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Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS ) Continuing Growth Via M&A

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Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS ) Continuing Growth Via M&A Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS ) Continuing growth via M&A Banks SFG to acquire 59.15% stake in Orange Life Insurance; positive in the medium/long term Company Report On September 5 th , Shinhan Financial Group (SFG) announced that it would acquire September 6, 2018 48,500,000 shares (59.15% stake) of Orange Life Insurance (formerly ING Life Insurance) for W2.29tr, or W47,400 per share. The purpose of the acquisition is to strengthen non-bank operations, particularly the life insurance business, in light of Korea’s aging population. While the planned date of the acquisition has not been (Maintain) Buy confirmed, we think it will likely take place by the end of 1Q19. SFG issued hybrid securities worth W150bn (won) in April and another W963bn (won Target Price (12M, W) 59,000 and foreign currency combi ned) in August. The average financing rate was 5.02%. SFG’s double leverage ratio, a key indicator of the financial stability of financial holding Share Price (09/05/18, W) 42,450 companies, has fallen from 123% at end-2Q18 to 117% at end-August. Due to the latest acquisition, SFG’s doubl e leverage ratio will rise roughly 10%p to 128%, but this would Expected Return 39% still be below the 130% limit for Class 2 rating under the Management Status Evaluation scheme. NP (18F, Wbn) 3,403 The W47,400 per share purchase price equates to a 2019F P/B of 1.0x (ROE of 9.6%) and 2019 F P/E of 10.5x (net profit growth of 5.2%) based on Bloomberg consensus Consensus NP (18F, Wbn) 3,231 estimates. We do not view this as a high purchase price, given that SFG is gaining a EPS Growth (18F, %) 16.6 controlling stake. Our 2019-20 forecasts for SFG’s net profit attributable to controlling Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 13.8 interests are W3.49tr and W3.68tr, respectively. Based on SFG’s 59.15% stake and P/E (18F, x) 5.9 Orange Life Insurance’s net profit forecasts, the acquisition would add W219.7bn and Market P/E (18F, x) 8.9 W231.6bn, respectively, to SFG’s 2019-20 net profit attributable to controlling interests, or 6.3% of our 2019-20 forecasts. Because the equity increase resulting from the KOSPI 2,291.77 hybrid securities issuance has been reflected while the earnings effects of the Market Cap (Wbn) 20,130 acquisition have not, SFG’s ROE may temporarily decline. However, once earnings Shares Outstanding (mn) 474 effects are reflected, we project SFG to deliver ROE of 10% in 2019 and 9.8% in 2020. Free Float (%) 85.8 W200bn share repurchase announced Foreign Ownership (%) 69.5 Beta (12M) 0.78 SFG additionally disclosed that it had signed a trust agreement for a W200bn share th th 52-Week Low 41,450 repurchase that will last from September 10 , 2018 to September 9 , 2019. While t he share repurchase—which is intended to enhance shareholder value—may not be 52-Week High 53,400 significant in size, it does underscore SFG’s efforts to boost its shareholder value. In (%) 1M 6M 12M the longer run, we think SFG could use its own shares to acquire the remaining sta ke Absolute -1.4 -6.0 -13.3 in Orange Life Insurance. Relative -1.6 -2.6 -12.0 Maintain Buy and TP of W59,000 120 Shinhan Financial Group KOSPI From a medium/long-term perspective, we are encouraged by SFG’s strategy to 110 enhance its profitability and growth by diversifying its business portfolio and 100 geographical presence in response to low interest rates, low growth, and population 90 aging. We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W59,000 on SFG, given its 80 earnings stability, robust risk management, compelling valuation, and attractive 70 dividend yields. 60 8.17 12.17 4.18 8.18 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Fiscal year Ending 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Net interest inc. (Wbn) 6,693 7,205 7,843 8,521 8,877 9,295 [ Banks/Credit card ] Net non-interest inc. (Wbn) 1,786 1,577 1,341 1,624 1,558 1,562 Operating profit (Wbn) 2,973 3,109 3,829 4,715 4,818 5,077 Heather Kang +822 -3774 -1903 Net profit (Wbn) 2,367 2,775 2,918 3,403 3,491 3,677 [email protected] EPS (W) 4,878 5,767 6,153 7,177 7,361 7,755 EPS growth (%) 13.7 18.2 6.7 16.6 2.6 5.3 P/E (x) 8.7 7.4 6.9 5.9 5.8 5.5 P/PPOP (x) 5.0 4.7 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 P/B (x) 0.67 0.65 0.61 0.56 0.52 0.49 ROE (%) 7.9 9.0 9.1 9.9 9.4 9.2 Dividend yield (%) 2.8 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.4 4.