DOCSLIB.ORG

Public Risk Perceptions, Understandings and Responses to Climate Change in Australia and Great Britain Final Report

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Public Risk Perceptions, Understandings and Responses to Climate Change in Australia and Great Britain Final Report Public Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses to Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Australia and Great Britain Author Reser, Joseph, Bradley, Graham, Glendon, Ian, Ellul, Michelle, Callaghan, Rochelle Published 2012 Copyright Statement © The Author(s) 2012. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version. Downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10072/49216 Link to published version https://nccarf.edu.au/public-risk-perceptions-understandings-and-responses-climate-change- and-natural-disaster-0/ Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au Public Risk Perceptions, Understandings and Responses to Climate Change in Australia and Great Britain Final Report Joseph P. Reser, Graham L. Bradley, A. Ian Glendon, Michelle C. Ellul and Rochelle Callaghan Images: Timothy Swinson and Griffith University Climate Change Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) ISBN: 978-1-921609-54-1 NCCARF Publication number 17/12 © Griffith University, 2012 Please use the following reference when citing this report: Reser, J. P., Bradley, G. L., Glendon, A. I., Ellul, M. C., & Callaghan, R. (2012). Public Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses to Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Australia and Great Britain, Gold Coast, Australia: National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research reported in this document was principally funded with the assistance of the Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency’s Climate Change Adaptation Research Grants Program (NCCARF), with further support and funding from the Understanding Risk Research Centre of Cardiff University, the Griffith University Climate Change Response Program (GCCRP), the Behavioural Basis of Health (BBH) Research Centre at Griffith University, Griffith University’s Centre for Work, Organisation and Wellbeing (WOW), and the Australian Psychological Society (APS). DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this report are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained therein. While every effort has been made by the authors to ensure that the contents of this report are factually correct, neither NCCARF nor the authors accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this Report, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this report. i Public Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses to Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Australia and Great Britain Joseph P. Reser, Graham L. Bradley, A. Ian, Glendon, Michelle C. Ellul, & Rochelle Callaghan School of Applied Psychology, Behavioural Basis of Health, Griffith Climate Change Response Program (GCCRP), National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) Griffith University, April 2012 Climate Change Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses SUMMARY STATEMENT This final report presents and discusses national survey findings from a collaborative and cross-national research project undertaken by Griffith University (Australia) and Cardiff University (UK) examining public risk perceptions, understandings and responses to the threat and unfolding impacts of climate change in Australia and Great Britain. The Australian national survey was undertaken between 6 June and 6 July, 2010 and involved a representative and geographically and demographically stratified national sample of 3096 respondents. The British survey was undertaken between 6 January and 26 March, 2010 and involved a representative quota sample of 1822 respondents residing in England, Scotland and Wales. These articulated surveys were distinctive in their cross-national comparative collaboration, in their psychological and social science nature, focus, and design, in their in- depth nature, and in their focus on underlying public understandings and psychological responses to climate change. This report addresses common findings from these two linked surveys, and expands discussion of issues and findings from the Australian survey. A report detailing the UK survey findings is available separately (Spence, Venables, Pidgeon, Poortinga, & Demski, 2010). As well as shared questions and objectives, each survey had additional and differing objectives, with the Australian survey also examining in more detail public risk perceptions, direct exposure and experience, and psychological responses and impacts to natural disasters. The British survey examined in more detail respondents’ perceptions of energy policies and futures for the United Kingdom. The Australian survey also differed in that it was specifically designed and planned to establish a data base and research platform for documenting and monitoring climate-related changes and impacts in the human landscape over time, including changes in risk perceptions and understandings, psychological responses, and changes in psychological adaptations and impacts. Public Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses to Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Australia and Great Britain At a sample size of 3,096 and assuming random selection, reported proportions are accurate to within maximum of +1.76%. (Illustrative 95% confidence intervals are 1.06% at a 10% or 90% finding, 1.61% at a 30%/70% finding, and 1.76% at a 50%/50% finding). NOTE: All results show percentages among all respondents, unless otherwise labeled. Totals may occasionally sum to more than 100 percent due to rounding. ii Climate Change Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses iii Climate Change Risk Perceptions, Understandings, and Responses Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................................ i Disclaimer ............................................................................................................................................................... i Summary statement .............................................................................................................................................. ii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 11 Principal findings ............................................................................................................................................. 