Accepted Manuscript, please cite as: Allen, C., Metternicht, G., Wiedmann, T. and Pedercini, M. (2019) Greater gains for Australia by tackling all SDGs but the last steps will be the most challenging. Nature Sustainability, 2, 1041-1050. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0409-9 and https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0409-9 Greater gains for Australia by tackling SDGs together but final steps most challenging Cameron Allen1,*, Graciela Metternicht1, Thomas Wiedmann2,3, Matteo Pedercini4 1 School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, PANGEA Centre, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. 2 Sustainability Assessment Program, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. 3 ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia 4 Millennium Institute, Arlington, VA, USA * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail:
[email protected] Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); scenarios; pathways; modelling; sustainaBility science; policy coherence; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) comBine complex interlinkages, future uncertainty, and transformational change. Recent studies highlight that trade-offs between SDG targets may undermine their achievement. Significant gaps remain in scenario frameworks and modelling capaBilities. We develop a novel approach nesting national SDG scenario modelling within the gloBal Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, selecting Australia as a use case. The iSDG-Australia model is used to project four alternative scenarios adopting different development approaches. We find that Australia is off-track to achieve the SDGs By 2030, however significant progress is possible by altering Australia’s development trajectory. A ‘Sustainability Transition’ comprising a coherent set of policies and investments delivers rapid and balanced progress of 70% towards SDG targets by 2030, well-ahead of the Business-as-Usual scenario (40%).