DOCSLIB.ORG

2021년 자동차 산업 전망 Breaking Through the Ceiling 자동차/부품/타이어 장문수 3787-2639 [email protected]

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
2021년 자동차 산업 전망 Breaking Through the Ceiling 자동차/부품/타이어 장문수 3787-2639 Joseph@Hmsec.Com Research Color Series #16 2021년 자동차 산업 전망 Breaking through the Ceiling 자동차/부품/타이어 장문수 3787-2639 [email protected] 조준우 3787-2570 [email protected] Contents Executive Summary 3 2021년 자동차 수요 전망 7 2021년 자동차 경쟁환경 분석 29 2021년 자동차 투자 전략 35 기업분석 64 2 Chapter 0. Executive Summary 3 Executive Summary 1. 2021년 자동차 산업 전망: COVID-19 영향에서 완만한 회복세. 기저효과로 볼륨 반등하나 2019년 수준 수요는 2023년이후회복전망 - 수요 전망: COVID-19 영향에서 완만한 회복세. 기저효과로 수요 반등하나 2019년 수준 수요는 2023년 이후 회복 전망 1) 미국, 유럽 중심 수요 회복세 뚜렷: 감소폭 컸던 미국, 유럽 등 선진시장과 브라질, 러시아 등 신흥시장 기저효과 大 전망 2) 유럽친환경차성장및업체간차별화: 주요 OEM 신차 공급 확대로 경쟁이 심화되나 COVID-19에도 xEV 전략을 적극 대응한 업체의 두각은 지속 전망 - 경영 환경: 2020과 마찬가지로 Q 보다는 P와 C의 개선에 주력. 선택과 집중 전략 지속되며 업체간 차별화 뚜렷 1) 선택과 집중: COVID-19 국면에서 구조조정과 신차/미래전략 적극 대응한 업체 두각. 유동성 보유사의 M&A, 투자 확대 2) only the strong survive: (공급) 공급 과잉 완화, (수요) 신차 집중된 점유율 상승 현상 지속 제한된 수요 상황 속 경쟁사간 격차 심화 - 전망: 국내 자동차, 신흥 시장의 회복에 편승하며 주요국 신차 효과로 인한 점유율 상승 추세 지속 전망 1) 긍정 요인: 인도, 브라질, 러시아 등 이머징 시장의 수요 회복, 미국 신차 Pipeline 긍정적, 유럽 xEV 전용 플랫폼 대응 업체의 옥석 가리기에서 두각 기대 2) 부정 요인: 달러 약세(원화 강세), COVID-19 재확산세로 인한 추가 경기 후퇴는 위험 요인 2. 섹터 전략: 완성차/대형주/친환경차 관련 부품주로 압축 전략이 유효. 현대차/기아차/현대모비스/한온시스템 추천 - 근거: ’21년 투자포인트는 제한된 수요 회복 속 ‘P 상승 지속’과 ‘C 하락’, ‘EV 성장’. 믹스 개선의 직접적 효과 기대되는 완성차/대형주 중심의 압축 유효 수요 회복 기대되나 급격한 수요 증가는 친환경차 등 제한된 segments에서 나타날 전망. 이에 물량 증가에 따른 레버리지 큰 부품사로 낙수효과는제한적 단, 유럽과 중국, 바이든 대통령 당선자 취임 후 그린뉴딜 시행 기대로 미국까지 xEV 글로벌 수요 확대에 기여할 것으로 전망함에 따라 관련 부품주 관심 - Top-picks: 1) 현대차[BUY/TP 250,000원]: 제네시스, RV 라인업 완성으로 믹스 개선과 점유율 상승 동시 기대. 금융의 레버리지 효과, xEV 기술 기반 사업 확대 기대 2) 기아차[BUY/TP 72,000원]: 주요 볼륨 신차가 성공적으로 글로벌 확대 출시되며 현대차와 시차를 두고 믹스/손익 개선 향상 전망. 강한 이익 모멘텀 전망 3) 현대모비스[BUY/TP 350,000원]: 현대차그룹 친환경 기술 대응 핵심 계열사로 e-GMP 신차 출시 국면에서 높은 매출 성장 기대. Valuation Call! 4) 한온시스템[BUY/TP 17,000원]: 유럽과 중국에 이어 미국까지 가세할 친환경차 전쟁의 서막을 승리로 장식. xEV 품질 향상의 핵심 기여하는 공조 최강자 4 2021년 자동차 투자 전략 2021년 자동차 투자 매력도 점검 - 경영 환경: 2020과 마찬가지로 Q 보다는 P와 C의 개선에 주력. 선택과 집중 전략 지속되며 업체간 차별화 뚜렷 > 선택과 집중: COVID-19 국면에서 구조조정과 신차/미래전략 적극 대응한 업체 두각. 유동성 보유사의 M&A, 투자 확대 > only the strong survive: (공급) 공급 과잉 완화, (수요) 신차 집중된 점유율 상승 현상 지속 제한된 수요 상황 속 경쟁사간 격차 심화 - 1) 이익구조: ‘21년 Q의 기저효과 기대. 단, 신차 중심의 경쟁 우위 기대 vs. ‘20년에 이어 2021년에도 P 상승, C 하락에 따른 이익 개선 스토리 지속 - 2) 경쟁환경: 2020년 내수 믹스 개선, 볼륨 증가 + 미국 점유율 상승 2021년 미국 믹스 추가 개선 + 유럽 EV 지배력 확대 - 3) 위험요인: 원화 강세 속도와 레벨(달러, 유로 및 엔)에 따른 수출 채산성 변동, COVID-19 재확산 2020년-2021년 달라진 경영환경 2020년 2021년 경제상황 (- -) COVID-19로 경기 후퇴 (+) COVID-19 영향 벗어나며 완만한 회복세 거시환경 환율 (+) 우호적 (달러 강세, 원화 약세) (- -) 비우호적 (달러 약세) Driver: 동아시아(한국, 중국 등) 및 신흥국 시차 두고 회복세 Driver: 신흥국 기저효과에도 실질 기여는 미국, 유럽, 중국이 선도 지역별 (·) 선진: 2H20 이후 미국, 유럽 등 선진시장 위주 회복 (++) 선진: 미국, 유럽 중심의 견조한 시장 회복 흐름 기대 (-) 신흥: COVID-19 영향 진정세 지연으로 회복 지연 (+) 신흥: 기저효과로 회복 속도는 향후 2년간 시장보다 높을 것 경쟁환경 (+) 경쟁 완화: 재무 구조 악화로 투자 위축, 신차 연기 (·) 경쟁 심화: 선택과 집중. 