11 Additional cross-national findings .............................................................................................................. 12 Australia-specific research findings: ........................................................................................................... 13 Background ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Research and policy contexts ........................................................................................................................... 19 Respective demographic and geographic profiles ............................................................................................ 23 Overview of the content and scope of the survey........................................................................................ 26 Organisational guide to remainder of report ............................................................................................... 27 Composite variables .................................................................................................................................... 28 Research Findings .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Energy futures .................................................................................................................................................. 30 Alternative energy sources .......................................................................................................................... 30 Nuclear power ............................................................................................................................................. 31 Voting preferences with respect to energy options ..................................................................................... 32 Climate change beliefs and understandings ..................................................................................................... 34 Belief that the world’s climate is changing ................................................................................................. 34 Composite measure of belief ....................................................................................................................... 36 Demographic analyses ................................................................................................................................ 36 Correlational analyses ................................................................................................................................. 36 Summary ....................................................................................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • ROMAHDUS Vipu
    ROMAHDUS ViPu Lokakuu 2014 1 Sisällys Lukijalle……………………………………………………… 2 1 Mikä romahdus?…………………………………………… 2 2 Romahduksen lajeista……………………………………… 6 3 Romahduksen vaiheista…………………………………… 15 4 Teoreetikkoja ja näkemyksiä……………………………… 17 5 Romahdus—maailmanloppu, apokalypsi, kriisi, utopia… 25 6 Romahdus ja selviytyminen………………………………. 29 7 Pitääkö romahdusta jouduttaa?…………………………… 44 8 Romahdus, tieto ja hallinta………………………………… 49 9 Romahdus ja politiikka…………………………………….. 53 2 Lukijalle Tämä teksti on osa pohdiskelua, jonka tarkoituksena on luoda pohjaa Vihreän Puolueen poliittiselle toiminnalle. Tekstin aiheena on jo monin paikoin ja tavoin alkanut teollisten sivilisaatioiden ja modernismin kehityskertomuksen romahdus. Tekstin ensimmäiset 8 lukua käsittelevät erilaisia teorioita, käsityksiä ja vapaampaankin ajatuksenlentoon nojaavia näkökulmia romahdukseen. Ne eivät siis missään nimessä edusta ViPun poliittisia käsityksiä tai tavotteita, vaan pohjustavat alustavia poliittisia johtopäätöksiä, jotka esitetään luvussa 9. Toisin sanoen luvut 1-8 pyörittelevät aihetta suuntaan ja toiseen ja luku 9 esittää välitilinpäätöksen, jonka on edelleen tarkoitus tarkentua ja elää tilanteen mukaan. Tätä romahdus-osiota on myös tarkoitus lukea muiden ViPun teoreettisten tekstien kanssa, niiden ristivalotuksessa. 1 Mikä romahdus? Motto: "Yhden maailman loppu on toisen maailman alku, yhden maailmanloppu on toisen maailmanalku." Moton sanaleikin tarkoitus on huomauttaa, että vaikka yhteiskunnan romahdus onkin yksilön ja ryhmän näkökulmasta vääjäämätön tapahtuma, johon
    [Show full text]
  • Anthropogenic Climate Change – Fact Or Fiction? an Academic’S Analysis
    The Business and Management Review, Volume 7 Number 3 April 2016 Anthropogenic climate change – fact or fiction? an academic’s analysis Robert Halliman, Ed.D Department of Public Management & Criminal Justice School of Technology & Public Management Austin Peay State University Fort Campbell Center, USA Abstract The debate over anthropogenic climate change is not settled. More and more scientists are coming out against it and the evidence against it seems to be pouring in. Warnings of global warming and climate change have the appearance of being driven more by an ideological agenda than by science. Introduction The Pope has spoken. If the world’s leaders do not agree to halt carbon emissions and stop global warming, it would be suicide. Obama says the Paris climate summit is a strong rebuke to terrorists. Obama also says that climate change is a more important national security issue than Islamic terrorism. This is the same Obama that said ISIS is the Junior varsity of terrorists and that ISIS was contained. Then the Paris attacks occurred, and then the attacks in San Bernadino, California. Just as Obama has been wrong about ISIS, is he wrong about climate change? A first response to this paper may be to question its need. After all, isn’t anthropogenic global warming (AGW) a fact? The simple answer is that, contrary to the statement of President Obama, the debate over anthropogenic global warming, aka climate change, is not settled. There is a growing body of scientists and academics worldwide who are coming out against the claims that man-made emissions of CO 2 are causing drastic shifts in climate that are behind recent extreme weather events, and against the prediction of more devastation to come unless mankind steps up to stop the harmful emissions.
