Building the Climate Change Regime Survey and Analysis of Approaches

ISBN: 978-92-807-3224-5 Job No: DTI/1465/NA BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES

APPENDIX III

KEY HIGHLIGHTS FROM PROPOSALS AND BACKGROUND READING

Working paper

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 1

Authors: Remi Moncel, Paul Joffe, Kevin McCall and Kelly Levin, World Resources Institute

Contributors: Lavanya Rajamani, Center for Policy Research, Jacob Werksman, World Resources Institute, Kaveh Zahedi and Arkadiy Levintanus, United Nations Environment Programme

Contact: [email protected]; to access the full paper, visit: http://www.wri.org/publication/building-the-climate-change-regime

Please note that the summaries herein are not intended to reflect the entirety of the content in each of the proposals examined, but to highlight the particular aspects that relate to the key issues reviewed in the paper. KEY ISSUE 1: Options Under the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Commitments and Actions

Andersen, S. and Sarma, K. 2010. This paper discusses reforms to the Clean Development Mechanism and “Making Climate Change and Ozone Treaties complementary actions under the Montreal Protocol to contend with HFC-23 Work Together to Curb HFC-23 and Other “Super emissions to enable all countries to cooperate for the protection of the climate Greenhouse Gases.” and the ozone layer. Natural Resources Defense Council

Australia. 2009 The government of Australia submitted a draft protocol to the UNFCCC for “Submission by Government of Australia to the COP-15. The protocol envisions commitments and actions by all countries, in UNFCCC”, 2009, line with common but differentiated responsibilities where a spectrum of effort available at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/ is undertaken based on national circumstances. To achieve the overall objective cop15/eng/05.pdf. of the Convention, Parties would maintain national schedules to register Last accessed October 3, 2011. nationally appropriate commitments or actions. These schedules could be amended over time to register additional commitments or actions which would enhance the global mitigation outcome.

Bell, R. and Ziegler, M. forthcoming. The authors highlight the lessons that can be learned from international Reimagining a climate agreement: lessons security and economic regimes that may apply to international climate policy. from managing other challenges that transcend While modesty and sensitivity are required in transplanting these lessons, national boundaries, they can nonetheless serve to incentivize progress in international climate World Resources Institute, Washington DC. governance. Lessons include the incremental approach that can allow a Forthcoming. regime to emerge as trust develops between Parties: this is important for transparency and verification. They cite the transformative power of reviews, expert exchanges, consultative processes, and non-adversarial discussion to encourage Parties to undertake deeper engagement.

Bice, K. et al. 2009. The authors examine the contribution of black carbon to global warming as Black Carbon: A Review and Policy well as its negative impacts on human health. They discuss the sources of Recommendations. black carbon, noting that while it has a warming impact it is coemitted with Woodrow Wilson School of Public Affairs, Princeton organic carbon, which has a cooling effect. Thus, the ratio of organic carbon University to black carbon makes a critical difference in the net warming impact. They also note the significant warming effect of black carbon when it is present in Arctic or Himalayan regions and its contribution to glacial melt. They identify strategies to reduce black carbon emissions, citing, for example, the benefits of transnational cooperation to tackle black carbon emissions, implementing fuel standards and domestic heating standards, among others.

Bodansky, D. 2007. Bodansky notes that international sectoral agreements could contribute to International Sectoral Agreements in a Post-2012 a post-2012 effort as one element of a broader framework. They appear Climate Framework. best suited to advancing agreement and action by helping to defuse Working Paper, Pew Center on Global Climate competitiveness concerns and treating critical technology and finance issues Change, 2007. within a sector where they are most urgent. He concludes by noting that in sectors where industry is well organized at the international level (cement, aluminum) companies facing competitive imbalances may have an incentive to initiate a sectoral approach. Failing this it may fall to governments to take the initiative if sectoral agreements are to emerge.

Bond, T. et al. 2005. The authors analyze governance strategies for short term forcings and find “Can Reducing Black Carbon Emissions Counteract that joint consideration along with carbon dioxide regulation is consistent Global Warming?” with the language of the UNFCCC. They note the difficulty in terms of cost Environmental Science and Technology, July 2005. and complexity for addressing such forcings, particularly in Annex I countries where only marginal additional abatement is possible. In non-Annex I countries, however, reducing particulate matter (e.g., black carbon) is economically feasible and can be undertaken in parallel with UNFCCC efforts.

4 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 1: Options Under the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Commitments and Actions

Cosbey, A. et al. 2005. The paper sets out to assess the extent to which the CDM is fully exploiting Realizing the Development Dividend. its potential to deliver benefits to developing countries, beyond those strictly International Institute for Sustainable Development. related to climate change, in the areas of economic growth through investment, technological evolution, poverty alleviation, as well as environmental and human health improvements. The flows are not substantial compared to overseas development assistance, but nonetheless there are a number of reasons to consider the CDM an important engine of sustainable development. This paper recommends a number of policy options to enhance benefits, including reforming the CDM project cycle, changing the rules of the CDM, engaging development assistance, and defining sustainable development.

Daviet, F, et al. 2009. The paper sets out the need to establish a range of accounting and Forests in the Balance Sheet: Lessons from methodological tools to ensure the effectiveness of REDD programs as Developed Country Land Use Change and Forestry agreed upon in the Bali road map. The authors look at lessons from the Greenhouse Gas Accounting and Reporting experience of Annex I countries in accounting for forest-related emissions and Practices.Working Paper, sequestration under their emission reduction commitments with regards to their World Resources Institute. Washington DC. implementation of LULUCF provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. den Elzen, M., Olivier, J., and Berk, M. 2007. This paper provides an overview of various approaches for including maritime An analysis of options for including international and aviation emissions in a future agreement. aviation and maritime emissions in a post-2012 climate mitigation regime. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

European Union. 2011. Building on its objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon 80-95 percent by 2050 compared to 1990, the EU has set out a roadmap economy in 2050. outlining milestones and challenges between now and 2050. The report Brussels, March. examines investment opportunities in different sectors, including power, residential, industry, and transport, to determine the pathway to a low-carbon economy by 2050. The Commission intends to use the Roadmap as a basis for developing sector specific policy initiatives to support the transition to a low carbon economy, as well as a means to stimulate the international negotiations in the run-up to COP17.

Faber, J. et al. 2007. This proposal presents several means for including aviation and maritime Climate Change Scientific Assessment And Policy emissions in a future climate agreement. Analysis: Aviation and Maritime Transport in a Post 2012 Climate Policy Regime. Netherlands Research Programme on Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis, April 2007.

Grieshop, A. et al. 2009. This paper discusses the mitigation potential of addressing black carbon and “A black carbon mitigation wedge,” argues for inclusion of black carbon under a future climate policy under the Nature Geoscience. Volume 2, August. UNFCCC.

Hare, W. et al. 2010. The authors put forward an argument that a centralized, top-down, legally “The architecture of the global climate regime: a binding climate governance architecture is the best option to pursue an top-down perspective,” ambitious 2˚ C or 1.5˚ C goal. This requires strong global coordination and Climate Policy. Vol. 10 (6). strict targets and timetables for countries that need to be agreed-upon and implemented as soon as possible to address climate change with the effort and urgency that it necessitates.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 5 KEY ISSUE 1: Options Under the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Commitments and Actions

IPCC. 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report outlines observed changes in climate, their Fourth Assessment Report: climate change 2007. – effects, and anthropogenic causes. Additionally, the authors summarize Synthesis report. the literature on projected climate impacts, including detailed analyses of Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_ regionally-specific impacts. The authors also outline adaptation and mitigation data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_ strategies that may be implemented to address and minimize these impacts. synthesis_report.htm. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

IPCC. 2006. The IPCC Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories provide Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. methodologies for estimating national GHG inventories, addressing both GHG Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/ sources and sinks. The Guidelines cover general reporting guidelines and public/2006gl/index.html. sectoral guidelines for energy, industrial, agricultural, forestry, land use, and Last accessed October 3, 2011. waste sectors.

Levin, K. 2010. The authors provide recommendations and options for harmonizing accounting Remedying Discord in the Accord: Accounting rules for developed country, or Annex I, emissions reduction pledges for a Rules for Annex I Pledges in a Post-2012 post-2012 climate policy under discussion in the UN Framework Convention Climate Agreement. on Climate Change‘s (UNFCCC) Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Working Paper, Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) negotiations track. World Resources Institute. Washington, D.C.

McKiernan, C. and Loftus-Farren, Z.. 2011. The authors propose that the COP mandate a Process to support states in Submission to UNFCCC pursuant to FCCC/ the development and implementation of policies that conform to human rights AWGLCA/2010/L.7, paragraphs 93-94. norms, thus ensuring that responses to global climate changes are effective, sustainable, and advance global human development, security, equality, and freedom. The authors propose that the Process should clarify existing human rights principles; provide a forum for government and expert dialogue and information sharing about the impacts of mitigation and adaptation policies on human rights; include all parties; and that all of the features of this Process should be implemented at international, regional, and national levels of policymaking.

Molina, M. et al. 2009. This paper discusses strategies to address short-lived non-CO2 greenhouse Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the gases and particles, such as amending the Montreal Protocol and the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to promotion of policies to address black carbon.

complement cuts in CO2 emissions National Academy of Sciences, 2009. December, volume 106, No. 49.

National Academy of Sciences. 2010. This book reviews the current scientific evidence regarding climate change Advancing the science of climate change. and examines the status of the scientific research efforts in the United States. The National Academies Press. It describes the role that climate change science, broadly defined, can play Washington DC. Available at: http://www.nap.edu/ in developing knowledge and tools to assist decision makers as they act to catalog.php?record_id=12782. respond to climate change. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

Pan, J. 2003. This approach focuses on issues relating to mitigation and adaptation efforts Human development goals with low emissions. from a developing country perspective. Pan proposes that commitments by The Beijing Academy of Social Sciences. developing countries be linked to human development goals as the first priority and then translated to carbon goals in the future. Voluntary, conditional or obligatory commitments will be taken by Parties to establish a low-carbon development path. These commitments will be subject to a comprehensive review at the end of each commitment period.

6 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 1: Options Under the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Commitments and Actions

Including Land Use in a Climate Agreement Post- paper discusses the weaknesses of the current system of land use, land- 2012: Improving the Kyoto Protocol Approach,” use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting in the Kyoto Protocol's first Environment Science & Policy. commitment period, and proposes a mechanism based on that existing June, volume 10, issue 4, pages 295-305. structure, but with modifications to address the weaknesses.

