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SUMMARY Energy from the Desert Feasibility of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) Systems EDITOR Kosuke Kurokawa Energy from the Desert SUMMARY Energy from the Desert Feasibility of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) Systems EDITOR Kosuke Kurokawa PART THREE: SCENARIO STUDIES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Published by James & James (Science Publishers) Ltd 8–12 Camden High Street, London, NW1 0JH, UK © Photovoltaic Power Systems Executive Committee of the International Energy Agency The moral right of the author has been asserted. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system without permission in writing from the copyright holder and the publisher. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Printed in Hong Kong by H&Y Printing Ltd Cover image: Horizon Stock Images / Michael Simmons Neither the authors nor the publisher make any warranty or representation, expressed or implied, with respect to the information contained in this publication, or assume any liability with respect to the use of, or damages resulting from, this information. Please note: in this publication a comma has been used as a decimal point, according to the ISO standard adopted by the International Energy Agency. CHAPTER ELEVEN: CONCLUSIONS OF PART 1 AND PART 2 Contents Foreword vi Preface vii Task VIII Participants viii COMPREHENSIVE SUMMARY Objective 1 Background and concept of VLS-PV 1 VLS-PV case studies 1 Scenario studies 2 Understandings 2 R ecommendations 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A. Background and concept of VLS-PV 3 A.1 World energy issues 3 A.2 Environmental issues 4 A.3 An overview of photovoltaic technology 5 A.3.1 Technology trends 5 A.3.2 Experiences in operation and maintenance of large-scale PV systems 6 A.3.3 Cost trends 6 A.3.4 Added values of PV systems 7 A.4 World irradiation database 8 A.5 Concept of VLS-PV system 8 A.5.1 Availability of desert area for PV technology 8 A.5.2 VLS-PV concept and definition 9 A.5.3 Potential of VLS-PV: advantages 10 A.5.4 Synthesis in a scenario for the viability of VLS-PV development 10 B. VLS-PV case studies 12 B.1 General information 12 B.2 Preliminary case study of VLS-PV systems in world deserts 12 B.3 Case studies on the Gobi Desert from a life-cycle viewpoint 15 B.4 Case studies on the Sahara Desert 18 B.5 Case studies on the Middle East desert 19 C. Scenario studies and recommendations 21 C.1 Sustainable growth of the VLS-PV system concept 21 C.2 Possible approaches for the future 22 C.3 Financial and organizational sustainability 24 C.4 R ecommendations 25 C.4.1 General understandings 25 C.4.2 Recommendations on a policy level 26 C.4.3 Checklist for specific stakeholders 26 PART THREE: SCENARIO STUDIES AND RECOM M ENDATIONS Foreword The International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power aspects. Besides the specific issues of VLS-PV, the subject Systems Programme, IEA PVPS, is pleased to publish this of long-distance high-voltage transmission is also addressed. study on very large-scale photovoltaic (VLS-PV) systems. This study includes a number of case studies in desert VLS-PV systems have been proposed on different areas around the world. These case studies have been occasions and they may also represent a controversial theme. carried out in order to investigate the VLS-PV concept The present market focus is indeed on small-scale, dis- under specific conditions and to identify some of the local persed stand-alone photovoltaic power systems as well issues that can affect the concept. as small and medium-sized building-integrated grid- I would like to thank the IEA PVPS Task VIII Expert connected photovoltaic power systems. Both applications Group, under the leadership of Prof. K. Kurokawa and Dr have proven large potentials, of which only a very small K. Kato, for an excellent contribution to the subject fraction has been realized until now. However, in the longer investigated. The study provides an objective discussion base term, VLS-PV systems may represent a future option for for VLS-PV systems. This is very much in line with the photovoltaic applications and thereby contribute even more mission of the IEA PVPS Programme, aimed at objective to the world energy supply. analysis and information in different technical and non- For the first time, the present study provides a detailed technical areas of photovoltaic power systems. analysis of all the major issues of such applications. Thanks I hope that this study can stimulate the long-term to the initiative of Japan, Task VIII of the IEA PVPS discussion on the contribution of photovoltaics to the Programme was designed to address these issues in a future energy supply by providing a thorough analysis of comprehensive manner, based on latest scientific and tech- the subject investigated. nological developments and through close international co- operation of experienced