업체간 격차 확대 - (공급) 주요 지역 거리두기로 공급 차질. 회복 국면에서 재고 소진 - (공급) 구조 조정으로 과잉 완화 경쟁강도 - (수요) GM 등 일부 브랜드 신차 연기 영향 - (수요) 신차 집중된 브랜드의 점유율 상승 현상 지속 - (투자) 미국, 유럽계 업체의 유동성 악화로 투자 위축 - (경영환경) 유동성 보유사 M&A, 투자 ↑ 경쟁사와 격차 확대 P(가격) (+) 내수/선진국(지역), 국내 SUV/고급(믹스), 편의(옵션)중심 호조 (+) 글로벌 신차 확대(믹스, 인센), 미국(SUV/고급)/유럽(xEV)개선 지속 한국 (·) COVID-19 영향에도 경쟁사 대비 선방 (+) COVID-19 영향 완화되며 기저효과로 볼륨 회복 자동차 Q(볼륨) - (내수) 개소세 인하 효과와 신차 확대로 볼륨, 믹스 개선 - (미국) 신차에 수요 집중되며 인센티브 하락, 믹스 개선 동시 견인 전망 이익 구조 - (미국) 신차 호조로 인센티브 하락, 점유율 상승 - (유럽) xEV 확대로 인한 초기 시장 선점 여부 주목 C(비용) (+) 내수 믹스 개선으로 원가율 향상. 3세대 플랫폼 도입 초기 (++) 글로벌 믹스 개선, 가동률 회복, 플랫폼 확대로 추가 향상 자료: 현대차증권 5 2021년 자동차 투자 전략 2021년 투자 전략: 완성차/대형주/친환경차 관련 부품주로 압축 전략이 유효. 현대차/기아차/현대모비스/한온시스템 추천 - 근거: ’21년 투자포인트는 제한된 수요 회복 속 ‘P 상승 지속’과 ‘C 하락’, ‘EV 성장’. 믹스 개선의 직접적 효과 기대되는 완성차/대형주 중심의 압축 유효 - 1) P/C > Q: 수요 회복 기대되나 급격한 수요 증가는 친환경차 등 제한된 segment에서 나타날 전망. 물량 증가에 따른 레버리지 큰 부품사로 낙수효과 제한적 - 2) xEV Play: 유럽향 규제 강화로 친환경차 수요 증가 전망. 바이든 대통령 당선자의 그린 뉴딜 정책 수혜로 미국 xEV 확대 기대감 (핵심역량 보유 여부) - Top-picks: 1) 현대차[BUY/TP 250,000원], 2) 기아차[BUY/TP 72,000원], 3) 현대모비스[BUY/TP 350,000원], 4) 한온시스템[BUY/TP 17,000원] 2020년-2021년 한국 자동차 산업 투자 매력도 점검 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20E 2021E 내용 환율 ★★★ ★★★ ☆★★ ☆☆★ ☆☆☆ 달러 약세 영향으로 수출 채산성 악화. 원/엔 환율은 상대적 방어 가격 인센티브 ☆★★ ☆★★ ☆★★ ☆★★ ★★★ 주요 볼륨 신차 확대 출시로 추가 인센티브 하락 기대 (P) 제품믹스 ★★★ ★★★ ☆★★ ☆★★ ☆★★ 현대 고급/RV 및 기아 볼륨 신차 출시로 믹스 개선 추가 기대 지역믹스 ★★★ ★★★ ☆★★ ☆★★ ☆★★ 韓 역기저 효과는 부정적이나, 美, 유럽 등 볼륨 회복으로 충분히 만회 시장 수요 ☆☆★ ☆☆☆ ☆★★ ☆★★ ★★★ COVID-19 기저효과로 미국, 유럽, 이머징 등 수요 회복 가파를 전망 물량 M/S 확대 ☆★★ ☆★★ ☆★★ ★★★ ★★★ 글로벌 경쟁사 신차 Pipeline 비교 시 유리, M/S 확대 지속 전망 (Q) 볼륨 신차 ★★★ ☆★★ ☆☆★ ★★★ ☆★★ 아반떼, 투싼, 쏘렌토, 스포티지 등 볼륨 신차의 글로벌 확대 출시 RV 비중 ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ 투싼, GV70, 아이오닉5 / 카니발, 스포티지. CV 등 RV 중심 신차 확대 가동률 ☆☆★ ☆☆☆ ☆★★ ☆★★ ★★★ 시장 수요 회복과 볼륨 신차 글로벌 확대 출시로 볼륨 회복 속도 탄력적 비용 고정비 ☆☆★ ☆☆☆ ★★★ ★★★ ★★★ 플랫폼 확대 적용에 따른 원가 절감 효과 지속 확대 기대 (~2023년) (C) 일회성비용 - - *품질비용 - ★★★ 2020년 3분기 대규모 일회성 품질비용에 대한 기저효과 ☆☆★ 영업이익 ☆★★ ☆★★ ★★★ ★★★ 매출액 시장 기대 상향 및 수익성 개선이 동시 진행 기대 ★★★* 주: 전년동기비 부정적 ☆☆☆ ↔ 긍정적 ★★★ / 주 * : 3Q20 품질비용 제외시 영업이익 기대 큰 폭 상회 자료: 현대차증권 6 Chapter 1. 2021년 자동차 수요 전망 7 2021-2022년 자동차 수요 전망 글로벌 자동차 수요는 2021년 10.9% 증가한 8,402만대, 2022년 6.6% 증가한 8,961만대 전망 - ‘20년 수요는 7,577만대를 기록, 전년비 -16.2% 감소 전망: COVID-19로 선진국, 신흥국 모두 동반 부진하며 3년 연속 수요 감소 기록. 韓, 中 등 동아시아 중심 방역 강화와 부양책으로 수요 부진 압력을 방어. 