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The Population of Egypt •*'.• World Population Year THE POPULATION OF EGYPT •*'.•"" - THE POPULATION OF THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT PREPARED BY INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL STUDIES AM) RESEARCH (DR. ATEF M. «3IALIFA) (CAIRO, 1973) ••/''- The views expressed in this publication are these of the authors and not necessa- rily those of either the United Nations or the authorities concerned in the Arab Republic of Egypt. ' • THE POPUUTION OF THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT FORWARD BY Professor Dr. A. E. SARHAN Dean of the I.S.S.R. Cairo University PREPARED BY Dr. ATEF M. KHALIFA lecturtfr of Deaography Director of the Population Studies Unit Institute of Statistical Studies ( Research ASSISTED BY Mrs. Hoda Rachad Mr. M.G. El Rouby Graduate Assistants in Deaography at the I.S.S.R., CAIRO UNIVERSITY *1. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To Dr. A.E. SARHAN, the Dean of the Institute, I express ny indeptedness for his inspiring guidance and continous support of this project. -\ To Dr. BINDARY, Chairman of the Board for Population and Family Planning, Dr. A. OMRAN, Carolina Population Center, Dr. A. NASSEF, Institute of National Planning and Dr. M. HERZE, Expert in the Board for Family Planning, I would like to express ny grati- tude for the time and interest they took in answering my questions and making.data available which made ny task easier. ' ATEF H. KHALIFA •-* ; THE POPULATION OF ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT ' CONTEXTS Page Chapter I POPULATION GROWTR 1 Chapter II COSKííiENTS OF GROWTH A. fertility 7 B. Mortality 13 C. International Bijeatioa ¿7 Chapter III P0PULA7MN COMPOSITION A Age aa<t. S«* Composition 22 a. marital Staras 73 ChapteCr. IrioussboldV and raailjr 31 0. education 33 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION I INTERNAL MIGRATION Iat«rnal Migratory Koreaents . " Ï1 iteration b«tv««a tor«rnaP3t8» *! Migration to Cairo «7 Migrant! by Age and Sex ' *3 Chapter V THE LAÍ30UR FORCE Labour force by Age c.üv ;'';^Í S3 Labour force by Ccouc<:ic ¿sti*itics 55 Labour force by Occupations S3 Eaploysent Statu* 61 Educational Status 6« Chapter VI POPULATION PROJECTIONS Introduction 66 Projection of the Total Population CI Projection» by Broad Age Croups ' 68 Projection of Labour Force 72 FOREHARD The population problem is now one of the most acute one in the world. People who are concerned with the economic and social deve- lopment of nations are at the same time concerned with population growth. U'hen CICRED-invited us to write the present monograph, we welcomed the idea. In fact, we felt for long that the population issue needed a systematic look within an international framework. We also feel very happy that we aTe contributing to the World Popu- lation Year (1974). The present monograph was written by our.~s.taff in the Demography Unit of the Institute of Statistical Studies*5 Research. Dr. Atef Khalifa has presented a systematic and comprehensive view of the population growth trends in the past and its projections in the."fu- ture. The present monograph deals with many issues in regards to population composition, population distribution and internal migra- tion, the labour force, population projection, and finally economic and social implications and policy. Our appreciation and thanks, must go to CICRED and in particu- lar Professor JEAN EOURGEOIS-PICHAT, Chairman, who offered us the chance. A.E. SARHAN, Dean- Institute of Statistical Studies Ç Research. Oct., 1973. Chapter VII ECONOMIC & SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS 5 POLICY . A. Introduction 7<t B. Economic Background . 76 C. Social Background 80 0. Socio- Economic Implications £ Population Growth . '83 E. Basic Characteristics of the Development ;' Plan (1973-1982) . 87 F. Population Policy as an Element in Social £ Economic Policy 89 i) Family Planning "'•'".-. 89 - Population Targets (1973-1982) . 91 - Family Planning Through Development 93 ii) :nternal Migration 97 iii) External Migration ' 97 Appendix A . ' SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC. DATA 99 Appendix B DETAILED TABULATIONS 102 CHAPTER I POPULATION 6RUhTh Th« Arai» À-puSIie of Egypt (A.R.£.) occupies the Northeastern corner of tht Arriban continent and her area is approxinately 3*6.100 square ail««, ¿ut about 95 percent of tbis area is desert. »be desert and the Nile not only describe the physical characteris- tics but also set the pattern of the Egyptian population living in tbe Delta and in the narrow fertile strip of land bordering the Kile, which is called the Valley. ihe total area under cultivation is ap- proximately 3% of the total The population of Egypt during ancient and aedievel times has been variously estimated from 3 to 24 aillions. However, it is doubt- ful that it exceeded 7 or 8 Billions at any point in those periods." Either tbe long centuries of Haaluks* aisrule combined with the di- version of the trade routes linking Europe with India caused popu- lation to drop greatly to estiaated 2.S aillions by tbe end of the y eighteenth century,' or the previous earlier estiaates were exagge- rated. 