Shine, K. et al. 2007. This paper explores the implication of the use of the global temperature change “Comparing the effect of emissions of short- potential (GTP) versus global warming potential (GWP, currently used) in and long-lived climate agents,” addressing both short- and long-lived climate forcings in a future climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, July, vol. 365 no. 1856.

UNEP. 2010. This collaboration between UNEP, the European Climate Foundation and the The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen National Institute of Ecology, Mexico, provides policymakers with an overview Accord Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming of the results from various studies on future emissions trajectories consistent to 2 or 1.5°C? with various global temperature limits. The assessment is based on the pledges brought forward by Parties under the Copenhagen Accord. It discusses how stronger accounting rules on land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), surplus emissions units, and double counting of emission reductions could help close the gap between current emissions trajectories and those consistent with temperature limits.

UNEP / WMO. 2011. The report analyzes how short-term forcings (black carbon and tropospheric Integrated Assessment of black carbon and ozone) can be regulated to achieve relatively rapid improvements in climate tropospheric ozone. change mitigation efforts in vulnerable areas. The regulatory measures outlined Available at: http://www.unep.org/dewa/ in the report complement longer-term measures to address carbon dioxide, that Portals/67/pdf/BlackCarbon_SDM.pdf. on their own, if fully implemented, would reduce future global warming by 0.5˚ Last accessed October 3, 2011. C (within a 0.2˚-0.7˚ C range). A range of measures can be implemented under existing international environmental agreements and national and sub-national air pollution regulations, with benefits in terms of global warming reduction, improved crop yield and improved public health.

Wara, M. et al. 2006. The authors examine the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), noting that Measuring the Clean Development Mechanism’s it achieved some of the goals it set out to, albeit with limited success. They Performance and Potential, look at options to enhance mitigation efforts beyond carbon dioxide in a Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, market-based regime. They hold that adopting a multilateral fund for industrial Stanford University. emissions of ozone depleting substances will enable broader (but shallower) participation in a future regime. They cite the absence of this as one of the biggest flaws in the Kyoto regime.

WBGU. 2011. The report outlines a new ‘social contract’ to move the world from traditional World in transition: a social contract fossil and nuclear energy production to a low-carbon, environmentally for sustainability. sustainable mode. It puts forward three “transformation fields” that are German Advisory Council on Global Change proposed to enable a transition to climate-friendly energy production within (WBGU) the scope of sustainable development. These fields include energy systems (including transport), urban areas, and land-use systems (including agriculture, forestry and deforestation).

World Bank. 2010. The paper outlines the successes and shortcomings of international carbon State and trends of the carbon market 2010. markets in 2010. The authors note that clear policy and regulatory signals must May, Washington DC. be urgently provided if a stronger global market is to emerge. To provide the regulatory certainty that is needed, there must be considerable investment in carbon finance mechanisms, coupled with other policy and finance instruments, to address the threat posed by climate change.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 7 KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Aasrud, A. et al. 2009. The authors review proposals for the design of sectoral market mechanisms Sectoral Market Mechanisms: Issues for negotiation that are the subject of debate within the UNFCCC negotiations and in and domestic implementation. domestic legislation. They note that attention needs to be paid to design and International Energy Agency. 2009. implementation elements at the international level, including how sectoral mechanisms will interact with existing market mechanisms. They highlight technical requirements that Parties might want to consider, including issues of compliance and liability.

Abbott, K. 2011. Abbott presents an analysis of the complex institutional environment for The transnational regime complex for climate change governance, presenting the polycentric regime for adopting climate change. rules and funding public goods. He maps the various decentralized actors Available at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. involved, including businesses, municipalities, and combinations of public cfm?abstract_id=1813198. and private actors that operate transnationally. The operation of small and Last accessed October 3, 2011. medium organizations provides a strong normative argument for governance at multiple scales, where there is a unique capacity for these actors in social and ecological contexts. Abbott notes the coordination and orchestration that is necessary for these organizations to cooperate, and points out that it is questionable whether sufficient orchestration can be achieved as rapidly as is necessary to address global climate change.

Aldy, J. and Stavins, R. (eds). 2010. The editors compile submissions by authors identifying key design elements Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy Research of international climate architecture that are scientifically sound (consistent from the Harvard Project on International with achieving the objective of stabilizing GHGs at levels that avoid dangerous Climate Agreements. anthropogenic interference with the global climate), economically rational Cambridge University Press. (cost-effective), and politically pragmatic (likely to bring the US and engage key, rapidly-growing developing countries in increasingly meaningful ways over time). They maintain anything is possible— from a highly centralized Kyoto-like architecture to proposals that are outside of the UNFCCC, such as proposals for G8+5 or G20.

Allcott, H. and Mullainathan, S. 2010. The authors analyze how non-price-based behavioral incentives can be used “Behavior and Energy Policy”. to effect behavioral change: peripheral factors - "nudges" - can influence real- Science. March 5. 327:5970 world outcomes. They cite the example of OPOWER power company grading neighboring houses in terms of their rankings for energy efficiency in order to promote amicable competition to spur energy efficient behavior. They note the need for research into a nuanced effort by policymakers to translate behavioral science into scaled real-world interventions.

Au, B. et al. 2011. The authors propose a complementary and supplementary approach to the Beyond a Global Deal: a UN+ approach to climate UNFCCC process to secure effective global climate governance by engaging governance. Global Governance 2020. in a mix of top-down and bottom-up strategies. Cooperative bilateral ties, Available at: http://www.gg2020.net/fileadmin/ especially between the US and China are important. Local, municipal and media/gg2020/GG2020_2011_Climate_Beyond_ regional initiatives can act as bottom-up policy drivers domestically, and Global_Deal.pdf.pdf. centralized regional coordination can design strong top-down climate policy. Last accessed October 3, 2011. Civil society has a role to play in changing the narrative of how climate change is discussed.

8 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Barnes, P. et al. 2008. The authors propose a system that they posit deals fairly with market- Creating an Earth Atmospheric Trust: a system based mechanisms for climate change governance to protect new to control climate change and reduce poverty. governance arrangements from political manipulation and corruption while Available at: http://www.synapse9.com/ref/EATv4- simultaneously contributing to the alleviation of global poverty. They propose ScienceArticle.pdf. the implementation of a global trust—the Earth Atmospheric Trust—that would Last accessed October 3, 2011. create a global GHG cap, with revenues generated from the auctioning of permits being redistributed partially on a per capita basis globally and partially directed at encouraging technological and social innovation to address climate change. The authors note that agreeing on and implementing such a plan will be an ambitious task, but that the plan incorporates broad principles necessary for an effective global regime.

Baron, R. and Bygrave, S. 2002. The authors look at options for linking trading systems, noting the benefits Towards international emissions trading” design and challenges involved. They find that solutions can be designed where implications for linkages. technical barriers to linking exist, although some solutions risk undermining IEA/OECD. the environmental integrity of market mechanisms, and may be burdensome in terms of implementation and monitoring.

Barrett. 2008. Barrett discusses the shortcomings of international climate governance to date Climate change negotiations reconsidered and presents his analysis for what future climate architecture must accomplish Progressive Governance, London. to be successful: broad participation (not necessarily universal), ensure Available at: http://tria.fcampalans.cat/images// compliance, and require parties to change their behavior substantially. He posits Scott_Barrett.pdf. that a technological revolution will be required in order to facilitate climate Last accessed October 3, 2011. mitigation and adaptation globally.

Barrett, S. 1993. Barrett’s econometric analyses show that international environmental Self-enforcing international environmental agreements that are ‘self-enforcing’ (i.e., inhibit free-riding) may not be able agreements. to improve substantially on a non-cooperative outcome. To ensure improved CSERGE Working Paper, 92-34. management of shared environmental resources, an agreement must be made attractive to countries to want to join and carry out the terms of the agreement. Benefits can take the form of economic gain, improved public health, or improved environmental integrity. Barrett claims that an international environmental agreement can sustain a large number of signatories only when the difference in terms of benefit between the non-cooperative and fully cooperative outcome is very small.

Barrett, S. and Stavins, R. 2003. Premised on the proposition that the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol appear Increasing participation and compliance in incapable of inducing significant participation and compliance, the authors international environmental agreements. look to other possible architectures vis-à-vis their capacity for these two Belfer Center, elements. They find that proposals that are best in terms of cost-effectiveness Harvard University. (conditional on implementation), primarily market-based instruments, are less likely to be effective in promoting participation and compliance, while those proposals focusing on domestic measures and policies appear better at promoting both, which the authors posit need to be addressed in a global climate regime. They find that the creation of incentives for international cooperation is a problem of second-best institutional design and conclude that more attention needs to be given to cost-effectiveness and probability of implementation—the aspects that will affect the degrees of participation and compliance that can reasonably be expect to be forthcoming.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 9 KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Biermann F. et al. 2009. The authors discuss the fragmentation of global governance, listing the various “The fragmentation of global governance advantages and disadvantages of a decentralized regime. They note that formal architectures: a framework for analysis” coordination between the UN climate regime and other institutions could in Global Environmental Politics, 9:4. ensure that there is work towards a common objective. They find that the UN regime needs to be better coordinated with non-environmental institutions in order to minimize ‘Conflictive Fragmentation’ which undermines efforts and can be counterproductive to the effectiveness and ambition of the regime.

Bodansky, D. and Diringer, E. 2010. E. The authors argue that a comprehensive and binding global deal has strong The Evolution of Multilateral Regimes: Implications virtues and should be the ultimate goal of the climate negotiations, but that in for Climate Change. working towards it, parties should focus their efforts on concrete incremental Pew Center Global Climate Change Policy Paper, steps both within and outside the UNFCCC. Parties should therefore seize December. opportunity for progress in parallel efforts outside the UNFCCC, all the while remaining mindful of the long-term objective of a binding framework within the FCCC, thereby guarding the legitimacy and credibility of that regime so that it will remain the forum of choice once global political will exists.

Bodansky, D. 2011. Bodansky looks at developments in the international negotiations noting that a A tale of two architectures. more bottom-up approach is emerging. He notes further that this is politically Available at: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. pragmatic for building trust and gaining experience in climate regulation to cfm?abstract_id=1773865. help unblock the current stalemate leading to more ambitious governance in Last accessed October 3, 2011. the future.