경기 중단 등 부진 장기화로 EU, 美, 日 등 선진시장과 확진자 안정세 더딘 印, 브라질 등 수요 부진 - ‘21년 수요는 8,402만대를 기록, 전년비 10.9% 증가 전망: COVID-19 영향에서 안정화 되며 기저효과로 빠른 회복세를 기록할 전망. 유럽, 미국 등 주요국의 기 저효과와 내수 부양에 따른 중국 수요가 강하게 회복되며 글로벌 시장 수요를 견인할 전망. 2019년 수요의 93.0% 수준 달성 전망 - ’22년 수요는 8,961만대를 기록, 전년비 6.6% 증가 전망: 기저효과로 종료로 성장률은 둔화. 이머징 중심의 높은 수요 증가세 기대. 2019년 수요의 99.1% 수준 달성 전망 2021-2022년 자동차 수요 전망 (만대) (% yoy) 글로벌 수요 (만대, 좌) 증가율 (% yoy, 우) 10,000 15 9,519 9,446 10.9 10 9,500 9,304 9,038 6.6 4.4 8,961 5 9,000 2.3 0 -0.8 8,402 8,500 -4.3 -5 8,000 -10 7,577 7,500 -15 -16.2 7,000 -20 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 자료: LMC(3Q20), GBIC, 현대차증권 8 2021-2022년 자동차 수요 전망 글로벌 자동차 수요는 2021년 10.9% 증가한 8,402만대, 2022년 6.6% 증가한 8,961만대 전망 - 글로벌 (8,402만대, +10.9%): 기저효과로 빠른 회복 전망. 유럽, 미국 등 주요국의 기저효과와 내수 부양에 따른 중국의 강한 수요 회복이 견인할 전망 - 중국 (2,517만대, +5.9%): 2H20 경기 회복과 부양책으로 2021년 낮은 기저효과. 기저효과와 내수 확대로 경기 회복되며 소비심리 정상화 - 미국 (1,543만대, +8.5%): 판매 급감에 따른 기저효과와 Pent-up 수요로 회복 전망 - 유럽 (1,554만대, +15.4%): EU 재정 공조 통한 완만한 경기 회복으로 누적 대기수요와 BEV 판매 확대 기대 - 한국 (176만대, -4.3%): 개소세 인하 종료와 주요 볼륨 신차효과 약화되며 향후 2년 수요는 통상 수준인 170만대 중반대로 수렴 2018-2022년 지역별 자동차 수요 전망 자동차 판매 (만대) 비중(%) 증가율(%) 국가 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 전세계 9,446 9,038 7,577 8,402 8,961 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (0.8) (4.3) (16.2) 10.9 6.6 중국 2,775 2,553 2,377 2,517 2,674 29.4 28.2 31.4 30.0 29.8 (3.0) (8.0) (6.9) 5.9 6.3 미국 1,723 1,699 1,422 1,543 1,626 18.2 18.8 18.8 18.4 18.2 0.4 (1.4) (16.3) 8.5 5.4 유럽 1,776 1,803 1,347 1,554 1,635 18.8 19.9 17.8 18.5 18.2 0.3 1.5 (25.3) 15.4 5.2 일본 520 513 431 470 484 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.4 0.7 (1.4) (15.9) 9.0 3.0 인도 400 352 244 289 303 4.2 3.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 8.2 (12.0) (30.8) 18.7 4.8 브라질 248 267 195 248 268 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.0 13.8 7.6 (26.8) 26.6 8.2 러시아 180 176 145 163 175 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 12.8 (2.3) (17.6) 12.4 7.4 한국 182 179 184 176 176 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.1 (1.6) 2.8 (4.3) 0.0 기타 1,641 1,496 1,232 1,443 1,619 17.4 16.5 16.3 17.2 18.1 (5.1) (8.8) (17.7) 17.2 12.2 Big 3 계 6,274 6,055 5,146 5,613 5,936 66.4 67.0 67.9 66.8 66.2 (1.1) (3.5) (15.0) 9.1 5.7 BRICs 계 3,603 3,348 2,961 3,216 3,420 38.1 37.0 39.1 38.3 38.2 (0.1) (7.1) (11.6) 8.6 6.3 자료: LMC(3Q20), GBIC, 현대차증권 9 2021-2022년 지역별 자동차 수요 증가율 2021년 수요 증가 Driver, Big 3 & BRICs: 유럽, 중국, 미국 순 - 2021년 가장 높은 수요 증가율은 브라질, 인도, 유럽, 러시아, 일본, 미국, 중국 순.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • D2.1 Mapping of the Current Status of Dynamics of Value Chain of European Transport Manufacturing Industry
