Debre Berhan University College of Social Sciences & Humanities Department of Geography and Environmental Studies

DEBRE BERHAN UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & HUMANITIES DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON RURAL LIVELIHOODS AND COMMUNITY RESPONSES: THE CASE OF MERHABETE WOREDA, NORTH SHEWA ZONE, AMHARA NATIONAL REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA.

By: Kefelegn Chernet

July 2020

Debre Berhan, Ethiopia

DEBRE BERHAN UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & HUMANITIES DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON RURAL LIVELIHOODS AND COMMUNITY RESPONSES: THE CASE OF MERHABETE WOREDA, NORTH SHEWA ZONE, AMHARA NATIONAL REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA.

Kefelegn Chernet

A Thesis Submitted to the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies to Presented in Partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of science in Environment and Sustainable Development.

Advisor

Dr. Arragaw Alemayehu

Debre Berhan University

Debre Berhan, Ethiopia

July, 2020

DEBRE BERHAN UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & HUMANITIES DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES THESIS SUBMISSION FOR DEFENSE APPROVAL SHEET – I This is to certify that the thesis entitled: Impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods and community responses: the case of Merhabete woreda, North shewa zone, Amhara national regional state, Ethiopia. submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science with specialization in Environment and sustainable development of the Graduate Program of the Geography and Environmental studies, College of Social Science and Humanities, Debre Berhan University and is a record of original research carried out by Kefelegn Chernet Id. No PGR 028/11, under my supervision, and no part of the thesis has been submitted for any other degree or diploma.

The assistance and help received during the course of this investigation have been duly acknowledged. Therefore, I recommend that it to be accepted as fulfilling the thesis requirements.

Arragaw Alemayehu (PhD) ______Name of Advisor Signature Date

DEBRE BERHAN UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & HUMANITIES DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

APPROVAL SHEET – II This is to certify that the thesis presented by Kefelegn Chernet, entitled: Impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods and community response: the case of Merhabete woreda, North shewa zone, Amhara national regional state, Ethiopia and submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science (Geography and Environmental Studies, Specialization in Environment and Sustainable Development) complies with the regulations of the university and meets the accepted standards with respect to originality and quality.

Signed by the Examining Committee:

External Examiner: - Alem‟metta (PhD) Signature______Date ______

Internal Examiner: - Gebre Tafere (PhD) Signature______Date ______

Advisor: - Arragaw Alemayehu (PhD) Signature______Date______

Chairman of Department: - Ephrem Tegegne (PhD) Signature______Date______

STATEMENT OF THE AUTHOR

I declare that this thesis is my genuine work, and that all sources of materials used for this thesis have been profoundly acknowledged. This thesis has been submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Master of Science (MSc) at Debre Berhan University and it is deposited at the University library to be made available for users under the rule of the library. I declare that this thesis is not submitted to any other institution anywhere for the award of any academic degree, diploma or certificate.

Brief quotations from this thesis are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgement of source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the head of the department or the Dean of College of Post Graduate when in his/her judgment the proposed use of the material is in the interest of scholarship. In all other instances, however, permission must be obtained from the author and advisors of this thesis.

Name: Kefelegn Chernet Signature: Place: College of Social Science and Humanities, Debre Berhan University. Date of Submission: 06/11/2012 E.C

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Above all, I would like to thank the Almighty God without whose support, it would have not been possible all my wishes to come in to reality.

I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my advisor Dr. Arragaw Alemayehu for his supervision, valuable guidance, and intellectual encouragement, critical and constructive comments from the early design of the proposal to the final write up of the thesis. I, really, appreciate his kind and tireless effort.

My special thanks go to my all teachers at Debre Berhan University who taught me courses with their critical methodologies which I should practice them throughout my life.

I am very much grateful to my Mother Aselefech Mekuria, Brother Getachew Chernet, to my sister Atsede Chernet, to Demise Tajebe and Aster Abebawu for their support, encouragement, love and care during my stay in the study area and during attending class. I would like to give my sincere thanks to Ato Demise Tajebe for his paper support and kindness, and also I want to express my deepest thanks and respect for Yimechach Getachewu and her family for their unlimited support includes printing of household questionnaires, to Ato Sisay Simeneh from Amhara Forest Enterprise for his mobile card gift and all my friends who supported me in all aspects. Without your support in all direction the completion of the work was impossible.

Finally I want to thanks Ato Letike Chernet, team leader of Agricultural extension in Merhabete woreda Agricultural development office, to Ato Dejene Terefe officer in Merhabete woreda Administration office and Wugagen Mamo Health extension worker in Ofina Sibewasha kebele for their genuine response and support in providing necessary information, guide and assisted the data collection method from selected kebeles. I also want to thanks all other who participated in this research process.

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ASCI Amhara Credit and Saving Institution CCV Climate Change and Variability

CEEPA Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa

CNCR Carbon Neutral and Climate Resilient

CRGE Climate Resilient Green Economy

CSA Central Statistical Agency

DA Development agent

EPA Environmental Protection Authority

EPE Environment Policy of Ethiopia

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FGD Focus Group Discussion

GHG Green House Gases

GOs Governmental Organizations

GTP Growth and Transformation Plan

HHHs Household Heads

IMF International Monetary Fund

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

KII Key Informant Interview

MWADO Merhabete Woreda Agricultural Development Office

MWAO Merhabete Woreda Administration Office

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NAPA National Adaptation Programs of Action

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations

NMA National Meteorology Agency

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NSZADD North Shewa Zone Agricultural Development Department

PCI Precipitation Concentration Index

SPSS Statistical Package for Social Science

SSA Sub-Saharan Africa

UNDP United Nations Development Program

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WMO World Meteorology Organization

DEFINITION OF LOCAL TERMS

Kebele Lowest administrative unit in Ethiopia

Woreda Forth tier of government administration unit, which is closely equal to district.

Kola: Arid/ low land

Woina Dega Sub humid area

Dega Humid area

Table of Contents Pages STATEMENT OF THE AUTHOR ...... i

ACKNOWLEDGMENT ...... ii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ...... iii

LIST OF TABLES ...... ix

LIST OF FIGURES ...... x

LIST OF TABLES IN THE ANNEX ...... xi

ABSTRACT...... xii

CHAPTER ONE ...... 1

INTRODUCTION ...... 1

1.1. Background of the study ...... 1

1.2. Statement of the problem ...... 4

1.3. Objectives of the study ...... 5

1.4. Research questions ...... 6

1.5. Significance of the study ...... 6

1.6. Scope of the study ...... 7

1.7. Limitations of the study ...... 7

1.8. Ethical considerations ...... 7

1.9. Organization of the study ...... 8

1.10. Definition of key terms ...... 8

CHAPTER TWO ...... 10

LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 10

2.1. Climate change and variability ...... 10

2.2. Observed patterns of climate change at a global level ...... 11

2.3. Causes and manifestations of climate change ...... 14

2.4 Vulnerable social group by climate change and variability ...... 15

2.5. Climate change observations in Ethiopia ...... 16

2.6. Impact of climate change and variability in Ethiopia ...... 17

2.6.1. Impacts on agriculture ...... 18

2.6.2. Impacts on livestock production ...... 19

2.6.3. Impacts on water resources ...... 19

2.7. Responses to climate change in Ethiopia ...... 20

2.7.1. Coping and adaptation strategies to climate change ...... 20

2.7.2. Ethiopia government policy response to climate change ...... 23

2.8. Conceptual framework ...... 26

CHAPTER THREE ...... 28

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...... 28

3.1. Description of the study Area ...... 28

3.1.1. Location ...... 28

3.1.2. Biophysical conditions ...... 29

3.1.3. Demography and socio-economic characteristics...... 30

3.1.4. Livelihood system of Merhabete woreda ...... 31

3.2 Research design ...... 31

3.3. Sample size and sampling technique ...... 32

3.4. Data sources ...... 33

3.5. Instruments of data collection ...... 33

3.5.1. Questionnaire...... 33

3.5.2. Key informant interview ...... 34

3.5.3. Focused group discussion ...... 35

3.5.4. Field observation ...... 35

3.6. Methods of data analysis and interpretation ...... 36

CHAPTER FOUR...... 37

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ...... 37

4.1. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the respondents ...... 37

4.1.1. Age and sex composition of the sample household heads ...... 37

4.1.2. Family structure and marital status of the sample household ...... 39

4.1.3. Educational status ...... 41

4.1.5. Landownership ...... 41

4.1.6. Livestock possession of households ...... 45

4.2. Local rainfall and temperature variability ...... 45

4.2.1. Trends and variability of annual and seasonal rainfall ...... 45

4.2.2. Temperature ...... 48

4.3. Local indicators of climate change and variability ...... 50

4.3.1. Timing of rainfall and variability ...... 51

4.4. Perceived impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihood ...... 52

4.4.1. Impact of climate change on crop production ...... 53

4.4.2. Impacts of climate change on livestock husbandry ...... 54

4.4.3. Impacts of climate change on water availability ...... 56

4.5. Vulnerability of the community to climate shocks ...... 57

4.5.1. Causes of climate change and variability ...... 57

4.5.2. Vulnerable social groups by climate change and variability in the study area ...... 59

4.6. Coping & adaptation strategies to climate change and variability ...... 59

4.6.1. Farmers‟ adaptation strategies to climate change and variability ...... 61

4.6.2. Farmers‟ coping mechanisms to climate change and variability ...... 64

4.6.3. Government responses to climate change and variability ...... 66

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4.7. Barriers to climate change adaptation ...... 70

CHAPTER FIVE ...... 73

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ...... 73

5.1. Summary ...... 73

5.2. Conclusion ...... 75

5.3. Recommendation ...... 76

REFERENCES ...... 78

APPENDIX ...... 84

ANNEX ...... 93

CONFIRMATION LETTERS ...... 96

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LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table 3. 1 Distribution of sample households ...... 32

Table 4. 1 Age and sex composition of the sample household heads ...... 37 Table 4. 2 Chi-square test for hearing about climate CCV * Sex of the household ...... 38 Table 4. 3 Marital status and household size of the respondents ...... 40 Table 4. 4 Educational status of household heads ...... 41 Table 4. 5 Trends of land holding size of respondents ...... 43 Table 4. 6 Effect of cropland and fertilizer on crop production using linear regressions ...... 43 Table 4. 7 Livestock trends before 10 years and currently (2020) in percent...... 45 Table 4. 8 Trends of annual and seasonal rainfall ...... 48 Table 4. 9 Trends of maximum and minimum temperature ...... 50 Table 4. 10 Impacts of climate change and variability on livestock ...... 55 Table 4. 11 Correlations direction of impact of CCV on rural livelihood with adaptation ...... 57 Table 4. 12 ANOVA test between perceptions to adapt CCV with educational level...... 60 Table 4. 13 Farmers adaptation options ...... 63

LIST OF FIGURES Page

Figure 2. 1 The trend of atmospheric CO2 since the industrial revolution ...... 12 Figure 2. 2 Temperature anomalies by NASA‟s Goddard institute for space studies ...... 13 Figure 2. 3 Sustainable rural livelihood framework...... 26

Figure 3. 1 Location map of the Study area...... 28 Figure 3. 2 Conducting interviews with selected participants at field ...... 34 Figure 3. 3 key informant interviews with Woreda agriculture office team leader ...... 34 Figure 3. 4 Photos during focus group discussion at natural resource conservation site ...... 35

Figure 4. 1 Fragmented and hilly farm land ...... 42 Figure 4. 2 Farmers‟ main source of income ...... 44 Figure 4. 3 Trend of annual rainfall ...... 46 Figure 4. 4 Trend of standardized rainfall anomaly ...... 47 Figure 4. 5 Seasonal rainfall variability ...... 48 Figure 4. 6 Annual average maximum and minimum temperature pattern of the study area ...... 49 Figure 4. 7 Local indicator of climate change and variability ...... 51 Figure 4. 8 Timing of rainfall in Merhabete woreda ...... 52 Figure 4. 9 Perceived impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihood...... 53 Figure 4. 10 Observed change in crop production ...... 54 Figure 4. 11 Deforested and degraded area in Jema river watershed ...... 58 Figure 4. 12 Main causes of climate change and variability ...... 58 Figure 4. 13 Vulnerable social groups by climate change/variability...... 59 Figure 4. 14 Households means of income diversification ...... 64 Figure 4. 15 Coping strategies to climate variability ...... 65 Figure 4. 16 Local peoples participating on natural resource conservation (terracing) ...... 68 Figure 4. 17 Nursery site of woreda agriculture office (hybrid mango seeds) ...... 69 Figure 4. 18 Household survey on barriers to adapt climate change ...... 70

LIST OF TABLES IN THE ANNEX Page Annex.1 Monthly Maximum Temperature in ℃ ...... 93 Annex. 2 Monthly Minimum Temperature in ℃ ...... 94 Annex. 3 Monthly rainfall distribution in mm ...... 95

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods and community responses in Merhabete woreda, North Shewa zone, Amhara region. Thus, the study sought to examine the trend of rainfall and temperature in the last three decades, assess impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods, identify individuals „and government response, and group of society vulnerable by climate variability. To achieve the objectives, appropriate data were collected from three sample kebeles having different agro ecological zones, which were selected through simple random sampling method and 138 household heads were purposively selected from sample kebeles. FGD and key informant interview were conducted to supplement the quantitative survey results. In addition, monthly rainfall and temperature data for the period 1989-2019 were used to analyses the trends and variability of rainfall and temperature in the area. Results indicated that the maximum temperature showed statistically significant increasing trend at p=0.01 level with insignificant decreasing trend of minimum temperature. The annual rainfall indicate statistically significant decreasing trend at p=0.01 level with significant decreasing trend of Bega and Kiremt rainfall at p=0.01 and 0.05 level respectively, but the Belg rainfall shows insignificantly decreasing trend. Crop yield reduction, shortage of pasture for animals, occurrence of new disease on crops, humans and animals, shortage of water supply, flooding and erosion are the major perceived impacts of climate change and variability. In response farmers had adopted different coping strategies like; selling fire wood and charcoal, decrease amount of meal, selling of livestock, seasonal migration and borrowing grains from relatives. The most common adaptation options include;growing short maturing crops, storage of crop grains, intensive irrigation, income and crop diversification. The study also identified women, children, elders, disables; poor and landless are most vulnerable to the existing effect of climate change and variability. Based on the results, this study suggests the following recommendations to minimize the impacts of climate variability. Empowering peoples with education and information, beneficiary to productive safety net program, facilitating access to credit services, train farmers on utilization of inputs, use environmentally sound agricultural production system, use integrated adaptation & mitigation measures, solve the constraint and expand indigenous adaptation strategies.

Key words: Adaptation, climate change, coping, livelihoods, vulnerability.

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Climate change becomes a serious issue throughout the world. It is influencing the normal processes of major ecosystems of the world. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, wide spread melting of snow, ice and rising global average sea level. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. This increasing level of emissions of greenhouse gases has caused a rise in the amount of heat from the sun trapped in the earth‟s atmosphere, heat that would normally be radiated back into space. This has led to the greenhouse effect, resulting in climate change (IPCC, 2014).

The fifth assessment report of the IPCC (2014) dispelled many uncertainties about climate change. The international consensus of scientific opinion, led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agreed that global temperature is increasing and that the main cause is the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. Warming of the climate system is now unequivocal. It is now clear that global warming is due to manmade emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG), mostly CO2 and over the last century atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increased from pre-industrial value of 278 parts per million to 379 parts per million in 2005. If emissions remain at current rates, by 2050 the concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere will reach 550 parts per million and continue to increase thereafter (World Bank, 2010). The average global temperature rose by 0.78oC (UNFCCC, 2007) and as IPCC reported “Several regional changes in climate are assessed to occur with global warming up to 1.5°C compared to pre- industrial levels, including warming of extreme temperatures in many regions”(IPCC, 2018).

Climate change has become one of the great challenges to the development of countries. It is now affecting agriculture and food production worldwide. There is evidence of declining crop yield due to climate change in many countries (Muamba and Kraybill, 2010). This challenge appears to be more devastating in the case of low-income countries. This is partly because high vulnerability of poor countries to climatic shocks due to their limited capacity to adapt and that agriculture accounts for a larger fraction of their economy. And agriculture in these countries is climate sensitive partly because of generally already high temperature and that it is largely rain- fed. As a result, significant proportions of people living in poor countries are facing the risks of food insecurity. To reduce the impact of climate change on food supplies, livelihood and economies, we must greatly increase adaptive capacity in agriculture –both on long term climatic trends and to increasing variability as an urgent policy (Beddington et al., 2011). This problem is more serious in developing countries as they lack adaptive capacity.

Variability of climatic elements, specially rainfall and temperature, may affect agricultural production as they influence the production elements like soil moisture and soil fertility, length of growing season and increased probability of extreme climatic conditions (McGuigan et al., 2002 cited in Leta, 2011), although with special variations. The degree of impacts of climate change varies from one agro-ecology to another. The common adverse impacts of climate change and variability, however is crop damage, lower yields, income lose, harvesting difficulties, increased pest activities and delayed seeding (Pearce, 2009) irrespective of ecological variations.

Africa is commonly identified as the region highly vulnerable to climatic variability‟s of the tropical rain i.e. uncertainties of commencement, termination, continuity and intensities, mainly because it is the continent which has its major areal spread within the tropics. And as a matter of fact it is the tropical land which is full of uncertainties of climatic attributes. In addition to this the social, economic, and political constraints that determine the capacity of human systems to cope with climate change and variability, and the existing burden of climate-related hazards, including high prevalence of food insecurity. Africa is also sensitive to climatic hazards, as its people are mainly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods such as agriculture, pastoralist and fishing. Environmental stressors, thus, place a large proportion of the population at risk of adverse outcomes (Ford et al., 2010).

Smallholder farmers in many parts Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) generally face widespread problems related to inappropriate cultivation, overgrazing and deforestation, resulting soil erosion and soil fertility decline, also water scarcity, lack of pasture and livestock feed and the fuel wood crisis, There is much concern that the fragile African ecosystems (mountains, dry lands and Coastal areas) will undergo noticeable changes under future climate scenarios (FAO, 2011).

