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Review of the Tasmanian Wholesale Electricity Market Regulatory Pricing Framework

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Review of the Tasmanian Wholesale Electricity Market Regulatory Pricing Framework Review of the Tasmanian Wholesale Electricity Market Regulatory Pricing Framework FINAL INTERIM REPORT Report to Tasmanian Government, Department of Treasury and Finance from Energy Market Consulting associates March 2018 This report has been prepared to assist the Tasmanian Government, Department of Treasury and Finance, in its Review of the Tasmanian Wholesale Electricity Market Regulatory Pricing Framework. To the extent that this report utilises quantitative data, it relies on information provided to EMCa or obtained from EMCa’s sources. EMCa disclaims liability for any errors or omissions, for the validity of information provided to EMCa by the Tasmanian Government, Department of Treasury and Finance and stakeholders to this review, for the use of any information in this report by any party other than the Tasmanian Government, Department of Treasury and Finance and for the use of this report for any purpose other than the intended purpose. Energy Market Consulting associates 802 / 75 Miller St, North Sydney NSW 2060 and Level 1, Suite 2 572 Hay St, Perth WA 6000 AUSTRALIA Email: [email protected] Web: www.emca.com.au About EMCa Energy Market Consulting associates (EMCa) is a niche firm, established in 2002 and specialising in the policy, strategy, implementation and operation of energy markets and related network management, access and regulatory arrangements. EMCa combines senior energy economic and regulatory management consulting experience with the experience of senior managers with engineering/technical backgrounds in the electricity and gas sectors. Authorship Prepared by: Scott Wallace, Rodney Ward, with analytical support from Samuel Anand Quality approved by: Paul Sell Date saved: 16/11/2018 11:02 AM Version: DRAFT v7 [CONFID ENTIAL] [This page intentionally blank] Review of the WCRI Table of Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Scope ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Approach................................................................................................................ 2 2 Context ..................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Overview of the Tasmanian Electricity Supply Industry ................................... 5 2.2 Interventions to protect Tasmanian customers from high wholesale electricity prices. ................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Related NEM Policy Initiatives ............................................................................. 8 3 Assessment of the effectiveness of the WCRI ................................................... 10 3.1 Spot and Contract Price Trends ...................................................................... 10 3.2 The WCRI Price Mechanism ............................................................................... 18 3.3 Assessment of the WCRI against the evaluation criteria ............................... 30 3.4 Stakeholder Submissions .................................................................................. 39 4 Key Findings ............................................................................................................ 41 4.1 Original Design Intent ......................................................................................... 41 4.2 Tasmanian Government Vision for Energy ...................................................... 42 4.3 Unintended negative consequences or sub-optimal outcomes .................... 44 4.4 Other Design Matters .......................................................................................... 48 5 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 53 5.1 Next Steps ............................................................................................................ 54 Attachment 1 – Illustrative WCRI Flow Chart .......................................................... 55 Review of the WCRI [This page is intentionally blank] Review of WCRI 1 Introduction 1.1 Introduction In October 2017, the Tasmanian Government initiated a review of the Tasmanian Wholesale Electricity Market Regulatory Pricing Framework, the primary element of which is the Wholesale Contract Regulatory Instrument (WCRI), to address concerns that the current framework is transferring mainland wholesale electricity price growth and volatility, caused by mainland-only events, to Tasmanian electricity customers. We have been engaged to assist the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance undertake this review. Since this review was undertaken, there has been a Tasmanian State election, which returned the Tasmanian Liberals, but with a new energy policy. This paper has evaluated the performance of Tasmania’s wholesale pricing arrangements against the Government’s previous energy policies. The findings and learnings from the analysis for this paper will be adapted to the Government’s new energy policies in stage 2 of this review. 1.2 Scope The Terms of Reference for the Review states that key Government expectations for the Review are to: analyse whether the WCRI is operating as intended according to its original design; determine whether the WCRI is producing sub-optimal outcomes or unintended negative consequences; investigate the potential to reduce the impact of mainland wholesale price volatility on the WCRI; investigate alternative wholesale pricing mechanisms which may meet the Government’s objectives; DRAFT Report to Tasmanian Treasury 1 March 2018 Review of WCRI provide options to Government regarding potential improvements to the Tasmanian wholesale electricity market; in conducting the Review, retain the confidence of market participants in the stability of the Tasmanian electricity market and any changes to market settings; and to assist the government in the preparation and release of a consultation paper in relation to key issues. For this Interim Report, the project scope did not include consideration of: changes to Tasmanian industry structure or ownership; or changes to the NEM Rules that would alter economic dispatch and pricing in the Tasmanian Region. 1.3 Approach We have followed the approach illustrated in the figure below in undertaking our assessment of the WCRI. Figure 1: Review approach 1. Desktop Research 2. Analysis, performance evaluation, stakeholder consultation 3. Findings Each of these steps is discussed below. Desktop Research We reviewed relevant reports and analysis identified through desktop analysis, and those flagged by Treasury, Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator, and stakeholders. Analysis, performance evaluation, stakeholder consultation Analysis We undertook analysis of spot and contract price data as described in Section 3. DRAFT Report to Tasmanian Treasury 2 March 2018 Review of WCRI Performance Evaluation We then assessed the performance of the WCRI against the original Regulatory Pricing Framework Design Principles as required by the Terms of Reference. We also assessed the WCRI against the broader Tasmanian Government Vision for energy policy, which includes objectives relating to customers. The Tasmanian Government Vision, as outlined in the Tasmanian Energy Strategy, is to restore energy as a competitive advantage for Tasmania by: delivering affordable energy at competitive and predictable prices that are amongst the lowest in Australia; empowering consumer choice; ensuring an efficient energy sector that is customer focussed; utilising energy to facilitate State growth; and maximising Tasmania’s renewable energy opportunities. The WCRI was developed in accordance with the following design principles: market participants should have confidence that they can manage their wholesale risks appropriately in Tasmania; the risks of operation in the Tasmanian market should be no greater than those in other jurisdictions in the NEM; market participants should have flexibility to manage wholesale market risk using similar business models to those used in other NEM jurisdictions; the framework should not unduly constrain Tasmania’s ability to maximise carbon value accessed through Basslink; and the reform option should recognise the interaction between spot and contract markets without creating unintended incentives or consequences. Stakeholder Consultation We met with the following key stakeholders: Tasmanian Department Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance of State Growth Office of the Tasmanian Hydro Tasmania Economic Regulator Aurora Energy ERM Business Energy DRAFT Report to Tasmanian Treasury 3 March 2018 Review of WCRI We considered written submissions, which were provided by the following stakeholders: Climate Capital1 Hydro Tasmania Aurora Energy Australian Energy Council (AEC)2 Findings In this interim report we make findings from our assessment of the performance of the WCRI to date and also highlight areas for further investigation where we consider there could be scope to make improvements to the WCRI consistent with the Tasmanian Government’s new energy policy. Our findings are based on the analysis, performance evaluation and stakeholder consultation described above. 1 “Climate
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