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Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS ) Steadily Marching Forward

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Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS ) Steadily Marching Forward Shinhan Financial Group (055550 KS ) Steadily marching forward Banks 4Q19 review: Net profit attributable to controlling interests of W507.5bn Results Comment For 4Q19, Shinhan Financial Group (SFG) announced net profit attributable to February 6, 2020 controlling interests of W507.5bn (-1.1% YoY, -48.3% QoQ), missing our estimate (W573.5bn) and the consensus (W582.8bn based on FnGuide) by 11-13%. Core income was better than our expectation, but other non-interest losses and non-operating expenses were larger. Major one-off items in the quarter included: 1) W150bn in non- operating expenses caused by changes in the amortization schedule of intangible (Maintain) Buy assets related to city government funds; 2) W120bn in expenses due to the execution of a massive early retirement program (implemented once every two years ); 3) W14bn Target Price (12M, W) 54,000 in reversals of provisions; and 4) W57bn in total return swap impairments (non- interest) at Shinhan Investment related to the redemption suspension of Lime Asset Share Price (02/05/20, W) 39,250 Management’s funds. Minus these one-off i tems, we estimate underlying net profit was around W700bn. Expected Return 38% For the full year, the non-bank contribution to net profit increased to 34% (from 31% in 2018), as bank net profit rose 2% YoY, while non-bank net profit grew 15% YoY . Group NP (19F, Wbn) 3,403 interest income and non-interest income grew 5% and 33% YoY, respectively. Group Consensus NP (19F, Wbn) 3,483 domestic net profit gained 6% YoY, while global net profit expanded 23% YoY to W397.9bn. Group IB (GIB) operating profit before costs grew robustly to W679.4bn EPS Growth (19F, %) 7.8 (+42% YoY), group cross-selling ratio increased to 40.2% (+0.5%p YoY), and operating Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -34.7 income from the digital (online) platform totaled W1.38tr (+16% YoY). P/E (19F, x) 5.5 Market P/E (19F, x) 15.1 Higher-than-expected 2019 DPS of W1,850 KOSPI 2,165.63 For 2019, SFG’s board declared a dividend of W1,850 per share (vs. W1,600 for 2018), which was higher than our expectation (W1,800) and the Bloomberg consensus Market Cap (Wbn) 18,612 (W1,796). This implies a dividend yield of 4.7% based on the current share price (vs. Shares Outstanding (mn) 492 4.1% based on the end-2019 share price). Total dividend payout comes to 26.0% (25.1% Free Float (%) 82.2 for common shares), up from 23.9% in 2018 . While dividend yield lags behind those of Foreign Ownership (%) 64.7 peers, we find it positive that the group has increased its dividend payout to enhance Beta (12M) 0.85 shareholder value, even as its capital ratios have come down due to bus iness/income 52-Week Low 38,900 diversification, M&As to secure future growth engines, and overseas expansion. 52-Week High 48,000 Stable profits to continue in 2020; Maintain Buy and TP of W54,000 (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -8.2 -8.8 -9.8 Amid falling bond yields and macro concerns, t he banking sector is currently trading at Relative -7.7 -18.0 -8.2 valuations near financial crisis levels. Despite a decline in net interest margin (NIM), we expect SFG’s profit to grow, backed by the full ownership of Orange Life Insurance, a 120 Shinhan Financial Group well-diversified business portfolio, and growth of the global business. SFG has KOSPI 110 rec orded steady profit growth even during times of falling interest rates, and we 100 believe the group will continue to do so in 2020-21. 90 80 70 1.19 5.19 9.19 1.20 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Fiscal year-end 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19P 12/20F 12/21F Net interest inc. (Wbn) 7,205 7,843 8,580 9,720 9,837 10,113 [ Banks/Credit Cards ] Net non-interest inc. (Wbn) 1,577 1,341 1,399 1,415 1,748 1,859 Operating profit (Wbn) 3,109 3,829 4,499 5,049 5,152 5,315 Heather Kang +822 -3774 -1903 Net profit (Wbn) 2,775 2,918 3,157 3,403 3,524 3,614 [email protected] EPS (W) 5,767 6,153 6,657 7,177 7,331 7,350 EPS growth (%) 18.2 6.7 8.2 7.8 2.1 0.3 P/E (x) 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 P/PPOP (x) 4.4 4.3 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 P/B (x) 0.60 0.57 0.52 0.48 0.45 0.42 ROE (%) 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.1 Dividend yield (%) 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates February 6, 2020 Shinhan Financial Group Figure 1. 