Ethiopia is one of African countries, which become vulnerable to climate change. Ethiopia is especially vulnerable to climate change because of its geographic coverage and complexity, low income and reliance on climate sensitive economic sectors particularly agriculture and pastoralist. The livelihoods of millions of people in the country are critically dependent on climate. The impact of climate change in Ethiopia is highly manifested because of agriculture is expected to play a key role in ensuring food security and the country‟s economy (Aklilu & Dereje, 2010). The system of agriculture, which is mostly rain-fed, is highly affected with late onset and early offset of rainfall during the main rainy season and in most cases total failure of the Belg season. This may result in drought and famine.

According to IMF (2012), agricultural sector remains a key source of growth in Ethiopia but it continues to face major challenges. The 2006 flood in Dire Dawa city and Gambela region damaged crops and reduced productivity, washing away homes, infrastructure, significantly damaging individual assets and outbreaks of acute water diarrhea among people were the major impacts of climate change in Ethiopia. Rural livelihoods remain extremely vulnerable to climatic shocks as food production is mainly dependent of natural rainfall and irrigation supports only negligible portion of the country‟s total cultivated land. Irrigation agriculture accounts for only 5% of the country‟s total cultivated land (Mesfin, 2020). Thus, the amount and temporal variation of rainfall and other climatic factors during the growing season are critical to crop yield and can induce food shortage and famine. This shows that climate change and variability can have greater negative impacts on poor farm households due to high vulnerability leading to food insecurity. In turn, food insecurity has become a very important development challenge in Ethiopia (Dawit and Habtamu, 2011). As agriculture is the main source of livelihood of the people in Merhabete woreda, farmers face both agricultural drought problems and socio-economic problems. The growing population (1.9%) in the woreda increased the demand for food, resources, land and other basic needs of life,

especially, during drought time the problem becomes very challenging for the community (MWADO, 2019). No studies have been done in Merhabete woreda that gives special emphasis on the impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihood. Therefore, this study wanted to investigate the impact of climate change on rural livelihood with their coping and adaptation strategies at Merhabete woreda, North Shewa zone.

1.2. Statement of the problem

Climate change and variability adversely affect the environment, human health, food security, economic activities, resources and physical infrastructures. Although all social, economic and political sectors face the impact of climate change and variability at varying degrees, the worst hit is supposed to be the rain fed agriculture due to its high sensitivity to climate stimuli. For this reason, when this sector is impacted, it disrupts the food production system, food security status of households and domestic industries. It is also very well recognized that the consequences of climate change and irregularities vary spatially in magnitudes. For example, the countries of Sub- Saharan Africa are the most vulnerable and since many countries of this region are already food insecure; climate change and variability aggravate and worsen the problems ((Daniel, 2009 cited in Alemu, 2011).

Moreover, the World Bank (2012), states that Ethiopia is one of the countries extremely vulnerable to drought and natural disasters such as flood, heavy rain, frost and heat waves. Such extreme weather causes the losses of people and livestock and disrupts livelihoods of farmers.

The livelihoods of most of the people in North shewa zone depend on agriculture (both crop and livestock production) which is greatly climate sensitive in its nature and slight irregularities in climatic conditions adversely affect agricultural production and hence the livelihoods of households. Some of the signs of this effect are drought, food insecurity, failure of crop production, death of livestock, loss of biodiversity and even famine (NSZADD, 2019).

According to National Meteorological Agency (NMA, 2007) climate change and variability affects agriculture, health, water resources and natural resource. Farmers of Merhabete woreda, like farmers in any other part of North Showa zone, are suffering from climate disruptions which have become common natural catastrophes in the zone. In my observation and information gain

from the residents, there is more erratic, unseasonal and unreliable rainfall in the rainy seasons, bringing drought, reduction in crop yields, floods, landslides and soil erosion. In addition, there has been an increase in temperature which disturbs the physiology of crops and livestock, micro- climate and the soil system on which they produced. The annual river runoff and water availability has been decrease year to year (MWADO, 2019). All these climate shocks have aggravated the negative impacts on the livelihood of farmers, as they have the lowest capacity to adapt to climate changes (Abate, 2009). Generally, this varied climate in the study area influences the livelihood activities of the farming community.

In spite of these the woreda is characterized by heavily fragile natural resource base, shortage of agricultural land, late coming and early withdrawal of rain fall and speedy deforestation which resulted land degradation in most low lands of the area. Since recent past, farmers in the woreda are facing adverse impacts of climate change and variability on their livelihood. As a result of this, crop and livestock production has decreased and the woreda has become significantly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability. In addition to this, due to the change in the pattern and timing of rain fall, there is change in the cropping pattern of the study area (MWADO, 2019).

Climate change impact assessment research in the study area is not conducted so far and available studies focused on policy responses to climate change and variability at national level, leaving out the efforts made to adapt in household and community level. Very few studies conducted at the local level (e.g. a study conducted by Abate Feyissa (2009) in West Arsi Zone, Alemu Eshetu (2011) in Guba Lafto Woreda, North Wollo Zone and Niguse Gebremedhin (2011) in Alamata, South Tigray) but community‟s adaptation practice differs from community to community. Therefore, this study analyzed the impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods and local response mechanisms being undertaken in Merhabete woreda, a place received limited research attention so far.

1.3. Objectives of the study

The main objective of the study is to assess impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods and local response mechanisms being undertaken in Merhabete woreda, North Shewa zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia.

The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the trends and variability of rainfall and temperature in the last three decades, (2) assess the impacts of climate change and variability on crop production and livestock husbandry, (3) identify more vulnerable social groups to climate change and variability, and (4) explore the local coping and adaptation strategies to climate change and variability

1.4. Research questions

Based on the above specific objectives the following questions are posed as basis for the study:

1. What has been the trend of climatic condition of the study area? 2. What are the impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods of Merhabete woreda? 3. Who are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability? 4. How do local communities respond to the effects of climate change and variability?

1.5. Significance of the study

Climate change and variability has become a serious challenge for the implementation of the country‟s development strategies. Even though climate change is affecting the whole world, the extent differs from region to region and from locality to locality. Similarly, the coping mechanism differs from community to community. These together indicate the fact that local studies are necessary to understand the extent of variability and climate change at different levels and different coping mechanisms that may be replicated and used as remedial measures in other similar occasions.

As the majority of Ethiopia‟s economy depends on rain fed agriculture, it would be imperative to enable farmers better understand and adapt to the changing climate of the country. Cognizant of this fact, over the last few years, the government of Ethiopia has been implementing a reform program aimed at poverty reduction through rapid economic growth and macroeconomic stability,

which would enable the small holder farmers better adapt to the adverse effects of climate change and variability. As the issue is the concern of the entire world, especially those of developing countries, which have limited adaptive capacity to respond to the adverse effects of climate change and variability effects. So it used as an input for adaptive planning and exploring local adaptive and coping strategies. It provides climate related information about the woreda to GOs, NGOs, academician, researchers and policy makers.

1.6. Scope of the study

The scope of the study was limited to Merhabete woreda, North Shewa zone, Amhara regional state and to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihood and community responses. Livelihood is very wide concept including many elements and explanatory variables that are related to each other in a complex way. Climate change and variability can affect all elements of livelihood resources (natural capital, human capital, physical capital, financial capital and social capital etc.). However, this study focused only on the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production, both crop production and animal husbandry in the study area.

1.7. Limitations of the study

Some challenges had occurred while conducting this study. One of the main problems faced during the study was, some farmers were reluctant to give correct information on their socio economic and demographic situation, absence of the HHHs at their home during the survey and shortage of secondary data. The other challenge encountered during the survey was outbreak of corona vires pandemic 2019 (COVID 19 Pandemic), so that initially some kebele officials not willing to collect data and some respondents frustrate to meet with me. However, efforts were made by the researcher and able to get the required information despite these challenges.

1.8. Ethical considerations

The respondents for this research were not obligated to participate and give any response. Household survey and FGD participate in the study area were participated voluntarily, whereas for key informant interview participants by showing collaboration letter to undertake research in

the woreda written by Deber Berhan University department of GES, easily able to collect both primary and secondary data. The respondents had the right to decide not to participate, or to stop at any time without providing a reason for doing so. In this study, none of the respondents refused to participate.

1.9. Organization of the study

This paper is organized in five chapters. The first chapter deals with the introduction part which includes the background of the study, statement of the problem, objectives, research questions, significance of the study, limitation of the study, scope of the study, ethical considerations and organization of the paper. Chapter two is all about review of related literature related with climate change and variability, its impact and adaptation .The third chapter describes research methodology and description of the study area. Chapter four presents discussion and findings of the study. And the fifth chapter deals with summary, conclusion and recommendations forwarded by the researcher.

1.10. Definition of key terms

Climate variability: refers to the climatic parameter of region varying from its long-term mean. Every year in specific time period, the climate of location is different. Some years have average rainfall, some have average or above average rainfall (IPCC, 2007). Climate change: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use systems (IPCC, 2001).. Adaptation: all adjustments or moderation in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate change as well as taking advantage of new/arising opportunities (IPCC, 2007). Mitigation: an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of Green House Gases (IPCC, 2001). Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (IPCC, 2001).

Adaptive Capacity: Adaptive capacity is defined as “the potential or capability of a system to adjust to climate change, including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences” (Smit and Pilifosova, 2001). Livelihood: A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (including both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stress and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base (Chambers and Conway, 1991).

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. Climate change and variability

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era and of human civilization. Most of these changes are attributed to very small changes in the Earth‟s orbit changing the amount of solar energy the Earth receives. The current warming trend is a particular significance because most of it is very likely human induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years. The climate of a place or region has changed over an extended period (typically decades or longer). There is a statistically significant change in measurements of either the mean state or variability of the climate for that place or region. Changes in climate may be due to natural processes or persistent anthropogenic factors that caused in atmosphere or in land use systems (UNFCCC, 2007). Climate change has the potential to undermine sustainable development, increase poverty, and delay or prevent the realization of the development goals proposed by every nation.

Climate change can influence humans directly, through impacts on health and the risk of extreme events on lives, livelihoods and human settlements, and indirectly, through impacts on food security and the viability of natural resource-based economic activity. Competition for scarce resources, such as fresh water, land or fishing grounds, brought about by changes in climate, has the added potential to cause conflict over resources with impacts on the achievement of the development goals, and on human migration. For example, in Africa increased pressure on resources related to food and water insecurity can deepen tensions between communities and ethnic groups resulting in violence and war (Oxfam, 2006). Erikson (2008) noted that, the direct effects of climate change include changes in rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, and sea level. These changes could have adverse effects on ecological system, human health and the various social and economic sectors. The impacts on countries of the world may range from sea-level rise, melting ice caps and glaciers in the polar and coastal regions along with increased incidences of

catastrophic drought, flooding and disease burdens in the tropics and sub-tropics. However, the most problematic impacts would occur in poor countries that are heavily dependent on climate sensitive economies and have least adaptive capacities to the changes.

When dealing with issues of climate change, it is important to understand the different terms used as packages in understanding the system. Accordingly, “climate variability” is the fluctuation in climatic parameters from the normal or baseline values, whereas “climate change” is a change in the long-term mean value of a particular climate parameter (Olmens, 2001). So generally Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales.

2.2. Observed patterns of climate change at global level

According to IPCC (2001) Climate Change- refers to a statistically significant variation either from the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural processes or external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. In the past few years, climate change has become a core issue in various developmental and political forums at the national, regional and international level. Many regional conferences have discussion sessions on climate change based on the recognition, that global climate change is increasing and this has become more evident in recent years (Aklilu and Alebachew, 2009).

According to the IPCC (2007) fourth assessment report, warming of the climate system is a real, as an evident, observations and meteorological data‟s shows that there is an increase in global average air and ocean temperatures, extensive melting of snow, ice and average sea level is rising in global level. The global average temperature has risen by 0.74°C and the global sea level has risen by 17cm during the 20th century because of melting of snow and ice from the mountains and Polar Regions. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbon and nitrous oxide have been identified as a main factor of global warning (Singh, 2008). It is, thus apparent that the global warming is due to anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. The major sources of greenhouse gases are electric power station due to burning of fossil fuels, numerous factories spread all over the world, the transport sector and deforestation. The relative

share of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane and nitrous oxides were 51%, 20% 16% and 16% respectively up to 1990 (Singh, 2008). The increased concentrations of these gases affect agricultural production. In line with this Ellis (2010) argued that, the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are a key element of climate change that could affect food security.

World Meteorology Organization (WMO,2003) and IPCC (2007) stated that carbon dioxide concentrations have increased from 280 parts per million (PPM) in pre-industrial times (1750s) to 379 PPM at present and it is estimated that, with the present trend, the concentration will range between 540 and 970 PPM in the year 2100.

Figure 2. 1 The trend of atmospheric CO2 since the industrial revolution (Source: NOAA)

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the industrial revolution.

Based on climate models, global average temperature is projected to increase by 1.4Oc to 5.8Oc by the end of the present century (CIER, 2008), sea level is expected to rise 0.09 to 0.88 meter from the 1990 level by the end of this century and precipitation extremes are projected to increase more than the average in the future (WMO, 2003).

According to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2020 report, Earth's global surface temperatures in 2019 were the second warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880. Globally, 2019 temperatures were second only to those of 2016 and continued the planet's long-term warming trend: the past five years have been the warmest of the last 140 years. This past year, they were 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (0.98 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean. According to scientists at NASA‟s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, the decade that just ended is clearly the warmest decade on record, every decade since the 1960s clearly has been warmer than the one before. Since the 1880s, the average global surface temperature has risen and the average temperature is now more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (a bit more than 1 degree Celsius) above that of the late 19th century. For reference, the last Ice Age was about 10 degrees Fahrenheit colder than pre-industrial temperatures.

Figure 2. 2 Temperature anomalies Source: NASA‟s Goddard institute for space studies

This plot shows yearly temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2019, with respect to the 1951-1980 mean, as recorded by NASA, NOAA, the Berkeley Earth research group, the Met Office Hadley Centre (UK), and the Cowtan and Way analysis. Though there are minor variations from year to year, all five temperature records show peaks and valleys in sync with each other. All show rapid warming in the past few decades, and all show the past decade has been the warmest.

Using climate models and statistical analysis of global temperature data, scientists have concluded that this increase mostly has been driven by increased emissions into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced by human activities.

2.3. Causes and manifestations of climate change

The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. During the last centuries natural factors such as volcanic eruptions or the amount of energy released from the sun have affected the Earth's climate on a smaller scale. By the 1950s and early 1960s, it was becoming clear that human activities were releasing CO2 fast enough to significantly increase its atmospheric abundance (Dessler & Parson, 2006). Beginning since the 19th century, due to human activities associated with emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases the composition of the atmosphere has changed. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC published in 2007 stated that, most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human caused) greenhouse gas concentrations (Pender, J.S. 2010). The scientific community has reached consensus that this changes cause a warming of the atmosphere and therefore influencing the Earth's climate. Continuation of greenhouse gas emissions can result in additional warming over the 21st century up to 4.5 °C.

Land-use and land- cover changes influence carbon fluxes and GHG emissions (Houghton, 2001), which directly alter atmospheric composition and radioactive forcing properties. They also change land-surface characteristics and indirectly climatic processes. Established evidence links land degradation to the loss of biodiversity and climate change, both as cause and effect. CO2 - induced climate change and land degradation remain inextricably linked because of feedbacks between land degradation and precipitation. Climate change might exacerbate land degradation through alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and winds (Sorhaug, 2011).

Rising fossil fuel burning and land use changes have emitted and are continuing to emit, increasing quantities of greenhouse gases into the Earth‟s atmosphere (UNFCCC, 2007). These greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen dioxide (N2O) and

rise in these gases has caused raise in the amount of heat from the sun with held in the earth‟s atmosphere, heat that would normally be back into space. Greenhouse gases and aerosols affect climate by altering incoming solar radiation and out-going infrared (thermal) radiation that are part of Earth‟s energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system. Since the start of the industrial era (about1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions (IPCC, 2007).

The knowledge of climate change manifestations is a paramount importance to understand its impact on different sectors. The increase in average temperature of the planet and change in hydrological cycle are major manifestations of climate change (Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005 cited in Leta A.).The main characteristics of climate change are increases in average global temperature (global warming), changes in cloud cover and precipitation particularly over land, melting of ice caps and glaciers, reduced snow cover and increases in ocean temperatures and ocean acidity due to sea water absorbing heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

2.4 Vulnerable social group by climate change and variability

World Bank, (2012) stats that the poor, landless, women‟s, children, disabled‟s and elders are among the most vulnerable social groups in the community due to lack of access to resources mobility, decision making etc., and individuals in a community often vary in terms of education, gender, wealth, health status, access to credit, access to information and technology, formal and informal (social) capital, political power, and so on. These variations are responsible for the variations in vulnerability levels. According to Temesgen (2010), there are three major conceptual approaches to analyzing vulnerability to climate change are the socio-economic, the biophysical (impact assessment), and the integrated assessment approaches. Socioeconomic vulnerability assessment approach mainly focuses on the socioeconomic and Political status of individuals or social groups. The biophysical, or impact assessment, approach is mainly concerned with the physical impact of climate change on different attributes, such as yield and income and the integrated assessment approach combines both socioeconomic and biophysical approaches to determine vulnerability.

2.5. Climate change observations in Ethiopia

Like much of Africa, Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates, (EPA, 2011).Various studies have investigated historical trends of climate change and variability in Ethiopia. For instance, from 0.2°C to 0.28°C rise per decade in the average annual maximum temperature between 1960 and 2006 was reported in recent studies, whereas, 0.37°C/decade increase was observed in the minimum temperature between 1951 and 2006. A projection suggests that Ethiopia will experience a 1.7°C–2.1°C increase in the mean temperature by 2050 (Bewket and Conway,2007).

According to Gezahegn Abebe (2017), the mean annual temperature in Ethiopia has increased by 1.65°C between 1955 and 2015. The country‟s agricultural production depends heavily on local temperature and rainfall. In the last decade, the country has been subjected to drought, floods, new insect pests, new vector-borne diseases and other problems made worse by climate change. Ethiopia‟s diverse agro ecological zones are characterized by a dazzling variety of microclimates and corresponding weather patterns. Over centuries, its people have developed agricultural systems adapted to Ethiopia‟s diverse environment. However, the rapid pace of climate change, along with increasing socioeconomic pressures, threatens to overwhelm their ability to cope (Bishaw, et al, 2013). Over the past three decades, Ethiopia has experienced countless localized drought events and seven major droughts, five of which resulted in famines (World Bank Group, 2010).