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates September 6, 2018 Shinhan Financial Group Orange Life Insurance acquisition to strengthen non-bank, non-card businesses and support financial stability; downside to CET-1 ratio to be limited On September 5th, SFG announced that it will acquire 48,500,000 shares (59.15% stake) of Orange Life Insurance (formerly ING Life Insurance) for W2.29tr, or W47,400 per share. The purpose of the acquisition is to strengthen non-bank operations, particularly the life insurance business, in light of Korea’s aging population. SFG has relatively high exposure to the card business. In light of the current unfavorable regulatory conditions for the domestic card business, we are positive on the firm’s move to reduce its exposure to the banking and card businesses by beefing up its life insurance operations, which have so far had a relatively small contribution to company-wide profit. While the planned date of the acquisition has not been confirmed, we think it will likely take place by the end of 1Q19. SFG plans to take over Orange Life Insurance only with cash (without additional funding). SFG issued hybrid securities worth W150bn (won) in April and another W963bn (won and foreign currency combined) in August. The average financing rate was 5.02%. SFG’s double leverage ratio, a key indicator of the financial stability of financial holding companies, has fallen from 123% at end-2Q18 to 117% at end-August. Due to the latest acquisition, SFG’s double leverage ratio will rise roughly 10%p to 128%, but this would still be below the 130% limit for Class 2 rating under the Management Status Evaluation scheme. The acquisition is projected to drive down SFG’s common equity capital (CET-1) ratio (which stands at 13.02%, as of end-2Q18) by 66bps. However, we estimate the actual CET-1 ratio reduction to be around 40-50bps, given that the firm’s CET-1 ratio is likely to continue to rise through the actual acquisition date (sometime in 1H19). Table 1. Overview of SFG’s hybrid security issuance Annual interest expenses Issuance date Amount (Wbn) Interest rate (%) Maturity (dividends on hybrid securities) (Wbn) W 2015-06-25 199 4.38 2045-06-25 8.7 W 2017-09-15 135 3.77 - 5.1 W 2017-09-15 90 4.25 - 3.8 W 2018-04-13 135 4.08 - 5.5 W 2018-04-13 15 4.56 - 0.7 US$ 2018-08-13 563 5.875 - 33.1 W 2018-08-29 400 4.15 - 16.6 Note: For the aforementioned hybrid securities, SFG can opt for early redemption five or 10 years after the issuance, while the maturity can be extended based on the same terms; should the BOD agree not to pay dividends on common shares, interest on the securities will not be paid Source: SFG, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 September 6, 2018 Shinhan Financial Group Table 2. Financial holding companies’ financial structure stability grade based on quantitative indicators 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Debt ratio Below 30% Below 50% 50% and above 70% and above 100% and above Double leverage ratio Below 120% Below 130% 130% and above 150% and above 170% and above Source: FSS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 3. SFG: Changes in financial stability indicators Post -hybrid securities Post - hybrid securities (Wbn) End-2Q18 issuance in Aug. issuance and M&A Combined value of shareholdings in subsidiaries 25,733 25,733 28,032 Total debt 7,982 7,982 7,982 Total shareholders’ equity ex. regulatory reserve for 20,960 21,923 21,923 loan loss Debt ratio (%) 38.1 36.4 36.4 Double leverage ratio (%) 122.8 117.4 127.9 Source: SFG, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 4. SFG: Expected change in CET1 ratio (based on end-2Q18 figures) (Wtr) CET1 as of end-2Q18 (a) 28.4 Risk-weighted asset as of 2Q18 (b) 218.1 CET1 ratio (a)/(b) (%) 13.02 CET1 x 10% ① 2.8 Investments in Shinhan Life Insurance/BNP Paribas Cardif ② 1.6 Benefits in capital adequacy ratio calculation (not to be subtracted from CET1) 1.2 ③=①-② ④ Orange Life Insurance acquisition value (59.15% stake) 2.3 Subtraction from CET1 ⑤=④-③ 1.1 Application of risk weight ⑥=③ x 250% 3.1 CET1 (A)=(a)-⑤ 27.3 Risk-weighted asset (B)=(b)+ ⑥ 221.2 CET 1 ratio (A)/(B) (%) 12.36 Change in CET 1 ratio (%p) -0.66 Source: SFG, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 September 6, 2018 Shinhan Financial Group The W47,400 per share purchase price equates to a 2019F P/B of 1.0x (ROE of 9.6%) and 2019F P/E of 10.5x (net profit growth of 5.2%) based on Bloomberg consensus estimates.
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