    [Show full text]
  • Artist Catalogue
    NOBODY, NOWHERE THE LAST MAN (1805) THE END OF THE WORLD (1916) END OF THE WORLD (1931) DELUGE (1933) THINGS TO COME (1936) PEACE ON EARTH (1939) FIVE (1951) WHEN WORLDS COLLIDE (1951) THE WAR OF THE WORLDS (1953) ROBOT MONSTER (1953) DAY THE WORLD ENDED (1955) KISS ME DEADLY (1955) FORBIDDEN PLANET (1956) INVASION OF THE BODY SNATCHERS (1956) WORLD WITHOUT END (1956) THE LOST MISSILE (1958) ON THE BEACH (1959) THE WORLD, THE FLESH AND THE DEVIL (1959) THE GIANT BEHEMOTH (1959) THE TIME MACHINE (1960) BEYOND THE TIME BAR- RIER (1960) LAST WOMAN ON EARTH (1960) BATTLE OF THE WORLDS (1961) THE LAST WAR (1961) THE DAY THE EARTH CAUGHT FIRE (1961) THE DAY OF THE TRIFFIDS (1962) LA JETÉE (1962) PAN- IC IN YEAR ZERO! (1962) THE CREATION OF THE HUMANOIDS (1962) THIS IS NOT A TEST (1962) LA JETÉE (1963) FAIL-SAFE (1964) WHAT IS LIFE? THE TIME TRAVELERS (1964) THE LAST MAN ON EARTH (1964) DR. STRANGELOVE OR: HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE THE BOMB (1964) THE DAY THE EARTH CAUGHT FIRE (1964) CRACK IN THE WORLD (1965) DALEKS – INVASION EARTH: 2150 A.D. (1966) THE WAR GAME (1965) IN THE YEAR 2889 (1967) LATE AUGUST AT THE HOTEL OZONE (1967) NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD (1968) PLANET OF THE APES (1968) THE BED-SITTING ROOM (1969) THE SEED OF MAN (1969) COLOSSUS: THE FORBIN PROJECT (1970) BE- NEATH THE PLANET OF THE APES (1970) NO BLADE OF GRASS (1970) GAS-S-S-S (1970) THE ANDROM- EDA STRAIN (1971) THE OMEGA MAN (1971) GLEN AND RANDA (1971) ESCAPE FROM THE PLANET OF THE APES (1971) SILENT RUNNING (1972) DO WE HAVE FREE WILL? BEWARE! THE BLOB (1972)
    [Show full text]
  • Health, Climate and Economic Risks of the Carmichael Coalmine
    RISKY BUSINESS: HEALTH, CLIMATE AND ECONOMIC RISKS OF THE CARMICHAEL COALMINE CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Thank you for supporting the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-24-4 (print) 978-1-925573-25-1 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2017 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Risky Business: Health, Climate and Economic Risks of the Carmichael Coalmine by Professor Will Stefen, Professor Hilary Bambrick, Dr. David Alexander and Dr. Martin Rice. — Image credit: Cover Photo - Abbot Point Coal Terminal, Greenpeace This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected] twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au Preface The Carmichael mine will be Australia’s largest coalmine with a potential lifetime of up to 60 years. Australia has very large coal deposits, but for Australia to play its role in tackling climate change, over 90% of Australia’s existing thermal coal reserves must be left in the ground unburned and no new thermal mines can be developed.