As explained in NMA (2007), baseline climate that was developed using historical data of temperature and precipitation from 1971- 2000 for selected stations in Ethiopia, showed a very high year-to-year variation in rainfall, for the period 1951 to 2005 over the country expressed in terms of normalized rainfall . Over those periods (1951-2000), some of the years have been dry resulting in droughts and famine while others were characterized by wet conditions (NMA, 2007). During extreme drought conditions, it is common that many farmers in the country either die due to hunger or depend on foreign food aid to sustain their lives (Temesgen., et al., 2010). The observed trend in annual rainfall, however, remained more or less constant when averaged over the whole country (NMA, 2007). Studies also indicate that

there has been a very high temperature variation and change in its trend over time. Annual minimum temperatures for the period 1951 to 2005 expressed in terms of temperature differences from the mean and averaged over 40 stations showed a very high variability (NMA, 2007). The country experienced both warm and cool years over those 55 years even though the recent years are generally warmest compared to the early periods.

According to NMA (2007) forecast, the country will experience an increasing level of temperature and precipitation in the coming decades. Using the software MAGICC/SCENGEN (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change)/ (Regional and global Climate Scenario Generator) coupled model for three periods centered around the years 2030, 2050 and 2080, NMA (2007) generated that the mean annual temperature will increase in the range of 0.9-1.1°C by 2030, in the range of 1.7-2.1°C by 2050 and in the range of 2.7-3.4°C by 2080 over Ethiopia for the IPCC mid-range emission scenario compared to the 1961-1990 normal.

According to the National Meteorological Agency, long-term climate change in Ethiopia is associated with changes in precipitation patterns, rainfall variability and temperature, which could increase the country‟s frequency of both droughts and floods. Although both developed and developing countries are affected by climate change, developing countries face greater challenges in overcoming its adverse consequences. Ethiopia is one of the least developed countries in the world; with a per capita income of less than US$130 in 2006. Low economic development, inadequate infrastructure, and lack of institutional capacity all contribute to the country‟s vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change (IFPRI, 2010).

2.6. Impact of climate change and variability in Ethiopia

Ethiopian climate is characterized by a history of climate extremes, such as droughts and floods, increase and decreasing in temperature and precipitation, respectively. The history of climate extremes, especially drought, is not a new phenomenon in Ethiopia. The most drought prone and affected areas of the country are in the northern, eastern and southern parts. Total failure or shortage of rainfall is often cited as the major cause for the recurring droughts and harvest failures. Such a problem or situation is further exacerbated by the social, economic and ecological situations (Dawit & Habtamu, 2011). Continued climate change is expected to bring

greater variability and extreme weather events (e.g. droughts) which will further drive degradation of the country‟s ecosystems. The impact of climate change in Ethiopia is already apparent in the increasing temperature and declining rainfall, particularly in northern parts which are exceptionally vulnerable to drought (Cesar and Ekbom, 2013).

Ethiopia is also vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change and to climate induced damage to transportation infrastructure. The implications of future climate change will be felt throughout these particularly vulnerable sectors, although secondary impacts will be felt more widely, for example in education and gender equity. A recent study by the World Bank projects that, unless steps to build resilience are effective, climate change will reduce Ethiopia‟s GDP growth by between 0.5 and 2.5% each year. There are strong links between environment and health concerns in Ethiopia particularly related to malnutrition, indoor air pollution and water-related diseases (Cesar and Ekbom, 2013). Ethiopia is especially vulnerable to climate variability and change because large segments of the population are poor and depend on agricultural income, which is highly sensitive to rainfall variability. Most have low access to education, information, technology, basic social and support services, and as a result, have low adaptive capacity to deal with the consequences of climate variability and change (Oxfam 2010, The World Bank Group 2010, Regassa et al, 2010, cited in Bishaw et al., 2013).

2.6.1. Impacts on agriculture

Climate change can affect agricultural production in a variety of ways. Temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme climate conditions, surface water runoff, soil moisture and CO2 concentration are some of the variables which can considerably affect agricultural development (Zhai and Zhuang, 2009). Ethiopian agriculture is heavily dependent on natural rainfall, with irrigation agriculture accounting for less than 5% of the country‟s total cultivated land. Thus, the amount and temporal distribution of rainfall and other climatic factors during the growing season are critical to crop yields and can induce food shortages and famine (CSA, 2008). Like many other developing countries, agriculture (with the largest number of livestock in Africa) is the single largest livelihood of an overwhelming majority in Ethiopia. During drought and delay in the onset of rain land becomes dry and difficult to plough, forage deficit leads to weakness and oxen mortality (engine of subsistent cultivation), and lack of precipitation hinders seed cultivation

and germination of cultivated seeds. Even weeks delay in the onset of rain was found to have significant difference on the harvest and has deprivation of households‟ livelihood (Abate, 2009).

2.6.2. Impacts on livestock production

Similar to crop production, the impact of climate change and variability in the livestock production is generally negative. Heat stress and its impact on seasonal water availability have a variety of detrimental effects on livestock, with significant effects on milk production and reproduction in dairy cows, and swine fertility (Nigus, 2011). Drought and delay in the onset of rain led to poor grass regeneration/forage deficit, water shortage and heat stress on livestock and consequently increased the mortality of the livestock, vulnerability to diseases and physical deterioration due to long distance travel for water and pastures (Abate, 2009).

Climate change affects livestock both directly and indirectly. The direct effects from air temperature, humidity, wind speed and other climate factors influence animal performance: growth, milk production, wool production and reproduction. Climate change will have far- reaching consequences for dairy and meat production, especially in vulnerable parts of the world where it is vital for nutrition and livelihoods. The impact of climate change can heighten the vulnerability of livestock systems and exacerbate existing stresses upon them, such as drought (Abebe, 2013). The most vulnerable communities to the impacts of climate change inhabit the dry lands areas. Pastoralists inhabiting dry lands have been able to survive the harsh environments practicing various sustainable livelihood approaches including seasonal movements, keeping livestock, among others( UNDP, 2010).

2.6.3. Impacts on water resources

Water is an essential resource for all life and a requirement for good health and sanitation. It is a critical input for industry, essential for sustainable growth and poverty reduction. Climate change will alter patterns of water availability by intensifying the water cycle. Droughts and floods will become more severe in many areas. There will be more rain at high latitudes and less rain in the dry subtropics (Pender, J.S. 2010). Observed warming over several decades has been linked to changes in the large scale hydrological cycle such as: increasing atmospheric water vapor content, changing precipitation patterns and intensity, reduced snow cover, widespread melting

of ice, changes in soil moisture and runoff. Precipitation changes show substantial spatial and inter-decadal variability (Bates et al, 2008).

Climate change is also likely to intensify the current challenges of water scarcity and water competition within and between communities and nations, linked by hydrological flows across watersheds and basins. By the middle of the 21st century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase as a result of climate change at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas and decrease over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Poor and vulnerable populations of SSA are likely to face the greatest risk. Moreover, there is recognition that climate change mainly as a result of human action, is impacting SSA more than other continents because its economies are largely based on weather sensitive crop-livestock and agro pastoral production systems and also due to the low adaptive capacity of SSA countries to climate change and variability (FAO, 2011).

2.7. Responses to climate change in Ethiopia

2.7.1. Coping and adaptation strategies to climate change

Societies are dynamic and they use all possible strategies to reduce the vulnerability to climatic impacts. There are two kinds of responses to crisis that overlaps across the temporal scale, coping mechanisms and adaptive capacity. Coping mechanisms are the actual responses to crisis on livelihood systems in the face of unwelcome situations, and are considered as short-term responses (Berkes& Jolly 2001, as cited in Abate, 2009). Adaptation to climate change is a response (processes) through which people reduce the adverse effects of climate on their health and well-being and take advantage of the opportunities that their climatic environment provides (Burton 1992, cited in Niguse, 2011).

The people of Ethiopia are struggling against the impact of climate variations. They have been facing the impacts in various forms over millennia and have developed a range of coping mechanisms to deal with the impacts (McKee, 2008 cited in Aklilu & Dereje, 2010). The most important coping mechanisms widely used include: changes in cropping and planting practices, reduction of consumption level, use of inter-household transfers and loans, collection of wild foods, increased petty commodity production, temporary and permanent migration of people and

animals, hidden secure grain storage, sale of assets such as livestock and agricultural tools, mortgaging of land/ taking credit from merchants and money lenders, use of early warning systems and appeals for food and other forms of aid (NMA, 2006 cited in Aklilu & Dereje, 2010). As already mentioned, for many centuries, Ethiopia has been characterized by climate variability and change; the local people have developed different Coping and adaptation strategies. These include:-

Mixed farming In the drier areas of Ethiopia, cropping is largely difficult and certainly risk full both with regards to production and environmental degradation (Cooper et al., 2008). In these areas Pastoralism dominates. In other areas of the country, crop production can be mixed with pastoralism and risk can be reduced this way. CEEPA (2006) stated that, owning livestock may buffer the farmers against the effect of crop failure or low yields during harsh climatic conditions. If the farmers have these types of resources it may function as an important safety net and also contribute to extra income, because animal products can be sold and livestock can also be sold during difficult periods. Selling of livestock is identified as a coping mechanism to climate variability and extremes in Ethiopia (Abebe, 2007).

Selling of assets Sale of agricultural tools and other assets are identified as coping mechanism to climate variability and extremes in Ethiopia. Farmers may sell some of their resources and this can be an important extra income and can also function as a safety net and a coping mechanism. Material assets within the household can be seen as buffer against difficult periods (Chemeda et al., 2006, Abebe, 2007).

Crop diversification Crop diversification is well known in sub Saharan Africa. This strategy seeks to avoid risks of total crop failure rather than maximizing yields of one particular crop (UNEP, 2006). Also in Ethiopia crop diversification is widespread. Crop diversification is the most commonly used method to overcome the impact of climate change and variability in Ethiopia (Temesgen et al., 2014). Diversification is identified as a coping strategy that has evolved to deal with both expected rainfall uncertainty and seasonal fluctuations in rainfall (Cooper et al., 2008). There are

many benefits with crop diversification. It is more secure because if one variety fails, farmers probably still have some other crop varieties that are successful. Secondly, with rotating of crop varieties on each plot of land, soil fertility will be maintained and the soil will not be exhausted (CEEPA, 2006). Maintaining a high level of plant biodiversity within the farm boundaries and in the agricultural landscapes has also been recognized as a good strategy to reduce food insecurity (UNEP, 2006). Crop diversification has become more and more important when the climate is changing.

Irrigation Rain fed agriculture in sub Saharan Africa will remain vital for food security (Cooper et al., 2008). At the same time, irrigation can be a valuable strategy for making agriculture more stable and safe. Types of irrigation are for example dams and ponds, hand dug wells and other types of wells, flood irrigation, sprinkler irrigation, lifting water using a petrol-fueled pump engine, and irrigation by gravity (CIA, 2011; Joto, 2009). Use of irrigation is one of the least practiced adaptation strategies among the major adaptation methods identified in Ethiopia (Temesgen et al., 2014).

Off-Farm activities Farmer‟s vulnerability to climate change can be mitigated if they have off-farm work on the side. Chemeda et al., (2006) found that, sale of labor was a successful coping strategy among farmers in the Upper Awash Basin of Ethiopia during drought periods because, it reduces dependency on agriculture. Traditional and contemporary coping mechanisms in Ethiopia also include increased petty commodity production (Abebe, 2007). Off-farm activities can for instance be selling of honey or home made products like mattresses, hot food, beverages, and ropes. Where opportunities exist, working as wage laborers and trading commodities are also common in Ethiopia (Cooper et al., 2008).

Tree planting Temesgen et al. (2014) identified that, tree planting to be one of the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Vegetation like trees and grass are valuable because the roots protect the soil from erosion. Trees are valuable during floods and

droughts, and many trees together will give lower temperatures in the near area a fresh air and also shadow.

Soil and water conservation One of the adaptation strategies found in Temesgen et al (2014) research in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia was soil conservation. Many areas of Ethiopia are mountainous and crop fields are rarely flat. Often they are located in a hill side or in a valley side. This creates extra demand for soil and water conservation to prevent the soil and rainwater from being washed away. Terraces are often built together with soil bunds, stone bunds, deep trenches and special rainwater harvesting methods. Those are the most common strategies to conserve soil and water in the field. Soil and water conservation strategies are mainly used because of soil degradation and soil erosion, and because farmers due to this, want to rehabilitate their fields. Today these activities are increasingly important because climate change to some extent is accelerating these processes.

2.7.2. Ethiopia government policy response to climate change

Ethiopia has ratified the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol in April 1994 and 1997 respectively. It has also designated institutions to follow up the implementation of the environmental and climate issues in the country (Dawit & Habtamu, 2011). Over the last two decades, the Ethiopian government has put in place a number of policies, strategies and laws that are designed to support sustainable development. The country has developed and implemented a wide range of legal policy and institutional frameworks on environment, water, forests, climate change and biodiversity (César & Ekbom, 2013). Among others, the Environment Policy of Ethiopia (EPE) and the Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia (CSE) approved in 1997 enabled the country to develop specific mechanisms to fulfill its obligations regarding the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Ethiopia‟s National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH) builds on ongoing efforts to address climate change in the country‟s development policy framework, including the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy and the second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), as well as sectorial climate resilience strategies and regional and municipal adaptation plans. Its goal is to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience.

NAP-ETH aims to strengthen holistic integration of climate change adaptation in Ethiopia‟s long-term development pathway, supported by effective institutions and governance structures, finance for implementation and capacity development and strengthened systems for disaster risk management and integration among different sectors. The plan and its implementation are guided by the principles of participation, coherent interventions, stakeholder empowerment, gender sensitivity, equitable implementation and partnership.

Ethiopian government plans to move action on climate change adaptation forward by developing and implementing this National Adaptation Plan (NAP), in an effort to bring about transformational change in the country‟s capacity to address the impacts of climate change. The current efforts to develop this NAP are in compliance with Ethiopia‟s obligations under the Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Framework recommended that countries formulate a NAP as a means of identifying medium and long-term adaptation needs and strategies, and mandate institutional responsibility for the effective implementation of NAP strategies and programs to address those needs (CRGE, 2019).

The country embarked on a Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) initiative, a key plan in the wider and even more ambitious Growth and Transformation Plan, GTP (MoFED, 2010). This plan seeks to enable an economic transformation to middle income status by 2025. The CRGE is receiving substantial support from UK Aid, South Korea, Japan and the UNDP (Leulseged, et al, 2013).Government and development agencies are now emphasizing that future agriculture development should be „climate smart‟, enabling systems that are more resilient and adaptive to climate change. The basic concept is of a system that maintains or increases production of foods or other crops, supports livelihoods and sustains environmental resources and ecosystems, adapts to existing and future climate, sequesters carbon and/or reduces GHG emissions (Beddington et al, 2012).

The Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority is also leading the process to ensure effectiveness of the climate agenda in a coordinated yet decentralized manner. In its national response, EPA will build on the existing climate change policies and strategies: (1) the National Adaptation Framework Program, comprising of 20 vulnerable sectors and groups is

developed, negotiated and accepted with some modifications, and (2) the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) of Ethiopia, which comprises of various sectors and 83 concrete projects has been registered by the Secretariat of the UNFCCC in line with the Copenhagen Accord.

The country is also synthesizing the existing strategic policies and thinking of the government with the sole objective of facilitating the national process to construct a carbon neutral/climate resilient economy (CNCR Ethiopia). The aim of the program is to put in place strategic and action oriented framework that enables Ethiopia to respond effectively to climate change starting from the lowest effective administrative unit. It is expected to provide strategic directions and guidance on how and what elements should be mainstreamed into Ethiopia‟s core socio-economic development programs in order to construct a carbon neutral/climate resilient economy (Dawit and Habtamu, 2011).

It is critically important to understand better the role of institutions in shaping adaptation, especially the role of local institutions, if adaptation to climate change is to help the most vulnerable social groups. Adaptation to climate change is highly local and its effectiveness depends on local and extra-local institutions through which incentives for individual and collective action are structured. Not only have existing institutions affected how rural residents responded to environmental challenges in the past, they are also the fundamental mediating mechanisms that will translate the impact of external interventions to facilitate adaptation to climate change (Agrawal, 2008).

According to Agrawal (2008), states that local institutions structure livelihood impacts of climate hazards through a range of indispensable functions they perform in rural contexts. Institutional functions include information gathering and dissemination, resource mobilization and allocation, skills development and capacity building, providing leadership, and relating to other decision makers and institutions. Each of these functions can be disaggregated further, but the extent to which any given institution performs the above functions depends greatly on the objectives with which the institution was formed, and the problems it has come to address over the course of its existence.

2.8. Conceptual framework

This study is aimed at assessing the impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods and the responses of rural people to the effects of climate change and variability. Communities and households face climate related stresses such as increased surface temperature, changes in the timing and amount of rainfall, hail storms, floods, droughts, wind instability etc. (IPCC, 2007). Thus, the lives and livelihood assets of the rural community are under such threats and their associated consequences.

Figure 2. 3 Sustainable rural livelihood framework: adapted from Carney, 1998 cited in Dawit and Habtamu, 2011.

The institutions and processes operating from the household to national level determine an individuals‟ household‟ s or communities‟ access to assets, livelihood options, and thereby affect the vulnerability to climate change impacts. As reported by different researchers, Deresa et al. (2008), Yusuf et al. (2008), there are many climate change adaptation livelihood strategies,

including changes in crop variety and planting dates, crop diversification, irrigation development, water harvesting, tree planting, herd splitting, herd mobility, cattle breeding, migration, etc. Therefore, understanding the diverse and dynamic rural livelihoods strategies helps to identify appropriate intervention (adaptation measures) so as to improve the wellbeing of livelihood out comes.

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. Description of the study area

3.1.1. Location

Merhabete is one of the 24 rural woredas of North Shewa zone in the Amhara region. The administrative center for Merhabete woreda is Alem Ketema town; which is, 189 km far from Northwest of Addis Ababa (National capital), 589 km far from Bahir Dar city the regional capital, of the Amhara region and 142 km, away from Debre Berhan, the capital of North Shewa zone, to the west. It located geographically in between 9º 50′ -10° 10′ N, 38° 42′ - 39º 20′ E. Merhabete is bordered on the south by Ensaro woreda, which separates it by Jema river, on the west by the Oromia region, on the north by Mida Woremo woreda, which separates it by Wonichite river, on the south east by Moretna Jiru bounded with Jema river and on the east it bordered with Menze keya Gebreal woreda. Merhabete woreda has a total area of 99,540 hectare, which comprises of 23 rural and 4 urban kebeles.