Bodansky, D. 2007. Bodansky notes that international sectoral agreements could contribute to International sectoral agreements in a post-2012 a post-2012 effort as one element of a broader framework. They appear climate framework. best suited to advancing agreement and action by helping to defuse Pew Center Global Climate Change Policy Paper. competitiveness concerns and treating critical technology and finance issues within a sector where they are most urgent. He concludes by noting that in sectors where industry is well organized at the international level (cement, aluminum) companies facing competitive imbalances may have an incentive to initiate a sectoral approach. Failing this, it may fall to governments to take the initiative if sectoral agreements are to emerge.

Bodansky, D. et al. 2004. The paper surveys 44 proposals for a future climate regime. International climate efforts beyond 2012: a survey These proposals range from ones that build upon the UNFCCC in a Kyoto- of approaches. style agreement, to those advocating other approaches, including bottom-up, or Pew Center on Global Climate Change, December. fragmented approaches.

Bond, T. et al. 2005. The authors analyze governance strategies for short-term forcings and find “Can Reducing Black Carbon Emissions Counteract that joint consideration, along with carbon dioxide regulation, is consistent Global Warming?” with the language of the UNFCCC. They note the difficulty in terms of cost Environmental Science and Technology, July 2005. and complexity for addressing such forcings, particularly in Annex I countries where only marginal additional abatement is possible. In non-Annex I countries, however, reducing particulate matter (e.g., black carbon) is economically feasible and can be undertaken in parallel with UNFCCC efforts.

Bradley, R. et al. 2008. The report analyzes international competitiveness concerns affecting US Leveling the carbon playing field. domestic momentum on climate change. The authors identify a number of World Resources Institute, Washington DC. options that are available to mitigate these concerns by leveling the carbon playing field. These include implementation of market-based mechanisms – carbon trading or a carbon tax - for energy-intensive industries globally or using trade measures or use of trade measures such as border tax adjustments to internalize a carbon price and minimize competitive disadvantages of imports from jurisdictions with no regulatory scheme.

10 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Bradley, R. et al. 2007. The authors note that many heavy-emitting industrial sectors are not Slicing the pie: sector-based approaches to especially conducive to international cooperation due to considerations international climate agreement: issues and options. such as international competitiveness, uniformity of products and processes, World Resources Institute, Washington DC. and concentration of actors. These factors are likely to influence whether sectoral agreements or other initiatives are feasible or appropriate for such areas of activity. They further note that there is strong logic to prefer more comprehensive approaches over a sector-by-sector breakdown because, for a given level of ambition, dividing climate effort into sectoral approaches will tend to increase cost, reduce transparency, and increase the negotiating burden for governments.

Buchner, B. and Carraro, C.. 2004. Buchner and Carraro explore the idea of replacing international cooperation Economic and Environmental Effectiveness of a on GHG emission control with international cooperation on climate-related Technology-based Climate Protocol. technological innovation and diffusion. They apply a game-theory approach Working Papers Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 61. to determine the ability of a technology-based regime to be immune from free-riding of non-parties, and posit that if their model were to hold in reality, then a technology-based regime could achieve lower emissions and be more ambitious than a “Kyoto forever” regime because of stronger incentives to participate and better performance in terms of environmental effectiveness.

Butti, L. 2011. Butti comments on the current role of climate litigation, echoing Professor “The tortuous road to liability: a critical survey Osofsky’s assertion that litigation fulfills a “gap filling role” in response to policy on climate change litigation in Europe and failures. He finds that within the US, cases fall into 3 categories: seeking North America,” legislation for mitigation action, claims arising from such regulations where they Sustainable Development Law and Policy, WCL, exist, and tort-based claims. Within the EU, where there is a wider legislative 2011:2. framework. Cases tend to revolve around the implementation of rules, for example, concerning the EU ETS.

Cameron, E. 2011. The working paper examines the emergence of a discourse linking climate Development, climate change, and human rights: change and human rights to assess their social and political implications as from the margins to the mainstream? they relate to development practitioners. Cameron explores how vulnerable Social Development Working Papers, World Bank. populations have used human rights as a transformative socio-political strategy Paper No. 123, March. to shape how practitioners look at climate change analysis, process, advocacy, and resource allocation. Cameron notes that, moving forward, proponents of a human rights-based approach to climate change will need to demonstrate the added value to the practical arts of crafting policies on mitigation, adaptation, and finance to be effective in improving outcomes for vulnerable populations.

Cameron, E. 2010. Cameron provides an in-depth assessment of the interface between human “Human rights and climate change: moving from rights and climate change. He addresses the threat of global climate change, an intrinsic to an instrumental approach,” discussing how climate impacts and policy responses can undermine the Georgia Journal of International and realization of human rights, and what tools human rights can provide to Comparative Law, 38:673. development agencies to make climate-smart decisions. Cameron concludes that human rights holds some promise for approaching and managing climate change, but that proponents of this approach need to make a more persuasive argument to streamline and mainstream human rights in international climate policy.

Cao, J. 2010. The paper proposes a top-down, burden-sharing rule designed to produce a Beyond Copenhagen: Reconciling international fair distribution of burdens across countries while giving priority to economic fairness, economic development and development and achieving emission reductions consistent with the 2˚C climate protection. guardrail. The paper sets out design elements of a regime that are important, Tsinghua University/Belfer Center, Harvard especially form a developing country perspective. University.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 11 KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Chatham House, E3G. 2007. The report outlines areas where there is mutuality of interest between the EU Changing Climates: Interdependencies on energy and China and focuses on the areas fertile for bilateral cooperation between and climate security for China and Europe. the two economies. These interdependencies can be capitalized on to lead to Chatham House, London. a 'win-win' situation in terms of economic growth, climate, energy supply, and security.

The CNA Corporation. 2007. The authors— a group of retired senior US military commanders—examine the National security and the threat of climate change. national security implication of climate change. They find climate change to be a “threat multiplier,” exacerbating security concerns and causing widespread instability in already unstable regions, and even leading to instabilities in currently stable ones. They recommend that climate change considerations be fully integrated into national security and defense strategies, and that the US should commit to stronger international leadership and global partnerships to build capacity and resilience.

Cole, D. 2011. Cole offers a theoretical framework for restructuring global climate policy. He From global to polycentric climate governance builds on work by Elinor Ostrom, among others, to put forward a proposal based EUI Working Papers, 30. on polycentric governance as an alternative to a completely top-down regime. This approach would see more policy decisions being made and implemented at lower levels of government, including local, state, and regional governments that might allow for greater innovation, learning, and cross-influence among various units of government. Cole argues that any successful governance system to address climate change must function as part of a larger polycentric set of nested institutions and organizations at various governmental levels.

Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). 2010. This paper discusses the status of current climate change governance The global climate change regime. structure, its advantages and disadvantages, and the scale of the challenge Available at: http://www.cfr.org/climate-change/ ahead. It then lays out options for strengthening the climate regime. Key global-climate-change-regime/p21831. recommendations include strengthening the IPCC, limiting the UNFCCC Last accessed October 3, 2011. negotiations to MRV and setting overall ambition, moving the rest to the G20 or MEF, reforming the CDM to create a robust system of international carbon offsets, forcing progress on US policy through energy efficiency regulations, subsidizing renewable energy, and reforming the Bretton Woods and UN institutions to better incorporate climate change.

Dasgupta, P. and Taneja, N. 2010. The authors look at the evolution of the trade regime and analyze the effect “Trade, technology transfer and climate change”. on developing countries of using trade mechanisms to govern climate change, Economic & Political Weekly, Jan. 2010. quantifying negative impacts of BTAs on export industries. They note that agreements on technology transfer will be critical and that private sector participation in sectors such as energy efficiency, fuel switching and industrial processes needs to be supported.

den Elzen, M., Olivier, J., and Berk, M. 2007. This paper provides an overview of various approaches for including maritime An analysis of options for including international and aviation emissions in a future agreement. aviation and maritime emissions in a post-2012 climate mitigation regime. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

12 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Dutt, G. 2009. Dutt proposes that advanced developing countries take on commitments to ”A climate agreement beyond 2012” limit future emission increases, based on the Contraction and Convergence Economic & Political Weekly, Nov. 2009. proposal. The development status could be determined by a metric such as GDP or the Human Development Index (HDI). There would be differentiation for countries that have achieved more emission-efficient development than others. Dutt proposes separate regulations for energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and for forestry, agriculture and fluorinated gases. Performance tracking would be accomplished by expert teams from other countries.

EU-Africa Joint Declaration on Climate Change. Sets forth a bi-regional commitment to cooperate to address climate change as 2008. 11th Ministerial Meeting of EU Troika and "a serious global challenge which demands urgent, cooperative, fair and shared African Ministers, Addis Ababa. responsibility to act." Reiterates regions' joint commitment to the objectives and principles of the UNFCCC.

E3G. 2007. The briefing paper sets out how the EU can undertake ambitious action to EU Energy Strategy Review: Driving investment in tackle climate change and simultaneously bolster energy security, and notes clean and secure energy. how Europe is better-placed than any other major economy to overcome Available at: http://www.e3g.org/images/uploads/ structural barriers to achieving economic, environmental, and security gains E3G_EU_Strategic_Energy_Review.pdf. from radical energy efficiency improvement. E3G outlines a number of Last accessed October 3, 2011. options that would ensure an integrated energy and climate policy, including coordination of regulation, setting mandatory targets in various sectors (energy, renewables, cars), and a common external energy and climate security policy to facilitate cooperation with the US, China, India, and Japan.

Foresight. 2011. The report highlights five key challenges for global food security, two of which The future of food and farming. are intricately linked to climate change. It notes the major failings of the food Available at: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/ system today and the unsustainability of current practices to conclude that, bispartners/foresight/docs/food-and-farming/11- among other things, addressing climate change and achieving sustainability 546-future-of-food-and-farming-report.pdf. need to be recognized as dual imperatives. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability The authors propose an international climate regime along the following lines: (FEASTA). 2008. (1) A guaranteed declining cap on GHGs is defined. (2) A corresponding Cap and Share: A Fair Way to Cut amount of Production Authorization Permit (PAP) quotas are emitted each year. Greenhouse Emissions. (3) PAPs are equally allocated to every adult on Earth. (4) Every adult can either Available at: http://www.feasta.org/documents/ sell (at the market price) or destroy their PAPs. (5) Fossil energy suppliers have energy/Cap-and-Share-May08.pdf. Last accessed to buy a certain amount of PAPs based on their production. October 3, 2011.