    Ref. Ares(2018)476363 - 26/01/2018 D2.1 Mapping of the current status of dynamics of value chain of European transport manufacturing industry Arrasate, 26/01/2016 Editor: Gerardo Pagalday [email protected] Authors: All parners Date: 26/01/2018 1 Document change record Version Date Status Author Description 0.1 24/03/2017 Draft Konstantin Konrad Draft document structure 0.2 18/12/2017 Draft Gerardo Pagalday Deliverable version 2 26/01/2018 Deliverable Gerardo Pagalday Deliverable final version Consortium No Participant organisation name Short Name Country 1 VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH VDI/VDE-IT DE 2 Railenium Railenium FR 3 Cranfield University CU UK 4 Maritime University of Szczecin MUS PL 5 Transportøkonomisk Institutt ( TOI) TOI NO 6 Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics ISL DE 7 IK4 Research Alliance IK4 ES 8 Intl. Association of Public Transport Operators UITP BE 2 Table of contents 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 23 1.1 Project background ..................................................................................................... 23 1.2 Objectives ................................................................................................................... 24 1.3 Focus Areas for D2.1 Mapping of the current status of dynamics of value chain of European transport manufacturing industry ............................................................... 24 2 Automotive .........................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • 2017 Annual Report.Pdf
    International Energy Agency Technology Collaboration Programme on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEV TCP) Hybrid and Electric Vehicles The Electric Drive Chauffeurs September 2017 www.ieahev.org Technology Collaboration Programme on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEV TCP) functions within a framework created by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Views, findings, and publications of HEV TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or of all its individual member countries. HEV TCP was previously known as the Implementing Agreement for co-operation on Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technologies and Programmes (IA-HEV). The labelling changed in 2016. Cover Photo: Electric taxi by Chinese automaker BAIC BJEV. Beijing’s fleet of 70,000 taxis will gradually be replaced by EVs. (Image Courtesy: private) The Electric Drive Chauffeurs Cover Designer: Anita Theel (Digital Media Designer) ii International Energy Agency