Figure 3. 1 Location map of the study area. Source: Ethio-GIS 2015.

3.1.2. Biophysical conditions

The study woreda is characterized by highly mountainous, dissected and terrain nature; dominated by lots of ups and downs with slopes ranging from steep to almost flat. A considerable range (60%) of the area has a rugged mountainous characteristics and undulating slopes in nature. Only 20% of the area is plain (MWADO 2019). According to the woreda Agricultural development office, 40% of the land is characterized by hills, 20% as mountainous, 15% as gorge, 20% as plain and 5% others. These figures could show us the woreda is rugged and mountainous. Its elevation ranges from 1300 to 3200 meters. The agro ecological zone of the woreda is classified in to three traditionally categorized groups: - Woyna-Dega, which accounts for 70 percent of the area coverage, Dega, which covers 6 percent of the woreda and Kola, covers 24 percent of the woreda area (MWADO, 2019).

There are three seasons in the woreda. These include, the dry season („Bega' from October to February), the big rainy season („Kiremt' from June to September), and the small rainy season ('Belg' from March to May). Merhabete receives its rainfall from the two seasons 'kiremt' and 'Belg'. The average rainfall of the woreda ranges between 700-1200mm per annum. On the other hand, the temperature of the woreda varies from place to place due to altitudinal effect. The mean annual range of temperature is higher for kebeles or places along lower altitude and gorges of the two rivers Jama and Wenichite. However, the average temperature of the Woreda ranges from 14.4°c to 23°c (MWADO, 2019).

According to MWADO (2019), the major soil types in Merhabete woreda are red, brown and black; constitutes about 15%, 75% and 8% of the total area respectively. The remaining 2% of the area is covered with gray soil. Brown soils are the dominant soil type in the area.

According to the information obtained from MWADO (2019), land use system of the area shows the following pattern. Out of the estimated total land area of 99,540 hectare; 42,089 hectare (42%) is cultivated land, 3,151 hectare (3%) is used for grazing, 32,947 hectare (33%) is covered with natural forest and shrubs, 6,700 hectare (7%) is allocated for residential and infrastructure development, and 14,653 hectare (15%) is not suitable for any economical purpose.

There are two perennial river, rivers Jima and Wenichite drain toward Abay river all year round . The rest are seasonal and intermittent in nature. There are also some 160 springs which are suitable sources of drinking water and 18 springs are suitable for small irrigation schemes. According to woreda water and energy office 38 springs that used before for drinking water are shrivel/died within the last ten years. Patterns of vegetation of the area vary with agro ecology zone. The types of vegetation in the area include, wanza, omedila, gravilia, geba, shefere, shiferawu, tid, acacia, shrubs and eucalyptus plantations (MWADO, 2019). However, their area coverage is very small due to deforestation and agricultural expansion except eucalyptus trees, and remnants of natural forests found around the churches.

3.1.3. Demography and socio-economic characteristics

Merhabete woreda has a total population of 119,614 of which 62,926 (53%) are males and 56,688(47%) are females, from those 113,678 (95%) are rural settler and 5,936 (5%) are urban dweller (CSA, 2013) and from a total household heads of 21,489, male headed household are 20,211 and female headed household are 1,278. Productive people include males 32,997 and females 33,029 mainly a total of 66,026. Population density of the woreda was 134.1 persons per square kilometer. Compared to the zonal level population density (i.e. 134.4 persons/Km2), the woreda has relatively the same figure. However, it is higher from the regional figure (i.e.120.1 persons/Km2) (CSA, 2013). Merhabete woreda is entirely inhabited by the Amhara people. It also further states that Orthodox Christianity is the dominant religion representing almost all (98.3%) of the population.

Regarding distribution of towns, schools, and health services; Merhabete has 1 woreda town and 1 smaller town. According to woreda education office Merhabete has 53 schools, of which 49 primary, 3 secondary and 1 preparatory schools. Health office also indicates that Merhabete has 1 general hospital, 5 clinics and 23 health posts distributed in each kebele. In addition the area has 21 veterinary posts with very limited function. The development of infrastructure in the area is low; the area has 84.21 km all-weather and 21.09 km seasonal roads, only used in winter. After 2009, the woreda has started using electric power and wireless phone.

3.1.4. Livelihood system of Merhabete woreda

The livelihood of the people in the district depends mainly on mixed farming (crop and livestock production). Crop production is entirely rain-fed, except in very specific and small areas where vegetables are cultivated based on traditional and small-scale irrigation. Dominantly growing crops in the study area include sorghum, wheat, barley, maize, bean and pea, chickpea, vetch, linseed, wool, teff, neug,masho and abish (MWADO, 2019). None of these crops could grown without chemical fertilizer application since natural fertilizer of the soil is decline. Land preparation is carried on using mainly ox-plowing but tilling by hand occurs in the hilly areas on steeply sloping lands. Recently crop productivity is very low as the result of climate variability especially absence of rainfall in belg season that help crops need long growing seasons, like sorghum , late coming early withdrawal of rain fall at summer season and unseasonal rain fall during harvesting time.

Population growth, land scarcity and land degradation, low crop productivity and lack of grazing land many people involve seasonal migration to Addis Ababa, Alem Ketema, Mizan, Wonije, Wulkite and in different part of the country to subsidize their livelihoods through daily laborer and farming of contract lands from other nation. Livestock play an important role in livelihood of the area. The most manifested problem of livestock production in the area is shortage of grazing land and feed. The number of domestic animals found in the woreda include: Cattle (99,338), sheep and Goats (71,585) and Poultry (670,427), Beehives (5,384). Depletion of ground and surface water, land degradation, pest infestation and livestock diseases are among the other problems in the study area (MWADO, 2019).

3.2 Research design

This study employed cross sectional research design to assesses the overall activities of impact of CCV on rural livelihood and community response in Merhabete woreda with numerous population characteristics at one specific point in time and also make inferences about a population based on the result of the sample. In the study, both qualitative and quantitative data collection method were employed.

In the quantitative aspect, household survey was used to collect relevant data from selected households. For this purpose, the questionnaire focused on household social characteristics, income, livelihood system, physical resources, risks and coping strategies. Most of the questions were structured and some open-ended questions were also included. Qualitative method was also applied to be identify the impact of CCV on their livelihood and to understand people‟s response to it. In this case, key informant interview, focus group discussion and observation were employed.

3.3. Sample size and sampling technique

Sampling technique was used to select the representative sample from the total population under the study. In order to select sample kebeles and households, multi stage sampling techniques have been employed. In the first stage, the woreda kebeles were assigned in to three distinct agro ecologic conditions such as Dega, Woyine Dega and Kola using stratified random sampling. In the second stage , the three kebeles namely Gewu Mergazi from Dega, Ofina Sibewasha from Woyine Dega and Goranida Mariam Serika from Kola were selected based on simple random sampling (lottery) method. Then from the three kebeles with a total population of 12,249 and from those populations 2,311 house holders were living in these three kebeles, because of similar characters in their livelihood, the researcher has selected 138 households through purposive sampling method from the three kebeles for questionnaire survey. The sampling procedure considered different parameters such as wealth status, male and females headed households.

Table 3. 1 Distribution of sample households Kebeles Elevation Agroecology No of Sample HHHs Total in meter households Male Female Gewu Mergazi 2800 Dega 723 34 9 43 Ofina Sibewasha 2100 Woyine Dega 782 37 10 47 Goranida Mariam 1300 Kola 806 37 11 48 Serika Total 2311 108 30 138 Source: Kebele Administration Office, 2019

Participants in focused group discussions (FGD) were selected using purposive sampling, based on age and living for a long period of time in the area. Thus, it is held with a few knowledgeable elder, religious leader and individuals of the communities. In one focus group discussion six (6) persons participated in each kebeles. The participants were two female and four male. The key informant interview were conducted with development agents (3), local leaders (3), model farmers (3) and 1 woreda agricultural development office representative, who lived in area before 10 years.

3.4. Data sources

The data required for the study were obtained from both primary and secondary sources. The primary information has been collected through questionnaire, key informant interview and focused group discussion. Secondary data were collected using available sources of information such as published and unpublished documents. This includes datas from National Meteorology Agency, Central Statistical Agency, Merhabete woreda agricultural office and from Merhabete woreda administration office.

3.5. Instruments of data collection

To get more information from the selected sources, the researcher was used the following data collection instrument:

3.5.1. Questionnaire

Close ended and open ended format questions has been prepared and interviewed to the selected households to get information about the impact of CCV on their livelihood and adaptations measure practice. The questionnaire was prepared in English and translated in to Amharic language. It was also pretested (conduct pilot survey) to check its validity and reliability. Because of this able to refine the questionnaires based on the experience gained during the pretest, and its help to avoid missing value and adjust skipping rule of the questionnaires. The closed ended format questions enabled the respondents to select one option that best meet the reviews, while the open ended question was included in order to give opportunity to the respondents to express their perceives and feeling concerning the problem under study.

Figure 3. 2 Conducting interviews with selected participants at study area

3.5.2. Key informant interview

The researcher used semi structured interview method because of its flexibility and makes clear any time when there is ambiguity. The key informant interview was conducted from kebele agriculture development agents, local leaders, model farmers and agriculture development officer, about the impact of CCV on rural livelihood and their response in the study area.

Figure 3. 3 key informant interviews with woreda agriculture office team leader

3.5.3. Focused group discussion

Focus group discussion (FGD) helps to generate data on group dynamics, and allows a small group of respondents to guide by a skilled moderator, to focus on key issue of the research topic (Mwanje, 2001). The researcher selected six respondents in each kebele from different social groups and are known to have better know how on the present and past environmental, social and economic status of the study area. At each kebele, one focus group discussion was held. The focus group discussions were made with few knowledgeable elder, religious leader and individuals of the communities. The main purpose of focus group discussion was to understand the level of perception of the people about climate change impacts, its cause and their responses. The major discussion topics were on the local community understanding of CCV, its impact on their livelihood, major hazards and adaptation strategies employed by the community.

Figure 3. 4 Photos during focus group discussion at natural resource conservation site

3.5.4. Field observation

Observation was made as supportive or supplementary technique to collect data that can complement or set in perspective the data obtained by other means (NRC, 1995). During my stay in the study area, the researcher was able to observe various environmental changes. The researcher observed changes in agro-ecology, vegetation covers, other topographic features, development interventions and people‟s response to CCV by using checklists and captured photographs as evidence.

3.6. Methods of data analysis and interpretation

Quantitative data generated from questionnaire has been analyzed by using statistical package for social science (SPSS) and Stata software. SPSS analysis methods such as, descriptive statistical methods (frequency, cross tabulation and descriptive statistics), compare mean (one way ANOVA), correlation (bivariate) and regression (multiple-linear regression) were used for multiple responses. Descriptive statistics such as mean, frequency and percentage are used to explain and describe the final result of the study. The processed results of the study summarized and presented by various table, bar graph and pie chart. In order to confirm whether there is significant difference between different variables towards adaptation to CCV among farmers education level, age, sex and others, chi-square test, one way ANOVA and correlate bivariate has been computed and used. The meteorological data were calculated using coefficient of variability (CV), standardized rainfall anomaly (SRA) and precipitation concentration index (PCI). SRA values and the corresponding drought severity classes are computed as follows (Agnew and Chappel 1999); SRA = (Pt − Pm)/ σ (1) Where SRA = standardized rainfall anomaly, Pt = annual rainfall in year t, Pm = is long-term mean annual rainfall over a period of observation and σ = standard deviation of annual rainfall over the period of observation. The drought severity classes based on SRA are, extreme drought (SRA < -1.65), severe drought (-1.28 > SRA > -1.65), moderate drought (-0.84 > SRA > -1.28) and no drought (SRA > -0.84).

The precipitation concentration index (PCI) was applied as indicated in Oliver (1980); PCI=100× [∑Pi2/ (∑Pi) 2] (2) Where: Pi = the rainfall amount of the ith month, pi2= square root of ith months of rainfall and Σ Pi2 = summation square root of ith months. PCI ≤ 10 indicate uniform precipitation distribution, PCI- 10 ≤ 15 moderate precipitation distribution, PCI- 16 ≤ 20 irregular precipitation distribution and PCI >20 strong irregularity of precipitation distribution.

The qualitative information gathered using; focus group discussion, open ended questions, and key informant interview were analyzed and interpreted using qualitative techniques. Errors related to inconsistency of data were checked and corrected during data cleaning.

CHAPTER FOUR

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This chapter discusses and presents observation results of CCV, local communities perception of climate change, impacts of climate change on their livelihood, adaptation practices and barriers to adaptation in the study area based on results obtained from household interviews, rainfall and temperature records and qualitative information generated from various groups of the community and concerned officials through FGDs and interviews.

4.1. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the respondents

In this part, the general profile of the respondent households is presented. This includes sex, age, marital status; educational level and household size under each household were discussed.

4.1.1. Age and sex composition of the sample household heads

As shown in table 4.1 below, out of the total 138 HHHs 43(31.2%) were from Gewu Merigaze kebele, which is situated in Dega agro-ecologic condition, 47(34%) of them from Ofina Sibiwasha kebele , which is Woyine-Dega and the remaining 48(34.8%) respondents were from Goranda Mariam Serika kebele , which has Kola agro-ecological condition.

Table 4. 1 Age and sex composition of the sample household heads Sample kebele Gewu Ofina Goranda Variables Merigaze Sibiwasha Mariam Serika Total Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Male HHHs 34 79.1 37 78.7 37 77.1 108 78.3

Sex Female HHHs 9 20.9 10 21.3 11 22.9 30 21.7 Total 43 100% 47 100% 48 100% 138 100% 20-40 10 23.3 13 27.7 14 29.2 37 26.8 Age 41-60 25 58.1 26 55.3 24 50 75 54.3 >60 8 18.6 8 17 10 20.8 26 18.8 Total 43 100% 47 100% 48 100% 138 100% Source: Field survey, (2020)

From the total HHHs included in the sample, 30 (21.7%) were female-headed and 108 (78.3%) were male-headed households. The sex composition of the survey indicates that, from Gewu Merigaze (79.1%) were male and (20.9%) were female headed households. The remaining two kebeles, Ofina Sibiwasha and Goranda Mariam Serika took 78.7% and 77.1% of male and 21.3% and 22.9% of female household heads were sampled respectively. Accordingly, around ¾ of the sample household are male headed and only ¼ of the households are female headed. This shows that most of the households in the woreda are male headed.

According to Santrock (2011) age group categorization, the age of the HHHs is categorized in three stages, from 20-40 young, 41-60 adult and >60 are elders. Based on this from the total households 26.8 % are young, 54.3% are adult, 18.8% are mature and old aged. According to the survey, the majority of the sample households are in the category of adult which is 41-60 years old, which is followed by young age group in between 20-40 years old. This entails most of surveyed HHHs are economically active; it can be assumed that they know the area and environmental problems very well.

In order to assess whether there is association between sex of the HHHs and hearing about CCV before, chi-square test has been employed. Accordingly Ho is stated as there is no significant difference between hearings about CCV among different sex of the HHHs.

Table 4. 2 Chi-square test for hearing about CCV * Sex of the household head Count and percent

Sex of the household head Hearing about CCV before Male Female Total Yes Count 67 12 79 % 84.8% 15.2% 100.0% No Count 41 18 59 % 69.5% 30.5% 100.0% Total Count 108 30 138 % 78.3% 21.7% 100.0%

Chi-Square Tests

Value df Asymptotic significance Pearson chi-square 4.659a 1 .031 Likelihood ratio 4.621 1 .032 N of valid cases 138 a. 0 cells (0.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 12.83. Source: Computed field survey data, (2020).

As it is shown in Table 4.2, the calculated Pearson chi-square test reveals that precision level is 0.031 with 95% confidence level and 0.05 acceptable error was determined as significance level to accept or reject Ho. Accordingly, null hypothesis would be rejected as (0.031<0.05). Therefore, the computed test statistics shows a significant difference between hearing about CCV and sex of the household head of respondents. There is a real relationship between variables. This implies that sex of the household head of farmers and hearing about CCV are not independent. It clearly indicates that, the proverb “Males to court Females to kitchen (in Amharic ወንዶች በችሎት ሴቶች በማጀት)” way of thought were present until know in the study area.

4.1.2. Family structure and marital status of the sample household

Among the total respondents 2.9% of them were single, 76.1% married, 7.2% divorced and 13.8% were widowed. When it comes to kebele level, in Gewu Merigaze keble 2.3% were single, 76.7% married, 7% divorced and 14% were widowed. In case of Ofina Sibiwasha kebele 4.3% were single, 78.7% married, 8.5% divorced and 8.5% were widowed. And from Goranda Mariam Serika kebele 2.1% were single, 72.9% married, 6.3% and 18.8% were divorced and widowed respectively. This shows that majority of the household heads in the three kebeles are married and it indicates proportionally the same figures. The number of widowed is relatively high in Goranda Mariam Serika kebeles that of kola agro ecology than other kebeles. The proportion of single is very few in both kebeles.

Most of the females that headed houses are either widowed or divorced. In such cases, they become responsible for all works inside and outside the house. They are taking care of children, fetching water, collecting firewood and cooking food. Therefore, impacts of climate change create additional burden on women and aggravates their vulnerability because of their low adaptive capacity. This idea is also supported by the study on impact of climate change on the livelihood and vulnerability of the people in west Arsi zone by Abate (2009).

The number of permanent household members is one of the determinant factors in the livelihood of the household. Ahmed (2014) categorize family size divided in to three groups, up to 4 members small, 5-8 medium and more than 8 members are large. Based on Ahmed categorization, the survey result indicates more than half of the sample households that are 60.9% have medium family, 23.2% small and 15.9% have large family size. This indicates that most of the households have medium family size.

As one farmer from FGD noted; “Because of the presence contraceptive method the number of family size reduced from time to time and it create lack of labor in the rural household, which fetch water, collect firewood, look animals and help cultivation of crops”.