Ghosh, A. 2010. Ghosh looks at parallels proposed by other authors between climate change Making climate change look like trade: questions on and trade, classifying these arguments in terms of political expediency, incentives, flexibility and credibility flexibility, and credibility. Important areas include political will and reducing Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. uncertainties and risk. Ghosh notes that shifting to smaller forums based on short-term expediency advantages can have longer-term disadvantages for overall ambition of the regime.

GLOBE. 2011. The report looks at climate legislation in 16 major economies, most of which Climate change legislation: laws, patterns and has been enacted since 2009. GLOBE notes that much greater attention trends Global Legislators Organisation should be paid to national-level policy and legislative development as this is GLOBE International. where there is a shift in the debate and that governments are beginning to Available at: http://www.lwec.org.uk/sites/default/ realize that acting to confront climate change is in their national interest. files/GLOBE-CLIMATE-LEGISLATION-STUDY[1]. pdf. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 13 KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Grieshop, A. et al. This paper discusses the mitigation potential of addressing black carbon “A black carbon mitigation wedge,” and argues for inclusion of black carbon under a future climate policy under Nature Geoscience. August 2009. Volume 2. the UNFCCC.

Hare, W. et al. The authors put forward an argument that a centralized, top-down, legally “The architecture of the global climate regime: binding climate governance architecture is the best option to pursue an a top-down perspective,” ambitious 2˚ C or 1.5˚ C goal. This requires strong global coordination and Climate Policy, 2010 Vol. 10 (6). strict targets and timetables for countries that need to be agreed upon and implemented as soon as possible to address climate change with the effort and urgency that it necessitates.

Hartley, N. and Wood, C. 2004. The authors note that the Aarhus Convention presents a unique opportunity “Public participation in environmental impact for public participation procedures to be enhanced. In doing so, they suggest assessment—implementing the Aarhus Convention”. that if real improvements are to be secured, and the potential of the Aarhus Environmental Impact Assessment Review Convention maximized, the focus needs to be on supplying opportunities for the 25: 4. 2005 public to participate, as well as ensuring that these opportunities are effective.

Houser, T. 2010. Houser assesses the risks and rewards of tackling global climate change in the A role for the G20 in addressing climate change? G-20, an intergovernmental organization consisting of economies responsible Peterson Institute of International Economics, for over 75 percent of GHG emissions globally. He finds that in its current Washington DC. October 2010. format, there is a limited role that the G-20 can play to supplement the UN- led process, but that it can play a complementary role with regard to certain functions, including accelerating deployment of clean energy technology, mobilizing public and private finance, and mitigating emissions within the economies represented at the G-20.

Houser, T. 2010. Outlines the successes achieved at COP16 and highlights the steps forward Less can be more: that align with major emitting states' political dynamics to move forward. protecting Cancun’s fragile victory. Building on the mandate agreed upon at COP16 may lead to a legally-binding Peterson Institute for International Economics, agreement in the long-term, but important progress can be made towards a Washington DC. politically-binding agreement in the short-term, which is vital to keep the climate December 2010. governance process alive.

International Institute for Sustainable Development The briefing paper analyzes the relationship between the WTO and the (IISD). 2008. UNFCCC. It notes that the successful reduction of GHG emissions globally will The World Trade Organization and multilateral require the cooperation of organizations not traditionally involved in the climate environmental agreements. change sphere, including the WTO. It notes further that there may be scope Available at: http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2010/matrix_ within the WTO to potentially negotiate an agreement reviewing the trade-law wto_meas.pdf. aspects of climate change policy, and that WTO rules could be modified to Last accessed October 3, 2011. become more open to trade measures used to address climate change.

IPCC. 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report outlines observed changes in climate, their Fourth Assessment Report: climate change 2007. – effects, and anthropogenic causes. Additionally, the authors summarize synthesis report. the literature on projected climate impacts, including detailed analyses of Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_ regionally-specific impacts. The authors also outline adaptation and mitigation data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_ strategies that may be implemented to address and minimize these impacts. synthesis_report.htm. Last accessed October 3, 2011..

14 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

IPCC. 1999. The report assesses the effects of aviation emissions deposited into the upper Aviation and the global atmosphere. troposphere and lower atmosphere. It notes that about 2 percent of global Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special- anthropogenic carbon dioxide came from aviation (1992), equaling 13 percent reports/spm/av-en.pdf. of all transport emissions, and forecasts increased emissions in the future Last accessed October 3, 2011. as improvements in efficiency will be offset by a greater increase in passenger demand.

International Council on Human Rights Policy. 2008. Chapter III discusses litigation as a response to climate policy failures noting Climate change and human rights: a rough guide. the difficulties of pursuing this at the international versus the domestic level. Available at: http://www.ichrp.org/files/ It also notes that climate change presents many questions that do not sit well summaries/35/136_summary.pdf. with the current human rights framework. The report notes that even if lawsuits Last accessed October 3, 2011. fail, litigation can still be an effective strategy for purposes of public awareness.

Jackson, R. 2008. The Carbon Board is a proposed “Global Cap and Trade and Share” approach

The Carbon Board Scheme. that purports (1) to guarantee that CO2 emission targets will be met; (2) to be Available at: http://www.ross-jackson.com/ efficient (allowing trading of permissions among qualified corporations); (3) to rj/21987/46928/. be equitable, by distributing revenues equally to all world citizens, and; (4) to be Last accessed October 3, 2011. simple and transparent.

Keohane, R. and Victor, D.. 2011. The authors outline the functional, strategic, and organizational reasons why a The regime complex for climate change single, unified approach to a global climate regime has failed and argue that a The Harvard Project on International Climate 'regime complex', interlinking numerous regimes, may offer advantages in terms Agreements, Discussion Paper 10-33. of flexibility and adaptability. Such a complex needs to meet certain functional criteria that are not satisfied by today's institutional structure. The UNFCCC can continue to play an umbrella role, but for reasons of political practicality, there are benefits from working towards a loosely linked but effective regime complex for climate change.

Levi, M. and Michonski, K.. 2010. The authors discuss the potential role for existing multilateral and plurilateral Harnessing international institutions to address venues in governing climate change, noting that a wealth of climate-related climate change. Council on Foreign Relations. institutional capacity already exists, that existing energy and environment Available at: http://www.cfr.org/climate-change/ organizations will be instrumental in reaching a deal, but will not be prominent harnessing-international-institutions-address- players in the future, and that MDBs are the only existing institutions with climate-change/p21609. Last accessed October 3, the capacity to handle finance aspects of climate change. They also note 2011. that policymakers should anticipate conflicts between climate and existing organizations, for example, the WTO.

Mace, M. Mace discusses the post-2012 framework, including how principles of equity “International Treaties” in Schneider et al. should be addressed, what type of commitments should be taken, the role of (eds) 2009. technology transfer, and financing adaptation. Mace posits that strong top- Climate change science and policy Island Press. down governance is most suitable, given the urgency of the climate change problem, but notes that a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches are possible in implementing a comprehensive climate regime.

Mayer, W. 2008. Mayer proposes that a levy in the region of 5-10 percent be imposed on

Reduce and Invest: reduce the CO2 burden in the fossil fuel consumption globally. This market mechanism will disincentivize atmosphere and invest in a sustainable economy. consumption while simultaneously encouraging investment in research and Available at: http://www.usitawi.org/fileadmin/ development and the roll out of cleaner fuel sources to move the world to redaktor/projekte/reduce_invest/en_konzeptskizze. a low carbon pathway. The percentage levy can be adjusted to account for pdf. ambitiousness of mitigation target and the total sum of the finance that will be Last accessed October 3, 2011. required globally.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 15 KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Molina, M. et al. 2009. This paper discusses strategies to address short-lived non-CO2 greenhouse “Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the gases and particles, such as amending the Montreal Protocol and the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to promotion of policies to address black carbon.

complement cuts in CO2 emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. December, Volume 106, No. 49.

Oxfam. 2008. Oxfam charts the various human rights that are being impacted by climate Climate wrongs and human rights: putting people at change globally. The study puts forward a rights-based approach to designing the heart of climate change policy. and implementing mitigation and adaptation policies that allows for greater Available at: http://www.oxfam.org/policy/bp117- public participation by those individuals directly affected by climate change’s climate-wrongs-and-human-rights. negative impacts. This framework sees a role for developed countries, Last accessed October 3, 2011. developing countries, and private sector actors.

Rayner, S. 2010. Rayner proposes an international climate regime based on a bottom-up “How to eat an elephant: a bottom-up approach to structure, where climate change policies are made at the lowest level of climate policy”. governance structures with the capacity to enact them. He posits that national Climate Policy. 2010:10 and local policy design and implementation would lead to a shift in patterns of energy and land use which will result in mitigation globally, but that some level of coordination at the international may be necessary, for example in setting a global mitigation goal.

Saran, S. 2010. In the run-up to the COP-16 negotiations in Cancun, Saran explores fault “Irresistible forces and immovable objects: a debate lines in the UNFCCC negotiations and proposes ways of moving forward. on contemporary climate politics” He notes the opportunity that Cancun can provide to rebuild trust, and move Climate Policy. 10. forward on components that support developing countries, LDCs, SIDS, and Africa. He discusses the more fundamental, longer term problems that need to be addressed, including the requirement for a significant shift from fossil- fuel based economies to one where consumption patterns and lifestyles are sustainable, based on low-carbon energy generation.

Schwarte, C. and Byrne, R.. 2010. The paper discusses to what extent litigation under public international law International climate change litigation and the may help address climate change and possibly facilitate a positive and timely negotiation process. outcome within the UNFCCC negotiations. In doing this, it looks at substantive Working paper at the Foundation for International legal options based on existing public international legal theories and norms Environmental Law and Development (FIELD). and their relative procedural means for implementation.

The Access Initiative. 2011. The Access Initiative (TAI) presents the perspective of civil society organization What we want from Rio+20: civil society and what outcomes they are seeking from international environmental organizations worldwide voice their demands for negotiations, notably the Rio+20 summit in 2012. The top demands are environmental democracy. centered on access to information, public participation, and access to justice. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. In achieving these, a number of steps are seen as necessary, including the promotion of regional conventions granting rights to public participation, for example, vis-à-vis environmental impact assessments. These rights could also be enshrined and enforced by the creation of legal reforms for access, the creation of environmental databases, the creation of environmental courts, and citizen enforcement of environmental laws.