    [Show full text]
  • Inclusive Education in Australia: Rhetoric, Reality and the Road Ahead
    bs_bs_banner INCLUSIVE EDUCATION IN AUSTRALIA Inclusive education in Australia: rhetoric, reality and the road ahead JOANNA ANDERSON and CHRISTOPHER BOYLE Inclusive education (IE) is a term that has been part of the educational discourse in Australia for almost two decades. While there is no overarching definition under which IE operates in that country, it is accepted that the meaning behind the term has shifted from being exclusively about students with a disability to now encompassing the delivery of a high-quality edu- cation to all students. The public education system is carrying the burden of an increasingly diverse student population (Gonski et al., 2011), and as such, each of the eight educational jurisdictions responsible for the schools within their borders have developed policies and increased funding levels in the name of IE (Graham, in press). Despite this, there are currently no standards or guidelines provided at the state or federal level to measure the success (or not) of IE practices within Australian educational sectors. This article aims to do just that, by providing a ‘report card’ on IE in Australia. An extensive review of the current literature and related educational policies and reports was conducted, and Loreman’s (2014) three guides for mea- suring IE – student participation, student achievement and post-school options – were adopted to evaluate the performance of Australia’s public education system. The findings indicate that, despite operating under the same national legislative acts, the eight educational jurisdictions in Australia are managing and enacting IE in different ways, leading to inconsistent levels of access and educational outcomes for students.
    [Show full text]
  • Picture As Pdf Download
    EDITORIALS Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities forgotten in new Australian National Action Plan for Human Influenza Pandemic: “Ask us, listen to us, share with us” Adrian Miller and David N Durrheim on behalf of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Community Influenza Study Group The epidemiology of influenza pandemics demands that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people occupy centrestage in future planning he first wave of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza Strait Islander communities and their prioritisation in future (pH1N1) broke more heavily on Australia’s Aboriginal and pandemic planning. We should not have been surprised, as history T Torres Strait Islander populations than on non-Indigenous tragically demonstrates disproportionate morbidity and mortality Australians. The burden of disease in Aboriginal and Torres Strait for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in previous Islander people was highlighted by the first Australian death pandemics.6 associated with pH1N1 infection: a young Aboriginal man from a It is thus exceedingly disappointing to discover no mention of remote area of Western Australia who died on 19 June 2009 in an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians in the revised 1 Adelaide hospital. The differences between the populations are National Action Plan for Human Influenza Pandemic (NAP).7 The stark, with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people indisput- 2010 NAP fails to identify Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander ably over-represented in severe pH1N1 disease. In
    [Show full text]
  • Currency Demand During the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia
    Research Discussion Paper Currency Demand during the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia Tom Cusbert and Thomas Rohling RDP 2013-01 The Discussion Paper series is intended to make the results of the current economic research within the Reserve Bank available to other economists. Its aim is to present preliminary results of research so as to encourage discussion and comment. Views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Reserve Bank. Use of any results from this paper should clearly attribute the work to the authors and not to the Reserve Bank of Australia. The contents of this publication shall not be reproduced, sold or distributed without the prior consent of the Reserve Bank of Australia. ISSN 1320-7229 (Print) ISSN 1448-5109 (Online) Currency Demand during the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia Tom Cusbert* and Thomas Rohling** Research Discussion Paper 2013-01 January 2013 *Economic Research Department **Note Issue Department Reserve Bank of Australia We thank Michael Andersen, Michele Bullock, Alex Heath, Jonathan Kearns, Christopher Kent, Michael Plumb, Alexandra Rush and Peter Tulip for their comments and especially thank Rohan Alexander, who was integral to the initial stages of this project. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The authors are solely responsible for any errors. Authors: cusbertt and rohlingt at domain rba.gov.au Media Office: [email protected] Abstract Australian financial institutions remained healthy throughout the global financial crisis and their deposits were guaranteed by the Federal Government.