Table 4. 3 Marital status and household size of the respondents Sample kebele Gewu Ofina Goranda Variables Merigaze Sibiwasha Mariam Serika Total Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Single 1 2.3 2 4.3 1 2.1 4 2.9

Marital Married 33 76.7 37 78.7 35 72.9 105 76.1 status Divorced 3 7 4 8.5 3 6.3 10 7.2 Widowed 6 14 4 8.5 9 18.8 19 13.8 Total 43 100% 47 100% 48 100% 138 100% ≤4 (Small) 7 16.3 9 19.1 16 33.3 32 23.2 Household 5-8 (medium) 31 72.1 28 59.6 25 52.1 84 60.9 size >8 (large) 5 11.6 10 21.3 7 14.6 22 15.9 Total 43 100% 47 100% 48 100% 138 100% Source: Field survey, (2020)

4.1.3. Educational status

As shown on table 4.4, from the total number of respondents 55.8% illiterate, 31.9% able to read and write, 10.1% of them able to learn primary school and the remaining 2.2% attend secondary school. This shows that majority of the HHHs of the woreda are illiterate or able to read or write; only few of the respondents got an opportunity to learn primary and secondary school. From this, it can be concluded that there is high illiteracy rate among local people of the woreda especially among the adult and above aged people. Illiteracy has its own influence on adaptability, especially to accept new adaptation mechanisms. A number of studies (Temesgen et al, 2014) for example, reported that education increases the probability of adapting to climate change. This is because education is an indispensable tool to easily understand climate information to adjust and develop adaptive capacity to the changing climate.

Table 4. 4 Educational status of household heads Sample kebele Gewu Ofina Goranda Variables Merigaze Sibiwasha Mariam Serika Total Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Illiterate 23 53.5 25 53.2 29 60.4 77 55.8

Capable to 15 34.9 17 36.2 12 25 44 31.9 Educational read &write status Primary 5 11.6 3 6.4 6 12.5 14 10.1 school Secondary 0 0 2 4.3 1 2.1 3 2.2 school Total 43 100% 47 100% 48 100% 138 100% Source: Field survey, (2020)

4.1.5. Land ownership

Land particularly is the most valuable resource and asset in the study area. However, farm lands in the area are fragmented and too small to cover the household annual consumption, expenditure patterns and leads to food insecurity. By this case most household become vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and less capacity to adapt, since the majority of farmers are own very small size of farm land and the income pattern of household owning them are highly vulnerable to the vagarious of weather and economic shocks.

Figure 4. 1 Fragmented and hilly farm land Source: Field observation, (2020).

The survey result shows that, majority 95.7% of them agricultural land holder and only 4.3% landless. The rural farmers divided the land in to small plots for young labor force seeking land for employment creation, and then the size of land is very fragmented and reduced in size. As shown in the table.4.5, before 10 years 52.9% households have greater than 1.5 ha, whereas currently the reverse, half of 68.1% of households has less than 1.5 ha. The same is true before 10 years 20.3% of households who possessed above 2 ha but know only 1.4% households possessed greater than 2 ha. As indicated in table 4.5, the trends of land size ownership from past 10 years it reveals decrement in number of households who possessed greater than 1.5ha and currently increase households who have less than 1.5ha.

Based on the survey result, it can be concluded that from last 10 years onwards the size of land is becomes fragmented and it divide in to small plots of land. The dominant income source in the study area is crop production with fragmented land and rain fed crop production which made them sensitive to CCV.

Table 4. 5 Trends of land holding size of respondents Total size of land before 10 years Total size of land Trends of land currently size ownership starting from past % of Households land Frequency % Frequency % 10 years up to decrement or holding in ha know increment ≤0.5 ha 15 10.9 19 13.8 increased 2.9 0.6-1.5 ha 50 36.2 75 54.3 increased 18.1 1.56-2 ha 45 32.6 42 30.4 decreased 2.2 >2 ha 28 20.3 2 1.4 decreased 18.9 Total 138 100.0 138 100.0 Source: Field survey, (2020).

In order to identify the effect of cropland area size and use of chemical fertilizer with crop production using multiple linear regressions in table 4.6 below indicates that, it is a significant relationship since the precision level of both of them is 0.00 on regression coefficients, that‟s less than the acceptable error 0.05 with 95% confidence level. It indicates strong correlation between the constant and dependent variables. When compared the significance level with the t-test value and B value/slope, both of independent variables are positively predictors with dependent variable (crop production). In the model summary, the adjusted R square 0.462 indicate that 46.2% of the variance of crop production can be explained by size of cropland and use of chemical fertilizer.

Table 4. 6 Effect of cropland size and chemical fertilizer on crop production using multiple linear regressions Coefficients Unstandardized Standardized coefficients coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Constant .356 .189 1.883 .062 Total size of land in ha .595 .075 .510 7.974 .000 Fertilizer used for the year .375 .064 .375 5.855 .000 2011/2012 in kg Dependent variable: Crop production in quintals

Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the Model R R Square Square Estimate 1 .686a .470 .462 .585 a. Predictors: (Constant), Fertilizer used for the year 2011/2012 in kilograms, Total size of land in hectares. Source: Computed field survey data, (2020).

Household heads were also asked about their major source of livelihood, according to their response in Figure 4.2, the majority 77.5% of households were dependent on mixed agriculture (having both crop production and livestock husbandry), 18.1% of respondents depend on crop production only, 1.5% on livestock husbandry and other (2.9%) in petty trade mostly engaged by divorced and windowed females household head, like preparing local beer (Areki and Tela). From the total households 61.6% of respondents practice off-farm activates like Bee keeping, Petty trade and working hand crafts, the remains 38.4% not worked off-farm activates.

Figure 4. 2 Farmers‟ main source of income Source: Field survey, (2020).

4.1.6. Livestock possession of households

As the data on the table 4.7 shows, before some ten years 57.2% livestock possess 6-10 livestock numbers, while currently 69.6 % livestock possess ≤5 livestock number. Before ten years number of livestock greater than 15, accounts 8.7% but currently none of households more than 15 livestock. The mean livestock possession of the respondents before ten years is 2.28 while currently it declined to 1.37. Therefore, it indicates there is a decline in livestock number.

Table 4. 7 Livestock trends before 10 years and currently (2020) in percent Households No of livestock before 10 years Households No of livestock currently

No of livestock % %

≤5 11.6 69.6 6-10 57.2 23.9 11-15 22.5 6.5 >15 8.7 0 Total 100 100

Mean 2.28 1.37

Source: Computed field survey data (2020)

4.2. Local rainfall and temperature variability

4.2.1. Trends and variability of annual and seasonal rainfall

Rainfall and temperature are important meteorological variables that determine water availability, production of crops and livestock rearing or food production processes in countries where agriculture is more dependent on rainfall, (Abebe, 2013). The average annual rain fall of Merhabete woreda in the years 1989-2019, ranges from 716.9mm to 1292.3mm. The average rainfall of the woreda is 1018.3mm in the past three decades.

The inter-annual patterns of rainfall distribution showed that annual amounts below the average were in 1995, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019. The driest year was 2011, which contains the minimum rain fall of all years and the wettest

year was 1990. Analysis of linear trend of annual rainfall indicates a decreasing trend in the station. The amount of rainfall was decreased by about 9.5 mm every year between 1989 and 2019.

As shown in the Figure 4.3 below, the rain fall of the woreda has shown inter annual variability with 15% coefficient of variability and 157.3mm standard deviation, that means in the last 30 years 157.3mm amount of rain fall deviate in a plus or minus from the mean rainfall and erratic over the past years. This variability has also been indicated as a major problem to crop production by households.

Figure 4. 3 Trend of annual rainfall variability Source: NMA station data, 2020

According to Agnew and Chappel 1999, SRA values with the corresponding drought severity classification, and as shown on figure 4.4, the extreme drought years were 1995, 2004,2011,2015,2017 and 2019, the severe drought year 2002 and 2009. The moderate drought years were 1998 and 2001, whereas the remaining years were no drought years.

Figure 4. 4 Trend of standardized rainfall anomaly Source: NMA station data, 2020

According to Oliver (1980) PCI value classification, the woreda PCI value were 21.1 and it greater than 20, there for the rainfall distribution of the woreda is strong irregular precipitation distribution over the past 30 years.

Analysis of Kiremt rain has shown decline trend from 1989 to 2019. According to linear trend in figure 4.5 below, it has decreased by about 1.49 mm every year during the past three decades. On the other hand, both Belg and Bega rain has showed a decreasing trend. While the amount of rainfall for Belg and Bega decreased by 0.26mm and 0.59mm every year respectively. In addition, year to year variability of Kiremt season rainfall was much higher than other seasons.

When the researcher compute the coefficient of variance and standard deviation, Kiremt rainfall varies 18% with standard deviation 149mm, which means 149mm of amount of rainfall, was deviated in plus or minus from the mean rainfall 845.4mm. Similarly, the mean rainfall of Belg and Bega was 133.96mm and 70.83mm which 71.5mm of Belg and 59.5mm of Bega rainfall deviated from the mean. The coefficient of variability of rainfall was 53% for Belg and 84% for Bega. Therefore, the variable and reduced Kiremt and Belg precipitation has a critical implication on rural livelihoods.

Figure 4. 5 Seasonal rainfall variability Source: NMA station data, 2020

When annual and seasonal rainfall test statistically in table 4.8 below, the annual and Bega rainfall shows statistically significant decreasing trend at p = 0.01 level and also the Kiremt rainfall indicate significant decreasing trend with p = 0.05 level. But the Belg rainfall shows statistically non-significant decreasing trends. This result was also supplemented by the information of households and FGD participants.

Table 4. 8 Trends of annual and seasonal rainfall Rainfall Annual Rf Kiremt Rf Belg Rf Bega Rf

Pearson correlation -.547** -.365* -.100 -.459**

Sig. .001 .043 .593 .009

**. Significant at the 0.01 level. *. Significant at the 0.05 level. Source: Computed NMA station data, (2020)

4.2.2. Temperature

According to NMA (2007), the average annual minimum temperature over the country has increased by about 0.37oc, whereas, average annual maximum temperature has increased by about 0.1oc every decade. Similarly, increase in inter annual temperature is observed in the study area. The average yearly maximum temperature of the woreda was 24.52oc, while the average

minimum temperature of 14.11oc. As indicated in Figure 4.6, the average maximum temperature of Merhabete woreda over the past 30 years increased by about 0.06 degree centigrade annually, while average minimum temperature is decreasing by 0.03 degree centigrade. But the annual average temperature indicate still increasing trend by 0.015oc annually. Therefore, trend shows that the maximum temperature of the woreda is increasing and will continue in its increasing trend in the future.

30.00 y = 0.0609x + 24.356 R² = 0.4508 25.00 y = 0.0153x + 19.247 R² = 0.0491 20.00 Max Temp Min Temp 15.00 Average

y = -0.0302x + 14.138 Linear ( Max Temp) 10.00 R² = 0.0655 Linear (Min Temp) Linear (Average) 5.00

0.00

Figure 4. 6 Annual average maximum and minimum temperature pattern of the study area Source: NMA station data, (2020)

The maximum temperature shows warming trend in the district for the period 1989-2019 with nearly strong positive relation with increasing year and statistically significant with 0.00 coefficient at p = 0.01 level. In the contrary the minimum temperature show statistically non- significant with decreasing trends but the average temperature increase insignificantly. The result also supported by household‟s perceived climatic condition. The overall analysis of rainfall and temperature from the station indicates that, rainfall will be expected to decrease and temperature on the contrary expected to increase. These changes pose major challenges on the rural populations‟ livelihood especially on agriculture.

Table 4. 9 Trends of maximum and minimum temperature Temperature Max Temp Min Temp Ave Temp

** .222 Pearson correlation .671 -.256

Sig. .000 .165 .231 **. Significant at the 0.01 level. Source: Computed NMA station data, (2020).

4.3. Local indicators of climate change and variability

Indication of climate change can be assessed mainly in terms of variations in temperature and precipitation (IPCC 2014). Accordingly, from the total surveyed HHHs, 29.7% of the respondent‟s responded that rain fall variability were the most common climatic characteristics of the area and 25.4% HHHs said that increase in temperature as the major indication of climate change. While 18.8% HHHs claimed that occurrence of new crop pests, weeds and diseases in the area told as an indication. The remaining 17.4%, 5.8% and 2.9% of the sample household respondent responded that recurrent drought and grow of new plant species , prevalence of newly introduced human and animal disease, dry up of river and streams respectively observed in the area (See, Figure.4.7).

Generally out of the total respondent more than half responded that decrease in rainfall amount with slightly decreasing trend and increasing temperature considered as indication of climate change. Therefore, erratic variation of rain fall with slightly decreasing trend that resulted in a sharp drop in precipitation and higher temperature conditions create challenge in day to day life of the community in the area.

Figure 4. 7 Local indicator of climate change and variability Source: Field survey, (2020).

FGD and key informant interview participant reported that: “There is CCV in our woreda from past one decade onwards. Some of the indicators were increase in temperature, rainfall variability, outbreak of new pests, weeds and crop diseases, and amount of spring water decrement observed in the area. In FGD participant said repeatedly that Some years before, the Belg rainy season start drop in March, but now there is no Belg rain around ten years left and also the main rainy( Meher) season rain comes late(end week of July) and goes early around first week of September”.

4.3.1. Timing of rainfall and variability

According to FAO, (2011) prediction, the wet areas are expected to be wetter and the dry areas in the tropics are expected to be drier as a result of climate change. The intensity of rain storms could increase in some areas and rain becomes unreliable and unpredictable. In agreement with this prediction, almost all of the respondents reported that there is a change in the amount and timing of rain fall in the study area and it is adversely impacting crop production. It was clear to farmers that rains are becoming more erratic and coming later going earlier in the cropping

seasons. This idea supported by majority respondents, 79.7% of the surveyed HHHs agreed that the main rainy season comes very late and goes early in September that increasing moisture stress, making cultivation difficult and eventually causes crop failure, while 16.7% of the respondents said that the rain comes and goes early. Only 3.6% of HHHs responded that the rain comes early and goes late.

Timing of rainfall

100.0 79.7 50.0 3.6 16.7 0.0 Percent Percent Comes early and goes late Comes and goes early Comes late and goes early

Figure 4. 8 Timing of rainfall in Merhabete woreda Source: Field survey, (2020).

4.4. Perceived impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihood

Most people follow traditional cultivation practices that rely on seasonal rain water. Erratic rainfall patterns and hailstorm contributing to soil erosion, soil fertility loss and crop damage are having an adverse impact on livelihoods of most of these communities, thus increase food insecurity. Climate change and variability had serious impacts on livestock and crop production in Merhabete woreda. Climate change is likely to impact on crop productivity directly through changes in the growing environment, but also indirectly through prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, associated impacts on soil fertility and biological function. The rain fed yield changes are driven by both precipitation and temperature changes. As IPCC (2014) concluded, slight warming decreases yields in seasonally dry and low-latitude regions. Climate variability affects virtually all aspects of agricultural and other water-intensive activities and has impact on a large proportion of households, with far-reaching consequences throughout the economy.

Like in most rural parts of Ethiopia, the source of livelihood in the study area (Merhabete woreda), is agriculture. Therefore, unreliable and erratic rainfall during the rainy season results in

loss of upper most and fertile soil, decrease soil fertility through soil erosion and this eventually leads to decrease in crop yield and food insecurity.

In figure 4.9, as the survey result shows 55.8% respondents crop yield reduction is the major challenge of CCV, whereas 15.9% of respondents respond that flooding with erosion of farm and irrigable lands, and lightning affect their live when the summer season comes. The rest 13.8%, 8% and 6.5% result shows occurrence of new crop, animal and human disease, shortage of pasture for animals and shortage of water supply because of CCV affect their livelihood.

Impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihood

6.5% 8.0% Shortage of pasture for animals 15.9% Crop yield reduction Occurance of new disease

Flooding and erosion of farm 13.8% lands Shortage of water supply 55.8%

Figure 4. 9 Perceived impact of climate change and variability on rural livelihood. Source: Field survey, (2020).

4.4.1. Impact of climate change on crop production

During drought and delay in the onset of rain land becomes dry and difficult to plough, forage deficit leads to weakness and oxen mortality (engine of subsistent cultivation), and lack of precipitation hinders seed cultivation and germination of cultivated seeds. (Abate, 2009). The household survey indicates that, the major 73.2% of respondents reported the effects of CCV as a major cause for crop yield reduction, around 22.5% of the respondents said the change and variability of the climate system has an adverse effect on long season crops, like sorghum which require lengthy rainy season to attain maturity, the change in the timing and decreased precipitation, as the main Meher rains goes so early these crops face moisture stress to get

matured. While 4.3% of the surveyed HHHs responded that there is no change in crop yield due to climate change or variability. This implies that erratic rainfall affects land preparation, seed germination, and crop growth stunt; its lead for crop yield failure.

The KII participants reported that: “Rain fall pattern is disturbed and became very scares and erratic, unseasonal rain, pest infection and the fertility of the soil especially those of the cultivated land has reached to the point of infertility where it cannot become productive even farmer used agriculture inputs. The combined effect of these factors have resulted a sever crop yield reduction. Consequently, this has induced for food insecurity”.

150 101 73.2 100

22.5 50 4.3 6 31 Percent 0

Decrease in crop Frequency yield No change in production Decrease of long Frequency cycle crops Percent

Figure 4. 10 Observed change in crop production Source: Field survey, (2020).

4.4.2. Impacts of climate change on livestock husbandry

Drought and delay in the onset of rainfall led to poor grass regeneration/forage deficit, water shortage and heat stress on livestock, and consequently increased the mortality of livestock, vulnerability to diseases and physical deterioration due to long distance travel for water and pastures(Abate,2009). According to the survey data, majority (98.6%) of the respondents said that the number of livestock production decreased from before one decade onwards. While only 1.4% responds that it increased know. In line with these the researcher asked the reason for livestock number decrement, from the total respondents 50.7% respond that lack of grazing land

that forced as to decrease our livestock in number. While 26.1% replied that lack of fodder for animals affect the livestock production. The remaining 14.5% and 8.7 % said livestock disease and shortage of water for animals were the main reason for decreasing livestock in number.