Technology Collaboration Programme on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEV TCP) Annual Report Prepared by the Executive Committee and Task 1 over the Year 2016 Hybrid and Electric Vehicles The Electric Drive Chauffeurs Editor: Gereon Meyer (Operating Agent Task 1, VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH) Co-editors: Jadranka Dokic, Heike Jürgens, Diana M. Tobias (VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH) Contributing Authors: René-Pierre Allard Natural Resources Canada Canada James Barnes Barnes Tech Advising United States Martin Beermann Joanneum Research Austria Graham Brennan SEAI Ireland Jens Brokate DLR Germany Carol Burelle Natural Resources Canada Canada Pierpaolo Cazzola IEA France Cristina Corchero IREC Spain Meally Declan SEAI Ireland Andreas Dorda BMVIT Austria Julie Francis Allegheny Science & Technology United States Halil S. Hamut TÜBITAK MRC Turkey David Howell U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Ready(Ing) for Adoption
    ELECTRIC VEHICLES Ready(ing) for Adoption Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions June 2018 Citi is one of the world’s largest financial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employees conduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary conversation – accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice. As our premier thought leadership product, Citi GPS is designed to help our readers navigate the global economy’s most demanding challenges and to anticipate future themes and trends in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harvests the thought leadership of a wide range of senior professionals across our firm. This is not a research report and does not constitute advice on investments or a solicitations to buy or sell any financial instruments. For more information on Citi GPS, please visit our website at www.citi.com/citigps. Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions June 2018 Raghav Gupta-Chaudhary is currently the European Autos Analyst. He has been an Analyst for seven years and joined Citi's London office in July 2016 to cover European Auto Parts. Raghav previously worked at Nomura from 2011 to 2016, where he started off on the Food Retail team and later transitioned to cover the Automotive sector. He has an honours degree in Mathematics with Management Studies from UCL and is a qualified chartered accountant. +44-20-7986-2358 | [email protected] Gabriel M Adler is a Senior Associate in the Citi Research European Autos team. He is currently based in the London office and started with Citi in October 2017.
