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Special Report on Japanese Yen Special Report on Japanese Yen Tuesday | December 2, 2014 Special Report on Japanese Yen Anish Vyas Research Analyst Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies [email protected] (022) 3935 8104 Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 CX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected] 1 Page www.angelcommodities.com Special Report on Japanese Yen Tuesday | December 2, 2014 Introduction The Japanese Yen which is the official currency of Japan is the third most traded currency in foreign exchange market after United States dollar and Euro. It is used as most widely reserved currency after US Dollar, Euro and Sterling Pound. Symbol Code Yen is pronounced as “en” in Japanese, which means “round” in Japan similar to that as “yuan” in China and “won” in Korea. Initially, Chinese use to trade in mass silver coins and when Spanish and Mexican silver coins arrived the Chinese used to term as silver round known for their circular shapes. The spelling and pronunciation in Standard English is referred as “yen”. It is because mainly English speaking people who visited Japan during the end of Edo period and early Meiji period spelled it that way. In the 16th century, Japanese and Portuguese missionaries used to spell them as “ye”. In 18th century, Walter Henry Medhurst, who had not come to Japan and met any Japanese, had consulted mainly a Japanese-Dutch dictionary, spelled some "e" as "ye" in an English and Japanese, and Japanese and English Vocabulary. In the early Meiji era, James Curtis Hepburn, following Medhurst, spelled all "e" as "ye" in a Japanese and English dictionary. That was the first full-scale Japanese-English/English- Japanese dictionary, which had a strong influence on Westerners in Japan and probably prompted the spelling "yen". Hepburn revised most of "ye" to "e" in the 3rd edition in order to mirror the contemporary pronunciation, except "yen". History How Yen came into existence In the 19th century, silver Spanish dollar coins were common throughout Southeast Asia, Chinese coast and Japan. These coins were introduced through Manila over a period of two hundred and fifty years, arriving on ships from Acapulco in Mexico and those ships were known as the Manila galleons. Until the 19th century, these silver dollar coins were actual Spanish dollars minted in the new world, mostly at Mexico City. But from the 1840, they were replaced by silver dollars of the new Latin American republics. In the latter half of the 19th century, some local coins in the region were made similar to that of Mexican peso. The first of these local silver coins was the Hong Kong silver dollar coin that was minted in Hong Kong between the years 1866 and 1869. The Chinese were slow to accept unfamiliar coinage and preferred the familiar Mexican dollars, and so the Hong Kong government ceased minting these coins and sold the mint machinery to Japan. The Japanese then decided to adopt a silver dollar coinage under the name of 'yen'. The yen was officially adopted by the Meiji government in an Act signed on 10th May 1871. The new currency was gradually introduced beginning from July of the same year. The yen was therefore basically a dollar unit, like all dollars, descended from the Spanish Pieces of eight, and up until the year 1873. The yen replaced Tokugawa coinage, a complex monetary system of the Edo period. The New Currency Act of 1871 stipulated the adoption of the decimal accounting system of yen with the coins being round and 2 manufactured using Western machinery. The yen was legally defined as 0.78 troy ounces (24.26 g) of Page www.angelcommodities.com Special Report on Japanese Yen Tuesday | December 2, 2014 pure silver, or 1.5 grams of pure gold (as recommended by the European Congress of Economists in Paris in 1867. Following the silver devaluation of 1873, the yen devalued against the US dollar and the Canadian dollar units since they adhered to a gold standard, and by the year 1897 the yen was worth about $0.50. In that year, Japan adopted a gold exchange standard and hence froze the value of the yen at $0.50. This exchange rate remained in place until Japan left the gold standard in December 1931, after which the yen fell to $0.30 by July 1932 and to $0.20 by 1933. It remained steady at around $0.30 until the start of the Second World War on December 7, 1941, at which time it fell to $0.23. Fixed Value of Yen to the DX Between 7th December 1941 and 25th April 1949 no true exchange rate existed for the yen and wartime inflation reduced the yen to a fraction of its pre-war value. After a period of instability, on 25th April 1949 the US government fixed the value of the yen at 360 Yen (¥360) per $1 through a plan, which was part of the Bretton Woods System, to stabilize prices in the Japanese economy. That exchange rate was maintained until 1971, when the US abandoned the gold standard, which had been a key element of the Bretton Woods System, and imposed a 10 percent surcharge on imports, setting in motion changes that eventually led to floating exchange rates in 1973. Undervaluing of Yen In the year of 1971, the yen became undervalued. Japanese exports were costing too little in international markets, and imports from abroad were too costly for the Japanese economy. This undervaluation was reflected in the current account balance, which had risen from the deficits in the early 1960 to a large surplus of $5.8 billion in 1971. The belief that the yen, and several other major currencies, were undervalued motivated the US to take actions in 1971. Yen and major floating currencies The US took measures in summer of 1971 to devalue its dollar and the Japanese government agreed to a new fixed exchange rate as part of the Smithsonian Agreement, which was later signed by the end of that year. This agreement set the exchange rate at 308 Yen (¥308) per $1. However, the new fixed rates of the Smithsonian Agreement were difficult to maintain the supply and demand pressures in the foreign-exchange market. In early 1973, the rates were abandoned and the major nations of the world allowed their currencies to float. Japanese government intervention in the currency market In the year of 1970, Japanese government and business persons were concerned that a rise in the value of the yen would hurt export growth by making Japanese products less competitive and would damage the industrial base of the country. The government then continued to intervene heavily in foreign exchange market even after the 1973 decision to allow the yen to float. 3 Page www.angelcommodities.com Special Report on Japanese Yen Tuesday | December 2, 2014 Despite intervention, market pressures caused the yen to continue climbing in value, peaking at an average of 271 Yen (¥271) per $1 in 1973 before the impact of oil crisis was seen in 1973. The increased costs of imported oil caused yen to depreciate to a range of 290 Yen (¥290) to 300 Yen (¥300) between 1974 and 1976. The re-emergence of trade surplus drove the yen back up to 211 Yen (¥211) in 1978. This currency strengthening was again reversed by second oil shock in 1979 which dropped the yen to 227 Yen (¥227) by 1980. Yen in early 1980’s During the first half of the 1980, the yen failed to increase its value in spite of current account surplus. From 221 Yen (¥221) in 1981, the average value of the yen actually dropped to 239 Yen (¥239) in 1985. The rise in the current account surplus generated stronger demand for yen in foreign exchange markets, but this trade related demand for yen was offset by other factors. A wide difference in interest rates with US interest rates much higher than those in Japan, and the constant moves to deregulate the international flow of capital, led to a large net outflow of capital from the Japan. The capital flow increased the supply of yen in foreign-exchange markets, as Japanese investors changed their preference from yen to other currencies which were mainly dollars and invested in overseas market. This kept the yen weak relative to the dollar and fostered the rapid rise in the Japanese trade surplus that took place in the 1980. In 1985 a dramatic change was seen and finance officials from major nations signed an agreement known as the Plaza Accord affirming that the dollar was overvalued and, therefore, the yen was undervalued. This agreement and shifting supply and demand pressures in the markets, led to a rapid rise in the value of the yen. From its average of 239 Yen (¥239) per $1 in 1985, the yen rose to a peak of 128 Yen (¥128) in 1988.
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