Tickell. 2007. Tickell proposes a global GHG cap-and-trade regime where permits to produce Kyoto 2: How to manage the global greenhouse GHGs are sold up to the cap by global auction subject to reserve and ceiling Zed Books, London. prices, GHG emissions are regulated ‘upstream' where flows are concentrated Available at: http://www.kyoto2.org/page0.html. and measureable. He proposes efficiency standards to be set for all energy Last accessed October 3, 2011. consuming sectors and the phasing out of the powerful industrial GHGs. Any funds raised at auction are invested in tackling both the causes and the consequences of climate change.

16 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

UNCEB Secretariat. 2008. The report outlines the role of various UN organizations in climate governance, Acting on climate change: the UN system delivering highlighting the role that can be played in fields of knowledge, scientific as one. assessment and warning systems, adaptation, capacity building, technology Available at: http://www.un.org/climatechange/ transfer, public awareness, and REDD. pdfs/Acting%20on%20Climate%20Change.pdf. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

UN. 2007 The report posits that climate change is the defining development issue of Human Development Report. 2007-2008. our generation, undermining efforts to combat poverty and disproportionately Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/ affecting the world’s poor—40 percent of the world population, or 2.6 billion hdr2007-2008/. people. To address this, the report recommends that, among other measures, Last accessed October 3, 2011. adaptation be placed at the heart of international cooperation, which itself needs to be strengthened.

UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human The report presents and discusses how observed and projected climate change Rights (OHCHR). 2009. impacts have implications for the enjoyment of rights and for state obligations Study on the relationship between climate change under international human rights law. It presents the impacts on specific rights, and human rights. specific groups, and security and conflict risks as well as human rights at Available at: http://www2.ohchr.org/english/issues/ national and international levels. It then suggests general principles for policy- climatechange/study.htm. making, drawing on human rights standards. It notes areas where further, more Last accessed October 3, 2011. detailed study is needed, and the role states can play to provide information on measures to assess and address vulnerabilities and impacts related to climate change.

United States National Security Strategy (US NSS). The focus of the 2010 United States National Security Strategy is the 2010. interconnected global problems that have arisen alongside globalization. These The White House, Washington, DC. include the risks of terrorism, nuclear attacks, and climate change. It notes that Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/ climate change increases the risk of encouraging regional insecurities that can default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy. impact on both US and international security. The study proposes that the US pdf. acts to perform a role of global leadership to confront these global challenges Last accessed October 3, 2011. to advance international peace and security.

Victor D. 2011. Victor argues that the immediate goal should be investment in adaptation Global Warming Gridlock, Creating More Effective (including geoengineering). The strategy for moving forward is based on Strategies for Protecting the Planet. who the parties are, what they are promising, and what will encourage them Cambridge University Press. to honor those promises. In achieving this Victor envisages a ‘bottom-up’ approach with national governments “bidding” to undertake commitments that are both feasible and in their interest (versus an overarching 2˚ C target, with commitments being imposed ‘top-down’). These bids may be contingent on other governments making equally ambitious bids, and ultimately lead to a convergence of policies. This will require a small club of large countries negotiating multi- or bi-lateral agreements, and therefore will likely be outside of UN process, as new institutional architecture is required to track bids and assess data and policy implementation.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 17 KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

WBGU. 2008. 1) A 2˚ C guard rail is adopted as legally binding in international law. (2)

Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach. For CO2 from fossil sources a global emission budget is adopted. (3) It is

German Advisory Council on Global Change subdivided into national CO2 budgets among all countries on an equal per- (WBGU). capita basis. (4) Each country has to produce a decarbonization road map. Available at: http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/ (5) An international emissions trading system helps to achieve the balance templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/ between the emissions paths of the various countries. (6) With regard to past

sondergutachten/sn2009/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf. CO2 emissions an additional financial compensation between north and south

Last accessed October 3, 2011 is aimed for. (7) CO2 from non-fossil sources, other relevant GHGs and further radiative forcing substances are subjected to separate regulations.

Weisbach, D. 2010 Weisbach examines the possibility of apportioning responsibility for climate Negligence, Strict Liability, and Responsibility for change using tort law principles. Traditional fault theories require more Climate Change consideration than the available data are ever likely to support. Strict liability Belfer Center, Harvard University. may serve as a 'one-time' claim for past wrongs, but even still has problems. Incentive-based approaches are preferable, for example, not giving benefits to Parties who increase emissions between now and an eventual treaty.

Winkler, H. and Beaumont, J. 2010. Winkler and Beaumont discuss the possibility of fragmentation of the “Fair and Effective Multilateralism in the post- international climate regime, and what this might mean for regime Copenhagen climate negotiations,” effectiveness. They posit that multilateralism is fundamental to ensuring Climate Policy, Vol. 10 (6). procedural equity, as enshrined in the UNFCCC. They note that a mix of processes will be needed to speed up the pace of decision-making, combining UN procedures with innovative ideas from other multilateral environmental agreements. They argue that the UNFCCC is the only legitimate forum for addressing climate change, and that a legally-binding outcome offers the best assurances of regime implementation and effectiveness.

World Bank. 2011. The report looks at the linkages between changing demographic patterns of Cities and Climate Change: an urgent agenda. increased urbanization and climate change, and outlines the opportunities that Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ cities have to address the ensuing problems. Addressing climate change will INTUWM/Resources/340232-1205330656272/ have coincidental benefits on other problems that affect city life, including air CitiesandClimateChange.pdf. quality and urban transport. It notes the opportunities for coordinated ambitious Last accessed October 3, 2011. action that can be taken by major cities globally, irrespective of their stage of economic development.

World Bank. 2008. The framework prepared by the World Bank articulates objectives, guiding Development and climate change: a strategic principles, and major initiatives to guide the World Bank Group’s (WBG) framework for the World Bank Group – Report to operational procedures to take on new development challenges posed by the Development Committee. climate change. It aims to help the WBG maintain effectiveness in supporting Available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ growth and poverty reduction while strengthening climate resilience for DEVCOMMINT/Documentation/21928837/ economies and communities. The framework’s operational focus is on DC2008-0009(E)ClimateChange.pdf. improving knowledge and capacity to help ensure benefits to developing Last accessed October 3, 2011. countries are robust in terms of future climate impacts.

WTO / UNEP. 2009. The report provides an overview of the key linkages between climate change Trade and climate change: WTO-UNEP Report. and trade, based on a review of literature and national policies. It analyzes Available at: http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/ options for mitigation and adaptation, and explores how economic aspects booksp_e/trade_climate_change_e.pdf. of these relate to trade policy, and discusses the role of the current trade Last accessed October 3, 2011. and environmental negotiations in promoting trade in climate mitigation technologies. The report also discusses impacts of climate change on international trade, owing to impacts on agricultural output and distorting current comparative advantages.

18 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 2: Options Outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition Beyond Existing Mitigation Commitments and Actions

Zhang. 2009. This paper discusses to what extent trade-related measures should be Multilateral Trade Measures in a Post-2012 Climate incorporated in a post-2012 regime. Zhang argues that such measures Change Regime?: What Can Be Taken from the (border tax adjustments, etc.) should initially be applied only among Annex I Montreal Protocol and the WTO? countries and that, in order to encourage developing countries to do more, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper 342. developed countries should focus on ‘carrots.’ ‘Sticks’ can be incorporated, but only if they are credible and realistic, and serve as a useful supplement to push developing countries to take comparable actions or adopt comparable policies and measures earlier than would otherwise have been the case. Zhang also notes that unrealistic border adjustment measures as exemplified in the Lieberman-Warner bill (taken as a proxy for any future US legislation), are counterproductive to reaching an agreement on comparable climate actions in the post-2012 climate negotiations.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 19 KEY ISSUE 3: Means for Sharing the Mitigation Effort Under the UNFCCC

Adve, N. and Engineer, M.. 2010. The authors analyze the proposal for a carbon budget put forward by Kanitkar “Equity and social justice in a finite carbon world,” et al. (2010) (see below) noting some of its positive contributions, including Economics and Political Weekly. October. 45:40 focusing on carbon stock instead of flow, which has positive impacts in terms of equity. However the authors note some problems with the model used, that they believe the model’s underlying assumptions are too generous and thus undermine the study’s objective. They also criticize that equity is not considered in an intra-state context.

Banuri, T. et al. 1995. The IPCC’s Second Assessment Report examined equity and social Equity and Social Considerations in Climate considerations of climate change and the sharing of mitigation efforts. It Change, IPCC Second Assessment Report. highlights a number of central tenets that arise, including procedural equity, Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate- consequential equity, and inter-temporal aspects of the problem (for example, changes-1995/ipcc-2nd-assessment/2nd- intergenerational equity). It notes that for any agreement on climate change to assessment-en.pdf. be effective, it must be regarded as legitimate; equity is an important element in Last accessed October 3, 2011. gaining legitimacy.

Baer, P. et al. 2009. 1) A “development threshold” is codified, defining a level of welfare below “The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework: which people are not expected to share the costs of the climate transition. Drawing Attention to Inequality within Nations in the (2) Each country’s aggre¬gate capacity is defined as the sum of all Global Climate Policy Debate,” individual income, excluding income below the threshold. (3) Each country’s Development and Climate. Volume 40, Issue 6. respon¬sibility is defined as its cumulative emissions since 1990, excluding emissions that correspond to consumption below the development threshold. (3) These measures of capacity and responsibility can be combined into a single indicator of obliga¬tion: the “Responsibility Capacity Index” (RCI). (4) The RCI could serve as the basis of a progressive global “climate tax” determining each nation’s obligatory financial contribution to a grand international fund which would support both mitigation and adapta¬tion, and/or as a basis to determine national reduc¬tions obligations as shares of the global mitigation requirement. (5) It is foreseen to be a legally binding regime.

Boyce, J. and Riddle, M. 2007. Boyce and Riddle examine the distributional effects of a ‘cap and dividend’ Cap and dividend: how to curb global warming policy if such were to be implemented in the United States. They posit the while protecting the incomes of American families, aim of any such policy would be to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions while Political Economy Research Institute, University of protecting middle and lower-middle income American households. They note Massachusetts. that any market-based method for reducing carbon dioxide emissions has a distortive effect by raising fossil fuel prices that can have a regressive impact on income distribution. They find that a cap and dividend program would address this effect, having a positive impact on the majority of household incomes from the redistribution of funds raised.