    [Show full text]
  • 2019 Annual Report.Pdf
    HEV TCP Buchcover2019_EINZELN_zw.indd 1 15.04.19 11:45 International Energy Agency Technology Collaboration Programme on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEV TCP) Hybrid and Electric Vehicles The Electric Drive Hauls May 2019 www.ieahev.org Implementing Agreement for Co-operation on Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technologies and Programmes (HEV TCP) is an international membership group formed to produce and disseminate balanced, objective information about advanced electric, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles. It enables member countries to discuss their respective needs, share key information, and learn from an ever-growing pool of experience from the development and deployment of hybrid and electric vehicles. The TCP on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEV TCP) is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA) but is functionally and legally autonomous. Views, findings and publications of the HEV TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries. Cover Photo: Scania’s El Camino truck developed for trials on three e-highway demonstration sites on public roads in Germany. The truck is equipped with pantograph power collectors, developed by Siemens and constructed to use e-highway infrastructure with electric power supplied from overhead lines. (Image Courtesy: Scania) The Electric Drive Hauls Cover Designer: Anita Theel ii International Energy Agency Technology Collaboration Programme on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (HEV TCP) Annual Report Prepared by the Executive
    [Show full text]
  • China Autos Driving the EV Revolution
    Building on principles One-Asia Research | August 21, 2020 China Autos Driving the EV revolution Hyunwoo Jin [email protected] This publication was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”). Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation, or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opin- ions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed, or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Please see important disclosures & disclaimers in Appendix 1 at the end of this report. August 21, 2020 China Autos CONTENTS Executive summary 3 I. Investment points 5 1. Geely: Strong in-house brands and rising competitiveness in EVs 5 2. BYD and NIO: EV focus 14 3. GAC: Strategic market positioning (mass EVs + premium imported cars) 26 Other industry issues 30 Global company analysis 31 Geely Automobile (175 HK/Buy) 32 BYD (1211 HK/Buy) 51 NIO (NIO US/Buy) 64 Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK/Trading Buy) 76 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 21, 2020 China Autos Executive summary The next decade will bring radical changes to the global automotive market.
    [Show full text]
  • Electrifying the World's Largest New Car Market; Reinstate At
    August 31, 2016 ACTION Buy BYD Co. (1211.HK) Return Potential: 15% Equity Research Electrifying the world’s largest new car market; reinstate at Buy Source of opportunity Investment Profile Electrification is set to reshape China’s auto market and we expect BYD to Low High lead this trend given its strong product portfolio, vertically integrated model Growth Growth and high OPM vs. peers. A comparative analysis with Tesla shows many Returns * Returns * strategic similarities but BYD’s new energy vehicle business trades at a sizable Multiple Multiple discount, which we see as unjustified given its large cost savings, capacity Volatility Volatility utilization, and front-loaded investment. China’s new energy vehicle market is Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th poised to deliver c.30% CAGR (vs. 4% for traditional cars) over the next decade. BYD Co. (1211.HK) We have removed the RS designation from BYD. It is on the Buy List with a Asia Pacific Autos & Autoparts Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment 12-m TP of HK$61.93, implying 15% upside. Our scenario analysis, flexing profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. sales volume and margin assumptions, implies a further 30% valuation upside. Catalyst Key data Current Price (HK$) 54.00 1) More cities in China are likely to announce local preferential policies in 12 month price target (HK$) 61.93 Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 110,705.4 / 14,270.1 the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment once the result of the subsidy fraud Foreign ownership (%) -- probe is announced.
    [Show full text]
  • A Viga Tin G Outh Ore A
    November 28, 2019 Electrical Components KR EV Battery 2020: Momentum to rebuild OREA K ■ We expect Korean battery makers to benefit from competition for new EVs (between global OEMs and Tesla) and the strong EU EV market. ■ Korean EV battery makers should turn profitable in FY20-21F on the back of ~ 60% yoy EV battery sales growth in FY20-21F and margin expansion. OUTH ■ We also highlight Korean cathode and elecfoil producers on strong capacity expansion, with greater demand for key materials from Korean cell makers. S AVIGATING AVIGATING N Analyst(s) John PK PARK T (82) 2 6730 6125 E [email protected] IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE Powered by END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB the EFA SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. Platform Navigating South Korea Industrial Goods and Services │ Electrical Components │ November 28, 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Key Charts .................................................................................................................................... 4 Questions on battery industry (EV/ESS) ................................................................................... 6 Korean EV battery makers at overcapacity? ........................................................................... 6 EV/ESS battery could turn profitable in 2020? ........................................................................ 8 ESS battery fires: can
    [Show full text]
  • Research on Carbon Emissions of Electric Vehicles Throughout the Life Cycle Assessment Taking Into Vehicle Weight and Grid Mix Composition
    energies Article Research on Carbon Emissions of Electric Vehicles throughout the Life Cycle Assessment Taking into Vehicle Weight and Grid Mix Composition Yanmei Li, Ningning Ha * and Tingting Li Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071000, China; [email protected] (Y.L.); [email protected] (T.L.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-752-5125 Received: 15 August 2019; Accepted: 18 September 2019; Published: 21 September 2019 Abstract: To study the impact of the promotion of electric vehicles on carbon emissions in China, the full life carbon emissions of electric vehicles are studied on the basis of considering such factors as vehicle weight and grid mix composition, and fuel vehicles are added for comparison. In this paper, we collect data for 34 domestic electric vehicles, and linear regression analysis is used to model the relationship between vehicle weight and energy consumption. Then, a Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment method is used to establish the life cycle carbon emission calculation model for electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Finally, the life cycle carbon emissions of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles under different electrical energy structures are discussed using scenario analysis. The results show that under the current grid mix composition in China, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles of the same vehicle weight class are 24% to 31% higher than that of fuel vehicles. As the proportion of clean energy in the grid mix composition increases, the advantages of electric vehicles to reduce carbon emissions will gradually emerge. Keywords: vehicle weight; grid mix composition; electric vehicle; life cycle assessment; carbon emissions 1.