    [Show full text]
  • International Student Welfare in Australia
    International Student Welfare in Australia July 2012 Daniel Pejic Completed in conjunction with International Social Service Australia and the School of Social and Political Sciences University of Melbourne International Social Service (ISS) Australia International Student Welfare in Australia Researched and written by Daniel Pejic for ISS Australia. With thanks to the University of Melbourne, School of Social and Political Sciences. © 2012 International Social Service Australia This work is copyright. You may download, display, print and reproduce this material in unaltered form only for personal, non-commercial uses or use within your organisation. Requests for further use should be directed to International Social Service Australia. International Social Service Australia ABN 12 004 508 641 National Office: Level 2, 313-315 Flinders Lane Melbourne VIC 3000 Australia Tel: +61 3 9614 8755 Fax: +61 3 9614 8766 Email: [email protected] NSW Office: Level 1, 518 Kent St Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Tel: +61 2 9267 0300 Fax: +61 2 9267 3886 Email: [email protected] Web: www.iss.org.au Defending children ● connecting families ● across the world International Student Welfare in Australia 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................4 Introduction .....................................................................................................................5 Scope of the project ......................................................................................................10
    [Show full text]
  • The Economic Impact of Vision Loss in Australia in 2009
    Clear Focus The Economic Impact of Vision Loss in Australia in 2009 A report prepared for Vision 2020 Australia by Access Economics Pty Limited June 2010 © Access Economics Pty Limited This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, news reporting, criticism or review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes provided acknowledgment of the source is included. Permission for any more extensive reproduction must be obtained from Access Economics Pty Limited through the contact officer listed for this report. Disclaimer While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document and any attachments, the uncertain nature of economic data, forecasting and analysis means that Access Economics Pty Limited is unable to make any warranties in relation to the information contained herein. Access Economics Pty Limited, its employees and agents disclaim liability for any loss or damage which may arise as a consequence of any person relying on the information contained in this document and any attachments. Access Economics Pty Limited ABN 82 113 621 361 www.AccessEconomics.com.au CANBERRA MELBOURNE SYDNEY Level 1 Level 27 Suite 1401, Level 14 9 Sydney Avenue 150 Lonsdale Street 68 Pitt Street Barton ACT 2600 Melbourne VIC 3000 Sydney NSW 2000 T: +61 2 6175 2000 T: +61 3 9659 8300 T: +61 2 9376 2500 F: +61 2 6175 2001 F: +61 3 9659 8301 F: +61 3 9376 2501 For information on this report please contact Lynne Pezzullo or Penny Taylor E: [email protected] Report prepared by Penny Taylor Anam Bilgrami 2 Cost of vision loss This report has been prepared by Vision 2020 Australia, in collaboration with Access Economics and the project steering committee.
    [Show full text]
  • Australian Higher Education: Regional Universities Under a Coalition Government
    AUSTRALIAN UNIVERSITIES’ REVIEW Australian higher education: regional universities under a Coalition Government Dominic O’Sullivan Charles Sturt University Projected student enrolment growth places the Australian higher education system on the precipice of significant change, leading to philosophical debates about how the system should respond. One suggested policy change is that resources be redirected from non-research intensive regional universities to other providers. The Liberal Party is the senior partner in any future Coalition Government, and its education spokesperson has outlined a vision for Australian higher education which contemplates the closure of some regional universities and the diminution in status of others to teaching-only institutions. However, the Liberal Party’s policy proposals are likely to be countered by political and economic considerations that make them unlikely to succeed. The confidence in regional universities’ continuance as both teaching and research institutions expressed in this article is presented not as an apology for their public support, but as a pragmatic demonstration that there are sufficient market and political rationales to protect and justify their presence and form. Introduction some, and diminution in status to teaching-only institu- tions for others (Pyne, 2011). However, Pyne’s suggestions Projected student enrolment growth (Birrell & Edwards, are countered by political and economic considerations 2009) places the Australian higher education system on that make his ‘reforming zeal’ unlikely to succeed. Among the precipice of significant change, leading to philosophi- the most important considerations is that the Liberal Par- cal debates about how the system should respond. One ty’s Coalition partner, the National Party – with which the of the suggested changes is that resources be redirected Liberal Party functions as a conservative bloc in parliamen- from non-research intensive regional universities to other tary politics, and to which it has a long-standing commit- providers.
