questions surrounding China’s rise into the 21st century. Representing diverse per- spectives from multidisciplinary fields, Aspen Strategy Group members, invited guests, and China experts collaborated on furthering understanding of the complexities of a rising China and the implications for the United States and the international community. This publication presents the 11 papers that helped guide and illuminate our discussions over the week. It also includes the workshop scene setter and a set of concluding observations. Our meeting was a result of the collaborative efforts of a number of organizations and individ- uals to which the Aspen Strategy Group is deeply grateful. We thank the MacArthur Foundation, McKinsey & Company, Citigroup, the Harman Family Foundation, Synergics Energy Development, General Dynamics, and the Friends of the Aspen Strategy Group for their generous and essential support. In particular, we extend our profound appreciation to Robert and MeiLi Hefner for their critical role in bringing for the very first time distinguished Chinese guests to our dialogue, which we hope has contributed toward building the mutual friendship and understand- ing that the Hefners have long envisioned. In addition, Kenneth Lieberthal contributed invaluable expertise and guidance as special advisor to our workshop. We thank our Brent Scowcroft Award Fellows for their important contribution to this initiative, and we wish them well in their future endeavors in the field of foreign and national security policy. Finally, our efforts would not have come together without the leadership, vision, and support of our Co-Chairmen Joseph Nye and Brent Scowcroft. Thank you both for making possible an excep- tional summer session in Aspen. Kurt M. Campbell Willow Darsie Director Deputy Director Aspen Strategy Group Washington, D.C. January 2007 China’s March on the 21st Century v DISCUSSANTS AND GUEST EXPERTS Titles and affiliations are current to the August 2006 workshop. ASPEN STRATEGY GROUP LEADERSHIP Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Distinguished Service Professor, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Brent Scowcroft, President, The Scowcroft Group DIRECTOR Kurt M. Campbell, Senior Vice-President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, and Director of International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR Willow Darsie, Associate Director, Aspen Strategy Group ASPEN INSTITUTE PRESIDENT Walter Isaacson, President and CEO, The Aspen Institute PARTICIPANTS Madeleine Albright, Principal, The Albright Group* Graham T.Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Director, Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Zoë Baird, President, The Markle Foundation* Jeffrey A. Bader, Director of China Initiative and Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Dominic Barton, Chairman, Asia, McKinsey & Company Samuel R. Berger, President and CEO, Stonebridge International LLC Robert Blackwill, President, Barbour Griffith & Rogers International Antony J. Blinken, Democratic Staff Director, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Lael Brainard, Vice President and Director, Global Economy & Development, Brookings Institution* Richard C. Bush, III, Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies. The Brookings Institution * ASG members at the time of the meeting. China’s March on the 21st Century 1 Aspen Strategy Group Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Ford Foundation Professor of Science and International Affairs, John F.Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University* Richard Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics, Harvard University Kenneth W. Dam, Max Pam Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer, University of Chicago Law School* John M. Deutch, Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology* Thomas E. Donilon, Partner, O’Melveny & Myers LLP* Richard A. Falkenrath, Deputy Commissioner for Counter Terrorism, New York Police Department* Peter D. Feaver, Special Advisor for Strategic Planning & Institutional Reform, National Security Council Dianne Feinstein, Senator, United States Senate* Michèle A. Flournoy, Senior Adviser for International Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies* Stephen Friedman, Senior Advisor, Stone Point Capital LLC Robert Gates, President, Texas A&M University* David Gordon, Vice-Chairman, National Intelligence Council Michael J. Green, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies Richard N. Haass, President, Council on Foreign Relations* Margaret A.Hamburg,Senior Scientist, Global Health & Security Initiative, Nuclear Threat Initiative Jane Harman, Congresswoman, United States House of Representatives* Dominic C. F. Ho, Chairman, China and Hong Kong SAR, KPMG Arnold Kanter, Principal and Founding Member, The Scowcroft Group* Nicholas D. Kristof, Columnist, The New York Times* Kenneth Lieberthal, Professor, University of Michigan David A. Lipton, Managing Director, Citigroup* Jane Holl Lute, Assistant Secretary General, Department of Peacekeeping Operations, The United Nations* Sylvia Mathews, President, Global Development Program, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation* Ernest R. May, Charles Warren Professor of American History, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University Sam Nunn, Co-Chairman and CEO, Nuclear Threat Initiative* Thomas O’Gara, Chairman, O’Gara Group* William J. Perry, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor, Stanford University* 2 China’s March on the 21st Century Discussants and Guest Experts John Podesta, President and CEO, Center for American Progress, Jack Reed Senator, United States Senate Mitchell B. Reiss, Vice Provost, College of William and Mary* Susan E. Rice, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution* Dennis B.Ross, Counselor and Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy* James P.Rubin, World Affairs Commentator, Sky News David Sanger, White House Correspondent, The New York Times* Randall Schriver, Partner, Armitage International Wendy R. Sherman, Principal, The Albright Group* Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, Senior Research Scholar, Stanford University, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Alliance Relations, Council on Foreign Relations* Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dean, Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University* James B. Steinberg, Dean & J.J.“Jake” Pickle Regents Chair in Public Affairs, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas, Austin* Strobe Talbott, President, The Brookings Institution* John L. Thornton, President and CEO, JL Thornton, Professor and Director of Global Leadership, Tsinghua University Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International * Dov Zakheim, Vice President, Booz Allen Hamilton Philip D. Zelikow, Counselor, U.S. Department of State Robert B. Zoellick, Vice Chairman, International, Goldman Sachs SPECIAL CHINESE GUESTS Chu Shulong, Director, Institute of Strategic Studies, Professor of Political Science, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University Cui Liru, President, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations Huang Ping, Director General,