Brazil 1997. Brazil’s submission to the UNFCCC addresses the question of the relationship Submission by Government of Brazil to the between historical GHG emissions and their effect on global temperature. It UNFCCC. 28 May. proposes to assign relative responsibilities among Parties, based on historical Available at: http://unfccc.int/cop4/resource/ emissions, taking into account their respective contributions to climate change. docs/1997/agbm/misc01a3.htm It sets forth a differentiation criterion among Annex I Parties so as to align the Last accessed October 3, 2011. main burden on Parties with principal responsibility.

Caney, S. et al. (eds) 2010. In his chapter on Cosmopolitan Justice, Responsibility, and Global Climate Climate Ethics: Essential Readings. Change, Caney examines the “fairest way of dealing with the burdens created New York: Oxford University Press by global climate change”, looking at issues of current and historic responsibility in individualist and collectivist contexts.

20 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 3: Means for Sharing the Mitigation Effort Under the UNFCCC

Caney, S. (2006) Caney explores the moral implications of historic environmental injustices and “Environmental Degradation, Reparations, and the the moral implications of global climate change. He looks at varying accounts Moral Significance of History” of how to identify duty-bearers: the causal account and the beneficiary account. Journal of Social Philosophy. 37:3 He discusses flaws in both of these accounts that he feels prevent them from being of universal applicability in designing a regime to overcome global climate change. Caney also argues that it is possible to recognize the moral importance of past crimes without accepting the case for reparations.

Caney, S. 2001. The paper focuses on climate change as a compelling case for global and “International distributive justice”. intergenerational justice. Caney looks at issues of burden-sharing, dividing Political Studies. 49:5 approaches into two accounts. The causal account looks at issues of collective responsibility for climate change and common duty to pay reparations. The beneficiary account focuses on notions that those who have benefitted from climate change through industrial expansion should pay reparations. He concludes that the intricacies involved in both of these accounts make the attribution of responsibility to make reparations more problematic that is normally recognized.

Clapp, C. et al. 2009. Clapp et al. analyze indicators proposed to reflect comparability of effort and National and sectoral GHG mitigation potential: national circumstances with a view towards emission reductions, noting GHG a comparison across models. emissions per capita, GDP per capita, and GHG mitigation potential. Their OECD/IEA. study focuses on the latter to provide a comparative assessment across six key OECD economies, looking at a range of models, baselines, target years, and carbon prices. They find that policymakers would benefit from looking across a range of model results to help guide and inform the decision-making process, and to aid in the designing of national and sectoral mitigation strategies.

Dutt, G. 2010. This builds upon Dutt 2009 to analyze developments in the wake of the Equity in climate change. Copenhagen Accord. He synthesizes the Copenhagen pledges by all countries Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. to conclude that current pledges would result in carbon dioxide concentration of 775ppm, representing a 3.9˚ C temperature rise by the end of the century. He raises questions that remain unanswered as to the role of Kyoto Protocol mechanisms going forward, as well as to questions of long-term finance.

Dutt, G. 2009. Dutt proposes that advanced developing countries take on commitments to A climate agreement beyond 2012. limit future emission increases, based on the Contraction and Convergence Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. proposal. The development status could be determined by a metric such as GDP or the Human Development Index (HDI). There would be differentiation for countries that have achieved more emission-efficient development than others. Dutt proposes separate regulations for energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and for forestry, agriculture and fluorinated gases. Performance tracking would be accomplished by expert teams from other countries.

Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability The authors propose an international climate regime along the following lines: (FEASTA). 2008. (1) A guaranteed declining cap on GHGs is defined. (2) A corresponding Cap and Share: A Fair Way to Cut amount of Production Authorization Permit (PAP) quotas are emitted each year. Greenhouse Emissions. (3) PAPs are equally allocated to every adult on Earth. (4) Every adult can either sell (at the market price) or destroy their PAPs. (5) Fossil energy suppliers have to buy a certain amount of PAPs based on their production.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 21 KEY ISSUE 3: Means for Sharing the Mitigation Effort Under the UNFCCC

Global Commons Institute (GCI). 2007. This proposed climate architecture puts forward a full-term contraction budget Contraction and Convergence: climate justice for global emissions, consistent with stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of without the vengeance. GHGs at a level deemed safe by the UNFCCC. The budget is internationally Available at: http://www.gci.org.uk/. shared through a pre-distribution of entitlements with the final goal of achieving Last accessed October 3, 2011. equal per capita emissions rights on a given convergence date, with these entitlements being internationally tradable.

Gosseries, A. 2009. The paper explores how relevant the historical responsibility debate is in the Historical emissions and free-riding. context of allocating emission reduction obligations among countries. Gosseries Available at: http://mora.rente.nhh.no/projects/ argues that previous generations may not have been morally responsible EqualityExchange/Portals/0/articles/gosseries1. for the harms they caused, and that apportioning effort in terms of historic pdf. Last accessed October 3, 2011. responsibility would thus be inequitable.

Kanitkar, T. et al. 2010. The conference paper reflects a proposal by Kanitkar et al. that sets forth a Conference on Global Carbon Budgets and Equity model for burden-sharing for the climate regime that aims to achieve equitable in Climate Change. utilization and common responsibility among all states. The model incorporates Discussion paper, supplementary notes and “fair shares” for all states moving away from the current share of carbon space, summary report of the Tata Institute for Social taking into account emissions cuts for nations above their fair share and Science/Ministry of Environment and Forests, India. allowing growth in those countries currently below it. The proposal takes issues 28-29 June. of human well-being and intergenerational equity as central.

Karousakis, K. et al. 2008. The authors examine approaches to differentiation to inform policy-making for Differentiating countries in terms of mitigation a post-2012 climate change regime, exploring various indicators that could be commitments, actions, and support. used to differentiate countries’ national and international action on mitigation. OECD/IEA. 2008. They further explore how such indicators could be combined to create various country categories, associated with different levels of effort. The authors also discuss what might be considered nationally appropriate in terms of mitigation commitments, actions, and support, and an evolution of these as national circumstances change and evolve over time.

Mace, M. 2008. This paper highlights the key outcomes related to effort sharing sought by the “The Bali Road Map: Can it Deliver an Alliance of Small Island States in the international climate negotiations. Equitable Post-2012 Climate Agreement for Small Island States.” RECEIL. Vol 17, No. 2.

Mattoo, A. and Subramanian, A. 2010. This paper presents an analytical framework on equity and climate change, Equity in climate change: an analytical review, highlighting the consequences— in terms of future emissions allocations— World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. July. of different approaches to equity (progressive cuts, ability to pay, equal per capita emissions, historic responsibility). With the strong conflicts of interest that are present when trying to define equity, the authors propose that the focus of international cooperation be shifted to generating a low-carbon technology revolution.

Michaelowa, A. et al. This paper proposes a way to graduate Parties into taking on emissions targets, “Graduation and Deepening: An Ambitious as well as ways to increase absolute caps over time. Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario,” International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics. Volume 5, Number 1.

22 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 3: Means for Sharing the Mitigation Effort Under the UNFCCC

Neumayer, E. 2000. Neumayer defends the allocation of the right to emit GHGs in terms of equal “In Defense of Historic Accountability for per capita emission with historical accountability, which he argues gives every Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” human being an equal share of the global atmosphere, independent of place Ecological Economics. 33, 185-19. or time. He puts forward arguments for why there should be an international agreement allocating rights to emit, and separately argues to refute theories opposing historical responsibility.

O’Neill, B.C. and Oppenheimer, M. 2002. The authors propose several plausible interpretations of what "dangerous “Dangerous climate impacts and the Kyoto Protocol,” interference" with the global climate might mean with respect to particular Science. Vol. 296, June. environmental outcomes. They examine the consistency between the Kyoto Protocol and emissions changes over time that would avoid dangerous environmental outcomes.

Page, E. 2011. Page analyzes whether a network of market-based greenhouse gas trading “Cosmopolitanism, climate change and greenhouse mechanisms is consistent with a cosmopolitan response to climate change. He emissions trading”, discusses the problems in determining the precise level of market-intervention International Theory. 3:1 that should occur, noting that some measures of intervention will be more counter-productive than others in terms of environmental effectiveness. He also notes the criticisms raised by some commentators that view market-based mechanisms as crossing acceptable limits of governmental intervention into the value citizens place on the environment.

Page, E. 2008. This book presents a wide discussion of equitable concerns that arise with “Distributing the burdens of climate change,” regard to international climate negotiations and any future agreed regime. Page Environmental Politics. 17:4 outlines two approaches to burden-sharing, based first on contribution to the problem, and second on ability to pay, and discusses the various advantages, challenges, controversies, and complexities of each.

Page, E. 2006. Page looks at issues of burden-sharing rooted in various philosophical Climate change, justice and future generations. standpoints based on the ability to pay, contribution to the problem, beneficiary Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, England. pays, or a hybrid of these. He concludes that there is far more divergence than is often recognized and that is no single approach offers a balance between intellectual soundness and practical policy relevance. Page finds that the Global Development Rights proposal comes closest to capturing these two qualities.

Ramesh. 2010. This proposal suggests that the global carbon budget be divided on the basis of Statement of Mr. Jairam Ramesh, Minister of cumulative emissions per capita. Environment and Forests. 7th MEF Meeting, Rome, Italy.

Rive, N. et al. 2005. Rive et al. looks at the problems associated with basing GHG emission rights “Climate agreements based on responsibility for and mitigation effort entirely on historic responsibility. They note the limited global warming: Periodic updating, policy choices, data available dealing with past emissions across countries, concluding that this and regional costs,” might lead to policy distortions that overly burden developing countries in terms Global Environmental Change. 16:2, 2006 of the mitigation effort allocated to them.

Shue, H. 1999. Shue outlines various approaches to understanding fairness based upon “Global environment and international inequality,” varying theories of justice to conclude that no matter what theoretical International Affairs. 75(3), 531-45. background is used, the same conclusion is reached: the allocation of costs of protecting the environment and halting climate change should be principally borne by wealthy industrialized countries.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 23 KEY ISSUE 3: Means for Sharing the Mitigation Effort Under the UNFCCC

The Energy Resources Institute (TERI). 2009. This paper presents TERI’s proposal for dividing the mitigation effort based on Right to Sustainable Development: An Ethical fairness and equity principles and the promotion of sustainable development Approach to Climate Change. for all. Delhi.