2020 SMART project major achievements (IR presentation) Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. Earnings breakdown by subsidiary, 2018 (before Figure 3. Earnings breakdown by subsidiary, 2019 (before reflecting consolidation adjustments and other factors) reflecting consolidation adjustments and other factors) Shinhan Capital Orange Life Shinhan Life Shinhan Capital 3.1% Other Insurance Insurance 3.5% 1.4% Shinhan Life 4.5% Other 3.9% Insurance 1.6% Shinhan 3.5% Investment Shinhan 7.5% Investment 6.2% Shinhan Card 15.5% Shinhan Card 14.3% Banking Banking 66.0% 68.6% Net profit Ownership Net profit Net profit Ownership Net profit (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (%) (a) (b) (a) x (b) (a) (b) (a) x (b) Banking 2,306.4 2,298.7 68.6 Banking 2,357.1 2,350.2 66.0 Shinhan Bank 2,279.0 100.0 2,279.0 68.0 Shinhan Bank 2,329.2 100.0 2,329.2 65.4 Jeju Bank 27.4 71.9 19.7 0.6 Jeju Bank 27.9 75.3 21.0 0.6 Non-banking 1,057.4 1,050.7 31.4 Non-banking 1,337.2 1,212.6 34.0 Shinhan Card 508.8 100.0 508.8 14.3 Shinhan Card 519.4 100.0 519.4 15.5 Shinhan Investment 220.8 100.0 220.8 6.2 Shinhan Investment 251.3 100.0 251.3 7.5 Shinhan Life Insurance 123.9 100.0 123.9 3.5 Shinhan Life Insurance 131.0 100.0 131.0 3.9 Orange Life Insurance 271.5 59.2 162.1 4.5 Shinhan BNP Paribas 18.9 65.0 12.3 0.4 Shinhan BNP Paribas 23.1 65.0 15.0 0.4 Shinhan Capital 103.4 100.0 103.4 3.1 Shinhan Capital 126.0 100.0 126.0 3.5 Shinhan Savings Bank 19.4 100.0 19.4 0.6 Shinhan Savings Bank 23.1 100.0 23.1 0.6 Shinhan DS 1.3 100.0 1.3 0.0 Asia Trust 17.8 60.0 10.7 0.3 Shinhan AITAS 8.5 99.8 8.4 0.3 Shinhan DS 2.1 100.0 2.1 0.1 Shinhan Credit Information 1.4 100.0 1.4 0.0 Shinhan AITAS 10.8 99.8 10.8 0.3 Shinhan Alternative Investment -0.8 100.0 -0.8 0.0 Shinhan Credit Information 0.5 100.0 0.5 0.0 Shinhan REITs Management 3.6 100.0 3.6 0.1 Shinhan Alternative Investment 2.1 100.0 2.1 0.1 Total 3,363.8 3,349.4 100 Shinhan REITs Management 7.4 100.0 7.4 0.2 Shinhan AI -0.7 100.0 -0.7 0.0 Total 3,694.3 3,562.8 100 Note: Jeju Bank profit contributions are based on ownership percentages of 68.9% Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research (before paid-in capital increase) and 71.9% (after paid-in capital increase). Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 February 6, 2020 Shinhan Financial Group Table 1. 4Q19 review YoY chg. QoQ chg. (Wbn) 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19P (%, %p) (%,%p) Net interest income 2,121.4 2,171.8 2,228.1 2,381.5 2,398.9 2,472.7 2,466.6 10.7 -0.2 Net fee & commission income 513.3 479.4 463.7 479.9 609.3 530.3 522.2 12.6 -1.5 Net other income -1.6 -214.6 -225.2 -131.8 -87.6 -138.1 -369.3 RR RR Total net operating income 2,633.1 2,436.6 2,466.5 2,729.5 2,920.5 2,864.9 2,619.5 6.2 -8.6 SG&A expenses 1,126.4 1,089.2 1,439.0 1,168.4 1,236.3 1,225.6 1,504.3 4.5 22.7 PPOP 1,506.7 1,347.4 1,027.5 1,561.2 1,684.2 1,639.2 1,115.2 8.5 -32.0 Provisions 173.8 214.8 170.6 250.8 274.9 221.3 203.8 19.4 -7.9 Operating profit 1,332.9 1,132.6 856.9 1,310.3 1,409.3 1,417.9 911.4 6.4 -35.7 Non-operating income -24.1 33.7 -59.4 12.2 4.8 -1.6 -152.8 RR RR Pretax profit 1,308.8 1,166.3 797.5 1,322.5 1,414.0 1,416.3 758.6 -4.9 -46.4 Net profit (controlling interests) 938.1 847.8 513.3 918.4 996.1 981.6 507.5 -1.1 -48.3 Total assets 453,268 457,709 459,601 513,865 530,149 546,005 552,443 20.2 1.2 Total loans & receivables 287,921 292,360 299,609 307,960 311,472 317,058 323,245 7.9 2.0 Won-denominated loans (bank) 201,294 205,188 209,568 215,007 219,230 220,737 225,002 7.4 1.9 Total credit 276,024 281,369 287,918 295,961 302,193 305,648 312,243 8.4 2.2 Total deposits 259,911 260,651 265,000 273,848 280,382 284,142 297,874 12.4 4.8 Total shareholders' equity 34,299 36,017 36,651 38,594 40,737 41,757 41,932 14.4 0.4 (%) NIM (bank) 1.63 1.62 1.61 1.61 1.58 1.53 1.46 -0.15 -0.07 Cost-to-income ratio 42.8 44.7 58.3 42.8 42.3 42.8 57.4 -0.9 14.6 NPL (substandard & below) ratio 0.59 0.55 0.53 0.54 0.59 0.60 0.52 0.00 -0.07 NPL coverage ratio 276.4 290.7 301.8 297.2 277.6 265.4 291.5 -10.3 26.0 RoA 0.21 0.19 0.11 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.09 -0.02 -0.09 RoE 2.84 2.46 1.45 2.55 2.68 2.55 1.30 -0.15 -1.25 Credit cost ratio 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.01 -0.01 BIS ratio 14.87 15.25 14.87 14.02 14.26 14.17 13.96 -0.91 -0.21 Tier 1 ratio 13.45 13.79 13.42 12.67 12.84 12.61 12.40 -1.02 -0.21 CET1 ratio 13.04 12.96 12.55 11.76 11.57 11.40 11.17 -1.37 -0.22 Note: ROA, ROE, and credit cost data are non-annualized.
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