    [Show full text]
  • Effectiveness of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Against Pandemic (H1N1)
    Effectiveness of Seasonal Infl uenza Vaccine against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus, Australia, 2010 James E. Fielding, Kristina A. Grant, Katherine Garcia, and Heath A. Kelly To estimate effectiveness of seasonal trivalent and September 30, 2009, through December 31, 2010, and monovalent infl uenza vaccines against pandemic infl uenza vaccination was publicly funded for all persons in Australia A (H1N1) 2009 virus, we conducted a test-negative case– >6 months of age (4,5). control study in Victoria, Australia, in 2010. Patients seen In September 2009, the World Health Organization for infl uenza-like illness by general practitioners in a recommended that trivalent infl uenza vaccines for use in sentinel surveillance network during 2010 were tested for the 2010 infl uenza season (Southern Hemisphere winter) infl uenza; vaccination status was recorded. Case-patients had positive PCRs for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, and contain A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)–like virus, A/ controls had negative infl uenza test results. Of 319 eligible Perth/16/2009 (H3N2)–like virus, and B/Brisbane/60/2008 patients, test results for 139 (44%) were pandemic (H1N1) (of the B/Victoria/2/87 lineage) virus (6). Since March 2009 virus positive. Adjusted effectiveness of seasonal 2010, the Australian Government has provided free vaccine against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus was 79% seasonal infl uenza vaccination to all Australia residents (95% confi dence interval 33%–93%); effectiveness of >65 years of age, all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander monovalent vaccine was 47% and not statistically signifi cant. persons >50 years, all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Vaccine effectiveness was higher among adults.
    [Show full text]
  • Risk-Based Surveillance of Avian Influenza in Australia's Wild Birds
    CSIRO PUBLISHING Wildlife Research, 2010, 37, 134–144 www.publish.csiro.au/journals/wr Risk-based surveillance of avian influenza in Australia’s wild birds John P. Tracey Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre, Vertebrate Pest Research Unit, Industry & Investment NSW, Forest Road, Orange, New South Wales 2800, Australia. Email: [email protected] Abstract Context. The epidemiology of avian influenza and the ecology of wild birds are inextricably linked. An understanding of both is essential in assessing and managing the risks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Aims. This project investigates the abundance, movements and breeding ecology of Australia’s Anseriformes in relation to the prevalence of low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) and provides risk profiles to improve the efficiency and relevance of wild-bird surveillance. Methods. Generalised linear models and analysis of variance were used to examine the determinants of Anseriformes abundance and movements in Australia, and the observed prevalence of LPAI in Australia (n = 33 139) and overseas (n = 93 344). Risk profiles were developed using poultry density, estimated LPAI prevalence, the abundance of Anseriformes, and the probability of Anseriformes moving from areas of HPAI epizootics. Key results. Analysis of Australian wild-bird surveillance data strongly supports other studies that have found the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds to be much lower (1%) in Australia than that in other countries (4.7%). LPAI prevalence was highly variable among sampling periods and locations and significantly higher in dabbling ducks than in other functional groups. Trends in Anseriformes movements, abundance and breeding are also variable, and correlated with rainfall, which could explain low prevalence and the failure to detect seasonal differences in LPAI in wild birds.
    [Show full text]