    [Show full text]
  • A Long-Term Competitor, Maintain "Accumulate" 一个长期的竞争者，维持“收集”
    股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: Geely Automobile (00175 HK) Toliver Ma 马守彰 究 (852) 2509 5317 Equity Research 公司报告： 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) [email protected] 31 March 2020 [Table_Summary] A Long-Term Competitor, Maintain "Accumulate" 一个长期的竞争者，维持“收集” Geely Auto’s 2019 profit attributable to shareholders was down 34.8% [Table_Rank] 公 yoy to RMB8,190 million, below market and our expectations. Revenue Rating: Accumulate Maintained decreased by 8.6% as dragged by weak vehicle sales (-10.6% yoy). ASP 司 stayed flat despite sales mix improvement, which was offset by higher 评级： 收集 (维持) 报 customer incentives. Gross margin dropped by 2.8 ppts yoy to 17.4%. In 告 terms of cost, R&D expense was up 56% and drove up administrative expenses. Share of profit from auto finance business doubled yoy but the 6[Table_Price-18m TP 目标价] : HK$12.82 Company Report Lynk & Co. JV profit was down 27%. The Board proposed final dividend of Revised from 原目标价: HK$16.50 HK$0.25 per share, which represents a payout ratio of 25.1% (vs. 2018: Share price 股价: HK$11.280 22.0%). A long-term competitor in the auto industry. We expect that Geely will benefit from the market consolidation and consumption upgrade in China. Its Stock performance leading position will extend into 2020 as propelled by its new model launches. 股价表现 These models will be mainly underpinned by its modular platform, which 30.0 should maintain relatively superior profitability. % of return 20.0 We have adjusted downwards shareholders’ profit in 2020 and 2021 by 20.6% and 19.2%, respectively, on lowered sales and margin.
    [Show full text]
  • Veículos Automotores
    ESTADO DE GOIÁS SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DA ECONOMIA DE GOIÁS INSTRUÇÃO NORMATIVA Nº 184/20-SRE ANEXO II BASE DE CÁLCULO DO IPVA EXERCÍCIO DE 2021 - Valores em R$ sem centavos VEÍCULOS AUTOMOTORES Cod Descrição Comb 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Denatran 1 IMP/BPS D 1.745 1.588 1.459 1.374 1.308 1.207 1 IMP/BPS G 2.824 2.445 2.343 2.024 1.836 1.696 1.588 1.459 1.400 1.288 1.211 1.100 991 2IMP/CZEPEL D 12.60111.642 2IMP/CZEPEL G 15.28512.601 10.440 8.929 4IMP/NEGRINI D 2.7482.637 4IMP/NEGRINI G 2.904 2.637 2.500 2.312 5 IMP/TRIUMPH THUNDERB. 900 G 35.052 31.971 27.068 25.546 5 IMP/TRIUMPH THUNDERB. 900 D 29.476 25.810 9 IMP/HONDA SCOOTER HE LIX G 16.552 13.586 10 IMP/KAWASAKI KDX 200 G 25.998 21.359 19.620 18.453 16.562 11IMP/SUZUKI VS 800 GL D 21.445 12IMP/SUZUKI K-100 G 4.482 12 IMP/SUZUKI K-100 D 7.937 20H/HONDA CB125 S G 4.249 4.045 3.630 20H/HONDA CB125 S D 4.255 3.907 200 AGRALE/CICLOMOTOR G 4.894 201 AGRALE/DAKAR 30.0 G 16.921 13.737 13.696 10.704 8.228 401I/MONIKA L5-650 SPG 3 G 1.796 404 I/SUNRA HAWK G 9.374 423I/BMW G 650 XCHALLENGE G 16.488 424I/LONGJIA LJ125T A B88 G 1.944 425 I/LONGJIA BEE MONACO G 7.668 6.710 6.146 3.246 999 AME/CHOPPER D 9.190 8.808 8.629 8.378 999AME/CHOPPER G 6.516 6.404 5.864 1001 I/ARIEL D 29.916 23.714 13.874 9.924 6.830 6.151 1001I/ARIEL G 40.476 1002 I/HONDA CB 350 D 17.658 14.154 12.053 11.342 9.472 1007I/VYRUS 987 C3 4V G 47.606 1008I/CPI MOTOR CO ARAGON JR G 1.251 1106 I/LAMBRETA V200 SPECIAL G 20.500 19.808 1404BP/TORK 3 D 4.384 1404BP/TORK 3 G 4.761 1502BP/TRICICLO
    [Show full text]
  • Factsheet: Battery Electric Mobility in China