experts from different countries. The result is the first concrete set of answers to some of the main questions that have to be addressed in this context. Experience with today’s technology is used, together with future projections, to make quantified estimations regard- Stefan Nowak ing the relevant technical, economic and environmental Chairman, IEA PVPS Programme vi CHAPTER ELEVEN: CONCLUSIONS OF PART 1 AND PART 2 Preface ‘It might be a dream, but …’ has been a motive for con- generally quite limited. Then, too much power generation tinuing our chosen study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic by PV systems becomes worthless. However, world energy Power Generation – VLS-PV. Now, we are confident that needs will grow larger and larger towards the middle of this is not a dream. A desert truly does produce energy. the 21st century. In addition, when global environmental This report deals with one of the promising recommen- issues are considered, it is felt that future options are lim- dations for solving world energy problems in the 21st ited. These circumstances became the backbone and century. motive force for VLS-PV work. This activity first started in 1998 under the umbrella Finally, all the Task VIII experts wish to thank the IEA of IEA Task VI. The new task, Task VIII: ‘Very Large Scale PVPS Executive Committee and the participating coun- PV Power Generation Utilizing Desert Areas’, was set up tries of Task VIII for giving them valuable opportunities for feasibility studies in 1999. for studies. To initiate our study, a lot of imagination was required. It was felt that dreams and imagination are really wel- come, and that it is worth while to consider things for future generations, our children and grandchildren. People have to imagine their lives after 30 or 50 years, Prof. Kosuke Kurokawa even 100 years, since it requires a longer lead-time to Editor realize energy technology. In this sense, studies in terms Operating Agent–Alternate, Task VIII of VLS-PV include plant design by extending present technologies as well as discussing basic requirements for PV energy in the future energy-supplying structure, the social impact on regions, and the local and global environmental impact. It is known that very large deserts in the world have a Dr Kazuhiko Kato large amount of energy-supplying potential. However, Operating Agent, Task VIII unfortunately, around those deserts, the population is vii PART THREE: SCENARIO STUDIES AND RECOM M ENDATIONS Task VIII Participants Kazuhiko Kato, OA New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), Japan Kosuke Kurokawa, OA–Alternate Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology (TUAT), Japan Isaburo Urabe, Secretary Photovoltaics Power Generation Technology R esearch Association (PVTEC), Japan David Collier Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), USA David Faiman Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel Keiichi Komoto Fuji R esearch Institute Corporation (FR IC), Japan Jesus Garcia Martin Iberdrola S.A., Brussels Office, Spain Pietro Menna General Directorate for Energy and Transport – D2, European Commission, Italy Kenji Otani National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Japan Alfonso de Julian Palero Iberdrola, Spain Fabrizio Paletta CESI SFR -ER I, Italy Jinsoo Song Korea Institute of Energy R esearch (KIER ), Korea Leendert Verhoef Verhoef Solar Energy Consultancy, the Netherlands Peter van der Vleuten Free Energy International bv, the Netherlands Namjil Enebish, Observer Department of Fuel and Energy, Ministry of Infrastructure, Mongolia viii Comprehensive Summary Comprehensive summary OBJECTIVE 1,5 USD/ W are projected for 2010, which would enable profitable investment and operation of a 100 MW The scope of this study is to examine and evaluate the plant. potential of very large-scale photovoltaic power genera- • Solar irradiation databases now contain detailed infor- tion (VLS-PV) systems (which have a capacity ranging mation on irradiation in most of the world’s deserts. from several megawatts to gigawatts), by identifying the • The world’s deserts are so large that covering 50 % key factors that enable VLS-PV system feasibility and of them with PV would generate 18 times the world clarifying the benefits of this system’s application to primary energy supply of 1995. neighbouring regions, as well as the potential contribution of system application to protection of the global environ- ment. R enewable energy utilization in the long term also VLS-PV CASE STUDIES will be clarified. Mid- and long-term scenario options for Electricity generation costs of between 0,09 and making VLS-PV systems feasible in some given areas will 0,11 USD/ kWh are shown, depending mainly on annual be proposed. irradiation level (module price 2 USD/ W, interest rate 3 %, In this report, the feasibility and potential for VLS-PV salvage value rate 10 %, depreciation period 30 years).
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