WBGU. 2011. The report outlines a new ‘social contract’ to move the world from traditional World in transition: a social contract for fossil and nuclear energy production to a low-carbon, environmentally sustainability. German Advisory Council on Global sustainable mode. It puts forward three “transformation fields” that are Change (WBGU). proposed to enable a transition to climate-friendly energy production within Available at: http://www.wbgu.de/en/publications/ the scope of sustainable development. These fields include energy systems flagship-reports/flagship-report-2011/. (including transport), urban areas, and land-use systems (including agriculture, Last accessed October 3, 2011. forestry and deforestation).

WBGU. 2008. 1) A 2˚ C guard rail is adopted as legally binding in international law. (2)

Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach. For CO2 from fossil sources a global emission budget is adopted. (3) It is

sondergutachten/sn2009/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf. CO2 emissions, an additional financial compensation between north and south

Last accessed October 3, 2011. is aimed for. (7) CO2 from non-fossil sources, other relevant GHGs, and further radiative forcing substances are subjected to separate regulations.

24 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 4: The Role of Various Actors in Tracking Country Performance on Mitigation

Blechman, B. and Finlay, B.. Forthcoming. The authors analyze the efforts undertaken to regulate arms proliferation What climate control can learn from past efforts to since the existence of nuclear weapons. Efforts have ranged from unilateral limit nuclear dangers. national declarations, to formal agreements, to multinational treaties, and the The Stimson Center, Washington DC. Forthcoming. establishment of international organizations. They articulate potential lessons to be learned from weapons control efforts. One area of focus is the importance of verification, which they note is essential for publics to gain confidence in the process of international agreements. There is a substantial role for the private sector to play in this, from cooperation with industry, to encouraging "whistle blowers," and leveraging private individuals and NGOs. Important lessons that could apply to a climate change regime include that an ultimate goal be articulated, that a 'grand bargain' be struck even if it moves incrementally, that implementing entities be created and proceed even in the absence of key players, the importance of paying attention to verification, leveraging the private sector, and considering the use of radical unilateral actions.

Buchner, B. et al. 2011. The report analyzes aspects of financing for the climate regime, noting that Monitoring and Tracking Long-Term Finance to there is neither a universally-agreed definition of what sources are involved, nor Support Climate Action. an agreed basis for measurement or methodology for tracking of such finance. OECD. The authors highlight the relevant information that needs to be tracked in order to build a comprehensive MRV system for climate finance, and propose improvements to current reporting and tracking systems as well as new reporting approaches for a more robust and inclusive system of MRV.

Chayes, A. and Chayes, A. 1995. The authors find that in a changed world of multiple and multilateral The New Sovereignty: Compliance with International opportunities and threats, hyper-vigilant verification policies and procedures Regulatory Agreements. are out of place—the search for absolute assurance is illusory. Ultimately Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA. no system of verification, no matter how abundantly endowed, will be able to verify completely all of the activities subject to regulation. No matter how sophisticated the verification program, there will be uncertainties and disagreements about the state of information that is developed; therefore it is necessary to carefully consider transparency issues without placing too heavy a burden on the verification element.

DeFries, R. et al. 2007. The authors analyze technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation and “Earth observation systems for estimating estimating emissions, and note that implementation of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in emissions from deforestation requires effective, consistent, reproducible, and developing countries,” accurate deforestation monitoring systems. Key constraints for achieving Environmental Science Policy. 10:4. this include low international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standardized protocols for interpretation and analysis.

Ellis, J. et al. 2011. The authors note that the Cancun Agreements represent a step forward Frequent and Flexible Reporting Formats in Biennial in setting out procedures for reporting of the data and provide for more Update Reports. consistency and transparency in country reporting. They outline suggestions for OECD. the structure and content of biennial reports, including reporting formats. This is important to increase the comprehensiveness of the information provided, and enhance transparency to build trust, and improve consistency through standardization. For optimal consistency and transparency, the authors find that biennial reports should primarily focus on key information or information that has changed from previous reports, and that additional flexibility in terms of content should be given to developing countries to accommodate their capacity constraints.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 25 KEY ISSUE 4: The Role of Various Actors in Tracking Country Performance on Mitigation

European Union. 2010. Through this report, the EU reported that in 2010 it mobilized EUR2.2 bn as Fast start funding for developing countries: part of its EUR7.2 bn commitment of 2010-2012 to help developing countries 2010 progress report. implement immediate and urgent action to respond to climate change. These Brussels, Belgium. November. responses will include mitigation, adaptation and REDD+, and will increase synergies between economic development and climate resilient action.

Fransen, T. 2009. The paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of the ‘national Enhancing Today’s MRV framework to communications’ system within the UNFCCC in the context of the post-2012 meet tomorrow’s need: the role of national climate regime, considering the Bali Action Plan on provisions related to MRV. communications and inventories. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.

Ghosh, A. and Woods, N. 2010. Ghosh and Woods outline the key points of their paper to state that the “Developing Country Concerns about Climate history of North-South mistrust pervades the climate negotiations, that stable Finance Proposals: Priorities, Trust, and the Credible and secure finance is essential, that effective monitoring, verification, and Donor Problem” in Richard B. Stewart, Benedict compliance mechanisms are needed for both emission reductions as well as Kingsbury, and Bryce Rudyk, Climate Finance: finance and technology transfers, and that trusted institutions are required (for Regulatory and Funding Strategies for Climate which the Bretton Woods institutions may not be the answer). Change and Global Development; New York University Abu Dhabi Institute.

Haas, P. 2008. Haas posits that the demanding goals from Bali (adaptation funding, etc) are “Climate change governance after Bali”, far beyond the less demanding targets of Kyoto, which have not been achieved. Global Environmental Politics 8:3, 2008. He believes that focusing on a more demanding global aspiration seems unlikely to succeed and suggests that the best course of action is to delay hard bargaining on a post-KP agreement to build stronger foundations for a better treaty for achieving short term policy gains.

India Network for Climate Change Assessment The India Network for Climate Change Assessment outlines in detail India’s (INCAA). 2010. GHG emissions for 2007, using a sectoral breakdown. Sectors examined India Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007. include energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and land use, land use change, and Minister of Environment and Forests, forestry sectors. Government of India. May.

Levin, K. et al. 2010. The authors provide recommendations and options for harmonizing accounting Remedying Discord in the Accord: rules for developed country, or Annex I, emissions reduction pledges for a Accounting Rules for Annex I Pledges in a Post- post-2012 climate policy under discussion in the UN Framework Convention 2012 Climate Agreement. on Climate Change‘s (UNFCCC) Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Working paper at the World Resources Institute, Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) negotiations track. Washington, D.C. Available at: http://www.wri.org/publication/ remedying-discord-in-the-accord .

Levin, K. et al. 2009. The authors focus on non-state market-driven global governance in the “Can non-state certification systems bolster environmental regime. These strategies embrace market approaches built state-centered efforts to promote sustainable around incentives and price mechanisms. Several forms of non-state authority development through the clean development have emerged, including corporate social responsibility, providing information mechanism?” through labeling, and self-reporting. They look at relationships between public 44 Wake Forest L. Rev. 777. and private authority and use the Gold Standard offset certification to explore the symbiosis between these two authorities. They note that government policy can be advanced through the use of non-state market mechanisms.

26 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 4: The Role of Various Actors in Tracking Country Performance on Mitigation

McFaul, L. 2006. The paper outlines the evolution and role of verification and compliance within Developing the climate regime: the UNFCCC and highlights areas related to capacity-building and climate the role of verification. system governance where focus should be made in investing in an effective UK Verification, Research and Training Information global regime. Centre (VERTIC).

Nash, D. et al. 2009. The paper focuses on issues of MRV that will be of material interest to national Building trust and cooperation in a North-South environmental regulators as the climate change negotiations evolve. The role climate change compact: what role for regulators? of national regulatory authorities in MRV has not received major attention in Global Climate Network Briefing Paper. current literature, and this paper sets out how domestic regulators can help Available at: http://www.globalclimatenetwork.info/ build consensus in the current negotiations by leading an MRV from the bottom ecomm/files/buildingtrust.pdf. up. National work on that front can also help engender trust and cooperation on Last accessed October 3, 2011. an international level in a post-2012 global climate regime.

National Research Council. 2007. The National Research Council undertook an in-depth study of the necessity Earth science and applications from space: national of using space-based monitoring applications to aid in a variety of policy imperatives for the next decade and beyond. arenas, including climate change policy. It notes some key questions that can The National Academies Press, Washington DC. be answered by using such technology, including how rapidly ice sheets are Available at: http://www.nap.edu/catalog. melting, what impacts might result over time, or whether droughts are predicted php?record_id=11820. to become more widespread regionally. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

Niederberger, A. and Kimble, M.. 2011. The authors posit that expanding the MRV regime to include mitigation actions MRV under the UN Climate Regime – Paper Tiger is an opportunity to support, rather than burden, developing countries in their or Catalyst for Continual Improvement? efforts to improve their climate performance over time, and that it is consistent Available at: http://www.policy-solutions.com/ with sustainable development. One pragmatic approach is to ensure that Publications%20pdf/Arquit%20&%20Kimble%20 national actions are measurable, reportable, and verifiable, namely adopting a GHG2010-009.pdf. certification scheme for National Climate Management Systems (which would Last accessed October 3, 2011. require countries to establish a climate policy, set national goals and timetables, secure resources to implement related national actions, and track their progress over time).

Tirpak, D. et al. 2010. The working paper discusses different ways to improve the current system for Guidelines for Reporting Information on Public reporting and compiling information on public financing for climate change to Climate Finance. help Parties to the UNFCCC develop robust reporting processes for climate Working Paper. World Resources Institute. finance. Among other measures, it urges Parties to consider implementing a Washington DC. more robust data review process and recommends that Parties could make significant improvements by adopting a standardized financial reporting format, but notes that this will take time to implement.