    Factsheet: Battery electric mobility in China Status: October 2020 O Chinese development strategy for electric mobility V Generating around half of global sales of electric vehicles, China is by far the largest electric mobility market in the E world. Alongside worldwide technological leadership, it was the goal of the country’s government to put at least 5 R million so-called NEVs (New Energy Vehicles) on China’s roads by the end of 2020. The Chinese government denes V NEVs to include rstly, purely battery-electric vehicles (BEVs – Battery Electric Vehicles) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs – Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles), and secondly, fuel cell vehicles or particularly efcient vehicles without electric I drives. This factsheet concentrates on BEVs and PHEVs as well as the associated charging infrastructure1 and E provides an overview of the measures taken so far in the areas of market activation, funding support and stock of W both vehicles and charging columns. Market activation phase for BEVs and PHEVs up to 2020 Deploying massive political and nancial commitment, the Chinese government advanced the rollout of NEVs and charging infrastructure in all market segments over the past ten years in order to achieve long-term climate, energy and industrial policy goals in the transport sector. The 13th ve-year plan, the Technology Roadmap of MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) and the NEV development plan provide the policy framework for the market rollout phase. Strategies of the Chinese government for the market rollout of electric
    [Show full text]
  • ELECTRIC CARS an OVERVIEW of the ELECTRIC CAR INDUSTRY and ASSOCIATED TECHNOLOGY Table of Contents
    ELECTRIC CARS AN OVERVIEW OF THE ELECTRIC CAR INDUSTRY AND ASSOCIATED TECHNOLOGY Table of contents Technology: The road to greater range and faster charging Adoption: The drivers behind demand ▪ Batteries ▪ Sales growth ▪ Range ▪ Penetration rate ▪ Charging infrastructure ▪ Sales potential Investment: The ideas leading to innovation Revenue: The segments and regions of growth ▪ Auto industry R&D ▪ Market growth ▪ EV investments ▪ Electric vehicle market size ▪ Patents ▪ EV battery market size Production: The leading regions, companies, and models Sustainability: The issues that need to be tackled ▪ Assembly ▪ Transportation-related emissions ▪ Manufacturers ▪ Renewable sources in power generation ▪ Models ▪ Materials used in batteries 2 Executive Summary The history of motor vehicle manufacturing can be compared to a long and winding road which began in the second half of the 19th century. Although the early 20th century saw the electric car accounting for about one third of road vehicles in operation in the United States and Europe, this type of vehicle quickly became marginalized by diesel and gasoline-powered automobiles, including Ford’s Model T. The so-called Tin Lizzy was built at such an exceptionally low cost that it became hard for electric vehicles (EVs) to compete. The superior driving range of the internal combustion engine (ICE) used in gasoline and diesel-powered cars, coupled with a growing number of gas stations which made refueling quick and easy, added further to the decline in the electric car’s popularity. However, the love for diesel and gasoline-powered vehicles among customers in Europe and North America still took some unexpected turns between 1973 and 2011.
    [Show full text]