Market Perspective Research Entity Number –REP -085
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Inter Market Perspective Research Entity Number –REP -085 Pak Elektron Ltd 10 July 2017 Demand drivers are well-entrenched; initiate with Buy • Syed Waqas Imam We initiate coverage on Pak Elektron Ltd (PAEL) with a Buy rating and Dec’17 TP of PkR120/sh (25% upside). PAEL offers a unique combination of exposure to rising [email protected] consumer demand, and infrastructure growth in the power sector. We forecast 3yr +92-21-111-467-000 Ext: 102 earnings CAGR of 15% (CY16-19F). Our TP implies a target P/E of 11.2x on CY17F EPS. • PAEL’s appliances division – with second largest market share is well positioned to capitalize on rapidly growing refrigerator sales in Pakistan, bolstered by close competitors being in transition and a protective backdrop. Importantly, with greater appliance sales, PAEL will sustain strong margins and improve cash-flows. Initiation of coverage • Also, PAEL’s dominant position in the electrical equipment market will make it a significant contributor to rapid infrastructure development in the power sector amidst Pak Elektron Limited an unprecedented investment boom. Burgeoning participation from ADB and WB in Price (PkR/sh) 96.00 this investment cycle will further improve risk profile of sales to power sector. TP (PkR/sh) 120.00 Stance Buy Well-aligned to turnaround in Energy sector & Consumer demand Upside 25.0% PAEL is a unique growth story with exposure to two high-growth markets in Pakistan – Fwd D/Y 3.1% appliances and electrical equipment, which are both enjoying conducive macro backdrop, Total Return 28.1% surging demand and weak competition. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and Dec’17 Bloomberg / Reuters PAEL PA / PKEL.KA TP of PkR120/sh (25% potential upside). We forecast 3yr earnings CAGR of 15% which is Mkt Cap (US$mn) 455.8 backed by (i) double-digit sales growth in both appliances and sales divisions, (ii) increasing 52wk Hi-Low (PkR/sh) 123.73/65.02 share of appliances sales to overall revenue, which will not only lift margins but also improve 3m Avg. Daily Vol ('000 shrs) 4,490 cash-flows, and (iii) healthy EBITDA margins in tandem with sales growth which will fuel swift deleveraging. With more than half its business in the Consumer sector, we find PAEL’s 3m Avg. Traded Val (US$mn) 4.69 valuations undemanding at a CY17F P/E of 9.0x (PEG: 0.6x). Topline to be pushed by a more prominent appliances segment Favorable macros (low inflation and interest rates), turnaround in power supply, high GDP PAEL - Valuation Snapshot growth, and very low penetration (around 40% of total population) all support double-digit Key Ratios CY15A CY16A CY17F CY18F CY19F sales growth of appliances in Pakistan. Of greatest importance is the improved energy EPS (PkR) 5.79 7.35 10.72 10.60 11.17 availability in tandem with low power tariff, which have improved economics for cooling EPS Growth 28.5% 26.9% 45.9% -1.1% 5.4% appliances (refrigerators, deep freezers and A/C splits) for the masses at large. In addition to PER (x) 16.6 13.1 9.0 9.1 8.6 demand growth, local producers of white goods are protected from imports with a sticky PBV (X) 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 25% duty along with freight advantages in case of refrigerators. In this backdrop, PAEL enjoys 26% market share in the key Refrigerator market; we expect its appliances sales to DPS (PkR) 1.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 grow at a CAGR of 18% over CY16-19F. Additionally, we expect CY17 to be a very good year DY (%) 1.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% for PAEL where appliances sales are expected to jump 31% largely due to weak competition ROE (%) 23.4% 21.2% 23.4% 19.9% 18.2% – as per channel checks Dawlance’s restructuring post acquisition by Arcelik disrupted EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 9.1 7.1 6.8 6.1 supplies at the beginning of year. That said, we expect growth to normalize CY18 onwards. Source: IMS Research Reforms and investments to drive Power division’s revenues The power sector will see massive influx of investments – both in generation and PAEL - Price Performance transmission & distribution (T&D) – and PAEL, being a major supplier of electrical equipment 1M 3M 12M FYTD CYTD (esp. transformers), is set to significantly elevate sales. CPEC related power projects will Absolute % (18.5) 2.9 47.6 (13.0) 34.7 trigger investment in T&D network, because the existing one is often cited as inadequate to Rel. Index % (8.6) 8.5 28.5 (10.1) 40.1 support greater supply. GoP focus on energy sector reforms and curbing blackouts has been Abs. (PRs) (21.8) 2.7 31.0 (14.3) 24.7 crucial, underlying this turnaround. A revival of privatization of distribution companies, akin to K-Electric, will be the next big trigger (potentially post elections). Another key growth Index Abs. (%) (9.8) (5.6) 19.1 (2.9) (5.4) Source: IMS Research area will be EPC contracting where PAEL can see increased order flows amid growing housing and commercial projects. Valuation & Risks We have valued PAEL on a blend of DCF, relative P/E and relative EV/EBITDA valuations. We have used a WACC of 12.4% and terminal growth rate of 4%. Our target price offers a potential upside of 25%. Risks include (i) PKR depreciation, (ii) slowdown in execution of power sector projects, (iii) stronger competition, and (iv) working capital constraints. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 17 & 18 To find our Research on Bloomberg, please type -IMKP <GO> www.jamapunji.pk Perspective Appliances division to grow on the back of macro uptick Glass door a big success Air-conditioners growth due to lower base effect and overall industry growth Source: Company website Deep freezer sales to be pushed by energy availability Launching new products Source: Company website Source: Company website Source: Company website Power division to fare well amid energy sector transformation T&D revamp to boost DT PT sales jump as generation increases Switchgears to replicate transformers sales Source: Company website Source: Company website Source: Company website AMR/AMI Products Energy Meter Energy meter growth privy to implementation of Smart meters Source: Company website Source: IMS Research 2 | P a g e Perspective Company Profile Pak Elektron Ltd is a leading producer of transformers, electric meters, and home appliances. PAEL is considered to be the pioneer of Electrical Capital goods in Pakistan. The company came into existence in 1956 through a technical collaboration with M/s AEG of Germany. AEG exited from the company in 1960s and it was subsequently acquired by the Saigol group which owns 50% stake in the company. The business is divided into Power and Appliances divisions, with appliances contribution exceeding power segment contribution in overall revenue. Wapda and K-Electric are major customers of its Power Division. In its Appliances Division, PAEL has a network of over 2,600 dealers and 21 service centers; offerings include refrigerators, freezers, AC splits and microwaves. Commencement of operations 1956 Geographic presence (Country wide) - Head Office Lahore, Pakistan Net Sales (PkRmn) - CY16 26,834 Assets (PkRmn) - CY16 40,327 Liabilities (PkRmn) - CY16 14,816 Market Capitalization (PkRmn) 47,777 Shareholding Pattern Sponsors, Directors, CEO and children 50.30% Key Ratios CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17F CY18F Bank, DFIs & NBFIs 3.40% Sales growth (YoY) 25% 22% 7% 38% 9% Insurance Companies 2.80% Gross Margin 34% 32% 34% 31% 29% Mutual Funds 7.50% EBITDA margin 25% 23% 24% 22% 21% General public 11.70% 11% 11% 14% 14% 13% Others 6.10% Net margin Foreign Companies 18.20% Leverage ratio (x) 2.95 2.65 1.94 1.84 1.66 Source: IMS Research Power Division Appliance Division 7% 3% 8% 9% Air Conditioners Energy Meters EPC Contracting 15% Refrigerators/Deep Switchgears freezers 69% Transformers Microwave ovens/Others 90% Source: Company accounts Source: Company accounts Appliances division gaining momentum (Revenue Mix) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Power Division Appliances Division Source: Company accounts 3 | P a g e Perspective Topline to be pushed by a more prominent appliances segment Favorable macros (low inflation and interest rates), turnaround in power supply, high GDP growth, and very low penetration (40%) all support double-digit sales growth of appliances in Pakistan. Of greatest importance is the improved energy availability in tandem with low power tariff, which have improved economics for cooling appliances (refrigerators, deep freezers and A/C splits) for the masses at large. In addition to demand growth, local producers of white goods are protected from imports with a sticky 25% duty and freight advantages in case of refrigerators. In this backdrop, PAEL enjoys 26% market share in the key Refrigerator market; we expect its appliances sales to grow at a CAGR of 18% over CY16-19F. Additionally, we expect CY17 to be a very good year for PAEL where appliances sales are expected to jump 31 % largely due to weak competition – as per channel checks Dawlance’s restructuring post acquisition by Arcelik disrupted supplies at the beginning of year. That said, we expect growth to normalize CY18 onwards. PAEL is a major player in the Appliances market PAEL is well positioned to capture the growing demand of white goods in Pakistan. It is one of the leading manufacturers of home appliances in Pakistan, especially in refrigerators and deep freezers.