Members of FGD also pointed out that:- “Before 10 and 15 years, the woreda was known in production of honey but now because of the spray of herbicide chemicals, the production reached almost at zero level. Most farmers are engaged in crop cultivation and their farming system is traditional by using ox, the number of ox per household decreased from time to time since there is no cows that replace, and know reached plough plow in pair with other households. The other point the participant told that the communal grazing land became closure area by local government administration; know all cattle live at home by throwing little fodder. In agreement with survey data the participant respond that lack of grazing land, shortage of adequate fodder and underfeeding of livestock have forced to sell, exposed to disease and death associated with drought and climate stress were the main challenge in livestock husbandry”.

Table 4. 10 Impacts of climate change and variability on livestock Kebele of respondents Gewu Ofina Goranda Variables Merigaze Sibiwasha Mariam Serika Total Livestock husbandry in the area N % N % N % N % Increased 1 2.3 1 2.1 0 0 2 1.4 Decreased 42 97.7 46 97.9 48 100 136 98.6 Total 43 100 47 100 48 100 138 100 Reason for livestock decrement N % N % N % N % Livestock disease 5 11.6 4 8.5 11 22.9 20 14.5 lack of grazing land 22 51.2 25 53.2 23 47.9 70 50.7 Shortage of water for animal's 4 9.3 4 8.5 4 8.3 12 8.7 lack of fodder for animals 12 27.9 14 29.8 10 20.8 36 26.1 Total 43 100 47 100 48 100 138 100 Source: Field survey, (2020).

4.4.3. Impacts of climate change on water availability

In supply of pure water all year round, the respondents were asked their accessibility to sufficient pure drinking water, the respondent said that more than 71.7% respondents replied „No‟ from these in Goranda Mariam Serika kebele (Kola agro ecology) all respondents said not able to get sufficient water in the whole year especially in winter season, very difficult to get water from hand pump, because of drought it became dry up and forced to use river and unprotected springs as a means of drinking water, while the remaining 28.3% of the respondents said „Yes‟ largely in Ofina Sibiwasha kebele (Woyina Dega agro ecology) the people use spring water to drink yearly round. This implies that most of the households living in the area are suffering for shortage of water. The source of water for most of rural households, according to their response 66.7% were from protected spring water, 18.1% were unprotected springs, 13% were from river and only 2.2% of the respondents get from ponds.

In line with the sample household responses, the Merhabete woreda water resource development office assure that, because of drought and landslide before ten years onward thirty eight well protected spring waters dried up. The effort made by the government to provide pure water for the rural community constrained by CCV in the area.

From the Pearson‟s coefficient of correlation in table 4.11 below, it conclude that adaptation strategies, coping mechanisms, access to credits and get early warning information of households were negative relationship, which means adaptation and coping strategies increase while the impact of CCV inversely decreased. Whereas barriers to adapt the impact of CCV had positive correlation with impacts, means barriers to adapt increases at the same time impacts on rural livelihood increases. Even if the correlation coefficient is weak, the researcher conclude that adaptation and coping strategies could minimize the potential impact of CCV but constraints to adapt the impact of CCV exacerbate the situations.

Table 4. 11 Correlations direction of impact of CCV on rural livelihood with adaptation and other variables Pearson‟s coefficient correlations Get early Adaptation Coping Access to warning Barriers to strategies to mechanisms credits information adapt the Impact of CCV on minimize to overcome during CCV before impact of rural livelihood risk vulnerability hazards occurrence CCV Pearson -.192* -.076 -.127 -.097 .125 correlation Sig. .024 .373 .139 .257 .144 N 138 138 138 138 138 *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level. Source: Computed field survey, (2020)

4.5. Vulnerability of the community to climate shocks

The survey data reveals that 42.8% of the leading shocks were crop pests, weeds and diseases, especially the coming of locust during the cropping seasons, the invasion of new weeds and pests test largely the food security of the community‟s. Whereas 23.9% of respondents claimed that erratic rain fall with flooding and rain fall variability were current climate shocks that main cause for crop yield redaction. The remains recurrent drought and others like lightning, snake, fox, monkey etc. take 8% and 1.4% respectively. Community perception, views and opinions regarding CCV matters both in designing mitigation policies as well as formulating adaptation strategies are very important. In line with this idea, farmers were asked whether they perceived long term CCV in their area. Accordingly, 55.8% of the respondents replied that the climate has totally changed and the rest 44.2% respond that shows climate variability in their locality.

4.5.1. Causes of climate change and variability

According to the survey data ,25.4% respondents replied that deforestation is the leading driving cause of CCV related problem due to forest clearing for fuel purpose and increasing demand of agricultural land, which followed by 24.6% low fertility of agricultural land which worsened the negative effects of CCV that hide by chemical fertilizer. From the total respondents 23.9% consider climate change as an act of God, which is a punishment for peoples wrong doings, while

13% respondents land use land cover change and absence of sustainable agricultural practice were the main cause of climate change in the study area.

Figure 4. 11 Deforested and degraded area in Jema river watershed Source: Field observation, (2020).

From key informant interview kebele DAs point out that:- “Low fertility of soil contribute a lot for climate change because the farmers further cutting trees around virgin land to gain fertile soil, this exacerbate the situations”.

Causes of climate change/variability

23.9% 25.4% Deforestation

Change in land use and land cover 13% 13% low fertility of land

Absence of sustainable 24.6% farming system Rage of God

Figure 4. 12 Main causes of climate change and variability Source: Field survey, (2020).

4.5.2. Vulnerable social groups by climate change and variability in the study area

World Bank, (2012) stats that the poor, landless, women‟s, children, disables and elders are among the most vulnerable social groups in the community due to lack of access to resources mobility, decision making etc. In view of this, about 42% of sampled respondents said that poor and landless peoples are more vulnerable to the impact of CCV because they don‟t have enough farm land and livestock‟s. Whereas 21.7% of respondents said that, women‟s and children‟s are the most affected social groups in the community. Women‟s affected due to they have several household responsibilities. They are responsible to do all home activities including fetching water, collecting firewood, while children‟s affected through lack of getting adequate nutrition‟s. The others 14.5%, 11.6% and 10.1% replies that , households with large family size, households with no additional income, elders and person who live with disability respectively were vulnerable to the adverse effects of CCV, because of limited adaptive capacity.

Vulnerable social groups

Elders and disables 10.1

Women and children 21.7

Land less and the poor 42 Households no additional income 11.6

Households with large family size 14.5

0 20 40 Percent 60

Figure 4. 13 Vulnerable social groups by climate change and variability Source: Field survey, (2020).

4.6. Coping & adaptation strategies to climate change and variability

Since, climate change is a real phenomenon and affecting the entire world, people are working to minimize the influence through adapting and coping mechanisms. However, the capacity differs from country to country, from region to region and even from woreda to woreda. This is because

of the nature of the area and development. So far, in Merhabete woreda as one of the exposed areas for climate change, there are different local and institutional adaptive and coping mechanisms. However, increased frequency and intensity of climate change impacts have reduced the capacity of local people to adaptation and cope with the problems.

The household survey indicates that 52.9% of respondents said, it is possible to adapt with some of the impacts of climate change induced-hazards. While about 47.1% of the respondents confirmed that it is impossible to adapt climate change related problem. In line with this, household respondents were asked responsibility for the adaptation practice. About 61.6% of the responses established that adaptation to changing climate was the responsibility of government organization where as 23.9% of them considered it was the responsibility of local community, 11.6% and 2.2% regarded as responsibility of the non-government organization and interested group respectively. In order to confirm whether there is association between perceptions to adapt CCV with educational level, one-way ANOVA test was employed. Accordingly, null hypothesis was stated that, there is no mean difference between perception to adapt CCV and educational level.

Table 4. 12 One-way ANOVA test hypothesis between perceptions to adapt CCV with educational level

ANOVA Perception to adapt CCV Sum of squares df Mean square F Sig. Between groups 2.590 3 .863 3.629 .015 Within groups 31.881 134 .238 Total 34.471 137 Source: Computed field survey, (2020).

One-way ANOVA test employed to analyze association between educational level and perception to adapt CCV, it reveals that p= .015 and 0.05 is determined to accept or reject the null hypothesis. Accordingly, the null hypothesis is rejected because of 0.015 < 0.05, therefore, it could be concluded that there is mean significant association of perception to adapt CCV among different educational level of respondents, so education is important tool for adaptation practice.

4.6.1. Farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change

Studies have confirmed that climate change is happening, and societies must take the necessary adaptation strategies to the impacts of CCV. For poor countries like most African nations, adaptation is not an option rather it is a necessity (IPCC, 2014). Adaptation strategies are methods that the local people used to adjust themselves with the existing change. In order to this, the local people on the woreda made different changes and adjustments in different sectors. These includes growing short maturing crops, wise storage of crop grains (saving), changing livestock type, intensive irrigation, decreasing the number of livestock, rain water harvesting, crop diversification and inter- cropping system.

Growing short maturing crops: about 41.7% of Kola and 31.9% of Woyina Dega kebele households uses early maturing crop types as a response to climate change. Start to cultivate like masho, chickpea and other early maturing, high yielding, drought and diseases resistant crops.

According to FGD participants and key informant interviews:- “Early maturing crop are planted due to shortening of growing season in the study area. For instance, Kiremt season is shortened from three to one month. As a result, recently in the lowland area they start grow masho (a kind of crop which looks likes soybeans in size) which is totally not cultivated before 10 years. This crop needs maximum of 2 months to be harvested and have low intake of water as compare to other crops”.

Crop diversification and inter cropping system: This strategy seeks to avoid risks of total crop failure rather than maximizing yields of one particular crop (UNEP, 2006). Crop diversification is the most commonly used method to overcome the impact of CCV in Ethiopia (Temesgen et al., 2014). Diversification is identified as adaptation strategy that has evolved to deal with both expected rainfall uncertainty and seasonal fluctuations in rainfall. There are many benefits with crop diversification. It is more secure because if one variety fails, farmers probably still have some other crop varieties that are successful. Rotating of crop varieties on each plot of land, soil fertility will be maintained and the soil will not be exhausted.

The household survey indicated that crop diversification and change in cropping pattern, which is dominantly practiced by farmers was reported by about 22.5% of the respondents. Recently,

rainfall in the study area has shown variability, as a result, farmers could not be certain about rainfall condition before onset of rain. But after the onset, rainfall could be heavy or light or it may stop earlier than the expected time farmers could able to predict and aware about the type of crops planted in accordance with the characteristic (pattern) of the rain. As a result, the crop diversification and cropping pattern of the study area grown in the rain fall pattern. Cereal crops grow diversely and rotatily in the area includes; sorghum, wheat, barley, maize, bean and pea, chickpea, vetch, linseed, masho, teff, neug, selite and abish. In this regard leguminous plants, such as bean and pea in Dega and Woyina Dega, masho in Kola grows rotatily with other crops since they fix nitrogen to soil and increase soil fertility (MWADO, 2020).

Wise storage of crop grains (saving): Storage pools and reduces risks across time. When combined with well-constructed infrastructure, low levels of perishability, and high level of coordination across households and social groups, it is an effective measure against even complete livelihood failures at a given point in time. As an adaptation practice to address risks, storage is relevant to individual farmers and communities to address food scarcities (Agrawal, 2008). Cognizant of this importance, the survey data obtained from HHHs indicates that, 34.1% of respondents were adapt the changing climate through wise storage of crop grains in garner made up from bamboo or thin woods. Especially in Dega agro ecology peoples save grains for a long period of time with low levels of perishability than other agro ecology because of cool air condition, low occurrence of insects (in Amharic Nekeze) on saving grains, where as in Kola it is high and easily perishable since the air condition is hot.

Intensive irrigation Irrigation can be a valuable strategy for making agriculture more stable and safe. Use of irrigation is one of the least practiced adaptation strategies among the major adaptation methods identified in Ethiopia (Temesgen et al., 2014). In line with this idea, from total respondents 18.1% of the sample respondents respond that use small scale irrigation at Jema and Wenchite river buffer and produce vegetables like onion, chilies and cabbage for household consumption and to sell at market. In this regard participants from only Kola and Woyina Dega kebele‟s practiced small scale irrigation.

Table 4.13 Farmers adaptation options Farmers adaptation strategies to Sample kebeles Total CCV Gewu Ofina Goranda Merigaze Sibiwasha Mariam Serika Growing short maturing crops 31.9% 41.7% 25.4%

Crop diversification and inter- 41.9% 14.9% 12.5% 22.5% cropping system Wise storage of crop grains 58.1% 34.0% 12.5% 34.1% (saving) Intensive irrigation 19.1% 33.3% 18.1% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Field survey, (2020).

When looks farmers adaptation strategies in different agro ecologic conditions, growing short maturing crops and intensive irrigation are the main adaptation strategies in Kola agro ecologies(Goranda Mariam Serika kebele) but it have not an adaptation strategies for Dega agro ecology(Gewu Merigaze kebele). Whereas the entire list adaptation strategies used in Woyina Dega agro ecologies (Ofina Sibiwasha kebele). From the sample result it can be conclude that farmer‟s adaptation strategies differ in different agro ecological conditions (See table, 4.13).

Diversification of income sources: Diversification of household income is a method used by local people to increase their income to compensate the amount of earnings lost due to decreased agricultural productivity. The respondents asked whether they were engaged another source of livelihood other than Agriculture (off farm activity). The household survey showed that beyond half (61.6%) of the total households were engaged in non-farm activities. From those respondents 20.3% engaged in petty trade (making and selling of Tella and Areki, selling livestock that comes from Shewarobete and Degola towns for profit), 15.2% bee keeping, 14.5% working hand craft(such as weaving, carpeting and poetry) and the rest 11.6% working as wage labor and others like priest.

Figure 4. 14 Households means of income diversification Source: Photo during field observation (2020)

4.6.2. Farmers’ coping mechanisms to climate variability

Coping strategies are actual responses to crises on livelihood systems in the face of unwelcome situation; therefore they are termed as short term responses (Dawit and Habtamu, (2011). Generally, the local communities are already undertaking various coping mechanisms in response to the adverse impacts of CCV. Thus, to assess the types of coping strategies they are using, the surveyed household heads told the farmers use the following coping mechanisms;

Selling fire wood and charcoal: Selling fuel wood and charcoal is another coping mechanism which is used by farmers to cope up with incoming impact of drought and rain fall variability. From the total respondents 39.9% respond that by selling fire wood, animal muck and charcoal to cope up the existing climate variability related problems. In the study area mostly poor people cover their house consumption by selling fire woods, muck and charcoals to the urban dwellers.

Coping mechanisms to climate variability

39.9% 40.0%

30.0% 18.1% 18.1% 20.0% 11.6% 8.0% 10.0% 4.3%

0.0% Reducing Selling fire Borrowing Sells of Renting of Seasonal number of wood and grains from livestock land migration meals charcoal relatives Percent

Figure 4. 15 Coping strategies to climate variability. Source: Field survey, (2020).

Seasonal migration: One of people‟s adaptation options to cope the climate variability impacts are migration. Especially peoples in Kola and Woyina Dega kebeles chooses migrate to Addis Ababa, Alem ketema, Mizan, Wulkite and Wonije towns and surrounding rural areas to get works as a daily laborer or farming of contract lands from other nations . As indicated on figure 4.15, around 18.1% of the respondents say‟s migration is their coping mechanisms to the impacts of climate variability. Most of the time peoples who migrate are above the age of 30 to get jobs. By doing this they reduce vulnerability of their family and after they get some money they back to their home.

Reduce number of meal: According to the individual interview reports 11.6% of the respondents reduce the mile size and frequencies of eating during shortage of food occurs. This system is implemented on adult household members commonly eat two times per day even they forced to eat ripen grains (in Amharic said to be Nifiro or Kolo), whereas children are commonly eating three times with low nutrition level. In other way, during the serious food scarcity periods the community has confirmed that the size of meal and frequency will be decreased for all household members.

Borrowing grains from relatives: about 4.3% of the respondents are borrowing grains from relatives to cope the impacts of climate variability are the main coping mechanisms. When get surplus product they return the borrowed grains or compensate through helping daily works.

Selling of livestock: from the total samples 18.1% of them cope the climate impact problems through selling of sheep‟s, goats, cows, hens and even the problem is more sever forced to sell farming ox.

Renting of land: to pass bad time 8% respondents were forced to rent their lands for 3 up to 5 years in cash or in kind. But there is frustration in this way, some renter not willing to leave at the end of the year.

According to the survey, farmers coping strategies to shortage of water is that 39.1% of respondents reveals that use of river water for household consumption were the main coping mechanism during dry season, 31.9% and 26.1% of respondents said that use of harvested rain water and by using reservoirs or ponds water possible to cope shortage of water. While the remain 2.8% respond that through use of ground water and other means it can pass the drought and water shortage period. In relation with shortage of forage and feeds for animals and late planting of grasses with increasing depletion, majority 52.2% respondents practices of reducing the number of livestock, 29% and 18.8% of respondents said through changing livestock type and sale of weak or old animals before the dry season respectively able to cope the adverse impact of climate variability on livestock.

4.6.3. Local government responses to climate change and variability

Developing nations that lack the infrastructure or resources to respond to the impacts of climate change will be particularly affected. It is clear that many of the world‟s poorest people are likely to suffer the most from climate change. Long-term global efforts to create a more healthy, prosperous and sustainable world may be severely hinder by changes in the climate. To minimize the impacts of climate change the government of Ethiopia has adopted national policies, sector strategies and programs. The priorities of the national policies, sector strategies and programs of the government are primarily targeted at promoting rural and agricultural development and poverty reduction. As a result, climate variability and adaptation issues are often treated indirectly in sector specific policies and programs since climate impacts are considered as a sub-component of the overall development goal particularly in relation to natural resources and environmental protection (NMA, 2007). Local government responses related to climate variability and its impact

in the study area are mobilizing community for mitigation measures of CCV, introducing new technology, access to credit services and disaster preparedness, prevention and information.

Mobilizing community for mitigation measures to climate change and variability

Mitigation is an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Mitigation of climate change refers to actions that limit the level and rate of climate change. The two basic mitigation options are the reduction of GHG emissions (e.g., through fuel switching in the energy sector) and the direct reduction of their concentrations (through sequestration or enhancing the sink capacity of biological and other systems) (IPCC, 2014). Tree planting, soil and water conservation activities are crucial sequestering of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the plants and soil, its minimized atmospheric concentration and emission of CO2. In this case, from the last two decades onwards in Ethiopia; afforestation, soil and water conservation programs and huge degraded areal closure activity have been made by government through mobilizing the local community to mitigate the existing climate change at country level and as the same time to contribute little for global effort.