1. C.V. Kiser.The D«aogra?:-.i. : Position of Egypt", Pea. Studies of Selected Areas of Hapii Growth, Ji.Y.: Milbanic Men. fund, 13<*n. 2. C.H. Issawi,"Populatisa *sd Wealth in Egypt", in J. Spengler and 0.0. Cunean (eds), Ue^ograpnic Analysis ; Selected 3eadiazs. deacon«. 111 : The Free Press, 1957. In 16*43, an «etieate based on a census of house« showed Egypt's 3/ population to be 4.5 millions. This suggests that there night have basa an increase of roughly 2 uillions over the population of the pr«cediai-««tttury-;—If 3o~it wàs~-dua-to the econonic growth and the law and ordar that prevailed in Mohamad All's reign in the first half of the nineteenth century. ••• fhe first national population census was taken in 1882 and the second in 1897; census followed eveTy ten years up to 1947. Two nore censuses have been taken.since then, one in 1960 and the other in 1966. Table (1-1) below «hows the distribution of the total po- pulation by sex and annual rate of increase in intercensus years. Fron the table (1-1) we notice that the population of Egypt has increased steadily fron about 10 to 30 aillions in a period of -about 70 years. It can be seen that the annual rates of growth are quite consistant, and froa 1907 to 1937 are nearly constant. A sudden rise is observed for the period 1937-1947. Some demographers interpreted this rise by the existesca of over-enumeration in the ••.•'"S/ 1947 census. Tha evidence provided by the censuses of 1960 and 1/ 1966 leads us to accept tha 1947 enumeration' as correct.' Assuaing that the growth curve of the population of Egypt is approximately 3. Institute of National Planning,"Problems of Under-employmant in - • rural Egypt", Report A., Cairo, 1965» pp.6. 4. H.A. El Badry."Some Demographic Heasuremants for Egypt Based on Stability of Census Age Distribution", tUlbank Manorial Fund Quarterly. 195S, pp.26S-3GS. 5. K.S,' Khodary,"Use of Census Age Distribution for Estimating Basic .. Demographic Parameters of th« U.A.R.", in.Demographic Measures t Population Growth in Az-ah Caof.tfiea. Cairo' Demographic Center, No.l. 1970. ' • *- l' i - 'a p«ra>ola, it waa fosad tkat tfe« 19*7 -total -&«{uU4tia» *aa «t froa a parafai« fitted te total popalatiata _fe .¿947 , 1960 and 1966 is T«ry aaarly tba ***• a* ti« enaa«rat«d 19*7 population.~ " • • ' ' ••'*---'•• •„ ' ..>.• ^,,.r¡ Zt sboold also b« aot«4 that allcaa conatitvt« m-*wj low per- ccatag« «f total popnlatiea (about 0.77%, O.SSt ia 19*7 and 1960 r«*p«ctir«ly). Tal>f 1-1 Popalatioo i« th« Canana Taara and ita Katta Growth Is Zatarcaaaua Taara* Taar Population (000 *')':,<*£- Annual rat« of Hala Jotal growth 1882 33*5 3367 £712 1897 »91* »755 9669 • --;:;"•; . 1907 S917 5S73 10191 i.« :1917 6369 63*9 1271« 1.3 . 1927 7057 7120 1*178 1.1 *1937 7967 795* 15921 1.2 19»7 9392 9575 18967 1.9'-•'••- 1960 13118 12967 26005 1966 15176 1*900 30076 2.6 •Sourc«; Caatral Agancjr for Statistics, Stat. Yearbook. 1969, pp.1* •• Tb* 1882 cansua vas carried oat during tn« hasardons and unstabla pariod is «hieb tnara *** nationalistic aovaacnt with a strong opposition to th« nan British occopation of Egypt, furthtnor*, it was Egypt's first attsapt ia aodara tiaas to aak« aa official coust. It ia usuallj.regarded aa aa nnd«rcount. 6. Ibid. p».2Sl Frojeclioaa «f tho futur« estimates «start that the population will jusjp to about «0, »5 and 52 aillions in th« years 1975, 1980, 4B4 1915 respect iYely."V" This a«ans that the population will alaost doubl« «vary 25_yoara. Eartillty-than aost declina or pc^.lation laeraasa «ill pat as excessive bordea as all modernization plans. Continuing daelina in aortality aaxea fertility daelin« aran aora imperative ia tha short aa wall as tha long rua. Tabla (1-2) balo« shows both rataa ia diffarant years (1906.19S8). Tha saaa data have baaa presented graphically la Figura (Z-1). Treat tabla (1-2) and Figure (1-1) balow, wa notice that the birth rates ara fluctuating around tha rata of »1 or 42 par thousand with na significant change since th« beginning of the present cen- tury. However, a small but possibly aigaifleant decline can be no- ticed starting ia the year 1960, when th« birth rate startad to decline froa 13.« ia 1961 to 38.2 par thousand in 1968. »hile tha birth rate has ahowa this relative stability, tha death rate has rapidly declined Í- • .a 28 per thousand in the firat- dacada of tha century to about IS par rhouaaad ia the I9601«. Tha really sharp decline started in the late 19"»0'» («aa Figure 1); Of course, this lad to a sharp increase in the rate of natural in- crease which reached ITS aaziaua lavel in 1961 (28 par thousand).
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