UNEP. 2010. This paper discusses how stronger accounting rules on land use, land-use The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen change, and forestry (LULUCF), surplus emissions units, and double counting Accord Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming of emission reductions could help close the gap between current emissions to 2 or 1.5°C? trajectories and those consistent with temperature limits. Available at: http://www.unep.org/publications/ ebooks/emissionsgapreport/. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

Victor, D. et al. (eds). 1998. Authors look at problems of implementation of multilateral environmental Implementation and Effectiveness of International agreements, focusing on how commitments are translated into practice. In Environmental Agreements. examining this, they look at systems for implementation review (SIRs)— the MIT Press, Cambridge MA. 1998. institutions through which parties share information, review performance, and deal with noncompliance. While these operate at the international level, implementation of individual measures takes place at the national level. Thus the authors focus their comparisons here.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 27 KEY ISSUE 5: The Legal Form of a Future Climate Agreement

Australia / Norway (2011) The joint submission by Australia and Norway puts forward the Parties’ Submission under the Cancun Agreements: positions regarding what should be achieved at COP-17 in Durban (2011). Enhanced action on mitigation Submission to the They propose that a mitigation outcome at Durban should build on progress UNFCCC, September 2011. made at COP-16 and ultimately establish an ambitious and legally-binding Available at: http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/ mitigation framework. Necessary elements for accomplishing this are listed, ad_hoc_working_groups/lca/application/pdf/ including a formalized way to capture Parties’ commitments and actions, clear australia_norway_mitigation_submission.pdf and transparent accounting rules for mitigation, including accounting for market mechanisms and rules to avoid double-counting, and launching a process to negotiate a new treaty under the Convention to be finalized in 2015. They also propose a periodic process for scaling up mitigation ambition over time.

Bernstein, J. 2010. APRODEV issued a call to Heads of Delegations at COP-16 to ensure that Enable the Race to the Top APRODEV the Kyoto Protocol is continued by guaranteeing a second commitment period. Communique to Heads of Delegation. COP-16 and APRODEV notes that the Protocol may have many flaws, but that without CMP-6, Cancun, Mexico. December. an internationally agreed, legally-binding treaty, the likelihood of successfully Available at: http://www.aprodev.eu/files/climate_ overcoming global climate change is very small. They also called on Heads change/UNFCCC/20101125_aprodev_legal_ of Delegations to agree to a set of comprehensive decisions to enhance the communique.pdf implementation of the UNFCCC, to honor commitments under the Bali Action Plan, and to implement mitigation targets for Annex I Parties not party to the Kyoto Protocol.

Bodansky, D. and Diringer, E. 2010. The authors analyze how international regimes have a tendency to evolve The Evolution of Multilateral Regimes: Implications slowly over time into legally binding agreements. They note that this might for Climate Change. also be the case for the climate regime, and outline the advantages that such Pew Center Global Climate Change. December. an evolutionary process can have, leading eventually to a more effective and robust regime, having undergone processes of institutional learning and trust building among Parties.

Cao, J. 2010. The paper proposes a top-down, burden-sharing rule designed to produce a Beyond Copenhagen: Reconciling international fair distribution of burdens across countries while giving priority to economic fairness, economic development and development and achieving emission reductions consistent with the 2˚C climate protection. guardrail. The paper sets out design elements of a regime that are important, Belfer Center, Harvard University especially form a developing country perspective.

Cottier, T. (forthcoming). Cottier analyzes the gradual evolution and developments in the international Confidence-building for Global Challenges: economic regime to highlight possible lessons for climate change. He notes The Experience of International Economic Law that typical incentives (reciprocity) in economic regimes do not work for climate and Relations. change, leading to the free-riding problem. Cottier concludes that a package World Trade Institute, University of Bern, deal involving gradual consensus building in concentric circles, with graduation Switzerland. Forthcoming. and open ended negotiations and the agreement on a dispute settlement mechanism offers the best chances for a comprehensive climate regime. He finds that top-down regimes, where achieved, face problems of verification and implementation.

Foundation for International Environmental Law and This briefing note sets out the proposals that have been made by Parties for Development (FIELD). 2011. the eventual legal form that a global climate agreement might take. Briefing note on the legal form of a new climate change agreement.

28 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES KEY ISSUE 5: The Legal Form of a Future Climate Agreement

Keohane, R. and Victor, D. 2011. The authors outline the functional, strategic and organizational reasons why a “The regime complex for climate change,” single, unified approach to a global climate regime has failed and argue that a Perspectives on Politics. 9:1, March. 'regime complex', interlinking numerous regimes, may offer advantages in terms of flexibility and adaptability. Such a complex needs to meet certain functional criteria that are not satisfied by today's institutional structure. The UNFCCC can continue to play an umbrella role, but for reasons of political practicality, there are benefits from working towards a loosely linked but effective regime complex for climate change.

Leal-Arcas, R. 2011. Leal-Arcas argues for a better (and fairer) way to tackle climate change by “Alternative architecture for climate change: bringing together major emitters, irrespective of GDP, with responsibility for major economies,” historic, current, and future emissions. He notes a number of key questions European Journal of Legal Studies. 4:1. for the future climate regime relating to pledges, financing, technology, complementary, and supporting processes and what role regional and subnational agreements can play. He posits that multilateralism is often an evolutionary process, but that the ultimate goal for climate negotiations should be a legally-binding agreement.

Rajamani, L. 2011. The author outlines the possible legal forms any international agreement The Cancun Agreements: reading the text, subtext might take, highlighting what a successful outcome should include. Elements and tea leaves. include that an agreement be legally binding, and engage all developed Available at: http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/ countries while creating conditions to engage developing countries, especially wp-content/uploads/2011/05/LRajamani- rapidly growing ones. Seminar_140611.pdf. Last accessed October 3, 2011.

Rajamani, L. 2009. The author points out that the Cancun Agreement, like Copenhagen, leaves “Addressing the ‘Post-Kyoto’ stress disorder: fundamental differences between Parties unresolved. These include the future reflections on the emerging legal architecture of the Kyoto Protocol and differentiation on legal form and architecture. Many of the climate regime,” countries favor a legally binding agreement, but its architecture and relationship International Comparative Law Quarterly, to the Kyoto Protocol remain unclear. The author notes that the opening up of Vol. 58, October. consensus decision-making as happened at Cancun may create the conditions necessary to resolve procedural issues that have impeded the evolution of the regime to date.

Victor, D. et al (eds). 1998. The authors look at problems of implementation of multilateral environmental The implementation and effectiveness of agreements, focusing on how commitments are translated into practice. In international environmental commitments: examining this, they look at systems for implementation review (SIRs)—the theory and practice. institutions through which parties share information, review performance, MIT Press, MA. and deal with noncompliance. While these operate at the international level, implementation of individual measures takes place at the national level, and are thus domestically binding, although they may not be internationally.

Victor, D. 2011. Victor argues that the immediate goal should be investment in adaptation Global Warming Gridlock, Creating More Effective (including geoengineering). The strategy for moving forward is based on: Strategies for Protecting the Planet. who the parties are, what they are promising, and what will encourage them to honor those promises. In achieving this Victor envisages a ‘bottom-up’ approach with national governments “bidding” to undertake commitments that are both feasible and in their interest (versus an overarching 2˚ C target, with commitments being imposed ‘top-down’). These bids may be contingent on other governments making equally ambitious bids, and ultimately lead to convergence of policies. This will require a small club of large countries negotiating multi- or bi-lateral agreements, and therefore will likely be outside of UN process; new institutional architecture is required to track bids and assess data and policy implementation.

BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES 29 KEY ISSUE 5: The Legal Form of a Future Climate Agreement

WBGU. 2008. 1) A 2˚C guard rail is adopted as legally binding in international law. (2) For CO2 Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach. from fossil sources a global emission budget is adopted. (3) It is subdivided

German Advisory Council on Global Change into national CO2 budgets among all countries on an equal per-capita basis. (4) (WBGU). Each country has to produce a decarbonization road map. (5) An international emissions trading system helps to achieve the balance between the emissions

paths of the various countries. (6) With regard to past CO2 emissions an additional financial compensation between north and south is aimed for. (7)

CO2 from non-fossil sources, other relevant GHGs and further radiative forcing substances are subjected to separate regulations.

Werksman, J. 2010. Werksman distils legal character into four components: the legal form of the “Legal Symmetry and Legal Differentiation under a agreement; the legal effect of commitments; the specific and prescriptive Future Deal on Climate Change,” nature of commitments; and the institutions, procedures and mechanisms Climate Policy, Vol. 10 (6). designed to hold parties accountable for those commitments. He presents the debate between developed and developing countries within the UNFCCC as one between legal symmetry and differentiation. In conclusion, Werksman notes that a relatively high standard on three of the four components of legal character might be agreed upon in the shorter term within the UNFCCC, and proposes that the fourth – the adoption of legally-binding commitments through a new protocol or instrument – could remain a medium-term goal for negotiators, positing that it may be prudent to strengthen other aspects of the UNFCCC before formalizing new commitments.

Werksman, J. 2010. Werksman analyzes the debate within the UNFCCC as to legal form and Law and Disorder: Will the Issue of Legal Character studies UNFCCC Party stances regarding the legal nature of a future climate Make or Break a Global Deal on Climate? change regime. He looks at what form an agreement, Party commitments, or German Marshall Fund of the United States. institutions and procedures might take and presents options to overcome the stalemate that prevents meaningful progress in the negotiations. Werksman proposes either abandoning a persistence on legally-binding to pursue a system of pledge and review, or alternatively for Parties to reinvest their energy in strengthening aspects of the legal character of the climate change regime that are already within the Framework Convention’s mandate.

Werksman, J. and Herbertson, K. 2010. The authors discuss questions relating to the legal nature of the future climate “The aftermath of Copenhagen: does international change regime. These include how to understand the legal character of a law have a role to play in a global response to multilateral environmental agreement (MEA), what happens in the case of climate change?” breach by a Party, and what value legally-binding MEAs have when there are Maryland Journal of International Law. weak enforcement procedures. They conclude that lessons from other MEAs imply that binding commitments backed by a robust review procedure are generally more effective, and that in most cases, international penalties for failure to comply with commitments are unspecified such that there is a low risk of parties being found in non-compliance.

Winkler, H. and Beaumont, J. 2010. Winkler and Beaumont discuss the possibility of fragmentation of the “Fair and Effective Multilateralism in the international climate regime, and what this might mean for regime post-Copenhagen climate negotiations,” effectiveness. They posit that multilateralism is fundamental to ensuring Climate Policy. Vol. 10 (6). procedural equity, as enshrined in the UNFCCC. They note that a mix of processes will be needed to speed up the pace of decision-making, combining UN procedures with innovative ideas from other multilateral environmental agreements. They argue that the UNFCCC is the only legitimate forum for addressing climate change, and that a legally-binding outcome offers the best assurances of regime implementation and effectiveness.

30 BUILDING THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME: SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES

ISBN: 978-92-807-3224-5 Job No: DTI/1465/NA