Soil and water conservation, preventing run-off and reversing the considerable loss of soil fertility in the watershed in turn gives rise to agricultural productivity in treated areas. Intense natural resources rehabilitation on degraded farmland and grazing areas are being implemented using different soil and water conservation techniques to reduce soil erosion and increase vegetation cover. As the information gained from sample household head respondents, FGD and key informants interview reported that, through government mass mobilization for natural resource conservation, intervention works are under taking by the communities for 30 days in February yearly to increase mitigation measures nationwide and resilience of their livelihoods (agriculture) from climate change shocks. The intervention measures include, Planting trees (afforestation), terracing, rain water harvesting and reforestation on both private and communal land, prohibiting all closure areas from any use by people in the area.

FGD participant reported that:- “The participants appreciate the local government initiative to tackle impacts of climate change but the program was not well planned, they do for politics. The enclosure area sited near to our residence and farm land, it becomes home for wild animals, such as monkey, fox, massive birds, wild cat, snake and hyena. Wild animals eat our crops, fruits, sheep‟s, hens and goats. So we forced to displace from our area. They also point out that the terracing activities conducted on wealth person farm land, by abusing the poor labor force through leaving the degraded and eroded area. The enclose area became source of conflict regarding to use of inside resource, like grass”.

Figure 4. 16 Local peoples participating on natural resource conservation (terracing) Source: Photo during field observation (2020)

Introducing new agricultural technologies

The introduction of new agricultural technologies resulting the farmer more productive and increase productivity of agricultural product with out as such environmental damage, this can be bring sustainable development. Such as improved soil and water management practices, improved seeds, fertilizer management, introduce and disseminate improved stoves to the communities at household level to reduce wood and manure fuel consumption, the introduced and give short training on improved livestock husbandry systems and disseminate poultry chickens for farmers and supervise, encourage and support on the spot of farmers village are mechanisms to increase

productivity and achieve food sufficiency. Increase income diversification through modern irrigation system help the effort made for food security, distribution of hand pumps, water harvesting materials (Geomemiberen), modern bee hives, hybrid animals and fruits seeds for the communities is the effort of the government to adapt the changing climate and give training about production of fruits, vegetables and cash crops with creation of market linkage is one remarkable activities made by the woreda agriculture office and they suggested that, technology implication on agriculture sector are key for poverty reduction and food security. But by different reason the above mentioned activities were seasonal.

Figure 4. 17 Nursery site of woreda agriculture office (hybrid mango seeds) Source: Photo during field observation (2020)

Access to credit services The sample house hold heads were asked access to institutional credit during occurrence of climate related hazards. According to the survey data, majority 72.5% respondents said „No‟ because of heavy criteria and high interest rate they are not able to fit. From total respondents only 27.5% of the respondents said „Yes‟, they get credit from ASCI with many guaranty criteria to get the money and also with high interest rate. Even if there is an effort made by the government, but clearly shows that farmers‟ adaptation to the changing climatic is being constrained by not easily access to credit because of complex criteria and high interest rate of credit institution in the woreda.

Disaster preparedness, prevention and information Most respondent households of the study area 50.7% reported that not get adequate early warning information before the occurrence of climate related shock, even after occurrence government responses to the impacts of climate hazards were not effective. FGD participants and key informants indicated that they are not satisfied with preparation and responses of the government particularly against climate variability, human and animal disease, crop pest invasion and diseases, flooding, hailstorm and landslide which affected the livelihood of the people in the area. In fact, Agricultural development office carried out disaster prevention and preparedness programs to reduce the vulnerability of the communities to climate change caused disasters. But, most of these activities were not effective due to lack of modern weather forecasts material and skilled man power to predict the future climate condition.

4.7. Barriers to climate change adaptation

A study conducted by Bewket (2010) in choke mountain, East Gojjam, identified lack of access to land ,water, market, information, and knowledge about the appropriate adaptations as barriers to adaptation climate change in Ethiopia. This study supports the findings of such survey results.

Barriers to adapt CCV Key 7.2% 17.4% Lack of information on climate 15.9% and weather variability Lack of enough arable land 10.9% Animal forage and feed scarcity 11.6% Poor and corrupted 18.1% administration 18.8% Shortage of agricultural inputs

Lack of irrigation land

Poverty

Figure 4. 18 Household survey on barriers to adapt climate change Source: Field survey, (2020).

This survey assessed local people‟s barriers to use various adaptation options. Survey results obtained from household respondents, FGDs and key informants on barriers to taking up adaptation options includes; lack of irrigation land, poverty, lack of enough arable land, Poor and

corrupted administration, lack of information on climate and weather variability, forage and feed scarcity, shortage of agricultural inputs were major constraints of adaptation for many peoples in the study area.

Lack of information on climate and weather variability

Lack of information is one of the barriers to adapt impacts of CCV in the study area. The total 17.4% respondents and FGD participants found in the area declared that lack of access to timely meteorological reports (information) is one most pressing constraint for making adjustment to erratic or reduced rainfall to adjust planting dates. Weather forecasts related with onset and/or offset of rains have never been communicated. They also said that the weather information that rarely delivered to farmers for pre-harvest is very general and lack specificity. This adversely affects the accuracy and acceptability of meteorological reports.

Lack of enough arable land

Another major constraint of adaptation to impacts of climate change noted by 10.9% respondents was land scarcity. Many household heads indicated that very small (fragmented) land holding size was reported as the main cause. For crop diversification and crop rotation the small plots of land not adequate. Farmers explained that a decrease in their respective land holdings size and farm fragmentation leads economically poor.

Shortage of agricultural inputs

Substantial number of respondents considered lack of adequate agricultural inputs, since the land adapt fertilizers, the soil became infertile and erode, so that its fertilizer consumption increase from year to year but the supply is low. Even when the farmer needed such chemicals and fertilizers the government not supply timely. Sometimes chemical fertilizer supplied at late July, after farming finished. Whereas the price of fertilizer, pesticide, herbicide and insecticides increased yearly, this also constraint to resist climate related problems.

Animal forage and feed scarcity Even though both crops and animals are susceptible to climate variability, but animals seemed to be less affected because of their ability to move. They can escape spatially and temporally stresses full conditions of climate variability. For instance, in time of forage and

water scarcity, move to Jima and Wenichit rivers wet land, there is sufficient water and wet grasses if household enough manpower to look animals at Kola, unless animals stay at home since grazing lands became closure area and strictly prohibited by the government and strong penalty to send animals in the area.

Poor and corrupted administration The survey results showed 18.8% respondents that, Poor and corrupted administration were hindrances to adapt climate change, the farmer exposed for additional and unnecessary expense because of the presence of corrupted administration both at kebele and woreda level. For instance the chemical fertilizer that comes for farmers sold for merchants, and then merchants sold for farmer with expensive cost. Prohibiting food aid by saying the farmers are food secure to the government and non-governmental organization for political purpose. Impose unnecessary expenses on farmers, like expense for sport, Red Cross and for different associations obliged by solders. Increase annual rent of unproductive farm land, unemployment of educated youths and local government assigned enclosure area near to our residence and farm land, it becomes home for wild animals, such as monkey, fox, wild cat, snake and hyena. Wild animals eat our crops, fruits, sheep‟s, hens and goats. So we forced to displace from the area and it also source of conflict in use of resource inside was some of the problems reported by the respondents.

Lack of irrigation land Lack of irrigable land was the main constraint for peoples who live in Dega agro ecology of Merhabete woreda. The majority of sample respondents in Dega kebele respond that absence of river and springs in the area not able to practice irrigation, that‟s help during crop failure, whereas in Kola and Woyina Dega some respondents reported that lack of irrigable land considered as the main barriers to adapt CCV induced hazards.

Poverty Adaptation comes at a cost. Hence, poor households have low adaptive capacity. The people in the area indicated poverty as a major constraint for not taking up the following adaptation options: changing crop pattern, to use agricultural inputs, rainwater harvesting and adopting non-farm activities. For instance, to engage with petty trade availability of money to start petty trade were main constraint.

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1. Summary The international consensus of the scientific society led by IPCC, agreed that the global temperature is increasing and the main cause of this is the accumulation of CO2 and other GHGs. The negative effects of CCV are threatening to reverse development strives in many parts of the world, especially in developing countries. In the coming decades, global CCV will have a serious threat on food and water security. Ethiopia‟s agricultural sector is heavily dependent on natural rain fall (rain fed agriculture).Though agriculture is the back bone of Ethiopia‟s economy; it has been adversely impacted by various extreme weather events.

This study intended to assess the impacts of CCV on rural livelihood and their adaptation methods in three kebeles of Merhabete woreda found in North Shewa zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia. It relied on both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis. The primary data were collected by using data gathering tools such as household survey, FGDs, key informant interviews and observation. The study also used meteorology data of rainfall and temperature from 1989 to 2019 to examine the trend of climate variability.

The finding of the study showed that maximum temperature had significantly increasing through time and expected to continue increasing in the future. On the contrary, annual and seasonal rainfall had decreased and showed fluctuation. Local people also perceived, rainfall variability with increasing temperature, occurrence of new crop pests, weeds and diseases, recurrent drought and grow of new plant species, dry up of river and streams, prevalence of new human and animal disease as major indicators of CCV.

Crop yield reduction, shortage of pasture, shortage of water supply, occurrence new disease on crops, humans and animals, flooding and erosion are mentioned as the most frequently impacts of CCV on rural livelihood. According to the survey data crop pests, weeds and diseases, erratic rain fall with flooding, drought and others like lightning, snake etc. are main vulnerability of the community to climate shocks. Deforestation, low fertility of agricultural land, land use land cover

change and absence of sustainable agricultural practice were the main cause of climate change in the study area. But some respondents (23.9%) consider as act of God to punishment peoples wrong doings. The study attain that, landless and poor, women and children, households with large family size and no additional income, elders and disables were more vulnerable social groups to the adverse effects of CCV, because of limited adaptive capacity.

According to the finding of the study, the most common adaptation options include: growing short maturing crops, crop diversification and inter- cropping system, wise storage of crop grains (saving), intensive irrigation, diversification of income, changing livestock type and rain water harvesting were the main adaptation strategies for crop production/animal husbandry and water supply problem through adjust themselves with the existing change. And also the farmer cope the immediate crises through selling fire wood and charcoal, seasonal migration, reducing number of meals, sells of livestock, borrowing grains from relatives and renting of land were short term responses for crop failure, whereas use of river water for household consumption and decreasing the number of livestock were coping mechanisms for problems with water and animal. Analysis reveals that level of education; sex and martial states of HHH have significant effects on perception to adapt and hearing about CCV.

Mobilizing community for mitigation measures (natural resource conservation), introducing new agricultural technologies, access to credit services and disaster preparedness, prevention and information were some of local government initiated actions. But the analysis results indicate that some of the mitigation and adaptation measures were not integrated and mutually reinforcing. Lack of information on climate and weather variability, animal forage and feed scarcity, lack of enough arable land, poor and corrupted administration, shortage of agricultural inputs, lack of irrigation land and poverty are considered as the major constraints of farmer‟s adaptation to impact of CCV.

5.2. Conclusion

The household survey result reveals that, temperature increment and rainfall variability is a major driver of vulnerability in the woreda. Synonymously the scientific data also indicate that the amount and timing of the rain fall in the area is very variable and decreasing trend in all seasons. While the trend of maximum temperature consistently increasing from year to year. This is affecting agricultural practices (both crop production and livestock husbandry) which are very sensitive to CCV. Crop yield reduction, shortage of pasture, occurrence of new disease on crops, humans and animals, flooding and erosion were some of the livelihood problem in the study area, which was exacerbated by shortage of agricultural land, low soil fertility, shortage of grazing land, water scarcity lead high poverty of the communities.

For many years, the local people of the study area have struggled against the impacts of different types of natural hazards. In order to minimize the impact of climate change hazards, the households and local communities have applied different adaptation strategies. However, increased frequency and intensity of climate change impacts have reduced the capacity of local people to adaptation and cope with the problems. Especially poor and landless, women and children, elders and disables, household no additional incomes and large family size were more vulnerable households among the society.

The current coping and adaptation strategies that the local people used and the government mitigation measures are not planned, coordinated and not sufficient, such as charcoal making and fuel wood selling are not only suitable but would also cause forest resource degradation and even leads desertification. Assigning enclosure area near to residence and farm land leads displace the community form their area and harvested rain water create favorable condition for malaria breeding. So that it could not fully support the local people to sustain their life. Even though the woreda governmental administration are trying to take some seasonal intervention measures, it faces several short comings like institutional inter- connectedness, commitment, equity, efficiency etc. Therefore it is not as such efficient to overcome the existing climate related problem in the area.

5.3. Recommendations

Based on the finding of the study, the following intervention measures are recommended to minimize the impacts of CCV on rural livelihood communities of Merhabete woreda. These measures include:-

 Empowering peoples with education and information; youth education program should be continued that stopped before five years ago and give training on impact of climate change and its adaptation strategies in addition to modern farming and inputs utilization. Create awareness about climate change, its impact on rural livelihood and providing reliable and early warning weather information for farmers help to take appropriate copping and adaptive measures. And also build the capacity of women in all decision making process, women‟s both household headed or others should be informed and participated in governmental or social group meeting, to be aware in all aspect equal to men‟s.

 Use environmentally sound agricultural production system, people in Merhabete are facing declining trend of crop productivity because of erratic rainfall, intensified occurrence of pest and diseases, environmental degradation and increased temperature. With the ever-increasing climate variability, the problem shall continue in the future unless appropriate measures are taken. Hence, tree planting, crop diversification, selecting early maturing and high yielding crop, improving input utilization, promote traditional pest management, increase soil fertility using animal manure and rehabilitation of degraded areas should be a critical concern of local government.

 Access to credit is considered as one of the several factors that can affect adaptive capacity of households. Thus, to minimize the effects of CCV, the local government should facilitate long term credit service with low interest rate for landless, poor, women and young to invest in farm and off farm activities.

 Beneficiary to productive safety net program for more vulnerable social groups by impacts of CCV to fill food gap and chronic food insecurity, through participating on soil and water conservation activities, planting trees and performing any activity in kebele administration and assist crop (wheat). In addition any development plans designed take in

to account the most vulnerable section of the society to minimize the risk related with climate variability.

 Government officials specifically woreda agricultural office should train farmers on utilization of inputs, farmers use inputs traditionally, not know the dose for hectare, its leads reduce natural soil fertility and soil decomposition through misuse of scarce and expensive inputs.

 To minimize the impact of CCV in the study area, the local government administration and non-governmental organization should support, expand and solve the constraint of indigenous adaptation strategies; conduct experience sharing among farmer‟s which employed effective adaptation strategies, such as growing short maturing crops, crop diversification, diversifying income sources and irrigation to bring sustainable development in the area.

 Adaptation & mitigation strategies should be complimentary, integrated and mutually reinforcing, the local government planned equally without contradict each other since both of them were important to reduce the adverse impact of CCV.

Finally, this study recommend similar studies to be conducted in the study area and adequately identify the impact of CCV, its adaptation mechanisms and existing challenges to adapt and provide more options to policy formulation and enhance livelihood sustainability of the rural community.

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Debre Berhan University College of Social Sciences & Humanities Department of Geography and Environmental Studies

APPENDIX Appendix I: Introduction

My name is Kefelegn Chernet. I am a master‟s student in Debre Berhan University studying Geography and Environmental studies (Specialization in MSC in Environment and sustainable Development). I am doing my thesis on: the Impacts of climate change and variability on rural livelihoods and Community responses in Merhabete woreda, North Shewa zone, Amhara region, Ethiopia.

Thus, I would like to express my appreciation in advance for your cooperation in giving your time and being committed for the success of this work. The information from respondents will keep confidential and will not affect any body in any way. So you are kindly requested to give your honest opinion.

Thank you in advance

Part I. General characteristics of respondents

1. General 1.1. Name of the kebele------1.2 Farmer‟s name ------(Not compulsory) 1.3. Date of interview------1.4. Enumerator‟s name ------signature------Checked by ------signature ------2. Socio-economic and demographic characteristics 2.1. Sex of household: A. Male B. Female 2.2. Age of the household head in years………… 2.3. Family size, Male……….. Female…………. Total……………..

2.4. Marital status: A. Single B. Married C. Divorced D. widowed 2.5. What is your educational level? A. Illiterate B. Capable to read and write C. Primary School D. Secondary School E. Higher education 3. What is your means of livelihood or how do you get your livelihood? (Multiple responses is possible) A. Livestock husbandry B. Crop production C. Renting out land

D. Mixed agriculture E. petty trade F. Other (specify)………..

4. Do you have another source of livelihood other than Agriculture (off farm activity)? A. Yes B. No (skip toQNo6) 5. If answer to Q No 4 is ‘yes’, what could be that activity, Please specify A. Bee keeping B. Petty trade C. working as labor

D. working hand crafts E. others (specify)………….

6. Do you hold land? A. Yes B. No (skip toQNo12) 7. If your answer for Q No 6 is ‘yes’, how much is the total size of your land? Before 10 years in Timad ………….. Currently in Timad………………. 8. Crop production/year in quintal before 10 years ago is………………… 9. Crop production/year in quintal currently………………… 10. How many kilograms of chemical fertilizer you use on your total farm land for 2011/2012 meher season? (Both DAP and Urea)………………………. 11. What are the major crops grown by your household last year? Cereal crop Average Yield From previous Years Reason for decrement or (timad) (quintal) decrease or increase increment Teff Sorghum Wheat Barley Maize Bean Pea Others Total

12. Do you have livestock? A, Yes B, No (skip toQNo14) 13. If yes on question number 12 how many livestock do you have? Animal type Number of animals Reason for decrement or No of Animals before No of Animals right increment 10 years now Oxen Cow Horse Donkey Sheep Goat Hen Beehives Total Part II.

A. Assessment of the impact of climate change /variability and community vulnerability 14. Are you heard about climate change /variability before? A. Yes B. No (skip toQNo16)

15. If your answer to QNo 14 is yes, from which source you heard about climate change/variability?

A. Radio B. Television C. Newspaper

D. Government Organization E. Non-government Organization

16. What is your perception about climate change/ variability of your kebele?

A. There is climate variability B. The climate has changed

C. The climate has not changed (it is stagnant) D. I have no idea

17. If your answer to Q No 16 is, “the climate has changed/ show variability” what are the local indicators of the observed climate change? (Multiple answers is possible) A. Rain fall variability B. Increase in temperature C. Recurrent drought and grow of new plant species D. Occurrence of new crop pests, weeds and diseases E. Dry up of river and streams F. Prevalence of newly introduced human and animal disease G. Others (specify)…………...

18. What are the major challenges that climate change/ variability posed on your livelihood?

A. Shortage of pasture B. Crop yield reduction C. Occurrence new human disease

E. Shortage of water supply D. Flooding and erosion F. Others (specify)………..

19. How do you perceive the temperature pattern of your locality or Village?

A. Increased B. decreased C. No observable change D, Other specify.

20. Is there a change in the timing of rain in your area? A. Yes B. No (skip toQNo23)

21. If your answer is ‘Yes’, how do you characterize it?

A. comes early and goes late. B. Comes and goes early C. Comes late and goes early

22. If your answer for Q No 21 is, comes late and goes early, what changes have you observed in crop production?

A. decrease in crop yield B. Increase in crop yield

C. No change in production D. Decrease of long cycle crops E. Others

23. Are you vulnerable to such problems like economic shocks, health, price fluctuations….? A. Yes B. No (skip toQNo25)

24. If yes, which one of the following affects your life? (You can select one more)

A. Loss of livestock B. Price fluctuations for agricultural products C. Food inadequacy D. Disease E. Flood and landslide F. Shortage of water supply

G. Other (specify)…………..

25. Do household get sufficient water in the whole year? A. Yes B. No

26. What is the source of water for your household?

A. Rivers (Stream) B. Protected springs C. pounds

D. Unprotected springs E. pipe lines F. Dams

27. Do you think that livestock production has increased or decreased in your village or locality? A. Increased (skip toQNo29) B. Decreased

28. If your answer for Q No27 is decreased, what do you think is the reason?

A. Livestock disease B. lack of grazing land C. shortage of water for animal‟s D. lack of fodder for animals E. others, (specify) ……………

29. Have you ever faced any climate related disaster over the last 10 years?

A. Yes B. No (skip toQNo32)

30. If your answer for QNo 29, is ‘yes’, what type of climate shock is your concern?

A. Recurrent drought B. Erratic rain fall with flooding

C. Crop pests, weeds and diseases D. Rain fall variability E. others

31. What do you think is the main cause for the climate change related problem that you specified in Q NO, 30?

A. Deforestation B. Change in land use and land cover C. low fertility of land D. Absence of sustainable farming system E. Others (specify)…………….

32. Which group of the society is most impacted by and vulnerable to climate change and variability?

A. Households with large family size B. Households with no additional income

C. Land less and the poor D. Women and children

E. Elders and disables

B. Adaptive and Copping methods to impacts of climate change and variability

33. Do you think that it is possible to adapt the impacts of climate variability induced-hazards?

A. Yes B. No

34. Who is responsible to adaptation practice? (Multiple answers is possible)

A. Government Organization B. Non-government Organization

C. Local community D. Interested group

35. Did you participate in any community based measure to overcome the observed climate change/ variability impacts?

A. Yes B. No (skip toQNo37)

36. If yes, what is that measure you have participated to overcome climate variability problem?

A. planting trees (afforestation) B. Terracing

C. Rain water harvesting D. Reforestation

37. What are major coping strategies you used to overcome climate change / variability impacts on livestock production?

A. Changing livestock type B. Seasonal migration with your cattle in search of pasture & water

C. Sale of weak and old animals before the dry season. D. Decreasing the number of livestock

E. Others (specify)……………..

38. Adaptation strategies, you used to overcome climate change / variability impacts related with crop production?

A. Receiving aid from safety net B. Growing short maturing crops

C. Crop diversification and inter- cropping system D. wise storage of crops (saving).

E. Intensive irrigation F. Others (specify)………..

39. Adaptation related with shortage of water?

A. Rain water harvesting B. Use of river waters

C. Use of ground water D. Use of reservoirs and ponds

E. Others (specify)………...

40. How do you manage to cope with some of your problems related with vulnerability?

A. Reducing number of meals B. Selling fire wood and charcoal

C. Borrowing grains from relatives D. Sells of livestock

E. Renting of land F. Seasonal migration

G. By getting aid H. Others (specify) …………

41. Do you have access to get credits from institutions during climate related hazards? A. Yes B. NO

42. Do you get early warning information before the occurrence of climate related shock?

A. Yes (skip toQNo44) B. NO

43. If No, who is responsible in disseminating information before the occurrence of hazards?

A. local institutions, ( Idir, debo). B. NGOs

C. Local government institutions D. Medias such us TV, Radios

E. Others (specify)……………

44. What are the barriers to adapt the impact of climate change and variability?

A. Lack of information on climate and weather variability B. Lack of enough arable land

C. Animal forage and feed scarcity D. Poor and corrupted administration

E. Shortage of agricultural inputs F. Lack of irrigation land

G. Poverty

45. What do you think the locally feasible coping mechanisms that should be adopted to reduce climate change / variability impacts on livelihoods? ------

Appendix, II

Interview questions for focus group discussions (FGD)

1. What do you think are the local indicators of Climate variability or change in your kebele? 2. Do you think climate change or variability posed negative effects on your livelihood? If Yes, Please explain it. 3. What are the more vulnerable livelihood sectors in your Keble (peasant association)? 4. Is there any change on water, grazing land, the quality of pasture and arable land over the past years in your village? Please 5. Who is responsible to give response to the variability of climate? 6. What are the main impacts of climate variability on the community, on the livestock and the environment? List down 7. How do you perceive your crop production? A. Increasing B. Decreasing 8. What are the local peoples coping mechanisms used to reduce the impacts? 9. Have there been climate extremes (drought and flooding) in the last 20 years? 10. Have you ever been participated in community based environmental participation in your Keble? 11. What are the major constraints you have that hinders your coping mechanisms? 12. What is the role of traditional institutions in coping the problem?

Appendix III

Check list for key informant interviews

1. Is there any form of climate change or variability in your woreda/district? If „Yes‟ what are the observed indicators of climate change/ variability? 2. What do you think is the impacts of climate variability on the livelihoods of farmers? 3. Who are more vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and variability? 4. What are the local peoples coping mechanisms used to reduce the impacts? 5. What do you think the causes of climate change/ variability? 6. Do local communities take part in making decisions with regard to adaptation mechanisms and how to implement CBA in woreda level? If, yes, how? If not why Please explain it? 7. What are the major impacts of climate variability induced-hazards up on the people‟s health, livestock and environment? 8. What do you think the possible ways to minimize the impacts of climate variability? 9. What is the role of institutions like GOs, NGOs, in facilitating adaptation to climate change in your woreda?

APPENDIX V

Check list for field observation

1. Impacts of climate change and variability 2. Communities‟ natural resource conservation activities 3. Government activities on environmental conservation 4. Farmers coping and adaptation strategies 5. Farmers additional incomes (off farm activities)

ANNEX Annex.1 Monthly Maximum Temperature in ℃

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1989 25.6 26.4 26.8 28.4 27.9 28.9 25.4 22.1 21.2 23.8 24.4 24.1 1990 20.8 20.7 22.6 24.6 25.5 25.1 26.5 20.1 20.1 23.9 25.1 24 1991 27.3 29.2 27.8 28.2 26.3 22.4 20.9 19.9 22.2 24 24.3 25.1 1992 23.3 25.4 25.6 25.8 26 25.3 20 20.3 21.8 23.7 25 24.3 1993 25 25.8 27.9 25.3 25.9 25.5 21.5 21.1 21.1 23.7 24.8 25.1 1994 26.7 27.1 27.2 28.1 28.5 26.1 20.3 19.8 21.5 24.4 24.9 25.2 1995 25.7 27 27.4 26.6 27.5 27.7 21.4 20.6 22.3 24.9 25.4 24.6 1996 24.6 27.5 26.5 26.9 25.8 25 20.2 20.4 22.1 24.7 24.6 25 1999 24.7 26 27.3 26.8 28.4 25.9 20.6 20.9 22.7 23.2 24.4 24.7 2000 26 27.1 28.4 26.5 27.4 26.9 20.9 20.7 22.6 24.5 24.7 25.2 2001 25.5 27.3 25.7 28.2 27.6 25.4 21.2 20.5 23.3 25.7 25.3 25.7 2002 25.7 27.6 27.3 28.4 29.7 27.7 24.2 21.2 23.2 26.1 26.5 25.9 2003 26.7 28.1 27.5 27.7 29.5 26.9 21 20.8 22.4 25.7 25.7 25.4 2004 27.2 27.8 28.1 27 29.2 26 21.9 21.4 22.5 24.4 25.5 25.7 2005 25.6 28.6 28.3 27.7 26 26.5 21 20.8 23.1 25.3 24.9 24.9 2006 26.4 28 27.2 26.7 28 27.3 22 20.5 22.3 25.6 25.8 25.6 2007 26.4 26.8 28.4 27.9 28.8 26 20.8 20.6 22.5 24.6 25.5 25.1 2008 26.5 27.3 29.2 27.8 28.1 26.3 22.4 20.9 23.3 25.3 24.3 25.6 2009 26.4 27.9 28.9 28.8 29.5 29.4 21.2 21.5 24.1 25.3 26.5 25.3 2010 27 27.5 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.6 22.7 20.7 23.1 25.9 26.1 25.5 2011 26.5 28.6 27 29.1 28.3 27.7 22.6 21.2 23.2 25.9 25.7 26.3 2012 27.1 28.8 29.4 27.8 29 28.3 22.8 21.6 24.6 26.1 27.3 26.5 2013 28 29.3 29.7 30.4 29.4 27.2 20.7 20.6 23.4 24.6 25.8 25.5 2014 27.1 27.4 27.6 25.7 28 27.4 23.8 20.7 22.7 25.5 25.8 26.2 2015 27.8 28.9 28.9 29.8 28.2 27.8 25.3 22.3 23.8 26.8 26.5 26.3 2016 27.2 29.3 30.2 27.8 23.1 27 21.8 21 23.4 26 25.8 26.9 2017 26.6 29.8 29.3 27.5 29.4 26.3 22.7 20.6 21.3 26.8 25.3 26.8 2018 27 29.3 28.3 27.7 29 24.7 21.3 12.4 13.5 25.8 24.8 26.3 2019 27.3 28.8 28.6 27.9 28.6 26 24.3 20.9 23 26.8 25.7 26.9

Annex. 2 Monthly Minimum Temperature in ℃

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1989 12.2 13.1 13.5 14 15.6 15.1 12.7 11.7 13.5 13.3 12.5 13.4 1990 12.5 13.7 12.9 12.4 14.9 13.4 10.5 10.3 11.6 13.5 13.6 14.1 1991 13.9 15.7 15.3 15.1 15.4 15.6 13.8 12 13.1 14.2 14 12.7 1992 12.7 14.1 14.9 14.9 15.7 15.2 12.7 12.6 12.3 12.6 11.8 11.4 1993 13.5 13.9 14.1 13.8 15.3 14.8 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.5 12.7 12.5 1994 13.5 14.5 15.3 15.9 16.4 15 12.9 12.8 12.8 13.3 12.9 12.6 1995 13.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.2 13.4 12.8 13.7 14 13.1 13.2 1996 13.7 14.8 14.8 15.3 15.3 14 12.8 12.4 13.6 13.2 12.2 12.7 1997 13.8 13.2 15.2 14.7 15.8 14.6 12.8 13 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.2 1998 14.2 15.5 15.6 16.6 16.7 15.8 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.5 12.6 12.7 1999 12.5 14.7 15.5 15.3 16.1 15.6 12.3 12.4 13.6 13.1 11.5 12.4 2000 12.6 13.5 14.8 13.1 15.7 15.2 12.2 12.3 13.3 12.9 12.3 12.4 2001 13.3 14.4 14.5 16.1 15.9 14.6 13 13.7 13.8 13.9 12.6 13 2002 13.1 14.5 15.1 15.7 17.6 15.4 14 13.1 14 13.8 12.9 14.2 2003 14.1 15.1 15.2 15.8 18 15.7 13.4 13.7 13.5 13.4 13 12.5 2004 15 14.1 14.6 15.7 17 15.5 13.1 13.2 13.6 12.4 12.7 12.8 2005 12.9 14.4 14.9 14.7 15.2 15.2 12.8 13 13.2 12.8 11.9 10.7 2006 12.4 14.3 14.8 15.1 16.1 15.4 13.1 12.7 13.3 14.6 13 13.4 2007 14.3 14.6 15.4 15.9 16.9 15.2 12.8 12.8 13.2 13.5 12.7 11.9 2008 14.1 14.1 15.4 16.2 16.7 14.9 13.1 12.6 13.7 14 12.2 13.1 2009 13.9 14.8 15.8 16.3 17.2 17 12.8 13.1 14.5 13.9 13.2 14.2 2010 14 15.8 15.3 16.2 16.6 16.7 13.4 12.9 13.6 14.4 13.1 13.3 2011 14.2 14.1 14.7 16 16.1 15.9 13.3 13.1 13.6 13.7 13.3 12.4 2012 13.5 14.8 15.4 16.9 16.4 15.9 12.7 12.5 13.6 13.4 13.8 13.1 2013 13.8 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.1 15.3 12.8 12.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 11.8 2014 14.3 14.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 13 13.4 12 14 7.9 6.5 6.1 2015 5.6 7.3 7.9 8.9 8.3 12.3 12.7 11 8.4 8.9 8 8.1 2016 9.6 10.3 12.3 15.4 9.1 13.7 13.3 12.8 13.7 13.6 12.3 9.8 2017 12.5 13.7 12.9 12.4 14.9 13.4 10.5 10.3 11.6 13.5 13.6 14.1 2018 11.8 13.9 14.7 15.2 15.6 13.9 12.2 13 14.1 14.1 12.7 12.6 2019 12.6 14.8 15.1 15 15.8 14.2 12.8 11.8 13.7 12.6 10.6 12.8

Annex. 3 Monthly rainfall distribution in mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 1989 0 57.8 82.7 70.9 4.3 43.3 173.2 461.2 98.6 38.2 0 65.5 1095.7 1990 0 42.7 48.1 95.5 95.8 138.7 315 421.2 132.6 2.7 0 0 1292.3 1991 13.3 30.4 0 54 0 57 514.1 346 193.9 23.4 0 0 1232.1 1992 14.1 48.6 33.2 56.1 15.9 24.8 204.4 326.7 133.9 50.1 112.9 0 1020.7 1993 0 23.5 11.7 123.3 111.4 48.3 345.5 256.6 194.6 23.6 0 0 1138.5 1994 57.8 82.7 70.9 4.3 43.3 173.2 561.2 98.6 38.2 0 65.5 0 1195.7 1995 0 3.4 53.9 43.9 50.1 26 229.2 342 83.3 0 0 12.8 844.6 1996 25.9 6.7 101.6 11.5 79 191.1 319.9 338.5 104 0 16 0 1194.2 1997 20.3 0 49.3 37.1 40.3 190 344.2 252.5 85 76 46.3 2.1 1143.1 1998 17.4 17.6 28.3 25 73.4 66.8 247.2 355.5 87.1 0 0 0 918.3 1999 7.2 0 0 1.5 10 39.3 297.4 514.6 66.3 151.8 0 1.3 1089.4 2000 0 0 36.1 103.7 88.1 58.6 449.1 311.5 122.1 7.2 32.2 0.4 1209 2001 0 5 45.7 20.5 29.9 96 373.5 266.5 90.9 0.3 0 6.1 934.4 2002 41.6 38.2 44.8 40.8 9.3 39.3 283.9 282.2 121.1 0 0 13.4 914.6 2003 9 54 53.4 61.3 1.5 90.5 308.8 254 139 2.5 0.5 31.2 1005.7 2004 9.2 6.1 21.9 71.5 23.2 96.4 206.8 258.9 142.8 32.6 1.1 0 870.5 2005 18.9 0 53.6 47 97.9 91.1 273.8 328.7 142 15.4 7.4 0 1075.8 2006 12.6 13 96.4 27.8 31.2 103.7 388.9 355.6 166.1 5.4 6.2 0 1206.9 2007 2.4 37 34.5 57.4 24.3 138.7 373.4 299.4 201.7 8 0 0 1176.8 2008 0 0 0 37.8 46.3 96.5 301 313 106.2 13 47.2 0 961 2009 17.7 2.6 25.2 18.1 0 24.6 371.8 285.3 71.6 23.1 1 55.7 896.7 2010 0 37.6 22.1 38.3 57.7 13.5 252.5 369.8 156 1.1 13.2 18.4 980.2 2011 2.6 0 0 0 0 64.6 231.7 362 56 0 0 0 716.9 2012 0 0 0 0 0 104.3 385.1 399 170.8 0 0 5.3 1064.5 2013 1 0.6 21.7 43.8 30.8 91.1 314.7 325.1 114 82.1 0 0 1024.9 2014 4.6 71.1 91.3 109.3 78.9 97.7 110 258 223.4 55 1.6 0.4 1101.3 2015 0 1.3 24.1 0 104 79.5 171.7 281.6 76.4 0 6.8 0 745.4 2016 0 0 44.9 13.5 65 84.4 330.8 360.1 108.1 11.9 9 0 1027.7 2017 0 4.1 25.3 46.4 173.4 6.8 138.9 291.7 27.3 0 0 24.1 738 2018 0 0 3.2 61.7 15.2 171.9 304.2 394 10 25.4 0 0 985.6 2019 0 9.4 83.1 68.2 91.4 132.9 164.7 210.1 2.8 3.4 0 0 766 Total 275.6 593.4 1207 1390.2 1491.6 2680.6 9286.6 9919.9 3465.8 652.2 366.9 236.7 31566.5 Max 57.8 82.7 101.6 123.3 173.4 191.1 561.2 514.6 223.4 151.8 112.9 65.5 1292.3 Min 0 0 0 0 0 6.8 110 98.6 2.8 0 0 0 716.9 Ave 9.19 19.78 40.23 46.34 49.72 89.35 309.55 330.66 115.53 21.74 12.23 7.89 1018.3 SD 13.50 24.09 30.03 33.18 42.66 51.15 103.23 77.40 55.37 33.11 25.01 16.22 157.26 CV 1.47 1.22 0.75 0.72 0.86 0.57 0.33 0.23 0.48 1.52 2.04 2.06 0.15

CONFIRMATION LETTERS

100